Silver rebounded on Monday after falling to a year-to-date low in Asian trade. XAG/USD traded near $68.00 after dipping to about $61.01, its weakest level since December 2025. The move followed a pullback in the US Dollar and Treasury yields after US President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. He said strikes on Iranian power plants were postponed for five days, depending on talks. Iranian officials said no negotiations have taken place with the United States. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said its position on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions to end the war are unchanged, and Tehran has not replied to messages relayed by other countries, according to IRNA. Technically, silver remains below the 50-day SMA at $86.20 and the 100-day SMA near $73.80, keeping near-term bias bearish. The 200-day SMA is near $57.60 and still slopes higher. The RSI is near 34 and below 50, while the MACD remains below its signal line in negative territory. Resistance sits near $73.80, then $78.00–$80.00, with $86.20 as a further level. Support is at $61.01, then $57.60. A break below $57.60 could open a move towards $50.00. With silver trading well below its 50 and 100-day moving averages, the short-term path of least resistance is clearly downward. We are seeing significant selling pressure, with major silver ETFs reporting net outflows of over 15 million ounces this month alone. For traders, this reinforces the bearish case, making any rally toward the $73.80 level a potential opportunity to initiate new short positions. Industrial demand, a key pillar for silver, also appears to be softening, adding to the headwinds. Recent data from the Global PV Institute showed a 5% sequential decline in solar panel installations for Q1 2026, marking the first quarterly drop since the energy crisis of 2024. Furthermore, the latest US CPI data for February 2026 cooled slightly, reducing silver’s appeal as an immediate inflation hedge and supporting the US Dollar. Given the geopolitical situation, we see implied volatility on silver options reaching 12-month highs, with the Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) pushing past 45. This makes buying puts with strike prices near the $57.60 support level an attractive strategy to capitalize on both the bearish momentum and heightened uncertainty. The elevated volatility means option premiums are expensive, but the potential for a sharp move lower on any escalation with Iran could yield significant returns. However, we must remember from the 2025 perspective how markets reacted to the Ukraine conflict in 2022, where initial dips on de-escalation rumors were quickly reversed. The rising 200-day moving average suggests the long-term uptrend is still holding, meaning an outright escalation could trigger a violent short squeeze. Therefore, using bear put spreads could be prudent, as it defines risk while profiting from a move down toward the $57.60 to $61.00 range.

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US shares rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 600 points, about 1.5%, to regain 46,000. The S&P 500 added about 1.4% towards 6,600 and the Nasdaq Composite rose roughly 1.6%, after the Dow and Nasdaq were each about 9.8% below record highs through Friday. Moves followed a Truth Social post saying the US and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” and that strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure would be delayed for five days. Dow futures briefly jumped more than 1,000 points, then eased after Iranian state media denied direct talks.

Oil Prices Retreat After Deescalation Signals

Oil fell sharply, with WTI down about 8% to around $91 a barrel after nearing $100 earlier, and Brent down more than 7% to about $101 after touching above $114 in Asia. Both benchmarks were still more than a third above late-February pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs raised near-term oil forecasts, with Brent expected to average above $100 through April, and cited the Strait of Hormuz handling about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. The IEA said it was ready for another emergency release from strategic stockpiles. Caterpillar rose about 4%, while 3M and Home Depot were each up more than 3%, and Delta and United gained as oil fell. Tesla rose about 3%, while Nvidia, Amazon and Apple each added more than 2%. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% and the dot plot points to one 2026 cut after three 25-basis-point cuts ended 2025. The chance of no change through June rose to 89% from under 38% a month ago, with a small chance of a hike, and gold fell below $4,300 to its lowest level of 2026.

Trading Ideas In A Volatile Macro Backdrop

Given the market’s sharp reaction to a temporary de-escalation, we see an opportunity in volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has likely fallen below 20 today, making options cheaper, after trading near its highest levels of the year last week. We should consider buying S&P 500 (SPY) put options or VIX call options as a hedge, since the five-day pause is fragile and could be reversed by a single statement. The 8% drop in WTI crude oil is dramatic, but the fundamental supply risk has not vanished. With the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global seaborne oil, still a point of tension, we believe oil prices will find a floor not far from here. Instead of shorting crude directly, a better trade is to capitalize on lower input costs for beneficiaries like airlines, where fuel can account for over 25% of operating expenses, by buying call options on carriers like Delta (DAL) or United (UAL). The Federal Reserve’s stance is the market’s most powerful undercurrent, overriding even geopolitical news for some assets. With the market now pricing in an 89% chance of no rate cuts through June, the upward pressure on real yields will likely continue. This makes non-yielding assets like gold unattractive, so we are looking to add to bearish positions through put options on the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which has already broken to new lows for the year. We are seeing a classic risk-on rotation into cyclical stocks that benefit from economic confidence and lower energy prices. The leadership from industrials like Caterpillar and financials like JPMorgan is a strong signal this trend has legs if tensions continue to cool. We can gain exposure by purchasing call options on broad-based ETFs like the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), a playbook similar to what we observed in 2021 as the economy reopened. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD rose on Monday after US President Donald Trump postponed further military action against Iran and said talks were “very good and productive”. GBP/USD was at 1.3459, up more than 0.90% at the time of writing. The US Dollar weakened, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.54% to 98.97 against six other currencies. Iran’s media reported there was no direct or indirect contact between Washington and Tehran.

Markets React To Shift In Risk Sentiment

Markets reacted with Wall Street opening higher and Oil prices falling, which weighed on the Dollar. International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol said the current Middle East crisis has had a worse impact than the two Oil shocks of the 1970s combined, plus the effects on gas markets from the Russia-Ukraine war. Major central banks held interest rates steady last week, despite being in an easing cycle. Money markets price a Bank of England rate rise on 18 June at 52%, while Fed pricing implies 5 basis points of tightening for 17 June. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he needs “proof on inflation” and is watching how Oil prices affect the economy. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said policy should not react to short-term headlines. On the daily chart, GBP/USD was also cited at 1.3381, below moving averages near 1.3500. Resistance is near 1.3430 and 1.3500/1.3510, while support sits at 1.3340 and 1.3220, then 1.3100. We should be cautious about this sudden sterling strength, as the rally is driven by a single social media post that is already being disputed by Iranian media. The conflicting reports suggest that this de-escalation is fragile and could reverse quickly, making the current GBP/USD level near 1.34 potentially unstable. This environment screams of headline risk, where gains can be erased in an instant.

Options And Positioning Considerations

The underlying inflation data does not support sustained sterling appreciation against the dollar, as both central banks remain hawkish. We saw UK CPI remain stubbornly elevated at 3.4% in February 2026, which is why money markets are pricing a 52% chance of a Bank of England rate hike by June. Similarly, with US core inflation still hovering just under 3% last quarter, the Fed has no room to consider cuts. The drop in oil prices is likely temporary relief rather than a new trend. After averaging over $100 per barrel in late 2025, Brent crude’s fall to around $108 today is minor in the grand scheme of the ongoing energy crisis mentioned by the IEA. This persistent price pressure is what keeps Fed officials on edge and reinforces the market view that rates will stay higher for longer. From a technical standpoint, the rally is approaching a significant resistance area around 1.3500, which has repeatedly capped gains. This makes it an attractive level to consider selling GBP/USD call spreads or buying puts, betting that the fundamental pressures and technical ceiling will push the price back down. This strategy positions us for a reversal once the initial optimism from the geopolitical news fades. Given the uncertainty, an options strategy focused on volatility may be more prudent than picking a direction. The conflicting reports on US-Iran talks are a perfect setup for a large price swing in the coming weeks. Using a long straddle on GBP/USD would allow us to profit from a significant move, whether it’s a sharp rally on confirmed peace talks or a steep drop if tensions flare up again. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD traded near 0.5850 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.24% on the day. It rose as the US Dollar weakened, with the US Dollar Index near 99.40 after an earlier drop. The US move followed US President Donald Trump delaying possible military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure by five days. The delay came after reports of “constructive” talks, which reduced demand for the US Dollar.

Mixed Signals Drive Volatility

Uncertainty remains after Iranian sources quoted by Fars News Agency said there was no direct communication with Washington. Mixed messages have added to volatility, which can affect risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. Markets are also watching the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supply. Trump said reopening could happen quickly if a deal is reached, a factor that could shift oil prices and inflation expectations. In New Zealand, the currency faces headwinds after Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign outlook to negative. The change followed a weak fourth-quarter GDP release and cited risks linked to energy dependence during the Middle East war. Support for the NZD comes from expectations of tighter policy. Markets are pricing about a 50% chance of an RBNZ rate rise as early as May, according to Reuters.

From Geopolitics To Policy Divergence

Looking back at early 2025, we saw the kiwi dollar get a temporary lift as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East seemed to cool off. The US dollar softened for a moment, pushing NZD/USD towards 0.5850. However, the situation was highly uncertain, with conflicting signals about any real agreement between the US and Iran. We recall the market pricing a 50% chance of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike, which did happen in May 2025 as the Official Cash Rate was lifted to 5.75%. That decision proved necessary, as annual inflation only recently fell to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026, still well above the RBNZ’s target. This persistent inflation suggests the RBNZ will be slow to cut rates, providing a floor for the kiwi dollar. The concerns about New Zealand’s domestic economy from early last year were valid, as GDP growth remained sluggish for most of 2025. That weakness, which was confirmed in subsequent quarters, capped any significant gains for the currency at the time. We have since seen a modest economic rebound, with the latest data for the final quarter of 2025 showing 0.3% growth. Now, the focus has shifted from Middle East headlines to central bank policy divergence. With the US Federal Reserve now signaling potential rate cuts later this year as US inflation has cooled faster than New Zealand’s, the interest rate differential favors the kiwi. Considering this outlook, traders could use options to position for further upside in NZD/USD, perhaps by buying call spreads to target a move toward the 0.6300 level while managing premium costs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BNP Paribas forecasts Eurozone GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 following 1.5% in 2025, tying the outlook to German fiscal measures, higher military spending, rising AI-related investment in Europe, and a resilient labour market. Inflation is expected to remain below 2% in 2026, with BNP Paribas looking for a gradual rise in 2027 as economic activity strengthens.

ECB Policy Outlook Into 2027

On that path, BNP Paribas expects the ECB to raise rates in the second half of 2027 and projects the deposit facility rate reaching 2.5%. The article notes it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We see Eurozone growth firming up this year, building on the resilience observed throughout 2025. The latest flash manufacturing PMI for March showed a modest uptick, confirming this trend, while February inflation came in at 1.7%. This environment suggests the ECB will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. For interest rate derivatives, this points to a period of calm in the coming weeks for the front end of the curve. We should not expect significant moves in short term interest rate futures such as contracts expiring in mid 2026. The focus should be on positioning for the eventual rate hikes now being priced into the second half of 2027.

Equities And FX Strategy Implications

The economic backdrop is supportive for European equities, fueled by German fiscal measures and targeted AI investment. After the Euro Stoxx 50 index saw steady gains in the final quarter of 2025, conditions appear set for continued stable upside. Buying call options or constructing bullish call spreads on major European indices could be a viable strategy to capitalize on this. In the currency market, the euro volatility will likely remain low. With the ECB on a predictable path, EUR USD could continue the range bound trading seen for much of last year. Given recent US data suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to stay vigilant on inflation, selling options to collect premium on the euro appears attractive. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD rose on Monday as broad US Dollar weakness followed President Donald Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iran, easing demand for the Dollar. EUR/USD traded near 1.1623 after hitting an intraday low around 1.1584. The US Dollar Index traded near 99 after falling from an intraday high of 100.15. Trump wrote that strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure were postponed for five days, with talks expected to continue this week.

Geopolitical Delay Drives Market Reaction

Trump said Iran wants a deal and that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner. He also told reporters the sides have about 15 points of agreement, including that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Iranian outlets disputed this, reporting no direct or indirect communications with the US. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the comments were intended to lower energy prices and allow time for military planning. WTI crude traded around $85.75, down nearly 12%, though still above pre-conflict levels. Markets have fully priced in two ECB rate hikes this year, while Fed rate cuts have been fully priced out for 2026. The Financial Times reported the EU could lose favourable access to US LNG if it changes its trade deal. The European Parliament votes on Thursday on a pact that includes a commitment to buy $750 billion of US energy by 2028.

Volatility And Risk Positioning

We should treat the current market environment with extreme caution, as the five-day delay in military action is a very short window. The spike in volatility is the main takeaway, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) recently hitting levels we haven’t seen since the energy supply scares of 2025. This suggests that buying options, such as straddles on oil futures or major currency pairs, could be a prudent way to trade the upcoming uncertainty. The sharp drop in WTI crude oil to around $85 might be a temporary reprieve and an opportunity for traders. Key issues like the security of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, and we remember how similar de-escalation headlines during the 2019 tensions were quickly reversed. With oil still elevated from pre-conflict levels, buying call options on crude could be a defined-risk way to position for a potential snap-back in prices if talks fail. For currency traders, the divergence between central banks is becoming more pronounced. Recent Eurostat data showed core inflation remaining above 3%, justifying the market pricing of two ECB rate hikes before the end of the year. In contrast, with recent US PCE data coming in firm, the Federal Reserve has no reason to consider rate cuts, which should provide a floor for the Dollar. This makes the current US Dollar weakness look like a short-term reaction to geopolitical news rather than a fundamental shift. Should the situation with Iran deteriorate again after the five-day pause, we expect a rapid return of safe-haven demand for the Dollar. The DXY retreating from over 100 provides a more attractive level to position for a potential rebound. Finally, we are keeping a close eye on the European Parliament’s vote this Thursday regarding the US energy pact. Any sign of trouble could pressure the Euro, as the EU now relies on US LNG for over 50% of its total imports, a massive increase from just 25% before the crisis in 2025. This is a secondary risk for the Euro that could complicate the trading landscape by the end of the week. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Wall Street analysts expect Lovesac (LOVE) to report quarterly earnings of $2.00 per share, a 6.1% fall year on year. Revenue is forecast at $242.56 million, up 0.4% from the same quarter last year. The consensus EPS estimate has not changed in the past 30 days. This shows no net revision to analysts’ expectations over that period. Analysts estimate ‘Net Sales- Other’ at $13.43 million, down 18.6% year on year. ‘Net Sales- Internet’ is forecast at $63.47 million, down 10%. ‘Net Sales- Showrooms’ is projected to be $165.67 million, up 7.2% year on year. The ‘Ending Showroom Count’ is expected to be 279, compared with 257 in the same quarter last year. Zacks Investment Research is promoting a free download called “7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days”. The item is presented as a recommendation list. We see the upcoming Lovesac report as a signal of stalled growth, with earnings projected to fall 6.1% despite flat revenue. This suggests pressure on profit margins and operational efficiency. For traders, this stagnation is a key indicator leading into the announcement. The internal sales numbers are particularly concerning. The double-digit declines in the internet and “other” sales categories show a worrying weakness in digital reach and product diversification. Growth is entirely dependent on opening new physical showrooms, a costly and less scalable strategy. This trend contrasts with broader market data from early 2026, where overall e-commerce spending on home furnishings has seen a modest 2% recovery after the 2025 slowdown. This suggests Lovesac may be losing online market share to competitors. The reliance on showroom expansion in this environment adds significant risk. Looking back, we saw a similar situation ahead of the third quarter 2025 report, which was followed by a 15% drop in the stock price when online sales figures disappointed investors. The current setup mirrors the concerns from that period, but with even weaker expectations for the digital channel. This history suggests a high probability of a negative reaction to any confirmation of online weakness. For derivative traders, this outlook supports establishing bearish positions in the coming weeks. Buying puts or implementing put debit spreads could capitalize on a potential post-earnings decline. With implied volatility currently elevated around 75%, the market is already anticipating a significant price swing. Given that consensus estimates have not been updated for a month, there is a chance for a significant surprise if the company has managed costs better than expected. Therefore, a long straddle could be an appropriate strategy for those who are less directionally biased but anticipate a sharp move. This approach would profit from a larger-than-expected price change, regardless of whether it is upward or downward.

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Eurozone consumer confidence was -16.3 in March. This was below the forecast of -14.4. The sharp miss in March consumer confidence, falling to -16.3 instead of the expected -14.4, signals significant weakness ahead. This is the lowest reading in six months and suggests consumer spending may falter heading into the second quarter. We should therefore anticipate downward pressure on European equity indices.

Implications For ECB Policy

This weak data directly impacts European Central Bank policy expectations, making an interest rate cut more likely. Market pricing now indicates a 75% probability of a rate reduction by the ECB’s June meeting, a notable increase from 50% just last week. Positioning for lower yields through instruments like German Bund futures is now a primary consideration. With the EURO STOXX 50 index trading near 5,450, these levels look increasingly fragile against a backdrop of weakening consumer demand. This sentiment directly threatens earnings for retail and luxury goods sectors, which have been key market drivers. We see value in purchasing put options on the index to hedge against a potential correction in the coming weeks. The widening interest rate differential with the United States is weighing on the Euro, which has now slipped below the key 1.0700 level against the US dollar. The path of least resistance for the currency appears to be lower. We believe shorting the EUR/USD pair, either via futures or options, is a logical response to this data. This pattern is reminiscent of market conditions in the summer of 2025, when a similar plunge in sentiment preceded a 5% drop in equities. That dip in confidence foreshadowed weak retail sales data that emerged two months later. Given this precedent, we are preparing for a potential rise in market volatility.

Historical Parallels And Volatility Risk

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Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expect Banxico to keep the overnight policy rate at 7.00% at the 26 March meeting. They refer to inflation risks linked to the Iran war and earlier concerns about persistent inflation. They note that Mexico has some measures aimed at limiting inflation effects from the war. They still expect inflation to rise due to higher prices.

Banxico Board Divisions

They also describe divisions on Banxico’s Board of Governors between members focused on inflation and members more focused on growth. They add that a weaker economic outlook could complicate the decision path. They continue to forecast two 25bp rate cuts this year, starting in June. They say the risk is for fewer cuts and for cuts to start later in the year. Looking back at our analysis from this time last year, we correctly anticipated Banxico would hold its policy rate at 7.00% in the March 2025 meeting. The inflation concerns we flagged, stemming from the conflict in Iran, proved to be the dominant factor for the board. The risks of fewer and later rate cuts materialized throughout the year. The central bank remained more hawkish than even we expected, delivering only a single 25 basis point cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 instead of the two we had projected. This cautious stance was a response to headline inflation that averaged 5.2% for 2025, fueled by the energy price shock from the conflict. The Mexican peso was a major beneficiary, with the USD/MXN exchange rate falling from around 18.50 to 17.80 over the year.

Trading Implications For The Peso

Today, with the overnight rate at 6.75% and the latest inflation data for February 2026 still sticky at 4.3%, traders should remain cautious about pricing in further cuts. The central bank’s history of prioritizing inflation control suggests a high bar for any additional monetary easing. This environment continues to favor strategies that benefit from a stable or strengthening peso. For derivative traders, this reinforces the appeal of the Mexican peso carry trade. Selling out-of-the-money USD/MXN calls to collect premium remains a viable strategy, betting that the high interest rate differential will limit significant peso weakness. Traders could also use interest rate swaps to receive the high TIIE 28-day rate, positioning for a ‘higher-for-longer’ policy stance from Banxico. The primary risk to this view is a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the United States, which could dampen Mexican exports and force the board to prioritize growth. However, recent U.S. jobs data from February 2026 showed a resilient labor market, suggesting this risk is contained for now. Therefore, the path of least resistance appears to be continued peso strength in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Central and Eastern European currencies such as the Hungarian forint (HUF) and Polish złoty (PLN) have held up into the fourth week of the conflict, supported by high real rates and liquidity. Deteriorating fundamentals, plus energy and labour pressures and expected Western Europe rate rises, may force faster policy shifts by CEE central banks. Hungary’s central bank (MNB) decision is framed as a test for high-yield currencies, with HUF flows described as solid over the past week after early outflows at the start of the conflict. HUF is described as one of the best performers in EMEA across different asset classes, alongside policy risks linked to Hungary’s energy price guarantees. The MNB is expected to keep rates unchanged, with a 300–400bp real rate buffer cited as enough to help limit outflows if near-term CPI matches earlier forecasts. The text also notes this may be the minimum, as higher energy and labour costs could reduce real rates quickly. PLN and HUF are described as offering liquidity and real rates, while policy risks rise. RON and CZK are described as underperforming, with RON listed as one of the worst in iFlow due to low real rates and described as moving into a materially underheld position. The resilience of Central and Eastern European currencies like the forint and zloty is being seriously tested. The high real rate buffers that have protected these currencies for years are now shrinking as our central banks begin to cut rates while inflation remains stubborn. This situation is making traders nervous, as the main reason for holding these assets is weakening. Looking back to 2025, we remember having a comfortable real rate cushion of 300 to 400 basis points in countries like Hungary. Today, with the MNB’s policy rate at 6.0% and inflation persisting near 4.5%, that buffer has been sliced to around 150 basis points. This significantly changes the risk-reward calculation for holding the forint. The European Central Bank holding its own policy rate steady at a higher-than-expected 3.5% adds significant pressure. The yield advantage that once made the zloty an obvious choice is now much less compelling. Consequently, we believe traders should be cautious about being long these currencies without protection. The Romanian leu and Czech koruna are showing the strain most clearly, a trend that continues from what we saw develop in 2025. With Romania’s inflation still high at 5.0%, its 6.5% policy rate offers a real yield that is barely competitive with less risky assets. The koruna, which was never a strong carry trade, continues to be overlooked by investors seeking yield. Recent data showing a surprise contraction in German industrial production also flashes a warning sign for our export-driven economies. Given this backdrop, we think traders should consider buying downside protection through put options on pairs like EUR/HUF and EUR/PLN. This strategy offers a way to hedge against a sudden currency drop if fundamentals deteriorate further. For now, the positive real rates are just enough to compensate for risks like Poland’s recent fiscal package, which has raised concerns about its budget deficit. We believe that any sign of the ECB staying higher for longer could cause a rapid exit from CEE currency positions. Watching the daily changes in real rate differentials against the Eurozone is now more critical than ever.

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