Most analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower its cash rate. A Reuters poll reveals that 31 out of 37 economists predict a cut of 25 basis points. However, analysts at Bank of America believe the RBA may keep rates steady. This is partly due to ongoing high inflation, with the trimmed mean inflation rate likely to exceed the 2.5% target soon.

Labour Market and Inflation Risks

The unemployment rate is below the RBA’s target of 4.2%, indicating a tight job market. Additionally, unit labour costs are rising because of weak productivity growth. These elements contribute to ongoing inflation risks. As a result, the RBA might choose to pause and reconsider its approach before making any changes to monetary policy. In summary, the central bank is facing competing pressures. On one side, the expectation for a rate cut is strong, with many economists supporting this view. They are likely considering sluggish consumer activity and a slowdown in housing and lending as reasons for a change. From a macro demand standpoint, it makes sense that easing might be appropriate. On the flip side, Bank of America’s arguments also hold weight. Inflation, particularly the trimmed mean, isn’t decreasing as hoped. Rising labour costs, combined with slow productivity, could lead to persistent price pressures. This is concerning. High employment rates add to it; when people have stable jobs and income, their spending habits often remain strong. This can keep pressure on inflation, especially in services.

Market Considerations and Positioning

We believe these mixed signals limit the potential for aggressive trading strategies in the short term. Monetary policy does not work in isolation, and even minor rate changes impact valuations across the board. In an environment where one side suggests easing and the other warns of caution, it’s smart to keep options flexible. Derivative exposure, particularly near-term rate contracts, may be sensitive to sudden changes if expectations shift after the next inflation report. The market could quickly readjust, especially if new data deviates from the current consensus. Significant changes or surprises in real wage growth could lead to revised expectations for terminal rates. We recommend monitoring implied volatility in short-dated futures. If this measure starts to widen, it could indicate growing market uncertainty as the monetary decision date approaches. For now, staying nimble is crucial, rather than making large trades based solely on dominant views. Biases can lead to rapid corrections when forward guidance shifts. If wage pressures continue and the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows unexpected increases, it’s unlikely that a swift loosening cycle will follow. Traders who think early easing is guaranteed might need to adjust quickly, which carries significant risk. It’s important to pay attention to the language used in the statements following the meeting. A change in how upside risks, particularly concerning wage movements, are communicated could significantly affect short-term rates. Until then, it may be wiser to engage in shorter-term transactions rather than holding positions influenced too heavily by uncertain predictions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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In May, Japan saw real wages fall by 2.9% compared to a year ago. This is the largest drop in almost two years and marks the fifth straight month of decline. Nominal wages increased only by 1.0%, the slowest growth since March 2024. This slowdown is mainly due to an 18.7% drop in special bonus payments, and regular base pay and overtime earnings are also rising more slowly. The wage data has not yet reflected the record salary increases agreed to in this year’s spring labor negotiations. Smaller companies, which often don’t have unions, are slower to raise wages. On a positive note, household spending jumped by 4.7% year-on-year in May, much higher than the expected 1.2% increase and rebounding from a previous 0.1% decline. However, there are worries that upcoming U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports may hurt company profits and future wage growth. This adds pressure on the Bank of Japan as it tries to normalize interest rates. What we see highlights a growing gap between agreed wage increases and what people are actually receiving in their paychecks. The year-on-year decline in real wages, the steepest in nearly two years, shows how inflation is outpacing most workers’ earnings. Special bonuses, usually a cushion during tough times, have decreased sharply by 18.7%. This isn’t just seasonal; base pay and overtime are also increasing slowly when we need stronger earnings the most. It’s essential to recognize that changes at larger firms don’t always happen quickly across the board. Wage agreements from the spring, though record-setting, aren’t immediately applied everywhere. Many smaller businesses, without formal unions, are delaying or reducing raises. This creates uncertainty about domestic demand, even with the recent increase in consumer spending. Speaking of that spending surge, the 4.7% annual rise in household expenditures surprised many. After several weak months, this level of spending indicates more resilience than expected. It may be due to pent-up demand or delayed support measures. However, we shouldn’t rush to see it as a turning point, especially when real incomes are flat or falling. On top of domestic issues, there are rising concerns about external trade pressures. Upcoming tariffs could hit corporate profits so hard that companies may rethink their pay plans. This risk is very real now. When profit margins shrink, wage growth usually slows or even reverses. The Bank of Japan, aiming to gradually raise interest rates, is navigating a complicated situation. The softness in wages combined with increased spending makes it tough to gauge demand-driven inflation. We might see more caution in policy moves, despite some calls for urgency. If tightening hesitates further, it could widen yield differentials, intensifying currency pressures. Some of this widening has already begun. Thus, we should expect volatility in rates and spreads to stay high. Understanding the changing wage landscape and slower-than-expected earnings growth is crucial for framing future policy reactions. We need patience but not passivity; we should remain attentive to the data and not just follow trends.

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Japan’s main trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, had two phone discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday and Saturday. They were preparing for a July 9 deadline, which could lead to a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports. President Trump hinted that the final tariff could be even higher. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that Japan would not compromise on its national interests. He described the negotiations as “extremely vigorous.” Japan continues to work closely with the U.S. as discussions progress, and these talks will likely last until the deadline.

Rising Tensions in Trade Negotiations

This article highlights an escalating trade dispute between Japan and the United States. A potential 24% tariff on Japanese goods is approaching. The two high-level calls between Akazawa and Lutnick show that although officials are communicating, tensions are increasing. President Trump’s comment about possibly raising the tariff suggests that the U.S. may be using shock tactics in the negotiations. Ishiba’s comments show that Japan is firm and aware of what’s at stake. The term “extremely vigorous” reflects the intensity of the discussions. We are on the brink of a policy decision that could change trade balances quickly. The July 9 deadline is a pressure point for both governments and the broader financial system, particularly in areas like transport, manufacturing, and currency. For those involved in derivative strategies, it’s crucial to adjust timelines now. Changing positions too early could lead to losses if negotiations gain momentum later. Waiting too long can be risky if one side makes unexpected moves. The uncertainty around this deadline often leads to significant shifts in trading strategies. What we need now is less focus on directional trades and more on implied volatility spreads to prepare for sudden market changes. We should not overlook the risk of an announcement before markets open in Tokyo or New York. This could lead to liquidity issues, particularly if a sudden policy change occurs.

Market Reactions and Strategy Adjustments

We are already seeing increased hedging in JPY pairs and auto manufacturing indexes. It’s unlikely that this is just slow money entering the market. Given the consistent messages from Ishiba’s administration, a total reversal seems unlikely. Leading up to July 9, markets won’t just wait for news—they will also begin to factor in different scenarios, and they will do so quickly. Traders need to adjust their exposure based on their confidence in reaching a deal. With the prime minister standing firm and Washington staying tough, expectations for a gentle resolution may be unrealistic. Lutnick has not hinted at a change in approach, and this silence may indicate internal disagreements rather than a solid strategy. This type of uncertainty can lead to increased risk. Regardless of the outcome, the path taken will be crucial. Both the result and the manner in which it’s achieved will impact our pricing models, especially those based on steady policies and global growth. Therefore, rebalancing portfolios appears to be essential right now. Many desks are reporting a rise in short-term gamma risk, yet few are fully unwinding. Instead, spreads are being widened and monitored more closely. This trend shows a mix of anxiety and sensible decision-making. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gabriel Makhlouf, the head of the Irish central bank and a member of the ECB governing council, spoke at a conference in France. He discussed why the euro isn’t ready to replace the US dollar as the world’s main reserve currency. The problem lies in Europe’s incomplete economic and financial integration. Makhlouf pointed out that the eurozone does not have a single fiscal structure or a safe asset like US Treasuries. He mentioned that recent gains in the euro compared to the dollar are more about concerns over U.S. governance than any shift in currency dominance. He urged the European Union to take advantage of current global uncertainties to strengthen its internal market. He also suggested enhancing collective financing and increasing strategic independence within the EU. In short, Makhlouf emphasizes that even though the euro may temporarily gain strength against the dollar, it does not mean it is close to overtaking the dollar as the leading reserve currency. The core issue is structural. The eurozone is still divided in significant ways, such as lacking a unified budget across member countries and a shared government bond that serves the same purpose as US Treasuries. Because of this, large institutions—like foreign central banks or sovereign wealth funds—have little incentive to shift away from dollar-denominated assets for a long time. This observation is crucial. Currency fluctuations can lead to quick changes in various derivatives like options and futures. However, here we have a senior policymaker cautioning against getting too excited about temporary euro gains. The euro might be rising now, but this is partly due to worries about American governance, not a sign of European strength. This situation also implies that the current ups and downs in euro-related contracts might not truly represent structural changes; rather, they may be driven by events and not by lasting shifts in capital flows. This perspective should guide how we manage exposure in the coming weeks. Risking too much based solely on euro appreciation overlooks ongoing uncertainties. Makhlouf also highlights what Europe should do in the current situation. He argues that policymakers should view instability in other areas as an opportunity to strengthen Europe. This means enhancing financial integration within the bloc and rethinking how Europe’s capital resources are pooled and utilized. He advocates for greater independence in economic strategy, reducing dependence on external partners for supply chains and financial systems. From a positioning standpoint, these ideas won’t have immediate effects. However, they will influence the future currency risk environment. If Europe moves toward stronger fiscal coordination or common borrowing instruments, we can expect longer-term volatility and rate products to adjust accordingly. For now, the FX market seems to respond to external events rather than underlying policy fundamentals. At this moment, positioning should be based on observable trends rather than speculation. Keep exposure durations brief and focus risk strategies on known short-term catalysts. Even if the euro continues to rise, it’s essential to look deeper; this uptick is not driven by robust demand but by waning confidence in other areas.

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Chinese companies are reportedly rerouting exports through Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs. In May, direct shipments from China to the US fell by 43%, while overall Chinese exports rose by 4.8%. This increase was driven by a 15% rise in exports to Southeast Asia and a 12% boost to the EU. In response, the US has applied a 40% tariff on goods that are trans-shipped as part of its trade agreement with Vietnam.

Trade Redirection Strategies

The sharp drop in direct exports from China to the US—down 43% in just one month—suggests that there’s more to this than simply reduced demand. It indicates a strategic redirection of trade; goods still originate in China, but the routes have changed. This practice obscures the actual source of products while maintaining export levels. China’s export growth of nearly 5% during this period contradicts the decline in direct shipments to the US, hinting that rerouting through neighboring areas is already working. For instance, exports to Southeast Asia rose by 15%, while the European Union saw a 12% increase. The overall volume isn’t gone; it’s just being redirected. This situation highlights increased activity from both exporters and regulators. The US, aiming to counter these tactics, has imposed a 40% tariff on certain trans-shipped goods as per its agreement with Vietnam. This rate isn’t arbitrary; it aims not only to match the value added through re-routing but also to discourage the practice entirely.

Economic Effects and Considerations

Several issues will emerge over the next few weeks. First, we need to closely monitor regional trade volumes. If ASEAN countries continue to show significant export increases that exceed their manufacturing capacities, the redirection may be more extensive than currently believed. Second, inventory data from US ports and warehouses could indicate whether American consumers and importers are absorbing these costs, delaying shipments, or shifting to different supply chains. For traders dealing with derivatives linked to regional demand or global freight, this environment suggests a higher likelihood of sudden price changes. For example, Southeast Asian transport indices could face a sudden revaluation if US tariffs start affecting reshipped Chinese goods. This would not only impact shipping rates but also influence equity and commodity contracts affected by trade flows. Moreover, this situation increases the complexity of risk pricing. Rapid regulatory changes, like those seen in the US-Vietnam deal, can spread quickly. Hedging against policy uncertainty must consider more than just likelihood; exposure now heavily depends on second-order effects. Traders must monitor exposure not only in the China-US relationship but also in neighboring economies. We should also anticipate that an increase in compliance checks and origin verification might slow down delivery cycles. This could affect timing assumptions in forward delivery contracts and raise cost estimates for short-term positions. As this trade redirection takes hold, derivatives connected to transportation delays, port capacity, and even regional currencies may respond in different ways. This is a broad area that requires constant attention—daily, even hourly—as tariffs and shipment patterns evolve. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Oil prices fell just over 1% when trading opened on Globex on Sunday evening in the US. This drop came after OPEC+ announced an unexpected rise in production for August. The group plans to increase output by 548,000 barrels per day, up from their earlier commitment of 411,000 bpd. This decision highlights OPEC+’s goal of regaining control in the global energy market and increasing competition with US shale producers. The added supply could help lower tight global inventories, but it also raises concerns about oversupply amid uncertain demand. Despite these worries, OPEC+ remains hopeful about demand levels. In related news, a vessel was attacked in the Red Sea, forcing the crew to abandon ship due to a fire and flooding. The Israeli military stated it will target Yemeni ports and has issued an evacuation warning. Israel confirmed it has struck multiple terrorist targets in Yemen. Following OPEC+’s announcement, futures traders quickly adjusted their positions. The 1% drop at the open shows how rapidly the market reacts to unexpected changes in supply. The production rise—over 100,000 barrels more than originally planned—signals that the group believes the market can handle more output, despite recent signs of weaker consumption. This change doesn’t just shift the balance; it introduces enough uncertainty to disrupt pricing models based on inventory levels and shipping routes. When inventories are low, prices usually rise as buyers compete for the limited barrels available. However, if supply increases faster than demand, futures positioning can shift dramatically. At the same time, unrest in the Red Sea adds a layer of risk. The abandonment of a ship due to fire and flooding is not an isolated event. If vessels change course to avoid danger, transit times will increase, leading to higher time and insurance costs. This is particularly critical for energy logistics—delays or disruptions can cause futures prices to rise, even while the broader outlook leans toward oversupply. Israel’s strikes on Yemeni targets—and their clear intention to target port infrastructure—puts significant focus on shipping continuity. Traders must consider not only how many barrels are being produced daily but also how many can reliably reach the market on time. Hedge strategies may adjust to provide more upside protection. We are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply enthusiasm and geopolitical risks. The timing of the production increase complicates directional trading. Generally, more oil should drive prices down, but real or perceived threats to transport routes can support prices. Looking ahead over the next two weeks, we expect ongoing volatility in energy futures. Short-term strategies should prioritize adaptability over certainty. Options markets may provide clearer exposure, where changes in skew can signal institutional sentiment more effectively than price changes alone. Monitor adjustments in risk pricing, especially if premiums increase for options that are close to the market price. This can indicate market reactions more quickly than waiting for open interest data. Finally, if oversupply does arise, it usually develops slowly, contrary to what news headlines suggest. Inventories must support the idea of oversupply. Until then, we remain sensitive to news and changes in shipping routes. We are actively monitoring not only official OPEC+ announcements but also satellite tracking and shipping rates, as these often reveal signals before official numbers are released.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that new tariffs will begin on August 1. He mentioned that President Trump is finalizing the rates and agreements. Back in April, Trump introduced a base tariff of 10%, with some rates possibly reaching 50%. Many of these increases were delayed until July 9, and Lutnick’s latest update shows an additional three-week delay. Trump has confirmed that some trade deals are already completed. Additionally, on Monday, 12 to 15 letters will be sent to other countries, informing them about the upcoming higher tariffs.

Concrete Timeline Shift

Lutnick’s announcement represents a concrete timeline shift, moving the tariff start date to the beginning of August. This gives market players a bit more time than expected. The earlier delays, which were supposed to start in early July, made traders rethink their pricing models and hedging strategies. This new extension should be treated the same way. The proposed tariffs, ranging from 10% to as high as 50%, are still being worked out. The extra waiting time serves as a chance to reevaluate positions, especially when it comes to cross-border impacts and medium-term yield curves. While immediate volatility might seem low, it probably won’t stay that way, so stay alert. Trump has mentioned that several agreements have been finalized. For those trading contracts in import-sensitive sectors, this suggests some markets may be less affected, while others will face more challenges. The letters being sent to over a dozen countries will officially notify them and are expected to prompt quick reactions, possibly leading to countermeasures and short-term currency shifts and equity volatility.

Dealing in Derivatives

When managing derivatives, we cannot view announcements like these as background noise. Pricing mechanisms reflect not just the current situation but also forecast future decisions. With this three-week extension in place, implied volatility—especially in energy and industrial sectors—may increase as everyone anticipates potential retaliatory actions. Although the exact tariffs and targeted countries are still under discussion, we now have clearer information: we have a start date, letters being sent out, and guidance from Lutnick. This suggests that forward-looking positioning will likely be beneficial. It’s wise to adjust delta exposures before mid-July, especially if we’re net long in the affected areas. Time-based spreads could also offer opportunities for contracts settling before or after August. We recommend aligning expected tariff levels with the entire delivery calendar for Q3. Execution may need to be more efficient in the coming two weeks, as pricing pressure is likely to rise in correlated instruments. Manage risks carefully with gamma-heavy instruments and consider rolling key positions earlier. Expect policy news to directly influence realized volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Trump plans to send 12 to 15 letters about tariffs on Monday, aiming to finalize trade deals or letters with most countries by July 9. He indicated that setting tariff rates is easier than negotiating with over 170 nations, showing a preference for fixed tariffs instead of complicated discussions. As these developments unfold, US representative Bessent warned that tariffs could increase if trade agreements aren’t completed by August 1. Trump shared his thoughts on several issues: he opposed Musk starting a third political party, mentioned potential deals with Netanyahu regarding Iran, and hinted at possible agreements with Hamas within the week. He also planned a visit to Texas after recent flooding and discussed the future of FEMA. Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed that the tariffs will take effect on August 1. Trump reported a positive conversation with Zelenskiy but expressed disappointment in his dealings with Putin. He suggested that hostages might be released soon, highlighting ongoing international engagements and concerns. The original article highlights a surge of political and economic activity focused on unilateral tariff actions. Trump plans to issue 12 to 15 letters about new trade tariffs on Monday. He aims to set trade terms—either through agreements or preliminary letters—with most countries by July 9, showing a preference for quick, simple solutions over lengthy negotiations. This strategy avoids the challenges of reaching agreements among more than 170 different national interests, favoring fixed tariffs instead. Bessent’s warning adds pressure, stating that tariff rates will likely rise if no trade agreements are finalized by August 1. This tactic is meant to prompt other countries to act quickly or face higher duties. Commerce Secretary Lutnick reiterated that the current tariff structure will be enforced starting August 1, regardless of negotiation progress. This sets a clear deadline and raises short-term uncertainty. In addition to trade, Trump also spoke on foreign and domestic issues. He opposed Musk launching a third political party, which may affect future elections. On the foreign policy side, he suggested upcoming negotiations with Netanyahu about Iran and potential progress with Hamas soon. These comments point to behind-the-scenes changes, but depend on outcomes that are still unconfirmed. He also mentioned plans to visit Texas after recent floods and hinted at possible changes in FEMA. Additionally, he described a positive phone call with Zelenskiy but expressed disappointment regarding relations with Putin. He hinted at the potential release of hostages, reinforcing a somewhat chaotic but intentional international strategy. Currently, a deadline-focused approach seems to be taking precedence. Given the circumstances, asset price volatility—especially in currency and commodity contracts—will likely increase as we approach early August. A range of geopolitical statements, which could impact oil supply routes and international finance flows, adds to this volatility. With tariffs set to begin on August 1, we are quickly moving from speculation to action. For traders involved in options and futures related to raw materials or global trade, the next three weeks are crucial. It would be wise to consider July 9 and August 1 as key dates. For instance, open positions in industrial metals, semiconductors, or agricultural products—markets sensitive to global tariff changes—might need reassessment with strategies to guard against swings in implied volatility. Fixed-income positions, particularly in US markets, should also account for potential supply chain disruptions and inflation discussions. Keep an eye on trade partners that could be significantly affected by new duties, especially those connected to Asia-Pacific routes or high-volume manufacturing. As direct communications have already begun with many nations, and given the evolving tone, retaliatory measures may arise without warning. Lastly, the overall economic direction seems to rely less on global consensus and more on executive actions. This means the gap between policy announcements and market impact is narrowing. What is announced on Monday could start affecting prices by Tuesday. Considering this, it may be prudent to shorten exposure windows and use liquidity strategically as market players adjust before the tariff deadline approaches.

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Japan’s recent economic data has shown strong results. In May, household spending rose by 4.7% compared to a year earlier, beating predictions of 1.2% and improving from last year’s -0.1%. The Bank of Japan is carefully watching trends in consumption and wages to assess the economy’s health. Today, Japan will release important wage data. This year, workers have seen significant nominal wage hikes, with companies agreeing to a 5.25% increase. However, rising inflation is affecting real wage growth, which is crucial for spending power. The unexpected rise in household spending in May is not just a one-time event. Compared to the modest forecasts, the robust figures suggest a surge in domestic demand that was not fully anticipated. With spending increasing by 4.7% against a forecast of 1.2%, it seems consumers are either confident enough to dip into their savings or that wage increases, despite inflation, are giving them the means to spend. The previous decrease of -0.1% highlights how sudden this change has been, marking a shift in behavior after a slow period earlier in the year. In this context, the upcoming wage data is especially significant. The agreed nominal pay raise of 5.25% is the largest in decades, driven by government encouragement and strong labor negotiations. However, ongoing inflation—especially in essential items like energy and food—means real wages are crucial for determining spending power. If wage increases do not consistently outpace the rising cost of living, higher consumption may not last long. For those in the market dealing with Japanese assets, it is important to think about how robust spending and squeezed real income could influence expectations for monetary policy. The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring these factors, and any further increase in consumption—especially with signs of real wage growth—could shift expectations regarding interest rates. Most analysis has focused on nominal wage increases, but persistent inflation in services and strong employment figures may influence the Bank’s future guidance. The market could adjust yields in the coming weeks if new wage data shows more resilience than expected. This could affect pricing volatility in rate derivatives or change preferences for short versus long-term investments. Additionally, it’s essential to keep an eye on corporate earnings revisions. These will indicate whether businesses are managing their profit margins amid rising wage costs. If profit margins stay under pressure, volatility in local equity derivatives could reflect not just macro shocks but also weakening profitability expectations. Finally, with Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rising recently, especially in the middle of the curve, there is increased pressure on funding rates that may call for more cautious strategies. In summary, those operating in this area should prepare for multiple scenarios, particularly as forward guidance may remain conditional and local demand data continues to defy expectations.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that President Trump will notify trading partners about reinstating higher tariffs starting August 1, if no agreements are made by April 2. This will be done through formal letters. The US is close to finalizing several trade deals, with big announcements expected before the July 9 deadline when paused tariffs could return. In addition, around 100 smaller countries, many of which have not talked with the US, will receive fixed tariff rates. The original deadline of July 9 has now been extended to August 1 for more negotiations. Trump has found it tough to negotiate with over 170 countries, preferring fixed tariffs instead of lengthy discussions. He describes the strategy of announcing and then delaying tariffs as a smart negotiating tactic. These statements suggest a clear tactic by US leadership: using potential tariff hikes as leverage to push for cooperation or concessions before the deadlines. Bessent’s comments, along with the new August 1 implementation date, highlight a strategic time frame aimed at speeding up bilateral negotiations without entirely dropping them. By moving the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1, the US is not backing down but rather allowing a bit more time for last-minute negotiations. However, the delays shouldn’t be seen as weakness. The formal notification serves as both a diplomatic alert and a legal precursor, giving partner countries and others limited time to adjust, respond, or comply based on their current situations. The fixed tariffs for around 100 countries create a scenario where cooperation is not essential but is rewarded. For those who either can’t or won’t engage in talks, the fixed rates leave no room for negotiation—there’s no reason to delay. We should pay close attention to how interest rates can shift over the next few weeks. The timeline is clear, and pricing around certain options will likely reflect a lower chance of last-minute deals, especially for countries that haven’t started discussions. As we approach the third week of July, trading volumes in long-term hedges may start to decline, particularly where risks are stabilizing. This approach of setting deadlines and firming up from the President isn’t new, but the commitment to enforce tariffs after August confirms that discussions won’t extend beyond that point. Derivatives related to customs exposure or currency fluctuations with secondary partners to the US might see more activity than direct pairs, depending on how quickly negotiations in Geneva gain momentum. Before the July deadline, we should focus more on calendar adjustments and reducing gamma loads as mid-July approaches. We’ve seen this pattern before: initial threats, a pause, and then a decisive action at expiration. Participants need to shift their attention to the decay curves of those linked to stable midpoints instead of expecting that more talks will lead to reversals. They won’t. The strategy is clear: set a timeline, then act. There are no signs of another extension. Those without exposure should stay that way.

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