US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran has been a serious threat to the United States for a long time. He said Thursday’s talks will mainly focus on Iran’s nuclear program. Rubio said Iran is not enriching uranium right now, but is trying to reach that capability. He also said Iran has conventional weapons designed to attack the United States.

Irans Ballistic Missile Issue

He said Iran is trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. Rubio said Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missiles is a major problem. Rubio said diplomacy should still be on the table. He called Thursday’s meeting the next opportunity for talks. He also said the current situation in Cuba cannot continue. He said Cuba needs major change. In market moves, gold (XAU/USD) was up 0.05% at $5,167 at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 1.01% at $65.60.

Trading Implications And Risk

These comments about Iran’s ballistic missile program being a “major problem” add real uncertainty, and markets often reprice quickly when uncertainty rises. With WTI near $65, the market may be underestimating the risk that diplomacy fails, which could threaten oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. One approach is to buy out-of-the-money call options on crude oil futures. They can be a lower-cost way to benefit from a sudden price jump if tensions escalate. Supply shocks like the disruptions in 2025 show how fast prices can spike. Recent shipping data says more than 20% of the world’s daily oil supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz last year. Any military activity in that corridor would disrupt global shipping and likely push oil prices higher, which would support those call options. Gold is already above $5,100, which suggests investors are seeking safer assets. Central banks have been steady buyers over the past year, and inflation data from late 2025 has stayed stubbornly high, helping support prices. If rhetoric on Iran stays intense, gold could attract even more demand. Call spreads may offer a way to target further upside while limiting the high cost of outright calls. This geopolitical tension can also spark broader volatility, which has been fairly low so far this quarter. The VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, is up about 10% over the last two weeks from its February lows. Buying VIX futures or call options is a direct way to position for a breakdown in talks that could trigger a wider sell-off and a jump in fear. Still, diplomacy has not been ruled out. A breakthrough would likely reduce tensions, push oil prices lower, and support a market rally. To hedge that outcome, we could consider buying puts on major energy-sector ETFs as insurance in case unexpectedly positive news defuses the standoff. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through China’s 2026 Two Sessions. They do not expect officials to push back against a stronger yuan during this period. They forecast USD/CNY will drift down to 6.7 by the end of 2026, in line with broader US dollar weakness. They add that the pair could reach 6.7 by mid-2026 if the current pace continues.

Post Two Sessions Policy Outlook

After the Two Sessions end on 11 March, they expect possible changes to structural foreign exchange settings. These steps would aim to slow further yuan gains and reduce one-sided moves in the exchange rate. Authorities are likely to keep USD/CNY volatility very low during China’s most important political event of the year. TD Securities believes the People’s Bank of China is not resisting appreciation and would allow a gradual decline in the exchange rate. Their forecast points to a move toward 6.7 by year-end, in line with broad US dollar weakness. Recent data supports this view. China’s exports rose 5.2% year-on-year in January, beating expectations. This strength may give officials more comfort to let the currency firm. The PBoC has also been setting the daily fixing stronger than market estimates, which signals it is comfortable with the current trend. On the other side, the US dollar has been under pressure after a softer-than-expected Core PCE inflation report last month. Core PCE rose just 0.2%, which increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease policy later this year. The dollar index also fell sharply through much of 2025 as the global recovery became more broad-based.

Strategy Implications For Options Traders

For the next two weeks, until the Two Sessions conclude on March 11, low volatility looks like the most likely outcome. This could favor selling volatility—such as short straddles or strangles—to collect premium. USD/CNY is trading near 6.82, and they expect it to remain in a tight range. After mid-March, positioning for a further decline in USD/CNY may make sense. Buying put options with second-quarter expiries could capture a move toward the 6.7 level. The pace of appreciation has been fast, and TD Securities’ year-end forecast could be reached as early as this summer. However, traders should watch for policy tweaks after the political event. If the yuan strengthens too quickly, authorities may adjust FX settings to slow the move. That could create risk for traders who are positioned too aggressively for further yuan strength after March. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said tariffs have had some effect on US goods inflation. She also said a federal funds rate of 3.25% to 3.5% fits with the US economy returning to full employment. She said bringing US public debt down will take firm, sustained action. She added that the IMF shares the Trump administration’s concern about rising US trade and current account deficits.

Tariffs Inflation And Rate Expectations

She said the IMF has not commented on a Supreme Court decision that struck down some of Trump’s tariffs. She said the IMF will review the impact and include it in its full US Article IV report. She said the average US tariff rate is now about 10%, down from estimates as high as 25% in April 2025. She said the US still attracts strong foreign financial inflows and can fund its spending. However, she warned that medium-term deficits must decline. Tariffs are duties charged on imported goods or product categories. They are often used to protect domestic producers. Importers pay tariffs at the port of entry. Taxes are paid at purchase and apply to individuals and businesses. In the run-up to the November 2024 election, Donald Trump said he would use tariffs to support the US economy and US producers. In 2024, Mexico, China, and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports, led by Mexico at $466.6 billion.

Trade Policy Volatility And Market Positioning

Goods inflation has been affected by tariff policy since last year. The fall in the average tariff rate—from the highs seen around April 2025 to about 10% today—is an important change. Traders should track how this lower-tariff environment shows up in upcoming inflation reports, since it could cool prices faster than expected. If inflation eases, the outlook for interest rates could shift. Core CPI for January 2026 came in at 3.1%, slightly below forecasts. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in the Federal Reserve moving toward its 3.25% to 3.5% target sooner. This makes rate products, including options on interest rate futures such as SOFR, more relevant for traders positioning for rate cuts. We share the administration’s concern about the trade deficit, which stayed wide in the December 2025 report. While the Supreme Court decision removed some tariffs, the policy goals remain in place. Because uncertainty is still high, traders may want to consider volatility-focused approaches, such as straddles on ETFs tied to industrial and manufacturing sectors. The administration continues to focus on major partners such as Mexico and Canada. After the tariff swings of 2025, USD/MXN and USD/CAD have been highly sensitive to trade headlines. New statements or policy moves could cause sharp price changes, making currency options useful for hedging or for short-term speculation in the weeks ahead. In 2018–2019, markets often moved most on specific tariff announcements, not on the broader policy direction. That pattern suggests traders should closely watch official statements for near-term signals. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down from its 2025 highs but still above long-run norms, showing that markets are still pricing in political risk. Even with trade disputes, the US continues to draw in foreign capital, which has helped keep the dollar relatively strong. Still, concern is rising about the need to bring public debt onto a declining path. This may not drive markets right away, but it could weigh on longer-term USD positions if it is not addressed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $68.1bn, beating estimates of $65bn. Gross margin was 75%, up from 73.5% in the prior quarter. Q1 revenue guidance was $78bn versus estimates of $72bn. The company said hyperscalers made up 50% of revenue. It also reported growing enterprise adoption of AI agents, which could expand demand beyond a small group of large buyers.

Supply Visibility And China Assumptions

Nvidia said it has secured enough supply to meet demand for several quarters. Its Q1 forecast assumes no demand from China, even though it expects a 13% revenue increase for the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents rose $20bn year on year to $62.6bn. The company is expected to update the market on progress with its GB300 chip, and it may repeat its $500bn sales pipeline forecast for this year. The US has granted licences to export less advanced chips to China. Earlier this year, Beijing approved purchases of 400,000 H200 GPUs for Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance. Even so, trade friction remains a constraint. The share price rose after the release but later gave back gains, staying below the 2% average move seen the day after results. The Nasdaq e-mini contract rose 1.4% after the report, and the sales pipeline forecast stayed unchanged at $500bn.

Market Reaction And Options Positioning

Looking back to this period in 2025, Nvidia delivered a blockbuster earnings report that did not trigger a major rally at first. The market looked cautious even after Nvidia beat revenue estimates and issued a strong forecast. A similar pattern has appeared again after last week’s earnings release. Fundamentals look even stronger now, but the stock’s reaction has still been fairly muted. That setup often keeps implied volatility elevated, as traders price in a big move that may not fully happen. Data shows near-term implied volatility is in the 75th percentile over the past year, which makes option premiums expensive. For stockholders, this can create an opportunity to sell covered calls a few weeks out. The goal is to collect the higher premium and earn income while the market digests the news. If the stock trades sideways or rises only slightly, like the post-earnings drift seen in 2025, the options can expire worthless and the premium is kept. Competition also matters more than it did last year. Reports from January 2026 suggest AMD’s MI300X has captured about 10% of the AI accelerator market, up from roughly 3% a year earlier. That could put a ceiling on Nvidia’s valuation and support a more range-bound approach. For investors who are more bullish and think last year’s muted reaction was only a pause before a larger rally, call debit spreads may make more sense than buying calls outright. Spreads reduce upfront cost and help offset the drag from higher implied volatility. They limit upside, but can offer better risk-reward if the stock rises without a huge surge. The 2025 analysis also flagged a possible rotation into less-favored tech areas, such as software. That appears to be happening again. Over the past two weeks, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has outperformed the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) by 4%. This suggests money may be moving away from market leaders, which supports caution on near-term, purely directional bullish bets on Nvidia. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

AUD/JPY climbed more than 1.20% on Wednesday after Australia’s inflation report led markets to expect further Reserve Bank of Australia rate rises. The pair was trading near 111.38 at the time of writing. The rally strengthened after price broke the prior yearly high at 110.79 and cleared 111.00. The RSI is now above 70, with traders watching 80 as the next “extreme” zone.

Technical Levels And Momentum

If price breaks the yearly high at 111.47, it could move toward 112.00. With the ATR at 111 pips, the next resistance levels are 112.49 and then 113.00. If the pair drops back below 111.00, it may retest the 10 February cycle high at 110.67. Further downside levels include the 20-day SMA at 109.34 and a support trendline from the November 2025 lows near 108.00. The yen’s value depends on Japan’s economic performance, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy, bond yield spreads, and overall risk sentiment. The BoJ’s ultra-loose policy from 2013 to 2024 weakened the yen. Since 2024, the start of policy unwinding has offered some support and narrowed the US–Japan 10-year yield gap. After the strong push above 111.00, near-term momentum looks bullish for AUD/JPY. The jump followed Australia’s CPI report, which showed quarterly inflation at 1.2%, well above our 0.8% forecast. As a result, markets are now pricing in at least one more RBA rate hike this year. The technical setup also supports buying on strength. The RSI has not yet reached the very overbought levels seen in similar 2024 moves. One approach is to consider call options with strikes around 112.00 or 112.50, aiming for further gains over the next two to three weeks. In a strong trend, pullbacks toward 111.00 are often treated as buying opportunities.

Risk And Positioning Considerations

Even so, the Japanese yen can reverse sharply. Last week, BoJ officials signaled increasing discomfort with a weak yen, which could point to faster policy normalization. The ongoing exit from ultra-loose policy—underway since 2024—remains the biggest risk to this uptrend. To limit this risk, derivatives can help define exposure. For example, bull call spreads can reduce upfront cost versus buying the pair outright. Implied volatility on AUD/JPY options rose to a six-month high of 14.2% this morning, highlighting the tension between the two central banks. Another prudent hedge is buying protective puts with strikes below the key 110.67 support level. For now, fundamentals still support the Australian dollar. Rate differentials remain a major driver: the spread between Australian and Japanese 10-year government bonds is about 385 basis points, the widest since Q3 2025. If broader risk sentiment stays positive, the carry trade appeal should continue to weigh on the safe-haven yen. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to announce a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5.0% at the Two Sessions. They also expect a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP, which would signal a loose, supportive fiscal policy. In 2026, policy is likely to center on boosting domestic demand. That support is expected to come from both consumption measures and investment-led policies.

Gradual Shift Toward Consumption

The move toward consumption is expected to be gradual, with the goal of widening China’s growth drivers. This shift is tied to weak Fixed-Asset Investment (FAI) in the second half of 2025. Targeted consumer support is expected to continue. The consumer trade-in program is highlighted as a key stimulus tool that may run into 2026. With the Two Sessions approaching, we expect an official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5.0%. This growth would likely be supported by a large budget deficit close to 9% of GDP, showing a strong push to stimulate the economy. This stronger fiscal stance is a response to weak data in the second half of 2025. Full-year FAI growth in 2025 was only 2.8%, a multi-year low, mainly because the property sector remained under pressure. Policymakers may now lean more on domestic demand to fill this gap.

Derivatives And Market Positioning

For derivatives traders, this setup may favor call options on industrial commodities in the weeks ahead. Iron ore has been consolidating around $120–$125 per tonne. If policymakers confirm new infrastructure spending, prices could move higher. Copper futures may also benefit, since they tend to react to changes in manufacturing and construction. In FX markets, more stimulus would likely support the Australian dollar, which is often used as a proxy for Chinese demand. Traders may look at long positions in AUD/USD futures to benefit from stronger commodity prices. At the same time, a deficit this large could pressure the offshore yuan (CNH), which may create a chance to short CNH versus the US dollar. We are also watching equity derivatives tied to consumer sectors. If the consumer trade-in program continues, specific companies may benefit. The program helped lift auto sales by more than 12% in late 2025. Call options on ETFs focused on Chinese consumer discretionary stocks and electric-vehicle makers may be worth considering. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 2026 results after Wednesday’s close and beat Wall Street estimates. Shares rose more than 3% after the release. Adjusted EPS was $1.62, which was $0.08 above consensus. Revenue was $68.13 billion, which was $1.9 billion above expectations. Revenue rose 20% quarter over quarter and 73% year over year.

Key Segment Performance

Data Centre revenue was $62.3 billion, up 22% from Q3 and 75% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP gross margin was 75.2%, in line with the company’s stated target. For fiscal Q1 2027, Nvidia forecast revenue of $78 billion, above the $72 billion consensus estimate. The company also pointed to rising demand for AI computing and growing enterprise use of AI agents. Salesforce reported a top-line beat, with revenue roughly in line with analyst expectations. Shares fell 4% at first in after-hours trading. Snowflake shares dropped 3% after a narrow beat versus consensus. The Trade Desk fell over 14% after its Q1 revenue outlook came in $10 million below consensus.

Options Strategy Considerations

Nvidia’s big earnings beat shows the AI trend is still speeding up. But the stock only rose about 3%, which suggests much of the good news was already priced in. This “sell the news” move means traders may want more than a simple “buy calls” approach. Implied volatility was very high going into the report, and it will likely fall sharply now. This drop is known as a “volatility crush.” It can make option-selling strategies more attractive, such as short-term, out-of-the-money put credit spreads. These aim to collect premium while betting that NVDA will not fall much in the next few weeks. Tech is also splitting into winners and losers. Salesforce and Snowflake fell even after beats, showing the market is punishing anything that is not close to perfect. Money is concentrating in the clear leader. That sets up a possible pairs trade: take bullish exposure to Nvidia options while buying puts on a broader tech ETF like QQQ to hedge against broader sector weakness. The huge NVDA rally during 2025 also pushed expectations very high. Ahead of the report, call option volume often topped 2 million contracts per day, showing how crowded the bullish trade became. When many buyers are already positioned for upside, even a strong beat can lead to only a modest initial move. Even after this strong report, NVDA’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is still above 35. That valuation depends on near-flawless execution. The stock is also sensitive to interest rates, especially in the environment we have seen since late 2025. Any unexpected macro news could still pressure even the strongest names. Because of that, bullish positions should have clearly defined risk. With strong guidance for next quarter, bullish positions can still make sense, but they should be built to manage cost. A call debit spread—buying a call and selling another call at a higher strike—can target further upside while reducing the upfront premium. It also fits a view that the data center business remains the main driver. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Brazilian assets such as the BRL and the IBOVESPA saw strong inflows in February 2026, leaving positioning stretched. High real interest rates and strong fixed income returns have pulled in more capital. This raises the risk of rebalancing in both equities and bonds. The BRL was the most bought emerging market currency in iFlow during February. The IBOVESPA was on track to end February up more than 25% year to date, alongside strong gains in Brazil’s fixed income market.

Rebalancing Risks In Focus

Rebalancing pressure was said to be stronger in fixed income. This was linked to high real rates and wider inflows into Latin America. Colombia’s rate hike was also cited as a factor that may have increased expectations for tighter policy across the region. Overall exposure to Brazilian assets was described as excessive. That increases the chance that investors will cut holdings to rebalance. This was presented as an alternative to increasing currency hedges. The BRL, ZAR, and MXN were listed as currencies exposed to hedging flows, with Brazil also facing the risk of asset selling. With the Selic rate already restrictive in nominal terms, the scope for faster tightening was described as limited, given political risk. We saw a big rush into Brazilian assets in February, pushing the IBOVESPA up more than 25% since the start of the year. This also made the BRL one of the best-performing emerging market currencies this month. But positioning now looks stretched, and the trade is getting crowded.

Hedging Ideas For Crowded Trades

The appeal is clear: the Selic rate is still restrictive at 11.75%, offering some of the highest real yields in the world. But that success has left many global funds overweight Brazil. To stay within portfolio limits, they may need to sell assets to rebalance. That could trigger a sharp pullback in the coming weeks. Because of this rebalancing risk, it may make sense to add downside protection. Buying put options on the IBOVESPA, or on a related ETF like EWZ, can help hedge a stock market drop. Buying call options on USD/BRL can also help, as they would gain if the Real weakens. A useful example is the 2013 taper tantrum, viewed from our 2025 perspective. It showed how quickly these trades can unwind. When global sentiment turns, crowded carry trades like the BRL are often among the first to see outflows. That history suggests any reversal could be fast and deep. Do not expect the central bank to offer much more support by raising rates further. The Selic rate is already high enough to slow economic activity, and further hikes would likely face strong political resistance. That leaves the BRL vulnerable if selling pressure builds. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

GBP/JPY rose for a second day, gaining more than 0.80%, as the Yen weakened. The move followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s nomination of two dovish academics to the Bank of Japan board. The pair traded at 211.94, just under the day’s high of 212.12. The pair bounced from around 207.62, where the 100-day SMA lined up with a support trendline. The RSI moved above 50, which suggests bullish momentum is improving.

Key Resistance Levels

Resistance is at 212.00. A break above 212.00 opens the way to 214.44, then 215.00. Beyond that, watch 215.88 and then 219.32. These levels come from the July 2008 peak and an August 2007 monthly low that later acted as resistance. Support is at the 50-day SMA near 211.11, followed by 209.68. Below that, the next levels are 208.14 and 208.00. This uptrend restarted sharply around this time last year, in February 2025. Dovish Bank of Japan appointments triggered a strong rally and pushed the pair toward 212.00, with buyers in control. The fundamentals are changing now, so a different approach may be needed in the coming weeks.

Macro Drivers And Policy Divergence

Last year’s main driver—a weak Yen—is now being tested by sticky domestic inflation. Japan’s core CPI for January 2026 unexpectedly rose to 2.8%. That has increased expectations that the Bank of Japan could signal a policy shift by Q2. This would be a clear change from the dovish tone seen through 2025. At the same time, Sterling is under pressure. The UK’s preliminary GDP for Q4 2025 confirmed a technical recession, with a 0.2% contraction. This weakness is raising the chance the Bank of England considers rate cuts later this year. If the BoJ turns more hawkish while the BoE turns more dovish, the long-running uptrend could reverse. Because a reversal is possible, buying put options on GBP/JPY is worth considering. With the pair trading near 210.00, puts with a strike around 208.00 and expiry in April or May 2026 offer a defined-risk way to benefit from a drop. This approach avoids the unlimited risk that comes with shorting the pair outright. If you think the bullish push may continue in the short term, a more conservative alternative is a bearish call spread. Sell a call at a lower strike (such as 212.50) and buy a call at a higher strike (such as 214.50). This can generate premium while keeping risk capped. The position benefits if the pair moves sideways or falls moderately. From a technical view, the 208.00 and 208.14 support zone is now key. A clean break below 208.00 would strongly suggest the multi-year uptrend is ending. That would likely invite more selling and support a more aggressive bearish view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The Australian Dollar rose to almost a two-week high after January inflation came in above forecasts. AUD/USD gained more than 0.85% to around 0.7120 after CPI rose 3.8% year on year and trimmed mean CPI edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%. The US Dollar Index fell toward 97.70 as uncertainty over US trade policy weighed on the currency. EUR/USD traded near 1.1800 and was up more than 0.20%, after softer Eurozone inflation reinforced expectations that the ECB will keep policy steady.

Key G10 Moves And Inflation Signals

GBP/USD traded near 1.3550, a one-week high, after a period of consolidation. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said a March rate cut is possible, while noting that services inflation remains high. USD/JPY traded around 156.40, close to an almost three-week high, as markets weighed uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s rate path. Gold traded near $5,205, up 0.75% on the day, after falling earlier in the week. Upcoming data includes Tokyo February CPI and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. On Friday, releases include Swiss Q4 GDP, Germany’s February flash CPI and HICP, Canadian Q4 GDP, and the US Producer Price Index. In 2022, central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion, the largest annual purchase on record. The sharp rise in Australian inflation suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to tighten policy more than markets expected. The 3.8% CPI print is the third straight month above the RBA’s target band. A similar pattern appeared in 2023, ahead of a run of rate hikes. Traders may consider buying Australian Dollar call options, especially versus currencies backed by dovish central banks, such as the Japanese Yen. US Dollar weakness may continue as uncertainty around US trade policy persists. Markets are reacting to renewed trade friction. Recent Census Bureau data showed US exports fell 5% in January 2026, adding to concerns. One way to position for further declines is to buy put options on the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the Producer Price Index report.

Options Strategies To Watch

The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan stays cautious on raising interest rates. This widening policy gap has not been this pronounced since 2022–2024, when other central banks were hiking aggressively. One strategy to consider is buying AUD/JPY call options, which could benefit from potential RBA tightening and Japan’s continued easy policy. Gold’s rally above $5,200 is being supported by a mix of geopolitical risk and a weaker US Dollar. It is also backed by strong institutional demand. Central bank buying hit record levels in 2022, and reports suggest it accelerated again in late 2025, led by major emerging economies. Buying gold call options, or using call spreads to reduce upfront cost, can still be a practical way to hedge ongoing uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now