Cautious optimism lifted the DJIA 200 points toward 49,400 as markets awaited Nvidia’s after-hours quarterly results
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 200 points (0.4%) to around 49,400. The S&P 500 gained 0.54% to about 6,927, and the Nasdaq added roughly 1%. Markets built on Tuesday’s rebound, with quiet trading ahead of Nvidia’s fiscal Q4 2026 results after the close.
Nvidia was expected to report earnings per share of $1.53 on revenue of $65.7bn. That suggests about 68% to 72% year-on-year growth. Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon signaled more than $500bn in 2026 capex. Nvidia shares were about 1% higher, and Polymarket put the chance of an earnings beat at 94.5%.
Nordea says subdued Swedish services inflation keeps the Riksbank cautious, despite expected CPIF figures
Sweden’s January CPIF and CPIF excluding energy were in line with the flash estimates. Services inflation was weaker than expected. Core services prices (excluding foreign travel and administratively set prices) fell.
Car rental prices dropped, and hotel accommodation prices declined, which was described as seasonal. Goods prices also fell, but not as much as expected.
Inflation Details Point To Softer Outlook
Nordea said the breakdown of the data suggests a weaker inflation outlook and could lead it to lower its inflation path. Nordea’s forecast for CPIF excluding energy was already below the Riksbank’s view even before the January release. Nordea still expects the Riksbank to keep the policy rate at 1.75%. It said a rate cut is now a clear possibility. The latest inflation data for January 2026 showed a large downside surprise in services prices. Core services inflation fell more than we expected, led by notable declines in car rentals and hotel accommodation. This unexpected weakness is an important detail for the Riksbank. Overall, we see these details as dovish and consistent with a lower inflation path ahead. Because of this, we are revising our inflation forecast downward. While we still expect the Riksbank to keep the policy rate at 1.75%, a rate cut now looks clearly possible.Market Implications For Rates And SEK
This follows the Riksbank’s sharp rate cuts from a peak of 4.00% during 2024 and 2025 to support the economy. The recent rebound has been strong, with GDP up 0.7% in the last quarter of 2025, which complicates the decision. This strength is the main reason not to cut rates right away. For interest rate derivatives traders, the data supports positioning for a more dovish Riksbank than previously expected. The market may start to price a higher chance of a rate cut later this year, which could push front-end government bond yields lower. Strategies that benefit from falling short-term rates, such as buying put options on Swedish interest rate futures, may now look more attractive. This potential shift should also be monitored in currency markets, especially for the Swedish krona. The prospect of lower rates compared with other central banks could put fresh downward pressure on SEK. Traders could consider buying put options on the krona against the euro to position for further weakness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As the dollar loses momentum, EUR/USD rebounds as the euro pares earlier losses, trading near 1.1805
EUR/USD rose on Wednesday as the US Dollar lost strength. The pair traded near 1.1805 after hitting a daily low around 1.1771. The move followed new trade tension tied to US tariff action.
President Donald Trump announced a 10% global tariff after the US Supreme Court ruled last week against his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The tariff started on Tuesday under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The White House said it is preparing a formal order to raise the rate to 15%.
Trade Tensions And Policy Signals
The European Parliament has paused the ratification of the US-EU trade deal agreed last year. At the same time, the US Dollar got some support as markets cut bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with inflation still judged against the 2% target. In the Eurozone, final figures showed HICP inflation at 1.7% year on year in January. That is down from 2.0% in December and the lowest level in 16 months. Core inflation eased to 2.2% from 2.3%, and markets now expect ECB rates to stay unchanged through 2026. Eurozone Consumer Confidence and the Economic Sentiment Indicator are due on Thursday. US PPI data is due on Friday. The rebound in EUR/USD toward 1.1800 gives a mixed outlook for the weeks ahead. The Fed is still cautious about cutting rates, but the new tariff news is weighing on the US Dollar. This mix raises the chance of sharp, sudden moves.Options Market Signals
This uncertainty is showing up in the options market. The Cboe EUR/USD Volatility Index has risen to 7.8% this week, up from the lows earlier this month. This suggests traders expect a wider range of outcomes for the pair in the near term. The main theme of policy divergence is still limiting a stronger euro rally. The yield spread between German and US 2-year government bonds has widened further, which supports the dollar. That makes euro gains feel fragile and more driven by political headlines than by economic data. With political risk higher after last week’s tariff announcement, buying volatility may be a sensible approach. Buying an at-the-money straddle on EUR/USD allows a position to benefit from a large move in either direction. This helps protect against being on the wrong side of the next major trade headline from the White House. For those who think the recent low near 1.1771 will hold, selling out-of-the-money puts is another option. This strategy earns income from higher volatility while setting a clear risk limit. Still, caution is needed, because a sudden escalation in trade disputes could push the pair below this support. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.NZD/USD rises toward 0.5980 after Trump’s address to Congress as the US dollar weakens, extending gains
NZD/USD traded near 0.5980 on Wednesday. It was up 0.27% on the day, extending its rebound for a second session. The move followed US Dollar weakness after President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress.
Trump said the US economy had seen a “turnaround for the ages”, pointing to easing inflation and solid growth. He said tariffs had helped. He also warned of higher duties on countries that “play games” with recent trade agreements, after the Supreme Court blocked several global tariff measures.
Trade Uncertainty Weighs On Dollar
These remarks added to trade uncertainty and pressured the US Dollar. Still, the downside in the Dollar was limited. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, which supports US yields. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%. It said policy remains accommodative as inflation moves toward the midpoint of its target range. Governor Anna Breman said improving conditions should lift growth this year without a sharp rise in inflation pressures. Money markets do not expect a rate increase until late in the year. This could limit further New Zealand Dollar gains against the US Dollar. Looking back to early 2025, NZD/USD got a temporary boost from US political noise. The State of the Union address created enough trade uncertainty to weaken the Dollar briefly. This opened a short window of opportunity near the 0.5980 level.Positioning For Headline Driven Volatility
We should keep looking for this pattern: political headlines that trigger short-term volatility. We saw similar jumps during the 2018–2019 trade disputes, when the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) often rose above 20 on tariff news. Buying options to target these temporary moves remains a viable strategy. However, the expected monetary-policy divergence that was meant to cap the Kiwi’s strength never fully appeared. Last year, we focused on a hawkish Fed, but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also had to stay aggressive. As of this month, the RBNZ’s official cash rate is 5.50%, still above the Fed’s current 5.33%. The main driver now is the inflation gap between the two countries. New Zealand inflation remains stubbornly high, last reported at 4.7%. The latest US CPI is closer to 3.1%. This suggests the RBNZ has less room to cut rates than the Fed, which provides underlying support for the NZD. Given this, we should consider buying NZD/USD call options with expirations over the next three to six weeks. This can help us capture the Kiwi’s fundamental support from higher rates and higher inflation. It also allows us to treat politically driven dips as cheaper entry points for bullish positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Sterling rises against the dollar as U.S. trade uncertainty stalls the greenback, with megacap earnings due later
The Pound Sterling rose in the North American session while the US Dollar stayed flat, as uncertainty over US trade policy weighed on sentiment. GBP/USD traded at 1.3523, up 0.29%.
Markets were focused on an earnings report due after the Wall Street close. The report was expected from one of the seven megacap companies.
Policy Divergence Supports Sterling
The Pound is holding near 1.35, a big move up from the ranges seen through most of 2025. Much of this strength comes from the Bank of England keeping rates higher for longer to fight the persistent inflation seen last year. By contrast, the US Federal Reserve started cutting rates in late 2025. This policy gap supports Sterling. The US Dollar is also being held back by uncertainty around the new US trade frameworks introduced after the elections. Volatility is rising too: implied volatility on Sterling options, measured by the BPVIX index, reached a six-month high of 9.8% last week. In this kind of market, it may make more sense to trade the bigger price swings than to rely on a simple one-way view. For traders looking for more Sterling strength, buying GBP/USD call options expiring in 45 to 60 days can capture upside while keeping risk defined. The setup looks similar to Q3 2025, when a comparable central bank split led to a sharp rally. A bull call spread can reduce the premium paid, which matters with volatility currently elevated. Still, the rally may be stretched. The 1.3550 level has often been strong resistance. The latest CFTC data also shows non-commercial net long Pound positions at the highest level in more than two years, which suggests the trade is getting crowded. Traders concerned about a pullback could consider buying out-of-the-money put options to hedge against a sudden drop.Key Risks And Positioning
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.With Nvidia’s Q4 earnings imminent, the S&P 500 remains range-bound as investors await results
Nvidia will report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell as the S&P 500 trades in a narrow range. Investors are watching the report against a $66 billion revenue target, with Nvidia’s GTC event coming next month.
Nvidia shares have been stuck between $171 and $194, with a mid-point near $182. The next major resistance is $196, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline that started in November 2025.
Key Earnings Focus
The main question is whether Blackwell chip manufacturing costs will pressure Nvidia’s ~75% profit margins. Markets also want any update on the Vera Rubin chip architecture ahead of GTC. A move above $194 could run into resistance at $196. If price reverses there, it could fall back toward $182 and then $171. If results are strong and margin worries fade, a break above $196 could set up a retest of record highs. The S&P 500 has pulled back from the $7,000 ceiling and is now trading between $6,700 and $6,990. A tighter near-term range has formed between $6,830 and $6,900. The index was rejected at $6,909 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance) and is trading below the 1-hour 200-EMA. The 1-hour Stochastic RSI is rising toward overbought. A strong Nvidia report could lift the index toward $6,990 to $7,000. A weak report could keep trading stuck between $6,900 and $6,830.Options Market Positioning
With earnings only hours away, options are pricing in a very large move of about 15% in Nvidia by week’s end. This high implied volatility shows traders are not positioned for a minor beat or miss, but for a headline-changing outcome. Demand for downside protection is strong, with the put-call skew at its highest level since the broad tech sell-off in late 2025. For a bullish reaction, price needs a high-volume break above $194, but the key test is the $196 resistance. Traders trying to play the upside may look at weekly call options to capture a short-term momentum burst. A clean break through $196 would suggest Blackwell margin fears were overstated and could trigger a fast unwind of bearish positions. If earnings disappoint or margin guidance is weak, the $194–$196 zone becomes a strong ceiling. A rejection there would be a signal to buy puts targeting the $182 mid-range, with a possible drop to the $171 support level if the news is especially negative. This would reinforce concerns about slowing AI spending, a theme that has grown since January corporate earnings calls. Beyond today, comments from CEO Jensen Huang will quickly re-price options ahead of the March GTC event. Any positive signals on next-generation Vera Rubin chips could lift March and April call premiums, even if the initial earnings reaction is modest. Longer-dated positions may need adjusting based on the tone of the call. For the S&P 500, the tight range between $6,830 and $6,900 can suit premium-selling strategies like iron condors. With the index below key moving averages and showing signs of fatigue, selling out-of-the-money calls and puts can benefit if the market stays range-bound. This approach has worked in the choppy trading seen since the failed $7,000 test earlier this month. If Nvidia delivers a strong beat, the S&P 500 could push to the top of the mini-range near $6,900 and quickly move toward the psychological $7,000 level. That would be a reason to close bearish index positions and potentially buy short-dated SPY or SPX calls. A miss, however, would support the recent rejection at $6,909 and could send the index down to test support at $6,830. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US EIA crude oil inventories rose to 15.989M in February, reversing a prior 9.014M decline
US EIA data shows U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 15.989 million barrels in the week ending 20 February.
The previous reading showed a drop of 9.014 million barrels.
Bearish Inventory Surprise
The move from a large draw to a nearly 16 million barrel build is a clear bearish signal. It points to weaker demand, extra supply, or both—and the market did not appear to be priced for it. We think traders should consider positioning for lower prices in the near term, such as buying puts on major oil ETFs or shorting front-month futures. This jump in inventories also fits growing worries about global demand. China’s January 2026 PMI fell below 50 to 49.8, which signals a contraction in manufacturing. A slowdown in the world’s largest oil importer directly weakens demand and can pressure prices. That supports the idea that this inventory build may be part of a broader trend, not a one-off event. On the supply side, U.S. crude production has stayed high, holding above 13.5 million barrels per day—similar to the steady output growth seen in 2024 and 2025. At the same time, refinery utilization has slid to 80.5%, meaning refineries are processing less crude into gasoline and distillates. High production plus lower refinery demand helps explain why more barrels are ending up in storage.Options Market Positioning
After the report, implied volatility on near-term options jumped, showing the market was surprised and uncertainty increased. Traders who think the move is overdone could sell out-of-the-money call spreads to collect premium while betting prices won’t rebound sharply. Traders expecting more downside could use bear put spreads to limit risk and lower the cost of a bearish position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.With trade policy doubts persisting, a stable US dollar lets sterling lift GBP/USD as earnings loom
GBP/USD rose during the North American session on Wednesday as the US Dollar paused amid uncertainty over US trade policy. The pair traded at 1.3523, up 0.29%.
With little US or UK data, markets focused on comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials, as well as expectations for interest-rate changes. The BoE previously held the Bank Rate in a 5–4 vote, and money markets have priced in 18 basis points of easing by the 19 March meeting.
Central Bank Signals And Market Pricing
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said a March cut is possible, but noted that services inflation remains high. In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said cuts make sense if inflation continues to fall, but warned against “front loading” reductions without clear evidence inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the labour market is steady but easing, while progress on inflation remains uneven. Markets do not expect a Fed cut at the next meeting. Traders have priced in 50 basis points of easing for the rest of the year, based on Prime Market Terminal data. On Thursday, the UK calendar is empty, with comments due from BoE’s Lombardelli. In the US, traders will watch Initial Jobless Claims and a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. From a technical view, GBP/USD traded near 1.3528, with broader support at 1.3035 and resistance at 1.3869. Near-term resistance is around 1.3560, with higher levels at 1.3680 and 1.3835. Support is near 1.3500, then 1.3460 and 1.3400.Shift In Policy Divergence Since Early 2025
In early 2025, markets expected the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to cut rates at a similar pace. That has changed. Data from early 2026 now points to a clear policy split between the two central banks, and this divide has become the main driver of GBP/USD. A BoE cut—seen as possible in March 2025—is no longer expected because services inflation remains stubbornly high. The latest January report showed services inflation at 5.9%. As a result, derivatives markets are now pricing in nearly 30 basis points of additional tightening from the BoE by year-end. This more hawkish pricing supports Sterling and keeps buying on major dips on the radar. In the US, the 50 basis points of cuts expected for 2025 did happen, but further easing has slowed. A strong January 2026 jobs report, showing 225,000 new jobs, has pushed back expectations for a March cut. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the chance of a March cut at only 15%, which helps support the US Dollar. This policy tension could bring more volatility in the coming weeks. Implied volatility in 3-month GBP/USD options has risen from about 6.5% late last year to above 8.2%, suggesting the market expects bigger swings. Traders may consider options strategies, such as strangles, to position for a possible breakout from the recent range. The technical setup discussed in 2025 is no longer relevant. The rising support trendline near 1.3500 was decisively broken late last year. That level now acts as major resistance, and the pair is currently struggling near 1.3310. The key downside level to watch is the post-Brexit support zone around 1.3200. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold steadies after rebound as traders assess US tariffs, Iran talks and Fed expectations
Gold edged up on Wednesday after Tuesday’s losses. XAU/USD traded near $5,192 after dipping to $5,121. A steady US Dollar and stronger equities capped gains.
Trade worries returned after Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from all countries. This follows a US Supreme Court ruling that limits the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Geopolitical And Trade Uncertainty
Markets are also watching US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday. Trump said he prefers diplomacy. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to take steps toward an agreement. Expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have cooled as officials point to ongoing inflation pressure. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee referenced the 2% inflation target, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said rates may stay unchanged “for some time”. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains below $5,250 and is forming a rising wedge pattern. RSI (14) has dropped from above 70 to the high-50s. MACD (12, 26, 9) has crossed below its signal line, and the histogram is negative. A break above $5,250 could open the way to $5,500. A move below $5,100 may expose the 100-period SMA near $5,012, followed by $4,850 and $4,650.Strategy And Risk Management
Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders weigh major geopolitical risks against a firm Federal Reserve. The new 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and the upcoming Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are boosting demand for safe havens like gold. However, the strong U.S. dollar remains a key headwind and is limiting any rally. We have seen a similar setup before with trade policy. In 2019, gold rose more than 20% during the height of the U.S.-China trade conflict. With U.S. GDP growth slowing to 1.1% in Q4 2025, new tariffs could increase recession risk and make gold more attractive. Uncertainty around the Iran talks adds another layer of support. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is not supporting the bullish case. Policymakers remain focused on inflation. The latest January CPI report showed core inflation still elevated at 3.8%, and Fed officials are pushing back on market expectations for rate cuts. Fed funds futures have repriced sharply, with the odds of a March cut falling from above 70% last month to below 30% today. This clash of fundamentals, along with technical signals that momentum is fading, makes it risky to choose a simple long or short trade right now. Instead, consider options strategies that can benefit from a large move in either direction. A long straddle—buying both a call and a put with a strike near the current $5,200 level—fits this type of market. This approach can profit if gold breaks strongly above $5,250 on negative geopolitical headlines, or drops below $5,100 on hawkish Fed commentary. The premium paid is the maximum risk, giving a defined-risk way to trade expected volatility. This can be safer than holding a futures contract that may get whipsawed by conflicting headlines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.BNP Paribas reports eurozone banks expect tighter household credit than corporate lending in 2026, driven by CRR3 requirements
Eurozone banks expect slightly tighter credit standards for households than for corporations in 2026, according to the ECB Bank Lending Survey. Banks link this change to higher regulatory capital and liquidity requirements under CRR3 and the output floor.
Only a small share of banks plans to change standards. For housing loans, 10% of banks expect a slight tightening, 3% a strong tightening, and 1% a slight easing.
