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In June, the year-on-year price index for personal consumption expenditures in the US was 2.6%
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the United States for June rose by 2.6% compared to last year. This was higher than the expected 2.5%, showing that consumer prices increased during this month.
The EUR/USD currency pair moved upward, approaching the 1.1450 level, thanks to a weaker US dollar following positive employment and PCE data. In a similar trend, GBP/USD fluctuated and went slightly over 1.3200 after the US data was released.
Trump and Sheinbaum agree on a 90-day trade extension with tariffs after productive conversation
President Trump shared that he had a productive phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, aimed at improving understanding between the two countries. The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to continue their current trade terms for another 90 days. This includes a 25% tariff on fentanyl and cars, and a 50% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper.
In addition, Mexico will immediately eliminate its non-tariff trade barriers. Both countries plan to work on a more comprehensive trade agreement during this period or afterward.
Details of the U.S.-Mexico Agreement
The call included key U.S. officials such as Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both nations also pledged to collaborate on border security, drug trafficking, and illegal immigration. This agreement is a short-term solution, with more extensive discussions expected to take place leading up to or beyond the August 1 deadline. The 90-day delay on significant trade changes provides a brief period of stability. This should reduce uncertainty in key sectors over the next few weeks and delay the threat of a trade war from the August 1 deadline. The auto sector, which depends on Mexico for about 40% of its parts, can now feel more secure. We expect stocks in companies like Ford and GM to rally soon, making short-term call options appealing. This relief follows months of concern, especially since trade in vehicles and parts surpassed $180 billion in 2024.Implications of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
The continuation of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum will support U.S. producers like U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, helping their stock prices remain stable. However, these high tariffs could be used as negotiation tools that might disappear, posing risks three months from now. With Mexico removing non-tariff barriers and extending the deal, the peso may strengthen against the dollar in the short term. Yet, we recall the significant fluctuations in the USD/MXN exchange rate during the 2017-2018 USMCA talks, so this stability is not guaranteed. True volatility may return as the 90-day deadline nears in late October. The best approach is to keep an eye on the October deadline and prepare for potential volatility in contracts expiring in late October and November. Purchasing straddles or strangles on ETFs like XME (metals) or the peso (through PEX) may yield returns, as either a final agreement or a breakdown could trigger a major market move. For the broader market, we anticipate the VIX to decrease from recent highs as this risk is temporarily set aside. This presents an opportunity to buy cheaper, long-term VIX call options, essentially betting on a resurgence of market anxiety. While the market enjoys a summer lull, tensions are likely to rise again in the fall during crucial trade negotiations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Meta and Microsoft exceed earnings expectations, boosting stock prices and advancing AI strategies
Meta’s revenue for the quarter hit $47.52 billion, up 22% from last year and exceeding expectations of $44.8 billion. Earnings per share were even better than forecasted, reaching $7.14, a 38% increase compared to the projected $5.90–$6.00.
Ad revenue grew by over 21%, with user growth steady at 3.48 billion daily active users. Meta updated its Q3 revenue outlook to about $50.5 billion and raised its full-year capital expenditure to $72 billion. As a result, the stock rose by 11.62% to $775.88.
Strong Performance from Microsoft
Microsoft also reported impressive results, with revenue of $76.44 billion, an 18% increase from last year. Its earnings per share were $3.65, higher than the estimated $3.35 and a 24% year-over-year rise. Demand for Azure, driven by cloud and AI services, spiked over 30%. For the next fiscal year, Microsoft plans to invest $120 billion in capital expenditure, up from $88 billion last year. The company’s stock hit a record intraday high of $555.45 before closing at $536, a 4.6% increase. Its market value briefly exceeded $4 trillion, right behind Nvidia. Although Meta and Microsoft are both players in AI, they have different focuses: Meta is centered on social media and advertising, while Microsoft excels in enterprise software and cloud services. They lead the AI market but don’t compete directly like Meta and Google or Microsoft and Amazon Web Services.Implied Volatility Decreases
The strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft confirm that AI spending is more robust than ever. This trend is translating into real revenue and profits. We’re noticing implied volatility drop, with the VIX recently hitting a 12-month low of 11.5, indicating that traders feel confident and are not worried about a sudden downturn. With Meta’s shares breaking the $748 resistance level, this mark becomes an important support point. A similar breakout occurred in late 2024, which led to a sustained 15% rally over the next month. Selling put spreads for August or September with a short strike around $740 could be a strategy to earn premiums while betting that this new support holds. Microsoft’s push above its previous $518 high is a significant bullish sign, despite a slight pullback from session highs. The options market confirms this with call volume for August more than double the daily average, showing strong bullish interest. Selling puts below the new $518 support level seems like a smart move, capitalizing on the increased confidence. The large capital expenditure announcements are viewed as a sign of strength rather than a cash flow burden. Together, Meta and Microsoft are investing nearly $200 billion this year, reinforcing their positions as industry leaders. For options traders, this means we can expect higher implied volatility around future earnings dates, creating opportunities for strategies like straddles if big moves are anticipated. While the trend appears to be upward, it’s crucial to monitor those breakout levels closely. If Meta fails to hold $736 or Microsoft drops below $518, it could signal that this rally is losing momentum. This would be a good time to consider taking profits on bullish positions or even starting small, short-term bearish plays. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surpasses expectations at 2.8%
The United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose by 2.8% in June compared to last year, surpassing the expected 2.7%. This might indicate underlying inflation trends that experts are keeping an eye on for economic forecasts.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair is nearing the 1.1450 level, reacting to changes in the US Dollar’s strength and new economic reports. The GBP/USD pair is also fluctuating, staying above 1.3200 after earlier losses, influenced by overall US Dollar trends.
Gold And Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Gold is facing downward pressure, currently around $3,300 per troy ounce, partly due to falling US yields. Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has been steady between $116,000 and $120,000 for over two weeks, with increased activity from large investors and positive news regarding regulations. In finance, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is discussing how tariff changes might impact the US economy, balancing labor market risks with potential inflation concerns. Many brokers are offering favorable trading conditions for major currencies and commodities, emphasizing low spreads and effective trading platforms. With the Core PCE inflation at 2.8%, it’s likely that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive stance soon. This persistent inflation echoes the 2022-2023 era, when similar surprises pushed the Fed to take decisive action. This suggests that despite worries about the labor market, priority will return to managing prices. The US Dollar is poised to strengthen due to these inflation concerns, creating chances in the forex markets. Although EUR/USD is currently climbing, it may be a bull trap, making it worthwhile to consider buying put options that target a decline below 1.1300. Historically, high US inflation data, like the readings from mid-2022, often leads to a multi-week rally in the Dollar Index (DXY), which typically pushes currency pairs down.Market Speculations And Strategic Movements
Likewise, we should keep an eye on the volatile GBP/USD pair for signs of weakness. Its status above 1.3200 may not last if the dollar enters a sustained rally driven by rate hike expectations. Upcoming FOMC discussions on tariffs will likely enhance this volatility, making protective puts a wise choice. For gold, the downward pressure is notable even with decreasing US yields. This suggests that the market is focusing on the strong dollar narrative, making gold pricier for foreign buyers. We encountered a similar situation in late 2024, where the rising dollar overshadowed any yield support, indicating we should expect further weakness below the $3,300 mark. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin’s stability presents a unique opportunity. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that realized volatility has recently dropped to a two-year low, a condition that often precedes significant price movements. Given the positive sentiment, we might consider using call options to get ready for a breakout above the $120,000 resistance level with managed risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Personal spending in the United States missed expectations, reporting 0.3% instead of 0.4%
US personal spending rose by 0.3% in June, slightly below the expected 0.4%. This suggests a small increase in consumer spending for that month.
The EUR/USD pair is on the rise, hitting 1.1450 as the US Dollar weakens. This comes after the Federal Reserve’s recent decision and positive US employment and PCE data.
Euro And Pound Market Movements
GBP/USD showed mixed results, staying around 1.3200 after a dip to 1.3180. Factors from the US economy are influencing these changes. Gold is facing selling pressure and struggling to surpass $3,300 per troy ounce. This trend matches the drop in US yields and a slightly weaker US Dollar. Bitcoin is holding steady in the $116,000-$120,000 range, supported by ongoing purchases from major investors. Improved regulatory clarity and new financial partnerships are boosting market confidence.Federal Reserve And Future Market Strategies
The FOMC is split on how tariffs may affect the economy, weighing the risks to labor markets against inflation concerns. It’s important to grasp these dynamics for future policy. The slight miss in US personal spending hints at more cautious consumers. June 2025 data revealed that the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, dropped to 2.6% year-over-year, its lowest since early 2024. This trend, combined with the divided FOMC, suggests we should explore strategies that benefit from a pause in rate hikes, as the case for further tightening weakens. The gap between central banks presents a key opportunity. With EUR/USD moving to 1.1450, recent comments from the ECB on July 28th, 2025, suggested another rate hike might be considered to combat stubborn services inflation in the Eurozone. We think buying long call options on the EUR/USD could effectively capitalize on the growing policy gap between a cautious Fed and a determined ECB. For GBP/USD, recent volatility reflects significant uncertainty within the Bank of England. The last policy meeting on July 17th, 2025, ended in a close 5-4 vote to maintain rates, highlighting disagreements over the UK’s economic direction. Because of this uncertainty, we believe that buying options strategies like straddles could be beneficial, as they can profit from a significant price movement in either direction once policy becomes clearer. Gold’s struggle to break above $3,300, even with a weaker dollar, indicates profit-taking after a strong rally. Historical patterns from 2020-2022 show that consolidation often follows major upticks; recent CME data reveals a 5% drop in open interest for gold futures over the last two weeks, supporting this perspective. We may consider selling out-of-the-money call options to generate income while waiting for a decisive breakout. Bitcoin’s price stability above $116,000 appears supported by significant purchasing activity. On-chain data from July 30th, 2025, showed that addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC added a net 45,000 coins this month, indicating strong accumulation by large players. Selling cash-secured puts with strike prices near the lower end of the current range could be a smart approach to either earn premium or acquire the asset at a support level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Microsoft and Meta’s strong performances boost optimism in technology sectors in a mixed market
The stock market is showing mixed results today. The technology and communication services sectors are seeing some growth. Microsoft has risen by 4.91%, likely due to new product launches or partnerships.
Broadcom, on the other hand, fell slightly by 0.73%. In contrast, Nvidia gained 1.17%, showing strength in the semiconductor market. Meta had a significant increase of 11.88%, possibly due to strong quarterly results or optimistic forecasts.
Amazon and UnitedHealth Updates
Amazon saw a 1.10% increase, which reflects positive trends in e-commerce. However, UnitedHealth’s stock dropped by 3.67%, raising some concerns in the healthcare sector. The current market atmosphere is cautiously optimistic, especially in technology and internet-related areas. The performance of companies like Microsoft and Meta shows confidence in tech advancements and digital growth. However, the challenges faced in healthcare point to worries about regulations or operational issues. For those adjusting their investment portfolios, the technology and communication sectors may offer good growth opportunities. Staying informed about news specific to these sectors is crucial, as it can affect market trends. Diversifying investments is also important to reduce volatility, balancing growth with safer investments. With Meta’s stock jumping over 11% today, we can expect high implied volatility for its options. This situation could benefit premium sellers, as we anticipate a period of stability may follow such a significant one-day change. Traders might want to consider selling out-of-the-money strangles for the upcoming weekly or monthly expirations to take advantage of the heightened volatility.Microsoft Growth and Trading Strategy
Microsoft’s steady 4.9% increase comes just after their quarterly report this week, which showed Azure cloud services with a strong 35% year-over-year revenue growth. This signals solid fundamentals, suggesting that buying call options with late August or September expirations could be a good way to capture continued momentum. The lower implied volatility compared to Meta makes this a more straightforward play. In the semiconductor sector, there’s a clear preference for AI leaders like Nvidia. Although we remember the volatility spikes around its earnings reports in 2024, its current strength indicates confidence in its upcoming product cycle. One strategy could be to buy call options on NVDA while also considering put options on weaker stocks like Broadcom to take advantage of this disparity. The significant 3.67% drop in UnitedHealth reflects new market jitters, especially with recent news about a possible investigation by the Department of Justice into billing practices in the industry. This uncertainty is likely to keep options premiums high, making it appealing for traders who believe the stock might keep falling or remain stable. We are thinking about buying puts for downside protection or selling call credit spreads if we think the sell-off has been overdone. Overall, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the VIX around a moderate 18. This situation doesn’t make broad-market hedges cheap, but the memory of quick sector rotations back in 2024 reminds us to stay prepared. We believe utilizing strength in tech to finance protective puts on the broader market or weaker sectors is a smart strategy for the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USDCAD sees sixth straight day of gains, backed by buyers above key averages
USDCAD has been on an upward trend for over six days, climbing from a low of 1.3575 on July 23 to a peak of 1.3853. This gain totals about 278 pips.
Recently, the pair broke out of a two-month consolidation, surpassing the June high of 1.37955 and moving above the 100-day moving average at 1.38233. Although it briefly dipped to 1.3813, it quickly bounced back and stayed above the 100-day moving average.
North American Session Analysis
In the North American session, the price retested a level at 1.38268, just above the moving average, showing it has support. Staying above 1.38233 indicates strong bullish control, which gives buyers confidence. The close yesterday at 1.38292 created a support zone. If USDCAD drops below this level and the 100-day moving average, attention will shift back to the old resistance ceiling and the June high at 1.37955. Falling back into the previous range could put the recent breakout at risk. We’re seeing a strong bullish breakout in USDCAD, which has risen for six consecutive days. The pair is solidly above the 100-day moving average at 1.38233, which is now a critical support level. As long as the price remains above this mark, we expect bullish momentum to grow in the upcoming weeks.Upcoming Economic Indicators
This strength comes from different economic signals. Recent data showed that Canadian retail sales for June slowed more than expected, raising concerns about the domestic economy. At the same time, WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 4% in the past week, falling below $80 per barrel, which negatively impacts the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Looking ahead, everyone is focused on the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report for July, set to release next week. Market speculation suggests a strong number is expected, which would support the Federal Reserve’s current policy and further strengthen the US dollar. This contrasts with rising expectations that the Bank of Canada may need to ease if its economic data continues to weaken. For traders looking for more gains, buying call options is a straightforward way to take advantage of the upside. With the recent sharp move, implied volatility is likely up, so using bull call spreads could be a more cost-effective strategy to aim for a move towards 1.4000 while managing risk. These positions would benefit if the pair continues to rise after the recent breakout. To manage risk, we should keep a close eye on the 1.38233 level. A sustained drop below this moving average and the previous resistance at 1.37955 would indicate a failed breakout. In that case, buying put options could provide a good hedge against long positions or serve as a bet on the pair returning to its earlier trading range. Historically, similar breakouts in USDCAD, like the one in late 2024, often paused to consolidate gains before continuing upward. Traders should not be overly worried about small pullbacks as long as key support levels hold. This pattern suggests that patience may be needed before the next significant move in the trend unfolds. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Meta and Microsoft’s earnings reports surpass expectations, lifting stock prices and advancing AI strategies
Meta’s revenue for the quarter was $47.52 billion, marking a 22% increase compared to last year and exceeding predictions of $44.8 billion. Earnings per share also beat expectations, coming in at $7.14, up 38% from the anticipated $5.90–$6.00.
Ad revenue increased by more than 21%, and user engagement remained strong with 3.48 billion daily active users. Meta has updated its guidance for Q3 revenue to potentially reach $50.5 billion and raised full-year capital expenditure to $72 billion. Following this news, the stock rose by 11.62% to $775.88.
Strong Performance from Microsoft
Microsoft reported strong results as well, with revenue at $76.44 billion, an 18% increase from last year. Its earnings per share rose to $3.65, above the estimated $3.35 and up 24% year-over-year. The demand for Azure, powered by cloud and AI infrastructure, increased by over 30%. For the upcoming fiscal year, Microsoft plans to allocate $120 billion for capital expenditures, up from $88 billion last year. The stock reached a record high of $555.45 during the day but closed at $536, a 4.6% increase. The market cap briefly exceeded $4 trillion, closely following Nvidia. While Meta and Microsoft compete in AI, they have different focuses. Meta is centered on social media and advertising, while Microsoft excels in enterprise software and cloud services. Both are leaders in the AI field without direct competition like Meta versus Google or Microsoft versus Amazon Web Services.Implied Volatility Decreases
The strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft reinforce the narrative that AI spending is more solid than ever. This is not just hype; it is turning into actual revenue and profits. We have observed a drop in implied volatility, with the VIX recently hitting a 12-month low of 11.5, indicating that traders are confident and not fearing an imminent decline. With Meta’s shares breaking decisively above the $748 resistance level, this support becomes important. We saw a similar breakout pattern in late 2024 that led to a consistent 15% rally in the following month. Selling put spreads for August or September, with a short strike around $740, could be a smart way to earn premiums while betting that this support holds. Microsoft’s breakout above its previous high of $518 is also a strong bullish sign, despite a slight pullback from its peak. The options market confirms this, as call volume for August expiration has surged to over double the daily average, highlighting strong bullish bets. A strategy of selling puts below the new $518 support level appears wise, taking advantage of the rising confidence. The significant capital expenditure announcements are seen as a sign of strength, not a burden on cash flow. The total spending between the two companies is now nearly $200 billion for the year, bolstering the narrative that they are the clear leaders in the field. For derivative traders, this suggests we should see elevated implied volatility around upcoming earnings, opening up opportunities for strategies like straddles if you anticipate significant movements. While the overall trend appears to be upward, we must monitor these key breakout levels closely. If Meta fails to maintain $736 or Microsoft drops below $518, it could indicate that this rally phase is ending. That would be a signal to consider taking profits on bullish positions or initiating short-term bearish strategies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds expectations at 2.8%
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the United States rose by 2.8% in June compared to last year, surpassing the expected increase of 2.7%. This rise may indicate trends in underlying inflation, which is closely watched for economic forecasts.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair is approaching the 1.1450 level, reacting to changes in the US Dollar’s strength and recent economic indicators. The GBP/USD pair is also showing fluctuations, staying above 1.3200 after initial drops, influenced by the broader US Dollar trends.
Gold And Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Gold is currently facing downward pressure around $3,300 per troy ounce, driven by lower US yields. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has remained stable between $116,000 and $120,000 for over two weeks, experiencing increased activity from larger investors and favorable regulatory news. In finance, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is discussing how tariff changes impact the US economy, balancing labor market risks with potential inflation concerns. Many brokers provide attractive conditions for trading major currencies and commodities, offering low spreads and efficient platforms. With the Core PCE inflation at 2.8%, the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance soon. This persistent inflation is similar to the 2022-2023 period when unexpected data prompts the Fed to act decisively. Despite worries about the labor market, controlling prices will likely be the priority. The US Dollar might strengthen due to these inflation concerns, opening new opportunities in the forex market. While EUR/USD is currently rising, we see this as a potential bull trap, suggesting you might consider buying put options in case it falls below 1.1300. Historically, higher inflation data in the US has led to rallies in the Dollar Index (DXY), pushing other currency pairs down.Market Speculations And Strategic Movements
We should also monitor the GBP/USD pair for signs of weakness. Its current position above 1.3200 may not hold if the Dollar starts a strong rally driven by expectations of interest rate hikes. Upcoming FOMC discussions about tariffs could increase this volatility, so protective puts might be a wise choice. For gold, the downward pressure remains significant even with declining US yields. This indicates that the strong dollar narrative is dominating the market, making gold pricier for foreign buyers. We observed a similar situation in late 2024 when a rising dollar overcame support from yields, suggesting we might see gold weaken further below the $3,300 level. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin’s stability presents a distinctive opportunity. Data from analytics firm Glassnode highlights that realized volatility has recently dropped to a two-year low, often signaling a major price movement. Given the positive outlook, using call options might be a smart way to prepare for a breakout above the $120,000 resistance level with defined risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Personal spending in the United States falls short of expectations, showing 0.3% instead of 0.4%
US personal spending rose by 0.3% in June, which is below the expected 0.4%. This suggests that consumer spending is picking up slightly.
The EUR/USD pair shows upward movement, reaching 1.1450 due to a weaker US Dollar. This comes after the Federal Reserve’s latest decision and positive US employment and PCE data.
