Turkey’s consumer confidence index rose to 85.7 in February, up from 83.7 the previous month. That is a 2.0-point increase from the prior reading.

Consumer Confidence Shows Modest Improvement

The rise in Turkish consumer confidence from 83.7 to 85.7 is a small but positive sign for the domestic economy. It suggests households feel slightly more optimistic, which could help support local equities in the coming weeks. We see this as a reason to stay cautiously bullish on Turkish assets. This update follows a difficult period, with inflation ending 2025 at around 68%. The central bank’s aggressive rate hikes last year were intended to reduce that pressure. The uptick in confidence may indicate those policies are improving stability without fully weakening consumer demand. For equity traders, this could be supportive for the BIST 100 index, which rallied strongly during 2025 as local investors looked for inflation protection. One way to express this view is through near-term call options on major Turkish ETFs. Another approach is selling out-of-the-money put spreads to collect premium, if this news helps create a short-term floor for the market. For the currency, this single data point is unlikely to change the broader direction in USD/TRY. The lira has continued to depreciate gradually, with the exchange rate moving above 42.00 earlier this month. We do not view this consumer confidence figure as a strong reason to go long the Turkish lira.

Options And Volatility Considerations

Improved sentiment could lead to a small drop in implied volatility, which may make options slightly cheaper in the short term. Even so, Turkish markets remain highly sensitive to inflation readings and central bank decisions. Any derivatives positions should be sized for sharp swings, as this is still a high-risk environment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Rabobank said geopolitical risk is rising, driven by the risk of US–Iran hostilities. Media reports have pointed to a high chance of war. Rabobank said markets are focused on the risk of Iranian retaliation across the region. The note highlighted recent US logistics movements and an Axios headline that put the issue back on oil traders’ radar. It said the risk balance shifted toward a US strike after markets closed on Friday.

Regional Retaliation Scenarios

Rabobank said the amount of equipment moved to the Middle East suggests any action could last for weeks, rather than ending before markets reopen on Monday. It added that possible retaliation scenarios include activity across the region, attacks via terror cells in the West (including Europe), and potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The report said these developments could move both markets and geopolitics. It added that oil and LNG prices would likely spike, and it called for a US plan to limit disruption to energy markets. Energy markets are already pricing in a larger war risk premium. Traders may need to be ready for sudden price shocks. The risk of a US–Iran conflict is now seen as very high, and that could push Brent crude—currently around $96 a barrel—much higher in the coming weeks. This is not just distant speculation; recent logistics suggest events could unfold with little warning. Attention is now centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy supplies. More than 20% of the world’s daily oil supply moves through this narrow waterway, and that share has been broadly steady for years. Any military action that threatens shipping there could quickly cut supply, creating a shock not seen in decades.

Derivatives Market Volatility

For derivatives traders, this points to a likely jump in implied volatility. The OVX, which tracks oil price volatility, has already climbed to 41. A direct conflict could push it above the highs seen during the regional flare-ups in 2025. As a result, buying crude oil call options—or volatility exposure—may become a key way to hedge, or to position for a price spike. The 2022 market reaction to the war in Ukraine shows how fast geopolitical events can reprice energy. Brent rose above $120 a barrel as risk was rapidly re-assessed. A conflict in the Persian Gulf would likely have a more direct and sharper impact on crude. The risk is not limited to oil. LNG prices would likely rise as well. Europe still depends heavily on LNG imports, so any threat to Qatari cargoes moving through Hormuz would directly challenge Europe’s energy security. That is why options activity in natural gas futures could increase as traders prepare for multiple outcomes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/GBP ticked up to around 0.8745–0.8750 in early European trading on Thursday. The Pound slipped after weaker UK data. UK Retail Sales and the preliminary Eurozone GDP release are due on Friday. Signs of a cooler UK labour market and easing inflation have increased expectations of Bank of England rate cuts later this year, after the Bank held rates at 3.75% at its February meeting. UK CPI rose 3.0% year on year in January, down from 3.4% in December, and in line with forecasts.

UK Inflation And Rate Cut Pricing

Core CPI rose 3.1% year on year in January, down from 3.2% previously, and also matched expectations. Interest-rate futures now price in nearly a 90% chance of a March BoE rate cut, up from about 80% before the inflation release, according to Reuters. In the Eurozone, reports about a possible early departure by ECB President Christine Lagarde have been noted as a potential source of EUR volatility. Her term ends in October 2027, and the ECB said no decision has been made. The widening gap between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is now the key driver. With UK inflation falling to 3.0%—its lowest level since March last year—markets are strengthening their view that the BoE could cut rates next month. That would likely keep pressure on Sterling versus the Euro. This view is supported by the latest UK unemployment data from the Office for National Statistics, which ticked up to 4.4%, pointing to a softer labour market. In contrast, recent Eurozone services PMI data showed an unexpected expansion, suggesting the economy may be holding up better. This contrast could support further gains in EUR/GBP.

Proposed Trade Expression

One way to express this view is to buy EUR/GBP call options with strike prices near 0.8800, expiring in late March or April. This gives us the right to benefit if the exchange rate rises, helped by a highly likely BoE rate cut. Risk is defined and limited to the option premium paid. A similar move played out in the second half of 2025, when early signs of UK weakness appeared. As markets priced a more dovish BoE, EUR/GBP rose by nearly 250 pips over two months. The current setup looks similar and suggests the trend may have more room to run. Speculation about Lagarde’s potential early departure is a secondary factor that could add volatility. Even if it remains only a rumour, it makes long option positions more appealing than futures. Options can capture upside from the rate story while offering protection against sudden, unrelated Euro shocks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/JPY rose for a second day on Thursday as the yen weakened. Prices traded near the top of the weekly range. The pair stayed below the mid-209.00s after bouncing from 207.30–207.25, a near two-month low. The yen eased as investors worried about Japan’s fiscal position and slower GDP growth. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to announce new measures after a landslide election win earlier this month. That has increased expectations for more stimulus.

Yen Weakness And Fiscal Concerns

The IMF warned that cutting the consumption tax could shrink fiscal room and increase debt risks. This reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven and supported GBP/JPY. Even so, markets still expect the BoJ to keep tightening policy. In the UK, markets are increasingly pricing in a BoE rate cut as early as March. This follows a weak jobs report and UK inflation falling to its lowest level in nearly a year. These opposite policy expectations could limit further GBP/JPY gains. Focus now shifts to Japan’s National CPI release on Friday and the flash global PMIs. From a technical view, more downside would likely require a sustained break below the 100-day simple moving average. We are now seeing the results of the policy gap we flagged back in 2025. The Bank of England started its easing cycle last year, while the Bank of Japan delivered modest tightening. This clash has kept GBP/JPY volatile and has capped the stronger upside momentum seen earlier.

Options Volatility And Key Levels

For Sterling, the BoE’s 2025 rate cuts appear largely priced in. Recent data also shows some stabilization. UK inflation is now close to the Bank’s target, with the latest reading at 2.1%. The latest services PMI was also firm at 54.3. This supports the view that the BoE may hold rates steady for now, which could limit further downside in the pound. For the yen, sentiment remains weak as markets debate the impact of last year’s fiscal stimulus. Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% last quarter. This highlights ongoing challenges and makes it harder for the Bank of Japan to justify more rate hikes. That hesitation is keeping pressure on JPY. With this in mind, implied volatility in GBP/JPY options is worth watching for derivatives traders. If the BoE stays on hold and the BoJ remains cautious, the pair may trade in a range in the short term. Still, it could react sharply to policy surprises. A strategy like a long straddle could position for a larger move ahead of upcoming inflation data in both countries. Key technical levels also matter. The pair has failed to hold above 200.00 several times this year. A break below support near 197.50 could point to renewed bearish momentum. In that case, put options may look more attractive as a hedge or a speculative trade. The market is still waiting for a clear catalyst, which could come from the next round of central bank commentary. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) rose for a second straight session and traded near $78.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. Demand for safe-haven assets increased as tensions between the US and Iran grew. US-Iran talks are still unresolved, even as Tehran reported a “general agreement” on a framework for a possible nuclear deal. US officials said Iran has not met US red lines, and the US continues to keep military action on the table.

Geopolitical Risk Supports Safe Haven Demand

Ukraine and Russia ended two days of peace talks in Geneva without progress, as the four-year war continued. The fighting included strikes on energy infrastructure and further advances on the battlefield. Silver’s gains in US dollars may be capped by a stronger US Dollar after hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Higher US yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and can also weaken demand from buyers outside the US. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting revived concerns about possible rate hikes if inflation stays high. Most policymakers supported keeping rates steady, a few favored a cut, and traders still expected two 25 basis point cuts before year-end. Silver is often used as a store of value and a diversification tool. Investors can buy it as bullion or through exchange-traded funds. Prices can also move due to industrial demand (especially electronics and solar), mining supply and recycling, and shifts in gold prices and the gold/silver ratio.

Market Forces In Conflict

Silver is being pulled in two directions right now. Tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are driving safe-haven buying and pushing prices toward multi-year highs. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on inflation is lifting the dollar and limiting how far silver can rise. As US-Iran tensions increase, Brent crude futures jumped above $110 a barrel this week, the first time since the supply shocks in late 2024. This kind of instability suggests that any direct conflict could send silver sharply higher from the current $78 level. Traders may consider buying out-of-the-money call options to benefit from a sudden spike while keeping downside risk limited. However, the strong dollar remains a major headwind, especially after last week’s Core PCE inflation data for January 2026 came in at a stubborn 3.1%. This supports the Fed’s “higher for longer” view, which could push Treasury yields up and pull silver down from current levels. Buying put options or using collars may help protect gains if Fed policy starts to outweigh war-related fears. These mixed signals have pushed implied volatility in silver options to the highest levels in more than a year. The CBOE’s Silver Volatility Index (VXSLV) is now above 45, which suggests the market expects big price swings in the coming weeks. With volatility this high, strategies like straddles or strangles may appeal to traders who want to profit from a large move in either direction. It is also worth watching the Gold/Silver ratio, which has recently narrowed to about 65:1, well below the 20-year average near 75:1. This suggests silver may be expensive relative to gold, a shift from most of 2025. One reason could be strong industrial demand: global solar panel installations in 2025 reportedly rose another 20%, drawing more physical supply out of the market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices fell in the Philippines on Thursday, FXStreet data showed. Gold was priced at PHP 9,276.30 per gram, down from PHP 9,295.22 on Wednesday. Gold slipped to PHP 108,198.50 per tola from PHP 108,417.60 a day earlier. Other listed prices were PHP 92,759.34 for 10 grams and PHP 288,523.60 per troy ounce.

Local Pricing Method

FXStreet converts global gold prices into PHP using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, so local prices may vary. Central banks are the biggest holders of gold. In 2022, they bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion, according to the World Gold Council. This was the highest yearly total since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets like stocks. Prices can also react to geopolitics, recession worries, interest rates, and dollar strength, since gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). This small drop to about PHP 9,276 per gram is likely short-term noise. The broader forces that support gold—such as its role as a hedge against currency weakness—are still in place. Focus on the bigger trends that may drive prices in the coming weeks.

Market Outlook Drivers

Central banks kept buying through 2025, adding more than 800 tonnes to global reserves as they diversified away from the US Dollar. This steady demand, especially from developing countries, helps support gold prices. It also signals that large institutions see long-term value, which may limit the risk of sharp declines. The US Federal Reserve’s dovish shift late last year has weighed on the dollar, and that trend may continue. With markets expecting at least one rate cut before July, conditions are improving for non-yielding assets like gold. A weaker dollar also tends to make gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which can lift demand. The strong rallies in 2024 showed how fast gold can react when expectations for monetary policy change. Gold is highly sensitive to signals of lower interest rates. Traders may want to consider strategies that can benefit from potential upside volatility in the weeks ahead. Gold’s tendency to move opposite to risk assets is another key point to watch. After a strong final quarter of 2025, when the S&P 500 rose more than 9%, any pullback in stocks could spark a move into safe-haven assets. That could push more money into gold and support higher prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Gold traded at AED 586.92 per gram, down from AED 588.60 on Wednesday. The price per tola dropped to AED 6,846.01, from AED 6,865.30 the day before. Other listed rates were AED 5,869.45 for 10 grams and AED 18,254.09 per troy ounce.

How Local Gold Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/AED exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication, but local market rates may differ slightly. Gold has long been used as a store of value and a form of money. It is also widely used in jewellery. Many investors buy gold during times of market stress, high inflation, or currency weakness. Central banks hold the largest gold reserves and may buy gold to diversify their assets. According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total on record. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. It can also move differently from risk assets, such as stocks. Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical events, recession worries, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar, since gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD).

Market Outlook And Trading Considerations

Gold prices are slightly lower today, February 19, 2026. This looks like mild profit-taking, not a major shift in the broader trend. For traders, the pullback may offer a short-term entry point if they expect the uptrend to resume. This move should be seen in the context of the wider economic picture. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts through 2025 have been a key reason gold has stayed strong. With the Fed Funds rate now at 3.50%, lower rates make bonds less attractive compared with gold, which does not pay interest. This policy has also kept the US Dollar Index relatively weak, hovering near 98, which has historically supported gold. Inflation remains important. While inflation has eased, the latest CPI reading for January 2026 was still high at 2.8%, which keeps gold appealing as a hedge. Central banks also continued buying in 2025. World Gold Council data shows they added more than 1,050 tonnes to reserves last year. This steady institutional demand helps support prices. With these supportive factors in place, derivative traders may look at strategies that profit from a move higher in the coming weeks. One option is to buy call options with April or May expiries to benefit if the uptrend continues. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money put options to earn premium, based on the view that strong demand will limit any major downside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/JPY rose to around 182.90 in early European trading on Thursday. The move came as markets priced in the ECB keeping its benchmark rate at 2.0% for the rest of this year, with possible increases next year. Japan’s National CPI is due on Friday. Annual inflation eased to 2.1% in December 2025, the lowest level since March 2022. A stronger CPI print could lift expectations for an earlier BoJ rate hike.

Technical Outlook On The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is still trading above the rising 100-day EMA, which keeps the medium-term trend positive. The RSI is at 47.83 and would signal improving momentum if it moves above 50. Bollinger Bands are tightening, which points to lower volatility. Price is below the midline but above the lower band. Resistance sits at 183.35 and support is at 180.75. A daily close above 183.35 could open the way to 186.00, while a break below 180.75 may expose 180.68. The Yen is driven by Japan’s economic performance, BoJ policy, yield spreads versus US bonds, and overall risk sentiment. The BoJ has intervened in markets at times. Ultra-loose policy from 2013 to 2024 weakened the Yen, while a gradual policy unwind since 2024 has offered some support. With EUR/JPY near 182.90, our near-term focus is the gap between central bank expectations. The market is pricing an ECB rate of 2.0% through the year, which supports the Euro. That view was reinforced last week when Eurozone HICP inflation for January came in a touch sticky at 2.4%, which reduced hopes for early rate cuts. The main event risk is Japan’s National CPI report, due tomorrow. After inflation cooled to 2.1% in December 2025, consensus expects a small rebound to 2.2% for January. A much higher reading would likely fuel talk that the Bank of Japan could speed up policy normalization. That would support the Yen and could push this pair lower.

Options Strategy Considerations

For a bullish setup, consider buying call options with strikes above the 183.35 resistance level, such as 183.50 or 184.00. If Japanese CPI is soft and price breaks above this barrier, these calls would provide leveraged exposure to a potential move toward the 186.00 target. Today’s low volatility (shown by tighter Bollinger Bands) also makes these options relatively cheaper. To hedge against, or potentially profit from, an upside surprise in Japanese inflation, consider buying put options. Our trigger would be a break below the key 100-day EMA at 180.75, so puts with a strike around 180.50 could fit. In 2024 and 2025, the JPY often rallied sharply when the BoJ even hinted at tightening, so it is important to plan for downside risk. Because tomorrow’s release could drive a large move, a volatility strategy may also make sense. One approach is a long straddle: buy both a call and a put with the same strike price and expiration. This benefits from a big move in either direction and can work well when volatility is low ahead of a major catalyst. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. Gold was priced at PKR 44,813.80 per gram, down from PKR 44,948.43 on Wednesday. The price per tola fell to PKR 522,715.80 from PKR 524,269.60 the previous day. Other listed prices were PKR 448,151.10 for 10 grams and PKR 1,393,866.00 per troy ounce.

How Local Gold Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet calculates local gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/PKR exchange rate and local units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, so local prices may vary slightly. Central banks hold more gold than any other group. According to the World Gold Council, they added 1,136 tonnes (worth about $70 billion) in 2022. This was the largest yearly total since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets like stocks. Key drivers include geopolitical tension, recession concerns, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar, since gold is priced in USD (XAU/USD). Local prices are only slightly lower, but the bigger story for derivatives depends on global forces. Gold’s inverse link with the US Dollar matters most. With the Dollar Index (DXY) down nearly 4% since last autumn to around 101.5, gold has a stronger base of support. This is an important trend to watch in the weeks ahead.

Interest Rates And Derivatives Outlook

Interest rate expectations are the main driver of gold. The sharp rate hikes of 2023 and 2024 are now in the past. Markets are pricing in possible US Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. The cooler-than-expected January 2026 inflation reading of 2.8% supports that view, and it often helps non-yielding assets like gold. Steady demand from central banks also matters. After record buying in 2022, central banks added another 1,050 tonnes to reserves through 2025. This ongoing official buying helps support prices and can limit how far gold falls. Gold’s safe-haven role is becoming important again. After a strong run for much of last year, stock markets are showing more volatility, and company guidance for the next quarter is mixed. This uncertainty may lead some traders to add gold derivatives as a hedge. Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes also continue to support gold. When these risks rise, investors often move to safer assets. Because of this, sharp price drops may offer chances to position for higher volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Dear Client,

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