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Trade fears return after Trump’s tariff stance as AUD/USD dips and the Australian dollar weakens against the US dollar

AUD/USD slipped on Monday. The pair traded near 0.7051 after briefly moving above 0.7100 earlier in the day. The Australian Dollar struggled to gain even as the US Dollar weakened. On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs was unlawful. President Trump then announced a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Market Reaction And Dollar Dynamics

The US Dollar initially fell, then stabilized as markets adjusted to the new tariff framework. The US Dollar Index held around 97.67 after hitting an intraday low near 97.35. Lower expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut also supported the US Dollar. Markets still price in about 50 basis points of cuts by year-end. Fourth-quarter GDP growth is described as sluggish, while PCE inflation remains firm. In Australia, traders see a chance of another rate rise in March after stronger data and tighter policy signals. Inflation data due Tuesday is expected to show headline CPI at 3.7% year-on-year in January, down from 3.8% in December. Trimmed Mean CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.3% year-on-year. We remember how the surprise 15% global tariff introduced in early 2025 drove major trade tensions. That policy weighed on risk-sensitive currencies through last year. As a result, AUD/USD fell steadily from above 0.7000 to a trading range near 0.6550.

Shifting Policy Outlook And Trading Implications

The US Dollar outlook has changed a lot since the 2025 policy debates. The Federal Reserve kept rates steady for much of last year to fight tariff-driven inflation, but growth has since weakened. January’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed only 85,000 new jobs. This has increased expectations for rate cuts later this year. In Australia, the hawkish mood from early 2025 has faded. The global trade slowdown has cooled the local economy. The latest data shows Q4 2025 headline CPI falling to 2.9%. This puts the Reserve Bank of Australia closer to the Federal Reserve, with markets now expecting easing from both. For derivative traders, the main story is no longer the clear policy split seen in 2025. Instead, markets are dealing with a broad global slowdown. The key question is which central bank cuts first, and how quickly. In this setting, buying volatility using straddles or strangles may be a sensible way to prepare for sharp moves in either direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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ABN AMRO economists say Supreme Court ruling annulling IEEPA tariffs cuts US duties, though they remain historically high

The US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not let a President impose tariffs. The Court left it to lower courts to decide whether more than $160 billion in paid tariffs must be refunded. The decision slightly reduces overall US tariff levels, but tariffs are still historically high. The Trump administration moved quickly to restore tariffs using other legal tools.

Tariff Refunds And Fiscal Effects

If courts order refunds, they would raise this year’s deficit. Even so, the long-term debt outlook is not expected to change much. Forecasts already assumed tariffs would fall this year—and that drop has now happened. Inflation effects should be small. Even if companies get refunds, they are unlikely to pass that money on to consumers. Section 122 could be used again, but it only lasts 150 days and could face legal challenges. Those cases likely would not be resolved before the 150 days end. Section 122 was originally meant to deal with international payment problems under fixed exchange rates. The administration is also expected to use Section 232 and Section 301 to rebuild tariffs after new investigations. These tools cannot recreate broad, universal tariffs, but over time they could rebuild something close to the previous package.

Trading Implications And Sector Volatility

The Supreme Court’s decision to limit presidential tariff powers has changed the trading environment. It moves markets away from broad, predictable tariffs and toward more targeted and uncertain actions. The administration is now rebuilding tariffs step by step, which creates uneven risks across sectors. In this setting, we favor trading volatility rather than making simple, market-wide directional bets. Traders should watch sectors often targeted under Sections 232 and 301, such as steel, aluminum, and Chinese technology imports. As new investigations begin, implied volatility could rise in ETFs tied to these areas, including the industrial sector SPDR (XLI). That may make volatility strategies—such as buying straddles or strangles on key industrial and tech names—more attractive as uncertainty increases. We do not view this as a major disinflation shock that would change Federal Reserve policy. The latest Consumer Price Index showed a 0.4% monthly increase in January 2026, keeping annual inflation above 3%. Any refunds paid to businesses are also unlikely to reach consumers. For that reason, options trades that rely on aggressive Fed rate cuts because of this tariff news look poorly positioned. The possibility that more than $160 billion in tariff refunds could be paid out this year creates a clear fiscal risk. It could widen the projected deficit, which the CBO already put at more than $1.7 trillion for fiscal year 2026. That could be a headwind for US Treasuries. It may also add volatility in currency markets, especially the US dollar versus the Chinese yuan. Section 122 would allow broad tariffs for a limited 150-day window while longer-term measures are investigated. Because legal challenges are unlikely to conclude before it expires, traders should expect short-term market disruptions when Section 122 is used. This creates a defined period when hedging currency exposure or certain commodity futures may become more important. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Tariff uncertainty hit markets, pushing the DJIA below 49,000 and down 700 as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell

US stocks fell as tariff uncertainty increased. The Dow dropped about 700 points (1.45%). The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%. The US raised a Section 122 global tariff from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs under IEEPA. The 15% tariff can last up to 150 days unless Congress extends it. The US also plans new Section 301 probes.

Market Volatility And Tariff Risk

Novo Nordisk shares fell as much as 16% after CagriSema underperformed in the REDEFINE 4 trial versus Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. After 84 weeks, weight loss was 20.2% for CagriSema versus 23.6% for tirzepatide. Eli Lilly rose about 3%. Oracle and Palantir fell about 4%. American Express dropped roughly 5–7%. The iShares Software ETF is down about 20% year-to-date. Nvidia rose about 1.7%. Earnings expectations are $1.53 per share on $65.7 billion in revenue. Gilead will buy Arcellx for $7.8 billion. Arcellx jumped nearly 80% to about $115 per share, plus a $5 contingent value right (CVR). Gold rose more than 1% to about $5,168 per ounce, and silver climbed toward $88. Bitcoin fell to about $65,000. Domino’s reported $1.54 billion in revenue, with 3.7% US same-store sales, and shares rose about 5%. New global tariffs are raising uncertainty and driving a jump in market fear. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is up more than 20% this week and is trading above 22. That level is similar to the trade-war tension seen in 2019. To help limit downside risk, we should consider SPY puts or VIX call options in case trading partners respond with their own measures. Novo Nordisk’s sharp 16% drop also highlights a clear split versus Eli Lilly, which now looks like the stronger leader in weight loss. Implied volatility on Novo options has climbed above 60%, which points to more large moves ahead. One way to use this gap is a pairs trade: buy puts on NVO and calls on LLY, aiming to profit if the performance difference keeps widening.

Software Rotation And Earnings Setup

There is a major shift away from legacy software. Tech funds reported more than $5 billion in outflows from the sector last month alone. The decline in names like Oracle and American Express may have further to go, which makes puts on the IGV software ETF a useful hedge. For Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, a straddle can help position for a big move in either direction, since it focuses on volatility rather than direction. Gilead’s Arcellx deal is a long-term move into cell therapy, not a short-term trade. The announcement is now largely priced into Arcellx. However, the small dip in Gilead could offer a lower-cost entry for long-dated call options. The main catalyst is the FDA decision on anito-cel in December, so options expiring in early 2027 may fit the timeline. The move to safety is clear, with gold pushing above the key $5,100 level. As long as tariff tension stays high, we should consider adding exposure through calls on the GLD and SLV ETFs. Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset and is down nearly 15% year-to-date. Puts on crypto-related ETFs can help hedge this risk-off setup. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD falls to around 0.5965 despite strong New Zealand retail sales and a dovish RBNZ, down 0.20%

NZD/USD traded near 0.5965 on Monday, down 0.20%, even though New Zealand consumption data was stronger. Fourth-quarter Retail Sales rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.6% forecast, but slowing from the prior quarter’s 1.9%. Retail Sales excluding Autos increased 1.5%, after a previous 1.2% rise.

Rbnz Policy Signal

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% last week. It signaled that policy will remain supportive, as inflation is expected to move back toward the middle of the target range over the next year. In the US, the Dollar stabilized after earlier weakness tied to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 15% global tariff. The move followed a US Supreme Court ruling linked to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The US Dollar Index traded near 97.67 after hitting an intraday low around 97.35. US Factory Orders fell 0.7% month-on-month in December, missing expectations for a 1.1% rise, after a prior 2.7% increase. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller backed a 25-basis-point rate cut. He pointed to a softer labour market, with labour demand falling faster than labour supply.

Looking Back And Ahead

In early 2025, the New Zealand Dollar faced heavy uncertainty. It stayed weak against the US Dollar even with solid retail sales, because the RBNZ kept policy very loose and held the cash rate at 2.25%. At the same time, the US dealt with surprise global tariffs, while the Federal Reserve hinted that rate cuts could be coming. That dovish view changed sharply during 2025. Global inflation, made worse in part by trade tensions, pushed both central banks to reverse course. The RBNZ and the Fed delivered one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in recent history. By the end of the year, the market backdrop looked nothing like it did a year earlier. By February 2026, the story has shifted again. Rate-cut expectations are back in focus. The RBNZ has kept the Official Cash Rate at a restrictive 5.50% for two straight meetings. With Q4 2025 inflation easing to 4.7%, markets are starting to price in rate cuts later this year. This pause is limiting major upside for the Kiwi. The US outlook is less clear, which creates potential opportunity. After the Fed lifted the Funds Rate to a 5.25%–5.50% range, January 2026 CPI came in sticky at 3.1%, slightly above forecasts. That has delayed expectations for the first Fed cut, giving the US Dollar a near-term yield advantage. For derivatives traders, this policy gap points to limited upside for NZD/USD in the weeks ahead. One approach is to buy 3-month NZD/USD put options with a strike near 0.6000. This gives defined risk and gains if the pair slides back toward last year’s lows, especially if US data stays strong. If you expect the pair to trade in a range, selling out-of-the-money NZD/USD call options is another way to earn premium. A bear call spread—selling a call near 0.6250 and buying a higher strike for protection—can benefit from time decay as long as NZD/USD does not rally sharply. With implied volatility rising on central-bank uncertainty, option-selling setups can look more attractive. Key risk: upcoming labour market data in New Zealand and the US. A surprise slowdown—especially in US jobs data—could quickly change sentiment and weaken the US Dollar. Staying flexible and managing positions actively will matter over the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Pound sterling rose after the Supreme Court halted Trump’s emergency tariffs, while trade doubts further weakened the US dollar

GBP/USD rose 0.31% on Monday as the US Dollar weakened due to ongoing trade policy uncertainty. The pair traded at 1.3507 after rebounding from a daily low of 1.3475.

Trade Policy Uncertainty Drives Volatility

The move followed a US Supreme Court decision that blocked tariffs introduced by Donald Trump under the IEEPA national emergency measure. In mid-2025, sudden legal challenges to trade policy—such as the Supreme Court blocking tariffs—pushed the dollar lower and sent GBP/USD higher. This is a clear reminder that non-economic headlines can trigger sharp, unexpected swings in currency markets. It also shows why political uncertainty remains a key source of volatility. Now, a similar cloud is hanging over the US Dollar as Congress debates the new “Fair Trade Modernization Act.” While this is slower-moving than a court ruling, drawn-out negotiations can still weaken confidence in the dollar. That pressure is already showing up in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen about 2% this month, from 104 to around 102.

Derivative Strategies For A Choppy Market

The outlook is more complicated because the Bank of England is also signaling possible rate cuts as UK data stays weak. Q4 2025 GDP growth was only 0.1%. This softness could limit how far the pound can rally, even if the dollar remains under pressure. With mixed forces on both sides of the Atlantic, this setup points to choppy trading. For derivatives traders, it may make more sense to focus on volatility rather than picking a direction. The Cboe FX Volatility Index for GBP is up 15% over the past month to 9.2. In this kind of market, option strategies such as straddles or strangles on GBP/USD can be sensible, since they can profit from a large move either way and reduce the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a headline. Unlike the one-off Supreme Court event in 2025, the current legislative process offers a clearer schedule of potential catalysts. Traders can use short-dated weekly options to position around specific committee hearings or floor votes tied to the bill. Similar patterns appeared during Brexit, when scheduled political events repeatedly drove short-term jumps in implied volatility for the pound. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose sees rouble gains if peace progresses and major US-EU sanctions ease further

Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose said the rouble could strengthen if peace talks lead to a breakthrough. He said this could happen if a settlement includes easing key US and EU sanctions, including the freeze on Russia’s central bank dollar and euro assets. He said the automatic one-year extension of existing US sanctions is widely seen as a procedural step, not a new political move. He added that the US President has not introduced new sanctions and has shown interest in Russia joining a peace council format. Ghose noted that the US is still mediating through trilateral talks on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. He said any deal would likely require removing or exempting key sanctions, because Russia may not agree otherwise. He said extending older sanctions does not rule out reversals later if a settlement is reached. He also said markets may still assign some probability to that outcome when pricing the rouble. Looking back at the analysis from early 2025, there was a strong case that a peace breakthrough could unlock significant upside for the rouble. That view depended on major sanctions being lifted, which in turn depended on successful negotiations. But a comprehensive deal did not happen. The Geneva II talks in late 2025 stalled without a major agreement. As a result, key sanctions—especially the freeze on the central bank’s foreign assets—remain in place. The market has largely removed the chance of a near-term reversal from prices. This has shifted attention away from geopolitical headlines and back to economic fundamentals. USD/RUB has moved into a tighter range and has tracked Brent crude more closely, with Brent stabilizing around $88 per barrel in recent weeks. The Central Bank of Russia is now a more important driver. Its key rate remains at 13.5% after January inflation printed at 5.2%, slightly above expectations. Domestic data has also been resilient, with industrial production growth beating forecasts in Q4 2025. This suggests an economy adapting to long-lasting sanctions, not one about to reopen. With this change, traders should note that implied rouble volatility has dropped sharply from its 2025 highs, when diplomatic speculation was intense. With fewer major catalysts in sight, strategies that benefit from a stable range look more appealing. That points to trades that collect premium and take advantage of Russia’s high interest rate differential, rather than betting on a large one-way move.

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Sterling rises against the dollar after court overturns Trump tariffs, as trade-policy uncertainty weakens the greenback

GBP/USD rose 0.31% on Monday to 1.3507, after bouncing from 1.3475. The US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) national emergency. The court said tariffs set under a national emergency are illegal, and that Congress—not the president—has the power to impose taxes and tariffs. Donald Trump then said he would introduce 10% global tariffs. He later lifted them to 15% under Section 122 for 150 days, with any extensions requiring Congress’ approval.

Volatility Driven By Policy Conflict

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said existing trade deals will stay in place. US Factory Orders fell 0.7% month on month in December, after a 2.7% rise in November. The decline was linked to weaker commercial aircraft bookings. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support more easing if January Nonfarm Payrolls are revised lower. Otherwise, he prefers holding rates if the trend continues in February. In the UK, markets expect a 25 basis point Bank of England rate cut on 19 March. UK unemployment rose after a weaker jobs report, while inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2025. On the chart, GBP/USD is trading near 1.3505, with resistance around 1.3532. The broader uptrend is supported by a rising trend line from 1.3035. GBP/USD is being pulled in different directions by forces on both sides of the Atlantic. The Supreme Court ruling against emergency tariffs has weighed on the dollar. However, the quick move to announce new 15% tariffs keeps trade policy uncertainty very high. This backdrop suggests volatility may remain the main theme in the weeks ahead.

Options Strategies For A Range Break

In the US, the growth picture is cooling, which supports the case for a weaker dollar. The weak factory orders reading from December 2025 was an early warning. More recent data points in the same direction, with the preliminary February 2026 Manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.8, which signals a mild contraction. Attention now turns to the February Nonfarm Payrolls report in early March, which could give the Fed the evidence it needs to consider easing. At the same time, the case for a weaker pound is also growing, setting up a classic tug-of-war. After last week’s soft jobs and inflation reports, expectations for a Bank of England cut have strengthened. Overnight index swaps now imply an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the 19 March meeting, up from about 50% at the start of the month. This split—between a Fed that is highly data-dependent and a BoE that is turning more dovish—makes trading conditions harder to predict. Political headlines around Prime Minister Starmer add another risk factor for sterling. When central bank paths diverge this clearly, it can lead to a lasting trend, but the uncertainty around US trade policy is a major wildcard. For derivatives traders, this setup can make “buying volatility” appealing. With key US data and a BoE decision ahead, a one-month GBP/USD straddle could benefit from a large move in either direction. The trade aims to capture a breakout from the current range without needing to predict whether US tariffs or UK rates will be the bigger driver. For traders with a clear directional view, options can also help control risk. If you think US uncertainty will dominate, call options can express a bullish GBP/USD view. If you think the BoE will move decisively, put options can position for a drop—potentially even below the 1.3035 trend line highlighted in the technical view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold hits a three-week high as uncertainty over US tariffs and tensions with Iran boost global safe-haven demand

Gold hit a three-week high on Monday as uncertainty over US trade policy and rising US-Iran tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets. XAU/USD traded near $5,208, up nearly 2.20% on the day. On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump could not use the IEEPA to impose reciprocal tariffs. The administration then turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and announced a temporary flat 10% tariff on imports from all countries. That rate was raised to 15% on Saturday.

Tariffs Timeline And Middle East Risks

The tariff is set to begin on 24 February and can remain in place for up to 150 days without Congressional approval. Markets also watched reports of a major US military build-up in the Middle East, as US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume in Geneva on Thursday. This week’s US data calendar is light: ADP and Conference Board Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the State of the Union on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and January PPI on Friday. Traders are still pricing in 50 bps of rate cuts by year-end. From a technical view, gold broke above $5,100, with RSI near 69. MACD remains positive but is losing momentum. A move above $5,200 could open the door to $5,400–$5,500. Key support levels are $4,964, $4,850, and $4,650. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022—the largest annual purchase on record.

Looking Back At February 2025

In February 2025, gold surged as trade and geopolitical fears hit at the same time. The surprise 15% flat tariff announced by the US administration sparked a sharp flight to safety. Alongside the Iran-related military build-up, it created the kind of uncertainty that often drives gold higher. The tariffs stayed in place for the full 150 days, lasting into July 2025. They disrupted global supply chains and helped slow US GDP growth in the second and third quarters. Industries that relied heavily on imports saw costs rise, and producer prices climbed. During that period, PPI rose by an average of 0.8% month-over-month. When the tariffs were removed, markets got some relief, but investors remained on edge about sudden policy changes. That weakening in the economy pushed the Federal Reserve to respond. As many expected, the Fed delivered two 25-basis-point rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Lower rates supported gold through the year because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Steady central-bank buying also remained a major pillar of support. Now, in February 2026, conditions feel calmer, and that can create opportunity. Geopolitical risks are still present but less intense, and trade policy looks more stable for the moment. As a result, implied volatility in gold options is much lower. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) is around 16, compared with peaks above 22 during last year’s tariff shock. Lower volatility usually means cheaper options. For traders who think markets are underpricing risks—such as high global debt levels or renewed geopolitical tension—long-dated call options offer a defined-risk way to position for a potential spike in gold. This approach gives meaningful upside if a new shock hits, similar to last year’s tariff surprise. Fundamental demand also remains strong. Central banks continued buying in 2025, adding another 1,037 tonnes to reserves. This shows an ongoing push to diversify away from the dollar. That steady demand can help put a floor under prices, which may make strategies like selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium appealing for traders with a neutral-to-moderately bullish view. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/CHF hovers near 0.7738 amid trade doubts, weak Swiss data and a softer dollar, down 0.16%

USD/CHF traded in a tight range on Monday. It held near 0.7738 and was down 0.16%. The Swiss franc weakened after softer Swiss data, but a weaker US dollar limited further moves. The US dollar slipped after President Donald Trump announced a 15% global tariff. The move came after a US Supreme Court ruling that his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs was unlawful.

Trade Deal Frictions

The European Parliament has reportedly paused ratification of a US‑EU trade deal. India has also delayed talks on an interim trade agreement with Washington. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 97.67 after hitting an intraday low around 97.35. US Factory Orders fell 0.7% month-on-month in December, missing expectations for a 1.1% increase, after a prior 2.7% gain. Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a 25 basis point rate cut at the January meeting. In Switzerland, Producer and Import Prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in January versus forecasts for a 0.1% rise. They were down 2.2% year-on-year, following a 1.8% decline in December. Key US events ahead include ADP Employment Change and Conference Board Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Trump’s State of the Union on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and January PPI on Friday.

From 2025 Turbulence To 2026 Divergence

In early 2025, USD/CHF was stuck in a narrow band near 0.7738. The main drivers were uncertainty around the Trump administration’s surprise tariffs and a weaker Swiss franc. Markets were waiting for clearer signals from economic data and US policy. That backdrop has changed. By February 2026, the bigger driver is policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. Trade risks are still present, but they feel more structured and less sudden than the tariff headlines of 2025. In Switzerland, the deflation pressure seen in 2025 has eased a little. January 2026 data showed Swiss CPI inflation at 1.4% year-on-year. Inflation is still low, but it is no longer near the negative producer-price readings from last year. This offers some support to the franc, but not enough to push the SNB toward a policy shift. In the US, the labor-market worries raised by Fed officials in early 2025 did not turn into a major downturn. The latest January 2026 jobs report showed payrolls rising by 195,000, with unemployment steady at 3.7%. This resilience has helped the Fed keep rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range. The large rate gap between the US and Switzerland makes the US dollar more attractive than the Swiss franc. Derivatives traders should also note that implied volatility has dropped from the highs seen during the 2025 trade turmoil. Lower volatility generally makes options cheaper than they were a year ago. As a result, traders may look at strategies that benefit from the rate gap and the calmer macro backdrop. One approach is selling out-of-the-money USD/CHF puts to collect premium, assuming downside is limited by the policy split. Another is using call options or call spreads to position for more upside if US data stays strong. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Light CEE data calendar; Taborsky expects Hungary’s central bank to resume cuts and lower the rate to 6.25%

Central and Eastern Europe has a quiet data calendar. The focus is on Hungary and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). The NBH is expected to restart rate cuts with a 25bp move to 6.25%. This would be the first cut since September 2024. More cuts are likely, including another move in March. Markets will focus on the NBH’s forward guidance to judge what comes after February.

Hungary Rate Outlook

US trade headlines could drive risk-off sentiment and pressure regional currencies. A weaker US dollar may offset some of this pressure. Recent regional rate moves may also help keep CEE currencies more stable. EUR/HUF is expected to test carry positioning as the NBH resumes cuts. Markets are fully pricing in rate cuts in both February and March. EUR/HUF returned to 378 last week, a two-year low. The rate cut could push the pair higher. In the past, higher levels have often been used to rebuild forint long positions. Hungary’s inflation has dropped from a 2023 peak above 25% to 3.8% last month. We therefore expect the NBH to restart its easing cycle tomorrow. The market has fully priced a 25bp cut, which would take the policy rate to 6.25% for the first time since the cycle was paused in September 2024. For traders, the key will be the bank’s forward guidance, as we expect another cut to follow in March.

Positioning And Volatility

The forint carry trade has performed strongly. It is supported by an interest rate gap versus the Eurozone that is still above 3 percentage points. This has repeatedly pulled EUR/HUF lower, with the pair hitting a two-year low near 378 last week. The coming rate cut is the first real test of this positioning. Even so, the market has often stepped in to buy the forint when it weakens. Wider market sentiment also matters. Recent US trade headlines typically hurt emerging market currencies. However, a weaker US dollar should help. The DXY index has fallen from 105 to 102 over the past month. This dollar weakness can soften the impact of risk-off moves and support regional FX. Because the cut is widely expected, some derivative traders may look for ways to benefit from low near-term volatility, such as selling short-dated EUR/HUF straddles. The bigger risk (and opportunity) is a surprise in the NBH statement. Buying low-cost, out-of-the-money EUR/HUF call options can offer protection—or upside—if the NBH signals a more dovish path and EUR/HUF jumps. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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