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GBP/USD rises above 1.3200 as the dollar weakens after the US jobs report
The GBP/USD exchange rate has risen past 1.3200 due to weak US jobs data, reversing its earlier downward trend. The Pound gained momentum as the US Dollar weakened following disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) results.
Earlier, during European trading, the Pound fell to about 1.3160, its lowest level in nearly 11 weeks against the Dollar. After the US employment data was released, traders reacted quickly, raising expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England.
Gold stabilizes around $3,350 after disappointing US employment figures, boosting rate cut prospects
Trade Concerns and Tariffs
President Trump’s recent executive order introduced tariffs on imports from nearly 70 countries, raising trade worries and impacting the US Dollar. The tariffs range from 10% to 41%, with the possibility of even higher rates for significant trading partners like China if talks do not succeed. After the non-farm payroll (NFP) report, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield around 4.24%. This drop makes holding Gold more attractive. Gold is seen as a safe haven, especially during times of geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability. Central banks in emerging economies, like China and India, are still increasing their Gold reserves. The weak jobs report and soaring gold prices indicate strong potential for bullish strategies in precious metals. The market now expects a high chance of a Fed rate cut in September, which usually weakens the dollar and drives up gold prices. Therefore, we should prepare for more gains in gold over the coming weeks. Supporting this outlook, recent data shows that the Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the important level of 95.00 for the first time in over a year. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from mid-July 2025 was slightly lower than expected, giving the Fed more reasons to ease monetary policy. These factors create a strong environment for non-yielding assets like gold.Gold Derivative Strategy
We believe buying call options on gold futures or gold-backed ETFs is the best way to take advantage of this trend. With the potential for a significant price move after the September Fed meeting, we are considering call options with strike prices of $3,400 and $3,500 for October and November 2025 expirations. This strategy allows us to profit from continued gains while keeping our risks defined. This situation feels similar to the 2019-2020 period, when the Federal Reserve began cutting rates due to trade war fears. Back then, we saw gold rise over 30%. The current mix of a slowing US economy and renewed global trade tensions offers a similar strong chance for rising gold prices. The drop in Treasury yields strengthens our bullish outlook, as the 10-year yield at 4.24% significantly lowers the cost of holding gold. With yields falling, large institutional investors are more likely to move into gold as a safe-haven asset. We expect this trend to persist as expectations for rate cuts grow. Gold market volatility has increased, making options pricier. Therefore, we should also think about bull call spreads to reduce our initial costs. This strategy means buying a call option at a lower strike price while selling another call at a higher strike price. This caps our potential gains but lowers our upfront premium. Finally, strong institutional demand helps support the market. According to World Gold Council data for the second quarter of 2025, central banks, led by China and Turkey, added a net 270 metric tons to their reserves. This consistent buying shows that major global players are positioning themselves for longer-term dollar weakness and geopolitical risks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bostic from the Fed recognizes job market challenges as inflation continues to be a major concern
Recent US Nonfarm Payrolls data, along with revisions, have sparked discussions about interest rates at the Federal Reserve. There are ongoing worries about inflation, especially with recent tariff hikes.
The labor market seems to be slowing down from its earlier strong performance, raising questions about future hiring trends. Still, one interest rate cut is expected by the end of the year.
Risks and Uncertainties
Current risks related to inflation and employment are starting to balance out. However, uncertainties linger, making Federal Reserve policy discussions challenging. Tariffs are complicated and could significantly impact pricing, complicating responses from the Federal Reserve. The environment is tough, with risks connected to both job growth and inflation. There’s an active debate about how restrictive the Fed’s current policy is. Future policies may shift based on new data in the coming months.Market Volatility and Strategy
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report from July 2025 shows only 160,000 new jobs, falling short of expectations. This slowdown in the labor market puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot, balancing job market weaknesses and persistent inflation. We should brace for increased market volatility in the upcoming weeks. Tariff concerns from last quarter are pushing core CPI up to around 3.1% year-over-year, significantly above the Fed’s target and complicating any interest rate cut decisions. The mixed signals from a weakening job market and stubborn prices create a delicate balance. Given this situation, we suggest that traders focus on strategies that capitalize on price swings rather than predict a specific direction. The VIX, which measures expected volatility, has risen from early 2025 lows to around 18, indicating growing uncertainty. Buying options on major indices could be a smart tactic for the months ahead. Futures markets currently show about a 65% chance of one rate cut by the December 2025 meeting, but timing remains uncertain. This unpredictability about whether a cut will happen in September, November, or December presents its own trading opportunity. Considering options on interest rate futures might be wise as expectations shift leading up to the Fed’s next meeting. Looking back at 2018-2019, we saw the Fed quickly move from raising to cutting rates as economic data worsened, highlighting how fast policy can change. This historical context suggests holding strong beliefs about the future is risky. Flexibility is more valuable than being tied to one possible outcome. As a result, we are also monitoring options on long-duration bond ETFs. If employment data continues to weaken and prompts the Fed to act sooner than expected, call options on these assets would likely perform well. This offers a way to prepare for an unexpected dovish shift from the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/GBP rises to 0.8710 due to weak US job figures and focus on BoE decision
The EUR/GBP rose to 0.8711 following a disappointing US jobs report and talks of a possible Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. In July, the US economy added just 73,000 jobs, and previous months’ numbers were revised down by 258,000, raising concerns about stagflation.
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number fell short of expectations, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.2%. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Eurozone’s inflation remained steady at 2.4% year-over-year, with core inflation at 2%, slightly beating forecasts.
UK Manufacturing PMI And BoE Rate Cut
The UK’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0, leading to increased speculation about a 25-basis point rate cut by the BoE next week. The EUR/GBP has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8661, with potential to reach the yearly high of 0.8757 if this momentum persists. The NFP figures affect US monetary policy by showing employment trends that influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Generally, higher NFP numbers strengthen the US Dollar, while lower figures can harm both the currency and gold prices. Looking at data from August 2, 2025, the disappointing US jobs report has changed the outlook for the coming weeks drastically. The shockingly low addition of 73,000 jobs in July, alongside downward revisions, signals a slowing US economy. This weakens the case for a robust US Dollar and raises stagflation worries. In the UK, we are now monitoring the possibility of a BoE interest rate cut as soon as next week. The PMI drop to 48.0 indicates three months of contraction, a key signal that the BoE often responds to in order to support the economy. Current market data suggests an 85% chance of a 25-basis point cut, which could negatively impact the Pound.Euro’s Relative Strength
In contrast, the Euro is showing strength compared to the other currencies, making it an appealing asset. With stable Eurozone inflation and steady core inflation, the European Central Bank does not seem likely to cut rates soon. This policy gap between a potentially cutting BoE and a steady ECB explains why the EUR/GBP pair is strengthening. We advise derivative traders to prepare for more upside in EUR/GBP, as the pair has broken through important technical levels. Buying call options with a strike price near the yearly high of 0.8757 could be a smart move to take advantage of this expected trend. The growing certainty of a BoE rate cut makes this a high-confidence strategy. The weak US nonfarm payrolls data also impacts markets beyond just foreign exchange. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a sharp rise in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2025. This scenario of a weakening dollar and falling interest rate expectations could favor assets like gold. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Bostic from the Fed recognizes job market challenges amid ongoing inflation concerns
Recent data on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, including revisions, has sparked a conversation about the Federal Reserve’s interest rates. Inflation remains a significant concern, especially due to recent tariff increases.
The labor market is showing signs of slowing down compared to its previous strong performance, raising questions about future hiring. Nonetheless, experts still expect at least one rate cut by the end of the year.
Risks and Uncertainties
Currently, the risks surrounding inflation and employment seem to be stabilizing. However, uncertainties continue to present challenges for discussions on Federal Reserve policy. The complex nature of tariffs can greatly impact pricing, making Federal Reserve responses more complicated. The situation is difficult, with risks associated with both employment and inflation mandates. There is an ongoing debate about whether the Fed’s policies are too restrictive. Future policies may shift as new data emerges in the coming months.Market Volatility and Strategy
The most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report from July 2025 shows only 160,000 new jobs, which is below expectations. This slowdown in the labor market puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot as it balances these weaknesses against ongoing inflation concerns. We should expect increased market volatility in the next few weeks. Inflation worries are being heightened by the tariffs introduced last quarter, which keep core CPI around 3.1% year-over-year—well above the Fed’s target—and complicate any interest rate cuts. The mixed signals from a declining job market and persistent prices create a tense situation. Given this deadlock, traders should opt for strategies that take advantage of price fluctuations rather than betting on a specific direction. The VIX, which measures expected volatility, has risen from its early 2025 lows to about 18, indicating increased uncertainty. Buying options on major indices could be a smart way to navigate the upcoming months. Futures markets currently show about a 65% chance of a rate cut by the December 2025 meeting, but the timing is still uncertain. This ambiguity over whether a cut will happen in September, November, or December presents a trading opportunity. We should consider options on interest rate futures to take advantage of the changing expectations surrounding the Fed’s next meeting. Looking back at 2018-2019, we saw how quickly the Fed shifted from raising rates to cutting them as economic data weakened. This historical example suggests that sticking to strong directional beliefs now could be risky. Being flexible and adaptable is more beneficial than being locked into one outcome. We are also keeping an eye on options for long-duration bond ETFs. If employment data weakens further and pushes the Fed to act sooner than expected, call options on these ETFs could perform well, allowing us to position for an unexpected dovish shift from the central bank. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/GBP rises to 0.8710 following disappointing US job figures and focus on the BoE’s decision
The EUR/GBP rose to 0.8711 after a disappointing US jobs report and talks of a possible Bank of England rate cut. In July, the US economy added just 73,000 jobs, and previous months’ figures were revised down by 258,000. This situation has increased fears of “stagflation.”
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number was lower than expected, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.2%. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Eurozone’s inflation remained stable at 2.4% year-over-year, with core inflation at 2% year-over-year, slightly better than predicted.
UK Manufacturing PMI and BoE Rate Cut
The UK’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, raising expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) next week. The EUR/GBP passed the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8661, showing potential for gains towards the year-to-date high of 0.8757 if the positive trend continues. Nonfarm Payrolls influence US monetary policy by reflecting job growth and shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate choices. Generally, higher NFP figures strengthen the US Dollar, while lower numbers can negatively impact the currency and gold prices. As of August 2nd, 2025, today’s weak US jobs report has changed the outlook for the coming weeks. The surprisingly low addition of 73,000 jobs in July, combined with downward adjustments, suggests a stalling US economy. This weakens the argument for a strong US Dollar and raises stagflation worries. In the UK, we are now cautious, expecting a Bank of England interest rate cut possibly next week. The Manufacturing PMI’s dip to 48.0 indicates the third month of contraction, a sign that the BoE typically responds to in order to support the economy. Current market data shows that traders estimate an 85% chance for a 25-basis point cut, which would pressure the Pound.Euro’s Relative Strength
In contrast, the Euro seems to be the strongest of the three currencies, making it appealing. With Eurozone inflation steady and core inflation stable, the European Central Bank shows no signs of cutting rates soon. This difference in monetary policy between a potentially cutting BoE and a stable ECB is a key reason for the strength in the EUR/GBP pair. We think traders should prepare for further EUR/GBP gains, as the pair has broken through important technical levels. Buying call options with a strike price near the year-to-date high of 0.8757 could be a smart way to take advantage of the expected upward trend. The likelihood of a BoE rate cut makes this a strong trade opportunity. The weak US nonfarm payroll data also has wider implications beyond the foreign exchange market. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2025. This weakening dollar and decreasing interest rate expectations could also benefit assets like gold. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.New Zealand dollar climbs from two-month low against US dollar despite disappointing NFP results
The New Zealand Dollar increased in value after the US Dollar weakened due to disappointing job numbers for July. NZD/USD traded about 0.17% higher, reaching around 0.5900, bouncing back from a low of 0.5856, but it is still on track for a weekly loss.
The US Dollar Index, which compares the Dollar to six major currencies, fell from 100.26 to nearly 98.86. The July Nonfarm Payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs, much lower than the expected 110,000, with previous months’ data being revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs.
The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, indicating a slowing job market. Wage growth remained steady, with Average Hourly Earnings rising by 0.3% monthly and 3.9% annually. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0, showing further contraction in the sector.
Consumer sentiment also declined, as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 61.7, below the expected 62.0. Following the NFP report, the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 82%, up from 37%, despite cautious comments from Fed officials.
The New Zealand Dollar gained strength against the US Dollar and showed mixed results against other major currencies like the EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, and CHF.
The downturn in the US job market indicates that the strength of the US Dollar is fading. The disappointing July NFP report is significant, reshaping expectations for the Federal Reserve. This appears to mark the start of a new trend, rather than just a one-day fluctuation.
For those looking to take advantage of this situation, we recommend positioning for a higher NZD/USD exchange rate. Buying call options on NZD/USD that expire in September 2025 could be beneficial if the pair continues to rise, with risk limited to the premium paid. We view the recent rise above 0.5900 as a crucial sign, aiming for the key level of 0.6000.
This situation reminds us of the Fed’s policy change in 2019, when weak economic data led to a shift from rate hikes to cuts. Leading up to the first rate cut in July 2019, the US Dollar Index declined as markets anticipated the move. We expect a similar trend of dollar weakness to unfold ahead of the Fed meeting in September 2025.
The market’s pricing supports this view. Current Fed funds futures indicate an 82% chance of a rate cut in September, showing strong consensus. Historically, the CME FedWatch Tool has been a reliable indicator, and when such high probabilities emerge, the Federal Reserve seldom disappoints.
Additionally, we must consider the differing policies between central banks. While the Fed is expected to ease, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is facing a persistent annual inflation rate of 4.4% as of Q2 2025. This suggests the RBNZ will likely slow down on rate cuts, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar against the US Dollar.
Given the market’s significant reaction, implied volatility in currency options has likely risen. This creates an opportunity for those willing to take a different approach, like selling out-of-the-money put options on the NZD/USD pair. This strategy allows us to earn premium income, betting that the pair is unlikely to reverse its gains and fall significantly before the September meeting.
Beth Hammack notes that the job market is balanced but needs to be monitored following July’s disappointing data.
The US labor market struggled in July, adding only 73,000 jobs, much lower than the projected 110,000. Job numbers for May and June were also revised down, with a total drop of 258,000 jobs from previous reports.
Despite these changes, the job market is still considered stable. However, worries about inflation remain, which could influence economic decisions. As inflation continues to pressurize, there are concerns that tariffs may raise prices and further weaken the job market as the year ends.
Following the job market news, the US Dollar Index dropped 1.2% to 98.85. This decrease highlights the complexities of monetary policy decisions, with more updates coming before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
The Federal Reserve shapes the US economy using monetary policy aimed at stabilizing prices and ensuring full employment. It alters interest rates based on employment and inflation data, which impacts the value of the US Dollar. The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year to assess the economy and make decisions accordingly.
Given the disappointing July jobs report and the downward revisions for May and June, the US economy appears to be slowing more than we previously thought. This downturn in the job market suggests a more cautious economic outlook in the coming weeks, prompting us to adjust our strategies for a potential downturn.
The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough spot ahead of the September meeting. Recent data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 remains high at 3.5% annually, yet the weak job numbers argue against raising interest rates further. We see a rising chance that the Fed might need to cut rates to bolster the job market despite inflation concerns.
This outlook is impacting currency markets, where the US Dollar Index has already dropped. We expect this trend to continue as traders anticipate a more dovish Federal Reserve. Therefore, we are considering derivative strategies that could benefit from a declining dollar, such as purchasing put options on major dollar ETFs.
The mix of slowing growth and ongoing inflation is likely to cause market volatility. We experienced similar sharp market changes in 2023 when the Fed faced the same challenges. We believe buying options on the VIX index is a smart way to protect against the uncertainty expected before the next Fed decision.
Based on market reactions, we are also focusing on interest-rate-sensitive assets. As the likelihood of a rate cut rises, futures contracts on long-term US Treasury bonds are becoming more appealing. Their prices should increase if the market continues to anticipate lower interest rates.
US Dollar weakens while Swiss Franc strengthens after July Nonfarm Payrolls report
The Swiss Franc (CHF) rose against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report. The USD/CHF pair dropped nearly 1.0%, trading around 0.8045, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 100.26 to 99.30.
In July, the US economy added only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 110,000, marking the weakest performance of the year. Revised June figures showed just 14,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate went up to 4.2%, while wage growth stayed steady, increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year.
Mixed Manufacturing Figures
Manufacturing data was mixed. The S&P Global PMI slightly rose to 49.8, but ISM PMI dropped to 48.0, indicating a continued downturn. As a result, the chances of a rate cut in September jumped to 82.1%, signaling changing expectations. New US tariffs on Swiss exports, totaling 39%, have raised concerns for key Swiss sectors like luxury watches and machinery. Switzerland’s economy heavily relies on exports, especially to the EU. While not major commodity exporters, Switzerland’s reputation as a safe haven ties it closely to gold and oil prices. Today’s weak US employment report dealt a significant blow to the Dollar. The meager addition of 73,000 jobs suggests a slowdown, pulling the USD/CHF pair down towards 0.8045. This starkly contrasts with the job growth of over 150,000 per month throughout 2024. This disappointing data has dramatically changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The likelihood of a rate cut in September has surged to over 82%, a sharp shift from the rate hikes that were in place until late 2023. This reinforces a bearish outlook for the US Dollar in the upcoming weeks.Rising Market Uncertainty
Nevertheless, we must consider the new challenge for the Swiss Franc. The announced 39% US tariff directly affects major Swiss sectors critical to the economy. In 2024, Swiss exports of watches and machinery to the US were valued at more than $15 billion, making this a significant threat. This creates a complex situation where the Dollar is weakening, but the Franc’s export strength is under pressure. Such circumstances can lead to volatility rather than a clear trend. Implied volatility on USD/CHF options has already increased by 20% in the last 24 hours, indicating market uncertainty. Given this environment, buying options to take advantage of potential price swings may be wiser than simply betting on direction with futures. A long straddle strategy, which involves purchasing both a call and a put option at the same strike price, could be effective here. This strategy benefits from large price movements in either direction, leveraging the anticipated volatility. We should also remember that the Franc often acts as a safe haven, drawing in capital during times of global uncertainty, which can push its value up. Historically, during crisis periods like the European debt crisis over a decade ago, significant CHF strength prompted the Swiss National Bank to intervene. This adds complexity and the possibility of sudden, sharp reversals. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The S&P 500 fell sharply from its recent high, raising concerns about the rally’s sustainability.
The S&P 500 dropped by 0.37%, closing lower after hitting a record high of 6,427.02. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report showed an increase of 73,000, but this was below the expected 106,000. As a result, a 0.9% decline is anticipated when the market opens.
Currently, 40.3% of individual investors are feeling optimistic, while 33.0% have a negative outlook. S&P 500 futures are trading above 6,300, facing resistance around 6,350 and support between 6,250 and 6,300.
