NZD/USD fell for a second day on Monday in the Asian session, moving back towards 0.5800. The pair stayed under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions supported the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar weakened after a disappointing Q4 GDP report, a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of New Zealand’s credit outlook. These factors kept the bias tilted to further losses.

Technical Breakdown Signals

The pair has broken below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5865–0.5870 and has failed to regain it. The 200-day SMA has started to slope down, while MACD remains below the signal line and under zero with a slightly negative histogram. RSI is near 41 and below the 50 midpoint, suggesting bearish pressure without oversold conditions. Support sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.5776, and a daily close below it may open a move to the 100% retracement low at 0.5581. Resistance is at the 50.0% retracement level at 0.5837, with the 200-day SMA reinforcing that area. A break above could target the 38.2% retracement level at 0.5897. Looking back at the analysis from early 2025, we can see the bearish perspective was well-founded as concerns over a dovish RBNZ and weak growth did push the pair lower. The forecast proved correct when the NZD/USD tested support near the 0.5776 level and eventually bottomed out later in the year. Those geopolitical tensions mentioned kept the US Dollar strong for much of 2025.

Shift In Macro Backdrop

The situation has now changed considerably as we move through the first quarter of 2026. Last week’s data showed New Zealand’s Q4 2025 GDP grew by a surprising 0.5%, beating expectations and signaling a more robust economic footing than a year ago. This contrasts sharply with the dismal GDP figures we were analyzing back in early 2025. Furthermore, with US inflation now trending down to 2.9% in the latest February 2026 reading, pressure is easing on the Federal Reserve, softening the US Dollar’s dominance. The NZD/USD pair has since reclaimed the critical 200-day moving average, which now sits as support around 0.5910. This former resistance level breaking suggests the bearish momentum from last year has faded. Given this shift, derivative traders should adjust their strategy away from the outright bearish positions of 2025. We believe purchasing call options with strike prices above 0.6000 could be an effective way to capitalize on potential upside over the coming weeks. This allows traders to benefit from a rising spot price while defining their maximum risk to the premium paid. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 99.65 in early European hours on Monday, moving above 99.50. It rose amid Middle East tensions and after the US Federal Reserve kept policy steady with a hawkish tone. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said “threats and terror” were strengthening unity after US President Donald Trump warned he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants. Trump set a 48-hour deadline for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened.

Geopolitical Risk Supports The Dollar

Iran’s military said it would completely shut the strait if the US targets Iranian energy facilities. The prospect of further conflict supported demand for the US Dollar. Crude oil and energy prices rose as the US-Israeli war with Iran escalated. Higher energy costs revived inflation concerns, which can lead markets to expect tighter US monetary policy and support the DXY. Markets are also watching US data for direction. The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March is due on Tuesday, and a weaker reading could weigh on the DXY. The strong upward movement in the US Dollar Index is a clear signal driven by both safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations. We are seeing a classic flight to safety as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate over the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, fueled by resurgent inflation fears from rising energy prices, is only adding to the dollar’s strength.

Positioning Ideas For Dollar Oil And Volatility

Given this environment, we should consider buying call options on the US dollar, particularly against currencies with more dovish central banks like the Euro and the Japanese Yen. With the Fed funds rate holding firm above 5%, the significant interest rate differential continues to make long-dollar positions attractive through the carry trade. This rate gap provides a fundamental tailwind for the dollar’s value. The direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz puts oil prices at the center of this crisis, and we must position accordingly. Around 21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, representing about 20% of global consumption, so any disruption will cause a severe price shock. Call options on WTI and Brent crude futures are a direct way to trade the risk of further escalation and a potential closure of this critical waterway. This level of market uncertainty also suggests that volatility is likely to increase across asset classes in the coming weeks. Looking back, we saw a similar dynamic in early 2022 when geopolitical conflict caused a surge in both energy prices and the US dollar. Therefore, employing volatility strategies like long straddles on major currency pairs such as EUR/USD could be profitable, capturing a large price move in either direction. This hawkish tone from the Fed marks a notable shift from the more neutral policy expectations we held in late 2025. However, we must remain tactical and watch Tuesday’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI reading. A surprisingly weak report could cause a temporary dip in the dollar, offering a more favorable entry point for establishing these long dollar and energy positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CAD fell for a second session and traded near 1.3710 in Asian hours on Monday. Price stayed above the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a mild bullish near-term bias within a wider range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) held in the mid-50s after rebounding from below 40. This points to firmer buying pressure without entering overbought territory.

Technical Levels And Breakout Watch

On the daily chart, the pair traded near the top of a rectangle pattern around 1.3750. A break above this area could open a move towards 1.3928, the three-month high set on 16 January. Support was seen at 1.3700, close to the nine- and 50-day EMAs at 1.3697 and 1.3696. A drop below these levels could shift focus to the lower edge of the range near 1.3540. The technical content was produced with help from an AI tool. We are watching the USD/CAD pair closely as it tests the critical 1.3700 support area. This level is significant because it aligns with both the nine- and 50-day moving averages, acting as a key pivot point for the near term. The pair’s ability to hold above this zone suggests an underlying bullish tone is still present.

Macro Drivers And Positioning

Fundamentally, the divergence between central bank policies is supporting the US dollar. Recent data showed US core inflation holding firm at 2.8% year-over-year, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain patient, while the Bank of Canada has signaled more concern about a slowing domestic economy. This policy difference continues to favor a stronger USD relative to the CAD. Adding pressure on the Canadian dollar, WTI crude oil prices have recently dipped below $80 per barrel, a drop of over 5% this month, due to concerns about global demand. As a major oil exporter, Canada’s currency is sensitive to these price shifts. This weakness in oil reinforces the potential for further USD/CAD upside. Considering the improving momentum shown by the RSI, we should consider purchasing April 2026 call options with a strike price around 1.3750. This strategy positions us for a potential breakout above the channel, targeting the January high near 1.3928. The defined risk of an options contract is prudent given the market is at a clear decision point. We saw a similar technical setup back in the fourth quarter of 2025, when the pair consolidated near its moving averages before a significant rally. That period was also marked by uncertainty around commodity prices, reminding us that these consolidations can precede strong directional moves. This historical precedent gives us added confidence in a potential upward resolution. However, risk must be managed carefully if the 1.3700 support level fails to hold. A definitive break below the moving averages would invalidate our bullish outlook. In that event, we should be prepared to quickly shift strategy and purchase put options targeting the lower channel boundary around 1.3540. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Asian shares fell at the start of the week after tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about energy supply. The move followed a 48-hour ultimatum from US President Donald Trump for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.75% near 51,360, Shanghai was down 2.23% near 3,870, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 3.3% around 24,440. Gift Nifty futures indicated the Nifty 50 could open more than 350 points lower near 22,770.

Markets React To Strait Of Hormuz Risk

Over the weekend, Trump posted on Truth.Social that Iranian energy facilities could face complete destruction if the strait is not reopened within 48 hours. Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, Politico reported. Iran also threatened to target US- and Israel-linked energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure in the region, according to Politico. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump discussed the strait on Sunday, with both stating it must reopen to resume global shipping. The disruption has added to oil supply risks for Asia. Saudi Aramco cut crude supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April after the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted trade via the strait. Higher energy prices can raise household costs and company expenses. Many Asian economies rely heavily on imported oil for their energy needs.

Trading Implications From The 2025 Playbook

We saw exactly this scenario play out in early 2025 when the Hormuz Strait conflict caused Asian markets to plummet almost overnight. That event created a clear template, showing us that geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East now have an immediate and severe impact on energy prices and equities. Any trader who was not prepared for that volatility paid a heavy price. Following the 2025 tensions, WTI crude futures briefly spiked to over $130 a barrel before settling into a new, higher range. As of last week, oil is holding steady around $95 a barrel, significantly above its pre-crisis levels, reflecting a permanent risk premium now priced into the market. This makes long-dated call options on oil a necessary hedge, as any new disruption could send prices soaring again. We should also remember how the Nikkei 225 took nearly six months to recover from the sharp sell-off it experienced in 2025. Today, Asian economies remain incredibly sensitive to energy costs, with Japan’s latest trade data showing a 12% year-over-year increase in the cost of energy imports. Buying put options on Asian index ETFs offers crucial protection against a repeat of this economic shock. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is another key lesson from the 2025 incident, where it jumped from 18 to over 45 in less than a week. The VIX is currently trading at a nervous 22, indicating that the market has not forgotten how quickly stability can vanish. We should view VIX call spreads as a cost-effective insurance policy against the next unpredictable event. The lasting effect from 2025 is that supply chain diversification is now a major theme, with U.S. LNG exports to Asia having risen by over 15% since the crisis. This has created new derivative opportunities tied to logistics and alternative energy sectors. These are no longer niche plays but essential positions in a world where traditional energy routes can no longer be taken for granted. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude slipped from intraday highs but held near $98.10 a barrel in Monday’s Asian session as Middle East supply risks persisted. Reports said US President Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible strikes on energy sites. Other reports said Washington is weighing a ground operation to take control of Iran’s Kharg Island, an oil export hub. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would shut the strait if the US acts, and Tehran said it could target US and Israeli assets in the region.

Supply Risks And Shipping Disruptions

Reuters reported Saudi Aramco cut crude shipments to Asian buyers for a second month in April, with disruption linked to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply was limited to Arab Light crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, tightening feedstock for Asian refiners and limiting output. IEA chief Fatih Birol said he is speaking with governments about possible emergency stock releases. He said reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the main route to ease the situation, and warned the disruption could exceed the combined oil shocks of the 1970s. With West Texas Intermediate crude near $98 a barrel and a 48-hour US deadline for Iran, we are seeing a massive increase in implied volatility. Traders should consider buying call options on May and June futures with strike prices well above $100, such as $105 or $110. This gives exposure to a potential price surge if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, similar to how prices shot past $120 a barrel in early 2022 after the conflict in Ukraine began. The extreme uncertainty of the situation means prices could also collapse if a diplomatic solution is found. To profit from a large price swing in either direction, a long straddle is a viable strategy, involving the purchase of both a call and a put option. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has likely surged, and we saw it jump from the 40s to over 90 during the 2022 supply shock, which shows how profitable playing volatility can be.

Brent Wti Spread And Relative Value Trades

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affects the international Brent benchmark more directly than WTI, so we expect the Brent-WTI spread to widen significantly. A pair trade, going long Brent futures while shorting WTI futures, could capture this divergence. This is reinforced by reports that Asian refiners are already seeing supply cuts, which will impact their margins and product output. Given that Saudi Aramco is limiting shipments to Asia, the market for refined products like gasoline and diesel will tighten even faster than crude. We should look at buying futures for refined products like RBOB gasoline while selling WTI crude futures, a position known as a long crack spread. Last year, we saw Asian crack spreads nearly triple in a few weeks during the South China Sea naval exercises, highlighting the potential here. The warnings from the International Energy Agency about releasing emergency stocks suggest they see a real possibility of a crisis worse than the 1970s shocks. While an SPR release could eventually cap prices, the announcement itself confirms the severity of the supply threat we are facing. Looking back at the 1973 oil crisis, prices quadrupled within six months, a historical precedent that makes holding long positions a compelling strategy for the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Saudi Aramco cut crude supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April, Reuters reported on Monday. The report linked the move to disruption after the US-Israeli war with Iran affected trade through the Strait of Hormuz. A source said Aramco is supplying only Arab Light crude in April to term customers. The barrels are exported from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Supply Tightness And Refinery Impacts

The report said this has kept supplies tight for Asian refineries. It also said it has capped refined product output. In market moves, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 0.75% at $97.93 at the time of writing. With WTI crude oil pushing towards $100 per barrel, we see this supply cut as a clear signal of continued price strength. The disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global petroleum consumption, is not a short-term issue. We are primarily looking at buying out-of-the-money call options on May and June futures contracts, targeting strike prices of $105 and $110. This geopolitical conflict introduces extreme uncertainty, meaning we must also prepare for sharp price swings in either direction. Implied volatility in the options market has likely surged, with the OVX index probably trading above 50, a level indicating significant market stress. To profit from this volatility, we are considering long straddles, which will be profitable if the price makes a large move up or down.

Brent Wti Spread Strategy

The disruption is specific to Middle Eastern crude, which is priced against the Brent benchmark, more so than the US-based WTI. Therefore, we expect the price gap between Brent and WTI to widen considerably in the coming weeks. A long Brent-WTI spread trade appears to be a well-defined strategy to isolate the impact of this regional crisis. Since the supply cut directly affects Asian refineries and their output of refined products, we anticipate a rise in gasoline and diesel prices. This will likely expand the “crack spread,” which represents the profit margin for refiners. We are positioning for this by taking long positions in gasoline futures relative to WTI crude futures. Looking back at the nearly 20% single-day price jump after the attacks on Saudi facilities in 2019 gives us a reference for how quickly this market can move. Furthermore, with US strategic petroleum reserves still recovering from the large releases seen between 2022 and 2024, the global supply cushion is thinner than it has been historically. This leaves the market more vulnerable to shocks like the current one. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY rose for a second day and traded in the mid-159.00s during Monday’s Asian session, staying near last week’s highest level since July 2024. Talk of official action in the currency market was cited as a possible cap on further gains. Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Atsushi Mimura, said the government is considering steps on all fronts to address foreign exchange volatility. The Bank of Japan’s policy stance also limited fresh selling of the yen.

Bank Of Japan Policy Signals

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the bank will keep raising the policy rate if the economy and prices track its forecast. He said underlying inflation is expected to align with the price target in the second half of the projection period, and that real interest rates remain at low levels. In the US, the Federal Reserve projected one rate cut this year and one in 2027. Concerns that higher crude oil prices could weigh on Japan’s economy were linked to yen weakness versus the dollar. Middle East tensions supported the dollar’s reserve currency role. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and said Iran’s energy infrastructure could be targeted if it does not comply. The USD/JPY pair is showing strength as we head towards the end of March 2026, holding near 159.60. The primary driver remains the significant interest rate difference between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which currently sits around 450 basis points. This gap makes holding US dollars much more profitable than holding Japanese yen.

Trading And Hedging Considerations

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, specifically tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, are bolstering the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal. We see Brent crude futures trading above $95 a barrel, putting pressure on Japan’s energy-importing economy and further weighing on the yen. This environment supports continued, albeit cautious, upside for the currency pair. However, we must remain alert to the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities as the pair approaches the 160.00 level. We remember the sharp, multi-yen drop that followed the Ministry of Finance’s action back in October 2025 when the pair briefly touched that same milestone. Official warnings this week suggest their patience is wearing thin again. The Bank of Japan’s own hawkish stance is adding to the complexity, with Governor Ueda signaling more rate hikes are possible. Japan’s national Core CPI for February 2026 came in at 2.7%, marking the 23rd consecutive month above the BoJ’s 2% target, giving them a reason to act. Still, their gradual approach has not been enough to reverse the yen’s weakness against a Federal Reserve that is cutting rates very slowly. For the coming weeks, we believe buying USD/JPY call options is a prudent strategy. This allows traders to capitalize on any further upward momentum toward and beyond the 160.00 level. The defined risk of an option premium protects against the potentially sharp losses that a direct spot position would suffer if Japanese authorities intervene. For those already holding long USD/JPY positions, we see value in purchasing out-of-the-money put options. These can serve as a cheap insurance policy against a sudden, surprise intervention by the Ministry of Finance. This hedge protects profits while allowing the underlying long position to benefit from any continued gradual ascent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD fell to about 1.3335 in early Asian trading on Monday, as the US Dollar strengthened. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel after conflict in the Middle East escalated, raising stagflation fears for the UK. The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its March meeting. Governor Andrew Bailey said the conflict will shock the economy and lift inflation in the near term, and he referred to safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as a factor in easing energy price rises.

Daily Chart Technical Picture

On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains mildly bearish and is trading below a flattening 100-day exponential moving average and under the Bollinger middle band. The RSI is near 45 and is below the midline, pointing to weaker upward momentum. The first support to watch is 1.3230, with a further downside level near 1.3160 if that breaks. The first resistance is around 1.3430, and a move above it would shift focus to 1.3560. The technical analysis section was produced with help from an AI tool. The current environment suggests a continued decline for GBP/USD, making put options an attractive strategy for the coming weeks. We are seeing sustained US dollar strength, driven by its safe-haven appeal amid the escalating conflict mentioned. Buying puts expiring in late April or May with a strike price near 1.3250 could position traders for a move toward the initial support at 1.3230.

Options Strategy Considerations

The UK’s economic backdrop supports this bearish view, with recent data showing Q4 2025 GDP growth at a mere 0.1% and February’s inflation remaining sticky at 3.9%. This contrasts with the US, where a robust February jobs report of over 210,000 new jobs keeps the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook more hawkish than the Bank of England’s. This policy divergence is a key factor weighing on the pound. For those anticipating a more gradual slide rather than a sharp drop, a bear call spread is a viable alternative. By selling a call option with a strike price at the 1.3430 resistance level and simultaneously buying a further out-of-the-money call, we can collect a premium. This strategy profits if the pair stays below the short strike price through expiration, capitalizing on the expected range-bound action. We must remember how the pound reacted to the energy shock of 2022, when stagflation fears became reality and drove the currency toward historic lows. The current situation, with Brent crude again pushing past $100 per barrel, echoes that period and highlights the significant downside risk for the UK economy. This historical precedent gives weight to the potential for a break below the 1.3230 support. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/CAD rebounded after opening with a gap lower and traded near 1.5830 in the Asian session on Monday. It struggled to extend gains, with the pair near 1.5850 as higher oil prices supported the Canadian Dollar. WTI crude trimmed intraday gains but stayed elevated around $97.80 a barrel. Prices were supported by supply worries linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Middle East Supply Risks

Reports said US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible strikes on energy infrastructure. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would fully shut the strait if the US proceeds, and reports also mentioned Washington weighing a ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. The ECB left interest rates unchanged last week and said the conflict in Iran has made the outlook “significantly more uncertain”. It also referred to “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth”, and officials are due to speak later on Monday. The Canadian Dollar is influenced by Bank of Canada interest rates, oil prices, inflation, economic data, market risk appetite, and the trade balance. The BoC targets inflation at 1–3% and can also use quantitative easing or tightening to affect credit conditions. Looking back to early 2025, we saw EUR/CAD struggling near 1.5850, a level largely dictated by geopolitical fears driving oil prices. Today, the pair is trading in a completely different environment, hovering around 1.4720 as market dynamics have fundamentally shifted. The key tension from last year between high oil prices and a hawkish European Central Bank has now dissipated.

Shift In Market Drivers

The extreme supply concerns that pushed West Texas Intermediate crude toward $98 a barrel in 2025 have since eased. With Middle East tensions de-escalated, WTI is now trading at a more stable $78 per barrel. This has removed a major pillar of support for the Canadian dollar that we saw last year, changing the calculus for the pair. On the monetary policy front, the situation has also inverted from what we observed in 2025. Last year, traders were betting on ECB rate hikes to fight inflation, but with Eurozone inflation now down to 2.4%, the ECB is holding rates steady and markets are beginning to price in cuts for late this year. This has capped any significant strength in the Euro, a stark contrast to the hawkish expectations of the past. The Bank of Canada faces a similar, yet slightly different, picture, with domestic inflation proving a bit more persistent at 2.7% as of the latest reading. This suggests the BoC may be slower to cut interest rates than the ECB, providing a subtle, underlying support for the Canadian dollar relative to the Euro. This policy divergence is now a more critical driver for the pair than the price of oil. Given this backdrop of lower oil prices and a looming rate-cutting cycle, implied volatility in EUR/CAD options has fallen considerably from the highs of 2025. Traders should consider strategies that benefit from range-bound price action and lower volatility, such as selling straddles or strangles. For those with a directional view, buying long-dated puts on EUR/CAD could be a way to position for a scenario where the ECB cuts rates before the Bank of Canada. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The International Energy Agency’s chief, Fatih Birol, said he is consulting governments worldwide about further releases from oil stockpiles if needed. He said there is no specific crude price level that would trigger additional releases. He described the situation in the Middle East as severe and said the crisis is worse than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined. He said reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the single biggest solution to current problems.

Global Supply Stress And Policy Response

He said fuel shortages are an increasing issue in Asia. He also said the Australian government is working to increase fuel stock levels. He said at least 40 energy assets in the region are severely or very severely damaged across nine countries. After the comments, crude prices edged higher, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.66% at $97.85. The ongoing situation in the Middle East has created a severe supply shock, which is the primary driver of current market dynamics. We are seeing West Texas Intermediate crude holding firm above $115 per barrel, even after a coordinated release of 90 million barrels in January 2026 failed to sustainably lower prices. The market now understands that strategic reserves are a temporary patch, not a solution to the physical bottleneck. Volatility is extremely high, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) consistently trading above 60, a level indicating significant market stress. This makes purchasing options costly, so traders should consider strategies that benefit from this, such as selling premium through credit spreads or covered calls. The high cost of insurance itself reflects the market’s deep uncertainty about the near-term supply outlook.

Market Structure And Trading Implications

Any new discussions about releasing more oil stocks should be viewed as a signal to expect a short-term dip in prices. However, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz still under 20% of their pre-crisis levels, any such price weakness will likely be met with strong buying. The core issue of 40 damaged energy assets and a blocked strait means the structural deficit remains firmly in place. The futures curve is in a state of steep backwardation, where near-term contracts are much more expensive than long-term ones. This structure, which we expect to persist, clearly shows the acute shortage for immediate physical delivery. Calendar spread trades, which profit from this shape, should remain a core strategy until there is a clear path to reopening the key waterway. Looking back from the relative stability of early 2025, the market assumptions we held then are now completely irrelevant. We have shifted from a demand-focused environment to a supply-driven crisis worse than those of the 1970s. The current crisis is defined by physical infrastructure damage and geopolitical stalemate, not just production cuts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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