US pending home sales fell 0.4% year on year in January, improving from a 3% decline
US pending home sales fell 0.4% year on year in January. The previous reading showed a 3% annual fall.
This new figure is a smaller decline. It suggests contract signings are holding up better than in the prior period.
US pending home sales fell 0.8% month on month in January, missing forecasts of a 1.3% rise
US pending home sales fell 0.8% month over month in January. That was weaker than the expected 1.3% rise.
The result was 2.1 percentage points below expectations. Pending home sales track contract signings and often signal near-term changes in completed sales.
Housing Recovery Losing Momentum
The January pending home sales report was a clear disappointment. Instead of growing, sales fell. This points to a housing recovery that is losing steam, as buyers still face high borrowing costs. Even though the average 30-year mortgage rate has eased slightly to about 6.5% nationwide, homes remain unaffordable for many buyers. This weak housing print also affects how we view the Federal Reserve’s next moves. With inflation cooling and CPI moderating to 2.8%, softer housing data gives the Fed more room to consider rate cuts sooner. Derivatives markets now price in better than a 60% chance of a rate cut by the May 2026 meeting, up notably from last month. For us, this supports positioning in interest-rate derivatives that benefit from falling yields. We are looking to add to SOFR-linked futures positions, expecting markets to keep pricing a more dovish Fed. This is a direct way to express the view that the central bank may need to respond to slower growth. In equities, we expect continued pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as homebuilders and regional banks. We are considering put options on ETFs like XHB to hedge, or to potentially profit, if housing-related stocks weaken further. We saw a similar setup in early 2025, when housing softness came ahead of a broader market pullback before the Fed shifted its tone.Dollar Sensitivity To Rate Differentials
A more dovish Fed outlook also matters for the U.S. dollar. Currency values are strongly influenced by interest-rate differences across countries. If U.S. rate cuts look more likely, that can weigh on the dollar index. As a result, we are exploring call options on pairs such as EUR/USD, positioning for a weaker dollar in the second quarter. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.TD Securities expects eurozone PMIs to show a rebound in France’s services and an improvement in Germany’s manufacturing, backed by defence spending.
Eurozone PMI data is expected to show a cautious recovery in France and Germany. Even so, both countries are still forecast to stay below 50.0, the level that separates expansion from contraction.
In France, the Services PMI is expected to rise to 49.5, above the market forecast of 49.2. January’s weakness was linked to uncertainty around the budget.
Cautious Recovery In France And Germany
In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.5, in line with the market forecast of 49.5. Defence procurement is seen as one reason for the small improvement. Even with some progress, both PMI readings are still expected to remain below 50.0. Procurement delays are also cited as a reason results remain weak. The article notes it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Looking back at the analysis from early 2025, the view was that the Eurozone’s core economies were in a cautious recovery. That has largely played out. The Eurozone composite PMI only recently edged up to 50.3 in January 2026, showing that momentum is still limited. This ongoing fragility suggests traders should be careful about making aggressive bullish bets on broad European equity indices.Trade Ideas For A Slow Growth Backdrop
In early 2025, the expectation was that German manufacturing would improve slowly, helped in part by defence spending. Recent data supports that slow pace. German industrial production rose just 0.2% year over year in 2025, showing there has been no strong industrial rebound. As a result, traders could consider selling call spreads on the DAX index. This strategy can benefit from a market that moves sideways or rises only slightly, rather than breaking out sharply higher. The French services rebound expected in 2025 did happen, but it has struggled to pick up speed due to sticky inflation. With Eurozone core inflation still at 2.7% in January 2026, the European Central Bank has less room to support growth with rate cuts. That may create opportunities in short-term interest rate futures for trades that do not rely on rapid policy easing. Slow growth and persistent uncertainty also show up in market volatility. The VSTOXX index, which tracks volatility for the Euro Stoxx 50, is near a historical low at 15.1. Given the fragile backdrop that has developed since early 2025, buying long-dated VSTOXX call options could be a relatively low-cost way to hedge portfolios against a potential economic shock in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold trades flat below $5,000, held back by a strong US dollar, Fed hawkishness and geopolitical tensions
Gold traded in a tight range on Thursday near $5,000. XAU/USD was around $4,975 after reaching an intraday high near $5,021. Strong US data lifted the US Dollar to near one-month highs, which capped gold’s upside.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K for the week ending 14 February. This was below the 225K forecast and down from 229K. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey rose to 16.3 in February, beating the 8.5 estimate and improving from 12.6 in January.
Fed Minutes Signal Rates Higher Longer
Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed a cautious, hawkish tone. Several officials supported holding rates steady for a while. The minutes also kept the door open to more hikes if inflation stays above target. At the same time, some officials said cuts could come later if inflation cools. Geopolitical risk stayed high after CBS News reported that the US military is preparing for possible strikes on Iran as soon as Saturday. The report cited sources and pointed to a recent US military build-up in the Middle East. On the 4-hour chart, price stayed above the 20-period SMA near $4,954. Bollinger Bands tightened, with the upper band near $5,047. RSI was 53 and ADX was 19.51. Support is seen near $4,955–$4,900, with the lower band near $4,862. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the largest annual purchase on record. Gold often moves opposite the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and it usually benefits when interest rates fall.Trade Ideas For A Volatility Breakout
Gold’s sideways action is a classic setup for volatility trades, especially with major economic data due on Friday. Right now, markets are balancing two forces: a strong US Dollar (supported by hawkish Fed messaging) and rising geopolitical risk tied to possible US action in Iran. The tightening Bollinger Bands reflect this stalemate and often signal a bigger move ahead. It may be risky to lean too hard against gold. In late 2023, strong economic data repeatedly pushed back expected Fed rate cuts and strengthened the dollar. Jobless claims are now below 210,000, a level that was not seen consistently until the very tight labor market of early 2024. This gives the Fed more room to stay patient. If the dollar remains firm, gold could struggle to break above resistance near $5,050. Still, the risk around Iran creates a strong upside “surprise” scenario. A smaller example occurred in October 2023, when the Israel–Hamas conflict began and gold rose more than 8% in three weeks. A direct US–Iran confrontation would likely drive a stronger flight to safety, which could outweigh Fed policy in the short term. With implied volatility low because of the narrow trading range, options are cheaper than usual. One approach is a long straddle: buy a call and a put with the same strike price and expiration. This trade can profit if gold breaks sharply higher or lower after weekend headlines or Friday’s PCE inflation report. Long-term support for gold also remains strong because central banks continue to buy. That makes selling naked calls riskier. Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in both 2023 and 2024, helping to create a floor under prices. Because of this, selling cash-secured puts or using bull put spreads below the $4,900 support zone may be a way to collect premium while keeping exposure to a possible rebound. If you expect the range to hold, an iron condor is another choice. This involves selling an out-of-the-money call spread above resistance near $5,050 and selling an out-of-the-money put spread below support near $4,900. It is a defined-risk strategy that benefits if gold stays between those levels until expiration. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US indices avoided an early plunge before reversing lower into the close; he warned clients about QQQ 608 premarket.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq did not sell off right after the opening bell. Later in the day, both moved lower and closed down. The text also notes QQQ moving toward 608 in premarket trading, followed by after-hours gains and a volatile session.
It adds that guidance was shared earlier, including a premarket plan and an intraday update sent the day before to swing trading clients. One trade mentioned was a short position using an NDX call.
Market Showing Distribution At The Highs
The piece promotes a chart preview from Trading / Stock Signals analytics and says the next session is likely to be volatile. It also says the idea of institutional buying near the close was wrong, and contrasts that with retail traders being able to take profits quickly. We are seeing clear signs of a market stalling near its highs. Yesterday’s fake rally, followed by a sell-off, is a good example. These sharp intraday reversals suggest large players are distributing shares, not accumulating them for another move higher. Because of this, any strength—especially in the tech-heavy Nasdaq—should be treated with caution. The January 2026 inflation report came in hotter than expected at 3.1%. That has reduced hopes for an early spring rate cut from the Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market struggled each time rate-cut expectations were pushed out. Now, futures markets imply less than a 20% chance of a rate cut before summer, which is a meaningful headwind for stocks. For derivatives traders, buying protective puts on SPY and QQQ may make sense in the coming weeks. Consider expirations in late March or April to cover a possible re-test of lower support levels. These fake-out rallies can also offer better entry prices for bearish positions. Volatility is picking up as well. The VIX has climbed back toward 22 after staying calm for most of Q4 2025. A higher VIX makes options more expensive, but it also signals rising fear and uncertainty. This is generally a tougher setup for selling options and can favor traders positioned for sharp downside moves.Stay Nimble Take Profits Quickly
This feels similar to the choppy markets of mid-2025. In that environment, traders who stayed nimble and took profits quickly did better than those who held positions too long. Keep that flexibility, since institutions often react slowly to fast changes in sentiment. Take advantage of the market’s indecision by keeping trades tight and avoiding overstaying your welcome—whether you are long or short. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/USD hits a four-week low as strong US data dampens rate-cut expectations and lifts the dollar
EUR/USD fell for a fourth straight day on Thursday. It hit its lowest level since 23 January and traded near 1.1748. The decline came as traders scaled back expectations for near-term US rate cuts, which supported the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index traded near 98.00, its highest level since 6 February. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in the week ending 14 February. This beat the 225K forecast and improved from 229K previously. The four-week average also eased to 219K from 220K.
Us Data And Dollar Momentum
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey rose to 16.3 in February. This was above the 8.5 forecast and up from 12.6 in January. US trade data was weaker. The Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-70.3 billion in December, compared with a $-55.5 billion forecast and $-53 billion previously. The Goods Trade Balance deficit also widened to $-99.3 billion from $-86.9 billion. Focus now shifts to Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, the advance estimate of Q4 US GDP, and preliminary February PMI data. Markets still price in nearly two US rate cuts this year. However, the Fed’s January minutes showed no rush to cut, with inflation still above 2%. The minutes also noted that further hikes could be considered. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through 2026. Eurozone consumer confidence and flash PMIs are also due. As we assess EUR/USD today, 19 February 2026, the situation looks familiar but the drivers have changed. The US Dollar is still strong, yet the economic story is different from a year ago. The policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that began forming in early 2025 has widened further, creating clearer opportunities.Policy Divergence And Trade Setup
In February 2025, US Jobless Claims were very strong at 206K. That strength helped support a hawkish Fed tone. Today, the latest claims reading is 218K. This is still low by historical standards, but it suggests the labor market is cooling slightly. That small shift is an important difference from the much hotter conditions seen a year ago. As a result, the debate has moved. Instead of discussing whether the Fed might hike again, markets are now focused on when cuts will begin. In early 2025, the Fed was “in no hurry.” Now, with Core PCE inflation at 2.8% for January 2026, markets are pricing in at least one rate cut by summer. This is very different from last year, when another round of tightening was still a live topic if inflation picked up again. In the Eurozone, growth remains weak, matching the concerns raised in 2025. The flash manufacturing PMI for February 2026 was just 46.5. That extends more than a year of contraction for the sector. With this persistent weakness, the ECB is more likely to move before the Fed, which adds downside pressure to the Euro. With the policy gap widening, we expect EUR/USD to stay weak in the coming weeks. Traders may consider bearish strategies that benefit from further downside, such as buying puts or setting up bear put spreads on EUR/USD. The 1.1700 level is a key psychological support area and could be tested soon. Attention now turns to US inflation data next week and to ECB messaging after the March meeting. If US inflation stays stickier than expected, Fed cuts could be delayed and EUR/USD could fall faster. If Eurozone data surprises to the upside, EUR/USD could bounce in the short term, but we still see the medium-term trend as clearly negative. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As Nifty slid toward 25,400 amid panic, Elliott Wave traders calmly waited for an alternate scenario setup
The Nifty 50 dropped from around 25,800 to the 25,400 area. It first moved toward 25,550, then fell to a low of 25,388. This was a decline of more than 400 points.
The video covers an “Alternate Scenario” using Elliott Wave analysis. It reviews how the index entered the 25,550 zone. It then looks at whether this drop creates a possible buying setup, or if the market may see a deeper correction.
Alternate Scenario Key Levels
The video also includes a technical review of Nifty, Bank Nifty, Indigo, Bitcoin, MCX Silver, and Comex Gold. The content is presented by Abhishek H. Singh, a financial analyst with over 10 years of experience in Elliott Wave Theory. Nifty has just fallen more than 400 points, sliding from the 25,800 range to near 25,388. This move caused strong panic in the market. For us, however, it matched the predicted alternate scenario and brought the index into a key support zone. The main question now is simple: is this a good buying opportunity, or the start of a much bigger fall? For derivatives traders, the clearest sign of rising fear is the India VIX. It has jumped more than 25% in the last week and is now near 17.5. This rise from the calmer sub-14 levels seen in January 2026 means option premiums are now much higher. That can make option selling more rewarding, but it also increases risk if volatility keeps rising. Institutional flows also show pressure. Foreign investors have been net sellers, pulling out about ₹15,000 crore from Indian equities over the last ten trading sessions. This selling has been a key driver of the recent drop. At the same time, domestic institutions have absorbed much of that selling. This has helped support the market around the 25,400–25,500 levels.Derivatives Flows And Risk Signals
Derivatives data shows the Nifty Put-Call Ratio has fallen to 0.80. This points to bearish sentiment that may be getting stretched, and suggests the market could be oversold in the short term. There is also a large build-up in open interest in 25,500 strike puts, which should now act as an important support level for the upcoming weekly expiry. On the upside, the 26,000 strike has the highest concentration of call writers, creating a strong resistance zone. In 2025, the market saw a similar sharp pullback of about 3% in August. It then consolidated and later moved higher into year-end. In many bull markets, these fast corrections have often created buying opportunities. The key difference this time is higher concern about global inflation data, especially from the United States. This weakness is not limited to Nifty. Bank Nifty has also broken below its key 56,000 support level, adding to the overall decline. With equities under pressure, safe-haven assets like Gold and Silver are seeing renewed demand. Comex Gold is moving back toward $2,100 per ounce as traders hedge against uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.NBC’s Daren King says Canadian home sales fell 5.8% month over month for a third straight month nationwide amid trade worries
Canadian home sales fell 5.8% from December to January. This was the third monthly drop in a row, and the biggest fall since February 2025, when U.S. tariffs were announced.
CREA linked January’s weakness to bad weather in Ontario and Quebec. But the report says weather alone does not explain the drop in home sales.
The decline was nationwide, with sales down in every province. This was the first time that has happened since May 2021.
The report ties the January drop to new trade uncertainty, even after Bank of Canada rate cuts. It adds that the market could rebound in the coming months if trade tensions with the United States ease.
The article says it was made with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
With sales down 5.8% in January, the housing market looks more shaken by trade uncertainty than helped by the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts. That suggests the central bank’s impact is being muted, which makes the outlook tougher. This is also the first nationwide decline since May 2021, so it is not just one region dragging results down.
This puts more pressure on the Bank of Canada to take stronger action in the next few meetings. Inflation last month slipped to 2.5%, below expectations. That gives the Bank more room to cut again without triggering immediate inflation worries. Because of that, we may see more betting on falling Canadian bond yields, with traders pricing in another rate cut by spring if talks with the U.S. do not improve ahead of the USMCA review.
For currency traders, the Canadian dollar may be at risk. A weaker housing market and unresolved trade issues often weigh on the loonie, and we saw that pattern last year. Positioning for more downside versus the U.S. dollar—such as buying CAD put options—may be a sensible approach in the coming weeks.
The broad drop in sales also points to possible weakness in Canadian bank stocks and the TSX financials index. More uncertainty around mortgage growth and the wider economy could lead to sharper price swings. Strategies that benefit from higher volatility, such as buying straddles on major bank ETFs, could work well if markets make a big move once the trade outlook becomes clearer.
A similar pattern appeared in February 2025 after the first U.S. tariff announcement. That shock caused a steep but temporary drop, and implied volatility on Canadian equities jumped almost 30% over two weeks before conditions stabilized. If that history repeats, options premiums may rise again in the near term.
US unemployment claims fell to 206,000, with fewer people filing new benefit applications in the week ending 14 February
New US applications for unemployment insurance fell to 206K in the week ending 14 February. This was below the 225K estimate and down from the prior week’s revised 229K, according to a US Department of Labor report released on Thursday.
The four-week moving average slipped by 1,000 to 219K, down from the prior week’s revised 220K. Continuing jobless claims rose by 17K to 1.869 million in the week ending 7 February.
Dollar Reaction To Claims Surprise
After the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 97.90. The report said the US Dollar found support in the market. The labor market looks stronger than expected. New jobless claims dropped to 206K, well below forecasts near 225K. That suggests the economy still has momentum and does not fit a clear slowdown story. The quick move in DXY toward 97.90 shows traders are already reacting to that strength. This report matters even more when viewed with recent inflation and spending data. January’s inflation report showed the Consumer Price Index holding firm at 3.3%, still above the Fed’s target. Retail sales also rose 0.7% last month, beating expectations and showing consumers are still spending. Together, a tight labor market and steady demand strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. With this backdrop, interest rate markets may keep reducing the odds of a rate cut in the first half of the year. Traders could use options on Fed Funds futures to position for rates staying high into the summer. In similar periods of unexpected strength during 2025, markets often responded by selling short-term bonds, which pushed yields higher.Equities Rates And Options Positioning
For equity traders, the picture is mixed. A solid economy can support corporate earnings, but “higher for longer” rates can cap gains. That same mix created choppy trading in the fall of 2025. In this kind of market, options strategies on the S&P 500—such as collars or spreads—may help limit downside risk while keeping some upside exposure. A stronger US dollar is the most direct takeaway, and that trend could continue in the weeks ahead. The dollar is helped by a widening rate gap versus currencies like the euro, especially after the European Central Bank hinted at a more dovish stance last week. Traders may look at buying call options on USD or selling put options on EUR/USD to take advantage of this policy split. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/GBP stays firm near 0.8737 as UK data fuels expectations of BoE rate cuts and weakens sterling
The Euro stayed strong against the Pound on Thursday. Hopes of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts kept Sterling under pressure. EUR/GBP traded near 0.8737, slipping slightly after nearly touching 0.8750.
New UK inflation data strengthened the case for rate cuts. CPI fell 0.5% month-on-month in January, after rising 0.4% in December. Annual CPI slowed to 3.0% from 3.4%.
