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Buyers lead USDCHF as price stays above 0.8102 support, but sellers restrict gains
The USDCHF pair has recently risen, breaking through important levels at 0.80628 and 0.8155. The support level at 0.8102 is crucial for keeping buyers in control, with hopes for a breakout above 0.8155.
The increase moved past resistance near 0.80628 and went above the 38.2% retracement level at 0.8102. This encouraged further buying, pushing the pair towards a swing area between 0.81468 and 0.81554, where selling pressure capped gains.
Russian Central Bank reserves increase to $695.5 billion from $683.7 billion
Russia’s Central Bank reserves have risen to $695.5 billion from $683.7 billion. This increase reflects the country’s economic activities and management of its foreign reserves.
The AUD/USD pair has dropped to around five-week lows, trading between 0.6430 and 0.6420. The strength of the US Dollar is pressuring this pair due to strong economic data and ongoing trade concerns.
The EUR/USD pair has reversed its downward trend and is now at 1.1460. Despite the US Dollar’s continued strength, the Euro has gained thanks to trade discussions and the latest Federal Reserve meeting.
Gold Resistance Near $3,300
Gold prices are hitting resistance near $3,300 per troy ounce. This comes as US yields decline and the US Dollar shows minimal losses, affecting gold’s upward trend. Ripple (XRP) has seen a slight decline to $3.09, struggling to break above $3.32. This shift in market sentiment follows the recent interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee is divided over the risks associated with tariffs. There’s an ongoing debate about whether tariffs impact labor markets or inflation rates more significantly.Volatility and Market Strategy
The Fed’s internal conflict over tariffs is causing notable market volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected market turbulence, is approaching 25, a level not seen since early 2024. This indicates we should prepare for larger price movements by exploring options strategies, like straddles on major indices. In the case of EUR/USD, its rise to 1.1460, despite a strong dollar, is an interesting situation. This strength is likely tied to Eurozone industrial production figures, which were up 0.5% compared to forecasts for June 2025. This could make short-term call options on the Euro an appealing opportunity, betting that this strength will continue against the greenback. On the other hand, the Australian Dollar is taking a hit, dropping to 0.6430. This decline is worsened by a recent 7% fall in iron ore prices, a vital export for Australia, over the last month. We should consider buying put options on the AUD/USD due to pressure from both a strong US dollar and weak commodity fundamentals. Gold’s upward momentum appears to be stalling near the $3,300 per ounce mark, a key psychological level. After a significant rally from below $2,800 earlier this year, we should expect a period of consolidation. This offers an opportunity to sell covered calls against existing gold positions to earn income while awaiting a stronger move. In the cryptocurrency market, Ripple’s inability to surpass $3.32 indicates weakening buying pressure. This comes as the market reacts cautiously to the Fed’s recent interest rate decision and suggests ongoing regulatory discussions. We should consider shorting XRP futures if the price falls below the key support level of $3.00 in the coming weeks. Finally, the increase in Russia’s central bank reserves to nearly $700 billion shows its strong economic position. This significant buffer suggests that making aggressive bets against the Russian Ruble could be a high-risk strategy. It implies that their currency is likely to remain more stable than many expect, and derivative trades should be structured with this stability in mind. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.A clear financial strategy is essential for achieving your dream retirement lifestyle.
Retirement planning begins with a personal vision, like living by a lake, traveling, or working on projects you love. This vision helps set financial goals and motivates you to save. To make these dreams happen, you need to know the right financial numbers, including costs, yearly expenses, where you’ll live, and when you plan to retire.
Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) are crucial for achieving retirement goals. They provide tax benefits through either Traditional or Roth accounts. Traditional IRAs allow tax-deductible contributions, while Roth IRAs provide tax-free withdrawals under certain conditions. Both types use compound interest and market growth to build your savings.
Aligning IRAs With Objectives
To align an IRA with your retirement goals, create a smart strategy. Adjust how your assets are allocated based on your timeline and risk tolerance. As retirement approaches, shift from stocks to more stable investments. Make regular, automatic contributions and use catch-up allowances if you qualify. Integrating IRAs with other retirement plans like 401(k)s is also essential. Social Security benefits offer a minimum income, and waiting to claim them can increase your benefits. Striking a balance between IRA withdrawals and Social Security can optimize taxes and secure consistent income. Regularly review your plan and adapt it to life changes. A solid IRA strategy helps turn retirement dreams into reality with thoughtful financial choices. The retirement visions of many people are reshaping the broader market. Baby boomers are retiring at an increasing rate, as shown by the July 2025 labor statistics. This trend, which began after the pandemic, is leading to a significant shift from growth-oriented funds to safer, income-generating assets. This is a direct consequence of de-risking in IRAs and 401(k)s. The demand for stable returns is rising as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady in the first half of 2025. The growing retiree population is eager for yield, making any future comments from the Fed about rate cuts much more influential. It would be wise to position derivative plays on rate-sensitive instruments like Treasury bond futures to capture any upcoming market volatility.Positioning For Long Term Stability
We should consider investing in sectors that behave like annuities, such as utilities and healthcare. The consistent flow of capital into these areas is forming a strong upward trend. For example, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) outperformed the S&P 500 in the second quarter of 2025. We are inclined to look for long calls or bullish put spreads in these sectors, believing that the demand for dividends and stability will persist. On the other hand, we see weakness in high-beta growth stocks that don’t pay dividends. There’s clear evidence of capital leaving these stocks, with the Investment Company Institute reporting a historic $50 billion shift from growth to value and bond funds just last month. This marks a noticeable change from the trends that dominated the market in 2023 and 2024. This underlying shift suggests that market volatility may seem low right now. The VIX index has remained in the low teens, but the changes happening beneath the surface could lead to sharp corrections in overvalued sectors. Buying inexpensive, out-of-the-money VIX call options for the upcoming months could be a smart hedge against this potential instability. Our core strategy is to ride this large, slow-moving wave of retirement capital. These shifts are not just short-lived news events but significant structural changes tied to how millions are managing their IRAs as they approach retirement. We believe that the trend of prioritizing security over growth will define the market leadership for the rest of the year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Major indices decline as S&P and NASDAQ post losses, while Figma sees gains
The main US stock indices have lost their earlier gains. The NASDAQ index, which went up by 327.81 points, is now down 5 points, or 0.02%, at 21,123. The S&P index dropped by 16.38 points, or 0.26%, sitting at 6,346.52 after an earlier increase of 64.12 points. The Dow industrial average fell by 237.15 points, or 0.54%, to 44,220, having previously gained 204.54 points.
Amazon and Apple are in focus as they are set to report earnings after the market closes. Amazon’s shares have risen by 1.49%, while Apple’s have decreased by 0.53%. Microsoft shares gained $20, a 3.96% increase, although they hit session highs of $42.21 at one point. Meta’s shares rose by $80 or 11.53%, reaching a peak increase of $89.54.
The Nasdaq Decline And Stock Performances
Recent updates show that the NASDAQ index has dropped by another 30 points, or 0.14%, and the S&P has fallen by 23 points, or 0.37%. The Figma IPO started strong, opening at $85 and now trading at $109.58, up from its initial price of $33 a share. Today’s inability of the market to maintain its morning gains is a warning sign for the weeks ahead. We see less confidence as sellers take charge, turning a potentially strong session into a negative one for major indices. This shift points to buyer fatigue. With Amazon and Apple set to announce earnings after the close, we can expect increased market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped over 12% today to reach 17.5, showing that traders are expecting significant price movements. This is the highest level for the VIX in over a month, indicating rising fear. For those trading derivatives, it may be wise to buy protection. Options like puts on broad market ETFs such as SPY and QQQ can protect against a downturn that could extend for more than one day. Today’s market activity suggests the beginning of a broader risk-off trend. This pullback occurs despite the S&P 500 being up over 15% since the start of 2025, indicating classic profit-taking. We’ve seen a similar pattern of market weakness in late summer 2023 after a strong rally in the first half. Historically, this kind of volatility might persist through August.Market Weakness And Trading Strategies
The decline in major companies like Microsoft and Meta, which have reversed much of their initial gains, signals further bearish sentiment. Traders may want to consider selling call spreads on these stocks, suggesting limited near-term upside. Their inability to drive the market higher is a significant issue for the rally. However, the strong performance of the Figma IPO indicates that speculative investment has not vanished from the market. This creates a challenging situation; while the broader market is weak, certain stocks still attract major interest. Traders need to be selective and not assume all stocks will move in unison. In the coming weeks, it’s wise to be cautious with long positions and explore strategies that profit from falling prices or rising volatility. Employing options collars to safeguard current stock positions can be a smart way to remain invested while shielding against a deeper market correction this summer. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Figma’s IPO starts trading at around $85, raising $1.2 billion and estimating a $19.3 billion valuation
Figma’s IPO started at around $90, with the initial share price set at $33. There was a huge demand, with 40 buyers for every share available. The share began trading at about $85 and reached a high of $93.50.
The IPO raised about $1.2 billion, valuing Figma at $19.3 billion. This value is close to Adobe’s earlier $20 billion acquisition offer. Figma’s expected revenue this year is around $1 billion, with projections of $1.5 billion for next year.
Figma is a cloud-based platform for collaborative UI/UX design, prototyping, and connecting developers. It offers tools like Figma Design for design work and FigJam for brainstorming. Dev Mode links design with code.
At a share price of $85-$90, Figma’s market capitalization is about $50-55 billion, which is 30 times the predicted sales for next year. Other companies with similar public valuations include Workday and TE Connectivity, while private companies like Databricks and Anthropic also match this level.
Figma’s IPO opening near $90 after a $33 price indicates high volatility. The trading halt at $93.50 shows this, meaning options premiums will be very high due to increased implied volatility. For traders, selling options through strategies like covered calls or cash-secured puts could be more appealing than purchasing costly options.
The valuation at nearly 30 times next year’s predicted sales presents a significant premium. Looking back at the tech downturn in 2022 and the software price drops seen in early 2025, companies with high valuations often face declines. This suggests that bearish strategies, like buying put spreads to limit risk, might be wise to guard against a potential price drop.
However, the 40-to-1 oversubscription indicates strong institutional interest that shouldn’t be overlooked. Stocks like Snowflake maintained high valuations for months after their 2020 IPO, supported by strong growth stories. Traders who anticipate this momentum could use bull call spreads to benefit from potential gains while limiting entry costs.
An important event approaching is the IPO lock-up expiration, typically 90 to 180 days after the IPO. This usually means more shares enter the market, which can drive the stock price down. Data from recent tech IPOs in the first half of 2025 showed an average decline of 6% around this time, highlighting a possible trading opportunity.
Given the mix of high valuation and strong demand, we can expect significant price fluctuations. This situation is perfect for volatility-based strategies like long straddles or strangles, which gain from major price movements in either direction. However, the high implied volatility means the stock will need to move significantly for these strategies to be profitable.
Market analysts speculate on a possible rate increase by the BoJ after policy discussions in October.
The USD/JPY exchange rate is getting close to 150.00. This follows comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that suggest they will be careful about raising interest rates. There were earlier hopes for a rate hike in October, but BoJ Governor Ueda made it clear that there’s no hurry to tighten monetary policy.
The BoJ’s recent outlook report highlights uncertainties. It notes higher CPI inflation estimates but also predicts slower economic growth in Japan due to both global and local factors. Right now, the USD/JPY pair, which fell during Asian trading hours, is climbing again towards the 150.00 level.
Currency Market Sentiment
The USD/JPY has not crossed 150.00 since April, when U.S. tariffs impacted feelings in the market. Although the USD has struggled this year, it has recently become the strongest currency among the G10. This reflects a shift back to U.S. assets after a recent period of selling. Analysts have revised the 1-month forecast for USD/JPY to 148.00. If the current views on BoJ rate hikes remain unchanged, they expect USD/JPY to stabilize around 145.00 in three months. A surge in short-covering has helped the USD, leading to these new forecasts. As of today, July 31, 2025, the USD/JPY is nearing the 150 level, largely due to the significant gap in interest rates. The U.S. Federal Funds Rate is above 5%, while the BoJ’s rate is just above zero. This gap makes it beneficial to hold dollars instead of yen, boosting the carry trade. The BoJ is hesitant to act due to Japan’s economic data. For instance, July’s Tokyo Core CPI inflation was 2.8%, but Japan’s GDP shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter. This weak growth gives the BoJ good reasons to keep rates low and avoid harming the economy.Risks of Government Intervention
However, we should stay alert for possible action from Japanese officials as we approach the 150 mark. Many recall the Ministry of Finance’s direct intervention in the currency market during fall 2022, and their strong warnings in 2024 to support the yen. This history suggests that buying USD/JPY aggressively above 150 could be risky, as authorities might intervene at any moment. For those trading derivatives, buying call options might be a smarter choice than purchasing the currency pair directly. Call options allow you to profit if USD/JPY rises while limiting your losses to the premium paid if the government steps in and the rate drops sharply. Rising implied volatility shows the real risk of a sudden policy shift from Tokyo. Looking ahead, the easiest direction for USD/JPY seems to be upward, especially as traders who short the dollar buy back their positions. Still, we should keep in mind the three-month forecast of 145.00, indicating that the market expects either a policy change or a weaker U.S. economy later this year. This suggests that while there may be short-term profits, preparing bearish positions for autumn with put options could also be a wise strategy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Core PCE inflation in the US stays at 2.8% as annual inflation rises to 2.6%
The core PCE inflation in the US stayed steady at 2.8% in June, matching last month’s rate. This is higher than what analysts expected, which was 2.7%.
The overall PCE Price Index rose to 2.6% in June, up from a revised 2.4% in May. This increase was greater than the predicted 2.5%.
Month On Month Data
Both the PCE Price Index and its core version went up by 0.3% from the previous month. Personal Income and Spending also grew by 0.3% in June. After the data came out, the US Dollar Index remained stable, trading around 99.90. The US dollar showed strength against the euro but fluctuated against other major currencies. Knowing inflation metrics like PCE and CPI is essential for economic analysis. Inflation affects a currency’s value. Generally, higher inflation leads central banks to raise interest rates, which can strengthen the currency by attracting more investment. On the other hand, inflation impacts gold prices by influencing interest rates. High rates can make gold less attractive compared to assets that earn interest, while lower rates can boost its appeal.Fed Policy And Market Impact
With June’s inflation data in hand, it’s likely the Federal Reserve will continue its “higher for longer” approach to interest rates. The core PCE staying at 2.8% makes a rate cut unlikely in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has mostly eliminated the chance of a rate cut at the September 2025 meeting, with the likelihood of holding rates climbing to over 90%. This supports our belief that the US dollar will remain strong, particularly against currencies from central banks that are less aggressive. Recent manufacturing PMI data from Germany showed a contraction at 48.5 earlier this month, indicating that the European Central Bank may need to consider easing its policies sooner than the Fed. We see potential in buying call options on the US dollar or put options on the EUR/USD pair to take advantage of this difference. The outlook for gold isn’t as bright since it doesn’t yield returns. With the 10-year Treasury yield holding steady above 4.1% after this report, the cost of holding gold has risen. We observed a similar trend in late 2023 when ongoing inflation kept rates high, putting pressure on gold prices. This situation creates uncertainty for equity indexes, which could lead to volatility in the coming weeks. While strong consumer spending is good for corporate earnings, the expectation of continued high interest rates could hinder company valuations. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has been around a low of 14, indicating that the market might be underestimating the risk of a significant change following the next major economic data release. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The White House press secretary announced new tariffs will be implemented soon after correspondence.
New reciprocal tariffs will take effect on Friday. Countries that haven’t received notifications about these tariffs will get an Executive Order or a letter by tonight.
Recent talks have been fruitful, especially with South Korea. We are also making progress in discussions with China, maintaining direct communication with their representatives.
Preparing for Market Volatility
With these new tariffs coming this Friday, we expect market volatility to rise sharply. This uncertainty usually increases the VIX, so we plan to buy August VIX call options to protect ourselves. The VIX has been relatively stable around 15 for the past month, making options affordable before the news hits. We need to pinpoint the sectors most vulnerable to these new trade barriers. Companies in the industrial and technology sectors, especially those with complex global supply chains, face the highest risk of decreased profits. Considering put options on ETFs like XLI or semiconductor funds in the coming weeks could help safeguard against a sudden market drop. The mixed signals regarding China—suggesting both progress and new tariffs—make the situation unclear. This could lead to a significant shift in Chinese equities once the details of the tariffs are unveiled. A straddle on an ETF like FXI would enable us to benefit from any large price change, regardless of whether it goes up or down.Possible Effects on Asian Markets
Positive news with South Korea positions them as a likely winner in this scenario. We could consider a pair trade, going long on the South Korean market through the EWY ETF while shorting an index of other Asian markets that might face new limits. We should keep an eye on the Korean won for strength relative to other regional currencies. This news comes at a sensitive time for the broader economy, as recent data for Q2 2025 shows US GDP growth slowing to just 1.6%. The trade disputes of 2018 and 2019 led to a similar economic slowdown. Tariffs act like a tax on businesses and consumers, which could jeopardize the fragile growth we’ve seen since inflation eased in 2024. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Trump warns 17 pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices and follow international pricing deadlines
President Trump has called on 17 pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices in the U.S., which are reportedly higher than those in other developed countries. A new Executive Order aims to enforce Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) drug pricing for Americans, targeting Medicaid and newly launched drugs.
The administration believes that lower drug prices internationally should benefit U.S. citizens. Companies must comply with these pricing guidelines by September 29, 2025. If they don’t, the administration will take action against what they describe as unfair pricing practices.
Key Demands and Compliance
The main demands include applying MFN pricing to Medicaid so that drug prices reflect the lowest rates globally. Newly launched drugs should also have MFN pricing across Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. Excess profits made abroad should be used to help American patients and taxpayers. The U.S. government intends to buy high-volume prescriptions at the same lower prices available internationally. Pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Regeneron, Merck, AstraZeneca, GSK, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Amgen, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, Novartis, Gilead Science, Boehringer Ingelheim, and EMD Serono, have received notices about these requirements and the approaching deadlines. With this clear warning to 17 major drugmakers, we should expect increased uncertainty in the pharmaceutical sector. This could offer opportunities for derivative traders, especially for stocks like Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Merck. The tight deadline of September 29, 2025, is likely to increase market anxiety in the coming weeks. Traders should consider protective put options for these specific stocks. This strategy will help safeguard against potential price drops if the market thinks these companies will have to reduce U.S. revenue. The market’s response to drug pricing talks under the Inflation Reduction Act in 2023 and 2024 showed significant challenges for the sector.Market Reaction and Strategic Insights
The threat to drug prices is credible since U.S. prices are demonstrably higher than in other countries. A recent RAND Corporation study showed that U.S. prices for brand-name drugs were, on average, 2.78 times higher than in similar OECD countries. This data supports the administration’s tough stance. Considering that the U.S. market accounts for over 50% of pharmaceutical profits for many companies, any forced price cuts could hurt their profits. Demanding MFN pricing for Medicaid would have an immediate financial impact. Therefore, we expect the market to factor in this risk before the September deadline. Traders should look for option contracts that expire after September 29 to capture the full outcome of this situation. Contracts with expirations in October and November 2025 will be particularly important, as they will show either relief from a resolution or consequences from government actions. We anticipate that implied volatility will peak in the last weeks of September. This political pressure affects the entire sector, not just the 17 companies mentioned. Traders can also use derivatives on ETFs like the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) to take advantage of broader market trends. Taking a bearish position on the sector index may be a smart way to reduce risks associated with specific company responses. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.New unemployment insurance applications in the US increased slightly to 218K, according to the DOL.
Initial jobless claims in the US slightly increased to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, up from 217,000 the week before. This number is lower than the initial estimate of 224,000 from the US Department of Labor.
The report indicated a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 1.3%. The four-week moving average dropped by 3,500 to 221,000 compared to the previous week’s average.
