Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Brent crude rose after US-Israel strikes on Iran, which led to a new war in the Middle East. Brent traded above USD 80/bbl in Asia and was compared with last June’s USD 80 peak. On Sun (1 Mar), Brent spiked 10% to US$80/bbl. It later opened Asia trade with a 12% jump above a US$81 opening price. At 7:30am SGT, Brent was at US$79.39, up US$6.52 or 8.9%. Some analysts said it could climb as high as US$100 after the strikes. In an OPEC+ meeting on Sun (1 Mar), the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to raise output by 206,000 barrels in Apr. This was faster than the 137,000 barrels increase made in Dec. The dataset links a sustained move above last June’s USD 80/bbl high with renewed risk aversion. It also associates this with weaker Asian equities and regional currencies. The article says it was created with help from an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. With Brent crude spiking over 10% on the back of military strikes in Iran, we are seeing a massive surge in market volatility. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has likely jumped over 40%, its highest level since the market turmoil of early 2024. This signals that options premiums are expanding, making it an opportune time to buy straddles or strangles to trade the explosive price swings we expect. The direct escalation in the Middle East presents a clear threat to supply, making bullish positions on oil attractive despite the high entry point. We are likely to see traders buying May and June call options on Brent and WTI futures to bet on prices climbing toward the $100/bbl mark. This situation is reminiscent of the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which caused a temporary but sharp spike, and reports already suggest shipping insurance premiums through the Strait of Hormuz have doubled overnight. This oil shock is a classic risk-off signal for the wider market, which will likely weigh on Asian economies that are heavily reliant on energy imports. We should consider taking short positions in Asian equity indices and long positions in the US dollar against currencies like the Japanese yen and South Korean won. A flight to safety is already evident, with the US 10-year Treasury yield dropping this morning, a typical reaction during periods of geopolitical stress. However, the small OPEC+ output increase of 206,000 barrels per day is a signal that producers may want to cap the rally to avoid demand destruction. Given the soft global manufacturing data we saw at the end of 2025, a sustained period of oil prices above $85/bbl could easily tip fragile economies into recession. This makes selling into this strength or buying put options a viable contrarian strategy for those who believe the geopolitical panic will subside.

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USD/CAD traded near 1.3660 in Asian hours on Monday, holding above 1.3650 after small losses in the prior session. The move came as the US Dollar rose on safe-haven demand linked to rising Middle East tensions, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI due later in the day. Further gains in USD/CAD may be limited if the Canadian Dollar gets support from higher oil prices, as Canada is the biggest oil exporter to the United States. West Texas Intermediate was volatile and traded around $71.50. WTI opened with a gap up after the Iranian IRGC Navy announced a stoppage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 20% of global oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is the fourth-largest producer in OPEC. Israel carried out heavy strikes on Beirut after Hezbollah fired missiles across the border early Monday, after US-Israel attacks on Iran over the weekend reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Israeli military also issued evacuation orders for several Lebanese towns. US President Donald Trump said hundreds of targets were hit, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defence systems, nine vessels, and naval infrastructure. Fed Governor Mi Lan called for interest rate cuts as soon as possible, citing subdued underlying price pressures and measurement distortions. Given the escalating conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we should anticipate extreme market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been hovering around a relatively calm 15 for most of early 2026, is likely to surge past 30, a level not sustained since the banking turmoil of 2023. Traders should consider buying options, such as straddles or strangles, on major indices to profit from this expected spike in price swings. The initial jump in WTI crude to $71.50 is likely just the start of a major repricing event. Historically, supply shocks of this magnitude cause prices to multiply; for instance, during the 1990 Gulf War, oil prices more than doubled in just a few months. Purchasing out-of-the-money call options on WTI and Brent futures for the coming months is a direct strategy to capitalize on the expected surge toward and possibly beyond $100 per barrel. For the USD/CAD pair, the situation creates a difficult tug-of-war, making directional spot trades very risky. The US Dollar will attract strong safe-haven bids, but a skyrocketing oil price provides a powerful tailwind for the Canadian Dollar. We should therefore focus on options strategies that benefit from a large move in either direction, as the fundamental case for which currency will dominate is unclear. The Fed’s position introduces another layer of uncertainty, reminiscent of the stagflationary pressures of the 1970s. A governor’s call for rate cuts clashes directly with the inflationary shock from a potential energy crisis, which could send headline CPI well above the 2.8% annual rate reported for January 2026. This conflict suggests significant volatility in interest rate futures, making options on SOFR contracts an attractive way to trade the Fed’s impending policy dilemma. This combined geopolitical and energy crisis poses a significant threat to global growth and corporate earnings. We saw during past oil shocks, like the one in 2008, that they often precede economic recessions. Consequently, buying put options on equity indices like the S&P 500 is a prudent hedge against the probable downturn in stock markets.

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The macroeconomic backdrop is straightforward, though far from reassuring. Market participants are looking for evidence of softer labour conditions without triggering another wave of inflationary pressure. This week’s economic releases will determine whether expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions gather momentum or slip back into uncertainty.

There are already indications that the labour market is easing at the margins. US job vacancies declined to their lowest level in over five years in December, reinforcing the view that demand for workers is moderating. This places particular emphasis on Friday’s payrolls report and wage figures.

Inflation expectations also remain in focus. Even with the Consumer Price Index release still a week away, markets often adjust positioning early if employment data provides a decisive signal.

Why it matters: Expectations surrounding Federal Reserve rate cuts shape the direction of the USDX, which in turn tends to influence XAUUSD and overall risk sentiment.

Oil Climbs Above $80 As Hormuz Disruption Fears Intensify

This stage of the week often brings heightened sensitivity in energy markets. Oil prices do not require confirmed supply disruptions to rally. It is sufficient for traders to perceive an elevated risk of interruption, and that perception alone can sustain support for USOIL beyond the initial headlines.

Rising oil prices risk delivering a fresh inflation shock to Japan, complicating Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s efforts to ease cost-of-living pressures, according to Monex Group’s Jesper Koll https://t.co/1yZ4fMrtHG

— Bloomberg (@business) March 2, 2026

Stronger crude prices are significant because they feed into inflation expectations and tighten financial conditions. They may also alter how markets assess the timing and scale of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, even if labour data shows signs of weakness.

Gold behaves differently under such conditions. XAUUSD is typically viewed as a hedge. When geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty increases, inflows into gold can materialise before economic data is released. Provided the US dollar remains contained, this support may continue.

Should oil maintain its premium, markets may scale back expectations for rate reductions, generating two-way volatility in XAUUSD.

Market Movements Of The Week

Gold (XAUUSD)

– XAUUSD bid on geopolitics, with 5455 defining extension risk.
– XAUUSD may pause if USDX breaks above 98.651 after wages surprise.
– XAUUSD reacts hardest to NFP as Fed rate cut expectations reset into next week.

Oil (USOUSD)

– USOUSD holds a risk premium, with 71.181 the breakout level on Iran headlines.
– USOUSD volatility stays elevated while traders price disruption risk through the Strait of Hormuz.
– USOUSD strength can tighten conditions and complicate Fed rate cut expectations into payrolls.

US Dollar Index (USDX)

– USDX rejected 98.10 and now ranges, with 98.50 the next area on a push higher.
– USDX above 98.651 invalidates bearish setups and can pressure XAUUSD intraday.
– USDX direction will follow payrolls and wages as Fed rate cut expectations stay sensitive.

S&P 500 (SP500)

– SP500 downside opens if 6777.90 breaks during NFP volatility.
– SP500 can struggle if USOil stays bid and the market trims Fed rate cut expectations.
– SP500 weakness can keep XAUUSD supported through hedge demand.

Key Events This Week

2 March 2026

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Forecast: 51.7, Previous: 52,6

A softer print can rebuild Fed rate cut expectations and keep USDX heavy into Friday’s labour data.

4 March 2026

1. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb), Forecast: 49K, Previous: 22K

Early labour signals that can shift Fed rate cut expectations into Friday.

2. US ISM Services PMI (Feb), Forecast: 53.5, Previous: 53.8

Services strength can keep the Fed cautious and support USDX.

6 March 2026

1. US Nonfarm Payroll, Forecast: 58K, Previous: 130K

The main trigger for Fed rate cut expectations, USDX direction, and SP500 volatility.

2. US Unemployment Rate, Forecast: 4.30%, Previous: 4.30%

A surprise rise can hit SP500 and lift demand for XAUUSD hedges.

3. Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb), Forecast: 0.30%, Previous: 0.40%

Sticky wages can trim Fed rate cut expectations fast and cap gold’s follow-through.

Bottom Line

XAUUSD begins the week underpinned by geopolitical tension and continued demand for defensive positioning. The key question is whether rate cut expectations strengthen following the US employment report, or whether wage growth compels the Federal Reserve to remain cautious.

Oil remains the decisive variable. If USOIL sustains its elevated levels, inflation pressures could persist, complicating the timing of the initial rate cut even with softer payroll data.

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Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:

Please note:
• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.
• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.
• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.
• Please ensure that all take-profit and stop-loss settings are adjusted before the rollover occurs.
• All internal transfers for accounts under the same name will be prohibited during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading hours on the rollover dates.

The above data is for reference only. The actual rollover date shall be subject to the Liquidity Provider’s determination.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Details:

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss, and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.
3. During the maintenance period, VT Markets APP will not be available. It is recommended that you avoid using it during the maintenance.

The above data is for reference only. Please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

WTI（西德克萨斯中质原油，美国原油基准）周三走低至约65.45美元，跌近1.25%。美国数据和OPEC+（石油输出国组织及其盟友）关于供应的信号，引发市场对“供应过多”的担忧。 美国EIA（能源信息署，美国官方能源数据机构）数据显示，上周原油库存增加了1598.9万桶。这扭转了此前901.4万桶的下降，也是自2023年2月以来最大的单周增加。

市场为伊朗谈判做准备

市场也在为周四于日内瓦举行的美伊核谈（美国与伊朗就核问题的谈判）提前布局。若谈判破裂，在美国在当地增派兵力（军事力量增加）的背景下，可能提高美国采取军事行动的风险。 任何升级都可能扰乱霍尔木兹海峡（中东重要石油运输通道）的运输，从而推高WTI。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周二在国情咨文演讲中表示，他更倾向于通过外交方式处理伊朗问题。 伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐周二表示，德黑兰（伊朗首都）准备采取措施，与美国达成协议。 路透社周三报道称，沙特阿拉伯正在提高石油产量和出口，以防一旦美国可能对伊朗发动打击导致地区供应中断，能进行补充。

Opec Plus供应信号转变

另外，OPEC+代表预计在3月1日会议上，恢复小幅增产。路透社援引三位消息人士称，该联盟可能考虑在4月把产量提高约13.7万桶/日（每天）。

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WTI diniagakan lebih rendah pada hari Rabu sekitar $65.45, turun hampir 1.25%, selepas data AS dan isyarat bekalan OPEC+ menaikkan kebimbangan lebihan bekalan (bekalan terlalu banyak berbanding permintaan). Angka Pentadbiran Maklumat Tenaga AS (EIA, agensi kerajaan yang menerbitkan data tenaga) menunjukkan inventori minyak mentah (stok simpanan minyak) meningkat 15.989 juta tong minggu lalu. Ini membalikkan pengurangan 9.014 juta tong sebelum ini dan merupakan peningkatan mingguan terbesar sejak Februari 2023.

Pasaran Bersedia Untuk Rundingan Iran

Pasaran juga mengambil posisi (menyusun pegangan dagangan lebih awal) menjelang rundingan nuklear AS-Iran yang dijadualkan di Geneva pada Khamis. Jika rundingan gagal, risiko tindakan ketenteraan AS boleh meningkat ketika tentera Amerika ditambah di rantau itu. Sebarang peningkatan ketegangan boleh mengganggu aliran bekalan melalui Selat Hormuz (laluan sempit penting untuk penghantaran minyak) dan menaikkan WTI. Presiden AS Donald Trump berkata dalam ucapan State of the Union (ucapan tahunan rasmi kepada negara) pada Selasa bahawa beliau lebih memilih diplomasi (rundingan) mengenai Iran. Menteri Luar Iran Abbas Araghchi berkata pada Selasa bahawa Tehran bersedia mengambil langkah untuk mencapai perjanjian dengan AS. Reuters melaporkan pada Rabu bahawa Arab Saudi meningkatkan pengeluaran dan eksport minyak sebagai langkah berjaga-jaga jika kemungkinan serangan AS ke atas Iran mengganggu bekalan serantau.

Isyarat Bekalan Opec Plus Berubah

Secara berasingan, wakil OPEC+ (gabungan negara OPEC dan sekutu) menjangka peningkatan bekalan kecil akan disambung semula pada mesyuarat kumpulan itu pada 1 Mac. Reuters memetik tiga sumber berkata pakatan itu mungkin mempertimbangkan menaikkan pengeluaran kira-kira 137,000 tong sehari pada April. Cipta akaun langsung VT Markets anda dan mula berdagang sekarang.

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美元/日元（USD/JPY）周三在156.30附近交易，上涨0.26%。日元对美元继续走弱。由于市场对日本央行（BoJ，指日本的中央银行）未来加息（提高利率）路径不确定，汇价延续上行。 当地媒体称，首相早苗高市在上周与日本央行行长植田和男会面时，对继续加息表示怀疑。植田表示会谈涉及更广泛的经济与金融状况，但市场将相关报道解读为：日本央行的政策正常化（从超低利率等宽松政策逐步回到更“正常”的利率水平）可能会更慢。

日本央行信号与市场定价

东一郎浅田与佐藤绫乃被提名进入日本央行政策委员会（负责制定货币政策的决策层），两人都被认为更倾向于再通胀（通过更宽松政策让通胀回升）与更宽松的政策立场。市场目前预计到4月日本央行大约会进一步收紧（更偏向加息或减少宽松）15个基点（bp，利率单位：1个基点=0.01%，15bp=0.15个百分点）。 MUFG表示，日本央行能否达到这些市场预期会影响日元走势；如果副行长氷见野伸一传递谨慎（偏鸽派，指更倾向维持低利率、行动更慢）的信息，可能会加剧日元抛售。Rabobank认为整体政策倾向不太可能改变，并预计未来几个月USD/JPY会下跌。 USD/JPY上涨时，美元指数（US Dollar Index，衡量美元对一篮子主要货币强弱的指标）当日仍偏弱。该货币对走高更多由日元走弱推动，而不是美元整体走强。

期权仓位与干预风险

这一走势仍在延续，USD/JPY目前在161.50附近交易。日本央行1月象征性加息10个基点（0.10个百分点），同时给出非常谨慎的指引（前瞻指引，指央行对未来政策走向的表态），反而加快了日元抛售。最新1月全国CPI（消费者物价指数，用来衡量通胀）为1.9%，略低于日本央行目标，因此采取强硬行动的压力不大。 在这种情况下，交易者可考虑买入USD/JPY看涨期权（call option，赋予在到期前以约定价格买入的权利）来参与进一步上涨，同时控制风险。隐含波动率（implied volatility，期权价格反映的市场对未来波动的预期）仍处高位；日元波动率指数在11.5附近，显示市场对政策变化速度的不确定性仍高。这使看涨价差（call spread，同时买入较低行权价看涨期权并卖出较高行权价看涨期权，用来降低权利金成本但限制最大收益）等策略更有吸引力，以减少前期权利金（premium，买期权支付的费用）支出。 未来几周的主要风险仍是日本财务省可能进行口头或实际干预（通过声明或直接进场买卖外汇影响汇率），尤其当汇价升破160附近时。为防止多头仓位（long position，押注汇率上涨的持仓）遇到突然下跌，交易者可买入便宜的深度虚值USD/JPY看跌期权（out-of-the-money put，行权价远低于现价、价格较低的看跌期权），相当于给仓位买保险，以应对日本当局意外出手推动本币升值的情况。 创建你的VT Markets真实账户 并 立即开始交易。

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USD/JPY diniagakan berhampiran 156.30 pada Rabu, naik 0.26%, apabila Yen Jepun kekal lemah berbanding Dolar AS. Pasangan ini meneruskan kenaikan kerana ketidaktentuan tentang hala tuju kadar faedah Bank of Japan (BoJ) iaitu bank pusat Jepun. Media tempatan melaporkan Perdana Menteri Sanae Takaichi menyuarakan keraguan tentang kenaikan kadar seterusnya dalam mesyuarat minggu lalu dengan Gabenor BoJ Kazuo Ueda. Ueda berkata perbincangan meliputi keadaan ekonomi dan kewangan secara umum, namun pasaran menafsir laporan itu sebagai tanda proses “normalisasi dasar” (kembali kepada dasar lebih ketat selepas dasar longgar) akan menjadi lebih perlahan.

Isyarat BoJ Dan Jangkaan Pasaran

Toichiro Asada dan Ayano Sato dicalonkan ke lembaga dasar BoJ, dan kedua-duanya dilihat cenderung kepada “reflasi” (dasar untuk menaikkan semula inflasi dan pertumbuhan) serta dasar lebih mudah (dasar kewangan lebih longgar). Pasaran kini menjangka kira-kira 15 mata asas pengetatan menjelang April (mata asas ialah 0.01%, jadi 15 mata asas = 0.15%). MUFG berkata keupayaan BoJ untuk memenuhi jangkaan ini boleh mempengaruhi Yen, dan mesej berhati-hati daripada Timbalan Gabenor Shinichi Himino boleh menambah tekanan jualan JPY. Rabobank berkata kecenderungan dasar keseluruhan tidak mungkin berubah dan menjangka USD/JPY menurun dalam beberapa bulan akan datang. Kenaikan USD/JPY berlaku walaupun Indeks Dolar AS lebih lemah pada hari tersebut. Kenaikan pasangan ini lebih didorong oleh kelemahan Yen berbanding kekuatan Dolar AS secara menyeluruh.

Kedudukan Opsyen Dan Risiko Campur Tangan

Trend ini berterusan, dengan USD/JPY kini diniagakan sekitar 161.50. Kenaikan kecil 10 mata asas BoJ pada Januari (kenaikan minimum) disertai panduan yang sangat berhati-hati sehingga mempercepat jualan yen. Dengan data CPI (Indeks Harga Pengguna, ukuran inflasi) negara bagi Januari pada 1.9%, sedikit di bawah sasaran BoJ, tekanan untuk bertindak tegas adalah rendah. Dalam keadaan ini, pedagang boleh mempertimbangkan membeli opsyen panggilan (call options, hak untuk membeli pada harga tertentu) USD/JPY untuk mendapat untung jika harga terus naik sambil mengawal risiko. Volatiliti tersirat (jangkaan turun naik harga yang “terbaca” dalam harga opsyen) kekal tinggi, dengan indeks volatiliti yen sekitar 11.5, mencerminkan ketidaktentuan tentang kelajuan perubahan dasar. Ini menjadikan strategi seperti call spread (gabungan beli call dan jual call pada paras lain) menarik untuk mengurangkan kos awal premium (bayaran opsyen). Kelemahan yen begitu ketara hingga menenggelamkan masalah dolar AS sendiri. Laporan pekerjaan AS terbaru menunjukkan non-farm payrolls (jumlah pekerjaan baharu di luar sektor pertanian) yang lebih lemah daripada jangkaan iaitu 150,000, menyebabkan Indeks Dolar AS (DXY) kekal lemah di bawah 103.00. Namun, perbezaan kadar faedah yang sangat besar menyebabkan yen terus jatuh walaupun dolar semakin lemah. Risiko utama dalam beberapa minggu akan datang ialah campur tangan secara kenyataan atau tindakan terus daripada Kementerian Kewangan, terutama apabila pasangan ini bergerak melepasi paras 160. Untuk melindungi posisi beli daripada kejatuhan mendadak, pedagang boleh membeli opsyen jual (put, hak untuk menjual pada harga tertentu) USD/JPY yang murah dan “out-of-the-money” (harga sasaran opsyen jauh daripada harga semasa, jadi lebih murah). Ini berfungsi seperti insurans terhadap sebarang langkah mengejut pihak berkuasa Jepun untuk menguatkan mata wang mereka. Buka akaun langsung VT Markets anda dan mula berdagang sekarang.

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