TD Securities expects Premier Li to set 2026 growth targets and deficits, prioritising consumer stimulus driven by demand
TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to announce a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5.0% at the Two Sessions. They also expect a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP, which would signal a loose, supportive fiscal policy.
In 2026, policy is likely to center on boosting domestic demand. That support is expected to come from both consumption measures and investment-led policies.
After markets closed, Nvidia beat Q4 forecasts and raised guidance, sending shares up over 3% in after-hours trading
Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 2026 results after Wednesday’s close and beat Wall Street estimates. Shares rose more than 3% after the release.
Adjusted EPS was $1.62, which was $0.08 above consensus. Revenue was $68.13 billion, which was $1.9 billion above expectations. Revenue rose 20% quarter over quarter and 73% year over year.
Key Segment Performance
Data Centre revenue was $62.3 billion, up 22% from Q3 and 75% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP gross margin was 75.2%, in line with the company’s stated target. For fiscal Q1 2027, Nvidia forecast revenue of $78 billion, above the $72 billion consensus estimate. The company also pointed to rising demand for AI computing and growing enterprise use of AI agents. Salesforce reported a top-line beat, with revenue roughly in line with analyst expectations. Shares fell 4% at first in after-hours trading. Snowflake shares dropped 3% after a narrow beat versus consensus. The Trade Desk fell over 14% after its Q1 revenue outlook came in $10 million below consensus.Options Strategy Considerations
Nvidia’s big earnings beat shows the AI trend is still speeding up. But the stock only rose about 3%, which suggests much of the good news was already priced in. This “sell the news” move means traders may want more than a simple “buy calls” approach. Implied volatility was very high going into the report, and it will likely fall sharply now. This drop is known as a “volatility crush.” It can make option-selling strategies more attractive, such as short-term, out-of-the-money put credit spreads. These aim to collect premium while betting that NVDA will not fall much in the next few weeks. Tech is also splitting into winners and losers. Salesforce and Snowflake fell even after beats, showing the market is punishing anything that is not close to perfect. Money is concentrating in the clear leader. That sets up a possible pairs trade: take bullish exposure to Nvidia options while buying puts on a broader tech ETF like QQQ to hedge against broader sector weakness. The huge NVDA rally during 2025 also pushed expectations very high. Ahead of the report, call option volume often topped 2 million contracts per day, showing how crowded the bullish trade became. When many buyers are already positioned for upside, even a strong beat can lead to only a modest initial move. Even after this strong report, NVDA’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is still above 35. That valuation depends on near-flawless execution. The stock is also sensitive to interest rates, especially in the environment we have seen since late 2025. Any unexpected macro news could still pressure even the strongest names. Because of that, bullish positions should have clearly defined risk. With strong guidance for next quarter, bullish positions can still make sense, but they should be built to manage cost. A call debit spread—buying a call and selling another call at a higher strike—can target further upside while reducing the upfront premium. It also fits a view that the data center business remains the main driver. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.BNY’s Geoff Yu warns that crowded carry trades have left Brazilian assets overexposed after strong inflows in February 2026, increasing rebalancing risks
Brazilian assets such as the BRL and the IBOVESPA saw strong inflows in February 2026, leaving positioning stretched. High real interest rates and strong fixed income returns have pulled in more capital. This raises the risk of rebalancing in both equities and bonds.
The BRL was the most bought emerging market currency in iFlow during February. The IBOVESPA was on track to end February up more than 25% year to date, alongside strong gains in Brazil’s fixed income market.
Rebalancing Risks In Focus
Rebalancing pressure was said to be stronger in fixed income. This was linked to high real rates and wider inflows into Latin America. Colombia’s rate hike was also cited as a factor that may have increased expectations for tighter policy across the region. Overall exposure to Brazilian assets was described as excessive. That increases the chance that investors will cut holdings to rebalance. This was presented as an alternative to increasing currency hedges. The BRL, ZAR, and MXN were listed as currencies exposed to hedging flows, with Brazil also facing the risk of asset selling. With the Selic rate already restrictive in nominal terms, the scope for faster tightening was described as limited, given political risk. We saw a big rush into Brazilian assets in February, pushing the IBOVESPA up more than 25% since the start of the year. This also made the BRL one of the best-performing emerging market currencies this month. But positioning now looks stretched, and the trade is getting crowded.Hedging Ideas For Crowded Trades
The appeal is clear: the Selic rate is still restrictive at 11.75%, offering some of the highest real yields in the world. But that success has left many global funds overweight Brazil. To stay within portfolio limits, they may need to sell assets to rebalance. That could trigger a sharp pullback in the coming weeks. Because of this rebalancing risk, it may make sense to add downside protection. Buying put options on the IBOVESPA, or on a related ETF like EWZ, can help hedge a stock market drop. Buying call options on USD/BRL can also help, as they would gain if the Real weakens. A useful example is the 2013 taper tantrum, viewed from our 2025 perspective. It showed how quickly these trades can unwind. When global sentiment turns, crowded carry trades like the BRL are often among the first to see outflows. That history suggests any reversal could be fast and deep. Do not expect the central bank to offer much more support by raising rates further. The Selic rate is already high enough to slow economic activity, and further hikes would likely face strong political resistance. That leaves the BRL vulnerable if selling pressure builds. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP/JPY rose again as the yen weakened after Takaichi nominated dovish academics, trading near 212.00
GBP/JPY rose for a second day, gaining more than 0.80%, as the Yen weakened. The move followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s nomination of two dovish academics to the Bank of Japan board. The pair traded at 211.94, just under the day’s high of 212.12.
The pair bounced from around 207.62, where the 100-day SMA lined up with a support trendline. The RSI moved above 50, which suggests bullish momentum is improving.
Key Resistance Levels
Resistance is at 212.00. A break above 212.00 opens the way to 214.44, then 215.00. Beyond that, watch 215.88 and then 219.32. These levels come from the July 2008 peak and an August 2007 monthly low that later acted as resistance. Support is at the 50-day SMA near 211.11, followed by 209.68. Below that, the next levels are 208.14 and 208.00. This uptrend restarted sharply around this time last year, in February 2025. Dovish Bank of Japan appointments triggered a strong rally and pushed the pair toward 212.00, with buyers in control. The fundamentals are changing now, so a different approach may be needed in the coming weeks.Macro Drivers And Policy Divergence
Last year’s main driver—a weak Yen—is now being tested by sticky domestic inflation. Japan’s core CPI for January 2026 unexpectedly rose to 2.8%. That has increased expectations that the Bank of Japan could signal a policy shift by Q2. This would be a clear change from the dovish tone seen through 2025. At the same time, Sterling is under pressure. The UK’s preliminary GDP for Q4 2025 confirmed a technical recession, with a 0.2% contraction. This weakness is raising the chance the Bank of England considers rate cuts later this year. If the BoJ turns more hawkish while the BoE turns more dovish, the long-running uptrend could reverse. Because a reversal is possible, buying put options on GBP/JPY is worth considering. With the pair trading near 210.00, puts with a strike around 208.00 and expiry in April or May 2026 offer a defined-risk way to benefit from a drop. This approach avoids the unlimited risk that comes with shorting the pair outright. If you think the bullish push may continue in the short term, a more conservative alternative is a bearish call spread. Sell a call at a lower strike (such as 212.50) and buy a call at a higher strike (such as 214.50). This can generate premium while keeping risk capped. The position benefits if the pair moves sideways or falls moderately. From a technical view, the 208.00 and 208.14 support zone is now key. A clean break below 208.00 would strongly suggest the multi-year uptrend is ending. That would likely invite more selling and support a more aggressive bearish view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After hotter-than-expected January CPI, the Australian dollar rose to two-week highs, boosting expectations of an RBA rate hike
The Australian Dollar rose to almost a two-week high after January inflation came in above forecasts. AUD/USD gained more than 0.85% to around 0.7120 after CPI rose 3.8% year on year and trimmed mean CPI edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%.
The US Dollar Index fell toward 97.70 as uncertainty over US trade policy weighed on the currency. EUR/USD traded near 1.1800 and was up more than 0.20%, after softer Eurozone inflation reinforced expectations that the ECB will keep policy steady.
Key G10 Moves And Inflation Signals
GBP/USD traded near 1.3550, a one-week high, after a period of consolidation. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said a March rate cut is possible, while noting that services inflation remains high. USD/JPY traded around 156.40, close to an almost three-week high, as markets weighed uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s rate path. Gold traded near $5,205, up 0.75% on the day, after falling earlier in the week. Upcoming data includes Tokyo February CPI and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. On Friday, releases include Swiss Q4 GDP, Germany’s February flash CPI and HICP, Canadian Q4 GDP, and the US Producer Price Index. In 2022, central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion, the largest annual purchase on record. The sharp rise in Australian inflation suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to tighten policy more than markets expected. The 3.8% CPI print is the third straight month above the RBA’s target band. A similar pattern appeared in 2023, ahead of a run of rate hikes. Traders may consider buying Australian Dollar call options, especially versus currencies backed by dovish central banks, such as the Japanese Yen. US Dollar weakness may continue as uncertainty around US trade policy persists. Markets are reacting to renewed trade friction. Recent Census Bureau data showed US exports fell 5% in January 2026, adding to concerns. One way to position for further declines is to buy put options on the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the Producer Price Index report.Options Strategies To Watch
The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan stays cautious on raising interest rates. This widening policy gap has not been this pronounced since 2022–2024, when other central banks were hiking aggressively. One strategy to consider is buying AUD/JPY call options, which could benefit from potential RBA tightening and Japan’s continued easy policy. Gold’s rally above $5,200 is being supported by a mix of geopolitical risk and a weaker US Dollar. It is also backed by strong institutional demand. Central bank buying hit record levels in 2022, and reports suggest it accelerated again in late 2025, led by major emerging economies. Buying gold call options, or using call spreads to reduce upfront cost, can still be a practical way to hedge ongoing uncertainty. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.OCBC strategists see USD/CNY falling and watch the fix as RMB strength persists amid softer dollar sentiment
USD/CNY dropped sharply after the Spring Festival holidays, following a weaker USD/CNH. The move came after a softer U.S. dollar and better risk sentiment, along with a belief that policymakers are comfortable with a stronger renminbi.
Now the focus is on the daily fixing levels. Traders are watching to see whether authorities allow faster gains or try to slow them. Today’s fix, and the next few sessions, will be closely monitored for signals on the pace of renminbi appreciation.
Downside Bias And Key Levels
Price action still shows a downside bias, although a quick rebound is possible. Key support sits at 6.8465–6.85. If that zone breaks, the next support is near 6.82. The report says the renminbi’s strength was driven by several factors, not a single trigger. It also notes the article was produced with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Looking back to early 2025, the yuan strengthened sharply as the dollar weakened and markets believed policymakers were fine with a stronger currency. Traders focused on the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) daily fix to see whether USD/CNY would break the key 6.85 support level. That strength was largely supported by improved risk sentiment after the holiday period. Over the past year, that downside bias in USD/CNY has reversed. The dollar has regained strength, supported by January 2026 U.S. inflation data showing persistent 3.2% inflation. This is very different from 2025 and changes the outlook for the yuan.Policy Signals And Positioning
China’s economic backdrop has also changed. The January 2026 trade surplus narrowed to $78 billion, slightly below forecasts. This could push officials to prefer a weaker currency to support exports. This week, the PBoC’s daily fixes have repeatedly been set weaker than market estimates, keeping the pair above 7.02. With this shift in policy, the risk of a sharp snapback—raised last year—has already played out and is now the main trend. The current approach is to position for further yuan weakness, which implies a higher USD/CNY. Derivatives traders may consider buying USD/CNY call options to gain upside exposure with defined risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Musalem says inflation is nearly one point above the Fed’s goal as employment cools gradually and orderly
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation is nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s target, while the labour market is cooling in an orderly way. He spoke at the Missouri Athletic Club Speaker Series on Wednesday.
He said his base outlook is for the economy to grow at or above 2%. He also said financial conditions remain accommodative, helped by deregulation and fiscal tailwinds. He expects unemployment to level off around 4.3% to 4.4%.
Inflation And Labor Market Backdrop
Musalem said about half of the extra inflation is coming from tariffs, and he expects that effect to fade as the year goes on. He added that inflation could stay high for longer, but that is not his base case. He said the job market could be exposed to higher layoffs, but again, that is not his base case. He also said policy is well balanced and is now neutral in real terms. He said a government shutdown may have pushed CPI inflation lower, and that this could last through April. Because of this, he said PCE inflation may be a better measure. He added that the Fed still needs to bring inflation back to target. In his view, that could support spending and growth, and it could also bring down the 10-year yield. He said he is looking forward to seeing what Warsh’s priorities will be, and he expects the Fed to keep focusing on its dual mandate under a new chair.Market Implications In 2026
In 2025, the view was that fading tariff effects would pull inflation down. But the January 2026 CPI report showed inflation is still sticky at 2.6% year over year. This makes the return to the 2% target look slower than expected. The labour market is also still cooling in a steady, orderly way, as expected last year. The January 2026 jobs report showed unemployment ticking up to 4.2%, which is still strong by historical standards. For traders, this reduces the pressure on the Fed to cut rates because of job-market weakness. It supports a “higher for longer” view. A key change from last year is Fed leadership. In 2025, this was still only speculation. Now Chair Warsh has been confirmed and is leading the Fed. Markets are pricing in a more hawkish approach. His public comments have stressed “finishing the job” on inflation, similar to periods like 2022 when the central bank’s resolve was tested. With more uncertainty, assuming volatility stays low is risky. Demand is rising for options that protect against higher interest-rate volatility. Futures markets also show that the chance of a rate cut before mid-year has nearly disappeared. Strategies that benefit from a sideways, range-bound market may work better while the Fed stays on hold. Last year’s view that financial conditions were accommodative is now being tested. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 25 basis points in February 2026 alone, reaching 4.5% as markets reset expectations under a more hawkish Fed. This suggests that what looked “neutral” in 2025 is now seen as not restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Societe Generale says USD/ZAR is consolidating, but missing the 50-day average risks deeper losses below the range floor
USD/ZAR is trading sideways after bottoming near 15.63 last month. The 50-day moving average is around 16.25–16.40, which also marks the top of the recent range.
If the pair cannot break above 16.25–16.40, the downtrend may resume. A move below 15.63 could open the way to 15.45–15.30, and then 15.00.
South Africa Fiscal Backdrop Improves
South Africa’s public finances look better than expected. Tax revenue has come in stronger, and the growth picture has improved. The budget deficit is tracking the 4.5% of GDP target, and lower fiscal risk is supportive for South African government bonds. For the rand, valuation is starting to look stretched. The real effective exchange rate is near 113 versus a 10-year average of 106. At the same time, SARB rate cuts are reducing the carry advantage. In options markets, the 3-month USD/ZAR risk reversal is about 2.67. That is more bearish than during last year’s tariff-related volatility and suggests positioning for a rebound in USD/ZAR. We expect USD/ZAR to retest the bottom of its recent range. The pair has struggled to break above the 50-day moving average, which is acting as resistance near 16.25. It is now hovering just above the key 15.63 pivot low, so the next few weeks are likely to be decisive. If this support fails, the downside move could accelerate.Options Strategies And Key Levels
A clear break below 15.63 would likely extend the decline toward 15.45 and possibly 15.00. This view is supported by South Africa’s improving fiscal outlook. The budget delivered earlier this month showed the deficit narrowing toward 3.9% of GDP, helped by stronger-than-expected tax revenue. Ongoing fiscal consolidation is also making South Africa’s government bonds more attractive. That said, we think the risk of a sharp rebound higher in USD/ZAR is increasing. The rand’s real effective exchange rate is near 113, well above its 10-year average of 106. In addition, the South African Reserve Bank cut its main rate last month to 6.25%, which reduces the yield advantage that has supported the currency. With less carry, holding ZAR becomes less appealing. Options pricing also points to more concern about rand weakness. The 3-month risk reversal is wider than it was during the trade-related volatility seen in 2025. This suggests traders are buying protection against a weaker rand. As a result, buying USD/ZAR call options may be a relatively low-cost way to position for a bounce. Traders looking for mean reversion could use calls to gain upside exposure if 15.63 holds. For traders expecting more ZAR strength, buying put options with a strike just below 15.60 could be an effective approach. This would benefit from a confirmed breakdown if the fiscal story continues to support the rand. The key is to look for follow-through selling, especially if the pair closes below 15.63 for several days in a row. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CHF slips for a fourth session, trading near 0.7729 in a 0.7718–0.7757 range, above the 20-day SMA
USD/CHF has fallen for a fourth straight trading day, down 0.14%. Over the past three days, it has traded in a tight 0.7718–0.7757 range. It was last at 0.7729, just above the 20-day SMA at 0.7726.
Price action is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle within a broader downtrend. A break below triangle support around 0.7650–0.7665 would signal a likely continuation lower.
Technical Momentum Remains Bearish
The RSI remains bearish and is trending lower, which keeps downside risks in focus. If support breaks, the pair could re-test the year-to-date low at 0.7603 (set on 27 January). Below that, 0.7600 is the next level, followed by the August 2011 low at 0.7069. On the upside, rebounds may be limited by triangle resistance near 0.7772 and the 0.7800 level. Additional resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA (0.7841) and the 100-day SMA (0.7911). At this point in 2025, USD/CHF was also consolidating in a bearish symmetrical triangle, which pointed to a continuation of the downtrend. The pattern later broke down, with sellers pushing the pair below the key support trendline near 0.7650. The bearish RSI momentum noted at the time also proved to be a useful signal for the subsequent decline. The selloff accelerated in the second half of 2025. A key driver was the Swiss National Bank keeping its policy rate at 1.75% to fight inflation, which was last reported in January 2026 at a still-elevated 2.1% year-over-year. This stance has contrasted with the Federal Reserve’s pause, narrowing the rate gap and supporting the franc. Since then, the pair has broken below the 2025 low of 0.7603 and moved into a new, lower trading range.Options Positioning For Continued Weakness
Right now, the pair is finding temporary support near 0.7420, but the broader technical setup remains weak. Any rally toward the 0.7500 psychological level may attract heavy selling. Momentum still suggests the path of least resistance is lower. Over the coming weeks, selling call options or using bear call spreads with strikes near 0.7500 may offer an attractive approach. This can generate premium while keeping risk defined, based on the view that upside moves may be short-lived. With limited upside potential, selling into strength may be preferable to buying dips. Traders expecting the main downtrend to continue could also consider buying put options with strikes below 0.7400. This offers a defined-risk way to position for a possible move toward multi-year lows. The next Swiss inflation report will be important to watch, as a higher-than-expected reading could trigger another wave of USD/CHF selling. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.XAG/USD climbs near $91 as easing tariff worries and supply shortages fuel safe-haven buying and a strong rebound
XAG/USD gained about 4% on Wednesday and closed near $91. That put it back above $90 for the first time since the late-January sell-off. The move followed an earlier drop from above $121 to around $64 in early February—a decline of roughly 47%.
The bounce came as tariff fears eased and safe-haven demand increased after President Trump announced 15% global tariffs. COMEX registered inventories stayed below 100 million ounces, and physical supply in London remained tight.
