AUD/USD hovers near 0.7075 and eyes a move above 0.7150 as traders await the FOMC minutes and jobs data
AUD/USD traded in a tight range near 0.7075 during Wednesday’s European session. Traders are waiting for the FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT and Australia’s January jobs report on Thursday.
Ahead of the minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2% to around 97.30. Markets will study the minutes for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
Amid geopolitical and macro headlines, investors may overlook earnings as key drivers of equity markets this week
This week brings 451 earnings reports over three sessions: 116 on Tuesday, 138 on Wednesday, and 160 on Thursday. That many updates in a short time can quickly change sector trends and overall market sentiment.
HSBC is a key read on credit conditions through bank results and management commentary. Walmart is a gauge of consumer demand, margins, and store traffic. Alibaba is often used as a proxy for China, with earnings expected to fall sharply year over year.
Key Technical Levels And Near Term Setups
HSBC is in a short-term downtrend after breaking below its 6 February low. Pre-market is near $88, around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. $88.18 is the first resistance level, and the 1H Stochastic RSI is overbought. Walmart is expected to open near $128.90, back inside its consolidation range. Support is at $126.88, the pivot is $129.40, and the range high is $131.76. The key question is whether price can hold above $129.40 and avoid slipping back toward $126.88. Alibaba is still in a short-term downtrend. It has support near $152.80 at the 78.6% retracement. If $152.80 breaks, the next level is near $145 at the 100% retracement. Resistance sits at $157–$160. 1H momentum is deeply oversold, with price in the mid-$150s.How Last Years Earnings Week Can Inform Positioning
A heavy wave of earnings can move markets even when geopolitics seems like the main driver. In the dense earnings week of February 2025, several core assumptions were challenged across major sectors. Those lessons still matter for positioning in the weeks ahead. Last year, HSBC’s results offered an early warning on global financial health. Its Q4 2024 report, released in mid-February 2025, showed an 80% drop in pre-tax profit, mainly due to a large write-down on its stake in a Chinese bank. This is a reminder that financials can flag stress in credit conditions. If guidance from major banks turns cautious again, traders may consider protective puts on banking ETFs to hedge against unexpected weakness in the economy’s core. During that same period, Walmart helped measure consumer strength. It beat earnings expectations but gave cautious guidance for the year. This matched January 2025 data showing retail sales had stalled, suggesting consumers were becoming more selective. Today, traders can use options to express a view on consumer discretionary versus consumer staples ETFs, because signs of slowing growth often benefit necessities over non-essentials. Alibaba provided a read on China. Its February 2025 report showed its slowest quarterly revenue growth on record, reflecting broader economic headwinds. That weakness also showed up in China’s official manufacturing PMI, which stayed below 50 (contraction) for a fourth straight month in January 2025. Looking ahead, this supports using straddles or strangles on China-focused ETFs to prepare for a larger move, since any surprise in guidance could trigger a fast repricing. The core lesson from last year is that earnings season can create volatility even when markets look calm. With the VIX near multi-year lows around 14, option premiums are relatively cheap. This may be a good time to add defensive hedges, such as put spreads on major indices, in case upbeat economic expectations prove wrong. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Turner says EUR/USD is rangebound as reports hint Lagarde may leave early, with successors watched closely
A Financial Times report says ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down before her term ends in October 2027. It links the idea to a desire to confirm the next ECB president before the French presidential election next April.
The report says this timeline could let Emmanuel Macron play a role in the process. Possible successors include Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and Germany’s Joachim Nagel.
Expected Euro Dollar Trading Range
With holidays across Asia for the rest of the week and few economic releases today, EUR/USD is likely to trade in a tight range. The expected intraday band is 1.1800 to 1.1850. Markets are also watching which foreign central banks will join the ECB’s expanded EUREP facility. This is expected to unfold over the next three to four months. Talk from 2025 about an early Lagarde exit is now a key theme for the euro. With the French presidential election a little over a year away, the question of who leads the ECB next is no longer far off. That is adding a quiet layer of uncertainty to EUR/USD. A direct way to trade this is through options, because the main risk is not direction but the chance of a sharp move. EUR/USD three-month implied volatility has risen from 5.5% last November to above 7.2% this week. Traders may want to buy volatility using structures such as straddles, which can profit whether the euro rises or falls.Succession Risk And Volatility Strategy
The succession debate sets candidates like Germany’s Joachim Nagel against Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, and they are seen as having different policy views. The flash estimate for Eurozone inflation in January 2026 was a sticky 2.8%, which makes the choice between a hawk and a dove more important. This split is the kind of catalyst that could push EUR/USD out of its recent tight ranges. Markets have seen before how quickly pricing can shift after central bank changes, as in 2022. Over the next few weeks, buying options with a three-to-six-month expiry may be a sensible way to position for this political risk. It gives the story time to develop while reducing exposure to short-term noise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UK DCLG house prices rose 2.4% year on year in December, beating the 1.8% forecast
UK house prices, measured by the DCLG House Price Index, rose 2.4% year on year in December. This was higher than the 1.8% forecast.
The result was 0.6 percentage points above expectations. It shows that annual house price growth was faster than analysts predicted for that month.
Implications For Monetary Policy
Stronger-than-expected UK house price growth in December 2025 suggests the economy has more momentum than expected. This resilience also points to inflation pressures that the Bank of England cannot ignore. As a result, we should reassess how soon interest rate cuts may arrive. This data can support the British Pound, because “higher rates for longer” often strengthens a currency. We may consider long GBP positions against currencies where central banks are more likely to cut rates, such as the Euro or US Dollar. Recent trading also shows GBP/USD has found support around 1.2750 after similar strong data releases. For interest rate traders, this housing figure lowers the chances of an early Bank of England rate cut. In SONIA futures, the market is already removing the expectation of a full cut by the summer meeting. We could position for this to continue by anticipating rates stay at, or close to, the current 5.25% level through the first half of the year. The housing data is also positive for UK-focused stocks, especially homebuilders and banks. Stocks like Taylor Wimpey and Lloyds Banking Group reacted positively to the January 2026 wage growth data, which came in strong at 4.5%. We could use call options on these names to look for more upside ahead of earnings. This is not a one-off signal. The January 2026 inflation reading showed CPI is still high at 3.1%, well above the 2% target.Market Risks And Positioning
When we combine firm house prices, strong wages, and sticky inflation, the case for the Bank of England to stay hawkish becomes stronger. In this setup, bets on near-term rate cuts look increasingly risky. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Data show XAG/USD rising to $75.90 per ounce, up 3.56% from $73.29
Silver rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. It traded at $75.90 per troy ounce, up 3.56% from $73.29 on Tuesday.
Since the start of the year, silver is up 6.78%. The price was $2.44 per gram.
Gold Silver Ratio Update
The gold/silver ratio was 64.81 on Wednesday, down from 66.56 on Tuesday. This ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold. Silver is a precious metal. Many investors use it as a store of value and as a way to exchange value. You can buy it as coins or bars, or trade it through products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track market prices. Silver prices can move for many reasons. Key factors include geopolitical events, recession fears, interest rates, and shifts in the US dollar. Silver is priced in dollars, so a stronger or weaker dollar can quickly change the price. Supply also matters. Mining output, recycling activity, and overall investor and industrial demand can all push prices up or down. Industrial demand is especially important. Silver is widely used in electronics and solar energy because it conducts electricity extremely well—better than copper and gold. Demand trends in the US, China, and India can shift the outlook, including jewellery demand in India.Market Strategy Outlook
Silver shows strong momentum. Today’s move to $75.90 lifts year-to-date gains above 6.7%. This price action suggests pullbacks may be buying opportunities, not a sign of a full reversal. The market still looks supported by the bullish base built late last year. A major driver is steady industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic (solar) sector. Reports throughout 2025 showed silver use in solar panel production reached another record, topping 160 million ounces worldwide. This level of demand creates a stronger price floor than the market had a decade ago. Another factor is the outlook for easier monetary policy from major central banks. Markets have been pricing in potential rate cuts later this year after comments from the Federal Reserve’s final meetings in 2025. A weaker US dollar also supports silver, and the dollar is already down about 2% since January. The drop in the gold/silver ratio to 64.81 is another important signal. It suggests silver is outperforming gold, continuing a trend seen since the ratio peaked above 80 in mid-2025. In the past, sharp declines in this ratio have often occurred during silver’s strongest rallies. Traders may view this as silver moving back toward its longer-term relationship with gold. Given this backdrop, derivatives traders may consider bullish setups, such as buying call options. With spot at $75.90, March and April contracts with $80 or even $85 strike prices could offer leverage to further upside. Implied volatility may also rise, as traders price in bigger swings in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank says Japan’s investments support the dollar as EUR/USD trades in a 1.18–1.19 range ahead of Fed minutes
EUR/USD has stayed in a tight 1.18 to 1.19 range. Recent US and eurozone data did not move the market much. Attention is now shifting to the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting.
The US and Japan have agreed on an initial investment of about USD 36 billion. This is the first tranche of a planned USD 550 billion investment commitment over the next three years, running until the end of President Trump’s term.
Japan Investment Commitment And Dollar Implications
The commitment suggests Japan would almost double its direct investment per year compared with 2024. It is still uncertain whether the full amount will be delivered as planned. If the investment flows reach the levels in the agreement, they should support the US Dollar. However, the article notes that the overall impact on the Dollar is still unclear. The report says it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Looking back to last year, there was a lot of market talk about large Japanese investments into the US. Data from the final quarter of 2025 later confirmed a clear rise in these flows. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Japanese foreign direct investment rose by more than 20% versus the same period in 2024. While the full $550 billion has not yet appeared, the steady demand for dollars has provided solid underlying support for the currency.Dollar Strength And Rate Expectations
This pressure was one of the main reasons EUR/USD finally broke below the stubborn 1.18 level that held through much of late 2025. Since then, the pair has drifted toward 1.15, as Japanese capital flows created steady demand for the US dollar. The initial $36 billion tranche also acted as a strong signal to markets, lifting sentiment and rewarding dollar bulls. As of today, February 18th, 2026, the focus has widened to include sticky US inflation. Last week’s January Consumer Price Index came in at 3.3%, above consensus forecasts. This has pushed markets to rethink how soon—and how much—the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Expectations for higher rates for longer are adding to the dollar’s strength. For derivative traders, this backdrop suggests that selling out-of-the-money EUR/USD call options to collect premium may still make sense, because a large rally looks unlikely. Traders may also consider positioning for more dollar strength against the yen using instruments like USD/JPY call options, which reflect both the investment-flow story and interest-rate differences. With a clear trend in place, options can help define risk while keeping a bullish dollar view over the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.ING’s commodities team says gold rebounded above $4,900/oz; earlier dips amid a strong dollar and risk-off sentiment were corrective
Gold climbed back above $4,900/oz after two days of losses, as buyers stepped in to buy the dip. The earlier fall followed a stronger US dollar and a broader shift toward risk-off trading.
Moves were larger than usual because liquidity was thin during Asian hours. Many markets were shut for the Lunar New Year, which made gold more sensitive to macro news and currency swings.
Gold Rebound Driven By Dip Buying
In the short term, trading is still closely linked to the US dollar and overall risk appetite. The recent drop is being viewed as a correction, and Asian liquidity is expected to return to normal. With macro uncertainty still high, support levels should improve. Any further dips may attract fresh buying. The article was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. We see the latest fall in gold as a corrective move, not the start of a new downtrend. The bounce above $4,900/oz was driven by dip buyers, after thin holiday trading in Asia amplified the initial decline. With fundamentals still strong, the pullback may offer an opportunity.Derivative Strategies For The Coming Weeks
Ongoing macro uncertainty supports this view. The latest January 2026 Consumer Price Index reading came in slightly sticky at 3.1%. As a result, markets have pushed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut back to at least the second quarter. This kind of uncertainty often supports gold. It also suggests the dollar strength that pressured gold may not last. This setup is similar to what we saw in Q3 2025. A jump in the dollar index triggered a sharp drop in gold, but buyers quickly stepped in as global growth concerns returned. That dip became a strong entry point before gold rallied into year-end. Over the next few weeks, derivatives traders could consider buying April 2026 call options with a strike near $5,000 to benefit from a potential recovery. Another approach is to sell cash-secured puts with a strike near the recent lows around $4,850. This lets traders collect premium while setting a lower price at which they may be willing to buy the underlying asset if volatility returns. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.South Africa’s monthly consumer price index held steady at 0.2% in January compared with the prior month
South Africa’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month on month in January. This matched December’s 0.2% increase.
In other words, prices grew at the same pace as the month before. The CPI month-on-month rate was unchanged from December to January.
Implications For Monetary Policy
With January inflation steady at 0.2% month on month, near-term pressure on the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has eased. This makes a surprise interest rate hike at the March meeting less likely. Markets are already leaning toward a hold. Annual inflation is now 5.1%. That keeps it in the top half of the SARB’s 3–6% target band. This is a clear improvement compared with the choppy readings seen through 2025, when volatile energy prices pushed inflation around. The latest data supports the case for the SARB to keep the repo rate at 8.25% while it watches the trend. For options traders, this could mean lower implied volatility in the weeks ahead for USD/ZAR and the JSE Top 40. The South African Volatility Index (SAVI) has already dropped to 17.5, its lowest level since Q3 2025. In a calmer, range-bound market, strategies that benefit from sideways movement—such as selling strangles on ALSI futures—can look more attractive. The rand may also steady. South Africa’s relatively high interest rates still support carry trades. Foreign holdings of South African government bonds rose by more than R5 billion in January 2026, the first meaningful inflow in four months. That backdrop suggests traders may look to express a range-trading view in ZAR using currency futures, with USD/ZAR likely to stay between 18.50 and 19.20. In rates markets, the front end of the yield curve should stay well anchored. Forward Rate Agreements now imply only about a 10% chance of a rate hike by mid-year, down sharply from around 40% in late 2025. With that shift, receiving fixed on short-term interest rate swaps may be a sensible near-term position.Market Positioning And Rates Outlook
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.South Africa’s annual CPI eased to 3.5% from 3.6% in January, signalling a slight drop in inflation
South Africa’s consumer price index rose 3.5% year on year in January. This was down from 3.6% in the previous reading.
With inflation now at 3.5%—near the bottom of the South African Reserve Bank’s 3–6% target band—the case for an interest rate cut is getting stronger. The economy is also showing signs of strain. The World Bank recently cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to just 1.2%. In our view, this low inflation reading gives the central bank more room to support growth.
This shift will likely put downward pressure on the rand in the coming weeks. If investors expect lower rates, the currency becomes less attractive to foreign buyers—especially while US rates stay relatively high. We expect traders to position for a weaker rand by buying USD/ZAR call options, aiming for a move back toward R19.20, last seen in Q4 2025.
For the local stock market, the data is a positive signal. After a difficult 2025, when high borrowing costs hurt company earnings, lower rates would be a relief. Consumer-focused stocks and banks—both large parts of the FTSE/JSE Top 40—would likely benefit most. We expect more buying of ALSI call options as traders look to capture this possible upside.
Because this inflation print removes a major local uncertainty, short-term implied volatility could fall. That may create an opportunity to sell options on the ZAR or the ALSI and collect premium, based on the view that markets may trade more steadily ahead of the next SARB policy meeting in March. That said, traders should stay cautious: the rand often reacts strongly to global risk sentiment, which can easily outweigh local news.
AUD/USD retreats ahead of FOMC minutes and Australian jobs data, failing to build on Thursday’s rebound
AUD/USD could not extend Thursday’s bounce from 0.7030–0.7025 (a one-week low) and came under fresh selling on Friday. In early European trading, it held just above the mid-0.7000s, down 0.25%, as the US dollar firmed slightly.
US dollar gains stayed limited because markets still expect a dovish Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that several rate cuts could still happen this year if inflation moves back toward the 2% target. His comments followed softer US consumer inflation data released last Friday.
