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The S&P 500 faces challenges from tariffs and inflation but continues to show bullish momentum and upward trends
The S&P 500 is holding strong because there are no major negative factors affecting it. Recent job data is positive, showing lower wage growth, which is good for the market.
In the short term, risks include possible interest rate hikes, but these would need a significant CPI report to occur. The Federal Reserve’s current position suggests that the market will likely continue to rise after any temporary dips.
Two key issues are on the horizon: tariff negotiations and the upcoming US CPI data. Trade deals should be finalized by the August 1st deadline. The CPI numbers will be critical in keeping the current trend, with lower inflation being preferred.
Technical analysis shows that the S&P 500 is consistently reaching all-time highs. Buyers have a good setup near previous peaks, while sellers may aim for a drop to 6,000. The 4-hour chart shows an upward trendline, presenting buying chances for potential new highs, while sellers are watching for a drop to 5,800.
On the 1-hour chart, a minor upward trendline supports positive momentum. Buyers might push for new highs, while sellers will look for declines to 6,236 and then to 6,160. Key events for this week include tariff discussions and US Jobless Claims data.
This situation can be viewed in two ways: one that shows a steady upward movement in the index and another that points out emerging volatility—mostly minor, but sometimes significant.
The data showing strong job growth, with wages rising at a slower pace, keeps the market steady. Lower inflation without job losses suggests a smoother path for interest rates. Powell’s position indicates no rush to tighten policies, meaning any downward trends are likely to be brief and allow for recovery. Current dips don’t indicate major issues but rather an opportunity that buyers often embrace.
However, the upcoming CPI report is an important marker. If inflation data rises sharply, it could change expectations, leading to renewed concerns about interest rates and adjustments in pricing. The ongoing tariff negotiations could also cause significant movements. If no agreement is reached by the August deadline, it will quickly impact equity pricing. Treasuries would likely strengthen and risk sensitivity would increase.
Regarding levels, the previous high matters more than just symbolically. It’s where significant positions are set to be re-established. Short-term buyers have found support in specific areas defined by minor trendlines, with momentum building in those patterns. The 4-hour structure shows a smooth incline with strong support bounces. This is a textbook route to another high unless unexpected economic events occur midweek.
The 5,800 level is a crucial point to watch. If prices drop below this level quickly, especially during low liquidity times, it could trigger sell-offs. Until then, pullbacks are being met with swift buying. For sellers to gain ground, they need to push through overlapping technical zones that have been holding.
On the 1-hour chart, there is a weaker but relevant support line that might face pressure if traders hedge against CPI. Renewed selling does not require a major collapse; even a slight drop from recent highs to the 6,236 and 6,160 ranges could cool the buying activity. However, bearish movements have been weak so far, though this could change with a negative jobless claims report.
As the week progresses, the focus is on two key events. The market’s reaction to these events—trade headlines and the inflation numbers—will be important and won’t fade quickly. Pay close attention to the data around these events. Act based on the numbers rather than headlines, and keep an eye on volume during the initial reactions. Past experiences have shown that there can be misdirections, especially around CPI adjustments.
Stay vigilant about changes in volatility metrics, particularly in pre-market futures and implied skew. These indicators, more than news, will reveal where potential blind spots may be forming.
The EU announces promising advancements in US trade discussions, but actual progress is uncertain.
The EU and US are moving ahead with their trade talks, aiming to finalize an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Recently, Trump and von der Leyen had a productive phone call, signaling a potential shift in progress.
However, despite reports of advancement, the discussions have been slow over the past three months. With little time left before the deadline, it’s unclear if a deal can be reached. The outcome of these discussions will soon become clear as the deadline approaches.
Update on Transatlantic Trade Talks
This article highlights recent developments in trade discussions between the EU and US. The recent phone call between Trump and von der Leyen was seen as productive, indicating a possible momentum change after a standstill. While some news stories suggest progress, it’s important to consider that negotiations have been sluggish recently. As the July 9 deadline nears, crucial decisions must be made quickly, or efforts may fall apart. In the weeks leading up to the deadline, it’s wise to avoid getting caught up in political drama or headlines about “breakthroughs” unless backed by actual commitments or timelines. What may seem like progress might lack substance until firm agreements are reached by both parties. With the push for a deal, financial markets linked to geopolitical risks may feel increased pressure. Traders operating in sensitive sectors or broader indices should brace for volatility due to news and speculation.Market Volatility and Sentiment
If market players start to anticipate an optimistic outcome too early, especially with less liquid instruments or distant contracts, this could lead to unsustainable positions or sudden shifts when sentiment changes. We’ve seen this before: optimism builds around statements, only to see timelines pass, causing prices to drop sharply. As we approach July 9, we might see volatility increase, indicating market uncertainty about immediate results. This deadline is set by negotiators, not laws, so it could be extended. However, the possibility of an unresolved deal might trigger short-lived but sharp price changes. Watching the movement of FX options related to USD and major EUR pairs can signal market sentiment. If there’s a gap between actual and expected volatility, it can provide chances for hedging or opportunistic entries. Selling options might seem attractive, but without clear policy changes, sharp reversals can happen. Short-term positions now face more risks from headlines. We should review exposures daily; any significant statements from either side that go beyond vague hopes into specifics could really spike interest for institutions adjusting their risk. There may also be chances for hedging across related sectors in Europe and the US. Keep a close eye on conditional trades, and adjust your strategies to account for both direction and the speed of news changes. The situation has become more serious; timelines are tightening—any delays could need a solid explanation or risk unsettling sentiment further. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Interest rate expectations show minor adjustments as central banks maintain or consider cuts without immediate changes.
Major central banks have not changed their expectations for interest rates as they await new economic data. The US Federal Reserve plans a total cut of 53 basis points by the end of the year, with a 95% chance of keeping rates steady at its next meeting. The European Central Bank expects a 26 basis points cut, with an 89% probability of maintaining current rates.
The Bank of England is projected to lower its rates by 55 basis points, with an 85% chance of a rate cut at its next meeting. The Bank of Canada may cut by 30 basis points but has a 72% likelihood of no immediate changes. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reduce rates by 77 basis points, with a 94% chance of a cut soon.
Central Bank Expectations
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand predicts a cut of 31 basis points, with an 81% chance of holding rates steady for now. The Swiss National Bank anticipates a 9 basis points cut, with an 88% probability of no changes. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan aims for an 11 basis points increase, with a 99% chance of keeping rates stable at the upcoming meeting. This section summarizes where major central banks stand on borrowing costs. Most are expected to cut rates by the end of the year but have no immediate plans to do so. Instead of a sudden shift, there’s a gradual movement toward easing. Central banks are likely waiting for economic data before making concrete changes. Although cuts are on the horizon, many are leaning toward keeping things steady for the moment. Japan is a clear exception, following its own course. It plans slight rate increases and shows almost total certainty of stability at its next meeting, taking a careful approach to normalizing its policy. Looking ahead, a few trends are emerging. While projections for terminal rates vary across regions, they all seem to follow a gentle trajectory without sharp changes. Short-term yields for major sovereigns are still heavily influenced by rates expectations. As long as central banks remain patient, we can expect minor flattening of implied rates. This won’t be a steep drop—just a slow easing of last year’s pricing pressures.Market Trends and Strategies
Volatility may quiet down unless an unexpected event occurs. With major meetings completed and most central banks signaling a wait-and-see approach, the immediate market drivers will likely come from inflation reports, labor market statistics, and growth indications. This means investors will focus more on how the actual data deviates from forecasts rather than the data itself. A surprising rise in inflation, for instance, could temporarily pause easing momentum, with the importance lying in the degree and persistence of that surprise rather than just one report. We’ve already factored in rate cuts to different extents, so any potential turbulence will likely stem from adjustments rather than new direction. If inflation doesn’t decline as expected, markets will need to prepare for a slower easing pace than what’s currently implied. On the flip side, weaker-than-expected activity could speed up rate cut expectations, especially affecting commodity-linked currencies and their associated yields. For our strategy, it’s crucial to maintain short-term hedges and avoid being overly confident in a single direction. Given that there’s a high likelihood of no changes in the next meetings, carry positions could yield modest returns in select currencies while being hedged against downturns. Skew should remain low, which supports neutral volatility positioning in the short term, unless data triggers a repricing. We don’t expect sudden disruptions but will monitor areas where rate cuts are heavily anticipated without supporting data. In those scenarios, any repricing could be sharp and one-sided, particularly beyond a three-month timeframe. In this market, discipline is critical in timing reactions. Allow the data to guide decisions. Ensure gamma is controlled, especially before major releases, and keep an eye on cross-market correlations, which may become more significant if rate paths diverge. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UBS expects the ECB to cut rates in July, depending on the results of US-EU trade talks.
UBS expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower its key policy rates in July, a view not widely shared among others. They believe a change could happen if trade talks between the US and EU go well.
The ECB has suggested it will pause any changes this summer. Right now, market expectations show about a 90% chance that the ECB will keep rates the same at the July 24 meeting.
UBS’s viewpoint diverges from the general consensus. Most market participants expect no changes at the July meeting, reflecting a strong belief based on the ECB’s own communications and current economic stability. Policymakers are keen to maintain the status quo over the summer to limit volatility and take time to analyze inflation trends.
However, UBS sees a possible rate cut happening soon, not far in the future. Their reasoning is based on eurozone data and the potential resolution of trade talks with external partners, which could boost sentiment and business confidence. If these talks progress positively, it would give the ECB more reason to loosen policy sooner than the market anticipates.
If expectations change regarding these events, we could see significant adjustments in eurozone interest rate markets. For short-term futures and options, this means tighter pricing and increased sensitivity to any minor comments from ECB officials in the coming days. It’s not just the decision date that matters; any forward guidance shared in speeches or interviews will also be important.
Traders who have aligned their positions with the consensus—expecting no change in July—should reconsider if they have fully accounted for the alternative scenario that UBS proposes. This is especially important for strategies that extend beyond July into late Q3. At a minimum, those relying on stability in July may need to adjust their plans.
Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, has recently made strong statements supporting the pause. However, her assessment could change quickly if data or external factors evolve unexpectedly. Past experiences show how external events, especially in transatlantic relations, can significantly influence policy changes.
The current test involves not only inflation expectations but also the potential for positive momentum from US trade talks. If these negotiations hint at resolving issues constructively—possibly even before the ECB’s July meeting—what was once seen as an unlikely scenario could become more probable.
We shouldn’t take guidance stability as a certainty for inaction. There have been times when policymakers used periods of stability to set the stage for changes. Thus, if traders start considering UBS’s alternative scenario more seriously, swap markets and options could show different signals in the upcoming sessions.
Market movements in the next week may indicate whether the broader community starts to shift from the prevailing expectation of a July hold. If this begins, those tracking mid-curve volatility and rate differences over the next three to six months will gain early insights into changing sentiments.
We might be nearing a point where focus shifts from what policymakers stated in the last quarter’s press conference to what the markets think they are preparing for now. This could create uneven risk situations, especially when expected movements are confined to a narrow range. We’ll be monitoring this closely.
OPEC+ is expected to increase output by 550,000 bpd, with minimal impact on oil prices
OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in oil production by about 550,000 barrels per day for September, according to a Reuters report. This change will return 2.17 million barrels per day that were previously cut.
The plan also includes a 300,000 barrels per day increase for the UAE’s production quota. This was anticipated, so its effect on oil prices should be minimal.
Managing Oil Supply
The article describes a careful move by the oil-producing group to gradually lift past supply cuts. Essentially, they are restoring around half a million barrels a day in September, following earlier plans to recover over two million barrels per day. The goal is to manage supply to stabilize the market without overwhelming it. The increase aims to maintain some control over prices and prevent disruptions. The UAE’s share of production is increasing by about 300,000 barrels per day, which was expected. Since there were no surprises regarding timing or scale, we do not anticipate an immediate impact on spot prices. The market seems to have factored this in already. For those trading oil derivatives, the key now is how these changes might affect future price curves. With September’s output mostly decided, front-month contracts may see little volatility unless something new arises. The focus should shift toward the longer-term, as traders adjust to new balances into the fourth quarter.Market Dynamics Focus
We should also pay attention to refinery margins and product inventories, particularly in areas where summer demand might drop. While the overall supply seems to be increasing, the actual effect on prices will depend on product stock levels and demand. Keep an eye on refinery maintenance schedules, as they can impact product output and shift demand for crude oil itself. In the coming week, price movements may stay steady unless new inventory data or geopolitical risks arise. Traders dealing with spread structures should be ready for changes between nearby and deferred contracts. With supply commitments clearer now, pricing will likely be influenced more by demand uncertainties and transport challenges. Watch floating storage volumes and shipping rates, as they can quickly impact physical markets. We also need to consider how economic data from the US and China influences the energy market. If economic reports are weaker than expected, demand forecasts may be adjusted, widening calendar spreads. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data might lead traders to price deferred barrels higher, especially with potential demand increases in winter. Overall, with the September production changes now known, the focus shifts to whether the expected volumes will actually be delivered. Export and load-out data from major terminals will indicate compliance or discrepancies. Differences in the physical market will provide clarity, and any gaps could create short-term trading opportunities, particularly for those involved in regional grades. The impact is likely to be felt more in contracts linked to physical oil than in major benchmarks like Brent or WTI, so refining margins and regional balances should remain in focus. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Nagel thinks German fiscal policy will have a greater impact than tariffs, citing signs of economic recovery and growth potential.
A European Central Bank policymaker mentioned that Germany’s fiscal policy is expected to have a bigger impact than tariffs. There is cautious hope for the future, with signs of recovery in Germany.
This year, Germany might see a small annual growth increase. There is also encouragement for better integration of European financial markets. Surveys like PMIs and ZEW show steady improvement in the German economy.
Expectations for Germany’s future remain high, indicating continued positive trends. These optimistic outlooks give a hopeful perspective on the region’s economy.
This update suggests that Germany’s fiscal actions might have more economic influence than trade measures like tariffs. This means that government spending and investment decisions could better indicate short-term price changes in Europe than discussions around tariffs.
Nagel highlights a slight but notable rise in Germany’s annual GDP, supported by stable forecasts from indices like the ZEW and manufacturing PMIs. These indicators not only show improvement but also reflect strength in key industries, especially in industrial production, which has been slow since early last year.
When someone like Nagel stresses financial integration, especially during times of low inflation, the initial reaction might be to see it as mere policy talk. However, for traders dealing with EUR-based instruments, it suggests more than just ambition—it indicates less risk of fragmentation and a long-term alignment in capital flows. This aspect is vital when interpreting yield curve shapes and pricing changes across different regions.
We’ve observed the bund curve stabilizing, with the 5y-10y spreads showing slightly less inversion. This often occurs when traders believe growth will outstrip inflation moderation. This trend has been subtle but consistent, indicating that even without major ECB policy shifts soon, there is a preference for cyclical investments over defensive ones—at least in the rates market.
This trend is backed by steady strength in local surveys rather than just hard economic data. Traders shouldn’t expect massive quarter-on-quarter GDP increases, but consistency in forward indicators often leads to gradual positioning into more directional trades. There’s less demand for downside hedges in European equities, and at the same time, ATM implied volatilities for EUR/USD have eased back to mid-2023 levels, suggesting that macro uncertainty is lessening.
We’ve also seen leverage ratios in European banks rise again, albeit slightly. This change indicates that institutional borrowers and lenders in Germany are reassessing credit conditions. Expectations for yield convergence—especially in short-term BTPs compared to core German bonds—have also calmed.
For now, it’s more beneficial to analyze sovereign flow and private lending trends spreading from Frankfurt, rather than reacting too strongly to individual data releases. As differences in European economic trajectories shrink, foreign interest is returning to eurozone assets, including corporate debt and structured derivatives tied to regional indices.
In our view, we’re paying close attention to positions within swaps and rate futures. Flows have been somewhat directional but not aggressive. Many desks are merely reducing risk scenarios rather than betting heavily on a particular trend. This aligns with a market shifting from recession worries to a modest growth increase—low in volatility but still evident in implied rate movements.
So far, this recovery seems solid, at least in sentiment. This is reflected in changes in discount functions, with less divergence among major tenors. If this trend continues, derivatives based on Bunds and euro swaps may shift from protective structures to steeper trades, with expectations around the end of 2024.
The US dollar strengthens against major currencies due to payroll data and tariff concerns.
The dollar is gaining strength after last week’s non-farm payroll data. It’s currently rising against major currencies. For example, EUR/USD is down 0.2% at 1.1750, and USD/JPY is testing levels above 145.00.
This week, trade headlines and tariffs are expected to be in focus again. The dollar’s current strength might be short-lived due to the wider economic situation. Despite some advantages from a crowded dollar short position, the policy uncertainty under the Trump administration has kept pressure on the dollar.
Commodity Currencies Under Pressure
Commodity currencies are weakening, with USD/CAD up 0.4% to 1.3567 and AUD/USD down 0.7% towards 0.6500. Expect tariffs to grab attention in the coming days. In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are nearing 4.35%, testing both the 100 and 200-day moving averages. The current US fiscal situation is a negative factor for the dollar. However, a short squeeze on the dollar may occur, as it has faced challenges since April. This period shows the US dollar has found short-term support, mainly due to stronger-than-expected labor market data, which was a boost. This rise comes amid challenges from political instability and fiscal issues that have put downward pressure on the dollar. As risk sentiment shifts and trade news creates friction, commodity-linked currencies have fallen. We should see the current moves as temporary rather than definitive. When EUR/USD drops by 0.2% after a data release, it shows the market’s quick reaction rather than a strong belief in ongoing dollar strength. USD/JPY crossing 145 raises some concerns, as that level has historically caused discomfort in Tokyo. Speculators often enter just as institutional investors start to step back.Bond Market Adjustments
The decline in commodity currencies makes sense in this context. A 0.7% drop in AUD/USD towards 0.6500 indicates low tolerance for risk when tariff headlines resurface. The same is true for CAD, weakening even with rising oil prices. This trend reflects not on domestic strength but on a general reluctance to hold foreign currencies against the dollar when Washington shifts its stance. The slide toward 4.35% in US 10-year bond yields isn’t just about strong payrolls. The real driver is a more complicated fiscal situation. With deficits rising and auction interest decreasing, investors are asking for more to hold US debt. As the 100- and 200-day moving averages are tested, rate expectations firm up—not because immediate hikes are likely, but because future pricing needs adjustment. Another important factor to monitor is that the dollar is one of the most heavily shorted positions in speculative portfolios. This isn’t unusual when fundamentals are misaligned. However, such positions can change quickly when crowded trades face new narratives. If there’s even a small improvement in US economic momentum and a reduction in trade tensions, short sellers may be forced to cover their positions, causing an upward squeeze. Early signs support this view. We need to watch the market closely but act clearly. This is not the time to rush into moves, especially at key technical levels that may not hold if liquidity decreases. As the week progresses, our approach should focus on market beliefs about future policy rather than the policies themselves—a crucial distinction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Total sight deposits at SNB decreased to CHF 459.8 billion from CHF 460.7 billion.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported that total sight deposits on July 4 were CHF 459.8 billion. This is a small drop from the previous amount of CHF 460.7 billion.
Domestic sight deposits also fell slightly. They stood at CHF 424.4 billion, down from CHF 425.8 billion earlier.
This decrease in sight deposits indicates a small change in the excess liquidity in the financial system. We see this slight dip in total and domestic sight deposits as a sign of tightening financial conditions. While the change may seem minor, it suggests that liquidity is slowly being pulled from banks.
A drop in sight deposits often means there’s either more activity in the money markets or a slight shift in the central bank’s approach. Weekly changes like this usually reflect gradual adjustments in monetary policy, especially when there aren’t any big surprises in the economy. In the past, similar changes have sometimes occurred before noticeable shifts in funding costs.
Over the last few months, Jordan’s approach has been careful. He prefers to use balance sheet tools to manage domestic financial conditions without making major announcements. The latest figures indicate that intervention may still be happening but in a more measured way. It’s also possible that foreign exchange interventions could resume, especially if pressure on the franc increases again.
From a trading perspective, it’s important to remember that the SNB often acts quietly. The overall message from these figures seems to show restraint, but in a structured and gradual way. If we adjust our positioning, we should pay attention to forward curves on CHF rates and changes in overnight inflation swaps. Price formation remains sensitive to perceptions of liquidity shifts, even if they seem small initially.
Additionally, with the domestic banking system holding slightly fewer central bank reserves, short-term money market spreads may face slight pressure, potentially impacting positions in rate-linked derivatives. Recent data suggests that volatility could return to CHF interest rate products, especially if this trend continues through upcoming data releases.
We think it’s important to pay attention to these balance sheet movements. They often come before rate changes or modifications in collateral rules. For those setting up positions, closely monitoring T/N and S/N basis could show if the market is starting to adjust to lower excess liquidity. Timing entries connected to funding flows could become more critical, especially as we enter a typically slower summer trading period.
Derivatives pricing might also be affected by lower trading volumes. Premium skew may present opportunities, provided one carefully hedges against any remaining volatility. These brief disruptions can offer appealing return possibilities given the short duration risk.
In summary, although the decline in sight deposits is small, it’s a data point worth factoring into broader risk evaluations, especially as funding conditions change gradually.
USD/TRY reaches new all-time highs at 39.98 as risk-off sentiment rises
The USD/TRY is on the rise for the second consecutive session, trading around 39.98 during early European hours on Monday, hitting new all-time highs. This increase comes amid a risk-off mood following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on BRICS nations.
President Trump declared that countries supporting BRICS’ anti-American policies would be subject to this tariff, with no exceptions. Concerns about additional tariffs are growing, as Trump is expected to send out 12 to 15 tariff letters soon, aiming to finalize trade deals by July 9.
US Trade Tariff Strategy
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed that Trump plans to inform trading partners tariffs might revert to April 2 levels by August 1 if no trade progress is made. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that Trump is finalizing specific rates and agreements. The Turkish Lira is depreciating, partly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas ended without results. Turkish monetary policy is also changing, with interest rates projected to rise to 50% in 2024 and inflation expected to fall to 35.05% by June 2025. Tariffs are customs duties on imports designed to boost local production competitiveness. They are different from regular taxes, which are paid at the point of sale. Economists have varying opinions on their overall benefit or harm. Trump’s tariff plan intends to bolster the US economy and target major import partners. The recent rise in the USD/TRY reflects more than just a standard foreign exchange trend. The continued strength is influenced by various geopolitical and trade pressures, including the US administration’s renewed focus on tariffs aimed at BRICS countries.Turkish Economic Indicators
With Trump’s blanket 10% tariff targeting nations aligned with BRICS policies and potential adjustments expected before the July 9 deadline, the situation is becoming increasingly complicated. Traders in the derivative markets are reacting quickly to these trade risks. The Turkish Lira is particularly vulnerable due to its internal monetary issues and global sentiment shifts driven by urgent risk-off pivots. Bessent’s warning about tariffs potentially returning to early April levels by August is significant, not just for timing but for its strategic implications. The administration seems to be preparing for tough negotiations, equipping itself with tools for retaliation if talks stall. Volatility may rise as these deadlines approach, making it wise to consider this in short-term strategies. Meanwhile, traders analyzing Turkish fundamentals are already factoring in the impact of tighter monetary policies. Interest rates near 50% are not a quick solution; they signal a long-term commitment to reducing inflation after years of currency depreciation and inconsistent policies. Although domestic inflation has dropped to 35.05%, which is an improvement, external pressures are likely to continue affecting the Lira’s stability. The unsuccessful Middle East talks further complicate matters. Diplomatic stagnation usually leads to a preference for safe-haven currencies, making emerging market currencies like the Lira more vulnerable, especially those with significant current account deficits or reliance on foreign investment. Therefore, hedging strategies related to USD/TRY should focus on upward exposure rather than carry setups. Lutnick’s remarks, although brief, indicate readiness. Agreement outlines may be prepared, and potential rates under consideration suggest swift decision-making. For those tracking implied volatility, timing will be crucial in the coming weeks. It’s important to remember that tariffs serve as strategic tools, not just revenue generators. The US approach seems more aimed at reshaping trade relationships than collecting taxes. That’s why tariffs on BRICS affiliations draw attention, creating uncertainty among secondary partners who fear becoming subjects of stricter tariffs. The interaction between foreign policy messages and market reactions typically affects derivatives more than spot markets. The immediate results show USD strength and EM weakness. For positioning strategies, we need to measure not just volatility ranges but also how quickly markets respond to political statements. It’s becoming less about the content and more about the speed at which markets react to these developments. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Crude oil prices stay stable despite output increases, as focus shifts to global growth prospects
OPEC+ will boost oil production by over 548,000 barrels per day in August. They will review this increase in their next meeting for September.
This initial increase caused prices to drop, but later increases had less impact on the market. Global growth is still the main focus, aided by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and reduced trade tensions.
