USD/CHF traded in a tight range on Monday. It held near 0.7738 and was down 0.16%. The Swiss franc weakened after softer Swiss data, but a weaker US dollar limited further moves. The US dollar slipped after President Donald Trump announced a 15% global tariff. The move came after a US Supreme Court ruling that his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs was unlawful.

Trade Deal Frictions

The European Parliament has reportedly paused ratification of a US‑EU trade deal. India has also delayed talks on an interim trade agreement with Washington. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 97.67 after hitting an intraday low around 97.35. US Factory Orders fell 0.7% month-on-month in December, missing expectations for a 1.1% increase, after a prior 2.7% gain. Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a 25 basis point rate cut at the January meeting. In Switzerland, Producer and Import Prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in January versus forecasts for a 0.1% rise. They were down 2.2% year-on-year, following a 1.8% decline in December. Key US events ahead include ADP Employment Change and Conference Board Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Trump’s State of the Union on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and January PPI on Friday.

From 2025 Turbulence To 2026 Divergence

In early 2025, USD/CHF was stuck in a narrow band near 0.7738. The main drivers were uncertainty around the Trump administration’s surprise tariffs and a weaker Swiss franc. Markets were waiting for clearer signals from economic data and US policy. That backdrop has changed. By February 2026, the bigger driver is policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank. Trade risks are still present, but they feel more structured and less sudden than the tariff headlines of 2025. In Switzerland, the deflation pressure seen in 2025 has eased a little. January 2026 data showed Swiss CPI inflation at 1.4% year-on-year. Inflation is still low, but it is no longer near the negative producer-price readings from last year. This offers some support to the franc, but not enough to push the SNB toward a policy shift. In the US, the labor-market worries raised by Fed officials in early 2025 did not turn into a major downturn. The latest January 2026 jobs report showed payrolls rising by 195,000, with unemployment steady at 3.7%. This resilience has helped the Fed keep rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range. The large rate gap between the US and Switzerland makes the US dollar more attractive than the Swiss franc. Derivatives traders should also note that implied volatility has dropped from the highs seen during the 2025 trade turmoil. Lower volatility generally makes options cheaper than they were a year ago. As a result, traders may look at strategies that benefit from the rate gap and the calmer macro backdrop. One approach is selling out-of-the-money USD/CHF puts to collect premium, assuming downside is limited by the policy split. Another is using call options or call spreads to position for more upside if US data stays strong. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Central and Eastern Europe has a quiet data calendar. The focus is on Hungary and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). The NBH is expected to restart rate cuts with a 25bp move to 6.25%. This would be the first cut since September 2024. More cuts are likely, including another move in March. Markets will focus on the NBH’s forward guidance to judge what comes after February.

Hungary Rate Outlook

US trade headlines could drive risk-off sentiment and pressure regional currencies. A weaker US dollar may offset some of this pressure. Recent regional rate moves may also help keep CEE currencies more stable. EUR/HUF is expected to test carry positioning as the NBH resumes cuts. Markets are fully pricing in rate cuts in both February and March. EUR/HUF returned to 378 last week, a two-year low. The rate cut could push the pair higher. In the past, higher levels have often been used to rebuild forint long positions. Hungary’s inflation has dropped from a 2023 peak above 25% to 3.8% last month. We therefore expect the NBH to restart its easing cycle tomorrow. The market has fully priced a 25bp cut, which would take the policy rate to 6.25% for the first time since the cycle was paused in September 2024. For traders, the key will be the bank’s forward guidance, as we expect another cut to follow in March.

Positioning And Volatility

The forint carry trade has performed strongly. It is supported by an interest rate gap versus the Eurozone that is still above 3 percentage points. This has repeatedly pulled EUR/HUF lower, with the pair hitting a two-year low near 378 last week. The coming rate cut is the first real test of this positioning. Even so, the market has often stepped in to buy the forint when it weakens. Wider market sentiment also matters. Recent US trade headlines typically hurt emerging market currencies. However, a weaker US dollar should help. The DXY index has fallen from 105 to 102 over the past month. This dollar weakness can soften the impact of risk-off moves and support regional FX. Because the cut is widely expected, some derivative traders may look for ways to benefit from low near-term volatility, such as selling short-dated EUR/HUF straddles. The bigger risk (and opportunity) is a surprise in the NBH statement. Buying low-cost, out-of-the-money EUR/HUF call options can offer protection—or upside—if the NBH signals a more dovish path and EUR/HUF jumps. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) jumped about 4% on Monday as investors sought safe-haven assets, alongside Gold. The rise followed shifts in trade policy and higher geopolitical risk. On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs issued under emergency powers. In response, the US administration turned to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and said it may roll out a 15% flat global tariff in the coming months.

Key Drivers Behind The Rally

US-Iran nuclear talks remain stalled. Economic data also weighed on sentiment, with Q4 GDP at 1.4% and PCE inflation at 3.4%. Supply concerns also helped lift Silver. The market is on track for a sixth straight annual deficit, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces in 2026. Demand is supported by industrial uses such as solar, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. On the chart, Silver briefly hit $88/ounce for the first time in three weeks and held above the 200-period EMA at $82.17. This move followed a rebound from a $72.00 low in mid-February. The Stochastic Oscillator climbed above 90, signaling overbought conditions. Resistance sits near $90.00 and then $92.00. Support is around $84.00 and $82.00. A clean break above $90.00 could open the door to $100.00.

Trade Policy And Market Positioning

Tariffs are import duties paid at the port of entry by importers. Taxes are paid at purchase by individuals and firms. In 2024, Mexico, China, and Canada made up 42% of US imports, with Mexico alone at $466.6 billion. The fast push to $88 reflects real concerns about stagflation and trade wars. However, the overbought stochastic suggests the rally may pause in the near term. One approach is to buy out-of-the-money call options—such as March $92 calls—to keep upside exposure while limiting risk. This can capture a move toward $100 without taking full downside if prices pull back. Fundamentals still support a bullish view. The market is heading into a sixth straight year of supply deficits. Silver Institute data from late 2025 showed industrial demand—especially from solar panels and electric vehicles—rose more than 15% last year, tightening the physical market. This shortage can help support prices, even if short-term profit-taking appears. We have seen similar setups before. The current mix of slower growth and sticky inflation echoes the 1970s, when precious metals had a major bull run. The 2018–2019 tariff disputes also showed that safe havens like Silver can perform well when trade policy is uncertain. A proposed 15% global levy would be a larger shock, which suggests the rally could extend. The new tariff plan also focuses on key trading partners. U.S. Census Bureau data from last year shows Mexico and Canada together accounted for nearly $800 billion in imports during 2025. If either country responds with retaliation, tensions could rise further and push more money into hard assets like Silver. Watch for statements from Ottawa or Mexico City, as they may be the next major catalyst. For futures traders, it may make sense to wait for a small pullback before going long. A dip toward the $84 support area could offer a better entry and reduce the risk of buying near a short-term top. Consider stop-loss orders below the key 200-period moving average near $82 to limit downside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Pound Sterling fell sharply against major currencies during European trading on Monday. The drop followed dovish comments on interest rates from Bank of England MPC member Alan Taylor at a Deutsche Bank event in London. OCBC said that stubborn UK inflation and stronger activity data have lowered expectations for easier Bank of England policy and helped support the Pound. The bank added that the 26 February by-election could keep GBP volatility high in the near term, along with ongoing political risk.

Conflicting Signals For Sterling

Sterling is facing a familiar push and pull, similar to what we saw in early 2025. The latest data shows UK inflation is still stubborn at 3.1%, well above the Bank of England’s target. That would usually support the currency. But cautious comments from central bank officials are weighing on Sterling, much like last year’s dovish remarks did. These mixed signals point to higher volatility in the coming weeks. For derivatives traders, strategies that benefit from big moves—such as buying straddles or strangles on GBP/USD—may fit this environment. These trades can profit whether the Pound moves sharply higher or lower, reducing the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a surprise headline. Politics is also a major driver, as it was around the February 2025 by-election. With a general election expected later this year, political news could trigger sudden and hard-to-predict moves in Sterling. In the past, implied volatility in Sterling options has jumped sharply during political stress, such as the 2016 Brexit vote. When this short-term uncertainty settles, attention may shift back to the inflation picture. If the Bank of England ends up keeping rates higher for longer than the market expects, Sterling could regain support. That means near-term volatility strategies may make sense, but holding large outright short positions against the Pound could be risky.

What To Watch Next

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NIO has climbed more than 18% from recent monthly lows in just a few trading days. The move has been steady, with the price trending higher instead of spiking. The stock is now near a prior pivot high around **$5.21**. This level mattered before because the price previously stalled there. A stronger resistance area sits near the **$5.50 gap-fill zone**. Gaps often draw trading activity. If price reaches this area, it may pause or pull back. The key question is where risk starts to rise as the stock approaches these known resistance levels. After a fast rally from lows, it’s common to see a pause or retracement once price hits these zones. Risk management is important here, with a focus on limiting downside. Traders watch pivot highs and gap zones closely, so these levels often become decision points during rallies. After this month’s strong 18% move, we view this as a chance for **disciplined options trades** rather than chasing the stock. The rally has also been backed by improving fundamentals: January 2026 deliveries came in above **20,500 vehicles**, beating expectations, and building on the better margins reported for **Q4 2025**. That support adds credibility to the technical push higher. As price approaches the prior pivot high near **$5.21**, options traders should be ready for a possible pause. This level has acted as a ceiling before, and after a quick run, some consolidation would be normal. Watch for signs of hesitation before positioning for the next move. The more important level is the gap fill around **$5.50**, which offers a clear area to build a trade. – **If you expect resistance to hold:** a **call credit spread** with the short strike at or just above **$5.50** can be a solid setup. This benefits if the stock stalls or pulls back from that barrier. – **If you expect momentum to continue:** consider a **bull call spread** instead of buying shares near resistance. This can target further upside toward **$5.50** while keeping risk defined, which matters given the EV sector’s sharp sentiment swings in 2025. These defined-risk option strategies match the need for strict risk control. With how quickly rallies faded at times in 2025, spreads let traders stay involved while protecting against a sudden reversal. Managing downside at these key technical levels is likely to matter most in the weeks ahead.

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OLB Group, Inc. ($OLB) is a fintech company that offers payment processing and merchant services. On 17 February, the share price jumped up to a descending trendline that has been in place since early 2024, then reversed hard. After that test, $OLB fell back to about $0.83. That is roughly 50% below the level reached during the spike. The same descending trendline runs from the early-2024 highs around $3.20–$3.40 down to today’s levels. The 17 February move hit the underside of this trendline and then dropped soon after. This is another failed rally attempt below the same resistance line. The recent low near $0.40 (set before the February spike) is a key downside level to watch. A breakout above the descending trendline, supported by higher trading volume, would be the main condition for changing the current technical setup. We saw a clear signal in The OLB Group last week. The stock was sharply rejected at its long-term descending trendline on February 17. Price spiked toward $1.70, then fell about 50% to around $0.83. This reinforces the strength of the overhead resistance that has capped the stock since early 2024. The weak chart is also supported by recent fundamentals from the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call. Merchant acquisition slowed 8% year over year, and management guided for flat revenue growth through the first half of this year. With little growth, sellers have more reason to stay in control. Last week’s spike was likely a short squeeze, not a real shift in sentiment. Before the move, short interest was high at nearly 18% of the float. A small press release about a new AI feature appears to have triggered the jump. The quick drop afterward suggests that once shorts covered, there were not enough real buyers to hold the price up. For traders, this setup favors bearish options strategies in the coming weeks. One approach is to buy put options, with the April 2026 expiry to give the trade time to play out. The $0.75 and $0.50 strikes look appealing and line up with a move back toward the prior lows near $0.40. However, the spike likely pushed implied volatility higher, which can make long puts expensive. A cheaper, risk-defined alternative is a bear put spread—for example, buying the $0.75 put and selling the $0.50 put. This reduces the upfront cost and sets a clear maximum profit, making it more capital-efficient for a bearish view. The main risk to this bearish outlook is a close above the descending trendline, now around $1.65–$1.70. That level is the line in the sand. As long as the stock stays below it, any bounce may be a chance to start or add to bearish positions.

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US factory orders fell 0.7% month on month in December. Forecasts had pointed to a 1.1% rise. The result was below expectations. It shows orders fell over the month.

Factory Orders Surprise Signals Manufacturing Slowdown

Factory orders data for December 2025 showed an unexpected drop of 0.7%. Markets had expected a 1.1% gain. This miss points to a clear slowdown in manufacturing as we entered the new year. It also raises the risk of broader economic weakness, which can increase market volatility. Newer data supports this view. January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction at 47.2. The January jobs report also came in weak, with 95,000 jobs added versus 180,000 expected. Together, these signals suggest the cooling was not limited to late 2025 and may be carrying into the first quarter of 2026. Inflation is also easing. January CPI was 2.8%, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to rethink policy. The chance of an interest rate cut by mid-year is rising, which can make long-duration bonds and interest rate futures more appealing. Watch upcoming Fed speeches for any shift from fighting inflation toward supporting growth. Historically, several months of falling factory orders have often come before wider market downturns, including ahead of the 2008 recession. If that pattern repeats, it may be worth considering more defensive positioning. For example, put options on industrial sector ETFs or on the S&P 500 can help hedge against a deeper slowdown.

Volatility Strategies To Hedge Rising Uncertainty

Missing expectations by a wide margin increases uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to higher volatility. In this kind of environment, buying VIX call options or using VIX futures can be a direct way to benefit if market fear rises in the coming weeks. These positions can also diversify a portfolio if equities start to trend lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/JPY traded near 182.50 on Monday, down 0.15%, as markets waited for Eurozone inflation data and policy signals from Japan. Traders stayed cautious ahead of key releases due on Wednesday. Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.6 in February, above the 88.4 expected, and up from 87.6 in January. The Current Assessment Index increased to 86.7 from 85.7, while the Expectations Index came in at 90.5, matching forecasts.

Eurozone Inflation And Growth In Focus

Focus now shifts to Eurozone core HICP inflation. It is expected to come in at 2.2% year on year in January, down from 2.3% in December. Headline HICP is seen steady at 1.7%. Germany’s fourth-quarter GDP is also due on Wednesday. In Japan, National CPI rose 1.5% year on year in January, down from 2.1% in December, and core measures also cooled. Markets priced the chance of a BoJ rate rise at the 28 April meeting at about 70%. EUR/JPY remains closely tied to interest-rate expectations in both regions. Softer Eurozone inflation could pressure the Euro, while clearer signs of a BoJ hike could support the Yen. This is a key moment for EUR/JPY. The next few weeks may be driven by different central bank paths. The events to watch are the Eurozone inflation report and any BoJ guidance ahead of the April meeting. This policy gap could create an opportunity for traders looking for a possible move lower in the pair.

Trade Setups And Options Positioning

Markets expect Eurozone inflation to ease. That would support the European Central Bank’s current “wait-and-see” stance on rates. After the rate cuts seen from the ECB through 2025, inflation staying below 2% would back a more dovish view. That may make the Euro less appealing, especially against a currency where the central bank may be moving toward tighter policy. At the same time, the Yen is supported by the strong chance of a BoJ rate hike in April. In March 2024, the BoJ ended its negative interest-rate policy, and markets have been watching for the next step since then. Japan’s Ministry of Finance data showed foreign investors turned into net buyers of Japanese government bonds in late 2025, which has also helped support the Yen. With that backdrop, one straightforward strategy is to buy EUR/JPY put options. This lets traders position for a decline while limiting risk to the premium paid. It may make sense to consider expirations after the late-April BoJ meeting to capture possible volatility around that event. For a lower-cost alternative, bear put spreads may be suitable. This involves buying a put at a higher strike and selling a put at a lower strike. Doing so reduces the upfront cost. This approach fits traders who expect a moderate drop in EUR/JPY rather than a sharp selloff. Implied volatility on EUR/JPY options is likely to be higher ahead of these releases, which makes option premiums more expensive. This reflects uncertainty and the risk of larger price swings after the inflation data and central bank signals. Traders should account for these higher costs when placing new positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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TD Securities says the key U.S. data this week are producer prices (PPI) and consumer confidence. It notes that January PPI will help shape forecasts for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The firm expects February consumer confidence to rise to 85.5, up from 84.5 in January. It calls this a rebound, but says it would still be below the broader market expectation.

Key Inflation Signals Ahead

On inflation, it expects January core PCE to slow to 0.19% month on month, with headline PCE at 0.12%. It says this estimate is based on January CPI and will be updated after Friday’s January PPI release. After an upside surprise in December PCE, it now forecasts core PCE at 2.9% year on year and headline PCE at 2.7% year on year by end-2026. Other releases to watch this week include jobless claims and regional Federal Reserve surveys. The article notes it was created using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We expect inflation to stay stubbornly high, which could delay any near-term interest rate cuts. The stronger-than-expected December 2025 inflation report led us to raise our end-2026 forecast for core PCE to 2.9%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target. This suggests the Fed may keep policy tight longer than markets previously expected.

Positioning For Higher For Longer

This backdrop supports positioning for higher interest rates for longer. Derivatives trades may need to reflect fewer Fed rate cuts being priced into instruments such as SOFR futures through the rest of 2026. Options strategies that benefit from steady or rising bond yields may also work well, since returning to 2% inflation still looks difficult. At the same time, we see signs the consumer is under pressure, which complicates the outlook. Even if confidence rebounds to 85.5, that is still weak and far below the 100+ levels common before the pandemic. Because consumer spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy, softer sentiment could weigh on corporate earnings. Sticky inflation plus a weakening consumer could lift market volatility, making hedges more appealing. Traders may consider put options on major indices such as the S&P 500 to protect against a slowdown. The VIX, hovering near 14, suggests the market may be underpricing the risk that upcoming data releases trigger turbulence. A similar pattern played out in 2024: early optimism about disinflation was followed by months of persistent price pressure. Weekly jobless claims have also inched up from their 2025 lows, now averaging around 235,000. This is not alarming on its own, but it supports the view that conditions are getting more challenging. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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ING expects EUR/USD to rise through the rest of 2026 as US short-term rates fall and US growth slows in the second half of the year. It forecasts two Federal Reserve cuts this year and says stronger Eurozone data should support the pair. The bank does not expect the US dollar’s 2026 decline to be as large as its 2025 drop. It highlights US risks such as high equity valuations, fiscal problems, and political uncertainty ahead of the midterm elections.

Year End Target And Hedging Dynamics

ING sets a year-end target of 1.22 for EUR/USD. It also notes that high dollar hedging costs have kept hedge ratios low. It describes last year’s EUR/USD hedging levels as underhedged, especially early in the year. Its base case assumes a 50bp Fed cut while the ECB keeps rates unchanged. That would lower dollar hedging costs. In this scenario, ING expects dollar hedge ratios to rise to about 74% by year-end. The article says it was created with an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. Because the outlook for the US dollar is bearish for the rest of 2026, we believe traders should consider positioning for a higher EUR/USD rate. This could mean taking long positions, such as using futures contracts or buying euro call options. Since ING expects a gradual rise, traders may prefer to build positions over time instead of making one large entry.

Policy Divergence And Trading Approach

This view is backed by recent data showing the US and Eurozone moving in different directions. Last week’s US January retail sales report showed a 0.5% drop, which points to weaker consumer demand. Meanwhile, Germany’s latest IFO Business Climate index rose slightly to 92.1, suggesting a slow recovery is starting. Together, these signals support the idea that momentum is shifting toward the Eurozone. We expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates around mid-year. Markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of a first 25bp cut at the June meeting. By contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates steady. This would narrow the interest rate gap and reduce support for the dollar. This policy split is the main reason behind the forecast for EUR/USD to rise. In 2025, the dollar weakened and EUR/USD climbed from about 1.10 to above 1.18. That move helped set up today’s environment. This year’s rise is expected to be slower, but the trend is still higher. As US short-term rates fall, the cost of hedging the dollar should drop. That can lead to more hedging activity, which may weigh on the dollar over time. Because the expected move is a steady “grind higher” rather than a sharp rally, EUR/USD implied volatility may stay fairly low. Traders could look at strategies that benefit from this, such as selling out-of-the-money puts to earn premium while keeping a bullish bias. This can fit a slow move toward the 1.22 year-end target, aiming to gain from both the direction and time decay. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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