Microsoft and Meta’s strong performances boost optimism in technology sectors in a mixed market
USDCAD sees sixth straight day of gains, backed by buyers above key averages
North American Session Analysis
In the North American session, the price retested a level at 1.38268, just above the moving average, showing it has support. Staying above 1.38233 indicates strong bullish control, which gives buyers confidence. The close yesterday at 1.38292 created a support zone. If USDCAD drops below this level and the 100-day moving average, attention will shift back to the old resistance ceiling and the June high at 1.37955. Falling back into the previous range could put the recent breakout at risk. We’re seeing a strong bullish breakout in USDCAD, which has risen for six consecutive days. The pair is solidly above the 100-day moving average at 1.38233, which is now a critical support level. As long as the price remains above this mark, we expect bullish momentum to grow in the upcoming weeks.Upcoming Economic Indicators
This strength comes from different economic signals. Recent data showed that Canadian retail sales for June slowed more than expected, raising concerns about the domestic economy. At the same time, WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 4% in the past week, falling below $80 per barrel, which negatively impacts the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Looking ahead, everyone is focused on the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report for July, set to release next week. Market speculation suggests a strong number is expected, which would support the Federal Reserve’s current policy and further strengthen the US dollar. This contrasts with rising expectations that the Bank of Canada may need to ease if its economic data continues to weaken. For traders looking for more gains, buying call options is a straightforward way to take advantage of the upside. With the recent sharp move, implied volatility is likely up, so using bull call spreads could be a more cost-effective strategy to aim for a move towards 1.4000 while managing risk. These positions would benefit if the pair continues to rise after the recent breakout. To manage risk, we should keep a close eye on the 1.38233 level. A sustained drop below this moving average and the previous resistance at 1.37955 would indicate a failed breakout. In that case, buying put options could provide a good hedge against long positions or serve as a bet on the pair returning to its earlier trading range. Historically, similar breakouts in USDCAD, like the one in late 2024, often paused to consolidate gains before continuing upward. Traders should not be overly worried about small pullbacks as long as key support levels hold. This pattern suggests that patience may be needed before the next significant move in the trend unfolds. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Meta and Microsoft’s earnings reports surpass expectations, lifting stock prices and advancing AI strategies
Strong Performance from Microsoft
Microsoft reported strong results as well, with revenue at $76.44 billion, an 18% increase from last year. Its earnings per share rose to $3.65, above the estimated $3.35 and up 24% year-over-year. The demand for Azure, powered by cloud and AI infrastructure, increased by over 30%. For the upcoming fiscal year, Microsoft plans to allocate $120 billion for capital expenditures, up from $88 billion last year. The stock reached a record high of $555.45 during the day but closed at $536, a 4.6% increase. The market cap briefly exceeded $4 trillion, closely following Nvidia. While Meta and Microsoft compete in AI, they have different focuses. Meta is centered on social media and advertising, while Microsoft excels in enterprise software and cloud services. Both are leaders in the AI field without direct competition like Meta versus Google or Microsoft versus Amazon Web Services.Implied Volatility Decreases
The strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft reinforce the narrative that AI spending is more solid than ever. This is not just hype; it is turning into actual revenue and profits. We have observed a drop in implied volatility, with the VIX recently hitting a 12-month low of 11.5, indicating that traders are confident and not fearing an imminent decline. With Meta’s shares breaking decisively above the $748 resistance level, this support becomes important. We saw a similar breakout pattern in late 2024 that led to a consistent 15% rally in the following month. Selling put spreads for August or September, with a short strike around $740, could be a smart way to earn premiums while betting that this support holds. Microsoft’s breakout above its previous high of $518 is also a strong bullish sign, despite a slight pullback from its peak. The options market confirms this, as call volume for August expiration has surged to over double the daily average, highlighting strong bullish bets. A strategy of selling puts below the new $518 support level appears wise, taking advantage of the rising confidence. The significant capital expenditure announcements are seen as a sign of strength, not a burden on cash flow. The total spending between the two companies is now nearly $200 billion for the year, bolstering the narrative that they are the clear leaders in the field. For derivative traders, this suggests we should see elevated implied volatility around upcoming earnings, opening up opportunities for strategies like straddles if you anticipate significant movements. While the overall trend appears to be upward, we must monitor these key breakout levels closely. If Meta fails to maintain $736 or Microsoft drops below $518, it could indicate that this rally phase is ending. That would be a signal to consider taking profits on bullish positions or initiating short-term bearish strategies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceeds expectations at 2.8%
Gold And Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Gold is currently facing downward pressure around $3,300 per troy ounce, driven by lower US yields. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has remained stable between $116,000 and $120,000 for over two weeks, experiencing increased activity from larger investors and favorable regulatory news. In finance, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is discussing how tariff changes impact the US economy, balancing labor market risks with potential inflation concerns. Many brokers provide attractive conditions for trading major currencies and commodities, offering low spreads and efficient platforms. With the Core PCE inflation at 2.8%, the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance soon. This persistent inflation is similar to the 2022-2023 period when unexpected data prompts the Fed to act decisively. Despite worries about the labor market, controlling prices will likely be the priority. The US Dollar might strengthen due to these inflation concerns, opening new opportunities in the forex market. While EUR/USD is currently rising, we see this as a potential bull trap, suggesting you might consider buying put options in case it falls below 1.1300. Historically, higher inflation data in the US has led to rallies in the Dollar Index (DXY), pushing other currency pairs down.Market Speculations And Strategic Movements
We should also monitor the GBP/USD pair for signs of weakness. Its current position above 1.3200 may not hold if the Dollar starts a strong rally driven by expectations of interest rate hikes. Upcoming FOMC discussions about tariffs could increase this volatility, so protective puts might be a wise choice. For gold, the downward pressure remains significant even with declining US yields. This indicates that the strong dollar narrative is dominating the market, making gold pricier for foreign buyers. We observed a similar situation in late 2024 when a rising dollar overcame support from yields, suggesting we might see gold weaken further below the $3,300 level. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin’s stability presents a distinctive opportunity. Data from analytics firm Glassnode highlights that realized volatility has recently dropped to a two-year low, often signaling a major price movement. Given the positive outlook, using call options might be a smart way to prepare for a breakout above the $120,000 resistance level with defined risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Personal spending in the United States falls short of expectations, showing 0.3% instead of 0.4%
Euro And Pound Market Movements
GBP/USD has shown mixed activity, hovering around 1.3200 after a dip to 1.3180. This fluctuation is influenced by external factors, including US economic data. Gold is facing selling pressure and struggling to surpass $3,300 per troy ounce. This trend aligns with falling US yields and a slightly weaker US Dollar. Bitcoin is stabilizing within the $116,000-$120,000 range, supported by ongoing whale purchases. Better regulatory clarity and new financial partnerships are boosting market confidence.Federal Reserve And Future Market Strategies
The FOMC is divided on how tariffs may affect the economy, balancing risks to labor markets with inflation concerns. Understanding these factors is crucial for future policies. The slight miss in US personal spending signals that consumers are becoming more cautious. In June 2025, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, cooled to 2.6% year-over-year, the lowest since early 2024. This trend and the divided FOMC suggest we should look for strategies that benefit from a pause in rate hikes, as the argument for tightening is weakening. The divergence between central banks presents an opportunity. With EUR/USD at 1.1450, recent comments from the ECB hinted at a possible rate hike to combat persistent services inflation in the Eurozone. We believe that buying long call options on the EUR/USD could effectively capture this potential widening policy gap between a dovish Fed and a hawkish ECB. For GBP/USD, the recent fluctuations reflect uncertainty within the Bank of England. The last policy meeting on July 17th, 2025, ended in a tight 5-4 vote to maintain rates, revealing divisions over the UK’s economic direction. Given this uncertainty, we suggest considering options strategies like straddles, which profit from significant price movements in either direction once clearer policies emerge. Gold’s inability to rise above $3,300, despite a weaker dollar, suggests profit-taking after a strong rally. Looking back to 2020-2022, consolidation after major increases is common; recent CME data shows that open interest in gold futures has fallen by 5% in the last two weeks. We might consider selling out-of-the-money call options to generate income while awaiting a significant breakout. Bitcoin’s stability above $116,000 appears well-supported by strong buying activity. On-chain data from July 30th, 2025, indicates that addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC added a net 45,000 coins this month, confirming accumulation by large players. Selling cash-secured puts with strike prices near the lower end of the current range could be a smart strategy to collect premium or acquire the asset at a support level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Microsoft and Meta’s strong performances boost optimism in mixed market technology sectors
Amazon and UnitedHealth Updates
Amazon’s stock went up by 1.10%, reflecting strong trends in e-commerce. On the other hand, UnitedHealth’s stock fell by 3.67%, raising concerns in the healthcare sector. Overall, the market feels cautiously optimistic, particularly in tech and internet-related areas. Companies like Microsoft and Meta show confidence in technology and digital growth. However, challenges in healthcare raise questions about regulations and operations. For those looking to adjust their portfolios, technology and communication sectors may be good for growth. Staying updated on sector news is important as it can influence trends. Diversifying investments helps manage volatility by balancing growth and defensive sectors. With Meta’s stock up over 11% today, we expect its options will see increased volatility. This presents an opportunity for traders who sell options, as a consolidation period may follow such a big price change. Strategies like selling out-of-the-money strangles for upcoming expirations could be a way to take advantage of this high volatility.Microsoft Growth and Trading Strategy
Microsoft’s 4.9% increase follows its quarterly report, revealing a strong 35% year-over-year revenue growth in Azure cloud services. This suggests solid fundamentals, making call options with late August or September expirations an attractive option to capture continued growth. Compared to Meta, Microsoft has lower implied volatility, allowing for a clearer trading strategy. In semiconductors, AI leaders like Nvidia are favored. While there have been volatility spikes around its earnings reports throughout 2024, Nvidia’s current stability signals confidence in its upcoming product launches. A potential strategy could be buying call options on Nvidia while considering put options on weaker stocks like Broadcom for a paired trade. UnitedHealth’s notable 3.67% decline points to new market worries, especially with news of a possible Department of Justice inquiry into industry billing practices. This uncertainty may keep options pricing high, making it appealing for traders who believe the stock might continue to drop or stay steady. We are considering buying puts for protection against downturns or selling call credit spreads if we think the sell-off is excessive. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the VIX around a moderate 18. This level makes broad-market hedges less affordable, but memories of sudden shifts in sectors from 2024 remind us to stay prepared. We believe that using gains in tech to fund protective puts on the broader market or weaker sectors is a smart strategy for the upcoming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USDCAD sees six straight days of gains, with buyers supporting it above key averages
North American Session Analysis
In the North American session, the pair dipped to 1.38268, just above the moving average, showing strong support. Staying above 1.38233 indicates bullish control, boosting buyer confidence. The close yesterday at 1.38292 created a support zone. If USDCAD drops below this level and the 100-day moving average, attention will shift to the prior ceiling and June’s high at 1.37955. Falling back into the previous range could raise doubts about the breakout’s strength. USDCAD is showing a strong bullish breakout after six consecutive days of gains. It remains above the 100-day moving average at 1.38233, which is acting as an important support level. As long as the price stays above this point, we expect bullish momentum to grow in the coming weeks.Upcoming Economic Indicators
This strength comes from differing economic signals. Recent data revealed that Canadian retail sales for June slowed more than expected, raising worries about the economy. At the same time, WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 4% in the last week, falling below $80 per barrel, which negatively impacts the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Looking forward, everyone is waiting for the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for July, set to be released next week. There are expectations for a solid number, which would support the Federal Reserve’s current policy and further strengthen the US dollar. This contrasts with growing speculation that the Bank of Canada may need to consider easing if its economic data continues to weaken. For traders looking for more gains, buying call options is a straightforward way to tap into potential upside. Given the recent surge, implied volatility has likely gone up, making bull call spreads a potentially cheaper strategy to target a move towards the 1.4000 level while controlling risk. These positions would profit if the pair keeps moving upward after the breakout. To manage risk, keep a close eye on the 1.38233 level. A sustained drop below this moving average and the earlier resistance at 1.37955 would indicate that this breakout has failed. In that case, purchasing put options could be a smart hedge against long positions or a standalone bet on the pair returning to its prior trading range. Historically, similar breakouts in USDCAD, like those seen in late 2024, often pause to consolidate before continuing higher. Traders should not worry too much about minor pullbacks as long as key support levels remain intact. This pattern suggests that patience may be necessary before the next major move in the trend. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In June, personal income in the United States surpassed expectations at 0.3% instead of 0.2%
In June, the month-on-month personal consumption expenditures price index in the United States matched forecasts at 0.3%
Copper prices fall significantly due to new tariffs and exclusions affecting market expectations and dynamics.
