Insights 
VT 
CFTC reports S&P 500 NC net positions of -$163.2K, down from -$168.5K
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports that S&P 500 net positions are at $-163.2K, an improvement from $-168.5K. This reflects a change in trader sentiment for this popular stock market index.
In the currency markets, EUR/USD has climbed past 1.1550, supported by weak US employment and manufacturing data. Similarly, GBP/USD is now above 1.3250 after a six-day slump due to these same economic indicators.
Precious metals are gaining traction as gold hits a weekly high near $3,350, benefiting from falling US Treasury yields. This trend follows a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies after disappointing employment figures.
In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin and some altcoins are struggling despite July’s all-time highs. Bitcoin has dropped below $115,000 as market pressures grow, raising concerns about more potential declines.
The euro area’s economy is showing unexpected strength, helped by agreements between the EU and US, along with increased spending in Germany. However, there might still be a chance for a rate cut later this year or early 2026, depending on wage developments.
The recent changes in S&P 500 net positions indicate that while overall sentiment remains bearish, there is some easing of pressure. Moving from $-168.5K to $-163.2K suggests that short sellers are taking profits after the index’s late July decline. We may want to sell out-of-the-money puts to earn premium, betting that the market has found a temporary base thanks to the weak economic data.
The US dollar is weakening significantly after July 2025’s non-farm payroll report showed only 95,000 jobs added, far below the expected 180,000. This disappointing employment data, along with a manufacturing PMI that dropped to 48.5, supports strength in other currencies. We think buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD call options is a smart way to capitalize on this dollar weakness in the coming weeks.
Gold is behaving as expected, surpassing $3,350 as US 10-year Treasury yields fell from 4.1% to 3.8% this past week. This movement resembles what we saw in late 2023 when fears about the Fed’s policies drove investors towards gold. We should consider adding to long gold futures positions, aiming for the $3,400 level if yields stay low.
In the crypto market, we see a typical “risk-off” response even with a weaker dollar, as traders cash out profits after the July 2025 highs. Bitcoin’s fall below $115,000 suggests that during times of economic uncertainty, money tends to flow into traditional safe havens like gold rather than digital assets. We should remain cautious and think about buying protective puts for our Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings.
The euro area’s surprising economic resilience makes the euro particularly appealing against the dollar right now. The recent EU-US trade agreements have provided a notable boost, contrasting with the slowdown in the US. While we’re optimistic about the euro for now, we need to monitor upcoming wage growth data, as any weakness there could lead to discussions about an ECB rate cut for late 2025.
CFTC’s gold net positions in the US drop to $223.6K from $253K
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has noted a drop in gold net positions in the U.S., falling to $223.6K from $253K. This information is important for understanding trends in the gold market and recent trading activities.
In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD rose above 1.1550 after weaker than expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI data led to increased selling of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, GBP/USD bounced back, trading above 1.3250 due to disappointing U.S. economic reports.
Gold Market Dynamics
The gold market experienced an upswing, with prices hitting a weekly high of around $3,350. This increase was linked to dropping U.S. Treasury bond yields, leading investors to rethink the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates after weak payroll numbers. In the cryptocurrency market, strong selling pressure returned after a bullish July, where Bitcoin and several altcoins saw significant gains. Bitcoin prices fell below $115,000 as sellers targeted support at $112,000, resulting in rising liquidations. In the Eurozone, economic resilience surprised many, supported by the EU-U.S. deal and increased German spending. However, there are still risks of a potential rate cut, depending on future wage trends and economic indicators. Gold prices have risen to around $3,350 an ounce, yet large speculators have reduced their net long positions to $223.6K. This difference suggests that while the market reacts to weak U.S. economic data, some savvy investors might be taking profits at these peaks. We’ll keep an eye on whether this rally can keep going or if it becomes a bull trap.Dollar Weakness And Opportunities
The U.S. dollar is facing significant challenges after the July 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report showed only 95,000 new jobs, far less than the expected 180,000. As a result, the market has raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Fed funds futures now indicate a 55% chance, up from just 20% last week. We can expect further dollar weakness against major currencies in the coming weeks. With the dollar weakening, there are opportunities to go long on the euro and the pound. The EUR/USD breaking above 1.1550 is a strong bullish sign, although we need to be cautious about a potential rate cut in the Eurozone, which could limit gains if upcoming wage data disappoints. The outlook for GBP/USD above 1.3250 seems clearer, making it a potentially better trade as we prepare for a softer dollar. In the crypto market, momentum has shifted significantly after a strong July. Bitcoin has fallen below $115,000, with over $500 million in leveraged long positions liquidated in just 48 hours. This aggressive selling is reminiscent of sharp pullbacks seen during the 2024 market cycle, suggesting we should be careful and wait for support at $112,000 to hold before considering new investments. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Net positions for GBP NC in the UK changed from £0.6K to £-12K.
The net positions for GBP have fallen to £-12K, down from £0.6K previously. This indicates a weaker outlook for the British currency in the market.
EUR/USD jumped over 1.1550 due to disappointing US employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. This trend shows the Euro gaining strength while the US Dollar faces pressure at the week’s end.
Reversal In GBP/USD
GBP/USD turned positive above 1.3250 after a six-day decline. The drop in US Nonfarm Payrolls and Manufacturing PMI data played a key role in this turnaround. Gold prices reached a weekly high of about $3,350, boosted by lower US Treasury bond yields. This suggests that the market is reassessing the Fed’s rate outlook. In cryptocurrency news, Bitcoin fell below $115,000 after a strong July. Investors are nervous due to tough market conditions and possible downturns in August. The euro area’s economy is holding strong, supported by an EU-US deal and increased spending in Germany. Even though there are risks of rate cuts later on, indicators point to economic resilience.Weak Sentiment For The British Pound
With net short positions on the British Pound now at -£12K, this is a notable change from last week, pointing to weak sentiment for Sterling. We haven’t seen such bearishness since the economic uncertainties of late 2024. The recent rise in GBP/USD above 1.3250 likely stems from dollar weakness rather than any real strength in the pound. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report was disappointing, showing just 95,000 jobs instead of the expected 180,000. This report heavily influences current market sentiment. As a result, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end has surged to over 60%, a major leap from just 35% last week. This makes shorting the dollar against stronger currencies an appealing strategy for the coming weeks. With the dollar weakening, the Euro stands as a key winner, especially with EUR/USD surpassing the 1.1550 resistance level. Recent data showing Eurozone Q2 GDP growth of 0.5%, better than expected, supports this view of underlying economic strength. We might explore call options on EUR/USD to take advantage of potential further gains. Gold’s rise to $3,350 an ounce can be linked to the US 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 3.0% for the first time in six months. This shift indicates a move toward safe assets and a reevaluation of interest rate expectations. As long as yields remain low, gold is likely to keep attracting buyers, possibly retesting earlier highs. Bitcoin’s decline below $115,000 could signal the end of the summer rally, so we should tread carefully. Historically, August has often been a month of correction for Bitcoin after strong summer performances, a trend that seems to be repeating. Rising selling volume suggests that traders are taking profits, so protective puts or reducing long exposure might be wise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Net positions for Australia’s CFTC AUD NC were $-78.1K, down from $-81.3K.
The latest data from the Australian Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that net positions for the AUD are now at -78.1k, an improvement from -81.3k. This slight change is a positive sign.
In currency news, the EUR/USD has risen above 1.1550, aided by disappointing employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US. The GBP/USD also climbed over 1.3250 after a rebound due to weak US job figures.
Gold prices hit weekly highs near $3,350 as US Treasury bond yields dropped, prompting a rethink of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans. This change boosted the value of XAU/USD.
On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market is facing difficulties, even after a strong July. Bitcoin fell below $115,000, with sellers hoping for support around $112,000 due to rising liquidation levels.
The euro area’s economy remains stable, supported by the EU-US agreement and increased spending in Germany. However, there are still concerns about a potential interest rate cut, making wage trends important to watch.
Traders in the EUR/USD market should look for brokers that offer competitive spreads and quick execution to navigate the Forex market effectively.
Due to weak US job data, the dollar is expected to weaken in the upcoming weeks. The Non-Farm Payrolls report from July 2025 showed only 95,000 jobs added, much lower than the expected 180,000. This supports the idea of attractive long positions in pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
With this clear trend, buying near-term call options on EUR/USD seems wise, especially as it rises past 1.1550. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI also fell into contraction at 48.5, indicating that dollar weakness might continue through August. This approach allows for defined risk while following the current trend.
Gold’s rise to $3,350 is closely linked to decreasing US Treasury yields and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s plans. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a Fed rate cut by December 2025 has increased from 25% last month to over 60% after the recent data. This means call options on gold futures are likely to be in high demand.
For the Australian dollar, the slight improvement in net short positions isn’t strong enough to signal a buy. The net position remains quite bearish at -78.1k, likely due to concerns about China’s economy, especially after their July Caixin PMI barely remained above expansion at 50.1. Selling out-of-the-money call options on the AUD could allow for premium collection while acknowledging the overall negative sentiment.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness as it drops below $115,000. Recent data from Coinglass indicated over $400 million in long position liquidations within just 24 hours last week, indicating strong selling pressure. It’s important to keep an eye on the $112,000 support level, and consider protective puts if it breaks.
CFTC reports a decrease in net positions for JPY from ¥106.6K to ¥89.2K
Japan’s latest data shows a drop in CFTC JPY net positions, falling from ¥106.6K to ¥89.2K. This change reflects wider economic trends that are affecting currency markets around the world.
In other news, the EUR/USD rate has risen above 1.1550, helped by disappointing US economic data, including poor employment numbers and a weak ISM Manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has bounced back, trading over 1.3250 due to the weakness of the US dollar.
Gold prices have hit new weekly highs, trading around $3,350. This rise is supported by lower US Treasury bond yields, which have prompted a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans. However, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are struggling in August, following a strong July.
The Eurozone is showing surprising strength, thanks to the EU-US deal and increased spending in Germany. Still, there are concerns about possible interest rate cuts. Monitoring wage indicators will be key to predicting future monetary policy actions.
Choosing the right broker is crucial for trading EUR/USD successfully in 2025. The best brokers offer competitive spreads, fast execution, and strong platforms, catering to both new and experienced traders in the ever-changing forex market.
Speculators are reducing their short positions on the Japanese Yen, with net positions falling sharply. This aligns with the disappointing US jobs report for July 2025, where non-farm payrolls added only 150,000 jobs, falling short of the 220,000 expected. Derivative traders may view this as a signal to consider buying JPY calls, anticipating Yen strength if US data continues to weaken.
The Euro’s rise above 1.1550 is directly linked to the weak US dollar. Additionally, German factory orders for June 2025 surprised many by increasing 1.5% month-over-month, indicating solid core economic health in Europe. Given these trends, buying call options on the EUR/USD with a strike price near 1.1600 could be a smart strategy in the upcoming weeks.
The British Pound is rising past 1.3250, largely due to the dollar’s decline. This increase is also supported by the latest Bank of England meeting minutes, which suggested a tougher approach to combat inflation after June 2025’s CPI came in at 3.1%. Traders might want to consider long positions in GBP/USD futures, as this pair benefits from US weakness and a more aggressive UK policy.
Gold is performing well, surpassing $3,350 an ounce as US Treasury yields fall. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 2.95%, dipping below the important 3.00% mark for the first time since early 2025. Traders should consider buying gold futures or call options to take advantage of this trend, as lower yields mean less opportunity cost for holding gold.
Although July was strong for Bitcoin, early August is showing signs of weakness. Trading volumes on major exchanges have fallen by about 20% compared to July, and sentiment has been affected by news of a potential SEC investigation into staking services. Traders should remain cautious, possibly looking at protection strategies like put options or reducing leverage on long positions until there is more regulatory clarity.
CFTC’s net positions for the Eurozone drop to €123.4K from €125.5K
Eurozone’s CFTC EUR net short positions decreased from €125.5K to €123.4K. This reflects changes in euro trading positions.
EUR/USD rallied, trading above 1.1550 after disappointing US employment figures. The US Dollar weakened due to weaker Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
Market Rally
GBP/USD recovered, trading positively above 1.3250. This change occurred after US job reports fell short of expectations, leading to a short-term bounce for the pair. Gold prices rose to nearly $3,350, achieving new weekly highs. This rise was fueled by declining US Treasury yields and a revised outlook on the Federal Reserve’s rate plans. The cryptocurrency market faces difficulties despite a strong July. Bitcoin dropped below $115,000 as the market adjusts to challenges, with potential support around $112,000. In the euro area, the economy proved strong over the summer. A deal between the EU and US, along with Germany’s spending plans, improved prospects. However, signs of weaker wage indicators could lead to future cuts. A guide for choosing top brokers for EUR/USD trading in 2025 is available. It features brokers with competitive spreads and fast execution, ideal for both beginners and experienced traders.Currency And Commodity Trading Strategies
Following a disappointing US jobs report last Friday, the dollar has weakened significantly. Nonfarm Payrolls added only 95,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the July ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.9, indicating contraction. We should be cautious about holding long positions in the US dollar for now. The EUR/USD is pushing above the 1.1550 level, and this trend may continue. Although large traders are still net short on the euro, their positions are decreasing, suggesting a change in sentiment. With Eurozone inflation steady at 2.5% last month, buying near-term call options on the EUR/USD might capture further gains. The British Pound is showing strength against the dollar, with GBP/USD back above 1.3250. However, we should note recent UK retail sales data from late July showed a surprising decline, hinting at some domestic weakness. Selling GBP/USD put options could be a worthwhile strategy, collecting a premium while betting that the pair stays above key support levels. Gold has surged to nearly $3,350 as US Treasury yields decline. The 10-year yield just fell below 3.90% for the first time since May 2025, often supporting gold rallies, similar to what occurred during the Fed’s easing cycle in 2019. Buying gold futures or call options is a straightforward way to trade this momentum. In the crypto market, we need to be more cautious after a strong July. Bitcoin has fallen below $115,000, and testing the $112,000 support level seems likely in the coming days. Traders may consider buying protective put options or selling out-of-the-money call options if they expect consolidation. The market is reevaluating the Federal Reserve’s future path, leading to significant volatility across asset classes. This environment favors strategies that benefit from price fluctuations, such as long straddles on major currency pairs ahead of upcoming inflation data. The key is to remain flexible, as expectations for future interest rate changes will continue to evolve. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Dow Jones Industrial Average drops over 800 points after disappointing jobs report
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped nearly 2% on Friday, falling more than 800 points at its lowest point. The market struggled to recover after a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed fewer jobs were added in July than expected.
The Dow hit a five-week low of 43,330 and encountered resistance around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. Overall, the index suffered its worst week since April, falling over 3% from Monday’s opening near 45,000.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report
In July, US Nonfarm Payrolls added just 73,000 jobs, far below the expected 110,000. The job additions for May and June were revised down, removing over 250,000 jobs from earlier numbers, leaving a three-month total of just 104,000 new jobs. With this disappointing labor data, the market now sees a strong chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of at least a quarter-point cut has jumped to over 80% following the report, up from 45% before. US economic indicators show ongoing challenges, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.0. In July, 79% of the manufacturing sector’s GDP saw contraction, a significant increase from June’s 46%, partly due to uncertainties about tariffs and delays in President Trump’s import tax plans.Market Volatility And Strategies
After Friday’s significant drop, market volatility has increased. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped over 18%, closing above 19. Traders may want to consider strategies that benefit from price swings, such as long straddles on major indices. This environment suggests uncertainty will be a major theme in the market for now. Market reactions have shifted expectations firmly toward a rate cut in September. With the probability now exceeding 80%, downside risks could potentially be softened by the likelihood of cheaper money. This makes call options on interest-rate-sensitive sectors with late September expirations more appealing. The decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 48.0 confirms a wider economic slowdown, highlighting the need for Fed intervention. We see yields on the 2-year Treasury note plummet to 3.85% as traders adjust for the anticipated rate cut. This bond market response reinforces our belief that, once the initial shock passes, equities could trend upward. We’re looking at this situation with the perspective of past events, like the Fed’s policy change in 2019. Back then, early market weakness led to a strong rally after rate cuts began, as monetary easing supported asset prices. While history isn’t a perfect predictor, it suggests we should be ready for a possible rally leading up to the September Fed meeting. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.WTI crude oil dips below $70 as geopolitical tensions increase, testing key support levels
WTI Crude Oil fell over 3% on Friday but still rose by 2.25% this week. Prices are approaching $66.70 after dropping from nearly $70 earlier in the week.
Geopolitical tensions have increased following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of nuclear submarines being positioned near Russia. This has raised energy security concerns. Trump’s messages on Truth Social added to the market volatility, especially since he also warned of tariffs on countries still buying Russian oil.
From a technical perspective, WTI is currently forming a symmetrical triangle, with prices moving towards the lower edge. If the current support fails, we could see a bearish breakout down to the $63.00-$60.00 range.
The support zone is strengthened by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, which are around $66.08 and $66.12. If buyers can defend this area, we might see prices bounce back towards $70 or even the June high of $76.74.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above neutral at 50.30, while the MACD indicator shows diminishing bullish momentum. This indicates that there is no clear market direction, which reflects the overall uncertainties.
As of August 2, 2025, the oil market is experiencing a tug-of-war. The geopolitical tension from the White House’s remarks on Russia is pushing prices upwards. However, China’s July manufacturing PMI data was a bit disappointing at 50.2, signaling slower factory activity and raising concerns about demand.
Given the current situation, it’s wise to be cautious in the coming weeks. If prices drop below the critical support around $66, it could quickly fall to the $60-$63 range. This level is important as WTI consolidated in a similar area back in late 2023 before making its next major move.
The market seems doubtful that President Trump’s tariff threats will significantly reduce Russian oil supply in the short term. In 2022, price caps were avoided, and recent shipping data shows that Russian oil exports to Asia remained strong in July 2025, averaging over 3.4 million barrels per day. Along with OPEC+ maintaining its production cuts since June 2025, this creates a very tense supply situation.
For those considering a rebound, buying short-dated call options could be a smart move. This strategy allows you to take advantage of a bounce off the strong support at the $66 moving averages without needing to invest a lot. The first target would be to retest the $70 psychological level, with the June 2025 high near $77 as the secondary goal.
Technical indicators show market indecision, with the RSI close to neutral and bullish momentum fading. Therefore, it’s best to avoid making big, bold moves until prices break clearly out of their current triangle pattern. Staying flexible and ready to respond to a breakout in either direction is crucial.
After predicting a decline in the Dow, the broader market has started to downturn as well.
The stock market is down, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 futures dropping after hitting resistance at their high points on Thursday. By mid-Friday, the ongoing selloff indicated weak bullish momentum, hinting that further declines could follow if key support levels are broken.
In the Dow futures market, a rising-wedge breakdown is in motion, pushing prices lower for the fourth day in a row. Important support levels are at 43,664 and 43,333, with targets around 42,797 if bearish trends continue. If prices can rise past 43,900, a recovery could be possible.
The Nasdaq-100 futures have also dropped for two days from a high of 23,760.75. Key support is at 22,794.50, with lower targets of 22,283 if the bearish trend stays strong. A recovery might happen if prices stay above 22,794.50.
The S&P 500 futures struggled around 6,459, setting critical support at 6,230.75. bearish targets include 6,192.25 and possibly lower. A bullish recovery could occur if prices return to about 6,279.50. It’s vital for traders to keep an eye on these support levels, as they will influence potential declines or rally opportunities.
The recent market decline signals a need for caution. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are showing weakness after failing to push higher, indicating that bears are currently in control. This trend aligns with the recent July 2025 Consumer Price Index report, which was higher than expected at 3.4%, raising concerns about elevated interest rates.
For the Dow, we are focusing on the rising-wedge breakdown and considering bearish moves like buying put options or selling futures. If the key support at 43,333 is broken, our next target will be 42,797. We would reconsider a bullish outlook only if prices strongly reclaim 43,900.
The decline in the Nasdaq-100 is worrying, and we should prepare for more drops. If it falls below the critical support of 22,794.50, it may drop to around 22,283. Additionally, July’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, signaling that tech and growth stocks might be especially sensitive right now.
On the S&P 500, the failure at 6,459 is a strong bearish indicator for the market overall. We will focus on the support at 6,230.75; if this breaks, we may target 6,192.25 with our short positions. We will also use tight stop-losses on any bullish trades unless the market climbs back above 6,279.50.
Overall, this kind of market volatility is not surprising for this time of year. August and September often bring choppy conditions, as we saw with similar pullbacks in late summers of 2023 and 2024. This seasonal trend supports our defensive strategy, leading us to prefer trades that benefit from falling prices or increased volatility.
Gold prices rise over 1.50% after poor US job data and tensions in Russia
Gold prices jumped over 1.50% after a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US, indicating a weak job market. Rising tensions between Russia and the US also increased demand for gold, pushing prices close to $3,350.
