Mula berdagang sekarang – Klik
Nisbah akaun semasa terkumpul Mexico kepada KDNK meningkat pada suku keempat kepada 1.6%, naik daripada 0.49%
Baki akaun semasa terkumpul Mexico meningkat kepada 1.6% daripada KDNK pada suku keempat. Ini naik daripada 0.49% pada tempoh sebelumnya.
Angka ini menunjukkan peningkatan 1.11 mata peratusan. Data ini merujuk kepada baki akaun semasa terkumpul berbanding KDNK (Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar, iaitu nilai jumlah barangan dan perkhidmatan yang dihasilkan dalam ekonomi).
Kami melihat peningkatan ketara dalam akaun luar Mexico sebagai isyarat positif yang jelas untuk Peso Mexico. Data hujung 2025 menunjukkan kedudukan kewangan negara lebih kukuh dan boleh menarik lebih banyak modal (aliran wang pelabur masuk). Ini menguatkan pandangan kami bahawa strategi derivatif (instrumen kewangan yang nilainya bergantung pada aset lain seperti kadar tukaran) patut memihak kepada pengukuhan peso berbanding dolar dalam masa terdekat.
Kekuatan asas ini melengkapi perbezaan kadar faedah yang tinggi (jurang antara kadar faedah Mexico dan AS) yang menyokong peso. Trend ini semakin jelas sepanjang 2025 apabila Banxico (bank pusat Mexico) mengekalkan kadar dasar pada 11.25%. Dengan kadar tukaran USD/MXN (dolar AS per peso Mexico) sudah menguji paras rendah sekitar 17.05 bulan ini, berita ini boleh menjadi pemangkin (faktor yang mendorong pergerakan) untuk menembusi di bawah paras psikologi penting itu. Oleh itu, kita patut mempertimbangkan untuk menjual (short) niaga hadapan USD/MXN (kontrak membeli/menjual pada harga masa depan) atau membeli opsyen panggilan peso (call option: hak membeli, bukan kewajipan).
Akaun semasa yang lebih baik juga mengubah jangkaan dasar kadar faedah, memberi bank pusat lebih kelonggaran. Walaupun inflasi (kenaikan harga umum) masih membimbangkan, kestabilan luaran ini boleh membolehkan Banxico mempertimbangkan pemotongan kadar pertama lebih awal daripada jangkaan pasaran. Kita patut melihat kedudukan dalam niaga hadapan TIIE (kadar rujukan faedah antara bank di Mexico) untuk mengambil kira pendirian yang lebih longgar (dovish: cenderung menurunkan kadar) menjelang suku kedua.
Berdasarkan data ini, kami menjangka volatiliti tersirat (implied volatility: jangkaan pasaran terhadap turun naik harga yang dibaca daripada harga opsyen) peso akan menurun apabila ketidakpastian berkurang. Tahun lalu, volatiliti tersirat bagi opsyen USD/MXN 3 bulan purata melebihi 14%, tetapi ini boleh menurun. Ini menunjukkan strategi yang melibatkan menjual opsyen, seperti covered call (menjual opsyen panggilan sambil memegang aset asas untuk hadkan risiko) atau short strangle (menjual opsyen panggilan dan opsyen jual pada harga mogok berbeza untuk mendapat premium), boleh menjadi lebih menguntungkan.
With Nvidia’s Q4 earnings imminent, the S&P 500 remains range-bound as investors await the results
Nvidia is set to report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell, as the S&P 500 trades in a tight range. Investors are watching the report against a $66 billion revenue target, ahead of Nvidia’s GTC event next month.
Nvidia shares are stuck between $171 and $194, with a midpoint near $182. A key resistance level sits at $196. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop that started in November 2025.
Key Earnings Focus
The main focus is on Blackwell chip manufacturing costs, and whether they could pressure Nvidia’s roughly 75% profit margins. Markets also want updates on the Vera Rubin chip architecture ahead of GTC. A move above $194 may run into resistance at $196. If the stock turns lower there, it could fall back toward $182 and $171. If earnings are strong and margin worries ease, a break above $196 could support another test of record highs. The S&P 500 has pulled back from the $7,000 ceiling and is now moving between $6,700 and $6,990. A tighter near-term range has formed between $6,830 and $6,900. The index was rejected at $6,909 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance) and is trading below the 1-hour 200-EMA. The 1-hour Stochastic RSI is rising toward overbought. A strong Nvidia report could lift the index toward $6,990 to $7,000. A weak report could keep trading locked between $6,900 and $6,830.Options Market Positioning
With Nvidia’s earnings just hours away, options markets are pricing in a huge 15% move in the stock by the end of the week. This high implied volatility suggests traders expect more than a small beat or miss. They are positioned for an event that could change the story around the stock. Demand for downside protection is also rising, with put-call skew at its highest level since the broad tech sell-off in late 2025. For a bullish reaction, the stock likely needs a high-volume break above $194. The bigger test is the $196 resistance. Traders looking to play the upside may consider weekly call options to capture a sharp, short-term move. A clean break above $196 would suggest worries about Blackwell margins were overstated, which could trigger a fast unwind of bearish positions. If results disappoint, or if margin guidance is weak, the $194–$196 area may act as a hard ceiling. A rejection there would support buying puts that target the $182 mid-range, with a possible slide to the $171 support level if the news is especially negative. This would reinforce growing concerns about a slowdown in AI spending, a theme that has picked up since January earnings calls. Beyond today, comments from CEO Jensen Huang could quickly reset options pricing ahead of the March GTC event. Any positive signals about next-generation Vera Rubin chips could lift the value of March and April call options, even if the initial earnings move is small. Longer-dated positions may need to be adjusted based on the tone of the conference call. For the S&P 500, the tight range between $6,830 and $6,900 may favor premium-selling strategies like iron condors. With the index capped below key moving averages and showing signs of fatigue, selling out-of-the-money calls and puts can work if the market stays range-bound. This approach has fit the choppy trade seen since the failed push above $7,000 earlier this month. If Nvidia delivers a strong beat, the S&P 500 could test the top of the mini-range near $6,900 and quickly move toward the psychological $7,000 level. That would be a signal to close bearish index positions and possibly buy short-dated SPY or SPX calls. If Nvidia disappoints, it would confirm the rejection at the $6,909 Fibonacci level and could bring the index down to test support near $6,830. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US EIA crude oil inventories rose to 15.989M in February, reversing a prior 9.014M decline
US EIA data shows crude oil stocks in the United States rose by 15.989 million barrels in the week ending 20 February.
The previous reading was a fall of 9.014 million barrels.
Bearish Inventory Surprise
The move from a large draw to a nearly 16 million barrel build is a strong bearish signal. It may point to weaker demand, excess supply, or both—and the market likely did not fully price this in. In our view, traders may want to prepare for lower prices in the near term. Possible approaches include buying puts on major oil ETFs or shorting front-month futures. This jump in inventories fits with broader demand worries. China’s January 2026 PMI slipped below 50 to 49.8, which signals a contraction in manufacturing. Because China is the world’s biggest oil importer, slower activity there can reduce global oil demand. That backdrop suggests the inventory build may be part of a wider trend, not a one-off event. On the supply side, U.S. crude output remains high, staying above 13.5 million barrels per day—similar to the sustained production strength seen in 2024 and 2025. At the same time, refinery utilization has fallen to 80.5%, meaning refineries are processing less crude into gasoline and distillates. High production plus lower refinery demand helps explain why more barrels are ending up in storage.Options Market Positioning
After the report, implied volatility in near-term options jumped, showing the market was surprised and uncertainty increased. Traders who think the move is an overreaction could consider selling out-of-the-money call spreads to collect premium while targeting limited upside. Traders expecting further downside could use bear put spreads to cap risk and lower the cost of a bearish position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As trade policy doubts persist, a steady US dollar lets sterling lift GBP/USD as earnings loom
GBP/USD rose during Wednesday’s North American session after the US Dollar lost momentum on uncertainty over US trade policy. The pair traded at 1.3523, up 0.29%.
With little US or UK data, markets focused on comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials, along with expectations for interest-rate moves. The BoE previously held the Bank Rate in a close 5-4 vote. Money markets have priced in 18 basis points of easing by the 19 March meeting.
Central Bank Signals And Market Pricing
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said a March cut is possible, but noted that services inflation is still high. In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said cuts make sense if inflation keeps falling. However, he warned against “front loading” cuts without clear proof inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the labour market looks steady but is slowly loosening. They also noted that progress on inflation has been uneven. Markets do not expect a Fed cut at the next meeting. Traders have priced in 50 basis points of easing for the rest of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. On Thursday, the UK calendar is empty, and markets will watch comments from BoE’s Lombardelli. In the US, traders will focus on Initial Jobless Claims and a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. From a technical view, GBP/USD traded near 1.3528. It is supported around 1.3035 and faces resistance near 1.3869. Near-term resistance sits around 1.3560, followed by 1.3680 and 1.3835. Support is around 1.3500, then 1.3460 and 1.3400.Shift In Policy Divergence Since Early 2025
In early 2025, markets expected both the Fed and the BoE to cut rates in a similar way. That has changed. Data from early 2026 now points to a clear split in policy between the two central banks. This gap has become the key driver of GBP/USD. A BoE cut—seen as possible in March 2025—now looks unlikely. Services inflation remains stubbornly high and came in at 5.9% in the latest January report. Because of this, derivatives markets are pricing in almost 30 basis points of additional tightening by the BoE by year-end. This more hawkish pricing supports Sterling and makes buying on deep pullbacks a reasonable approach. In the US, the 50 basis points of cuts expected for 2025 did happen, but further easing has slowed. A strong January 2026 jobs report, showing 225,000 new jobs, has pushed back expectations for a March cut. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the chance of a March cut at just 15%, which helps support the US Dollar. This policy push-and-pull could lead to bigger moves in the weeks ahead. Implied volatility in 3-month GBP/USD options has climbed from about 6.5% late last year to over 8.2%. That suggests the market expects wider price swings. Traders may consider options strategies such as strangles to benefit if the pair breaks out of its recent range. The technical setup discussed in 2025 is no longer useful. The rising support trendline near 1.3500 broke clearly late last year. That level has now turned into major resistance, and the pair is currently struggling near 1.3310. On the downside, the key level to watch is the post-Brexit support zone around 1.3200. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold steadies after rebound as traders assess US tariffs, Iran talks and Federal Reserve expectations
Gold edged higher on Wednesday after falling the day before. XAU/USD traded near $5,192 after dropping to $5,121. A steady US Dollar and stronger equities capped the rebound.
Trade worries returned after Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from all countries. The move follows a US Supreme Court ruling that limits the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Geopolitical And Trade Uncertainty
Markets also focused on US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. Trump said he prefers diplomacy. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to take steps toward an agreement. Expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have faded as officials highlight ongoing inflation pressure. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pointed to the 2% inflation target. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said rates may stay unchanged “for some time”. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains below $5,250 and is forming a rising wedge. RSI (14) dropped from above 70 to the high-50s. MACD (12, 26, 9) crossed below its signal line and the histogram turned negative. A break above $5,250 could open the way to $5,500. A move below $5,100 may bring the 100-period SMA near $5,012 into view, followed by $4,850 and $4,650.Strategy And Risk Management
Gold is stuck in a tight range. Traders are weighing major geopolitical risks against a firm Federal Reserve. The new 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and the upcoming Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are boosting demand for safe havens like gold. At the same time, the strong U.S. dollar is a key headwind and is limiting any rally. We have seen similar trade-policy shocks before. Gold rallied more than 20% in 2019 during the height of the U.S.-China trade conflict. With U.S. GDP growth slowing to 1.1% in Q4 2025, these new tariffs could raise recession risks, which would usually support gold. Uncertainty around the Iran talks adds another potential layer of support. However, the Federal Reserve does not support the bullish case right now. Policymakers remain focused on inflation. The latest CPI report in January showed core inflation still high at 3.8%, so Fed officials are pushing back on expectations for rate cuts. Fed funds futures have shifted sharply, with the odds of a March cut falling from over 70% last month to below 30% today. This fundamental tug-of-war, along with technical signs of weaker momentum, makes it risky to bet on a single direction. Instead of taking a simple long or short position, consider options strategies that can benefit from a large move either way. A long straddle—buying both a call and a put with a strike near the current $5,200 level—fits this kind of market. This approach can profit if gold breaks strongly above $5,250 on negative geopolitical headlines, or falls below $5,100 on hawkish Fed comments. The premium paid is the maximum risk, giving a defined-risk way to trade likely volatility. This is often safer than holding a futures contract that can be whipsawed by conflicting headlines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.BNP Paribas reports that eurozone banks expect tighter household credit than corporate lending in 2026, driven by CRR3 requirements
Eurozone banks expect slightly stronger tightening of credit standards for households than for corporations in 2026, based on the ECB Bank Lending Survey. Banks link this shift to higher regulatory capital and liquidity requirements under CRR3 and the output floor.
Only a small share of banks plans to change standards. For housing loans, 10% of banks expect a slight tightening, 3% expect a strong tightening, and 1% expect a slight easing.
Credit Standards Outlook For 2026
The net share of banks expecting further tightening in 2026 is 12%, up from 7% in 2025. This points to more tightening planned for 2026 than was seen in 2025. Even so, loan activity has increased since June 2025. Over 12 months, cumulated monthly flows of new loans rose by 30% year on year for housing and by 10% for corporate loans. Some Eurozone banks plan a modest tightening of credit standards for households in 2026. This is slightly more than in 2025. It could mildly slow consumer spending and the housing market. Eurozone inflation has eased to 2.2% in January. Tighter credit could also reduce price pressures. Derivatives traders may look at options on EURIBOR futures if they expect the ECB to have less need to stay hawkish on rates. That could support a steadier, more range-bound outlook for short-term rates in the coming weeks.Market Implications And Trading Angles
Still, the impact may be limited because few banks expect a major tightening. New loan flows were strong in the second half of 2025, with housing loans up about 30% year on year. This demand suggests the market may absorb a modest tightening without major disruption. These mixed signals could mean lower volatility in areas like European banking and real estate. One possible strategy is selling straddles or strangles on indices such as the Euro STOXX Banks Index. This would benefit if markets stay calm, which the strong loan data suggests is possible. Tightening is expected to be stronger for households than for corporations. This could create a gap in performance. Sectors tied to business investment may do better than consumer discretionary sectors. A pairs trade using options—long an industrial sector ETF and short a consumer retail ETF—could be a way to express that view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Mexico’s fourth-quarter current account hit $7,702M, missing forecasts of $11,520M
Mexico’s current account balance rose to **$7,702 million** quarter-on-quarter in **Q4**. This was below the expected **$11,520 million**.
The reported balance missed the forecast by **$3,818 million**. The figure is in **U.S. dollars** and covers the **Q4** period.
Mexico’s **Q4 2025** current account surplus came in at **$7.7 billion**, below our expectation of **more than $11.5 billion**. This means less foreign currency entered the country than expected, which is a negative for the peso. This downside surprise may weaken market sentiment toward the **MXN** in the coming weeks.
Because of this, we are considering strategies that may benefit from a weaker peso, such as **buying USD/MXN call options**. The peso has been strong recently, trading around **17.50 per dollar**, mainly because Mexico’s rates remain much higher than U.S. rates. This weaker-than-expected report could be the trigger that pushes **USD/MXN** higher, potentially toward **18.00**.
This also makes the outlook more difficult for **Banxico** ahead of its **March** meeting. Inflation in **January 2026** remained sticky at **4.5%**, but this weaker external signal could push Banxico toward a more dovish message. We will watch **interest rate swaps** for signs that the market is repricing the path for rate cuts this year.
The miss likely reflects a weaker trade balance, possibly tied to the slowdown in **U.S. manufacturing** seen in January’s data. Even with strong remittances—over **$63 billion** in total for **2025**—it was not enough to reach the higher surplus forecast. This may be an early warning sign for the export-led growth narrative.
This surprise increases uncertainty about where the peso goes next. If the direction is unclear, a way to express that view is to **buy volatility** using options such as **straddles**. This strategy can profit from a large move in **MXN** in either direction as markets digest the data.
Mexico’s accumulated current account-to-GDP ratio rose to 1.6% in Q4, up from 0.49%.
Mexico’s accumulated current account balance rose to 1.6% of GDP in the fourth quarter, up from 0.49% in the prior period.
That is an increase of 1.11 percentage points. These figures measure the accumulated current account balance as a share of GDP.
We view this sharp improvement in Mexico’s external accounts as a bullish signal for the Mexican peso. The late-2025 data suggest the country is on a stronger financial footing, which can attract additional capital inflows. This supports our view that derivatives strategies should position for peso strength versus the dollar in the near term.
This fundamental support adds to the wide interest rate differential that has helped the peso. That trend strengthened through 2025 as Banxico kept its policy rate at 11.25%. With USD/MXN already testing lows near 17.05 this month, this news could be the catalyst for a break below that key psychological level. We should therefore consider shorting USD/MXN futures or buying peso call options.
A stronger current account also changes the rate-policy outlook by giving the central bank more flexibility. Inflation is still a concern, but improved external stability may allow Banxico to start cutting rates sooner than the market expects. We should consider positioning in TIIE futures for a more dovish shift by the second quarter.
With this stronger data point, we expect implied peso volatility to fall as uncertainty declines. Last year, implied volatility for 3-month USD/MXN options averaged above 14%, and it may now trend lower. This favors option-selling strategies—such as covered calls or short strangles—which could become more attractive if volatility continues to compress.
This strength is not a one-off. It is further evidence that nearshoring is delivering measurable gains. Foreign direct investment in Mexico reached a record above $40 billion in 2025, and the current account data suggests this is feeding through into stronger exports and a healthier balance of payments. This structural shift supports a long-term appreciation view for Mexican assets.
As geopolitical and economic risks persist, silver gains traction as buyers support dips and the RSI stays above 50
Silver rose on Wednesday after falling the day before, as buyers returned amid ongoing geopolitical and economic risks. XAG/USD traded near $90.25, up about 3.38%. A firmer US Dollar limited the upside.
The metal is up nearly 24% over the past five trading days and is close to its highest level in almost three weeks. This follows a pullback from the late-January record high of $121.66.
Technical Trend Remains Intact
On the daily chart, price is back above the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average and remains above the 100-day SMA. Both are in the low-to-mid $80s, which keeps the broader uptrend in place. The Relative Strength Index is back above 50. This points to stronger momentum without showing overbought conditions. The MACD is moving toward zero as its histogram shrinks, which suggests bearish pressure is fading. Average True Range has dropped from recent peaks, showing lower volatility. This may lead to steadier moves instead of sharp swings. Support is near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $86.08, based on the $121.66 high and $64.08 low. Below that, the 23.6% level sits at $77.67.Key Levels To Watch
Resistance is near the 50% Fibonacci level at $92.87. Above that, the next level is the 61.8% retracement at $99.67. Silver is regaining traction after its steep pullback from the record highs near $121 in late January. The 24% jump in just five days shows dip-buyers are active, which may help form a new price floor. This rebound is a reason to revisit bullish setups. The main headwind is the strong US Dollar. It is supported by the Federal Reserve’s message that rates may stay higher for longer. Recent data is adding to that strength. For example, the January jobs report showed 295,000 new jobs versus 180,000 expected. This backdrop may limit any sharp upside in silver for now. It is also worth noting that demand for silver remains strong, especially from green energy. In the final quarter of 2025, global solar panel installations rose 15% year over year. This level of industrial demand can help support prices even when markets are volatile. With the RSI turning positive, $92.87 is the key level to watch. A clear break above it could support strategies such as buying long call options or selling bull put spreads, as the path would open toward $99.67. On the downside, risk is centered on the $86.08 support level. A sustained move below it would suggest bullish momentum is weakening. That makes it an important area for stop-loss placement or for buying protective puts to hedge long positions. This price action looks similar to patterns seen in 2025, when strong rallies tied to inflation fears often ran into resistance as central bank policy shifted. However, the current drop in volatility suggests this rebound may be steadier than the sharp swings seen last year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.HSBC says GBP/USD looks overvalued as expectations of a BoE cut grow, keeping sterling under pressure after February’s close vote
HSBC Global Research says GBP/USD looks expensive when you compare it with interest rate differentials, especially as markets increasingly expect a more dovish Bank of England. Sterling has stayed under pressure since the BoE’s 5–4 vote in February to keep policy unchanged.
UK labour market data is due a few hours before the BoE meeting on 19 March. Bloomberg data dated 24 February shows markets pricing about an 80% probability of a 25 bp rate cut.
