With Nvidia’s Q4 earnings imminent, the S&P 500 remains range-bound as investors await results
Nvidia will report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell as the S&P 500 trades in a narrow range. Investors are watching the report against a $66 billion revenue target, with Nvidia’s GTC event coming next month.
Nvidia shares have been stuck between $171 and $194, with a mid-point near $182. The next major resistance is $196, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline that started in November 2025.
US EIA crude oil inventories rose to 15.989M in February, reversing a prior 9.014M decline
US EIA data shows U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 15.989 million barrels in the week ending 20 February.
The previous reading showed a drop of 9.014 million barrels.
Bearish Inventory Surprise
The move from a large draw to a nearly 16 million barrel build is a clear bearish signal. It points to weaker demand, extra supply, or both—and the market did not appear to be priced for it. We think traders should consider positioning for lower prices in the near term, such as buying puts on major oil ETFs or shorting front-month futures. This jump in inventories also fits growing worries about global demand. China’s January 2026 PMI fell below 50 to 49.8, which signals a contraction in manufacturing. A slowdown in the world’s largest oil importer directly weakens demand and can pressure prices. That supports the idea that this inventory build may be part of a broader trend, not a one-off event. On the supply side, U.S. crude production has stayed high, holding above 13.5 million barrels per day—similar to the steady output growth seen in 2024 and 2025. At the same time, refinery utilization has slid to 80.5%, meaning refineries are processing less crude into gasoline and distillates. High production plus lower refinery demand helps explain why more barrels are ending up in storage.Options Market Positioning
After the report, implied volatility on near-term options jumped, showing the market was surprised and uncertainty increased. Traders who think the move is overdone could sell out-of-the-money call spreads to collect premium while betting prices won’t rebound sharply. Traders expecting more downside could use bear put spreads to limit risk and lower the cost of a bearish position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.With trade policy doubts persisting, a stable US dollar lets sterling lift GBP/USD as earnings loom
GBP/USD rose during the North American session on Wednesday as the US Dollar paused amid uncertainty over US trade policy. The pair traded at 1.3523, up 0.29%.
With little US or UK data, markets focused on comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of England officials, as well as expectations for interest-rate changes. The BoE previously held the Bank Rate in a 5–4 vote, and money markets have priced in 18 basis points of easing by the 19 March meeting.
Central Bank Signals And Market Pricing
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said a March cut is possible, but noted that services inflation remains high. In the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said cuts make sense if inflation continues to fall, but warned against “front loading” reductions without clear evidence inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the labour market is steady but easing, while progress on inflation remains uneven. Markets do not expect a Fed cut at the next meeting. Traders have priced in 50 basis points of easing for the rest of the year, based on Prime Market Terminal data. On Thursday, the UK calendar is empty, with comments due from BoE’s Lombardelli. In the US, traders will watch Initial Jobless Claims and a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. From a technical view, GBP/USD traded near 1.3528, with broader support at 1.3035 and resistance at 1.3869. Near-term resistance is around 1.3560, with higher levels at 1.3680 and 1.3835. Support is near 1.3500, then 1.3460 and 1.3400.Shift In Policy Divergence Since Early 2025
In early 2025, markets expected the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to cut rates at a similar pace. That has changed. Data from early 2026 now points to a clear policy split between the two central banks, and this divide has become the main driver of GBP/USD. A BoE cut—seen as possible in March 2025—is no longer expected because services inflation remains stubbornly high. The latest January report showed services inflation at 5.9%. As a result, derivatives markets are now pricing in nearly 30 basis points of additional tightening from the BoE by year-end. This more hawkish pricing supports Sterling and keeps buying on major dips on the radar. In the US, the 50 basis points of cuts expected for 2025 did happen, but further easing has slowed. A strong January 2026 jobs report, showing 225,000 new jobs, has pushed back expectations for a March cut. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the chance of a March cut at only 15%, which helps support the US Dollar. This policy tension could bring more volatility in the coming weeks. Implied volatility in 3-month GBP/USD options has risen from about 6.5% late last year to above 8.2%, suggesting the market expects bigger swings. Traders may consider options strategies, such as strangles, to position for a possible breakout from the recent range. The technical setup discussed in 2025 is no longer relevant. The rising support trendline near 1.3500 was decisively broken late last year. That level now acts as major resistance, and the pair is currently struggling near 1.3310. The key downside level to watch is the post-Brexit support zone around 1.3200. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold steadies after rebound as traders assess US tariffs, Iran talks and Fed expectations
Gold edged up on Wednesday after Tuesday’s losses. XAU/USD traded near $5,192 after dipping to $5,121. A steady US Dollar and stronger equities capped gains.
Trade worries returned after Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from all countries. This follows a US Supreme Court ruling that limits the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Geopolitical And Trade Uncertainty
Markets are also watching US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva on Thursday. Trump said he prefers diplomacy. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is ready to take steps toward an agreement. Expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have cooled as officials point to ongoing inflation pressure. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee referenced the 2% inflation target, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said rates may stay unchanged “for some time”. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains below $5,250 and is forming a rising wedge pattern. RSI (14) has dropped from above 70 to the high-50s. MACD (12, 26, 9) has crossed below its signal line, and the histogram is negative. A break above $5,250 could open the way to $5,500. A move below $5,100 may expose the 100-period SMA near $5,012, followed by $4,850 and $4,650.Strategy And Risk Management
Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders weigh major geopolitical risks against a firm Federal Reserve. The new 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and the upcoming Iran nuclear talks in Geneva are boosting demand for safe havens like gold. However, the strong U.S. dollar remains a key headwind and is limiting any rally. We have seen a similar setup before with trade policy. In 2019, gold rose more than 20% during the height of the U.S.-China trade conflict. With U.S. GDP growth slowing to 1.1% in Q4 2025, new tariffs could increase recession risk and make gold more attractive. Uncertainty around the Iran talks adds another layer of support. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is not supporting the bullish case. Policymakers remain focused on inflation. The latest January CPI report showed core inflation still elevated at 3.8%, and Fed officials are pushing back on market expectations for rate cuts. Fed funds futures have repriced sharply, with the odds of a March cut falling from above 70% last month to below 30% today. This clash of fundamentals, along with technical signals that momentum is fading, makes it risky to choose a simple long or short trade right now. Instead, consider options strategies that can benefit from a large move in either direction. A long straddle—buying both a call and a put with a strike near the current $5,200 level—fits this type of market. This approach can profit if gold breaks strongly above $5,250 on negative geopolitical headlines, or drops below $5,100 on hawkish Fed commentary. The premium paid is the maximum risk, giving a defined-risk way to trade expected volatility. This can be safer than holding a futures contract that may get whipsawed by conflicting headlines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.BNP Paribas reports eurozone banks expect tighter household credit than corporate lending in 2026, driven by CRR3 requirements
Eurozone banks expect slightly tighter credit standards for households than for corporations in 2026, according to the ECB Bank Lending Survey. Banks link this change to higher regulatory capital and liquidity requirements under CRR3 and the output floor.
Only a small share of banks plans to change standards. For housing loans, 10% of banks expect a slight tightening, 3% a strong tightening, and 1% a slight easing.
Credit Standards Outlook For 2026
The net share of banks expecting further tightening in 2026 is 12%, up from 7% in 2025. This points to more planned tightening in 2026 than in 2025. Even so, lending has increased since June 2025. Over 12 months, cumulative monthly flows of new loans rose 30% year on year for housing and 10% for corporate loans. Overall, some Eurozone banks plan a modest tightening for household credit in 2026. This is slightly more than in 2025 and could mildly slow consumer spending and housing activity. With Eurozone inflation easing to 2.2% in January, tighter credit could also reduce price pressures. Derivatives traders may look at options on EURIBOR futures, expecting the European Central Bank to have less need to stay hawkish on rates. That could support a steadier, more range-bound trend in short-term rates in the coming weeks.Market Implications And Trading Angles
However, the impact may be limited because few banks expect a significant tightening. New loan flows were strong in the second half of 2025, with housing loans up about 30% year on year. This demand suggests the market may handle a modest tightening without major disruption. Taken together, these signals suggest potentially lower volatility in areas like European banking and real estate. One approach could be selling straddles or strangles on indices such as the Euro STOXX Banks Index. This works best if markets react calmly, which the strong loan data suggests is possible. The tightening is more focused on households than on corporations, which could create a gap in performance. Sectors tied to business investment may do better than consumer discretionary. A pairs trade using options—long an industrial sector ETF and short a consumer retail ETF—could express this view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Mexico’s fourth-quarter current account came in at $7,702M, below forecasts of $11,520M
Mexico’s current account balance rose to $7,702 million quarter-on-quarter in Q4. This was below the expected $11,520 million.
The reported balance missed the forecast by $3,818 million. The figure is in US dollars and covers the Q4 period.
The fourth-quarter current account surplus for 2025 came in at $7.7 billion, below our expectation of more than $11.5 billion. This means less foreign currency flowed into Mexico than planned, which is a negative for the peso. This miss could also weaken market sentiment toward the MXN in the coming weeks.
Based on this, we are considering strategies that may benefit from a weaker peso, such as buying USD/MXN call options. The peso has been strong, trading near 17.50 per dollar recently, helped by Mexico’s higher interest rates versus the U.S. This weaker report could be the trigger that lifts the exchange rate toward 18.00.
This report also makes the outlook harder for Banxico ahead of its March meeting. Inflation in January 2026 was still high at 4.5%, but this weaker signal for external demand and growth could push Banxico toward a more dovish message. We will watch interest rate swaps for any shift in pricing of rate cuts later this year.
The weakness likely reflects a softer trade balance, possibly tied to the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing seen in January’s data. Remittances were still strong—above $63 billion for all of 2025—but they were not enough to reach the higher surplus forecast. This may point to early stress in the export-led growth story.
This surprise adds uncertainty around the peso’s next move. For investors without a clear directional view, buying volatility through options such as straddles may be sensible. This approach can profit from a large MXN move in either direction as the market absorbs the news.
Mexico’s accumulated current account-to-GDP ratio rose to 1.6% in Q4, up from 0.49%
Mexico’s accumulated current account balance rose to 1.6% of GDP in the fourth quarter, up from 0.49% in the prior period.
That is an increase of 1.11 percentage points. These figures measure the accumulated current account balance as a share of GDP.
We view this improvement in Mexico’s external accounts as a bullish signal for the Mexican peso. The end-2025 data suggests the country is in a stronger financial position, which could attract more capital. This supports derivative strategies that position for peso strength versus the dollar in the near term.
This positive фундаментals backdrop adds to the high interest-rate differential that has supported the peso. In 2025, this support strengthened as Banxico kept its policy rate at 11.25%. With USD/MXN already testing lows near 17.05 this month, the current account news could provide the push to break below that key psychological level. As a result, we should consider short USD/MXN futures or buying peso call options.
A stronger current account also changes the outlook for monetary policy by giving the central bank more room to maneuver. Inflation is still a risk, but greater external stability could allow Banxico to deliver an initial rate cut sooner than markets expect. We should look at positioning in TIIE futures for a more dovish shift by the second quarter.
With less uncertainty, we expect implied peso volatility to fall. Last year, implied volatility for 3-month USD/MXN options averaged above 14%, but it could now trend lower. That setup can favor option-selling strategies, such as covered calls or short strangles.
This is not a one-off result. It also shows that nearshoring is delivering real gains. Foreign direct investment in Mexico reached a record of more than $40 billion in 2025, and the current account data suggests this is translating into stronger exports and a healthier balance of payments. This structural shift supports a long-term appreciation view for Mexican assets.
As geopolitical and economic risks persist, silver gains traction as buyers support dips and the RSI stays above 50
Silver rose on Wednesday after falling the day before, as buyers returned amid continued geopolitical and economic risks. XAG/USD traded near $90.25, up about 3.38%. A stronger US Dollar, however, limited the upside.
The metal is up almost 24% over the past five sessions and is trading near its highest level in almost three weeks. This comes after a pullback from the late-January record high of $121.66.
Technical Trend Remains Intact
On the daily chart, price has moved back above the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average and is still above the 100-day SMA, both in the low-to-mid $80s. This keeps the broader uptrend in place. The Relative Strength Index is back above 50, which points to improving momentum without signaling overbought conditions. The MACD is moving toward zero as its histogram shrinks, suggesting bearish pressure is easing. Average True Range has dropped from recent highs, showing lower volatility. This can lead to steadier moves instead of sharp swings. Support is near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $86.08, based on the $121.66 high and $64.08 low. Below that, the 23.6% level comes in at $77.67.Key Levels To Watch
Resistance is near the 50% Fibonacci level at $92.87. Above that, the next level is the 61.8% retracement at $99.67. Silver is gaining traction after the sharp pullback from the record highs near $121 in late January. A 24% jump in just five days shows dip-buyers are active, which could help form a new price floor. This rebound suggests we should revisit bullish strategies. The main headwind is the strong US Dollar. It is being supported by the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” rate stance. Recent data is adding to that strength. For example, the January jobs report showed 295,000 new jobs versus 180,000 expected. This dollar strength will likely limit any runaway upside in silver for now. It is also important to note the solid fundamental demand for silver, especially from green energy. In the final quarter of 2025, global solar panel installations rose 15% year over year. This industrial demand helps support prices even when markets are volatile. With momentum improving and the RSI turning positive, $92.87 is the key level. A clear break above it could signal an opportunity to buy long call options or sell bull put spreads, with a more open path toward $99.67. On the downside, risk is centered on the $86.08 support level. A sustained move below it would suggest the bullish move is fading. That makes it an important level for stop-losses or for buying protective puts to hedge long exposure. This setup is similar to patterns seen in 2025, when strong rallies driven by inflation fears often ran into resistance as central bank policy shifted. However, the current drop in volatility suggests this rebound could be steadier than the sharp swings seen last year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.HSBC says GBP/USD looks overvalued as BoE cut expectations grow, keeping sterling under pressure after February’s close vote
HSBC Global Research says GBP/USD looks expensive when compared with interest rate differences. Markets are also starting to expect a more dovish Bank of England. Sterling has been under pressure since the BoE’s 5–4 vote in February to keep policy unchanged.
UK labour market data is due a few hours before the BoE meeting on 19 March. Bloomberg data dated 24 February shows markets pricing about an 80% probability of a 25 bp rate cut.
BoE Outlook And Sterling Valuation
Traders are also watching the BoE’s guidance on how far it could cut rates through the rest of 2026. The article says it was made with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The piece is credited to the FXStreet Insights Team. It is described as a group of journalists who select market observations from different analysts. It says the content includes notes from commercial sources, plus added input from internal and external analysts. We think the British Pound looks overvalued against the US Dollar as the gap between UK and US rate expectations grows. The Bank of England’s narrow 5–4 vote to hold rates earlier this month has kept sterling under heavy pressure. It suggests the BoE is close to loosening policy. Recent data supports this view and makes a cut look more likely. UK inflation has cooled a lot from the high levels seen in 2025. The latest reading is 2.3%, much closer to the Bank’s target. At the same time, fourth-quarter GDP from last year points to an economy that has stalled. This gives the BoE a clear reason to support growth. The US looks different. The economy is still holding up, with core inflation near 2.8% and the latest jobs report coming in stronger than expected. That makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for longer than the BoE. This policy gap is a key negative for GBP/USD.Trading Implications For Options Markets
For derivative traders, this suggests positioning for a weaker pound. One approach could be to buy GBP/USD put options that expire after the 19 March meeting, to benefit if the pair falls. Since the market already prices an 80% chance of a cut, the bigger driver may be the BoE’s forward guidance. The main issue may not be the cut itself, but what the BoE signals for the rest of 2026. If it suggests a run of cuts over the year, sterling could fall much more. Holding bearish positions through the announcement could capture a larger move than the first market reaction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After softer Eurozone inflation and German fourth-quarter GDP data, investors push the euro lower against the pound
EUR/GBP traded near 0.8716 on Wednesday. It fell for a fourth straight day after new Eurozone inflation data and Germany’s Q4 GDP report.
Eurostat’s final estimates showed the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% year-on-year in January. That was down from 2.0% in December and the lowest level in 16 months. It was also the first final reading below the ECB’s 2% target since May 2025. On the month, HICP fell 0.6%.
