Forecasts were met as France’s EU-harmonised monthly CPI fell 0.4% in January
France’s EU-harmonised Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell **0.4% month-on-month (MoM)** in January. This matched the forecast of **-0.4%**.
The January inflation print in France came in exactly as expected at **-0.4% MoM**. It supports the disinflation trend we have been tracking across Europe. This result was not a surprise, but it strengthens the view that price pressures are fading quickly. It also fits with recent data showing Eurozone inflation fell to **1.1%** in the latest annual reading, well below the central bank’s target.
TFI International reported $1.91bn in Q4 revenue, down 7.8% year on year, as EPS slipped to $1.09
TFI International Inc. reported revenue of $1.91 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, down 7.8% year over year. EPS was $1.09, compared with $1.19 a year earlier.
Revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 billion, a surprise of -0.48%. EPS beat the consensus of $0.85, an EPS surprise of +27.93%.
Adjusted operating ratio figures were 92.3% versus 92.7% estimated, 93.2% for Truckload versus 92.8% estimated, and 89.9% for Less-Than-Truckload versus 92.9% estimated. Canadian LTL adjusted operating ratio was 81.7% versus 82.8% estimated, and Canadian LTL revenue per hundredweight (excluding fuel) was $11.01 versus $11.11 estimated.
Canadian LTL tonnage totaled 563.00 KTons versus 548.86 KTons estimated, while U.S. LTL tonnage was 756.00 KTons versus 739.88 KTons estimated. Revenue before fuel surcharge was $1.68 billion versus $1.68 billion estimated, down 8.1% year over year, and fuel surcharge was $234.33 million versus $239.95 million estimated, down 6.4%.
Truckload revenue was $674.18 million versus $753.23 million estimated, down 2.7% year over year. Less-than-truckload revenue was $660.52 million versus $668.29 million estimated, down 10.4%, and Logistics revenue was $358.1 million versus $376.26 million estimated, down 12.7%.
The market is reacting to a mixed report for the end of 2025. Revenue fell, but earnings came in far above expectations. The nearly 28% earnings surprise appears to be driven mainly by strong cost control, not higher sales. That mix can create uncertainty, which is often important for options traders.
The key details are in operations, especially in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment. LTL’s adjusted operating ratio came in at 89.9%, much better than the 92.9% analysts expected. That points to strong efficiency. LTL tonnage also came in above forecasts. Together, these results suggest TFI is handling a tough freight market better than many peers.
Recent industry data adds some cautious optimism that the freight market may be near a bottom. The Cass Freight Index for January 2026 showed its first month-to-month increase in several months, which may signal stabilizing shipping volumes. This lines up with TFI’s solid tonnage results and could mean the revenue weakness seen in 2025 may not get much worse.
With strong earnings but weaker revenue, traders may look at bullish strategies that still manage risk. Buying March or April 2026 call options could offer upside if investors focus on the company’s improved profitability and efficiency.
Still, revenue declined in every segment, which remains a major headwind and reflects broader economic softness. A more conservative choice could be a bull call spread. It lowers the upfront cost and limits losses if the stock does not rally. This approach balances the positive earnings story with the reality of shrinking sales.
Transport stocks have often rallied quickly when investors see early signs of a freight recovery, like the move in early 2024 after a long downturn. With the U.S. Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 improving to 49.8, just below expansion, some may argue the worst is near or already past. Based on that view, a measured bullish position that looks for improvement over the next several weeks could make sense.
Following the UK CPI release, sterling edges higher, keeping EUR/GBP below 0.8750 near 0.8735 in European trading
EUR/GBP remained below 0.8750, trading near 0.8735 in early European hours on Wednesday. The Pound edged higher after the UK CPI inflation report. Focus now shifts to UK January Retail Sales and the Eurozone flash PMI on Friday.
Data from the UK Office for National Statistics showed headline CPI rose 3.0% year on year in January, down from 3.4% in December. This matched forecasts. Core CPI rose 3.1% year on year versus 3.2% previously, also in line with expectations.
Uk Cpi Details
Monthly UK CPI fell by -0.5% in January after a 0.4% rise in December. This matched the expected -0.5%, and the Pound firmed shortly after the release. For the euro, markets expect the European Central Bank to keep its benchmark rate unchanged through 2026, with possible hikes next year. Friday’s preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone and Germany could help shape the next move in EUR/GBP. With UK inflation easing to 3.0%, the Pound Sterling is finding some support against the Euro. This extends the disinflation trend seen through most of 2025, when the headline rate dropped from above 4%. With EUR/GBP holding below 0.8750, the market is weighing whether this dip is brief or the start of a new downtrend. For derivatives traders, this uncertainty may favor volatility-based approaches rather than a pure directional view. One-month implied volatility for EUR/GBP is around 5.8%, suggesting traders expect larger swings around key data releases. Strategies such as buying straddles or strangles may help capture a sharp move after Friday’s UK retail sales and Eurozone PMI releases.Policy Divergence Outlook
The main theme remains policy divergence between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The ECB appears comfortable holding rates steady for the rest of 2026, while the softer UK inflation print gives the BoE more flexibility. This echoes early 2024, when investors repeatedly repriced BoE rate-cut expectations as each new data point arrived. Friday’s data may provide the next catalyst for the pair. Stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI figures could push EUR/GBP back toward resistance near 0.8800. In contrast, weak UK retail sales could reinforce concerns about underlying growth and send the cross lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Sterling fluctuates near 1.3560 against the dollar in Europe after UK January CPI cools as expected
Pound Sterling saw sharp swings near 1.3560 against the US Dollar during European trading on Wednesday, after the UK released its January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Office for National Statistics said inflation cooled, in line with expectations.
Headline inflation fell to 3.0% year on year, down from 3.4% in December. Core CPI rose 3.1% year on year, slightly lower than 3.2%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation fell 0.5% after rising 0.4% in December.
Uk Inflation And Boe Outlook
Earlier this month, the Bank of England said it expects price pressures to ease to around 3% in Q1 2026 and move closer to 2% in Q2. The softer CPI report has increased expectations that the BoE could take a more dovish tone at its March meeting. Sterling’s next moves may depend on UK retail sales for January and the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for February, both due on Friday. In the US, the Dollar Index was up 0.12% near 97.22 ahead of the FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT. Preliminary US Q4 GDP is also due on Friday. The initial reaction shows clear uncertainty in the Pound, which can create opportunities for derivatives traders. Volatility around 1.3560 suggests that short-term strategies designed to benefit from large swings, such as buying straddles, may be attractive. Traders should be ready for choppy trading as the market digests the inflation news. We view the cooler inflation data as support for the idea that the Bank of England may face pressure to cut interest rates by Q2. This stands out because inflation stayed above 4% for much of 2025, based on the ONS back-dated figures. As a medium-term view, positioning for further Pound weakness—through put options or by selling GBP futures—may make sense. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is holding up ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, reflecting a stronger economic backdrop. The US economy showed resilience through 2025, with Q3 GDP growing at an annualized 2.9%. That contrasts with weaker growth in the UK. This policy gap—BoE turning more dovish while the Fed holds steady—often supports the dollar against the pound.Gbp Usd Bearish Case
This widening difference in central bank outlooks points to a weaker GBP/USD in the coming weeks. Bearish positions may be worth considering, such as buying put options on the pair to limit risk. Support levels below 1.3500 could come into focus if upcoming US data strengthens the case for a firmer dollar. Friday’s data releases are the next major catalysts and could lift volatility again. Weak UK retail sales would raise concerns about the consumer and strengthen the argument for a BoE rate cut. Strong US preliminary Q4 GDP would reinforce the dollar’s edge. That makes this week’s data important for confirming a bearish view on the Pound. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Dovish RBNZ pushes NZD/USD below 0.6000 to a two-week low as markets await FOMC minutes
NZD/USD dropped to a near two-week low and slipped below 0.6000 in early European trading on Tuesday. The move followed heavy selling after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signalled a more dovish policy outlook.
The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% and kept an accommodative tone. It said inflation should return to target over the next year. Markets pushed back expectations for the next rate hike to late 2026, which pressured the New Zealand Dollar.
Rbnz Dovish Shift Weighs On Kiwi
A small uptick in the US Dollar added to the downside. However, gains for the greenback were limited because traders still expect more US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets were also cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes release. The pair broke below support from a one-week trading range and stayed under the 200-hour Simple Moving Average. The MACD remained below its Signal line, with both below zero and a widening negative histogram. The RSI was at 31, near oversold, with 30 as the next level to watch. The RBNZ targets CPI inflation between 1% and 3% and maximum sustainable employment. It can also use Quantitative Easing—creating money to buy assets—to support liquidity and economic activity. With the RBNZ turning more dovish, bearish NZD/USD setups look more attractive. The bank is keeping the cash rate at 2.25% and has pushed rate-hike expectations out to late 2026. This weakens the Kiwi on fundamentals. The policy gap versus other central banks also makes short NZD positions more appealing.Key Data And Policy Divergence
This RBNZ stance fits the late-2025 data. Inflation cooled, with the Q4 2025 Consumer Price Index falling to 2.8%, which moved it into the RBNZ’s target range. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s January 2026 unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, giving the bank more reason to keep policy supportive. On the other side, US Dollar strength is helping, but caution is still needed. Markets continue to price in more Fed cuts this year, following the reductions through 2025 that brought the Fed Funds Rate to 4.50%. The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes will be important for confirming the Fed’s direction and could cap further USD gains. Technically, the outlook also leans bearish after the break below the key 0.6000 psychological level. The move under the recent range suggests downside momentum may continue. Any short-term rebounds back toward the 200-hour moving average could offer fresh entry points for short positions. For traders, this may favour buying NZD/USD put options to limit risk, or selling futures for more direct exposure. Watch the RSI closely. At around 31, it is close to oversold and could allow a brief rebound before another move lower. A clean break below 0.5980 could increase selling pressure. In 2025, strong US data often led to sharp NZD/USD drops, especially when releases like Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations. Traders should be ready for volatility around upcoming US data, as it could strengthen the USD and further weaken the Kiwi. Last year’s pattern offers useful context for how the market may react. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.ONS reports that UK headline CPI inflation slowed to 3.0% year on year in January, down from 3.4% in December, matching forecasts
UK headline CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in January, down from 3.4% in December, according to the Office for National Statistics. The reading matched market forecasts and stayed above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, versus 3.2% in December, and also met expectations. Monthly CPI fell -0.5% in January, after rising 0.4% in December, in line with consensus.
Gbp Reaction And Boe Outlook
After the data, GBP/USD was up 0.01% at 1.3562, after trading near 1.3556 earlier. The Bank of England has said inflation pressures should ease to around 3% in Q1 2026 and move closer to 2% in Q2. Key technical levels mentioned included the 20-period EMA at 1.3593 and the 14-day RSI at 39. Other reference points were 1.3500 and 1.3400, along with a “Symmetrical Triangle” or “Volatility Contraction Pattern”. The Bank of England targets 2% inflation and adjusts interest rates to influence financial conditions. It can also use quantitative easing or quantitative tightening, which can influence the Pound. January’s inflation data matched expectations at 3.0%. Inflation is cooling from the 3.4% seen in December 2025, but the overall picture for the Pound is largely unchanged. With no surprise in the data, the currency barely moved and remained weak near 1.3560 against the dollar.Growth Risks And Rate Cut Debate
This leaves the Bank of England in a tough position. Inflation is still about a full percentage point above the 2% target. At the same time, the economy is clearly slowing, which is likely to increase pressure for rate cuts over the year. Recent data showed the UK entered a technical recession in the second half of 2025. GDP fell 0.1% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4. The outlook weakened further after ONS data showed retail sales volumes dropped 3.2% in January 2026, the largest fall in more than a year. Softer consumer spending supports the view that the Bank may prioritize growth over removing the remaining inflation. As a result, further rate hikes look unlikely, and attention is shifting to when the first rate cut may happen. For traders, this supports a bearish view on the Pound in the weeks ahead. In 2025, markets focused on how high rates would need to go to curb inflation. Now the focus is on how weaker growth could push the Bank of England to ease policy later this year. With inflation easing but growth stalling, volatility could pick up. Options may be a practical way to express a bearish GBP/USD view. Buying put options can benefit from a decline in the currency while keeping maximum loss fixed. Technically, GBP/USD remains in a downtrend and is trading below key moving averages. A break below the recent low at 1.3500 would suggest the downtrend is continuing. The next major target for sellers is 1.3400. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In January, Britain’s producer output prices were flat month on month, below forecasts of a 0.2% rise
The United Kingdom Producer Price Index (Output), month-on-month and not seasonally adjusted, was 0% in January. That was below the 0.2% forecast.
This means output prices did not change over the month. The result was 0.2 percentage points under expectations.
Producer Inflation Signals Cooling
Factory gate prices were flat in January, missing the market’s call for a small rise. This suggests producer-level inflation is easing faster than expected. It also shows manufacturers have less power to raise prices, which points to a cooling economy. This report supports the latest consumer inflation data, where headline CPI fell to 2.1% last month—close to the Bank of England’s 2% target. The Bank kept rates steady through the second half of 2025 because inflation stayed high. These new numbers suggest that reason is fading. Cooling prices, along with ONS figures showing GDP rose just 0.1% in Q4 2025, strengthen the case for an earlier rate cut. Markets may now raise the odds of a Bank of England move before summer. This is a clear shift from much of last year’s view. For our currency positions, this outlook may weigh on the British pound. Lower rates tend to make sterling less attractive than higher-yielding currencies. We should consider trades that benefit from a weaker GBP, especially versus the US dollar.Market Positioning Implications
In fixed income, this is positive for UK government bonds. Gilt yields may keep falling as markets price in a more dovish Bank of England. Long positions in gilt futures or related derivatives could perform well in the coming weeks. This backdrop can also help UK equities, especially domestic firms in the FTSE 250. Lower rates cut borrowing costs and can support growth, which may help earnings. We may consider call options on UK indices to capture potential upside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In January, the UK’s core output PPI rose from -0.1% to 0.2% month on month (not seasonally adjusted)
UK core output producer prices (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month (not seasonally adjusted) in January.
This followed a -0.1% reading in the prior month.
Rising Factory Gate Inflation
The move in core producer prices from -0.1% to 0.2% in January is a clear warning sign. It suggests the disinflation trend seen through much of 2025 may be fading at the factory gate. In other words, cost pressures could be building again, and these may flow through to consumer prices in the months ahead. This matters even more when set against the latest Office for National Statistics data, which showed headline CPI stuck at 4.0% in January. Services inflation also stayed high, above 6%. Together, these figures support the view that the “last mile” of lowering inflation will be the toughest. The Bank of England will likely watch this closely. Because of this, the market may be too hopeful about how soon the Bank of England can cut rates. A rise in producer price inflation makes a rate cut before summer less likely. Policymakers will probably want to see several months of cooler data before acting, as they did in 2024. Given that setup, we should consider selling short-term Sterling Over Night Index Average (SONIA) futures for the second half of the year. This trade can benefit if markets reprice toward fewer rate cuts than they expect today. The risk that rates stay higher for longer has increased after this release. This “higher for longer” backdrop can also support the British Pound, since higher interest rates tend to improve a currency’s appeal. We see a potential opportunity in buying GBP/USD call options expiring in April and May. This gives upside exposure to a stronger pound while limiting downside risk.Implications For UK Equities
For UK equities, this is a headwind—especially for rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and construction. We should consider buying put options on the FTSE 250, which is more UK-focused than the FTSE 100. This can help hedge against a potential sell-off if investors start to price in a more hawkish Bank of England. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Britain’s annual unadjusted input producer prices fell to -0.2% from 0.8%
The UK Producer Price Index (PPI) for input prices, year on year and not seasonally adjusted, fell to -0.2% in January. This was down from 0.8% in the previous reading.
This means UK manufacturers paid slightly less than a year ago for materials and fuel. The change from the prior reading was 1.0 percentage point.
Implications For Inflation And Rates
The drop in producer input prices to -0.2% is a clear sign of disinflation. It suggests cost pressures may keep easing and could feed into lower consumer inflation in the months ahead. This reduces the case for Bank of England rate hikes and increases the chance of a rate cut later this year. With this in mind, we should position for lower future interest rates using derivatives. One approach is to go long SONIA futures, since their prices typically rise when markets price in rate cuts. This view is supported by the volatility seen in 2025, when markets moved quickly on any data that hinted at a shift in central bank policy. A change toward lower rate expectations is likely to pressure the British Pound. A more dovish Bank of England can make sterling less attractive than currencies where central banks may keep rates unchanged. We should consider buying put options on GBP/USD or GBP/EUR to hedge or benefit if the pound declines. Lower or stable borrowing costs are usually supportive for UK equities. This could help the FTSE 100, especially large multinational firms that can also benefit from a weaker pound. We should consider call options or futures on the index to gain upside exposure.Supporting Evidence From Other Data
This producer price move is not happening in isolation. Recent ONS data showed CPI inflation cooled to 2.1% in the year to December 2025. The latest manufacturing PMI reading of 49.5 also points to weak demand rather than overheating. Together, these data support a disinflationary stance. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.January’s UK input producer price index (unadjusted) rose 0.4% month on month, in line with expectations.
The UK Producer Price Index (input), month on month and not seasonally adjusted, rose 0.4% in January. This matched the forecast of 0.4%.
January’s producer input price data came in at 0.4%, exactly as expected. Because there was no surprise, this release is unlikely to trigger sudden moves in UK assets. For derivatives, it supports the current view: inflation pressures remain, but they still look contained.
