HSBC believes that a large surplus after summer could affect its $65 per barrel Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025. The bank expects an extra 550,000 barrels per day in September, which will change the supply and demand balance. Right now, summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East, especially for power generation, is using up extra OPEC+ barrels. This seasonal demand helps balance the increased supply but raises concerns about future supply and consumption. HSBC warns that we might see a big difference between supply and demand as summer ends. The forecast surplus—boosted by the expected 550,000 barrels per day in September—signals that more production, without a corresponding rise in demand, could lower Brent prices significantly. The $65 forecast for Q4 2025 now faces more challenges because of this added supply. The current use of OPEC+ barrels, driven by high temperatures in the Middle East and Northern Hemisphere, is seasonal and will likely drop as the demand for power generation decreases. This indicates that the extra demand provided by summer is temporary. As temperatures cool and the use of air conditioning decreases, the demand cushion will lessen and make the surplus more apparent. Looking ahead, the extra barrels expected in September shouldn’t be considered alone; they should be balanced against the likely drop in demand as we approach late Q3. This shift increases the risk of price changes. Remember, the futures market usually anticipates these trends in advance. Wang’s supply projections highlight another concern: the market won’t lack oil, and production levels might not match consumer demand in the future. For traders in futures and options markets, this data indicates that there may be limited potential for higher prices in the medium term, unless there’s a surprise drop in global inventories. The motivation to buy long positions for the fourth quarter weakens if real consumption doesn’t rise with production. Instead of waiting for inventory reports to show trends, we should adjust our exposure based on reliable production signals and future demand indicators. It’s important to note that major exporting countries have shown strong production capacity despite past output limits. This might boost traders’ confidence in supply stability, even if economic or geopolitical risks decrease. In the future, the shape of the forward curve may show signs of strain. A shift from backwardation to contango could indicate a softer spot price and make long positions more costly to hold. In this case, storage costs would become more relevant. Traders watching time spreads should keep a close eye on these potential changes in the curve, as they influence outright pricing and the cost basis for many arbitrage strategies. While seasonal demand provides short-term support, macro oil balance data suggest heavier supply conditions may emerge as early as late Q3. We should anticipate more pressure on the front of the curve, particularly if speculative long positions are reduced ahead of expected inventory increases. Relying on financial flows to prop up crude prices could be risky amid weak physical balances. Markets are influenced by various factors. However, it’s tough to argue for sustained price increases when future balance data is less favorable. As always, we depend on clear supply updates more than temporary demand spikes. Therefore, our strategy should focus on staying flexible and prepared for quick price changes.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The EUR/CHF currency pair is stuck in a narrow trading range. This is due to different policies from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Swiss government have lowered their growth forecasts for 2025. They now expect Swiss economic growth to be 1.3%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.7%. The ECB has paused its cycle of rate cuts after eight decreases, while the SNB took a softer approach in June by lowering its policy rate to 0%. Swiss inflation data has been mixed. Consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May but increased a little by 0.1% in June.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment

In the Eurozone, economic sentiment seems to be getting better. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to 4.5 in July. The Swiss Franc remains popular as a safe-haven asset, even with the SNB’s relaxed monetary policy. Switzerland’s economy relies heavily on its service sector and strong exports, especially in watches, pharmaceuticals, and food. Political and economic stability, along with favorable tax policies, boosts the Swiss Franc’s value. There is also a slight connection between the Franc, Gold, and Oil prices. Due to the different monetary policies of the SNB and the ECB, the EUR/CHF pair is unlikely to break its current range unless there’s a significant policy shift or an external event. With the SNB’s more accommodating stance and its June rate cut to 0%, the central bank aims to stimulate demand but accepts some risk of currency appreciation. This choice, made after subdued inflation in May and a small rebound in June, suggests that rising domestic prices are not a major concern for Bern. On the other hand, the ECB’s decision to stop its rate cuts after eight reductions signals that policymakers in Frankfurt prefer to take time to see the broader economic effects of their previous actions. Recent sentiment readings in the Eurozone, including the rise in the Sentix Confidence Index to 4.5, indicate a better outlook for investors. However, this is unlikely to create significant optimism for the euro unless real economic performance improves.

Swiss Franc’s Risk-Off Reputation

It’s important to recognize that the Swiss Franc continues to enjoy its status as a risk-off asset. Despite the recent dovish actions by the SNB, the currency hasn’t sharply depreciated. This indicates that market participants still value Switzerland’s political and economic stability, even with low yields. Sectors driven by exports, like pharmaceuticals and luxury goods, are less affected by weaknesses in the domestic economy. This buffer, along with advantages from tax and regulations, may help keep pressure off the Franc. For those trading derivatives, particularly directional pairs like EUR/CHF, the risk-reward outlook is less attractive in the current situation. With both central banks sending mixed signals—one pausing and the other easing—it’s harder to account for sustained volatility. Traders might consider reducing leverage or adjusting to lower delta positions for short-term strategies. The short-term implied volatility remains slightly high compared to realized volatility, indicating that options are reasonably priced but not cheap. We also need to watch the weak link between the Franc and commodities like Gold and Oil. While the connections are not strong, commodities often act as hedges and confidence indicators, especially for currencies considered safe havens. A sharp increase in commodity prices, especially crude oil, could shift sentiment towards safe-haven flows. Considering all this, with the Eurozone slowly stabilizing and Switzerland maintaining strong fundamentals, it is wise to focus on relative macro signals instead of just technical indicators for now. Positions should reflect that policy differences are unlikely to be resolved soon, and any significant movement will probably need an external catalyst. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Trump first announced his tariff policy would begin on April 9. However, after the market fell, he postponed it to July 9, which led to him being nicknamed ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Chickens Out). The deadline has now been pushed back again to August 1, as officially stated. Some see this change as a strategy, recalling past events like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which showed that tariffs can harm trade.

The Pattern Of Deferrals

In short, we keep seeing the same pattern: an announcement, a deadline, a market reaction, and then a delay. Trump set April 9 as the date. When the market didn’t react well, he quietly changed it to early July. Now, we are looking at August 1. Repeating this process without a different outcome tests traders’ patience. Many have shortened this behavior to the acronym ‘TACO,’ reflecting a growing skepticism in trading circles. His inconsistent track record on tariffs adds to the uncertainty, complicating price predictions. This unreliability creates artificial volatility in derivative instruments that usually follow stable policies. Experts have noted that this method of hinting at tariffs only to postpone them mirrors past economic events, especially the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Many economists see it as an example of how protectionism can harm global trade. Powell has expressed concerns about sudden policy changes causing market imbalances, even before the latest delay. For those in derivatives, it’s not useful to second-guess future delays. What’s important is adjusting for shorter timelines. Hedging strategies that counted on the July options window need to be reconsidered, especially since volatility floors are now higher due to previous false starts. Highlighting inconsistencies doesn’t help—continuity isn’t the focus here.

Adjusting To New Realities

We should adjust forward volatility across the board. In the last two weeks, implied dispersion between indices and individual stocks has widened, indicating that the market isn’t pricing systemic moves equally. If the tariff timeline is extended again, instruments linked to cyclical industrials could face repricing risks. Traders still holding short gamma before earnings may need to reassess their exposure for the August expiration, which carries a different risk profile. Pricing binary outcomes has always been tricky, and if the scenarios keep changing, we need to rethink our approach. It’s no longer about expecting action or inaction—it’s about using volatility as a policy tool. Practically, straddle premiums are likely to remain high, offering better shorting opportunities if past trends persist. However, wider greeks buffers should be used. Market makers are adjusting skew across various major indices because of this. In the coming two weeks, keep your models flexible and stop assuming that policy clarity is just around the corner. The evidence suggests otherwise. August 1 is now the critical date for the market, but given the past record, it’s wise to prioritize flexibility over conviction. Return models should reflect this—especially those reliant on directional follow-throughs. In the past, yields have reacted unpredictably to tariff delays, and many desks are now incorporating that assumption into their curve hedges. For spreads dependent on equity-linked volatility responding to macro risks, decreasing confidence is becoming a trading opportunity. The duration of this pattern will rely not just on policy actions, but also on when pricing stabilizes amidst these fluctuating announcements. Until then, protective structures—like verticals or calendar spreads—may be best for those with intraday exposure. Keep your positions short and plan your exits. We’ve learned that much. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The GBP/USD pair is stable around 1.3638, but this calm hides important shifts in monetary policy and the economy that will affect short to medium-term trading. The US dollar got a boost from strong employment data, indicating confidence in the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to policy changes. In the US, Nonfarm Payroll numbers exceeded expectations, reaching 147,000, along with a slight drop in the unemployment rate. This shows that the US economy remains robust, allowing the Fed to avoid immediate interest rate cuts. As concerns grow about trade tariffs, investors are becoming more cautious, which tends to support the US dollar, especially against currencies like the pound that are already under pressure.

Upcoming UK Data

In the UK, talk of tax increases linked to changes in welfare spending creates a heavy fiscal atmosphere. The upcoming GDP and production data may not bring good news, especially if higher taxes threaten consumer spending. The Bank of England (BoE) is also being watched for potential rate cuts, and the contrast with the Fed’s current stance adds downside risk for the pound. Technical analysis shows signs of weariness for the pair as it approaches the top of its recent trading range. If momentum slows, we could see a pullback to around 1.3600. If it goes lower, watch for support around 1.3561, where traders might tighten their stop-loss orders. The pound has seen mixed performance, showing strength against the New Zealand dollar this month, but that’s mainly due to weaknesses elsewhere. Next week brings several key US economic reports. Initial Jobless Claims will provide more context to the labor market story put forth by the Nonfarm Payrolls data. More importantly, the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting will reveal how united the Fed is on interest rate decisions. If they indicate a lack of urgency to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen further, particularly if short-term Treasury yields remain firm. We’ll closely watch price action around 1.3660 to determine if the pair will consolidate or decline. Any dovish remarks from BoE members regarding domestic data might support the idea that UK rate cuts are coming sooner than previously thought. This will affect options pricing and futures interest rate expectations, which often shift before official announcements. In the coming sessions, the focus should not only be on the data releases but also on how they relate to existing policy paths. It’s crucial to see if recent lows can hold under pressure, as this may indicate a shift in sentiment from neutral to bearish. Traders managing derivatives should prioritize protecting against downside risks instead of trying to predict the next move. Let’s keep a flexible approach and take advantage of any short-term fluctuations when news breaks through established support or resistance levels. The narrative of policy divergence is solidifying, and market reactions are likely to favor clarity over ambiguity. Upcoming data will be crucial, but the market’s interpretation may not be uniform across currencies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Trump has signed an Executive Order that changes the tariff deadline to August 1, pushing it back from July, according to the White House. Additionally, the government will stop federal subsidies for energy sources controlled by foreign companies. This update gives market players an extra month to adjust their strategies. Shifting a deadline related to trade policy often changes how people feel about the market, which can affect the speed and direction of trading sentiment. In the short term, this delay may lead traders to expect fewer big price changes. However, it also means uncertainty could linger for longer. Trump’s written decision is about buying time rather than canceling or lessening policy actions. This clear intent matters because it removes what had been a risky event approaching soon. As a result, implied volatility in related contracts might temporarily decrease, unless new news comes to light. At the same time, ending federal support for energy sources linked to foreign owners is a focused strategy, not a broad market change. This move will impact pricing structures. For traders working with commodities, it highlights costs for producers, especially those based overseas. While it might not shift global prices immediately, assets in this area could face more pressure. From a trading perspective, contracts with earlier expiration dates now carry different levels of risk. This shift in timing could affect how policy risk influences prices, possibly flattening curves or compressing spreads. As we bridge this delay, we might see liquidity dry up in past hotspots and then shift to new areas by late July. It’s wise to reassess short premium strategies before the start of August. Powell recently avoided directly commenting on policy changes but mentioned the slow connection between government decisions and economic impacts. This still holds true. The reduction in fiscal support for foreign energy interests will impact broader economic indicators. Keep an eye on inventory reports and energy consumption forecasts, especially for the Midwest and Pacific regions—timing is crucial here. We are entering a phase shaped by scheduled political actions. Although the link between policy announcements and asset volatility isn’t always straight, it becomes more predictable with set dates. The extension to August creates a gap where inefficiencies in pricing can either develop or resolve. Watch for differences between implied and realized volatility as we approach that date. Tariff-sensitive trades, especially in equity derivatives related to manufacturing and imports, might start seeing tighter hedging boundaries between June and July. Options with uneven risk exposure will feel the impact sooner. Pay attention to dispersion shapes and gamma profiles for signs of market direction. Be alert for volume spikes on calendar spreads when new announcements are made. These changes are not meant to directly affect domestic consumption, but when pricing for foreign-linked inputs changes, the effects will be felt somewhere. Whether this impacts currency hedging or alters expectations for capital movement will happen in days, not weeks. Short-term options on FX futures tied to Asia-Pacific currencies could provide early hints. Overall, these actions are more about mechanics than sentiment. They involve deadlines, clear subsidies, and defined connections, allowing models to adapt and update quickly. Forecasts with set parameters are easier to trade. However, we should remember that mechanical doesn’t mean stable. The systems will adjust to these dates, and we need to adapt as well.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

US stock market indices dropped on Monday after President Donald Trump announced possible 10% tariffs on countries aligned with BRICS. This has caused uncertainty, even though the Treasury Secretary stated that trade offers remain open until August 1. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite fell between 0.5% and 0.8% in the morning. The proposed tariffs could impact up to 29 countries that are moving closer to BRICS.

Rapid Tariff Changes

Vietnam recently secured a trade deal with the US, reducing its tariff from a proposed 46% to 20%. However, new threats could increase this to 30%. In addition, Elon Musk’s announcement of a new political party led to an 8% drop in Tesla’s stock. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned that trade deals could be finalized with 18 nations this week, offering a potential positive outlook. However, challenges continue with countries like South Korea requesting deadline extensions and facing tough negotiations with Japan. Market movements early this week showed a rise in risk aversion. Typically, equity indices react to investor sentiment and forecasts. On Monday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ Composite fell between half a percentage point and just under one, almost immediately following Trump’s tariff remarks. What’s important is not just the drop in numbers, but the speed and breadth of the market’s reaction. This time, the 10% tariff could affect not only traditional trade partners but also nations aligning with BRICS, a group that is gaining influence in sectors like energy and manufacturing. This wide net suggests a more protectionist approach, which could disrupt equity markets and heighten volatility in options and futures related to global trade. Vietnam’s trade deal exemplifies how quickly tariffs can change. After securing a revised tariff of 20%, discussions of a potential rise to 30% emerged. This indicates that tariffs may be used more as negotiation tools rather than fiscal measures. With rapid changes, trading positions must account for sudden shifts triggered by headlines. Tesla experienced an 8% decline after Musk’s political announcement, showing how specific news can impact a stock independently from wider economic trends. This effect influences not only the stock prices but also the implied volatility in related options. Premiums for Tesla contracts had already been rising ahead of earnings but are now increasing due to new political risks.

Trading Strategies Amid Volatility

Bessent’s comment about potentially finalizing trade agreements with 18 nations aimed to soften the concerns over tariffs. However, negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea remain complicated. South Korea’s request for a timeline extension highlights internal hesitations, raising uncertainty in hedging strategies linked to these regions. For traders working with derivatives, especially complex spreads and volatility products, the current situation reflects asymmetric inputs. We don’t price futures based on fairness but on stress levels and their likelihood of resolution. Right now, delta hedging major positions should be done with tighter thresholds, as we may witness heightened gamma effects on both declines and sharp recoveries. Political developments could lead to sudden market shifts. Traders in tech or sectors affected by tariffs might rethink weekly expirations and instead opt for longer-term calendar spreads to manage risks over time. The uncertainty from these tariff threats, headline-driven shifts in asset pricing, and mixed signals from the Treasury suggest short-term dislocation between realized and implied volatility. It’s crucial to note that standard backtesting won’t cover these political shocks. This month is more about exercising discretion than relying solely on models, as tweet-triggered market changes can distort pricing faster than macroeconomic updates. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Canada’s Finance Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, has asked cabinet members to find ways to cut spending by tens of billions of dollars. This request aims to help streamline government expenses and better balance the budget.

Focus On Economic Stability

The Finance Minister’s goal is to keep the economy stable and support long-term growth. To achieve this, he wants departments to closely review their current spending. Details about specific cuts have not been shared yet. More information on how these reductions will be carried out is still pending. Champagne has emphasized that departments must carefully review their budgets. This is not a suggestion, but a requirement. He wants significant cuts in government spending, even in areas that seemed safe. For traders interested in interest rates and market trends, this isn’t just routine financial work. It signals a shift towards austerity instead of stimulus, which will impact yield curves. Bond markets will adjust their expectations, not just for domestic policies, but also about Canada’s creditworthiness in the coming months.

Impact On Market Participants

The lack of specific details about where cuts will happen creates uncertainty, especially across different sectors. In our markets, this uncertainty can lead to a risk-averse attitude. Traders who prefer clear information may struggle in the short term. However, during this unclear period, taking defensive positions may help cushion losses as markets assess which areas face budget cuts. Champagne’s focus isn’t just on trimming expenses. His mention of economic stability suggests a significant shift, indicating that fiscal conditions may require urgent changes. Politically, this is a shift in approach. Financially, deep cuts could lower borrowing needs and present refinancing opportunities. Market players should not assume these cuts are typical budget tightening. They need to watch borrowing trends, auction sizes, and immediate revenue expectations from the previous budget. If departments must find “tens of billions” in cuts, it would affect government bond issuance and reduce supply pressures, impacting prices, especially in the medium to long-term. History shows that when spending becomes strict, defensive sectors may receive less fiscal support, whereas assets linked to real returns and safer investments often gain favor. Investor interest may shift toward lower-risk options, especially if the outlook reflects less spending capacity rather than merely less political will. Discretion is important; allocation committees may not respond uniformly worldwide. Traders should keep an eye on central bank communications. If policy rates change alongside these budget adjustments, it could reinforce market movements and increase volatility, particularly for options. For now, this announcement provides a direction rather than a detailed plan. If Champagne’s spending cuts are swift, futures and rate swaps will react quickly, preempting quarterly data — and spreads may widen just enough to be noticeable. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

EUR/USD is falling as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut fade, and upcoming tariff decisions increase demand for the US Dollar. The pair is testing support around 1.7360, while the US Dollar gains strength due to rising expectations from the Federal Reserve. Market predictions now show only a 4.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in July, a drop from 20.7% last week. In September, the chance of a rate cut has decreased to 64.5% from 75.4%. Strong US Nonfarm Payroll figures are making rate cuts less likely.

Challenges For The Euro

The Euro is struggling against the Dollar, with yield differences favoring the US currency. Also, potential new US tariffs could heighten trade tensions, boosting the Dollar’s position. The EUR/USD pair is testing support near the 1.1700 level. If key levels break, there could be corrections. A recovery above 1.1800 might spark renewed interest, leading to further gains past recent highs. The Euro, used by 19 countries in the European Union, is the second most traded currency worldwide. Its value is influenced by interest rates from the European Central Bank, inflation data, economic indicators, and trade balances. The recent decline in the euro-dollar exchange rate is mainly due to changing expectations around US monetary policy. The US labor market, particularly strong Nonfarm Payroll numbers, suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to soften its stance soon. This outlook is now reflected in the market. Just a week ago, there was hope that rates would start to fall by July; now that belief has almost vanished. This change has important effects. With fewer rate cuts expected, yields in the US are more appealing than those in the euro area. This yield gap draws capital to dollar-denominated assets. When global investors seek higher returns, even small interest rate differences matter. This shift in sentiment enhances the demand for the dollar.

Investor Sentiment And Market Response

Additionally, the possibility of new tariffs from Washington is increasing the demand for safe assets. When trade policy tensions rise, investors often turn to more reliable assets. The US Dollar fulfills that role. As risk aversion increases, even temporarily, it puts downward pressure on euro-dollar valuations. For those focusing on foreign exchange derivatives, this shift means re-evaluating strategies. The pair is lingering near 1.1700, a level that has shown support in the past. It has attracted buyers during earlier sell-offs, giving it some technical stability. However, if it breaks lower, volatility may increase. There’s potential for further selling, especially if additional data or tariffs reinforce the current trend. However, it’s not all negative. If momentum shifts or buyers gain confidence, a recovery through 1.1800 should be watched closely. This would indicate that sellers are beginning to retreat—potentially weakening the dollar’s recent support—and could create new opportunities. If it surpasses a retracement level just above, it may reach previous highs around 1.1900 and possibly further. While the euro is influenced by decisions from the European Central Bank and macroeconomic data in the region, it currently lacks the strength to mount a strong recovery. If inflation in Europe rises sharply or if growth improves significantly, the situation could change. Without that, pressures remain skewed in one direction, making a sudden reversal unlikely. The US side still has the greater influence, as shown by the significant adjustments in expectations for the Federal Reserve. As narratives and data diverge in the upcoming days, we can find opportunities both above support and near resistance. However, this requires a carefully measured approach and quick responses to economic news. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Trump is implementing tariffs on several countries, changing their export dynamics. The tariffs are set at 25% for Tunisia, 32% for Indonesia, 35% for Serbia and Bangladesh, and 36% for Cambodia and Thailand. Bosnia will also face a 30% tariff. These tariffs are set to start on August 1 unless the administration changes its plans before then. These trade measures aim to limit the flow of goods from some emerging economies. The White House claims this will help protect local producers, but it will also increase the cost of imported goods from the affected countries. With tariffs ranging from 25% to 36%, they are high enough to discourage global exporters. This could lead to a shift in shipments or a need for these countries to renegotiate prices to keep their market share. For instance, Cambodia and Thailand will have to consider their pricing and supply chains if they want to maintain trade with the U.S. The government argues that these tariffs counteract unfair advantages like subsidies and currency manipulation that distort competition. While these claims haven’t been tested in formal trade arbitration yet, Washington believes symmetrical tariffs are a necessary short-term solution. As a result, there will likely be increased volatility in import-heavy industries. Finished goods produced in Southeast Asia, such as apparel, electronics, and plastics, are particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations, even before the tariffs take effect in August. Historically, trade disruptions often lead to preemptive stockpiling, which can artificially boost demand and raise logistics costs through July. This pattern has been seen before when tariffs change monthly. What matters now is how these tariffs affect trade relationships. When tariffs are imposed, they alter dynamics significantly. Not every asset tied to these exporting nations will respond the same way. We’ve observed differing impacts across sectors and currencies. For example, textile and apparel margins often narrow first, sometimes before risk premiums or foreign exchange markets react to changing current accounts. In busy equity and future markets, brief spikes in volume usually precede directional shifts. This trend is already visible in the regional ETF market. Serbia’s basic manufacturing exposure is notable, not because of volume but due to strict price controls, which raises concerns about how these costs will affect consumer pricing abroad. While some may focus only on overall market impacts, price reactions can take weeks to align with trade announcements. Sudden changes in trade policy often lead to initial overshooting in positioning, followed by sharp reversals as the situation becomes clearer. Importers inside the U.S. also need to react quickly. Domestic buyers, like those in Bangladesh purchasing medical disposables, often work with narrow margins. Changing sourcing patterns can take weeks or months, leading to inefficiencies and volatility in indexes tied to shipping and industrial sectors, not just traditional consumer markets. We are closely monitoring volume spreads and positioning in short-term swaps and related Southeast Asian currency markets. Recent movements suggest a reassessment of late-Q3 exposure. Traders focusing on short-term risk should remain flexible, especially with news about potential exemptions or delays, as the risk of sudden changes increases with each announcement. Timing is crucial for how long these tariffs will last. Past policy shifts have often changed mid-quarter, influenced by domestic political reactions rather than global pressures. This adds uncertainty—whether rates will stay the same or decrease isn’t just about the economy; it also depends on timing and support from political parties and industry lobbying. Trade has become more fluid, but capital adjusts faster, often recalibrating before any policy changes are made.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

NZD/USD has been declining for the third day in a row, influenced by caution ahead of the RBNZ interest rate announcement. The pair is currently trading around 0.6005, down by 0.90% today, driven by worries over possible US tariff threats. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.25%. This comes after six rate cuts since August 2024. Most economists think rates will remain stable, but some anticipate potential cuts later due to the impact of US tariffs.

Technical Overview and Market Sentiments

The Reserve Bank faces the challenge of controlling inflation within a target range of 1–3% while dealing with a slowing economy. The NZD is vulnerable to global issues, especially ongoing US-China trade tensions and declining demand from China. From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is forming a bullish flag pattern, indicating potential upward movement if the support holds. The 50-day EMA at 0.5983 is a key support level. Indicators like RSI and MACD show caution, suggesting a possible weakening in momentum. If the pair breaks below 0.5980, it may lead to a downward shift, aiming for support at 0.5900. The upcoming RBNZ decision is crucial, affecting NZD’s value significantly. As NZD/USD continues to fall for the third session, uncertainty around the RBNZ’s decision and heightened trade tensions are putting pressure on the pair. The current drop of about 0.90% brings it around 0.6005, highlighting how fears about potential US tariffs influence currency movements.

Potential Outcomes and Market Reactions

Markets seem to mostly agree that the Reserve Bank will keep the Official Cash Rate at 3.25%. This follows a series of rate cuts, and while more cuts are possible in the future, they are unlikely at this time. If US tariff discussions escalate or demand from China decreases further later this year, we might hear more dovish comments. The current stance reflects the trade-off the bank faces between easing pressure on households and businesses and maintaining its 1–3% inflation target. Wheeler’s RBNZ is navigating a challenging environment. Slower growth in China and unresolved US-China trade discussions contribute to a cautious outlook for the kiwi. Lower Chinese import demand adds pressure on a currency closely linked to commodity exports. Technically, the current price action suggests caution. The price is moving within what appears to be a bullish flag—generally a sign of potential recovery—but confidence is low. The 50-day EMA near 0.5983 has been a respected level this week. A strong move below this level could shift sentiment significantly, especially given the negative divergence in MACD and weakness in the RSI. If it falls below 0.5980, the focus will shift lower to 0.5900, which is the next important technical level to watch. We believe that a strong close under the EMA requires tighter risk management. We’re observing whether the bullish flag can maintain its support. Signs of fading upward momentum warrant careful monitoring of any significant moves. Going forward, the critical issue is how the central bank’s tone aligns with future economic conditions. While the rate policy may remain unchanged for now, it is highly sensitive to external factors. Any comments about labor market strength or lower growth forecasts could influence market direction. Traders should focus on the language of the RBNZ’s statements and any changes to inflation forecasts, rather than reacting solely to the headlines. Given the mixed performance of risk assets, there is high sensitivity to broader dollar sentiment. Changes in the US dollar related to tariffs or inflation reports could quickly shift market direction. Despite some technical signals, there’s no strong incentive to make aggressive moves until more clarity emerges after the announcement. We view the 0.5980 level as a pivot point until clear trends appear. Movements around this level might be more noise than signals. Monitoring implied volatility leading up to the announcement could also guide potential trading opportunities. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now