Austria’s unemployment rate fell to 8.3% in February. This was down from 8.8% in the previous period. The recent dip in Austrian unemployment to 8.3% is a stronger-than-expected signal for the economy. This positive data point suggests a tightening labor market which generally precedes wage growth. Derivative traders should view this as a potential catalyst for a more hawkish European Central Bank.

Inflation Pressure Building

We see this report adding to inflationary pressures, especially since the latest Eurozone flash CPI for February 2026 came in at 2.4%, slightly above the 2.2% forecast. A tight labor market often leads to wage growth, which can keep inflation persistent. This puts more pressure on the ECB’s upcoming rate decisions. Looking back at 2025, we saw the market consistently price in rate cuts that the ECB was slow to deliver. Given this new strong labor data, we believe the market will again have to reprice expectations for any easing this year. Traders might consider short positions on December 2026 Euribor futures, betting that policy rates will remain higher for longer than currently priced. For equity derivatives, this strong employment figure is bullish for Austrian consumer-facing companies. The Austrian Traded Index (ATX) has already seen a 3% rise in the last month, and this data could fuel further gains. We would look at call options on the ATX or on specific banking and retail stocks that benefit from a robust domestic economy. This development also impacts the Euro, strengthening it against currencies whose central banks are signaling a more dovish path. Recent US Jobless Claims figures from late February 2026 showed a slight uptick, suggesting some softening in the American labor market. Therefore, we see potential in positioning for a stronger EUR/USD, as the ECB now has less reason to cut rates compared to the Fed.

Potential Market Positioning

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Gold rose on Monday as markets reopened after weekend escalation in tensions between the US, Israel and Iran. Price moves are expected to stay driven by news events, with volatility remaining high. Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is supported by geopolitical risk and market positioning. If higher crude prices raise inflation expectations while growth risks increase, real yields may stay contained, which tends to support gold, while a stronger US dollar could limit gains.

Geopolitical Risk And Gold

A wider regional conflict or disruption to energy supplies could lift gold further via higher oil prices, stronger inflation expectations and contained real yields. If tensions stay contained and energy flows are unaffected, the initial risk-off move may fade as the oil risk premium falls. Gold’s broader drivers include strong central bank buying and expectations of policy easing later this year. These factors may limit declines even if tensions stabilise, with pullbacks more likely to be shallow than to reverse the broader trend. We are seeing gold push towards $2,550 an ounce as markets process the weekend’s events involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This adds a fresh geopolitical risk premium, suggesting traders should consider long positions through futures or buying call options to capture potential upside. The current environment reinforces gold’s role as a primary hedge against conflict. Near-term price action will be volatile and driven by headlines, creating opportunities for options traders. We believe strategies that profit from price swings, such as long straddles or strangles, could be effective. This allows traders to benefit from a significant price move in either direction without having to predict the outcome of the fluid geopolitical situation.

Derivatives Strategies For Volatility

Even if tensions ease, the underlying support for gold remains strong due to the Federal Reserve’s policy shift we saw through 2025. With the Fed Funds Rate now at 3.75%, down from its peak, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold is significantly lower. This backdrop should keep real yields contained and supportive for gold prices. Furthermore, we see a solid floor under the market due to immense structural buying. Central banks continued their aggressive purchasing, adding over 1,030 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, mirroring the record-breaking pace of the prior few years. This consistent demand suggests any price dips will likely be shallow, making selling out-of-the-money puts an attractive strategy for generating income. The risk of a wider conflict could also impact energy prices, which in turn would boost inflation expectations. With Brent crude already climbing past $95 a barrel on the latest news and core inflation remaining sticky around 3.1% at the end of last year, any further oil shock would likely boost gold. A stronger dollar could slow gains, but we see the fundamental case for holding gold derivatives as very firm. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Switzerland’s SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 47.4 in February. This was below expectations of 50. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in business conditions. A reading at or above 50 indicates expansion.

Swiss Manufacturing Signals Contraction

The February Purchasing Managers’ Index for Switzerland registered at 47.4, falling short of the neutral 50.0 level we were anticipating. This indicates an unexpected contraction in the manufacturing sector. Such a miss suggests potential weakness in the Swiss economy that was not previously priced into the market. We see this data putting immediate downward pressure on the Swiss Franc. A weakening manufacturing outlook increases the probability that the Swiss National Bank will adopt a more dovish stance, potentially signaling future interest rate cuts to stimulate growth. Derivative traders may look at buying call options on pairs like EUR/CHF, anticipating a weaker franc in the coming weeks. This report is also a bearish signal for the Swiss Market Index (SMI), as many of its largest components rely on robust industrial activity. Looking back from our 2025 perspective, we recall how the extended period of sub-50 PMI readings throughout 2023 consistently capped gains in the SMI. Consequently, buying put options on the SMI or its related ETFs could be a viable strategy to position for a potential slide.

Volatility May Rise Across Swiss Markets

We should also expect an increase in market volatility following this negative surprise. Implied volatility on Swiss equities, which had been trending around 14%, is now likely to rise as uncertainty grows. Traders could consider long volatility positions, such as purchasing call options on the Swiss Volatility Index (VSMI), to capitalize on anticipated market nervousness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold (XAU/USD) traded above $5,400 in early European hours, its highest level since late January. Risk appetite fell and demand shifted towards safe-haven assets, while the US Dollar rose to its highest level since January 23. Geopolitical tensions increased after the US and Israel carried out a strike on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s IRGC Navy said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Market Drivers And Key Catalysts

US Producer Price Index data released on Friday renewed inflation worries, alongside signs of slower growth. Markets are also watching US data due this week, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP private payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Technically, gold’s earlier break above $5,200 remains in place. The MACD is positive and the RSI is 68.88. Support levels are seen at $5,260, then $5,210, with $5,180 below that. Resistance is near $5,390, and a move above it could extend the rise. Given the surge in gold past $5,400, driven by the major military conflict in West Asia, we see this as a strong signal to favor bullish positions. We should consider buying call options or establishing long futures contracts to capitalize on the upward momentum. This move is a direct response to the intense demand for safe-haven assets as the global situation deteriorates. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil supply, is a critical factor that will likely fuel further gains. We’ve already seen Brent crude oil jump 12% to over $105 a barrel in early trading, and we recall how the energy crises of the 1970s created a stagflationary environment where gold thrived. This escalation will feed into inflation for months, reinforcing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

Risk Management And Event Driven Volatility

While a strong US dollar presents a headwind, the Federal Reserve appears to be in a difficult position. The high Producer Price Index data we saw last Friday, similar to the stubborn inflation prints throughout 2025, confirms the Fed cannot cut rates without risking an inflationary spiral. This ongoing uncertainty is causing a spike in market volatility, which makes options strategies valuable for navigating the expected price swings. This week’s US economic data, particularly Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, will inject significant short-term volatility. We should be prepared for sharp moves around these releases and consider using put options to protect our long positions from any sudden reversals. Even with the bullish momentum, managing risk is crucial when the Relative Strength Index is nearing 70 and markets are reacting this strongly to headlines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Swiss National Bank said on Monday, during European trading hours, that it could intervene in foreign exchange markets to dampen rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. After the comments, USD/CHF was 0.5% higher, near 0.7730. The Swiss National Bank is Switzerland’s central bank and has a mandate to ensure price stability over the medium and long term. It defines price stability as Swiss CPI rising by less than 2% per year. The SNB sets its policy rate to meet its price objective. Higher rates are generally associated with a stronger Swiss Franc, while lower rates tend to weaken it. The SNB has regularly intervened in foreign exchange markets to limit Swiss Franc strength, which can affect export competitiveness. Between 2011 and 2015, it used a peg to the euro to restrain CHF gains. It can intervene using foreign exchange reserves, often by buying currencies such as the US dollar or the euro. During periods of higher inflation, especially linked to energy, it may refrain from intervening because a stronger CHF can reduce energy import costs. The SNB meets once per quarter in March, June, September and December for its monetary policy assessment. Each meeting includes a policy decision and a medium-term inflation forecast. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has clearly stated it is prepared to intervene in currency markets to weaken the Swiss Franc. This is a direct warning that further appreciation of the franc will likely be met with action from the central bank. We should view this as a signal that a potential floor is being established for pairs like USD/CHF and EUR/CHF. This verbal intervention is given weight by the latest economic data, as Swiss inflation for February 2026 registered at 1.4%, comfortably below the SNB’s 2% target. With price stability achieved, the bank can now prioritize supporting Switzerland’s export sector, which is harmed by an overly strong currency. This makes their threat to buy foreign currency highly credible. We see this as a significant policy reversal from the stance taken through much of 2023 and 2024, when the SNB sold foreign reserves to strengthen the franc and fight inflation. From the perspective of 2025, we saw the franc gain ground as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty. The SNB’s new language suggests it will not tolerate a repeat of that significant appreciation this year. For derivative traders, the increased likelihood of intervention raises implied volatility, making options strategies attractive. Buying call options on EUR/CHF, particularly with the pair trading near the psychologically important 0.9450 level, offers a way to profit from a weaker franc. This strategy has a defined risk, limited to the premium paid for the options. Looking back, we remember the extreme market volatility in January 2015 when the SNB unexpectedly removed its euro peg. While we do not expect a shock of that magnitude, it serves as a reminder of how decisively the SNB can act. The bank’s current statements suggest a more managed, but firm, approach to guiding the currency lower. With the next official SNB policy meeting scheduled for later this month, this warning seems timed to manage expectations. Any short-term strength in the Swiss Franc over the coming weeks could represent a selling opportunity. It is generally unwise to position against a central bank that has clearly stated its intentions and has the reserves to back it up.

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Safe-haven demand drove markets early Monday after the United States and Israel carried out a joint attack on Iran. The US calendar includes the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February later in the day. Iran retaliated by targeting US assets across the Gulf after the strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and up to 40 senior officials. Hezbollah said it struck Israeli missile defence sites, and NBC News reported three US service members killed in action.

Escalation Across The Region

BBC News said Iranian strikes continued into Monday, with explosions reported in Bahrain and Dubai, and smoke seen near the US embassy in Kuwait. BBC also reported that an Iranian missile strike killed nine people in Beit Shemesh in Israel. Oil prices jumped after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said no vessels may cross the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose above $75, its highest since June, then eased to just over $72.00, still up more than 7% on the day. Gold rose more than 2% to a fresh monthly high above $5,400. The US Dollar Index rose about 0.75% to around 98.35, while US stock index futures fell 1.3% to 1.8%. USD/CAD held near 1.3650 as higher oil supported the Canadian Dollar. EUR/USD fell 0.8% to around 1.1720, GBP/USD dropped nearly 1% to around 1.3360, and USD/JPY rose over 0.5% towards 157.00.

Volatility And Hedging Strategies

We are seeing a massive spike in market fear, which means volatility is the main trade right now. We expect the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to push well above 35, similar to the levels seen at the start of the Ukraine conflict back in 2022. Derivative traders should consider long volatility strategies through VIX futures or options on volatility ETFs. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical supply shock, as roughly 21% of the world’s daily oil consumption passes through it. We saw a smaller disruption in 2019 when Saudi facilities were attacked, causing a nearly 20% price spike in a single day. Given the scale of this conflict, buying call options on WTI and Brent crude futures looks like a primary strategy. With US stock futures already pointing sharply lower, we should be looking at protective put options on major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for February will be old news, as the market is now pricing in a sharp economic slowdown due to soaring energy costs. This is a much larger shock than the regional banking fears we navigated back in 2025. Gold is acting as the primary safe haven, and the move above $5,400 confirms this powerful trend. With geopolitical risk at its highest in decades and the threat of oil-induced inflation rising, we should expect continued demand for the metal. Buying call options on gold futures or gold-backed ETFs is a direct way to position for further escalation. The flight to the US Dollar is intense, and we expect this to continue punishing the Euro. Europe’s significant reliance on energy imports, with the EU importing over 95% of its crude oil, makes it extremely vulnerable to this oil shock. Traders will likely find value in buying put options on the EUR/USD pair. Despite typical risk-off sentiment, the Japanese Yen is weakening against the US Dollar as capital seeks the ultimate safety of US markets. This suggests we should look at call options on USD/JPY, betting that the dollar’s dominance will overshadow the Yen’s traditional safe-haven role. The move towards 157.00 indicates a strong momentum that is likely to persist. The Canadian dollar is being supported by the surge in oil prices, creating a tug-of-war against the strong US dollar. This makes USD/CAD less predictable, so traders might consider range-bound strategies like selling strangles if they believe the two forces will balance out. Otherwise, it may be best to avoid this pair until a clear direction emerges. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Canadian Dollar ended the week slightly stronger against the US Dollar, with mixed moves in equities and crude affecting trading. Scotiabank’s valuation and short-term model point to continued range trading in USD/CAD. Spot is trading a little above Scotiabank’s fair value estimate of 1.3625. The bank says model inputs have been moving in the CAD’s favour on a trend basis, which may limit USD gains. The week-ahead model projects a 1.3581 to 1.3786 trading range, with 75% confidence. Scotiabank says upside may be capped near the 1.37 level. The pair remains below long-term resistance around 1.37. Scotiabank also refers to an earlier break below trend support and a bearish Head & Shoulders trigger this month. Daily DMI trend momentum is described as weak but moving towards a USD-bearish signal. Weekly and monthly DMIs are characterised as firmly USD-bearish. With USD/CAD currently testing the 1.3680 level, we are again challenging the significant resistance around 1.37 that we saw cap gains for much of last year. Looking back at the analysis from 2025, the view was that rallies should be faded, and this range-trading bias remains relevant today. The market is now deciding whether this long-term ceiling will finally break or hold firm once more. Recent data is giving us conflicting signals, which supports the idea of a continued range for now. The latest US CPI data for February 2026 came in slightly cooler than expected at 2.4%, tempering US dollar strength and Fed rate hike expectations. However, Canada’s own February jobs report was disappointing, showing an addition of only 15,000 jobs against a consensus of 25,000, which is weighing on the loonie. Adding to the pressure on the Canadian dollar, WTI crude oil has slipped back to $78 a barrel from recent highs, removing a key pillar of support. Furthermore, the latest Commitment of Traders report shows that speculative net-short positions on the CAD have increased to their highest level in three months. This indicates that the wider market is betting against the Canadian currency. For traders who believe this 1.37 ceiling will hold, selling out-of-the-money call options or call spreads with strike prices at 1.3750 or above could be an effective strategy. This approach allows us to collect premium while capitalizing on the expectation that the pair will fail to break higher in the coming weeks. The defined resistance provides a clear level to trade against. If we expect the pair to remain tightly bound between support and resistance, an iron condor could be a suitable strategy to profit from low volatility. We could look at selling a call spread above 1.3750 and a put spread below 1.3550. This position profits as long as the USD/CAD exchange rate stays within those bounds through the options’ expiration. However, given the weak Canadian data and negative sentiment, we must also consider the possibility of a breakout. For those positioning for a move higher, buying near-term call options with a 1.3700 strike offers a way to participate in a potential rally with a clearly defined and limited risk. This would serve as a hedge against range-bound strategies or as a pure speculative play on a break of the long-term resistance.

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EUR/JPY reduced its daily losses but stayed negative, trading near 184.00 in early European hours on Monday. The daily chart shows consolidation, with price moving inside a horizontal channel. The 14-day RSI is 55.38, above the midline, pointing to positive momentum without overbought conditions. Price is supported by a cluster of the nine- and 50-day EMAs around 183.70–183.10.

Key Technical Levels

The pair rebounded from last week’s dip towards 181.00 and is trading above the recent swing area. Upside levels include the channel top near 185.90, then the all-time high at 186.88 from 23 January. On the downside, support is at the nine-day EMA at 183.69, then the 50-day EMA at 183.07. A break below these levels could open 180.81, the two-month low from 12 February, near the channel floor around 180.50. If losses extend, the bias could turn bearish and bring focus to the four-month low area at 175.70. The EUR/JPY is holding firm above key moving averages around 183.70, suggesting that buyers are stepping in on any weakness. This consolidation phase presents an opportunity for derivative traders to consider strategies that profit from either a continued range or an upward breakout. We see this as a time to position for a potential move toward the 185.90 resistance.

Derivative Strategy Considerations

Supporting the euro’s strength, the latest Eurozone inflation data from late February 2026 came in at 2.8%, slightly hotter than anticipated. This reduces the pressure on the European Central Bank to consider rate cuts in the near term. This policy divergence is a key reason we’ve seen the pair find strong support on dips throughout early 2026. On the yen side, expectations for a significant policy tightening by the Bank of Japan are fading again. Japan’s national CPI for February 2026 registered at 2.2%, missing forecasts and suggesting a lack of sustained inflationary pressure. This situation reminds us of the slow pace of normalization we observed throughout 2025, which kept the yen weak against most major currencies. Given this fundamental backdrop, selling out-of-the-money put options with strike prices below the key 183.00 support level could be a viable strategy in the coming weeks. This approach allows traders to collect premium while the pair consolidates, with the strong support zone providing a buffer against declines. The goal is to capitalize on the pair not breaking down significantly from current levels. For those anticipating a break of the consolidation range, buying call options with a strike price above 185.00 could capture a move toward the January high of 186.88. This strategy would benefit directly if the positive momentum described by the RSI translates into a fresh rally. Watching for a daily close above the 185.90 channel boundary would be the trigger for such a trade. However, we must remain disciplined and watch the 50-day EMA at 183.07 as a critical line in the sand. A decisive break below this level would invalidate the bullish short-term outlook and could trigger a slide toward the 180.80 area. Any derivative position should have a clear plan for managing risk if this support fails. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF rose to about 0.7695 in early European trading on Monday, nearing 0.7700 as the US Dollar strengthened against the Swiss Franc. The move followed hotter US January Producer Price Index (PPI) data, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady at its March meeting. US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed headline PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in January, up from 0.4% in December and above the 0.3% forecast. Core PPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, versus 0.6% previously and above the 0.3% forecast.

Fed Policy Outlook

Markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged until the summer. The US President has called for lower rates. The Swiss Franc found some support from demand for safe-haven assets after joint US-Israeli strikes in Iran were reported to have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US combat operations in Iran were said to be continuing. Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, said Iran would not negotiate with the US, according to Bloomberg. Traders are awaiting the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, due later Monday. We remember this time last year when strong US producer price data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s case for keeping interest rates elevated. This policy divergence was a primary driver pushing the USD/CHF pair higher, as the market priced in a more aggressive Fed compared to other central banks. The focus on US inflation and rate policy proved to be the dominant market theme.

Shift In Market Drivers

Even with the major geopolitical shock from the joint US-Israeli strikes in Iran during 2025, the Swiss Franc’s traditional role as a safe haven was muted. The market showed us that the powerful trend of US interest rate policy can often overwhelm short-term flights to safety. This taught us that the direction of the Fed can be the most important factor for this pair. Looking at the situation today, we see a very different picture as we head into the spring of 2026. Recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January 2026 showed inflation cooling to 2.9%, and last week’s initial jobless claims ticked up to 225,000. This data suggests the US economy is finally slowing, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts later this year. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is now sounding more hawkish after Swiss inflation unexpectedly held firm at 1.8% year-over-year in the latest February report. This is a significant reversal from 2025, when the Fed’s actions were the main story. Now, the SNB’s reluctance to cut rates is providing independent strength to the franc. Given this evolving dynamic, traders should consider buying USD/CHF put options with expirations in the next one to three months. This strategy allows for profiting from a potential decline in the pair as US rate cut expectations build against a steady SNB. Implied volatility for the pair is currently hovering around 8.5%, reflecting the market’s uncertainty about the timing of central bank moves. We must remain watchful of the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report due this Friday for any signs of renewed economic strength. A much stronger-than-expected jobs number could temporarily reverse the dollar’s slide. Therefore, a tactical approach using bearish option spreads, such as a put spread, could help manage risk by capping both potential profits and upfront costs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Commerzbank said rising tensions in the Middle East raise the risk of an oil supply shock, which can pressure EUR/USD. It pointed to the US role as a reserve currency, the US being a net oil exporter, and the euro area being a net oil importer. It said a sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would affect the global economy. Higher oil prices can improve US terms of trade, which can lift the real effective US dollar exchange rate.

Us Resilience Versus Euro Area Vulnerability

Commerzbank said markets may expect the US economy to cope better with an oil shock than the euro area. It added that the Federal Reserve could respond to oil-driven inflation with larger rate rises than the ECB, which may face weaker growth. It said there is a risk the US and its allies could be drawn into a longer war. It noted that an extended blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sustained oil price shock, similar to after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It cited Brent crude rising from around USD 100 per barrel to nearly USD 140 at that time. It also cited EUR/USD falling from around 1.13 in February to as low as 0.95 in September, before oil prices started to fall from mid-year. Given the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the risk of an oil supply shock is growing, which supports a stronger Dollar against the Euro. Brent crude has already surged past $115 a barrel in the last two weeks, creating a clear negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair. The market is increasingly pricing in the risk of a sustained disruption to global energy supplies.

Trading Implications For Eur Usd

Since the United States is a net oil exporter, rising oil prices improve its terms of trade and strengthen the real effective value of the Dollar. In contrast, the Euro area is a net importer of energy, meaning higher oil costs weaken its economy and its currency. Late 2025 data from Eurostat confirmed the region’s energy import dependency remains above 60%, highlighting this vulnerability. An oil price shock is a burden for any economy, but we believe the US economy will prove more resilient than the Euro area’s. This view is supported by recent data showing robust US GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025, which contrasts sharply with February’s slowing manufacturing PMIs across the Eurozone. This divergence suggests the US can better absorb the economic impact. This dynamic implies the US Federal Reserve could respond to oil-driven inflation with more aggressive interest rate hikes than the European Central Bank. The ECB would have to be more cautious, balancing inflation against a weakening economy. Recent commentary from Fed officials has maintained a hawkish tone, while ECB members have expressed growing concern over the industrial slowdown. We only need to look back to the period after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 for a clear precedent. At that time, Brent crude prices climbed from around $100 to nearly $140 per barrel. In the following months, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell from approximately 1.13 to a low of 0.95 by September of that year. A sustained conflict could block major shipping lanes for an extended period, leading to a prolonged oil price shock. In this environment, traders should consider positioning for a weaker EUR/USD. Buying put options on the Euro or establishing bear put spreads could be effective strategies to capitalize on the potential downside in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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