In a market sell-off, prices often fall across the board, so screening can help separate weaker prices from weaker businesses. The aim is to find firms that can still grow, protect margins, generate cash, and fund operations without strain. The screen used large, liquid shares: US-listed firms above USD 25 billion in market value, and firms in Western Europe, Asia, and Canada above USD 10 billion. It then filtered for a 52-week high change below 20 and 5-year revenue CAGR above 10.

Quality And Balance Sheet Filters

It required operating margin above 20, return on invested capital above 10, and return on common equity above 15. It also set free cash flow yield above 2% (US) and above 4% (non-US), plus net debt to EBITDA below 2. Valuation checks were forward 12-month P/E below 25 and forward 12-month PEG below 1.5. The US screen narrowed to 8 names: Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, AppLovin, Newmont, Adobe, and Autodesk. The non-US screen narrowed to 10 names: Novo Nordisk, Zijin Mining Group, Barrick Mining, Pop Mart International, Experian, Kinross Gold, Pan American Silver, Evolution Mining, Genmab, and Endeavour Mining. The output is a shortlist for further research, not a decision tool. The market’s recent 15% pullback from the January highs has pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) above 28, creating a nervous environment for the coming weeks. In times like these, we should not treat all falling stocks the same. This sell-off creates opportunities if we can separate strong businesses whose prices are temporarily weak from businesses that are fundamentally weaker.

Using Volatility To Express Views

Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are seeing their implied volatility rise with the market, which makes selling their options premiums more attractive. We saw how these companies protected their strong operating margins above 20% throughout the 2025 consolidation, giving us confidence now. Selling cash-secured puts on these names could be a way to either collect rich premium or acquire quality assets at a further discount if the market falls more. The key is to focus on relative strength rather than trying to call the absolute bottom for the market. Data from the last major downturn in 2022 showed that companies with high returns on capital and low debt fell significantly less than the broader Nasdaq 100 index. This suggests using options to bet on these quality names outperforming weaker peers or the index itself. The non-US list highlights a different kind of quality, with names like Novo Nordisk and Barrick Gold. With the February 2026 inflation print coming in hotter than expected at 3.8%, there is a renewed case for owning businesses with pricing power or exposure to hard assets. Call options on gold miners can serve as an effective hedge if these inflation fears continue to drive the sell-off. We must pay close attention to the balance sheet filter, keeping net debt to EBITDA below 2. The recent credit tightening from central banks means highly leveraged companies are at much greater risk of financing stress. This makes them poor candidates for long positions and potentially attractive targets for bearish option strategies. Even with quality names, valuation discipline is critical, which is why the forward P/E filter is important. Selling puts on a high-quality name is a less risky strategy if its valuation has already compressed significantly from its highs. We are not looking for the most beaten-down stocks, but rather the strongest businesses that are now trading at more reasonable prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Dear Client,
To ensure fair trading conditions and manage market volatility during major economic announcements, VT Markets will apply temporary leverage adjustments on certain trading products during specific news periods and market opening/closing.
These adjustments are designed to protect clients from abnormal market fluctuations, sudden liquidity changes, and extreme price movements that may occur during high-impact news releases.

1.Products Affected

The temporary leverage adjustment may apply to the following products:
• Forex
• Gold
• Silver
• Oil
• Indices
• Commodities (including XPT and XPD)

2. Adjusted Leverage During News Releases and Market Opening/Closing

During the specified news period, maximum leverage will be adjusted as follows:
Forex: 200
Gold: 200
Silver: 50
Oil: 20
Indices: 50
Commodities: 5

Please note that each product with leverage already below the above will not be affected.

3. News Events That Can Trigger the Adjustment

Leverage adjustments may be applied during major economic announcements including:
• FOMC Interest Rate Decisions
• CPI (Consumer Price Index)
• GDP
• PMI / NMI
• PPI
• Retail Sales
• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
• ADP Employment Data
• Crude Oil Inventories

The above data is for reference only. Other significant macroeconomic releases from major economies may also be included.

Please refer to the table below for details of the upcoming events and affected instruments:

All dates and times are stated in GMT+3 (MT4/MT5 server time).

4. Affected Period of News Releases and Market Opening/Closing

Temporary leverage adjustments apply during the following periods:
Economic News Period
• 15 minutes before the announcement
• 5 minutes after the announcement
Market Opening / Closing Period
• 3 hours before the weekly market closing (Friday)
• 30 minutes after market reopening (Monday)
• 30 minutes before daily market closing (Monday – Thursday)

After the above period ends, leverage will automatically return to the original leverage.

5. Important Rules

• The adjustment only affects new positions open during the adjustment period.
• Positions opened before the adjustment period will not be affected.
• Once the adjustment period ends, original leverage will resume automatically.

We strongly encourage clients to take these temporary leverage adjustments into account when planning trading strategies during high-impact economic events.
If you have any questions, please contact our support team: [email protected].

Norges Bank held its key policy rate at 4.00%. Committee records showed debate over an immediate rise versus waiting for more inflation data. The published rate path was raised by 20–45bp. The new forecast includes two 25bp hikes in June and September, followed by four 25bp cuts in 2027 and one 25bp cut in 2028.

Market Reaction And Immediate Impact

EUR/NOK dropped and briefly reached 11.10 after the decision and guidance. It then partly reversed as weaker equities weighed on the Norwegian krone. Looking back at the hawkish hold in late 2025, we see that subsequent data has only reinforced that view. Core inflation has remained stubbornly above target, with the February 2026 print coming in at 4.2%. This validates the central bank’s upward revision of its rate path and makes the forecasted June rate hike highly probable. This creates a clear policy divergence with the European Central Bank, which continues to signal a more cautious, data-dependent approach with potential cuts later in the year. As a result, the interest rate differential between Norway and the Eurozone is set to widen further. This policy gap is a primary driver for expecting renewed Norwegian Krone strength. For derivatives traders, this points towards positioning for a lower EUR/NOK in the coming weeks leading up to the June meeting. Buying EUR/NOK put options with June or July expiries could be an effective way to capitalize on the expected move. This strategy allows for defined risk while targeting levels below the 11.10 mark seen briefly in 2025.

Key Risks And Positioning Considerations

We must, however, remain mindful of the risk factors that caused the NOK’s reversal back in 2025. A significant downturn in global equity markets, or a sharp fall in Brent crude prices from their current stable position above $85 per barrel, could easily overwhelm the positive rate differential story. Therefore, monitoring broader risk sentiment is crucial when structuring any NOK-long positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Crude Oil prices recovered above $93.50 per barrel at the start of Friday’s European session. The US benchmark WTI continued its two-day rise and moved towards $100 amid expectations that the Iran war may not end soon. WTI fell to $88.93 during Thursday’s US session after reports that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass. Prices later rebounded during Friday’s Asian session as fighting continued.

Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Bid

US President Trump extended the deadline to attack Iran’s energy sites into April. Reports on negotiations remained mixed, with the US saying talks are going “very well” and Iranian leaders saying they await a US response to ceasefire conditions. Israel reported intercepting missiles from Iran overnight. Israel also carried out air strikes on targets in Beirut and Tehran. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East. A longer conflict and continued disruption risks could keep Oil prices near $100 or higher for most of 2026, alongside concerns about the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. The fading hope for a swift end to the Iran war suggests we should maintain a bullish bias on crude oil. We see traders positioning for a move towards, and beyond, the psychological $100 level by buying call options for May and June 2026 contracts. This view is strengthened by the latest Energy Information Administration report, which showed a larger-than-expected crude inventory draw of 4.2 million barrels, signaling tight underlying supply.

Options Strategies In High Volatility

The constant contradictory headlines are creating significant price swings, which is pushing implied volatility on oil options to its highest levels since the initial conflict began in late 2025. This environment makes buying simple call or put options very expensive. Therefore, we believe using debit or credit spreads is a more prudent way to express a directional view while managing the high costs associated with this volatility. We remember how prices surged in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, with WTI briefly touching over $130 per barrel on fears of supply disruption. The current military escalation and the potential for a full ground invasion mirror the conditions that created that historic price spike. The market is pricing in a similar “war premium,” which is likely to expand significantly if the additional 10,000 U.S. troops are confirmed for deployment. The most critical factor remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Recent maritime intelligence data shows that tanker insurance premiums for the region have tripled in the last month, and traffic is down nearly 40% from pre-conflict levels. Any direct confrontation in this chokepoint would immediately threaten the physical supply of millions of barrels and could send prices well north of $120 almost instantly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander argue that the recent rise in oil prices is unlikely to produce a 1970s-style stagflation episode in the United States. In their view, the main effect should be a one-off lift to headline inflation, with smaller knock-on effects to core inflation and GDP, while the Federal Reserve keeps policy unchanged as the labour market cools. They emphasize that US energy consumption has largely levelled off since the late 2000s, and that energy spending now represents a smaller share of household and business budgets. They also point to a softer labour market over the past two years, with wage pressures easing compared with earlier in the cycle.

Oil Shock Less Stagflationary

They add that a wider output gap than in 2022 implies more of the shock may come through as lower real wages rather than a sustained rise in inflation. Under their base case using the Fed’s FRBUS model, they estimate headline PCE inflation could reach about 3.1% in Q2. They estimate core inflation may stall near 3.0% year over year in the near term before levelling off in Q4. They also see unemployment rising slightly above 4.5%, alongside only a marginally negative effect on growth. They note that markets have removed more than 50bps of expected Fed easing for the year and now price a small chance of a rate rise. However, they argue the model implies weaker growth should offset near-term inflation risk, leaving policymakers inclined to wait for clearer evidence before moving. The recent oil price surge, in their assessment, is not shaping up to be the kind of stagflationary shock some feared. Even after Brent spiked above $110 a barrel late last year, it has since settled around $95, and the US appears more resilient with energy’s share of consumer spending closer to 4%, versus above 8% during the 1970s shocks.

Fed Seen Staying On Hold

They expect the impact to be concentrated in headline inflation with limited spillover into underlying prices. Recent data are presented as consistent with that view, with headline PCE at 2.9% year over year while core PCE held at 2.8%, alongside a softening labour market that is helping contain underlying price pressures. Against this backdrop, they see the Federal Reserve remaining on hold, similar to its stance at the most recent meeting. With aggressive rate-cut expectations being pared back but a renewed hiking cycle also looking unlikely, they infer a continued wait-and-see posture from the Fed, and suggest positioning that benefits from lower interest-rate volatility. They expect growth effects to remain mild, with unemployment drifting a bit above 4.5% later this year from around 4.3%. In their framing this is a slowdown rather than a recession, implying fears of a major downturn are likely overstated; in markets, they argue this leaves implied equity volatility looking elevated and makes selling VIX futures a potentially favourable trade in the near term. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/JPY reversed an early dip to 212.60–212.55 on Friday and rose to a fresh daily high in early European trade. It held near 213.00 after UK data, staying close to the highest level since 10 February, reached the day before. UK Office for National Statistics data showed Retail Sales fell 0.4% month-on-month in February, versus a 0.8% fall expected. January was revised to a 2% gain from 1.8%.

Central Bank Signals And Policy Divergence

The Bank of England has pointed to a possible interest rate rise as early as April, linked to inflation concerns tied to the Iran war. The Bank of Japan updated its estimate of the natural rate of interest to around -0.9% to +0.5%, from -1.0% to +0.5%. Rising energy prices connected to the war were described as a risk to Japan’s outlook and a factor in policy normalisation. Higher crude oil prices were also linked to stronger inflation pressure and possible stagflation. Speculation about official action to limit yen weakness was cited as a reason for caution on further GBP/JPY gains. This was presented as a factor limiting stronger moves in the pair. Last year, we saw GBP/JPY push towards 213 as the Bank of England signaled rate hikes to fight inflation stemming from the Iran war. The Bank of Japan was struggling with its own policy, creating a clear divergence that favored a stronger pound. This environment made long positions in the currency pair seem like the obvious trade.

Volatility Strategy And Key Technical Levels

A year later, the situation has changed, as the Bank of Japan finally ended its negative interest rate policy with a hike to 0.1% earlier this month. While the Bank of England’s rate is higher at 5.25%, the market is now pricing in cuts for later this year as UK inflation has cooled to 3.4%. This policy convergence has pushed GBP/JPY down to the 191.50 level, a significant drop from the highs we saw in 2025. With the major central bank announcements behind us for now, implied volatility on GBP/JPY options has decreased from the highs seen last month. We should consider selling short-dated straddles to collect premium, betting that the pair will trade in a more defined range in the coming weeks. This strategy takes advantage of the market’s shift from a strong directional trend to a period of consolidation. The key risk is no longer BoE hawkishness but rather the pace of its expected rate cuts versus the BoJ’s potential for further slow tightening. We should watch the 190.00 level as a key support, as a break below could signal a new leg down. Any rally towards the 193.50 resistance area could be a good opportunity to establish short positions, aligning with the new fundamental backdrop. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD ended a three-day fall and traded near 1.3330 in early European hours on Friday. The move followed new UK Retail Sales data. UK Retail Sales fell 0.4% month-on-month in February, compared with a forecast of -0.8%. Annual retail sales rose 2.5%, versus an expected 2.1%.

Uk Consumer Confidence And Sterling

The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index dropped to -21 in March from -19 in February. It reached a near one-year low amid concerns about inflation and growth linked to the Middle East conflict. The pair held firmer as the US Dollar weakened amid easing risk aversion after Donald Trump said the US would pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days at Tehran’s request. Iran denied making such a request, and reports pointed to fragile diplomacy with low odds of a near-term ceasefire. GBP/USD could face pressure if the US Dollar strengthens on rising inflation concerns and reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets also increased bets on a potential rate hike by year-end. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said higher energy prices should have a modest inflation effect, though a sustained shock could have a larger impact. Fed Governor Michael Barr warned another price shock could raise inflation expectations and said policy changes should follow an assessment of conditions.

Retail Price Index Explained

The Retail Price Index is a measure of average consumer prices for a set basket of goods and services. It is widely used as an inflation indicator tied to cost-of-living changes. Looking back to last year, we saw GBP/USD react to conflicting UK economic signals, with retail sales beating expectations while consumer confidence was low. The pair was trading around 1.3330, influenced heavily by short-term geopolitical headlines. This environment created choppy conditions where the currency struggled for a clear direction. Fast forward to today, the pair is trading significantly lower around 1.2850, as the economic picture has evolved. While UK retail sales for February 2026 showed a modest 0.2% rise, the bigger issue remains the Bank of England’s struggle with services inflation, which is keeping interest rates elevated at 5.25%. This contrasts with the situation in 2025, where market focus was more on broad consumption figures. The US dollar’s strength is now a more dominant theme than it was during the temporary risk easing we saw last year. The Federal Reserve is signaling a slower pace of rate cuts, especially after the latest US Consumer Price Index data showed core inflation holding firm at 3.1%. This data gives the dollar a fundamental advantage over the pound. Geopolitical tensions mentioned in 2025, like the US-Iran situation, have been replaced by more persistent inflationary pressures from ongoing global supply chain adjustments. These sustained risks are keeping implied volatility in currency markets higher than last year’s levels. We believe this backdrop favors strategies that can profit from sudden moves, particularly to the downside for GBP/USD. Given the strong dollar and a cautious Bank of England, the path of least resistance for GBP/USD appears to be lower in the coming weeks. Traders should consider buying put options to protect against a drop toward the 1.2700 support level. Alternatively, establishing bearish put spreads could be a cost-effective way to position for a gradual decline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The S&P 500 E‑Mini Futures (ES) reached an all‑time high of 7043 on 28 January 2026. After this peak, the market moved into a larger correction, marking the end of the cycle that started from the April 2025 low. From the 28 January high, wave W ended at 6584.5. The following rally in wave X ended at 6852.65.

Wave Y Correction Overview

Wave Y then began to move lower as a zigzag. Within wave Y, wave ((a)) ended at 6483.5, and wave ((b)) rose to 6748. The target for wave Y is based on the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W. This projects a zone from 6110 to 6391. This zone is expected to support a stabilisation and at least a three‑wave rally. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 6852.65 holds, the decline is expected to continue. Since peaking at 7043 in late January, the S&P 500 has been in a clear corrective phase, confirming the end of the powerful rally that we saw start back in April 2025. This downturn aligns with recent inflation data for February, which came in hotter than expected at 3.5%, causing the market to reassess the Federal Reserve’s path. As of today, March 27, 2026, this corrective structure remains firmly in place. Given the expectation for the index to extend lower, traders could consider bearish positions in the coming weeks. This might involve buying put options or establishing put debit spreads to capitalize on the anticipated move down into our target zone. The key level to watch is the 6852.65 pivot; as long as the market stays below it, this short-term bearish view is valid.

Volatility And Positioning

The rise in market uncertainty is reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has climbed from around 15 in January to over 22 this week. This elevated volatility increases the cost of options but also signals that traders are actively hedging against further declines. Such an environment is typical for the developing Y-wave of a correction. We anticipate that significant buying interest will emerge in the 6391 to 6110 support zone. As the index enters this area, traders should shift their focus from bearish to bullish setups, looking for signs of a bottoming process. This could be an opportunity to initiate long positions through call options or by selling cash-secured puts, positioning for the expected three-wave rally. This price action is reminiscent of what we observed during the corrections of 2022, where Fed policy shifts also drove initial market declines before finding a floor. In that period, sharp pullbacks created strong buying opportunities for those who were patient. We believe a similar setup is forming now, where this current weakness will lead to a significant rebound from our target area. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Market expectations for Bank of Japan policy have changed little compared with other G10 central banks. Markets are priced for gradual tightening, with a moderately faster pace implied further out. The yen has risen against many peers this month, while concerns about possible FX intervention have limited moves above USD/JPY 160.00. Political debate about BoJ independence remains a factor.

Bank Of Japan Signals And Independence

The BoJ has released more economic variables, including new inflation indicators, to explain its approach. These data support the case for further rate rises and aim to reduce doubts about independence. Near term, safe-haven demand for the US dollar is expected to keep USD/JPY near current levels. Assuming crude oil and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach about 80% of pre-war levels by August, USD/JPY is projected near 152.00 in six months. If the BoJ keeps raising rates and shipping through Hormuz starts to return this spring, safe-haven USD demand may ease. That could allow USD/JPY to fall over a 3–6 month period. We see that expectations for the Bank of Japan’s policy have not changed much compared to other major central banks. The market has already factored in a gradual path of interest rate hikes. This complicates the task of strengthening the yen, as other currencies are also supported by their own central banks’ policies.

Options Strategies Around Usd Jpy Levels

The risk of direct currency intervention by Japanese authorities is keeping traders cautious, especially with the USD/JPY rate hovering near the 160.00 level. We remember the verbal warnings that intensified throughout 2025, and with Japan’s core inflation for February 2026 holding at a solid 2.4%, the pressure on the BoJ is mounting. These new inflation indicators support the case for further hikes and make the intervention threat more credible. For the coming weeks, traders should consider buying short-term put options on USD/JPY to protect against or profit from a sudden drop caused by intervention. Selling call options with strike prices above 160 could also be a viable strategy to capitalize on the view that this level acts as a firm ceiling. This approach bets on a sharp, but perhaps brief, spike in volatility. Looking out over the next three to six months, there is potential for the USD/JPY to fall towards 152.00. This is based on the assumption that the BoJ will continue its hiking cycle and that geopolitical tensions, which have boosted the safe-haven dollar, will begin to ease this spring. Buying longer-dated JPY call options could position traders for this potential downward move in the currency pair. However, we must also watch the United States, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance from 2025 has continued into this year. Strong US jobs data for February 2026 suggests the dollar’s strength may persist longer than anticipated. Therefore, using option spreads, rather than outright positions, could help manage the risk if safe-haven demand for the dollar remains high. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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UK retail sales fell by 0.4% month-on-month in February, below the forecast 0.8% fall, after a 2.0% rise in January that was revised up from 1.8%. On a year-on-year basis, sales rose 2.5% versus a 2.1% forecast, but was below January’s 4.8% increase, revised up from 4.5%. Retail sales excluding fuel also fell by 0.4% month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.8% drop, after January growth of 2.2% revised up from 2.0%. Annual growth in sales excluding fuel was 3.4%, down from 5.9% in the previous release, revised up from 5.5%.

Pound Reaction And Data Release

After the data, the pound moved lower, while GBP/USD was nearly flat around 1.3330. The Office for National Statistics released the figures on Friday, following a preview that pointed to a 07:00 GMT publication time. The pound sterling dates to 886 AD and is the UK’s currency. It accounts for 12% of FX transactions, averaging $630 billion a day in 2022, with GBP/USD at 11%, GBP/JPY at 3%, and EUR/GBP at 2%. The February retail sales decline of 0.4% is a key signal that high interest rates are starting to impact consumer spending more than anticipated. This softness, combined with the sluggish 0.1% GDP growth we saw in the final quarter of 2025, strengthens the view that the UK economy is losing momentum. The weak consumer outlook suggests the Bank of England’s tight monetary policy is taking its toll. This creates a conflict for the central bank, as inflation data from February showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still persistent at 2.8%, well above the 2% target. While the weak retail figures argue for an earlier interest rate cut to support the economy, the sticky inflation pushes for rates to be held higher for longer. This uncertainty is a direct recipe for increased currency volatility in the coming weeks.

Trading Implications For Sterling Volatility

Given this divergence, we should consider strategies that benefit from a rise in price swings. Options traders could look at buying straddles or strangles on GBP/USD, as implied volatility may not yet fully reflect the BoE’s difficult position. Such positions would profit from a significant move in either direction, whether the BoE signals a dovish pivot or a hawkish hold. The path of least resistance for the Pound appears to be downwards. The combination of a struggling consumer and a slowing economy suggests the BoE will ultimately have to prioritise growth, making rate cuts later this year more likely. This puts the UK on a more dovish path compared to the US Federal Reserve, which is dealing with a more resilient economy. Looking back at the end of the 2007 hiking cycle, we saw a similar pattern where consumer spending faltered well before the central bank began to ease policy. That historical precedent suggests this retail sales data could be a leading indicator of further economic weakness. Therefore, positioning for a weaker Pound against the Dollar seems prudent, as the economic data from the two countries continues to diverge. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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