The Bank of Japan’s Tamura believes that raising interest rates soon isn’t necessary. He mentioned that rates could go up if risks increase, but this would only be needed if price risks grow enough to put the BOJ behind. Tamura said there’s no set date for the next rate hike, as it will depend on how tariffs impact the economy. He has softened his previous cautious approach, ensuring he aligns with the overall BOJ stance. His recent comments clearly show that the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to tighten policies. While he recognizes that rising prices—especially those influenced by tariffs—might eventually need a response, he stressed that any decision would rely on data. This reflects a balance between caution and readiness, indicating the bank would act on inflation risks if they increase, but not before. The key takeaway is Tamura has toned down his earlier views. Instead of pushing ahead of the group, he now shares the broader sentiments of the BOJ, promoting a consistent message. This shift shows a desire to keep policy aligned within the board, especially given growing uncertainties abroad and the fragile state of Japan’s recovery. The bank wants to avoid any messages that might confuse the markets or hint at an early policy change. Given these developments, options traders might want to rethink any short-term bets on swift policy changes. With no clear timeline and a preference for reacting, the chances of sudden rate changes in the coming weeks seem low. Instead of anticipating volatility from central bank actions, focus should turn to incoming economic data, particularly inflation rates, wage trends, and consumer feelings. We’ve noticed that expectations for more frequent rate changes often rise quickly in derivative pricing—sometimes too quickly compared to actual policy. Tamura’s comments remind us that the BOJ still favors patience. This doesn’t mean no changes will happen, but it does caution against acting prematurely without solid data. Therefore, it might be wise to look at volatility surfaces, especially in JPY-linked instruments, for any mispricing that suggests a quick shift is likely. Also, monitoring skew across short-term expirations can provide insight into how others interpret this communication. Furthermore, while economic risks from protective tariffs are highlighted as reasons for future action, the uncertainty of these measures makes them difficult to predict. Pricing them accurately now is quite speculative. This means we are not only watching for big economic surprises, but also for any tone changes from board members who might have previously favored a more aggressive stance. Tamura’s shift may not mean a permanent consensus, but it does steer market expectations toward a more cautious approach. In the short term, strategies assuming increased volatility from the BOJ may not be the best choice. Patience might yield better results than betting on significant policy changes. If price risks do rise, the BOJ might act—but only if necessary, and not by a pre-set plan.

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**EUR/USD Psychological Barrier** The euro-dollar pair has moved higher, closing just above 1.1600. While this may not seem like a big deal, there’s more at play. The option set to expire at 1.1650 is significant. This price level is more than just a number—it’s a psychological barrier that traders are closely monitoring. It may resist any further upward movement, especially if volatility remains low. If this happens, 1.1650 could act as a short-term ceiling. In this context, the stability of the dollar plays a key role, potentially limiting euro gains. For dollar-yen, the situation is more complex. After the pair was rejected by the 100-day moving average, it is now hovering near the 200-hour moving average at 145.10. This isn’t just a statistic; it’s a test of the pair’s short-term strength. Recent dollar weakness has added tension, and while the expiries at 144.50 and 145.00 aren’t huge in volume, they are significant because they align with these technical levels. With these barriers set, price movements are currently restricted as we approach the next trading period in Europe. **Trading Activity Within Range** Considering these elements—option expiry points, technical tests, and moderate momentum—trading is likely to continue within a narrow range until one of these levels is convincingly broken. We’ve noticed that when technical and option-related barriers combine, prices often move sideways, adjusting to position flows until a decisive action is taken. For now, small trades near these known boundaries are clearer than trying to force a breakout that doesn’t happen. As expiry times approach, the urge to anticipate moves before levels are broken can lead to frustrating swings. We’ve seen this pattern too often. It’s more effective to react than to predict, especially when directional flows are driven by time-sensitive factors instead of headlines or broader economic indicators. The best strategy is to stay tactical. Monitor traded volumes closely as expiry approaches. When levels align with periods of price hesitation, they tend to hold their ground. From a risk perspective, it’s also crucial that there are no conflicting patterns suggesting sudden shifts. This means that any retreat from key points—like 1.1650 for euro-dollar or just above 145 for dollar-yen—should be respected unless there is clear volume and follow-through that breaks this expectation. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BOJ policymaker Naoki Tamura has observed that inflation is rising faster than he expected since May. While there is some clarity on US tariffs, predicting the economic outlook remains difficult. Tamura suggests that the Bank of Japan might need to act decisively if price risks continue to grow. The BOJ has been somewhat passive during the US tariffs dispute, but some central bank members seem eager to start discussions again. Tamura’s comments indicate a change at the Bank of Japan. Instead of caution, there is now a hint that they may act more quickly. The way inflation is talked about has shifted—it’s no longer seen as a distant issue, but as something urgent, happening faster than expected. This shift signals a need for preparation. This change implies that upward pressure on consumer prices is seen less as temporary. It suggests that tightening monetary policy could be on the table. Tamura’s remarks hint at an ongoing internal discussion that is heating up but not completely settled. Even with some uncertainty lifted regarding American tariffs, domestic pricing pressures are likely to take center stage. For us, this positioning is crucial when assessing interest rate risks. If certain policymakers are ready to adjust policy, especially if inflation rises again even slightly, fixed income instruments could face challenges. Any changes would need to be carefully measured and responses prompt. Expectations should also adjust regarding the risk-reward ratio in yen-related carry trades. A decisive move from the BOJ—whether verbal or otherwise—could trigger currency shifts that unwind long-held positions. Therefore, we must monitor leverage more closely. Current exposure may be manageable, but that could change if the central bank stops being passive. In this situation, upcoming data releases like the next CPI print or consumer confidence readings are not just predictions but important signals. A faster-than-expected CPI could ignite significant changes. For those trading related futures or options, it’s important to pay close attention to forward rate agreements. Now, it’s more about timing than direction. Pricing risk emphasizes the order of events over the next quarter. As the gap between the BOJ’s decisions and market expectations narrows, we can expect rising volatility. Although bond volatility indexes are currently low, they have shifted in the past during quiet weeks. Keep an eye on updates related to balance sheet discussions in the board minutes. Signs of asset trimming alongside talks of rate changes would mean reassessing liquidity assumptions. Consequently, risk premiums tied to Japanese government bonds could undergo re-pricing that spreads outward. Additionally, take note of what hasn’t been said in the past month. Fewer communications often signal an upcoming need for clarity, whether in action or stance. It’s prudent to prepare for both possibilities. Initially, keep spreads tight. Be cautious with cross-border positioning—the situation may be changing.

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Markets are quieting down as the conflict between Iran and Israel becomes less significant. At the start of the week, there was a lot of activity, but now things have settled. Major currencies are mostly stable, with the dollar slipping. As tensions ease, riskier investments are gaining traction, pushing the S&P 500 closer to a new record, while US futures remain steady. Focus is shifting back to economic factors like Trump’s tariffs, trade issues, and actions by central banks. Fed Chair Powell recently mentioned possible rate cuts while pointing out various economic risks. He also noted that price increases are expected in the third quarter, which makes a rate cut in July less likely.

Anticipated Rate Cuts

Traders are predicting a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of Q3, though it’s unclear if more cuts will occur in September. Currently, there is an expectation of about 60 basis points in cuts by year’s end. European trading today is expected to be calm, with market movements affecting overall sentiments. The economic calendar shows only Spain’s final Q1 GDP and Switzerland’s UBS sentiment data, which suggest that markets are still adjusting after the recent conflict. This article highlights a clear change in focus now that urgent geopolitical risks are fading. The tensions between Iran and Israel, which had previously created volatility, are now being set aside, allowing financial markets to stabilize. As the week goes on, market activity slows and investors seem more willing to take risks. The dollar has weakened, and equity markets, particularly in the US, are nearing new highs. Powell’s comments have added complexity to the policy outlook. He suggested that while rate cuts are possible, his observation of increasing inflation in the third quarter puts that timeline in question. This shows a cautious approach — he’s keeping options open without rushing into decisions. Traders had anticipated a 25 basis point cut, possibly in July, but growing concerns about ongoing price pressures cast doubt on that scenario. Currently, expectations indicate about 60 basis points in cuts by year-end, suggesting two small reductions or reluctance to proceed further.

Inflation And Market Adjustments

Market participants aren’t completely dismissing the idea of rate relief, but they are reconsidering how soon it might happen. Investor confidence seems to depend on upcoming inflation data over the next few months. This data will be crucial in determining if more easing can be justified. Short-term interest rate products are experiencing minimal adjustments today, reflecting a cautious stance. As trading begins in Europe, activity remains low. Without new data from the eurozone’s main economies, any movement will likely come from technical factors or developments elsewhere. Spain’s final GDP and UBS’s sentiment index from Switzerland don’t provide much new insight. Therefore, today’s volatility is not driven by significant macro news. This environment calls for a shift to slower, data-driven movements. With fewer headlines impacting performance, chart analysis becomes more important, and short-term trends gain significance. As implied volatility decreases, opportunities evolve. We should focus on term structures for options and implied move pricing for the July and September contracts. Earlier expectations for sharp market moves may have been overly optimistic — risk appears mispriced on both ends. Now, as markets shift from geopolitical concerns to monetary speculation, the softening of dollar pairs and narrowing yield curves should not be seen as indecision. Instead, they suggest cautious optimism or careful positioning ahead of upcoming economic signals. What’s important now is the rate and nature of inflation, as that will impact spreads more than any current headlines. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Forex Trading Overview

The EUR/USD rally has paused between 1.160 and 1.165 as traders await strong macroeconomic data from the US. In Europe, attention is on the NATO summit, where concerns about US security commitments are affecting market sentiment. The movement of EUR/USD is heavily influenced by the US Dollar. Limited gains have been seen despite unrest in the Middle East. The EUR/USD rate is under close examination as the US Dollar remains strong due to geopolitical events, with traders closely watching signals from the ECB and Fed. In forex trading, EUR/USD has dipped to 1.1600, while GBP/USD is trading within a narrow range above 1.3600. During the European session, gold prices have shown slight increases, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are looking for potential breakout points. Oil markets are on high alert due to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz closing amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries significant risks, so traders must analyze their goals and experience thoroughly before participating in the market. Choosing the right broker is crucial for traders. We have compiled a list of top forex brokers for EUR/USD in 2025, highlighting those with competitive spreads and strong platforms. The current EUR/USD rally has reached a standstill around 1.160 to 1.165. This pause is not due to specific events in Europe but rather a lack of decisive macroeconomic updates from the US. Traders seem hesitant, preferring to hold back until clearer information emerges from the US. Many are focused on US interest rates and inflation figures, and without new updates, there appears to be limited enthusiasm for further gains. In Europe, political risk is indirectly affecting currency sentiment. The NATO summit has raised security questions related to the US’s role in regional defense. These geopolitical concerns likely contribute to a more cautious approach from US investors considering European investments. Nevertheless, the euro has shown resilience despite the volatility stemming from military tensions in the Middle East and changing alliances.

US Dollar and Commodities Update

The US dollar’s strength continues to keep pressure on EUR/USD levels. This firmness persists even amid international tensions, indicating a solid demand for the USD. The support for the dollar likely comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current stance longer, or possibly even tighten, based on upcoming labor market and inflation data. Powell’s recent comments, while not aggressive, suggest that rate cuts are unlikely soon. GBP/USD has maintained its position above 1.3600 but is not showing significant movement. This stability reflects a lack of surprises in the UK and a wider market waiting for direction from US yields and global risk trends. It’s also important to note that the pound is sensitive to US developments, especially through correlations with equities and short-term bonds. In the commodities market, gold has seen slight gains this morning, continuing its usual role as a safe haven. However, even this increase has not attracted much participation. The recent rise in gold prices is more related to hedging strategies than a full shift to safe havens, particularly in light of potential escalations in the Middle East. Oil has become a key focus this week, with worries over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to increasing tensions between Israel and Iran. These risks are reflected in higher futures prices and concerns in transport-linked equities. Any information regarding shipping insurers or naval activities in the area could lead to sharp adjustments in risk and commodity-linked currencies. This scenario also suggests that implied volatility in energy markets is likely to stay high, a factor traders should be aware of. Digital assets are starting to gain traction again, with Bitcoin and Ethereum nearing points for potential short-term trends. While still early for a breakout, traders should closely watch the volume. Recently, these assets have shown speculative momentum, reflecting broader risk flows from tech and high-beta sectors. For those involved in leveraged products, like futures and options, it’s important to reassess exposure strategies this month, especially if linked to FX or commodity indices. Currently, volatility expectations do not fully capture potential event risks from geopolitical sources and policy changes. Trading conditions could shift quickly, especially if bond markets begin pricing in higher premiums or if central banks change direction unexpectedly. Risk managers should prepare for wider ranges to accommodate unexpected price moves and slippage. Broker latency, execution quality, and stability have proven critical during past periods of energy-driven volatility. It’s no surprise that tighter spreads and efficient trading infrastructures have set apart those who thrive in high-frequency strategies from those struggling with delays or re-quotes. The latest comparison of active providers for 2025 includes assessments that go beyond marketing claims, focusing on fill rates and order consistency during pressure. This empirical approach is advisable, especially as another potentially unstable quarter is on the horizon. In summary, traders should move away from solely directional bets and explore option strategies, correlation shifts, and hedged approaches that allow for controlled exposure with limited downside risk. As always, macro triggers do not occur in isolation—they are often preceded by price movements, order book changes, and shifts in capital across markets days in advance. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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In Japan, the Services Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 3.3% from a year ago, slightly down from April’s 3.4%. This shows continued domestic inflation pressures. At a recent Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, the benchmark rate stayed at 0.5%. The central bank is cautiously reducing its balance sheet due to worries about weak growth and inflation expectations. Opinions among policymakers vary, with some pushing for a more significant rate hike. Tamura Naoki, speaking in Fukushima, mentioned that stronger rate hikes could happen if inflation risks rise. He suggested that inflation may reach the 2% target sooner than expected due to rising wages and prices. After his remarks, the yen briefly strengthened but later settled back to mid-range levels. In Australia, April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data missed expectations. The headline CPI was at 2.1% year-on-year, while the trimmed mean CPI fell to a 3.5-year low of 2.4%. This has increased the likelihood of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), now estimated at 90%. The AUD/USD pair rose, helped by general weakness in the US dollar, which also boosted the New Zealand and euro currencies. China’s Premier Li Qiang spoke about shifting toward a consumption-driven economy while maintaining growth. The New Zealand dollar performed well, partly due to Australian selling of AUD/NZD. The piece summarizes recent inflation trends and central bank actions across key economies, each influencing market dynamics differently. In Japan, the May PPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, which is slightly below April’s 3.4% increase, indicating persistent price pressures at a slower pace. The Bank of Japan held its benchmark rate at 0.5% in its latest meeting. While there is some push for a stricter policy, caution prevails due to concerns about economic growth and stable inflation expectations. Some policymakers, including Tamura, are ready to act if inflation signals escalate. His comments in Fukushima hinted that the central bank might hit its 2% inflation target sooner than anticipated if wage growth translates into higher consumer prices. This sparked a brief rise in the yen, though gains were quickly lost, suggesting that markets want more decisive moves. In Australia, inflation numbers for April were lower than expected, with headline consumer prices at 2.1% year-on-year and a trimmed mean at its lowest in over three years. These results have heightened expectations for a rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting, with market odds now over 90%. The Australian dollar improved partly due to a weaker US dollar, which also lifted the New Zealand and euro currencies. China’s strategy, focusing on consumption rather than exports or investments, indicates a shift in policy intent. While challenging to maintain, it shows an interest in boosting domestic spending. The New Zealand dollar saw gains recently, not just from global trends but also from Australian traders adjusting their AUD/NZD positions. So, how should this be viewed? In Japan, inflation pressures are still significant, even with slight recent changes. The BOJ’s divided stance might lead to uneven reactions to new inflation data. This could favor those positions that are already leaning toward a hawkish view. However, with no immediate changes, patience is essential. In Australia, the drop in trimmed mean CPI signals easing pressures, supporting dovish policy expectations and reinforcing short-duration trades. However, with market views so strongly one-sided, any unexpected data could quickly shake up local bond and currency markets, which usually respond momentarily. For China and New Zealand, we are observing secondary effects. Currency flows between these nations often relate more to relative positioning than domestic conditions. As Li pushes for structural transformation, surprises in Chinese activity can influence not just the renminbi but also high-risk currencies tied to China’s growth, like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Timing is crucial here. With central banks responding at different paces, distinguishing fleeting market noise from lasting price trends is essential. Some patterns reverse quickly, while others don’t. But when clearer directions emerge from data or policy shifts, we are ready to act.

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USD/CHF hovered around 0.8050 during European hours, moving sideways after a 1% drop the day before. The pair showed little change after the release of the Swiss ZEW Survey Expectations, which reported a decline of -2.1 for June, an improvement from the prior -22 drop. The USD/CHF remains near its lowest level since September 2011, hitting 0.8034 on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc is benefiting from safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar has weakened due to news of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Trader Caution Over Ceasefire Longevity

Traders are cautious about how long the ceasefire might last. A US intelligence report stated that US strikes have only delayed Iran’s nuclear progress by a few months, while Iran insists its program is still ongoing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts might be delayed until the fourth quarter, with future cuts depending on timing. Data indicates that tariffs are expected to raise inflation for consumers starting in June. The ZEW Survey Expectations measure business and employment conditions in Switzerland. The latest figures show a decline from previous months, which may be bearish for the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF is trading narrowly in the lower 0.8000s, close to levels not seen in over a decade. After a sharp 1% drop in the prior session, the pair has stalled, lacking momentum to either recover or decline further. The market’s muted reaction to the Swiss ZEW expectations shows a level of passivity, despite a slight improvement compared to May’s more negative results. The small rebound in the sentiment index, rising from -22 to -2.1 in June, indicates less pessimism in Swiss business expectations, although it remains below zero. Investors do not seem to view this as a strong reversal. Even with improvement, the number is still historically negative, so optimism is limited. The strength of the Swiss Franc is largely due to its safe-haven appeal. With ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East—especially with new intelligence from Washington—markets fear that tensions might escalate again. Although the ceasefire appears promising, it hasn’t provided lasting security, particularly given Iran’s claims about its nuclear program continuing despite US actions. In uncertain times, investors tend to favor the Franc, and this trend continues.

Central Bank Communication and Rate Expectations

The softness of the US Dollar is not just about geopolitics. Central bank communication is also influencing the market. Powell’s recent statements suggest that the Federal Reserve is not ready to implement rate cuts soon. Mentioning quarter four as the earliest point for a potential rate adjustment implies that policymakers want to avoid hindering progress on inflation. Their timing depends on more evidence and they aim to prevent premature demand increases. Another factor being priced into the market is the impact of trade protections. Recent data indicates that tariffs could begin to accelerate consumer price inflation starting in June. This effect will be gradual, but the nature of derivative pricing may mean that these impacts are already reflected in US-linked pairs. In this environment, short-term options pricing remains sensitive to event risks and long-term positioning. In pairs like USD/CHF, which are influenced by policy divergence and safe-haven demand, hedging flows can change rapidly. This week may not offer high confidence in predictable market movements. Currently, movements trend slightly downward but remain small. Since Tuesday’s lows, there hasn’t been strong accumulation. It’s essential to stay alert to news regarding geopolitical tensions and rate expectations, as volatility can erupt suddenly. Given that the Swiss currency may be more affected by global risk factors than local data, and that the Dollar is increasingly responsive to signs of slower easing, the direction of the pair may depend more on news than on momentum. Traders looking to manage exposure should consider this and not solely rely on charts, paying attention to rates, energy markets, and broader credit movements for early signals. In the current context, short-dated premiums may be more warranted than usual, especially around news-heavy sessions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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RBC expects Chinese stocks to stay within a specific range in the second half of 2025. US-China trade talks and company earnings will likely play a big role in their performance. RBC believes that while a worst-case trade scenario has been avoided, we will still see some ups and downs as negotiations continue. They’re noticing signs of recovery, and the impact of US tariffs is becoming more obvious.

Earnings Resilience and Possible Growth

The focus is on how stable earnings can be and if the rise in earnings per share (EPS) can lead to further improvements in stock values. Possible positive surprises may come from government reforms, like better market access and changes in industrial policies. What this means is that we shouldn’t expect sharp movements in Chinese stocks in the coming months. Robertson’s team thinks these stocks will mostly respond to economic signals and policy updates instead of purely market emotions. While the market won’t be completely predictable, its current behavior shows it’s cautious and waiting rather than aggressively pushing forward. Expectations for increased trade tensions have lessened, so worst-case outcomes like harsh tariffs or sudden sanctions seem unlikely at the moment. However, news from the US can still quickly affect stock prices. This means we should be ready to react but not overreact. As tariffs start to impact profits, any changes will show up in forecasts before anything else. Currently, those signals are mixed but not alarming.

Potential Reforms and Timing of Fiscal Changes

Earnings are slowly starting to rise again, which is more significant than usual. If increased EPS comes with higher sales and better profit margins, it indicates genuine growth, not just a temporary trend. This could allow stock valuations to rise naturally rather than just from market sentiment or extra liquidity. We’re watching how this develops in different sectors, particularly in financials and large industrial companies. If positive changes do happen, they will likely come from specific reforms rather than broad announcements—such as improvements in state-owned enterprises or policies that make it easier for consumers to access financing. Even small actions, like expanding pilot zones or relaxing quotas, can impact global market confidence, especially if they bring more regulatory clarity. The kind of fiscal support given will also be important. Approvals for new infrastructure projects or financial aid to struggling areas can create real changes and lead to quick adjustments in stock evaluations. We’re preparing to monitor not just the policies stated, but how quickly they are implemented. The timing is often more crucial than the message itself. If promised fiscal support doesn’t arrive as scheduled, it can lead to shifts in market positions, even if help eventually comes. In this situation, being flexible and focusing on liquid, responsive assets makes more sense than investing in fixed long-term positions. No single piece of news will drive the market’s future movements. However, a mix of steady earnings, gradual reforms, and timely stimulus could lead to market changes. Timing our trades to align with that connection—where data shows improvement and policy implementation follows—is key. For now, we should focus on what we can already see and be ready to act quickly based on the next developments. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Gold prices in Malaysia rose on Wednesday. A gram is now priced at 453.25 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR), up from 452.75 MYR the day before. The price of a tola increased to MYR 5,286.57, from MYR 5,280.75. Gold prices are determined by converting international rates to local currency, with daily updates reflecting market changes. Gold is a safe-haven asset and a way to store value, often used to protect against inflation.

Central Bank Strategies

Central banks keep large gold reserves, amounting to 1,136 tonnes in 2022 as part of their economic strategy. Countries like China, India, and Turkey are leading in increasing their gold holdings. Gold prices fluctuate due to various factors. They tend to move inversely with the US Dollar and Treasuries. Geopolitical instability or fears of a recession can push prices higher, while lower interest rates usually help gold. Conversely, a stronger dollar can cause gold prices to fall. Locally, we’ve noticed a slight increase in gold prices—nothing drastic, but notable. The rise from 452.75 to 453.25 MYR for a gram, along with similar trends in larger units, indicates ongoing buying interest. This could be due to economic concerns or expectations of softer policies internationally.

Global Market Linkages

Gold prices in Malaysia are tied directly to global benchmarks, updated in real-time as currencies fluctuate or traders adjust their positions. The connection to international rates, particularly the US Dollar, means that even small changes in global signals can impact prices sharply. For example, stronger dollar days often lead to lower gold prices since gold is priced in USD. Thus, when the dollar weakens, gold becomes more expensive in MYR. Central bank actions also matter. When institutions like the People’s Bank of China or Turkey’s monetary authorities increase their gold reserves, we see this as more than just a routine move. It could signal a hedge against currency pressure, or a shift towards greater diversification. The significant purchases in 2022, exceeding a thousand tonnes, show a sustained demand that supports prices. The relationship between gold and fixed-income investments is well-understood. When yields rise, gold becomes less attractive since it doesn’t earn interest. Investors often shift their money elsewhere, particularly to US Treasuries. Conversely, if bond yields drop or recession fears rise, gold tends to perform better. Therefore, we must watch upcoming central bank decisions and inflation trends, as these will influence market sentiment. Recent geopolitical events in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia have shown how quickly risk can affect prices. During uncertain times, physical buying often increases, lifting prices. This behavior reflects a desire for safety rather than speculation. However, traders should not be complacent. Rising real yields in the US can decrease gold’s appeal. Monthly inflation data—especially core inflation and wage growth—will also determine how policymakers set rates moving forward, impacting gold prices. In the coming week, attention should focus on the trends of the dollar index and short-term expectations in the bond market. If technical factors align with fundamental trends, such as a decline in short-term yields or more dovish monetary statements, we may see continued support for current prices. But if inflation proves stubborn or if the Fed hints at more rate hikes, we could face downward pressure. Those involved in trading should monitor not only price movements but also what influences bond markets in New York and forex flows during Asian trading hours. While prices may shift by just half a ringgit daily, external forces are at play that go beyond local trends. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The global economy and international trade face new challenges. The economic system is changing, with international trade structures adjusting and supply chain risks on the rise. Some regions are hindering international market cooperation, citing the need for risk management. While disruptive factors impact the global economy, positive forces aim to find common ground. It is essential to stay on the correct path and align with current trends to reshape international economic rules. Economic globalization continues to evolve, presenting complexities that require effective measures to support free trade. China is working to boost global connectivity and promote sustainable development. It is actively involved in G20 and BRICS discussions. Recent data indicates that China’s economy improved in the second quarter, showing strong growth. Its transition from a manufacturing hub to a major consumer market offers expanded opportunities for global businesses. China is dedicated to sharing technologies and innovations, emphasizing adherence to market principles. It opposes the politicization of economic matters and encourages a focus on long-term goals. The government supports entrepreneurship and invites international businesses to invest in China. It also stands against decoupling and disruptions in supply chains, advocating for stability and cooperation globally. The key takeaway is clear. The economic framework is under subtle but observable stress, primarily due to countries’ positions on trade and cooperation. While some governments are pushing for self-reliance through localized supply chains, China is promoting openness, trade reliability, and broader participation in global rule-making. Data from the second quarter shows real progress in consumption growth within China, reinforcing its shift towards a more domestically focused economic model. While gross domestic product figures don’t tell the whole story, they highlight the importance of consumption as a key driver of growth, more so than just headline manufacturing exports. This shift emphasizes internal demand as the main driver. This change has direct implications. With the domestic market attracting global producers, sectors connected to consumer goods—such as transportation, technology, premium products, and select services—appear promising. This is not a definitive roadmap, but a sign that increasing demand is part of a long-term strategy, rather than a temporary correction. One notable aspect is the active encouragement of shared innovation and technology partnerships. This is genuine, not just talk. The structural approach advocated by Wang suggests stronger legal protections for foreign participants and openness in procurement, which helps alleviate geopolitical fears and offers business predictability. Practically, this approach enhances opportunities for companies involved in bilateral supply routes. Policies that discourage decoupling reinforce expectations of market continuity, even from those who have previously indicated a retreat. This stance is not neutral; it clearly advocates for integration. This perspective is vital for making informed decisions—not solely based on a trade war, but on the likelihood of a structured reprioritization of supplies. We should regard calls for certainty in trade not as mere diplomatic language, but as a desire for conditions that minimize friction in cross-border pricing and limit costs for end consumers. Less uncertainty typically leads to narrower price ranges in sectors tied to imports, which warrants attention for both opportunities and caution. From a risk-adjusted investment strategy, clear guidance on entrepreneurship indicates that funds directed towards domestic projects will have some policy support. The potential for productivity gains exists, particularly in technology-linked facilities and inputs. Li’s statement about avoiding the politicization of business should inform our approach. It is not just a slogan; it represents a rejection of retaliatory trade measures. Movements in tariffs or export controls from other nations are likely to be met with measured responses rather than aggressive pushback. This creates a softer environment, encouraging some companies to revert to familiar channels rather than explore more complicated, stretched routes. Trade-related derivatives—especially in raw materials and major bulk carriers—may experience relative stability in the mid-term if investment flows stabilize. Those watching for volatility from disruptions in logistics may notice these signals calming. While risk rarely vanishes, the direction appears clearer. Ultimately, the message emphasizes continuity through engagement. No system is without challenges, but the preference here is apparent: steady integration, predictable economic diplomacy, and openness to foreign capital are themes that should help stabilize pricing in the coming weeks. We need to adapt accordingly.

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