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Buyers are targeting the $4,000 level as Ethereum bounces back from a recent drop.
Ethereum has bounced back from losses yesterday, gaining an additional 2% today. The price hit a high of $3,941 before pulling back during US trading hours. Sellers tried to test the support levels, but buyers held strong around the 200-hour moving average at about $3,736. Right now, Ethereum buyers are working to surpass the $4,000 mark.
The overall mood in the cryptocurrency market is positive, especially as Wall Street reaches new record highs. However, the upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies could influence market sentiment and impact Ethereum’s chances of breaking through the $4,000 barrier.
The $4,000 level is crucial to watch in Ethereum’s price movements.
Buyers are concentrating on pushing Ethereum toward the $4,000 target. The support at the 200-hour moving average indicates strength in the market. This suggests that traders should prepare for a possible breakout attempt soon.
This week’s tech earnings reports will be a significant test for this bullish trend. These reports may lead to short-term volatility across the market, including Ethereum, creating opportunities for traders who thrive on price fluctuations.
Recent data backs this positive outlook, showing that Ethereum ETFs had net inflows of over $1.2 billion in July 2025. Additionally, there’s substantial activity in the options market, with many traders holding call options at a $4,200 strike price set to expire in mid-August. This indicates that many expect the upward trend to continue beyond the $4,000 level.
Given the expected market fluctuations, we are using bull call spreads. This strategy allows us to target movements toward $4,000 or higher while limiting our risk. It’s a way to pursue gains without full exposure if the resistance holds.
However, if the tech earnings turn out to be disappointing, we might see a quick retreat to support around $3,700. A similar situation occurred in early 2025, where a failed breakout resulted in a sharp 15% drop. Therefore, holding some protective puts could be a smart way to guard against any unexpected negative turns.
Oil Eases Ahead Of Fed Decision
Oil prices gave back some gains on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s sharp advance, as markets absorbed the broader implications of a fresh US–EU trade agreement and turned their attention to an upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged down 0.2% to $66.60 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $69.98.
The retreat followed a strong start to the week, which saw both major benchmarks climb more than 2%, with Brent reaching its highest level since 18 July. However, sentiment began to cool as traders examined the finer points of the trade deal. Though the agreement managed to avoid an all-out trade war, its terms introduced new uncertainties.
A key feature of the pact is the EU’s commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy over President Trump’s second term.
Market watchers have expressed scepticism over the feasibility of this target. Similarly, a promised $600 billion in European investment into the US remains a lofty goal without a firm schedule.
In the near term, the outlook continues to lean bullish, but price action remains sensitive to central bank signals and any resurgence in trade tensions. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes on 29–30 July. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, a dovish shift in tone is possible should inflation indicators continue to soften.
Elsewhere, talks between US and Chinese negotiators in Stockholm remain in focus. Monday’s five-hour dialogue signalled interest in extending the current truce, though the path forward remains murky.
President Trump has also issued a 10–12 day ultimatum to Russia over rising tensions in Ukraine, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil (WTI) surged to a session high of $67.123 on the 29th before retreating below the 5- and 10-period moving averages. The price action shows a clear uptrend from the low of $64.979, but the rally appears to be losing steam as the MACD crosses lower and the histogram shifts into negative territory.
The failure to hold above the $67 handle suggests a weakening of bullish momentum. This aligns with broader sentiment after recent API data hinted at a potential build in US crude inventories and ongoing concerns about Chinese demand weighed on energy markets. If the price holds above $66.40, a rebound remains possible. A break below may expose the $65.60 zone as the next downside target.
Outlook Remains Guarded
WTI continues to hold above $66.50 for now, but a lack of fresh drivers could see the upside capped near $67.20. Any hawkish surprises from the Fed or setbacks in trade negotiations could trigger a pullback toward the $66.00 mark. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the Fed’s announcement.
European stocks rebound as indices rise, but worries about the recent trade deal remain
European stocks opened higher today, with various indices making gains. The Eurostoxx increased by 0.6%, Germany’s DAX rose by 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5%, and both Spain’s IBEX and Italy’s FTSE MIB advanced by 0.5%. The UK’s FTSE saw a smaller rise of 0.1%.
Concerns about the US-EU trade deal continue. While a trade war has been avoided, there is some dissatisfaction in Europe regarding von der Leyen’s agreement. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei index fell by 0.8%, marking its third consecutive day of losses this week. The market is also looking ahead to major tech earnings from Wall Street, expected after the close on Wednesday and Thursday.
Market Mood
Today’s market mood, on July 29, 2025, shows a slight bounce in European stocks, signaling a fragile recovery. Although the DAX and CAC 40 are up, they are rebounding after several days of selling pressure linked to renewed trade issues with the US over digital services taxes. This temporary calm may be an opportunity to prepare for upcoming volatility. We are closely monitoring low volatility levels, with the VIX index around 14. Historically, such low levels before major earnings announcements from giants like Microsoft and Alphabet often lead to sharp market moves. The current low cost of options presents a chance to prepare for a potential spike in volatility. This situation suggests we should look into buying protection against a possible downturn. Purchasing out-of-the-money put options on major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 or the Nasdaq 100 is a cost-effective strategy. These positions could gain if negative earnings surprises or bad trade news push the market lower in the coming weeks.Effective Strategies
For those who expect a big price swing but aren’t sure of the direction, a long straddle on key tech stocks could be a smart move. This strategy involves buying both a call and a put option, allowing you to profit from a significant move either up or down. We would focus on options that expire in late August to capture the immediate market reaction and any resulting trends. We also need to consider the broader economic data. Eurostat’s latest flash estimate shows Eurozone inflation steady at 2.8%. This ongoing inflation makes it less likely that the European Central Bank will intervene with supportive measures if markets begin to slide. This reinforces the case for having downside protection ready. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold stays within a range as bearish sentiment lingers ahead of key economic data
Gold prices have fallen after hitting resistance at 3,438. This decline is influenced by trade deals and a lack of positive news. As the market waits for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, many expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates the same. However, if inflation figures improve, a rate cut in September could be possible.
The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report may be crucial: weaker data might lead the Fed to consider cutting rates, while stronger data could keep the current policy. Long-term, gold may rise due to lower real yields as the Fed eases, but short-term adjustments in interest rates might cause some price corrections.
Gold Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below a key trendline, with sellers increasing. The important level to monitor is 3,120, where buyers may try to push prices back up towards the resistance at 3,438. In shorter timeframes, a downward trendline remains, with sellers targeting 3,246, and there’s little bullish energy ahead of the FOMC meeting. Notable upcoming reports include US Job Openings, Consumer Confidence, US GDP, and Employment data, which will impact market movements. Gold is pulling back from its recent high above $2,400, making this a key moment for traders. The absence of immediate positive news has led to short-term weakness, but the overall upward trend stays strong. This situation creates opportunities for strategies that can benefit from both anticipated volatility and the underlying trend.Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Outlook
The upcoming FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, but we don’t expect any policy changes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is over a 99% chance that rates will remain steady in June. The tone of Fed Chair Powell will be important; any suggestion of delaying rate cuts until late 2024 could lead to further declines in gold prices. We see the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report as the most significant event. The last report in early May showed a weaker labor market with only 175,000 jobs added, which was below expectations and initially supported gold. If this Friday’s report is unexpectedly strong, gold prices could drop towards the crucial support level around $2,280 per ounce. Inflation data is a key factor for the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index showed core inflation at 2.8% annually, still above the target. This ongoing inflation allows officials to remain cautious, limiting gold’s short-term upside and reinforcing bearish sentiment. For derivative traders, this situation suggests buying puts with a strike price near $2,280 to profit from a potential decline if strong economic data is reported. Alternatively, selling call spreads with an upper strike around the recent highs of $2,400 can generate income as long as momentum remains weak. This strategy allows traders to benefit from possible price drops or sideways movement in the upcoming weeks. Historically, gold tends to perform well during rate-cutting cycles, like in 2019 when it experienced a significant rally. We believe the long-term outlook for gold is still positive due to expected easing and declining real yields. Therefore, any notable dip could provide a chance to establish long-term positions, possibly using long-dated call options for leveraged exposure to a future rebound. In addition to U.S. monetary policy, strong demand from central banks also plays a role. The World Gold Council reported that central banks added a net 290 tonnes to their reserves in the first quarter of 2024, providing a strong foundation for the market. This structural buying should limit the extent of any corrections and provide confidence for buying during pullbacks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The Spanish economy sees modest growth as Q2 GDP rises by 0.7%, surpassing expectations.
Spain’s economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter, beating the expected 0.6% increase.
Year-on-year, Spain’s GDP growth is at 2.8%, making it one of the best performers in Europe.
Spanish Economic Resilience
This stronger-than-expected growth signals a positive outlook for Spanish investments in the short term. It highlights Spain’s economic strength compared to other European countries. We should take this opportunity to position ourselves for more gains. With the unemployment rate below 12%, we have more reason to invest in Spanish stocks. A good strategy might be to buy call options on the IBEX 35 index, aiming for expirations in the next quarter. This approach offers a way to benefit from a potential market rally while keeping our maximum risk in check. This strong data might also impact the European Central Bank’s next decisions, especially since President Christine Lagarde has stressed the importance of data. Increased domestic demand could raise Spanish bond yields compared to German bunds. We may want to consider interest rate swaps to take advantage of this trend.Inflation Concerns and Market Strategies
However, we need to stay alert about inflation, currently at a stubborn 3.4%. This ongoing price pressure might dampen market excitement and limit gains in the medium term. Selling out-of-the-money puts can be a good way to earn premiums while betting on stable to moderate growth. Historically, when Spain has performed well domestically—like from 2015 to 2017—it often led to big rallies in banking and tourism stocks. Past remarks from Lagarde remind us that central bank concerns can create volatility and impact such rallies. This history suggests we should focus our derivative strategies on these key sectors rather than simply on the overall index. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Dividend Adjustment Notice – Jul 29 ,2025
Dear Client,
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
The euro hits five-week lows amid ongoing criticism of the US-EU trade agreement
EUR/USD has hit a five-week low following the US-EU trade deal. Today, the pair has dropped by 0.2%, reaching a low of 1.1555, the weakest level since June 23. European lawmakers are still worried about the trade agreement, finding it unsatisfactory.
Currently, the July lows, between 1.1560 and 1.1572, serve as support for EUR/USD. If the pressure on the euro continues, this support level may be broken, pushing further down towards 1.1500. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from May’s increase is at 1.1537, while stronger resistance could be at the 50.0% retracement around 1.1447 if the euro remains weak.
Influence Of Dollar Strength
The euro’s decline is also due to the strong dollar, which is affecting other currency pairs. GBP/USD has decreased by 0.2% to 1.3330, while AUD/USD has dropped by 0.1% to 0.6513. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has decreased slightly by 0.1% to 148.35. The ongoing pressure on the euro, driven by dissatisfaction with the US-EU trade deal, suggests a bearish outlook for us. We recommend that derivative traders consider buying put options on the EUR/USD. This could be profitable if the currency pair continues to fall below current support levels. Fundamental economic data supports this viewpoint, showing a gap in central bank policies. Recent inflation in the Eurozone has fallen to 2.4%, while U.S. inflation remains steady at 3.2%. The European Central Bank is indicating rate cuts sooner than the Federal Reserve. This interest rate difference gives the dollar a strong advantage over the euro.Market Conditions And Strategy
Current market conditions are favorable, as options pricing is relatively low. The Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index is around 6.5, a historically low level suggesting that the cost of buying puts hasn’t fully accounted for the rising risk of a breakdown. We see this as a great opportunity to set up bearish positions before volatility might increase. A clear drop below the 1.1560-72 support area would signal a strong bearish trend. Historically, these technical breaks can speed up downward movement, quickly bringing the 1.1447 retracement level into play. We recall the sharp drop in 2022 when parity was broken, showing how swiftly market sentiment can shift after key levels are breached. For traders looking to manage risk and lower premium costs, we recommend using bear put spreads. By selling a lower-strike put along with the one being purchased, a trader can lower the initial cash investment. This strategy is wise for targeting the 1.1500 area, as it clarifies both risk and reward while benefitting from a moderate decline. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Spanish Q2 GDP report expected during the European session, while US job openings and consumer confidence will be released in the American session.
The main focus of the European session is the Spanish Flash Q2 GDP report. However, GDP reports often feel outdated, and the Spanish data is unlikely to sway the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decisions.
In the American session, all eyes are on the upcoming US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence data. Job Openings are expected to dip to 7.500 million from 7.769 million. Recent trends show low hiring and low firing, as businesses may be waiting for more clarity on tariffs before making moves.
US Consumer Confidence Expectations
US Consumer Confidence is anticipated to rise to 95.0, up from 93.0. This increase follows a rebound from April’s lows and aligns with easing trade tensions. Unlike the University of Michigan report, this one focuses more on the job market than on consumer finances. We believe the upcoming US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence reports will be crucial for market trends in the next few weeks. These reports will directly affect market volatility and shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Spanish GDP data is unlikely to affect overall market sentiment. The job market shows clear signs of cooling. The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reported 8.059 million openings, the lowest in three years. This supports the view of a “low hiring, low firing” environment, with a healthy ratio of 1.2 job openings for every unemployed person, much better than pre-2020 levels. If job openings drop below the expected 8.0 million, we may consider buying puts on the US dollar or calls on interest rate futures, anticipating a more dovish central bank. On the other hand, consumer sentiment has remained surprisingly strong. The latest Conference Board report exceeded expectations, coming in at 102.0. This strength is directly linked to the labor market focus of the report, suggesting that while hiring is slowing, widespread job insecurity has not yet emerged. This resilience may support consumer discretionary stocks for the time being.Mixed Signals For Traders
This situation creates mixed signals for traders. A softening job market contrasts with steady consumer morale. We believe this supports strategies that anticipate lower volatility, such as selling strangles on indices like the S&P 500, since a market crash seems unlikely while consumer confidence holds. It indicates a slow grind instead of a sharp market drop. Historically, job openings tend to decline before a major economic downturn, a trend we see now. With markets currently pricing in a high chance of a rate cut by September, a weak jobs report would strengthen these predictions. Therefore, we might consider options on specific sector ETFs, possibly looking to invest in rate-sensitive utilities while being cautious with industrial sectors. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Crude oil futures show bearish trends, highlighting key thresholds and profit targets for traders.
Bearish below $66.72 and bullish above $67.03, tradeCompass guides today’s oil traders. Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) are at $66.74, which is only 0.07% lower than yesterday’s close. This technical analysis uses tradeCompass, part of investingLive.com’s methods, after moving from forexlive.com.
For those trading bearish, you can set partial profit targets at $66.52, $66.46, $66.38, $66.28, $66.22, $65.92, and $65.78. If prices go above the bullish mark of $67.03, targets will shift to $67.12, $67.24, and $67.69. Currently, the market is below the bearish line, reinforcing a bearish outlook according to tradeCompass. You can start short positions now or wait for a price pull-back near $66.71.
Bullish Shift And Stop Management
According to tradeCompass, a bullish shift happens only when the price exceeds $67.03. As trades reach the second profit target, it’s wise to adjust stops to your entry point. The analysis shows that price levels act like “magnets,” attracting prices because traders expect high activity there. TradeCompass recommends reducing overtrading and managing stops wisely without crossing directional limits. This light crude oil outlook is educational and uses tradeCompass as a guide instead of a strict rule, tailored to individual trader needs. Find more insights at investingLive.com. Crude oil is currently stuck in a tight range, hovering near the bearish trigger point. This lack of direction suggests that traders should widen their view to consider the broader fundamental landscape in the coming weeks. The technical setup hints that the market may be poised for a bigger move.Fundamental Pressures And Trader Strategies
Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows a surprise inventory increase of 3.7 million barrels, implying that supply is currently outpacing demand in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer. This fundamental pressure is affecting prices and supporting a bearish sentiment. Looking ahead, we should also consider OPEC+’s plan to start reducing some voluntary production cuts later this year. While this added supply won’t affect the market immediately, futures traders will begin to factor it in, making it hard to maintain a long-term bullish view without a new catalyst. Globally, there are signs of slowing economic growth in key regions like China and Europe, which could pose additional challenges. A decrease in industrial activity usually lowers oil demand, potentially leading to price drops similar to the declines seen in late 2018 due to trade tensions. This anticipated reduction in consumption complicates the potential for a sustained price rally. Given these fundamental pressures, traders should be cautious about any price rises. Moves toward the bullish mark of $67.03 could provide chances to take bearish positions, like buying puts or selling futures contracts. We recommend using profit targets based on previous value areas and VWAP levels as logical points to exit short positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.European equities make slight gains amid investor skepticism about the US-EU trade agreement
Eurostoxx futures are up 0.4% in early European trading. German DAX futures have also risen by 0.4%, while UK FTSE futures gained 0.3%.
Stakeholders are looking closely at the US-EU trade deal, although European leaders have indicated that they are not too happy with it. While a worse scenario was avoided, the announcement did not boost European stocks yesterday.
