NZD/USD posted small gains in early European trade on Tuesday after failing to break above 0.6000 the day before. The pair traded near 0.5960–0.5965, up 0.10%. A firmer US Dollar kept prices below 0.6000. Support for the New Zealand Dollar came from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, who said the bank could tighten sooner if conditions strengthen. Steadier equity markets also helped risk sentiment. Still, the RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in February and maintained an accommodative tone. It expects inflation to return to target over the next year.

Market Drivers And Policy Signals

Markets pushed expectations for the first rate rise out to late 2026, which limited demand for the NZD. Trade worries and modest USD strength also capped NZD/USD gains. US President Donald Trump announced a new global levy of 15% after a Supreme Court ruling against his broader tariffs last Friday. Fears of retaliation, supply-chain disruption, and geopolitical risk supported the USD’s safe-haven appeal. The January FOMC minutes showed several officials saw no need for more easing until disinflation was clearer. Even so, markets still price three 25-basis-point cuts this year. Focus now shifts to US Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, along with Fed speeches and overall risk sentiment. In early 2025, NZD/USD struggled below 0.6000 in a very different rate environment. The RBNZ was holding the OCR at 2.25%, and the market view was that a hike was far off, likely in late 2026. That dovish stance, along with US trade jitters, kept the Kiwi under pressure.

How The Backdrop Shifted In 2026

As of February 24, 2026, the picture looks very different from what was expected a year ago. The RBNZ acted much earlier than planned. The OCR now stands at 5.50% after an aggressive hiking cycle to fight sticky inflation, last reported at 3.8% in Q4 2025. This policy shift has supported NZD/USD, which is trading near 0.6150. In the US, the rate cuts traders expected in early 2025 did not fully materialize, as inflation also stayed higher for longer. US inflation was 3.1% in January 2026. The Fed Funds Rate is now 4.75%–5.00%. That narrows the rate gap and limits the Kiwi’s upside. This outcome is very different from last year’s easing expectations. External drivers for the NZD are mixed. Dairy prices have improved, with the Global Dairy Trade Price Index up 2.8% at the latest auction. But weak consumer demand in China remains a drag. That creates an unclear outlook for New Zealand’s export-led economy. With these cross-currents, implied volatility may be priced too low, especially ahead of the next RBNZ meeting. Traders could consider buying straddles. This strategy uses both a call and a put at the same strike price, aiming to benefit from a large move in either direction without guessing the direction. It can help capture a hawkish RBNZ surprise or a sudden drop in risk sentiment. For traders who expect NZD/USD to stay range-bound, with support near 0.6050 and resistance near 0.6250, selling option premium may be appealing. A short strangle involves selling an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. It can generate income if NZD/USD stays inside the range, but it carries high risk if the pair breaks out. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) slipped after four straight days of gains, trading near $88.20 per troy ounce in early European trading on Tuesday. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 54, staying above the midpoint. Price held above both the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA was rising, and the nine-day EMA may provide support during pullbacks.

Trend And Momentum Outlook

Both EMAs were trending higher, with the nine-day EMA above the 50-day EMA. This setup could support a push toward the record high of $121.66, set on 29 January. Key support levels are the nine-day EMA at $83.03 and the 50-day EMA at $80.15. If price breaks below both, it could open the door to the two-month low of $64.08, posted on 6 February. The technical analysis for this story was produced with help from an AI tool. With silver holding near $88.20, the chart setup still points to a mild bullish bias. Price remains above key moving averages, which suggests the uptrend still has support. For traders, this can mean pullbacks may be treated as potential buying opportunities, not a clear trend reversal.

Options And Risk Management

With EMAs sloping upward, traders may look at strategies that benefit from a move toward the recent record high of $121.66. One approach is buying call options with strike prices around $95 or $100 to gain leveraged exposure to upside momentum. This view is also supported by the latest Global Solar Council report, which forecasts a 15% year-over-year rise in silver demand for photovoltaic manufacturing in 2026. Another approach, for those who expect support to hold, is selling cash-secured puts below the market. For example, selling puts with a strike price near the 50-day EMA (around $80) lets traders collect premium if the market holds above that level. A similar pattern appeared in Q3 2025, when silver held the $75 area before industrial demand helped drive the next rally. The broader backdrop also leans supportive. The latest CPI data came in at 3.5%, keeping inflation concerns in focus and making silver, as a hard asset, more attractive as a hedge. Markets are also pricing in a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by June, which could weaken the US Dollar and add support for silver. Even so, risk control matters. Watch the support levels at $83.03 and $80.15 closely. A clear break below the 50-day EMA would signal a meaningful shift in momentum and weaken the bullish case. If that happens, buying put options or taking short futures positions may fit better, with a potential move back toward the $64.08 low from earlier this month. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar fell after a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, but the move quickly reversed. Most USD exchange rates returned to near their pre-ruling levels. Uncertainty remains. US companies have started filing lawsuits to recover tariff costs. Countries are also reviewing how new broad tariffs could affect existing trade agreements.

General Tariff Timeline Unclear

There is still no clear schedule for raising general tariffs from 10% to 15%. Many countries have already accepted tariff levels near 15%. If the general tariff rises to 15% plus the relevant pre-increase rate, countries may rethink the value of announced US investment plans. More uncertainty comes from warnings of even higher tariffs for countries accused of delaying or resisting deals. At the same time, EU ratification of its agreement with the US is on hold. Tariff uncertainty linked to last year’s Supreme Court ruling continues to make trading difficult. The dollar’s initial drop reversed quickly, but the bigger issue remains: fiscal concerns are clashing with aggressive trade policy. With that tension unresolved, the dollar looks more likely to make sharp moves than follow a steady trend. This environment suggests higher currency volatility in the weeks ahead. That is already showing up in the Cboe Dollar Volatility Index (DVIX), which has risen to an eight-month high and is nearing 12.0. Derivatives traders may want to focus on strategies that can benefit from large price swings, no matter the direction.

Options Positioning For Volatility

One direct way to position for volatility is to buy at-the-money straddles or strangles on major pairs like EUR/USD. Recent CME Group data supports this view, showing a 14% month-over-month rise in FX options volume as traders hedge against sudden policy changes. This jump suggests many expect a breakout from the recent tight ranges. The trade disputes of 2018–2019 are a useful reminder. The dollar often strengthened unexpectedly because of its safe-haven role, even while tariffs were being rolled out. Something similar could happen if the EU and other partners retaliate, which would make the dollar’s direction hard to predict. This argues against simple directional trades and supports the case for owning volatility. Economic data is also adding to the choppy price action. The US trade deficit for January 2026 widened to $69.2 billion, showing that last year’s tariffs have not yet reduced the trade gap as intended. Mixed signals like this can keep driving whipsaw moves in the dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/USD slipped to around 1.3480 in Asian trade on Tuesday. It stayed below 1.3500 as the US Dollar bounced back after two straight sessions of losses. Markets are watching the US ADP Employment Change four-week average and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The US administration is weighing new national security tariffs on several industries after the Supreme Court struck down parts of its second-term tariff programme. The new plan would use Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and would sit alongside a 15% global tariff announced on Saturday.

Central Bank And Inflation Backdrop

On Monday, GBP/USD mostly moved sideways after the Bank of England held rates in February by a narrow 5–4 vote. UK CPI eased to 3.0%. The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, and January US CPI was 2.4%. The pair closed up 0.04% near 1.3495. It also traded below the 50-day EMA at 1.3523, with the 200-day EMA at 1.3371. The January high was 1.3869 and the December low was near 1.3287. Support sits at 1.3475, then 1.3371. Resistance is 1.3527, then 1.3600. GBP/USD also rose 0.31% on Monday to 1.3507 after rebounding from 1.3475, following the Court’s rejection of IEEPA-based tariffs. Because the Bank of England looks more dovish while the Federal Reserve remains patient, we see GBP/USD as more likely to drift lower. The market is pricing in a BoE rate cut, likely in March or April 2025, which could keep pressure on the Pound. As a result, we should consider buying put options or using bear put spreads to position for a possible break below the 1.3475 support level.

Volatility And Event Risk Outlook

The biggest uncertainty is US trade policy. It creates two-way risk and points to higher volatility ahead. A proposed 15% global tariff could disrupt markets and may weaken the US Dollar if foreign investment slows. This would be similar to early 2024, when worries about US political stability briefly weighed on the dollar. Because of this, outright short positions can be risky, since a sudden political shift could trigger a sharp reversal. This backdrop suits volatility-based strategies. With key Fed speeches and the ongoing tariff debate, we expect implied volatility on GBP/USD options to rise from current low levels. We should consider buying straddles or strangles ahead of these events to benefit from a large move in either direction, no matter what drives it. Technically, the pair is trading below the 50-day moving average, which supports the recent bearish tone. If selling pressure continues, we see the 200-day EMA at 1.3371 as the next major target. A clear break below that level would suggest a larger shift in the trend, and we should be ready to add to bearish positions. Still, the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, which suggests the selling may be losing strength. One-month risk reversals for GBP/USD have also flattened, meaning traders are less willing to pay up for downside protection. A rebound could follow if Fed speakers sound more dovish than expected or if the tariff plan is delayed. In that case, a move back above 1.3527 would be an important signal to watch. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/GBP slipped to around 0.8730 in early European trading on Tuesday, moving below 0.8750. Trade uncertainty pressured the Euro against the Pound. German GDP and the Eurozone inflation report are due on Wednesday. These releases could drive the pair’s next move.

Trade Uncertainty And Tariff Headlines

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down many tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump. Trump then said he would impose a new 15% tariff on Saturday. On Monday, the European Parliament delayed a vote on the EU–US trade deal because of the new import tariffs. Trump also warned countries not to retreat from newly negotiated US trade deals, saying he could apply higher duties under other trade laws. Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said the UK may need two or three rate cuts to return to a neutral level. He added that risks are shifting toward lower inflation and higher unemployment, and said inflation is moving back toward the BoE’s 2% target. EUR/GBP’s drop below 0.8750 reflects a familiar push and pull: trade uncertainty versus central-bank policy. Markets are weighing weak Eurozone growth against the chance of BoE rate cuts. This creates opportunities for traders who can judge which currency may weaken faster in the weeks ahead. The Euro looks more exposed. January’s German industrial production fell an unexpected 0.5%. The European Central Bank has also signaled it could cut rates as soon as April to support a stagnating economy, adding pressure to the currency. These concerns echo the Eurozone’s sensitivity to trade shocks seen during the tariff disputes of 2025.

Policy Divergence And Trading Implications

The Pound, however, may find relative support. UK inflation printed at 2.8% last week, still well above the BoE’s 2% target. That may make the BoE more cautious about cutting rates than the ECB, creating a policy gap that could favor Sterling. In 2025, similar conditions led to sharp swings. Today, implied volatility in EUR/GBP options is near multi-month lows, suggesting the market is not expecting a big move. That could make buying put options on the pair appealing for traders looking to position for a further decline, with defined risk if Euro weakness picks up. For traders expecting a slower move toward 0.8600 (a level seen last year), a bear put spread could lower the upfront cost. Traders should watch for any unexpectedly dovish comments from BoE officials. A sudden shift by the Bank of England remains the main risk to a short EUR/GBP view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Australian Dollar rose 0.1% to about 0.7065 against the US Dollar in early European trading on Tuesday. It moved higher as traders waited for Australia’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Markets are watching the inflation data for clues about what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will do next. Earlier this month, the RBA raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. It also left the door open to more increases, pointing to ongoing inflation risks.

Rba Inflation Outlook

RBA Governor Bullock said on 3 February that inflation was still too high. Australia’s statistics agency is expected to report annual CPI at 3.7% in January, slightly down from 3.8% in December. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to stay at 3.3%. The US Dollar held firm against other major currencies, even as US President Donald Trump made new trade-related threats. The US Dollar Index rose 0.12% to around 97.80. On Monday, Trump warned that the US could raise levies on countries he said were “playing games with existing trade agreements”. His comments came after a US Supreme Court ruling. This snapshot shows the Australian Dollar trading strongly above 0.7000 against the US Dollar ahead of an inflation report. Today, on February 24, 2026, the picture is different. AUD/USD is struggling near 0.6550. This points to a major change in fundamentals and market sentiment over the past couple of years.

Trading Implications And Risk Management

At the time, markets expected annual CPI to come in at 3.7%, and many saw the risks tilted to the upside. In the most recent quarterly data from late 2025, inflation was 4.1%. That shows price pressures have lasted longer than many expected. This fight against inflation remains a key issue for the RBA. In that earlier period, the RBA cash rate was 3.85% and the bank was still signalling possible hikes. Since then, they did raise rates further. The official cash rate has now been 4.35% for several months. Higher rates can affect both the currency and the wider economy in different ways than before. On the other side, US Dollar strength was once linked mainly to trade policy, with the DXY near 97.80. Today, the US Dollar is strong largely because the Federal Reserve is also battling inflation. Rates have stayed high, and the DXY has been trading above 104 more consistently. With a stronger US Dollar backdrop, it is harder for the Australian Dollar to make large gains. For derivative traders, volatility around Australian CPI releases is still a major opportunity, just as it was before. One approach is to buy straddles or strangles ahead of the next monthly CPI report. This can help traders benefit from a bigger-than-expected move in either direction. Markets remain very sensitive to inflation surprises. Because the Australian Dollar is weaker than in the earlier period, it also makes sense to plan for more downside risk. Buying AUD put options, or using bearish put spreads, can help manage that risk. This is especially important if US data stays strong and supports the “higher for longer” interest rate view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/JPY rose to around 109.60 in early European trading on Tuesday, pushing above 109.50. Buying picked up as concerns about Japan’s public finances continued and as markets expected more economic stimulus. The Australian Dollar is also finding support. Investors think the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may keep a tightening bias. Recent data has strengthened the view that the RBA will stay focused on inflation.

Australian CPI Outlook

Markets are waiting for Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected at 3.7% year over year in January, down from 3.8% previously. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the AUD. On the daily chart, the pair is trading above the 100-period EMA, and the EMA is still sloping upward. Price is also above the middle Bollinger Band. The bands are narrowing, which suggests lower volatility and a slight upward bias. RSI is at 59.95 and moving above its midpoint. This signals positive momentum without showing overbought conditions. Resistance sits near 110.60 at the upper Bollinger Band. Support is around 109.00 at the middle band, then 107.37 at the lower band. AUD/JPY is holding firm above 109.50, and there are reasons this strength could continue. Worries about Japan’s fiscal outlook are increasing, especially after Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration outlined a ¥15 trillion stimulus package aimed at lifting domestic consumption. More government spending is likely to keep the Yen under pressure.

Carry Trade Setup

On the Australian side, the RBA’s hawkish tone is helping the currency. Last week’s jobs report showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 3.6%. This supports the idea that the central bank may need to keep a tightening bias. It also fits with the steady economic resilience seen in recent months. The pair saw sharp moves in the second half of 2025 as carry trade demand surged, and the current backdrop looks similar. During that period, AUD/JPY climbed more than 8% as the interest rate gap widened. With the Bank of Japan reaffirming its commitment to loose policy just last month, conditions for carry trades may be improving again. With this bullish view, traders could consider call options with a strike at or above the 110.60 resistance level. This approach targets upside while keeping risk defined if Australian CPI comes in weaker than expected. Expiration in late March or April may give the trend time to play out. For a more conservative approach, traders could use a bull call spread to reduce upfront cost. For example, buy a call near 109.50 and sell a call near 111.00. This limits the maximum profit but can improve the overall risk-reward and helps manage short-term pullbacks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US Dollar steadied on Monday after a weak start, with the USD Index closing almost unchanged. Early Tuesday, it inched up toward 97.90 as markets watched tariff headlines. Later today, traders will focus on the ADP Employment Change 4-week Average and February Consumer Confidence, along with speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. The Dollar fell after the US Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs. It then came under more pressure after global tariffs were raised to 15% from 10%, effective immediately. Later, safe-haven demand linked to US stocks helped support the Dollar. The Wall Street Journal also reported plans for new national security tariffs on about six industries under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, separate from the 15% levy.

China Holds Rates Steady

China’s central bank kept the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%. The decision matched expectations and triggered little market reaction. EUR/USD eased after topping 1.1830 on Monday and traded near 1.1770 on Tuesday morning. USD/JPY climbed above 155.00, while Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would review the court decision in detail. GBP/USD stayed range-bound below 1.3500. Gold rose more than 2% on Monday, reached a February high above $5,200, then slipped to just over $5,150, down more than 1% on the day. At this time last year, the market turmoil tied to the new 15% global tariff was a key signal. Even though the news started in the US, investors still rushed into the US Dollar as a safe haven. That move set the tone for the months that followed. The Dollar’s strength pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a peak of 101.50 in the second quarter of 2025, before the economic hit from tariffs began to weigh on it.

Volatility Trades During Tariff Shock

Early 2025 showed why holding volatility can help during trade uncertainty. The VIX, which tracks implied volatility on the S&P 500, jumped more than 40% in the week after those headlines. Traders who bought call options on volatility indexes or used options straddles on major ETFs saw strong returns as markets priced in higher risk. The sharp move in USD/JPY above 155 was another clear signal. It showed the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal was stronger than the Japanese Yen’s at that time. The move was driven by a wider interest rate gap, a theme that has eased since then. Now that the pair is closer to 149, it shows how fast macro trends can change once the initial shock fades and central bank outlooks diverge. Gold’s spike above $5,150 was a classic fear trade, but the pullback that followed was the bigger opportunity. Traders should remember that geopolitical shocks often trigger an early rush into gold, but the second-round effects—like slower growth—can limit its longer-term upside. January 2026 inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index steady at 2.4%, also supports a less aggressive outlook for gold right now. The February 2025 events eventually pushed the Federal Reserve to adjust later that year. The drag on global trade became clearer when the US trade deficit widened by another 8% through the third quarter of 2025. In response, the Fed signaled a pause in its tightening cycle. That shift was an important turning point, creating opportunities in interest rate futures and options for traders positioned for a more cautious Fed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY rose 0.4% to around 155.30 in late Asian trading on Tuesday as the US Dollar firmed. The move came as the Dollar recovered, even after US President Donald Trump warned of higher tariffs for countries that do not honour trade agreements. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.2% near 97.90, measuring the Dollar against six major currencies. On Monday, Trump warned of steeper tariffs for countries “playing games with existing trade agreements” following a Supreme Court ruling.

Dollar Strength And Yen Weakness

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled against tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen lagged. This was despite a Nikkei report that US authorities carried out January “rate checks” to support the Yen. Reuters also reported they were ready for joint intervention if Japan asked for it. On the chart, USD/JPY traded near 155.30 and remained broadly sideways. This fits with a Descending Triangle pattern. Support sits near 152.00, while resistance is around 156.01. The upper boundary is drawn from the 23 January high of 159.66. The 20-day EMA stands at 154.91, and price is still above it. The 14-day RSI remains between 40.00 and 60.00, suggesting a range-bound market. In 2025, USD/JPY tightened into a narrow range, with pressure building around 155. That period included heavy US political headlines and talk of possible Japanese currency intervention. Today, the pair trades much higher near 162.50, showing that broader Dollar strength ultimately prevailed.

Policy And Volatility Outlook

Markets are still being driven by central bank policy, though the story is shifting. January US CPI came in at 3.2%, hotter than expected. This keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. It also supports the Dollar through higher yields, which helped drive last year’s breakout. The Bank of Japan is also showing early signs of change. At its last meeting, it removed language that committed to further easing. That adds uncertainty, because any move toward tightening would be a major shift for the Yen. In early 2025, the focus was on possible joint intervention. Now, traders are watching for the BoJ to act on its own. With this backdrop, volatility is the key issue for derivatives traders in the weeks ahead. Implied volatility on 3-month USD/JPY options has moved back above 12%. This reflects concern about a sudden policy signal from Tokyo. Last year’s sideways consolidation eventually broke higher, and another sharp move remains possible. Higher volatility also makes outright option buying more expensive, so cost-aware strategies may be more attractive. Bullish traders who expect the US rate advantage to persist may consider call spreads to target a move toward 165, while limiting upfront premium. Traders positioning for a BoJ surprise may prefer put spreads to seek gains from a drop back toward 158. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Tuesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at SAR 622.84 per gram, down from SAR 631.61 on Monday. The price per tola fell to SAR 7,264.78 from SAR 7,366.99 the day before. Other listed prices were SAR 6,228.49 for 10 grams and SAR 19,374.86 per troy ounce.

How Prices Are Calculated

FXStreet converts global gold prices into Saudi riyals using the USD/SAR exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication. They are for reference only, as local prices may vary slightly. Central banks hold more gold than any other group. They often buy gold to diversify their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, central banks added 1,136 tonnes in 2022, worth about $70 billion. This was the largest annual purchase ever recorded. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. It can also move against risk assets. Gold prices can be influenced by geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and the direction of the US Dollar, since gold is priced as XAU/USD. We see today’s small drop as normal market movement, not a shift in the broader trend. For us, the main driver remains the outlook for US interest rates. After the aggressive rate hikes through 2025, rates now appear to have peaked. If policy shifts toward neutral or rate cuts, that would be strongly positive for gold.

Implications For Traders

The interest-rate outlook affects the US dollar, which usually moves opposite to gold. After hitting multi-year highs in 2025, the dollar has started to weaken. We expect that trend to continue if the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts later this year. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which typically supports demand. Another key factor is steady, large-scale buying by central banks, which helps support prices. After record buying in prior years, central banks added another 800 tonnes in 2025, according to the World Gold Council. This type of demand can reduce the risk of sharp sell-offs. Gold also remains important as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. Inflation has eased from the highs of 2023 and 2024, but it is still above many central bank targets. For that reason, some investors continue to hold gold to protect purchasing power. Ongoing geopolitical tensions also support holding gold as part of a diversified portfolio. Given these conditions, derivatives traders may want to use recent weakness to build bullish exposure. Buying call options with three-to-six-month expirations offers upside potential with limited risk. Traders with higher risk tolerance could also consider long futures positions on price dips. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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