Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Affected by international holidays, the trading hours of some VT Markets products will be adjusted. Please check the following link for the affected products:

Notification of Trading Adjustment in Holiday

Note: The dash sign (-) indicates normal trading hours.

Friendly Reminder:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The market is buzzing about Trump’s upcoming nomination for the new Fed Chair. Many believe this could lead to a more dovish Fed, which might weaken the US dollar, raise Treasury yields, and boost stock prices. However, decisions about monetary policy involve 12 voting members, not just the Fed Chair. While the Chair carries weight, they don’t have all the power. The Fed is independent to prevent political influence, so changes in policy aren’t certain with a new Chair.

Policy Dynamics And The Fed

Trump’s nomination doesn’t automatically mean rate cuts. Previous nominations have shown that the Fed acts independently. For example, Powell, who was nominated by Trump, based his decisions on the economy’s needs, not on what the President preferred. There could be uncertainty around policy if there are disagreements within the FOMC. Right now, there are more members who are neutral or hawkish than those who are dovish. Keep an eye on economic indicators, especially how inflation affects interest rates and future Fed decisions. So far, there’s buzz about Trump’s potential choice for Fed Chair, and many think that a more dovish figure could push for easier policy. This could result in a weaker dollar, rising long-term yields, and maybe higher stock prices. But remember—while the Chair sets the tone, decisions are made by a group of 12 voters at the FOMC. It’s not just about personalities; data needs to support any decisions. Powell’s history shows us this: even if someone is appointed for specific reasons, they may not act as expected. He raised rates multiple times in 2018 and 2019, despite disagreement from the White House. The Fed’s credibility comes from reacting to economic signs, not from political applause.

Trading Desk Insights

For traders, who sits in the Chair matters less than what the group communicates after each meeting. Dovish leanings matter only when backed by data, like lower inflation or slower job growth. Currently, with most members leaning toward keeping rates firm, even a softer-spoken Chair won’t dramatically change the mood. Markets move based on expectations, but if those are shaky—more based on assumptions than facts—it can lead to volatility. Bigger price swings often happen not when policies are announced, but when future expectations are challenged. Unless inflation drops significantly and wage growth slows, the committee is unlikely to shift toward faster cuts than already planned. It’s wise to monitor core inflation, especially in services, since goods are already seeing a slowdown. Look at the forward swaps and futures curves — not just what they indicate, but whether they’ve become overly reactive. Rate volatility, especially in the short term, won’t stabilize until policy direction becomes clearer based on actual data. Recent comments from Harker and Waller show the committee isn’t rushing. Upcoming CPI reports will be important, and the PCE even more so. Movements in the breakeven inflation market will suggest how long-term expectations could guide the Fed’s decisions. A new Chair nominee won’t change that—data will always weigh more than an individual opinion. Traders should react to pricing changes instead of assuming policy directions. Positions should be based on probabilities, not headlines. Even if sentiment suggests cuts, indicators like FRA-OIS spreads should back that before taking action. Keeping duration exposure flexible, reassessing carry trades with currency overlays, and closely watching the next Summary of Economic Projections can be more effective than guessing on appointment outcomes. It’s the data points, not the figureheads, that influence expectations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The USDJPY pair is going down as the US dollar becomes weaker. Recent negative factors include dovish comments from Fed’s Bowman, suggesting possible rate cuts if inflation remains low. Iran’s recent actions, reminiscent of past occurrences, have influenced the market. Also, President Trump mentioned speeding up the announcement of a new Fed Chair. Month-end flows may also weaken the dollar. In Japan, the yen is stable as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains rates at 0.5% and tweaks its bond tapering plan. The BoJ is focused on the US-Japan trade agreement and inflation. On the daily chart, USDJPY is close to the 142.35 level, where buyers may come in. Sellers want to break below this point to aim for 140.00. On the 4-hour chart, dropping below 144.25 suggests more bearish momentum toward 142.35. However, if it rises above 144.25, buyers might drive it up to 146.28. The 1-hour chart indicates a downward trendline, showing bearish momentum. If prices rise above this trendline, it could attract buyers, but sellers are focused on a drop below 144.25. Upcoming data includes US Jobless Claims, US Q1 GDP, Tokyo CPI, US PCE price index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The earlier section clearly explains the recent movement of USDJPY. The decline highlights a weakening dollar, mainly due to Bowman’s comments about potential interest rate cuts if inflation stays low. This shifts market expectations toward a less aggressive monetary policy in the US, usually leading to a weaker dollar across major pairs. Geopolitical issues are also important. Iran’s recent actions echo past events, adding anxiety to market sentiment. Additionally, Trump’s mention of an early Fed Chair announcement introduces another uncertainty. These narrative shifts combined with possible month-end portfolio rebalancing are affecting the dollar’s recent decline. From Tokyo, there weren’t many surprises. The central bank left interest rates unchanged and made small adjustments to bond purchases. The BoJ is focused on domestic inflation trends and external pressures from the US trade relationship, and their control over the yen suggests confidence in their approach. If we look at key trading levels, the 142.35 mark has reappeared as a potential area for buying. There appears to be real interest from buyers at this level, possibly linked to previous demand zones on smaller timeframes. A significant drop below this level could lead the pair toward 140.00, as there isn’t much historical resistance in between. The 4-hour chart shows a consistent downward trend below 144.25. This level has become a key threshold; staying below it means bearish momentum is likely to continue. If prices rise above it, markets may move upward toward 146.28, but this would require new bullish signals from the US. On shorter timeframes, we see lower highs forming beneath a respected downward trendline. This trendline serves as a barrier. However, sharp moves above it could create bullish opportunities. Sellers have already shown strong interest just above 144.25. If prices drop below it, especially with high volume, more short positions may enter the market, focusing on the next major demand area at 142.35. There’s also a lot of economic data coming up. Any significant changes in this week’s US GDP or PCE price readings could shift inflation expectations and prompt adjustments in market positioning. Tokyo’s CPI will be monitored for indications that domestic inflation could rise again, possibly energizing discussions on policy in Japan. We will also watch S&P revisions to sentiment indicators like the Michigan release. Consumer sentiment typically impacts dollar demand, and when combined with PCE shifts, it can strengthen or weaken expectations about future Fed actions. While we stick to our technical maps, macroeconomic factors are currently more impactful than usual. When inflation either exceeds or falls short of expectations, trading positions can change rapidly, especially for short-term trades or any ties to US dollar strength.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

In May, South Africa’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to -0.3%, down from 0.5% in April. This indicates a trend in producer costs within the South African economy. In global markets, the Euro strengthened against the US Dollar and traded near 1.1700. The British Pound remained strong, staying above 1.3700 due to a weaker US Dollar.

Commodity Price Movements

Gold prices saw a slight increase but did not exceed $3,350 during early European trading. Bitcoin Cash gained 2%, nearly reaching $500. Tensions are rising in the Persian Gulf due to fears that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz. This concern intensified after recent US military actions in the area. South Africa’s drop in the Producer Price Index to -0.3% indicates a reduction in the prices that producers receive for goods. This suggests that cost pressures are easing in the supply chain, which may impact pricing strategies and profit margins across various export-related sectors. Generally, when producer prices decline, we can expect changes in consumer inflation and adjustments in firms’ profit planning. These shifts may influence monetary policy and currency values, particularly concerning the South African Rand (ZAR). With the Euro moving closer to 1.1700 against the US Dollar and the Pound staying above 1.3700, the USD is facing broader pressure. This trend seems related to decreasing expectations around the Federal Reserve tightening, alongside strong data from both the Eurozone and the UK. For those involved in currency derivatives, adjustments and implied volatilities, especially for the one-month period, may begin to reflect these shifts more clearly. During such times, we often see price ranges tested more quickly than anticipated, particularly as dollar-negative positions gain traction.

Market Reactions and Strategies

Gold’s inability to break through $3,350 in Europe shows a reluctance to fully embrace bullish positions amid global uncertainties. While there have been moderate ETF inflows, there is no clear sign of a major breakout. Safe-haven interest continues to provide some support, but market positioning remains cautious due to steady real yields and a lack of urgency in inflation hedging. Many tracking options flow have noted slight drops in implied volatilities, particularly at the high end, while short-term gamma has remained stable, indicating a balanced market with a neutral tendency. Bitcoin Cash’s 2% rise, nearing $500, reflects a growing risk-on sentiment in the digital asset market. We see pockets of momentum, particularly among altcoins outperforming major cryptocurrencies lately. There are signs that traders are seeking directional exposure, anticipating a potential breakout. However, historical resistance around $510-520 often triggers profit-taking, so flexibility in positioning is essential. Currently, shorter trades seem favored over longer strategies. Escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are a significant concern. Fears of disruption from Tehran, especially following US military involvement, are impacting freight risk premiums and raising speculation about oil transport restrictions. Volume in oil-linked contracts has increased, along with notable shifts in open interest for energy futures. For those concerned with geopolitical events, this represents not only an upside risk for crude oil but also affects transport costs and shipping insurance, contributing to inflation-linked pricing. Volatility surfaces suggest a heightened response, anticipating longer-term tensions. Monitoring how energy hedges adjust will be crucial. Proper positioning in related derivatives requires not only directional insight but also an understanding of how swiftly the market reacts to news from this key region. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

In the European session, ECB and BoE officials are scheduled to speak, but no changes in their current positions are expected. During the American session, key reports will be released, including US Durable Goods Orders, the final Q1 GDP, and US Jobless Claims. Durable Goods Orders are generally volatile and usually do not have a strong impact on the market. GDP data is often seen as outdated and does not significantly influence market decisions, which focus more on future expectations.

US Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims data is a crucial indicator of the labor market and provides up-to-date insights on employment trends. If the labor market shows clear signs of weakening amid rising inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve might consider rate cuts. Initial Claims are forecasted at 245,000, while Continuing Claims are expected to reach 1,950,000. However, some factors may affect these numbers, such as seasonal increases in claims during the summer and challenges in finding jobs due to economic uncertainty. Recent increases in Continuing Claims might not just indicate layoffs, but also difficulties in re-employment. Important speaker times in GMT include BoE’s Breeden at 08:30, ECB’s de Guindos at 09:45, and ECB’s Schnabel at 11:00. Fed and ECB officials will also speak later in the day. This text describes several economic events happening today. Although European central bank officials will speak, their views are expected to remain unchanged. They are likely to repeat what they have said in the past. Consistency from leaders like Breeden and de Guindos has become the norm, and markets seem to have adapted to their positions. Attention then shifts to the United States in the afternoon, where several important data points will be released. While Durable Goods Orders are on the agenda, their unpredictable nature means that many market participants may overlook them. This dataset often undergoes revisions and experiences sharp monthly changes, making the initial release less relevant. As a result, markets might ignore the headline entirely.

Market Focus and Policy Implications

The final reading of Q1 GDP will also be released, but the market already has a clear idea of what this will show. Since it reflects the state of the economy from months ago, it acts more as a historical reference than a guide for the future. By release time, investors are often more focused on current indicators. More important is the Jobless Claims data. Weekly claims provide a timely snapshot of employment trends. Predictions for initial claims hover around 240,000, with continuing claims expected to approach two million. While these figures are higher than previous months, they aren’t necessarily alarming by themselves. Context is important. An increase in the number of individuals relying on jobless benefits suggests difficulties in the labor market. There are seasonal trends during late spring and early summer that typically push claims higher—stemming from education, tourism, and contracts ending. This time period often introduces temporary distortions in labor market data, making it tricky to determine if the numbers represent short-term noise or a meaningful shift. If there are several weeks of rising continuing claims, especially without significant layoffs, it may indicate that workers are struggling to find new jobs. These updates are crucial when considering policy expectations. Fed Chair Powell and colleagues are already closely examining the labor market, and any substantial weakening could lead to changes in central bank policies. If inflation expectations rise but job data begins to weaken consistently, trade-offs will become more evident. As policymakers speak throughout the day, their statements are likely to be cautious. Schnabel and de Guindos will likely stick to known positions. However, slight changes in their wording can still influence market pricing, though shifts in tone typically reflect cumulative signals rather than isolated comments. For those who rely on short-term rates and volatility, it’s essential to stay alert for significant data shifts, even in a calm consensus environment. Since rates influence decisions on leverage, market positions should prioritize clarity over uncertainty. While Durable Goods and GDP data create background noise, labor market data—whether clear or messy—should be the main focus. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Germany’s consumer sentiment for July is measured at -20.3, based on the latest GfK data from June 26, 2025. This is a slight dip from the expected -19.3. The decrease in consumer sentiment is partly due to households wanting to save more. As income prospects improve, people are still feeling uncertain and choosing to put more money aside. This shows a growing hesitation among German households, which were already expected to have negative feelings. The GfK index fell from -19.3 to -20.3, indicating that consumers are less willing to spend, even with better income expectations. This isn’t contradictory—it’s how people behave when uncertain. Instead of spending more, many are saving more. This saving behavior, despite stable or even modestly growing wages, indicates a cautious mindset that remains strong. For those monitoring the markets, especially interest rates and equity volatility, this trend should be considered in strategy planning. The important takeaway from the GfK data is not just consumer feelings, but what these feelings mean for future spending and the overall economy in the eurozone’s largest country. When households save more even with better income, it often leads to weaker consumption data in the following weeks. If this saving trend continues, it may increase the gap between weekly retail figures and broader economic expectations. This could lead to quick changes in the markets, especially affecting European consumer stocks or sectors with fixed costs that depend on domestic demand. The timing of this report is significant, arriving just before the next eurozone inflation updates. If weak sentiment carries on, it could dampen any positive surprises in prices. Kroeger highlighted that the growing saving trend typically reduces the chances of an immediate spending rebound, so we will monitor inflation swaps closely for signs. The initial market reaction to the data was muted, potentially due to traders adjusting their expectations ahead of the upcoming ECB minutes next week. These minutes could shed light on how decision-makers view demand and whether they see this data as a sign of weaker spending momentum. If this perception spreads, it could quickly impact the entire forward curve. Sauter characterized the situation as mixed, which is accurate. However, in the options market, it’s important to note that realized volatility is currently low. This may change if upcoming macro data aligns with today’s weaker consumer sentiment. Implied volatility might increase if the market begins to predict slower economic normalization or weaker corporate earnings, both of which affect the demand for hedges. For now, we will focus on future guidance from retailers and short-term rates. Any disconnect between what is expected and actual spending data is likely to show up in these areas first.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US dollar continued to drop during Asian trading. The EUR/USD reached its highest level since September 2021, and the USD/CNY hit a low not seen since November of last year. Additionally, the USD/CHF fell to its lowest point since 2011, while currencies like the AUD, NZD, JPY, GBP, and CAD all gained strength against the dollar, along with an increase in gold prices. So far in 2025, the dollar has declined consistently, totaling nearly a 10% drop. This is the worst performance for the dollar in the first half of a year in about forty years.

US Fed Chair Appointment Speculation

The latest dip in the dollar was partly due to a Wall Street Journal article suggesting that Trump might rush to appoint a new Fed Chair to undermine Jerome Powell. Japanese markets reacted briefly to Akazawa’s comments against US auto tariffs, but this quickly faded. Reuters reported that the US allowed ethane shipments to China, which temporarily improved risk sentiment, although there are still unresolved issues with unloading at Chinese ports. In Japan, the auction for 2-year JGBs saw strong demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.90. The average yield was 0.729%, with the lowest accepted bid at 0.735%. The slightly widened auction tail indicates ongoing changes in short-term policy risks. This situation shows continued pressure on the dollar, which is now struggling against several factors. The overnight moves aren’t just temporary blips; they’re part of a longer trend that’s gaining momentum. The euro surpassing levels not reached since late 2021 indicates that deeper changes in expectations are at play.

Structural View on the Dollar

The dollar’s nearly 10% drop this year is a clear indication of weakened confidence, not just market sentiment. This represents the worst performance in four decades and suggests that trust in dollar-based assets is decreasing. Investors, especially those involved in interest-rate derivatives or currency volatility, should reassess current valuations compared to expectations for the rest of the year. The article suggests that political factors might change the Federal Reserve’s leadership. If policymakers in Washington decide to appoint a new central bank head sooner than expected—potentially favoring looser policies—the bond markets and rate-sensitive options may need to be re-evaluated. This isn’t just a speculative risk anymore; it’s reflected in a prominent article that prompts market reactions. The rise of gold alongside currencies like the AUD and NZD is not just a coincidence. Such alignment suggests that capital is being redirected. Price movements in commodities and foreign exchange indicate that hedging strategies are adapting to lower confidence in US returns. The concern regarding Japanese auto tariffs was short-lived, as traders quickly discounted its impact on policy in Tokyo. More importantly, the JGB auction showed exceptional demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio approaching four, indicating continued foreign interest despite yields being under 1%. The slight widening in the auction tail suggests that while demand is robust, it is selective. Market participants may now be questioning the sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s short-term policies. The brief spike in risk sentiment after news of US-China ethane shipments indicates hopes for improved trade flows, but without concrete details on port activities or approvals, a significant rise in emerging market commodity demand is unlikely for now. In the coming days, we must pay attention to shifts in positioning in the short end of the rates curve, especially as central bank policies worldwide may need to respond if trends in foreign exchange and commodities start affecting inflation expectations. Traders in rate-sensitive products should revisit their hedging strategies and volatility exposure across different time frames. Spreads that widened earlier this year may now be narrowing for reasons beyond mere noise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The US Dollar continued to fall due to weaker housing data and news that Trump might nominate someone early for the Federal Reserve Chair position in September or October. The Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen at 97.20. Normally, the Federal Reserve Chair is nominated three to four months before their term starts, and Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. An early announcement could help the new chair influence market expectations about interest rates.

Geopolitical Easing and Currency Movements

The Euro strengthened as Germany increased its spending on defense and infrastructure. At the same time, a trend of selling USD, a stronger Chinese Yuan, and easing geopolitical tensions brought gains for the Taiwan Dollar, Thai Baht, and South Korean Won. The daily momentum for the US Dollar shifted slightly negative, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining. If the index closes below the previous lows of 97.50/60, it could find support around 97, while resistance remains at 98.60 and 99.30. The Euro/US Dollar pair stabilized near 1.1700, while GBP/USD stayed above 1.3700. Gold prices maintained a positive outlook in the wake of a weaker USD, but without strong bullish momentum. Bitcoin Cash approached the $500 mark, boosted by recent price increases and on-chain data. Given weaker-than-expected housing data and the potential early nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair, the dollar has continued to slide, with the Dollar Index (DXY) now at 97.20. This index shows the strength of the US Dollar against other currencies. This time, the news about a possible early nomination adds an unusual twist, likely changing market expectations much sooner than usual. Usually, nominations happen shortly before the sitting chair’s term ends, but an early signal changes speculation about policy consistency, inflation control, and asset sales. We are not only looking at policy trends; we’re also considering market psychology and how expectations might shift ahead of schedule. Traders need to adjust their approach to pricing risks linked to Treasury yields and inflation. With European fiscal policies becoming more expansive, especially Germany’s renewed focus on defense and infrastructure spending, the Euro is gaining support. Traders betting on EUR/USD are starting to see returns, as regional growth sentiment is less dependent on a cautious European Central Bank. Increased government spending is expected to boost the Euro without an immediate need for rate increases.

Asian Currency Dynamics and Market Momentum

In Asia, there is a general decrease in reliance on the US Dollar, not only due to news from the Fed but also because geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait have lessened. This has positively impacted the Taiwanese Dollar, Thai Baht, and South Korean Won, which often reflect risk sentiment. The Chinese Yuan also showed resilience, thanks in part to state banks managing offshore liquidity more effectively than anticipated. Dollar momentum indicators are not encouraging. The RSI’s decline matches the overall trend but is not overly aggressive. If the index dips below 97.50, the next support level would be around 97. A significant drop below that could lead to a shift in USD positioning, especially among leveraged traders holding DXY futures. Resistance levels stay clear at 98.60 and 99.30, keeping the options-selling strategies within a narrow risk range. The Euro-Dollar pair is stable near 1.1700 without much demand for significant intraday increases. GBP/USD remains above 1.3700, with discretionary flows still favoring sterling as UK political challenges appear to have eased for now. A lack of hawkish surprises from the Bank of England may lead traders to broaden their expectations, particularly in calendar spread strategies. Gold prices have maintained a slight upward trend this week, but inflows into bullion ETFs indicate a lack of strong conviction. Although the dollar is weakening, we haven’t seen powerful breakout signals, making gold a less appealing short-term buy unless linked to broad risk-off strategies, which haven’t gained much momentum. Bitcoin Cash has moved closer to $500, with recent on-chain data showing an uptick in wallet activity and transaction volume, which aligns with speculative interest. This doesn’t eliminate medium-term risks related to cryptocurrencies but may create opportunities for intraday price movements, inviting some volatility traders. In the upcoming days, as the focus shifts between US political developments and differing paths of central banks, it’s essential to keep an eye on both headline data and narrative changes. Unexpected announcements or shifts in communication could result in abrupt changes in implied volatilities. This is crucial for trading strategies in FX options or short-term futures. Slower momentum in dollar trends might encourage contrarian setups, though volume and conviction are still lacking. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now