WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, traded near $89.00 during Asian hours on Friday. The price edged up after Lebanon’s army accused Israel of breaching a ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Lebanon’s army reported on Friday that it recorded multiple alleged violations by Israel after the truce began at midnight local time on Friday.

Trump also said the US and Iran are likely to meet over the weekend for a second round of negotiations. No official date has been set for the talks.

Ceasefire Developments And Market Impact

Trump said on Thursday that a permanent ceasefire could be reached before the current arrangement expires next week. Expectations of a two-week ceasefire extension could put downward pressure on WTI.

Bloomberg reported that several European and Gulf Arab leaders think it could take six months to negotiate a US-Iran deal.

The tensions we saw developing last year between Israel and Lebanon continue to put a floor under oil prices. With West Texas Intermediate now trading near $95 a barrel, up significantly from last year, the market is pricing in a persistent geopolitical risk premium. Any renewed sign of conflict could easily push prices back towards the $100 mark in the coming weeks.

Options Positioning And Demand Watch

We have seen how the stalled US-Iran negotiations, which were a point of focus in 2025, have contributed to this uncertainty. War risk insurance premiums for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have risen 12% in the last quarter alone, reflecting the tangible cost of this instability. The latest CFTC data also shows large speculators have increased their net-long positions in WTI, suggesting they are betting on higher prices.

However, derivative traders should watch demand signals closely for any sign of weakness. While the latest EIA report showed a surprise crude oil inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels, gasoline stocks unexpectedly built up, hinting that high prices may be starting to curb consumer demand. This creates a volatile environment where prices could quickly reverse on negative economic data.

Given this backdrop, traders should consider buying near-term call options to profit from a potential price spike caused by a flare-up in the Middle East. For those looking for a more risk-defined strategy, bull call spreads could capture upside while limiting the initial cost. This allows traders to position for a rise in prices without taking on unlimited risk if demand worries suddenly take over.

Looking back at historical conflicts in the region, such as the initial price shocks during the Gulf Wars, we can see that the market often overreacts to headlines before settling. This suggests that while there is an opportunity for sharp gains, traders must be ready for significant volatility. Using options to define risk is therefore a prudent approach in the current environment.

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Silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline and is trading just below $79.00 in the Asian session on Friday. It is up 0.50% on the day and is set for a fourth weekly gain in a row.

The price is holding above the 200-period EMA, supporting a positive near-term bias despite recent rejections near $81.00. The RSI is near 57, while the MACD has moved back into negative territory.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance is at $80.00, followed by the weekly swing high near $81.00. A break above that area could target the 61.8% retracement at $83.16.

Support sits at the 200-period EMA at $77.01, then the 38.2% retracement at $74.82. Further downside levels are the 23.6% retracement at $69.67 and the cycle low area near $61.33.

We are seeing silver find its footing just under the $79.00 mark, which is a key retracement level from the March 2025 downturn. While indicators like the price holding above the 200-period EMA suggest a constructive bias, failures near the $81.00 level call for a measured approach. The conflicting signals from the RSI and MACD suggest that while the mood is positive, the upward momentum is waning.

For derivatives traders, this suggests a strategy of cautious optimism over the next few weeks. One could consider selling cash-secured puts with a strike price below the strong support at $77.00 to collect premium, banking on the price holding that floor. Another approach would be to buy call options with a strike price above the $81.00 resistance, positioning for a potential breakout toward the $83.00 level.

April 2026 Perspective

Looking back from today in April 2026, that consolidation period proved to be a significant accumulation zone before the subsequent rally. We can now see that silver prices are trading near $95, having been propelled by fundamental factors that were just beginning to take shape. For instance, the US Inflation Reduction Act of 2025, passed in the latter half of that year, significantly boosted subsidies for green energy projects.

That policy shift directly impacted silver’s industrial demand, which has been a primary driver of its price. The Silver Institute’s latest report for Q1 2026 confirmed a 12% year-over-year increase in demand from the photovoltaic sector alone. This industrial consumption, combined with persistent inflation that saw the March 2026 CPI print come in at 3.8%, has bolstered silver’s dual appeal.

The lesson from that period in 2025 was that technical support levels were critical to watch. The successful defense of the 200-period EMA near $77.00 provided the base for the rally that followed. Traders who used derivatives to define their risk below that level while maintaining bullish exposure were well-rewarded as fundamental drivers took control through the end of 2025 and into this year.

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China’s real GDP rose 5.0% year-on-year in 1Q26, at the top of the official 4.5%–5.0% target range. The 2026 growth forecast is kept at 4.7%, with an assumption of 4.6%–4.8% year-on-year growth over the next three quarters.

External risks cited include supply disruption, high oil prices, Middle East conflict, and US trade probes that could affect exports. Domestic conditions include weak demand and confidence, while local government finances are described as limiting the scope for support.

Growth Momentum And Investment Signals

Month-on-month growth remained positive, with gains of 1.68% in January, 0.99% in February, and 0.52% in March, following three months of contraction. Plans to raise high-tech investment are mentioned alongside uncertainty around the broader investment outlook.

Headline CPI for 2026 is forecast at 1.3%, below the official 2% target. Policy tools referenced include regulated refined oil prices and possible subsidies to help manage inflation pressures.

With activity resilient and inflation contained, near-term rate cuts are seen as less likely. A 10-basis-point policy rate cut is still projected, but the timing is shifted to 3Q26 from 2Q26, with more emphasis on targeted easing and structural measures.

Given the strong start to 2026, we see a potential trap for those who are overly bullish. While the 5.0% Q1 GDP growth is positive, underlying data like the March Producer Price Index (PPI), which remains deflationary at -2.5%, points to persistent weak domestic demand. This suggests any rallies in broad market indices like the FTSE China A50 may be short-lived and worth hedging with put options for the medium term.

Market Implications For Rates And Risk

The delay of an expected rate cut from the second quarter to the third is a significant shift traders must factor in. This removes a key catalyst for the market in the coming weeks, likely capping the upside on equity indices. We remember how in 2025, markets pulled back when anticipated stimulus from the People’s Bank of China was more measured than hoped for.

Heightened geopolitical risks from the Middle East are directly impacting oil prices, with Brent crude recently hovering near $95 a barrel. This external pressure creates uncertainty and increases volatility, which can be seen in the rising Hang Seng Volatility Index (VHSI). We believe strategies that profit from price swings, such as straddles on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, are becoming more attractive.

For currency traders, the postponed rate cut should provide short-term support for the yuan. The USD/CNH pair has remained in a tight range around 7.28, and without immediate easing from the PBOC, a significant breakout to the upside seems unlikely. Therefore, options strategies based on the currency remaining range-bound could be prudent.

The government’s focus on targeted support for high-tech sectors while overall consumer confidence lags suggests a two-speed economy. This warrants a more granular approach instead of broad market bets. Derivative plays could focus on call options for specific technology-related ETFs while considering puts on consumer discretionary sectors that are more exposed to weak domestic spending.

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Gold (XAU/USD) edged up to about $4,795 in early Asian trading on Friday. Trading was shaped by easing geopolitical concerns and ongoing inflation pressures.

A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel began on Thursday, according to Reuters. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to the truce to support talks towards a peace agreement with Lebanon.

Middle East Diplomacy In Focus

The next meeting between the US and Iran may take place over the weekend. US President Donald Trump said the two countries were seeking an extended truce before it expires next week, with markets watching for updates.

A possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk. Disruption to energy supplies could push oil prices higher, add to inflation, and reduce the likelihood of interest-rate cuts.

Gold can rise during geopolitical uncertainty, but it pays no interest and can be less appealing when rates stay high. Support may come from central bank demand, with China’s PBoC extending its buying streak to 18 consecutive months through March 2026.

With gold near $4,795, the immediate focus is on the weekend talks between the US and Iran. A successful outcome, building on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, could trigger a sharp pullback in prices as geopolitical risk premium evaporates. We are in a fragile situation where headlines will drive short-term market moves.

Inflation Rates And Options Positioning

Persistent inflation, with the last US CPI reading for March 2026 coming in higher than expected at 3.8%, complicates the picture. This makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to pivot from its restrictive stance, keeping the Fed Funds Rate around 5.5% and creating a headwind for non-yielding gold. The high interest rate environment punishes holding gold for long periods.

Given the binary risk of the peace talks, traders should consider using options to define their risk. We remember the volatility spike in late 2025, and buying put options could be a prudent way to hedge against a sudden peace-driven price drop. The market is pricing in significant movement, with the VIX holding firm above 20.

Conversely, any failure in negotiations could see a rapid move higher, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still a major concern. A breakdown in talks could easily send gold to test new highs above $5,000 as capital seeks safety. Using call option spreads allows for capturing this potential upside while limiting the cost of entry, which is high due to current volatility.

We should not ignore the strong underlying support from central banks, as noted by the World Gold Council’s Q1 2026 report. The People’s Bank of China has now bought gold for 18 straight months, a trend followed by several other emerging market banks. This consistent demand provides a strong floor and suggests any deep price corrections may be short-lived.

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New Zealand’s electronic card retail sales rose 0.7% month on month in March. This was down from a 1.4% increase in the previous period.

The latest figure shows slower growth in electronic card retail spending compared with the month before. No further breakdown or causes were provided in the text.

Consumer Slowdown Signals

We are seeing clear evidence of a consumer slowdown in New Zealand with this new data. The drop in month-on-month electronic card sales growth from 1.4% to 0.7% signals that higher interest rates are beginning to bite into household spending. This is a significant deceleration and suggests weakening domestic demand heading into the second quarter.

This softening trend will likely push the Reserve Bank of New Zealand into a more dovish stance. With the Official Cash Rate holding at 5.50% since mid-2025, this data weakens any remaining case for further rate hikes. Derivative markets should now increase pricing for a potential rate cut by the end of 2026, making interest rate swaps and futures that bet on lower rates look more attractive.

For currency traders, this development puts downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The NZD/USD, which has struggled to hold above 0.6150 in recent weeks, could now test support near the 0.6000 level. We see an opportunity in buying NZD put options as a way to position for this expected weakness against the US dollar.

This spending data doesn’t exist in a vacuum, as it follows last week’s ANZ business confidence survey which showed a decline in firms’ own activity outlook. Looking back, we saw a similar pattern emerge in late 2024 when early signs of consumer weakness preceded a broader economic slowdown. This historical parallel reinforces our view that the current trend is likely to persist.

Broader Context And Outlook

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New Zealand’s electronic card retail sales rose 2.7% year on year in March. This was up from 1.5% in the previous period.

The March result indicates a faster annual rate of growth than before. The change between the two readings is 1.2 percentage points.

New Zealand Retail Momentum And Policy Implications

The jump in New Zealand’s retail card spending to 2.7% year-over-year for March is a strong signal of consumer resilience. This unexpectedly robust data suggests underlying economic momentum, which will likely force a re-evaluation of when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might begin cutting interest rates. We should anticipate that the market will start pushing back the timeline for any potential monetary easing.

Given this, we see an opportunity to position for a stronger New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the coming weeks. The data supports the RBNZ maintaining the Official Cash Rate at its current 5.5%, especially as annual inflation is still tracking at 3.1%, well above the bank’s target. Call options on the NZD/USD, or even selling NZD/USD puts, could be effective ways to express this view.

This strength in New Zealand contrasts with the situation in Australia, where recent data showed consumer spending remains more subdued. This divergence makes a long NZD/AUD position particularly compelling. We saw a similar pattern in late 2025 when differing central bank outlooks created profitable cross-rate opportunities.

Rates Markets And Trading Positioning

Interest rate markets may also be slow to react, presenting another angle for traders. We can look at derivatives that bet on New Zealand’s short-term interest rates staying higher for longer than currently priced in. The data implies that the risk is skewed towards the RBNZ remaining more hawkish than its global peers through the second quarter.

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Dear Client,

To ensure fair trading conditions and manage market volatility during major economic announcements and special market conditions, VT Markets will apply temporary leverage adjustments on certain trading products during specific news periods and market opening/closing.

These adjustments are designed to protect clients from abnormal market fluctuations, sudden liquidity changes, and extreme price movements that may occur during high-impact events or reduced market liquidity periods.

1. Products Affected
The temporary leverage adjustment may apply to the following products:
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2. Adjusted Leverage During News Releases and Market Opening/Closing
During the specified period, maximum leverage will be adjusted as follows:
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Oil: 10
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3. News Events That Can Trigger the Adjustment
Leverage adjustments may be applied during major economic announcements including:
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The above data is for reference only. Other significant macroeconomic releases from major economies may also be included.
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Temporary leverage adjustments apply during the following periods:
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Additional Conditions (Effective from 27 April 2026):
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→ Leverage will be reduced 30 minutes after market open for Gold, Silver, Oil, Forex, NAS100, SP500, DJ30, US2000
After the above period ends, leverage will automatically return to the original leverage.

5. Important Rules
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We strongly encourage clients to take these temporary leverage adjustments into account when planning trading strategies during high-impact economic events or special market conditions.

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GBP/USD fell about 0.25% on Thursday to near 1.3525, giving back part of the earlier rise after a move towards 1.3600. The pair slipped below 1.3550 and traded lower through the European and North American sessions.

UK data were mixed. GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month in February versus 0.1% expected, and the Index of Services rose 0.5% versus 0.3% expected.

Market Drivers And Price Action

Manufacturing Production fell 0.1% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, missing forecasts. Industrial Production year-on-year was -0.4% versus a -0.9% consensus.

US Dollar demand was supported by ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict that began with US-led strikes at the end of February. Claims of a near Iran deal and an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire were met with doubt.

The Strait of Hormuz remained closed and now includes a US-backed blockade, raising concerns about energy supply disruption and inflation. A Bank of England speaker, Taylor, was scheduled to speak twice later in the day.

Short-term readings placed GBP/USD near 1.3525, below the day’s open at 1.3571, with Stochastic RSI at 46.19. Levels cited included support at 1.3520 and 1.3500, and resistance at 1.3571.

On daily charts, GBP/USD was near 1.3526, above the 50-day EMA at 1.3412 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3354, with Stochastic RSI at 94.6. The report noted support at those moving averages and included a disclosure that AI helped write the technical section.

Scenario Planning And Options Positioning

Given the conflicting signals, we should prepare for an increase in volatility in the GBP/USD pair. The dollar’s strength from geopolitical risk is clashing with a UK economy showing pockets of strength, creating an uncertain environment. Options strategies that benefit from price swings, such as long straddles, could be worth considering to trade this choppy outlook.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the most significant factor supporting the US dollar right now. Historically, about 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this chokepoint, so a sustained blockade presents a serious threat of renewed global inflation. This situation will likely keep safe-haven demand for the dollar elevated in the coming weeks.

We remember well how the energy price shocks of 2022 led to persistent inflation that forced central banks into aggressive tightening cycles. Traders will be watching for any signs that history is repeating, which would reinforce the dollar’s strength and put pressure on other currencies. This historical precedent makes the current market skepticism toward a quick resolution in the Middle East understandable.

On the UK side, the weak manufacturing report is a point of concern, offsetting the better-than-expected GDP print. This softness in the factory sector is a notable reversal, particularly after we saw the UK Manufacturing PMI finally climb back above the 50.0 growth threshold in late 2025. This divergence adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s policy path.

For those expecting further downside, buying GBP/USD put options with a strike price near 1.3450 could offer a defined-risk way to target a drop toward the 50-day moving average around 1.3412. This strategy would capitalize on both the strong dollar trend and the fresh doubts about the UK’s industrial health. The pair’s failure to hold gains above 1.3570 suggests sellers remain in control for now.

However, we must also respect that the longer-term trend for GBP/USD remains positive, with the price holding above key moving averages. For traders who view this dip as a corrective pullback, selling out-of-the-money puts near the 1.3400 psychological level could be a viable strategy. This approach allows one to collect premium while waiting for the broader uptrend to potentially resume.

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USD/JPY moved back above 159.00 after hitting a weekly low of 158.26. It was trading at 159.17, up 0.11% at the time of writing.

The US Dollar strengthened alongside mixed US data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a two-day high of 98.29.

Intervention Risk Near Key Levels

The pair still points upwards, but Japanese authorities may use verbal warnings that could slow further gains. This may limit moves towards 160.00 and the year-to-date high of 160.46.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains on the bullish side but has been drifting down towards 50. This suggests buying momentum is fading and selling pressure is growing.

A break above 159.50 would open a move towards 160.00. If 160.00 gives way, the next levels are 160.46 and 161.81 (from 10 July 2024).

On the downside, support sits at 159.00 and then 158.26. Below that, the 50-day SMA is at 157.61 and the 100-day SMA is at 156.97.

Lessons From The 2025 Playbook

We remember the situation well in mid-2025 when the pair reclaimed 159.00. The weakening bullish momentum seen in the RSI then was a classic signal that the market was testing the resolve of Japanese authorities. That tension around the 160.00 level created significant uncertainty for traders at the time.

The landscape has shifted since last year’s verbal warnings. We saw Japanese authorities follow through with direct market intervention later in 2025, similar to the ¥9.8 trillion spent back in the spring of 2024 to defend the yen. This history of decisive action makes the threat of intervention today, as we approach similar levels, far more credible.

Fundamentally, the carry trade is less appealing than it was in 2025. With the Federal Reserve having cut its key rate to around 4.0% in a series of moves and the Bank of Japan making a modest hike to 0.25%, the interest rate differential has narrowed. This change dampens the explosive upward momentum we saw previously.

For the coming weeks, this suggests a different options strategy than last year. With the upside likely capped by intervention risk near 160.50, traders should consider buying put options for downside protection or implementing bear call spreads to profit from a sideways or downward move. Implied volatility is lower than during the peaks of 2025, making these strategies more cost-effective.

If US economic data, such as the upcoming CPI report, comes in weaker than expected, it could accelerate a move lower. A break below the 158.25 level would signal a significant shift in sentiment. This would bring the 50-day moving average, now sitting around 157.80, into focus as the next support level.

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NZD/USD traded around 0.5890 on Thursday, 16 April, with subdued movement as demand for the US Dollar rose amid geopolitical risk. The Dollar was supported by disruption to global energy shipping routes.

The Strait of Hormuz faced a “double blockage”, allowing only partial tanker movement. Iran planned a toll on transit to be processed through its domestic banking system, adding friction to trade flows and raising supply concerns.

Diplomatic Outlook And Market Reaction

Diplomatic progress remained unclear, with talks between Washington and Tehran not confirmed. US President Donald Trump said a possible meeting could take place over the weekend.

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was due to start later on Thursday. Israel said troops would remain in the South Lebanon buffer zone, while Hezbollah warned that any continued presence would justify resistance.

On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD was at 0.5891 and stayed above the 100-period SMA at 0.5792. The 20-period SMA at 0.5897 capped gains, with horizontal resistance at 0.5892 and 0.5901, while the 14-period RSI was near 56.

Resistance was at 0.5892 and 0.5897, with a break opening 0.5965. Support was at 0.5887 and 0.5881, with a deeper level at 0.5792.

Strategy Implications For The Weeks Ahead

Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw the NZD/USD pair under pressure around 0.5890 due to major disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US dollar strengthened then as a safe-haven currency amid global trade friction and fragile ceasefires. This historical context is critical for understanding how to position ourselves in the coming weeks.

Today, similar patterns are re-emerging, but with greater intensity. Brent crude oil futures have surged to over $112 per barrel in April 2026, and recent data shows global maritime shipping insurance premiums have risen by 15% in the last quarter alone. This reflects renewed concerns over key maritime chokepoints, echoing the situation we observed last year.

Consequently, implied volatility for NZD/USD options has climbed significantly, with the 1-month volatility index now at a 7-month high of 15.2%. This indicates the market is pricing in much larger price swings for the kiwi dollar over the coming weeks. We should anticipate that this elevated volatility is the new normal for now.

Given the sustained demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, purchasing put options on the NZD/USD is a prudent strategy. This allows for profiting from or hedging against further declines in the pair. We should be looking at expirations in the next 30 to 60 days to capture the peak of this uncertainty.

For those less certain on direction but confident in large price moves, a long straddle could be effective. By buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price, we can profit whether the NZD/USD breaks sharply up or down. This strategy directly plays the increase in market volatility we are currently witnessing.

We must monitor reports on tanker movements and any diplomatic statements closely, as these will be major catalysts. The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which we saw being negotiated last year, remains a potential flashpoint that could trigger another rush into US dollar safety. Any breakdown in that situation could cause immediate and sharp market reactions.

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