Nordea’s Helge Pedersen says Denmark’s inflation fell to 0.8% year on year after an electricity tax cut, easing pressure on households
Danish inflation fell to 0.8% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% in December. The drop was mainly due to a cut in the electricity tax to the EU minimum. The tax fell from 90 øre per kWh (incl. VAT) to close to 1 øre per kWh (incl. VAT). The EU minimum is also listed as 0.8 øre per kWh.
Denmark’s EU-harmonised inflation rate was 0.6% in January. The eurozone rate was 2.3% in December.
Despite supportive macro conditions, gold steadied near $5,035 but failed to extend beyond $5,000 amid subdued trading
Gold traded near $5,035 on Tuesday after briefly slipping below $5,000 in early Asian trading. Trading was quiet. Rising global stocks pressured prices, but a weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields helped limit the downside.
Gold is roughly 10% below its late-January high near $5,600, after a drop of about 21%. Traders largely ignored the US Retail Sales report. Attention now turns to the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.
Key Data And Market Drivers
US Retail Sales were flat (0.0% month-on-month) in December, below expectations of 0.4%, after a 0.6% rise in November. Sales rose 2.4% year-on-year, down from 3.3% previously. The Control Group slipped 0.1% after a 0.2% gain. China has urged domestic banks to cut exposure to US Treasuries, according to Bloomberg. The 10-year US yield hovered near 4.18%, while the DXY was around 96.90 after hitting a one-week low. Markets are pricing in nearly 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. Economists expect 70K US jobs added in January, up from 50K in December. US-Iran tensions remain elevated, and US ships were advised to stay “as far as possible” from the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. On the charts, RSI is near 56 and ADX is around 13.5. Resistance sits at $5,050–$5,100, while support is near $5,000. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. Gold is consolidating around $5,000 after a sharp correction, and traders appear cautious ahead of major data releases. Volatility is still high, which has pushed option premiums up. In this type of market, defined-risk option-selling strategies can be more attractive than buying options outright.Options Strategies Into High Volatility
The long-term case for gold remains supported by concerns about currency debasement. Central banks set records for gold purchases in 2022 and 2023 as a hedge against rising US debt, which has now exceeded $40 trillion. This ongoing official demand can help support prices, which makes aggressive bearish positions riskier. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are also supportive. With markets pricing nearly 50 basis points of easing, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold falls. In this environment, deeper pullbacks can look like potential buying opportunities. Over the next few weeks, one approach is to sell out-of-the-money put spreads with strikes below the key $5,000 support level. This strategy collects premium while taking a cautious bullish-to-neutral view, using both elevated volatility and strong psychological support. The trade profits if gold stays above the short strike through expiration, which fits the current technical and fundamental setup. For traders who expect the range to hold, a bear call spread above the $5,100 resistance zone is another defined-risk option. It takes advantage of high option premiums and profits if gold fails to break higher in the near term. This offers a way to fade upside momentum without taking unlimited risk. With Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI approaching, implied volatility is likely to stay elevated. That makes long straddles or strangles a costly way to trade a breakout. A more cautious approach may be to wait for the data. Volatility often falls after major releases, which can favor the credit spread strategies discussed above. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Elliott Wave analysis suggests TeraWulf’s bitcoin mining stock could rally toward $20 before pulling back
TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) is a Bitcoin mining and technology company. This article reviews its weekly Elliott Wave pattern and the current breakout setup.
From the 2023 low, the share price formed a three-wave rise. Wave I ended at $9.30, Wave II dropped to $2.06, and Wave III climbed to $17.05.
Wave IV then finished at $10.47. The price is now moving higher in Wave V of (I), with a target range of $18.6–$21.1.
To keep this setup valid, the price must stay above the December 2025 low of $11.13. A move below $11.13 would weaken the current bullish structure.
After Wave (I) ends, the analysis expects a larger Wave II pullback. After that, it anticipates a return to the weekly uptrend in Wave (III).
The strategy focuses on entering after corrective pullbacks. It highlights 3-, 7-, or 11-swing corrections and a “Blue Box” tool used to spot likely reversal zones.
Based on the current structure, TeraWulf appears to be continuing its fifth-wave rally from the $10.47 low. This move also has support from Bitcoin’s push above $95,000, helped by steady institutional inflows into spot ETFs, which topped $5 billion last month alone. The near-term path still points to the $18.60 to $21.10 target zone in the coming weeks.
For derivatives traders, this may create an opportunity to use call options to target the expected final move higher. Given the target zone, call options with $20 or $22.50 strikes and March or April 2026 expirations could provide leveraged exposure to the rally. Traders should also watch for fading momentum as the stock reaches the target area.
As price moves into the $18.60–$21.10 range, the analysis suggests Wave (I) could top out, followed by a large corrective pullback. Traders may want to prepare to shift tactics, potentially using put options once the uptrend shows clear signs of exhaustion. This larger correction, expected later this year, could set up the next major buying opportunity.
The bullish outlook stays intact as long as the stock holds above the key $11.13 low from December 2025. A break below this level would invalidate the current wave count and suggest a deeper correction is already underway. This price level is important for risk management on any long positions.
It also helps to keep the bigger picture in mind: mining stocks have rallied strongly since the 2024 Bitcoin halving. TeraWulf’s 2025 performance reflected that trend, though high network difficulty is still a risk to monitor. The current setup continues that powerful move, which now appears to be nearing a temporary peak.
In November, U.S. business inventories rose 0.1%, below the 0.2% forecast, data show
US business inventories rose 0.1% in November, below the 0.2% forecast.
This points to slower stock-building by firms during the month. It follows earlier inventory gains and could influence near-term production plans.
Implications For Orders And Growth
A smaller inventory increase can affect how companies place new orders and manage supply. It can also influence estimates for quarterly economic growth. The November 2025 report, showing inventories up 0.1%, was an early warning sign. It suggested businesses were seeing weaker demand than expected and were reluctant to add stock. We now view it as the start of a cooling trend that has continued into the new year. That trend was reinforced by last week’s data. January 2026 retail sales fell 0.4%, missing expectations for no change. This supports the idea that last year’s inventory caution was justified, as consumer demand is softening. Markets are now pricing in a higher chance of an economic slowdown over the next quarter. In the coming weeks, we are taking a more defensive stance by buying put options on broad market indices such as the SPX. This can help protect against a market drop if companies issue weaker earnings guidance. We are also buying puts on consumer discretionary ETFs, since these firms are most exposed to a pullback in spending.Rates Volatility And Hedging Positioning
Weaker economic data also shifts the outlook for interest rates and makes a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year more likely. For that reason, we are buying call options on 2-year and 10-year Treasury note futures. These positions can gain if bond prices rise as investors anticipate a more supportive Fed stance. Historically, similar inventory slowdowns have often come before higher market volatility. In 2019, for example, inventories softened before the VIX began a steady rise from its lows. As a result, adding long volatility exposure through options on the VIX index may be a sensible hedge for the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Societe Generale says higher Norwegian inflation boosts the krone, casting doubt on further Norges Bank rate cuts
Norway’s stronger-than-expected inflation has supported the Norwegian Krone and raised questions about any further easing from Norges Bank. Front-end yields moved higher after both CPI and core inflation came in above forecasts.
EUR/NOK is trading near key support. Last week’s low was 11.3610, and the pre-Liberation Day low was 11.2614. The move follows the inflation surprise and the shift in rate-cut expectations.
Inflation Surprise Lifts Krone
CPI rose to 3.6% year on year in January, up from 3.2% in December, versus a 3.0% consensus forecast. Core inflation rose to 3.4% from 3.1%. In its January statement, Norges Bank said inflation was too high. The article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. This jump in Norwegian inflation changes our view. With both headline and core inflation beating forecasts, the market’s expectation of a near-term Norges Bank rate cut is fading fast. We should prepare for a central bank that is more likely to keep rates unchanged, or even signal a hike. For FX options, this supports a stronger NOK versus the euro in the weeks ahead. We should consider buying EUR/NOK puts or using put spreads to target a break below the 11.36 and 11.26 support levels. Higher front-end yield volatility may push option premiums up, which can make defined-risk strategies more appealing. In rates, the rise in front-end yields shows the market is repricing the expected path for Norges Bank. We can use short-term interest rate swaps or forward rate agreements to position for policy rates staying higher for longer. This directly reflects the view that rate-cut expectations were too early.Positioning For Higher For Longer
We saw a similar pattern in early 2025. Core inflation stayed sticky and well above 4.5% even as the market tried to price in cuts. At the time, Norges Bank held its 4.50% policy rate, and the Krone rallied. That example from last year suggests we should not underestimate the central bank’s resolve again. A tight labor market also supports a more hawkish stance, with unemployment staying below 4% through the end of last year. Focus now shifts to the next Norges Bank meeting in March to see if the message turns more clearly hawkish. Any positions should be planned with that key date in mind. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Danske Bank says the ECB will hold rates at 2.00% until 2027, citing resilient markets and balance sheets
For a fifth straight meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde pointed to strong labour markets and solid balance sheets. She also played down both inflation running below the 2% target and the strength of the euro.
Analysts at Danske Bank expect the ECB to keep the policy rate at 2.0% throughout 2026 and 2027. They also forecast that both headline and core inflation will average below 2% in 2026 and 2027.
Rates Outlook Remains Anchored
The analysts expect steady economic growth to continue in 2026 and 2027. Even with inflation below target, they still see the ECB leaning toward keeping the deposit rate unchanged. The article says it was created with help from an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. It also says FXStreet Insights Team content is a set of selected market observations, including notes from commercial sources and from internal and external analysts. With the ECB holding its key policy rate at 2.00% for a fifth meeting in a row, the message is stability. By focusing on strong labour markets instead of below-target inflation, the ECB signals it is not eager to change course soon. For traders, the main theme in the coming weeks is predictability. Recent data supports this steady view. Eurozone inflation for January came in at 1.8%, still below the 2% target. Meanwhile, unemployment released last week stayed at a multi-year low of 6.3%. This mix of soft inflation and a strong job market gives the ECB room to stay on hold for an extended period.Trading Implications Across Markets
In 2025, the year was defined by a “long pause” after the aggressive rate-hike cycle ended in 2024. This long period of stability has pushed volatility lower in interest rate markets. We expect that to continue, which can be difficult for traders who depend on large moves in rates. In interest rate derivatives, this setup favors strategies that benefit from low volatility. Examples include selling strangles on EURIBOR or Bund futures. If rates stay anchored, option premiums may erode over time. There also appears to be limited risk of a surprise ECB move at the March meeting. In currency markets, the focus shifts to policy differences between central banks. The US Federal Reserve is also on hold, but it faces different growth and inflation conditions. That backdrop supports range-trading ideas in EUR/USD. Options strategies that set a defined range, such as an iron condor, could benefit if the pair stays stable. For equity derivatives, a steady rate environment is generally supportive for stocks. With borrowing costs stable and growth described as decent, the backdrop for equities looks firm. One way to express that view is by selling out-of-the-money puts on major European indices to collect premium, assuming there is no sharp market sell-off. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Commerzbank says copper and base metals fell as China’s demand influence waned and Shanghai speculation increased
Copper and other base metals have slipped from recent highs after a strong run-up. The London Metal Exchange index was near 5,400, about 4% below its record high at the end of January.
Trading may slow ahead of the Chinese New Year. Stock exchanges will close starting next Monday. A Mysteel survey found some copper firms in southern China stopped production at the end of January and do not plan to restart until March.
China’s share of global metal demand growth has fallen compared with pre-pandemic years. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates China made up about 60% of the increase in metal demand from 2020 to 2025, versus 137% from 2008 to 2020.
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a record above RMB 100,000 per ton in late January, equal to more than USD 15,000 per ton. That move also helped lift prices on the London Metal Exchange.
The rally happened alongside a sharp jump in open contracts for copper futures and options in Shanghai, which reached a multi-year high. Over the past 10 days, open interest has dropped back to around last year’s average.
Since the end of January, Shanghai copper has fallen 4.5%, which has also pressured London copper. The article notes it was produced with an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
As of today, February 10, 2026, copper prices are pulling back from recent highs. Traders should watch this pattern closely. LME copper is trading near $9,800 per tonne after peaking above $10,200 in late January, adding uncertainty to the market. This pullback is happening just before the Chinese New Year holiday, a period that usually slows trading.
A similar setup appeared in early 2025. A speculative rally on the Shanghai exchange pushed copper to record levels, followed by a fast drop. The surge was driven by a quick rise in open futures contracts that later disappeared. That decline is a warning not to chase rallies that are not backed by real demand.
This year, open interest in Shanghai has risen, but it has not reached the extreme levels seen in early 2025. That suggests traders are being more cautious. Treat sharp price spikes with care and track open interest daily. A sudden fall in open contracts can signal a near-term price drop, as it did last year.
The broader backdrop also argues for caution. China is no longer driving global metal demand growth as strongly as it once did. The January 2026 NBS Manufacturing PMI was 49.8, showing a mild contraction. This supports the view that China is not providing the same strong boost it did after 2008. Buyers should not assume Chinese demand will support prices indefinitely.
Given the risk of a correction like last year’s, derivatives traders may want to hedge downside risk with put options. Bear put spreads can also work. They can benefit from a drop while limiting upfront cost. These trades can help if today’s softness turns into a larger decline in the weeks ahead.
Global inventories are also rising. LME-registered copper stocks have increased to 115,000 tonnes, suggesting supply is running ahead of near-term demand. In that setting, selling call options against long positions may be a way to earn income if prices move sideways or fall. This approach fits traders who think upside from here may be limited.
US retail sales were flat at $735 billion in December, missing forecasts after November’s 0.6% rise
US Retail Sales in the United States were unchanged at $735 billion in December, according to the US Census Bureau. This followed a 0.6% increase in November and came in below the expected 0.4% rise.
Year over year, Retail Sales increased 2.4% in December. Total sales from October 2025 through December 2025 rose 3.0% (±0.4%) compared with the same period a year earlier.
Dollar Reaction To Retail Sales
After the release, the US Dollar slipped slightly. The USD Index was down 0.05% on the day, at 96.83 at the time of reporting. The flat December 2025 retail sales figure suggests the US consumer may be losing momentum after a strong run. The slowdown, following a firmer November, may reflect smaller savings buffers and more cautious spending as the first quarter of 2026 begins. This reading also challenges the idea that economic strength is holding up as well as it did through most of last year. This report may also raise expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than previously expected. Markets may start assigning a higher chance of a policy shift before summer, which some traders express through options on Fed Funds futures. With the Fed’s 2024 pivot away from tightening still in mind, weaker consumer demand adds to the case for a more dovish outlook. In this setting, protective put options on consumer discretionary and retail-focused ETFs may look more attractive as hedges. US credit card balances have recently moved above a record $1.1 trillion, and soft retail data suggests consumers may struggle to keep spending at the same pace using debt. As a result, implied volatility in these sectors—and in the broader market through the VIX—could rise from current low levels.Positioning For A Weaker Dollar
The Dollar’s small drop after the data may be the start of a broader move if rate-cut expectations continue to build. Traders can position for potential Dollar weakness in derivatives markets by favoring call options on currencies such as the Euro or Japanese Yen. If Fed policy shifts, dollar-denominated assets may become less attractive, encouraging capital to move into other markets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Rabobank’s Michael Every says Trump touts 15% US growth, hinting at overheating and boosting dollar inflows amid Fed messaging
Rabobank cited Donald Trump saying U.S. growth could be 15% or more if a future Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, “does his job.” The report said it was not clear what “15%” meant—annual growth, growth over the remaining two-and-a-half years of a presidency, or nominal versus real growth.
The report linked this comment to expectations that policy could allow faster growth. It also referenced Financial Times coverage saying foreign money is still flowing into the U.S. Rabobank said this backdrop supports the U.S. dollar.
Policy Pressure And Growth Expectations
The report also mentioned media reports that the U.S. may exempt large technology firms from upcoming chip tariffs. These exemptions would depend on foreign direct investment commitments from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). It said corporate use of AI is rising and could boost productivity, though it noted that different types of AI use may have different effects. For near-term data, it highlighted U.S. retail sales and the NFIB small business survey as key releases. The main takeaway is that there is pressure on the Fed to let the economy run hot—favoring growth even if inflation stays sticky near the 3.2% level seen last month. This view is supported by the strong 3.5% annualized GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025. Derivatives strategies may now lean toward a pro-growth, higher-volatility outlook for interest rates. Even with political noise, the report expects foreign investors to keep putting money into the U.S.—a trend sometimes called “Bash All Day, Buy All Night.” Treasury data from late 2025 supported this, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities reaching record highs. These inflows support long U.S. dollar positions, and make call options on the dollar index appealing versus other major currencies.Market Positioning And Near Term Catalysts
The report argues that the AI boom is starting to show up in real productivity gains, which can support higher U.S. market valuations. It linked this to the Nasdaq 100’s strong 30% rally in 2025. It said continued bullish positioning in U.S. equity indices may make sense, potentially using call spreads to reduce option costs. It also said the administration’s more pragmatic industrial policy—such as exempting Big Tech from some chip tariffs in exchange for investment—could reduce major downside risks for markets. This selective neo-mercantilist approach may provide a steadier backdrop for sectors like semiconductors. The report described this as a reason to consider selling out-of-the-money puts on tech-focused ETFs. In the near term, it is closely watching upcoming retail sales and the NFIB small business survey. Strong results would reinforce the “hot economy” story and could trigger short-term volatility. Traders may look at short-dated options to position for a possible upside surprise in these releases. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.ING strategists say softer job outlook lowers short-term yields, while supply fears lift long-term yields and steepen the curve
US yield curves have steepened. Short-term rates fell, while long-term yields rose.
Front-end rates dropped after comments from Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council. He suggested weaker job gains may reflect population trends, ahead of the delayed January jobs data.
Long-end yields rose due to supply worries and doubts about foreign demand for US Treasuries. Chinese regulators also warned local financial firms about holding too many US Treasuries. This added to fears that overseas buyers may step back while US deficits stay large.
