Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton said the Iran war and threats around the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining risk for oil markets. He said Iranian retaliation could target Gulf energy infrastructure, affecting supply. He said a US decision to step back would not guarantee that Iran would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. He said this could leave Iran controlling flows through Hormuz, with toll payments and possible requirements for cargoes to be priced in Chinese yuan (CNY).

Worst Case Supply Disruption Risks

He said damage to oil and gas infrastructure could push conditions towards worst-case scenarios, where energy and other commodity supplies stay restricted for an open-ended period. He said an immediate reversal in oil prices and broader risk assets is unlikely. He cited late-week measures that allowed Indian LPG cargoes to transit Hormuz, and said Iran indicated a similar arrangement may soon be reached with Japan. He said this may ease pressure in the short term, but limited transit means Asian demand-side curtailment may continue until Hormuz reopens. The ongoing conflict with Iran sustains a significant risk premium in oil markets. With Brent crude futures hovering near $115 a barrel, we see little chance of a quick snapback to the prices seen before the 2025 escalation. The market is pricing in a long-term disruption, not a temporary skirmish. Current satellite tracking shows tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains down nearly 80% from its daily average in 2024, removing close to 17 million barrels per day from the market. This prolonged throttling of supply means any damage to Gulf energy infrastructure would be catastrophic. We believe the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), now trading near 65, accurately reflects this heightened risk of a worst-case scenario.

Geopolitical Control And Market Pricing

Any perceived US climbdown is unlikely as it would effectively cede control of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint to Iran. This would be a “Suez moment” for the United States, potentially ending its role as the global hegemon. For derivative traders, this means the underlying geopolitical driver for high prices remains firmly in place. The economic consequences are already clear, with the IMF last week revising its global 2026 growth forecast down by a full percentage point, citing sustained energy price shocks. A scenario where Iran enforces demands for oil payments in Chinese Yuan (CNY) would fundamentally challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance. This adds another layer of long-term risk and currency volatility that traders must now consider. Iran’s recent allowance of some Indian and Japanese LPG cargoes is a minor conciliatory move, but it does not change the strategic reality. These volumes represent a drop in the ocean compared to the overall halted supply. We saw how Asian industrial production figures for February 2026 already showed a contraction, a direct result of this energy curtailment that will likely continue. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, traded near $99.10 in early European hours on Monday, moving above $99.00 as conflict in the Middle East escalated. Markets are also awaiting the American Petroleum Institute (API) report due on Tuesday. On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours. Iran said it could close the Strait of Hormuz in response, as the war entered its fourth week.

Oil Markets Watch Middle East Risk

The International Energy Agency (IEA) head, Fatih Birol, said on Monday he was consulting governments in Asia and Europe about releasing stockpiled oil if necessary. On March 11, IEA members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to address supply disruption. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate and is one of three major crude types, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, and is often described as “light” and “sweet” due to low gravity and sulphur content. WTI prices are driven mainly by supply and demand, global growth, political disruption, sanctions, OPEC decisions, and the US Dollar. Weekly inventory reports from the API and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) can affect prices; the two sets of results are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. We remember this time last year, in 2025, when WTI crude pushed past $99 a barrel due to the escalating conflict with Iran. The threats to the Strait of Hormuz created significant upward pressure, reminding us how quickly geopolitical events can shift the market. That period of extreme volatility is a key reference point for our current strategy.

Strategy Implications For Current Volatility

Today, the situation is different, with WTI trading lower, recently hovering around $81 per barrel as of late last week. Current market focus has shifted from the supply shocks we saw in 2025 to concerns over global demand, particularly with recent economic data from China suggesting a slower recovery. The latest EIA report showed a surprise build in crude inventories of 3.6 million barrels, reinforcing this demand-side weakness. The memory of last year’s price spike means implied volatility on crude options remains elevated, even with the lower spot price. We are seeing traders buying call options as a hedge against any sudden flare-up, which is keeping the cost of upside protection relatively high. This suggests that while the immediate trend may be soft, the market is pricing in a significant risk premium for another supply-side shock. In the coming weeks, a key strategy will be managing this discrepancy between the current bearish sentiment and the priced-in geopolitical risk. Selling cash-secured puts at strike prices well below the current market, perhaps around the $75 level, could be a way to collect premium from the elevated volatility. We must also watch the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, as any hint of extending production cuts could quickly reverse the recent downtrend. We also recall the IEA’s record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves last year, which only provided temporary relief. Current U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels are still rebuilding from that period, sitting at approximately 362 million barrels, which is significantly lower than historical averages before 2022. This diminished buffer means any new supply disruption could have an even more dramatic price impact than what we witnessed in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY rose 0.22% to about 159.60 in the European session on Monday, as the US Dollar strengthened on demand for safe-haven assets amid the Middle East war. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.33% near 99.85. Tensions grew as Iran said it would retaliate against the US and Israel if Tehran’s power plants are attacked. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said Tehran’s power plants would be destroyed if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

Fed Policy Expectations Shift

Markets are pricing in steady US policy, with CME FedWatch showing a 97.3% chance the Fed keeps rates at or above 3.50%–3.75% at the December meeting. That is up from 32.4% a week earlier. The Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar, but gained versus major Asian and European currencies due to its safe-haven role. USD/JPY stayed above the rising 20-day EMA near 158.10 after a dip toward 157.70. The 14-day RSI moved above 60, pointing to upward momentum. Resistance is around 160.00 and then 160.50, while support sits at 158.70 and 157.50, with a further level at 156.46. We are seeing the USD/JPY pair once again challenge the critical 160.00 level, a situation reminiscent of what we observed in late 2025. This time, the dollar’s strength is being fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, pushing capital toward safe-haven assets. However, unlike last year, the underlying economic fundamentals are starting to diverge significantly.

Changing Underlying Economic Fundamentals

Looking back, the market in 2025 was convinced of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, but the situation has now changed. Recent data released for February 2026 showed US core inflation cooling to 2.5%, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, its highest in two years. This has shifted expectations for US interest rate policy considerably. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut by the June 2026 meeting, a stark contrast to the 97% chance of rates holding firm that we saw this time last year. This potential narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan is a key factor traders must now consider. The dollar’s dominance may not be as secure as it was. On the Japanese side, the landscape has also evolved since the Bank of Japan officially ended its negative interest rate policy in the fourth quarter of 2025. The preliminary results from this month’s “Shunto” wage negotiations are showing average pay increases exceeding 4.5%, putting pressure on the BoJ to consider further policy tightening. This provides a fundamental reason for potential yen strength that was absent previously. For derivative traders, this creates an environment ripe for volatility, suggesting a move away from simple directional bets. Given the risk of a sharp reversal, buying long-dated puts on USD/JPY could serve as a valuable hedge against a turn in central bank policy. Alternatively, straddles or strangles could be used to profit from a significant price move in either direction, which is likely as the pair trades near this sensitive level. We must also remember the Ministry of Finance’s direct intervention in the currency market back in 2024 when the pair first crossed the 160 threshold. The threat of similar official action is extremely high, making short-term options strategies focused on implied volatility more attractive than holding spot positions. The risk of a sudden, intervention-driven 300-pip drop is very real. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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March flash PMIs will be used to judge how the recent oil shock is affecting euro area activity and prices. The focus is on whether prices rise more than growth slows, as this could support the case for earlier ECB rate rises. Brent crude ended last week at about $110 per barrel, below its $128 peak in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Spot prices for refined products differ, with jet fuel and diesel now above their 2022 peaks, and jet fuel above by a wide margin.

Comparing The 2022 Inflation Shock

In March 2022, the activity index barely moved, while the prices index rose despite already being very high. The current situation is compared with that episode to assess the balance between growth and inflation pressures. The expectation is for only a limited fall in the activity index this time. Price components of the PMIs will be watched closely to see how strong the price shock is relative to growth. The upcoming flash PMIs this week are the most critical data point for us. We are focused on whether the recent oil shock is hitting prices harder than it is hurting economic activity. A report showing resilient activity but sharply rising price pressures would confirm the ECB’s fears and likely trigger earlier interest rate hikes. With refined products like diesel and jet fuel now trading above their 2022 peaks, inflationary pressures are undeniable. This follows February’s flash Eurozone inflation data which came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, keeping the pressure on the central bank. We expect the PMI activity index to show only a small dip, similar to what we saw back in 2022 from our perspective in 2025, placing all the emphasis on the prices sub-component.

Trading Implications And Positioning

Given this, traders should consider positioning for a more aggressive ECB. This could involve using EURIBOR or €STR futures to bet on higher short-term rates, as the market is now pricing in over a 70% chance of a rate hike by the July meeting. The uncertainty leading into the announcement also makes options strategies attractive. The VSTOXX volatility index has already risen to over 23, reflecting the market’s nervousness ahead of the PMI release. Buying straddles or strangles on the Euro Stoxx 50 index could be an effective way to profit from a large market move, regardless of the direction. A surprisingly strong price index reading would almost certainly strengthen the Euro. Therefore, we are also looking at buying call options on the EUR/USD pair. This provides a way to gain from a potential hawkish surprise that would send the common currency higher. Conversely, European equities may face headwinds from the combination of high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. This environment suggests a cautious stance on stocks, and buying put options on major European indices could serve as a hedge against a negative market reaction. We are particularly wary of transportation and airline stocks, which are directly exposed to the record-high cost of fuel. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Sterling fell against the US Dollar on Monday, with GBP/USD trading around 1.3315 in early Europe after touching about 1.3335 in Asia and near 1.3320 earlier. UK and US preliminary PMI data is due on Tuesday. Middle East fighting lifted Brent crude above $100 per barrel, which supported demand for the US Dollar and added to global inflation pressure. Iranian officials said they would retaliate if US President Donald Trump bombed Iran’s power plants, after Trump said on Saturday he would order strikes if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully open to shipping within 48 hours.

Oil Shock And Dollar Demand

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at its March meeting. Policymakers said the conflict could raise inflation in the near term via higher energy costs. Reports also said the US is weighing a ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island. A US official said thousands of Marines and Navy personnel have been deployed to the Middle East. We recall this time in 2025 when the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. That surge in energy costs and demand for the safe-haven dollar pushed the GBP/USD pair down below the 1.33 level. Today, with Brent futures trading nearer to $87, the situation is less critical, but the market’s memory of that volatility is shaping current strategies. The stagflation fears from 2025 did materialize to an extent, forcing the Bank of England to raise its base rate to a cycle peak of 5.25% later that year to control the oil-driven price shock. While UK inflation has now cooled to 3.5% according to the latest ONS data, it remains well above the 2% target. This persistent inflation complicates the path for any potential rate cuts from the central bank.

Volatility And Hedging Strategies

We saw 3-month implied volatility for GBP/USD options jump to over 12% during the peak of the Kharg Island crisis in 2025. While volatility has since settled to a more subdued 8%, this shows how quickly the currency pair can react to geopolitical news. Traders should consider the relatively low cost of options to hedge against a sudden return to risk-off sentiment. Given that the GBP/USD exchange rate is now consolidating around 1.25, the strong bearish trend from last year has stalled. The Bank of England’s hesitance to cut rates provides a floor for the pound, limiting significant downside for now. This environment may favor strategies like selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium, betting that a major collapse is not imminent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen reports that implied EUR/USD volatility is low despite claims of the greatest threat to energy security in history. She notes that 3‑month implied volatility is lower than at the start of the 2020 and 2022 crises, and lower than shortly after Liberation Day last year. The article links expected FX volatility to monetary policy expectations. It says expected volatility tends to rise when markets anticipate large interest rate moves that would change the carry differential between currencies.

Why Implied Volatility Stayed Low

It adds that, after the outbreak of the Iran war, interest rate expectations shifted in both the US and the eurozone. The scale of the repricing is described as similar in both areas, at just over 50 basis points, so large changes in the rate differential are not currently implied. It also states that the ECB may respond earlier than in past inflation episodes, but suggests the market may be assuming too low a hurdle for rate hikes. As a result, it notes scope for a correction and larger EUR/USD moves. The piece says it was created with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Looking back at the analysis from 2025, we remember the period following the Iran war when EUR/USD volatility was seen as unusually low. The market expected the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to adjust rates by a similar magnitude, keeping the pair stable. This consensus, however, proved to be a significant miscalculation as we moved into the latter half of that year.

Implications For Traders Today

The view that the ECB would be less responsive than the market priced in was correct, leading to a notable correction. As the Fed proceeded with its adjustments while the ECB lagged, the interest rate differential widened significantly through the autumn of 2025. Consequently, those who were positioned for higher volatility saw profitable opportunities as the exchange rate experienced stronger swings. As of today, March 23, 2026, a similar pattern of complacency may be emerging in the options market. Recent data shows Eurozone core HICP inflation for February came in stubbornly high at 3.5%, well above the ECB’s target. In contrast, the latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI has dipped to 48.9, signaling a contraction and raising concerns about economic momentum. This divergence suggests the ECB may be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer, while the Fed could be pressured to consider easing policy sooner than expected. This creates a clear potential for a widening rate differential that would favor the euro. The market, however, has not fully priced in this potential for a significant policy split. For derivative traders, this environment signals that current implied volatility levels are likely too low. The risk of a sharp re-pricing in EUR/USD is growing, reminiscent of the conditions we saw back in 2025. Therefore, positioning for an increase in volatility seems to be the most logical response in the coming weeks. A practical strategy would be to purchase 3-month at-the-money EUR/USD straddles. This approach allows a trader to profit from a substantial move in either direction, capitalizing on the underpriced risk of a central bank policy divergence. It is a direct bet that the market’s current quiet state will not last. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD fell to about 1.3315 in early European trading on Monday, as demand for the US Dollar increased. UK and US preliminary PMI data are due on Tuesday. The war in the Middle East has lifted Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel. Higher oil prices have boosted US Dollar safe-haven demand and added inflation pressure worldwide.

Geopolitical Risk Drives Safe Haven Flows

Iranian officials said they would retaliate across the region if US President Donald Trump orders strikes on Iran’s power plants. Trump said on Saturday he would order bombardment if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully open to shipping within 48 hours. The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75% last week. It said the shock to the economy is likely to raise UK inflation in the short term, while cutting its 2026 growth forecasts. UK labour market data also weighed on the pound, including a rise in the unemployment rate. An emergency meeting on Monday is due to bring together Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to discuss the economic fallout from the war in Iran. We are seeing a classic flight to safety, which means market volatility is the main theme for derivative traders. The immediate spike in uncertainty surrounding the Middle East will push up the price of options, so buying GBP/USD puts or even straddles to trade the widening price range is a primary response. This is a pattern we saw in early 2022 during the onset of the Ukraine conflict, where the Cboe British Pound Volatility Index (BPVIX) jumped significantly as traders hedged against sharp currency moves.

Key Levels And Derivatives Positioning

The downward pressure on the Pound against the US Dollar appears set to continue, driven by both safe-haven demand for the dollar and the UK’s domestic economic woes. Traders should look at shorting Sterling, potentially through futures contracts or by purchasing put options, to capitalize on this trend. A break below the key 1.3300 psychological level in the GBP/USD pair could easily accelerate the selling in the coming days. With Brent crude now over $100 per barrel due to direct threats against the Strait of Hormuz, traders will be looking at call options on oil futures. We saw in mid-2019 how even minor disruptions in the Gulf of Oman caused a 4% price spike, so the current direct threat of war justifies a much larger risk premium. Be aware that implied volatility is extremely high, meaning options will be expensive and vulnerable to a sharp price drop on any sign of de-escalation. The Bank of England is in a very difficult position, caught between rising inflation, which was already running at 3.5% at the end of last year, and a deteriorating growth outlook. Derivatives tied to the SONIA rate will see intense activity as the market tries to guess if the BoE will be forced into an emergency rate hike to defend the Pound, despite last week’s dovish hold. The outcome of today’s emergency meeting between the government and the BoE will be a major catalyst for the UK interest rate curve. All eyes will be on the Purchasing Managers Index data due tomorrow, as it will be the first significant economic health indicator since this crisis began. A poor showing for the UK, especially when compared to the US reading, would cement the stagflation narrative and add fuel to the anti-GBP trade. Short-dated options that expire this week are a useful tool for positioning around this specific event risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Australian Dollar fell 0.7% to near 0.6970 versus the US Dollar in early European trade on Monday. The AUD/USD pair dropped as risk appetite weakened after renewed Middle East conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel. S&P 500 futures were down 0.33% to near 6,487, after a 1.4% fall on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to about 99.70.

Middle East Conflict Spurs Inflation Concerns

The conflict raised concerns about energy supply and inflation expectations. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said “dozens of energy assets in the Middle East had been damaged in the war” and that “This crisis is worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined.” The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as expected. It also warned that inflation pressures could rise further due to the energy crisis. Markets are pricing a 50-50 chance of another RBA rise in May. Reuters reported that a 4.35% rate is fully priced by August. The US Dollar held firm as demand for safer assets increased. It was also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged this year, with higher oil prices feeding into inflation forecasts.

Current Trading Backdrop And Market Positioning

We recall the sharp risk-off sentiment in 2025 when escalating Middle East conflicts pushed the AUD/USD down toward 0.6970. Today, with the pair trading much lower around 0.6550, those geopolitical tensions continue to cap any significant Aussie dollar strength. The market remains sensitive to headlines from the region, making long positions in the currency a risky proposition. The Reserve Bank of Australia did follow through on its hawkish warnings from 2025, taking the cash rate to 4.35% before pausing. Australian CPI data released last week for the quarter showed inflation has cooled to 3.6% from its 2025 peak above 5%, giving the RBA room to hold steady. This pause removes a key driver of Aussie dollar strength that was anticipated back then. The energy fears expressed in 2025 proved prescient, as Brent crude oil spiked to over $120 a barrel before settling into the current range around $95. That price remains historically high and acts as a persistent tax on global growth, weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD. We are still living with the de-anchored inflation expectations the IEA chief warned about. For traders, this environment suggests buying AUD/USD put options to hedge against another geopolitical flare-up or a slowdown in China’s economy. With the US dollar still firm, options with a strike price around 0.6400 could provide cost-effective portfolio protection over the next few weeks. The premium paid is the maximum risk on the trade. Given the still-elevated price of oil, using options on energy futures offers a way to manage risk. Bull call spreads on Brent crude would allow traders to profit from a potential spike back toward $100 while defining their maximum loss upfront. This is a more cautious approach than buying futures outright in such an uncertain market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Singapore’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% year on year in February. This was down from 1.4% in the previous month. The latest figure shows a slower pace of inflation compared with January. The update covers overall consumer price changes in Singapore.

Inflation Cooling And Policy Implications

The recent drop in Singapore’s inflation to 1.2% for February is a significant development, continuing a cooling trend from last year. This figure, falling below market expectations, signals that price pressures are easing faster than we anticipated. It reduces the immediate need for the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its restrictive policy stance. With the next MAS policy meeting scheduled for April 2026, this low inflation print strengthens the case for a dovish shift. We believe the central bank may now consider reducing the slope of the S$NEER policy band, a move they refrained from throughout 2025 due to persistent inflation. This would be the first such easing in over two years, marking a notable change in policy direction. For our foreign exchange positions, this outlook suggests a weaker Singapore dollar ahead. We should consider buying USD/SGD call options with tenors extending past the April meeting to position for a potential upward move in the pair. Current 1-month implied volatility is hovering around a modest 4.8%, making option premiums relatively inexpensive for such a catalytic event. On the interest rate front, expectations for lower inflation and a more accommodative MAS should push down short-term rate forecasts. We see value in buying Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) futures contracts for the third quarter of 2026. This is a direct play on the market repricing a less aggressive interest rate path for the remainder of the year.

Equities And Risk Asset Positioning

This macroeconomic backdrop is also supportive of local equities, as lower borrowing costs benefit corporate earnings. We should look at establishing long positions in Straits Times Index (STI) futures, targeting a potential break above the 3,450 resistance level. The easing inflation provides a favorable environment for risk assets in the near term. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF rose to about 0.7890 in the early European session on Monday, supported by a hawkish hold from the US Federal Reserve. Traders are also watching developments in the Middle East. The Fed voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its March meeting last week. This was the second meeting in a row with no change, after a series of rate cuts in late 2025.

Middle East Risk And Inflation Pressure

Higher crude oil and energy prices, linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran, have renewed inflation concerns and reduced expectations for Fed cuts. Futures pricing shows a nearly 85% chance of no rate cuts at the April Fed meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool. At the same time, rising tensions could support the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency. Iran’s military said it would completely shut the Strait of Hormuz if US President Donald Trump targets Iranian energy facilities. Trump warned on Sunday that he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened within 48 hours. The statements added to market focus on regional risk. Given the Fed’s hawkish pivot away from the rate cuts we saw in late 2025, the path of least resistance for the US dollar appears to be upward. We should consider using options to position for further USD strength against the Swiss franc. The market is pricing in an 85% chance of rates remaining on hold in April, reinforcing this short-term dollar bull case. This shift in central bank policy is being driven by renewed inflation fears from soaring energy prices. Looking back at the spike in early 2022, WTI crude jumped from around $90 to over $120 a barrel in just a few weeks following the invasion of Ukraine. A similar shock seems plausible now, which would force the Fed’s hand to remain tight.

Options Strategy To Capture Volatility

The threat to the Strait of Hormuz is the primary catalyst for this oil price risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has consistently noted that about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption passes through this chokepoint. Any closure, however brief, would have an immediate and severe impact on global supply and prices. However, we must account for the Swiss franc’s role as a classic safe-haven asset. An escalating conflict could easily trigger a flight to safety that strengthens the CHF, creating a significant two-way risk for the USD/CHF pair. This tug-of-war between a hawkish Fed and geopolitical fear is a recipe for high volatility. Therefore, the most prudent derivative strategy is to buy volatility rather than betting on a specific direction. We believe establishing long straddles or strangles on USD/CHF is appropriate, as these positions profit from a large price move in either direction. This allows us to capitalize on the rising tension without being exposed to the binary outcome of the geopolitical standoff. Historically, such uncertainty causes a spike in implied volatility, making options more expensive. We saw this with the VIX index, which surged over 35 during the onset of the 2022 conflict. It is better for us to enter these volatility positions now before the market fully prices in the escalating war risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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