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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1656, a decrease from previous levels

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.1656 for the next trading period. This is a slight change from the previous rate of 7.1710. The Reuters forecast had expected it to be 7.1605. The PBOC aims to keep prices stable and promote economic growth. As a state-owned bank controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, it impacts the financial market through different monetary policies.

Monetary Tools of the PBOC

The PBOC uses various tools, including the seven-day Reverse Repo Rate, Medium-term Lending Facility, and Reserve Requirement Ratio. The Loan Prime Rate is crucial, affecting both loan and mortgage rates, as well as savings interest. It also impacts the exchange rates of the Renminbi. While state banks dominate, China has 19 private banks, with WeBank and MYbank being the largest. Since 2014, private lenders have been fully funding their operations within China’s financial sector. The central rate’s new fixing at 7.1656 indicates a small strengthening of the Renminbi against the US Dollar compared to yesterday’s rate of 7.1710. It’s also slightly higher than the Reuters estimate of 7.1605, suggesting the central bank is cautious about a stronger currency. These rate fixings guide market expectations rather than letting market forces dictate currency movements completely. This adjustment suggests a careful approach rather than sudden changes. Traders focusing on short-term hedges or synthetic forwards should pay attention to the differences between expectations and the fixed rates. Zhou’s bank is careful with its monetary tools, aiming to support economic growth without causing inflation. The continued use of the seven-day Reverse Repo Rate and adjustments to the Medium-term Lending Facility show that liquidity operations are still in play. We think the yield outlook for shorter-term rates is stable, which affects swaps and options pricing. This suggests that medium- to long-term signals should be interpreted with considerations for potential Reserve Requirement Ratio changes.

Impact of Loan Prime Rate Adjustments

Any change to the Loan Prime Rate, though not announced recently, will impact fixed income markets and RMB derivatives. Keeping the current rate steady creates opportunities for structured strategies, especially for those taking views tied to rate adjustments or changes in bank liquidity. Even minor policy changes are calculated carefully rather than made impulsively. The 19 private banks, including MYbank and WeBank, while smaller than state banks, still provide valuable insights. These banks use digital platforms and alternative credit models, which may not drastically alter overall liquidity, but they can indicate consumer demand or funding issues in small and medium enterprises. When observing forward curves or basis spreads, especially in the onshore-offshore context, it’s important to consider risks linked to policies or lending preferences rather than assuming uniform market behavior. Looking ahead, pricing in interest rate derivatives, especially those connected to repo benchmarks, should reflect the PBOC’s careful planning. Flexibility in tenor allocations, strategic hedging, and awareness of both fixed and trending rates will be necessary. We anticipate potential pricing variations if credit flows change between state and private banks. Thus, keeping funding models adaptable across front-end curves is wise. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa plans to make a seventh trip to the US for tariff discussions soon

Japanese media reports say that Japan’s Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, is making plans for his seventh trip to the United States. This visit is set to begin on June 26 and will focus on tariff talks. This will be the first high-level meeting about tariffs since the Japan-U.S. summit in Canada on June 16. The discussions aim to tackle trade issues between the two countries. Recent developments suggest rising trade concerns between the United States and Japan. Akazawa’s upcoming trip highlights a significant shift in how tariffs are being addressed, as previous talks often only mentioned economic topics indirectly. These meetings will be the first at a ministerial level strictly centered on tariffs since the recent gathering in Canada. The timing is crucial, as it builds on earlier discussions and brings up how both nations are managing domestic inflation and international competitiveness. This change is important because it offers new insights into pricing expectations, especially for sectors tied to exports. Tariffs can greatly influence futures markets and volatility. These talks have a clear focus, reducing uncertainty, which is generally better than open-ended speculation. What does this mean for short-term pricing expectations? For those tracking options linked to major exporters or Japanese industrial goods, these negotiations might affect implied volatility. Industries sensitive to cross-border tariffs, like autos or electronics, could react based on any leaks or statements made before the meetings. Keeping an eye on local media and adjusting hedges accordingly may help manage any sudden changes in pricing. At this point, it’s smart to review open positions that rely heavily on JPY-related inputs or are directly affected by East Asian manufacturing. Pay special attention to contract expiration dates and exposure to delta/gamma near this event. There may also be brief opportunities for strategies like straddles or strangles if news leads to increased volatility. We are preparing not only for the outcomes of these negotiations but also for the tone of the discussions. If the messaging from Washington is clear and reassuring, even small policy changes could lower implied volatility after the meetings. However, if the language used suggests tension, volatility may rise, especially as month-end approaches when liquidity can tighten. In summary, timing is key. There’s a scheduled event and known topics of discussion. This clarity is much more favorable than unplanned risks. Traders focused on short-term positioning should adjust their portfolios with this structure in mind rather than relying solely on wider market trends. Be prepared for potential ripple effects that will be prominently noticeable.

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Oil and US dollar decline in morning Asia trading amid ceasefire developments

Oil prices have dropped after a ceasefire announcement. Former President Trump claimed that Iran and Israel agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.” There was some confusion when CNN stated that Iran had not received any proposal. However, Reuters later confirmed the ceasefire agreement through a senior Iranian official.

Impact On Global Currencies

Along with the fall in oil prices, the US dollar has weakened. Meanwhile, the Euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, British pound, and Japanese yen have all gained strength. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc have not changed much. The ceasefire raises hopes for lasting peace, though uncertainty remains. The recent oil price drop resulted from Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Confusion began when CNN reported that Iranian media hadn’t acknowledged any formal proposal. However, Reuters later confirmed that a senior Iranian official accepted the ceasefire, briefly stabilizing the situation. Markets reacted predictably. Oil prices softened as fears eased regarding this significant oil-producing region. At the same time, the weakening US dollar hinted that investor sentiment had improved. Key global currencies rose as a result. The Euro gained slightly, while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars also increased. The British pound appreciated due to the overall weakness of the dollar, and even the Japanese yen saw demand, indicating reduced interest in the safety of the US dollar.

Analysis Of Market Reactions

Not all currencies followed this trend, though. The Canadian dollar, which usually connects with commodities, remained stable despite the oil price drop. This suggests that traders may have already been positioned ahead of the announcement. Similarly, the Swiss franc, another safe haven, showed little change, indicating that traders had begun reducing their exposure before the news was fully confirmed. What does this mean? The reported ceasefire triggered short-term investor optimism: reduced demand for the US dollar, improved sentiment for riskier currencies, and selling pressure on oil-linked assets. However, traders should be careful not to assume this is a new normal. The uncertainty surrounding the announcement highlights the fragile nature of the agreement. With mixed reports, a flexible approach is crucial—trading based on speculation rather than confirmed facts carries higher risks. Given how different assets are behaving, we can expect more volatile movements if more details arise or if tensions escalate again in the region. Oil-linked derivatives may be particularly vulnerable if optimism begins to fade. Similarly, forex pairs sensitive to broader sentiment shifts, like AUD/USD or NZD/JPY, may face reversals if market conditions worsen. Now is not the time to chase rapid changes; instead, focus on whether any following developments are credible. The Reuters confirmation helped stabilize the situation, but further verification is needed before prices can settle completely. Upcoming volatility may be driven more by news headlines than by solid fundamentals. In the meantime, traders may need to manage their position sizes and tighten risk limits. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Dow Jones drops after earlier gains following reports of an Iranian attack on US forces

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell back on Monday after starting strong. This drop came as news broke about rising conflicts in the Middle East. Iranian militants reportedly fired a rocket at the Al-Asad Airbase, which is shared by US and Iraqi forces. Following recent US missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran is allegedly retaliating by targeting US military locations. Reports from Israeli officials and Iran’s Tasnim news, connected to the IRGC, indicate that Iranian forces have launched missiles at US bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Market Implications

This situation comes with risks and uncertainties. It highlights the importance of thorough research before making any financial decisions. The article reminds readers that individuals are responsible for any investment risks, including potential losses. No specific investments, stocks, or trading recommendations are made here. The content may contain errors, and the author and platform do not provide personalized investment advice. They also disclaim liability for any inaccuracies or losses related to this information. As military targets in Iraq and Qatar have been hit, markets are reacting with unease. Earlier this week, the Dow’s decline came after reports of Iranian attacks on US and coalition military sites. If these attacks continue or worsen, they raise concerns about geopolitical tensions affecting energy routes, supply chains, and market confidence. The recent attack near the Al-Asad base—a key site in earlier conflicts—occurred soon after the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities. This sequence is important; it serves as a reminder that cycles of retaliation often escalate quickly, impacting market sentiment. We are already noticing market reactions. There’s increased variability in derivative markets, including equity futures and energy options. There’s a noted rise in the prices of large-cap index options, as traders anticipate lower liquidity and more cautious moves. When such news comes in waves, markets adjust quickly, often without waiting for confirmation.

Necessary Adjustments

What we need now is not a hasty retreat, but an adjustment. Looking at past events, like tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or earlier issues with Iraq, we see that spikes in volatility can be brief or prolonged, depending on upcoming news cycles. Those making directional bets should reassess their strategies, especially in sectors related to energy, defense, and transport. We’ve noted an increase in short-dated puts, particularly in the 5-10 delta range, indicating that cautious market participants are hedging against risks. While these changes are significant, they are not yet panic-driven; they reflect a shift towards protecting portfolios from unpredictable outcomes. It’s also important to watch energy futures closely. With growing concerns about regional crude production and transportation, options on Brent and WTI are starting to respond. The call skew indicates that oil traders are reassessing potential supply disruptions and storage needs. Ignoring these signals could mean missing out on vital price information. However, caution is needed to avoid overreacting. Geopolitical events can cause market overreactions. Discrepancies in skew, especially in index options, present opportunities and mispricings that should not be overlooked. In the past, we’ve seen short-term hedges fade before volatility catches up, creating windows where theoretical models may lag behind actual behavior. Reviewing exposure—especially Vega and Gamma—can offer tangible advantages. Lastly, it’s crucial to recognize how positioning can influence outcomes. A crowded short-volatility trade before a geopolitical incident can lead to rapid losses when market sentiment shifts. In the coming days, it will be helpful to not only track headlines but also identify where crowded exits might be. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Iran and Israel reportedly reach a full ceasefire, leading to falling oil prices and rising equities.

Trump has announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” for 12 hours. This ceasefire is set to begin in about six hours. As of now, there has been no official confirmation from either Israel or Iran regarding this agreement.

Market Reaction

Following this news, crude oil prices have continued to fall, while US equity index futures are rising. Trump shared news about a 12-hour ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which he called “Complete and Total.” According to his announcement, the ceasefire will start roughly six hours later. However, neither Israel nor Iran has confirmed or denied this claim yet, leaving the situation unverified. The market quickly reacted to the announcement. Crude oil prices are dropping, likely due to reduced worries about supply risks in the region. On the other hand, US equity index futures are climbing, possibly indicating relief among investors or adjustments in their positions. Traders who were cautious might now be easing back in response to the temporary drop in regional tensions. In previous situations this year and late last year, we observed similar market trends when geopolitical concerns seemed to lessen. Commodities related to conflict, like oil and natural gas, often pull back, while equity-related instruments, especially index futures, tend to recover quickly. It’s worth noting that past ceasefires in the Middle East have often led to lower volatility in higher-risk assets, but those conditions can change rapidly.

Futures Positioning and Strategy

From a tactical standpoint, we’re seeing lower implied volatility in short-term oil options. This often attracts short gamma positioning seen during quieter geopolitical times. However, trying to capitalize on this opportunity early might be too soon. In three out of the last five instances where regional tensions eased, tactical buyers pulled back within one or two sessions, especially when information was unclear, as it is now. Since there’s no formal agreement from the involved parties, and previous announcements show that unverified news can lead to sharp market corrections in both crude and equity indices. Today, futures positioning in the S&P complex has shifted. A swift movement into Nasdaq futures right before the announcement suggests that there might have been some anticipation. If that’s the case, short-covering may have already taken care of some immediate concerns. We’ll watch how the opening flows in regular cash markets unfold, to see if more investors will get involved or if this was simply caution from overnight traders. In these situations, small changes in volatility products for energy and equities can mislead traders into feeling overly confident. For example, the front-month OVX has sometimes reacted too strongly to diplomatic news that quickly reverses within 48 hours. Remember what happened in late March? A similar drop in implied volatility didn’t last long, providing little benefit for passive sellers. That being said, it’s not just the announcement that matters; we need confirmation—or lack of it—within the next day or so. Market makers have already started adjusting prices for options related to Brent and WTI, indicating uncertainty rather than calm. Additionally, we see sizable open interest in WTI puts around $81.50, which may limit further declines, especially if confirmation doesn’t come. At this point, acting on unconfirmed reports could lead to poor decisions, especially with significant economic reports coming in two days that might overshadow current geopolitical news. Keep an eye on how Brent futures contract terms adjust around the second and third expiry windows—short sellers took profits quickly last time conditions eased without follow-through. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US dollar weakens from mixed PMI data and dovish comments from Fed’s Bowman, benefiting the Indian rupee

The Indian Rupee dropped against the US Dollar after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites, pushing the USD/INR close to 87.00. However, it later regained strength due to mixed US PMI data and dovish remarks from Fed Bowman, which reduced the demand for the Dollar. During the European session, the USD/INR pair stabilized, and the Rupee strengthened in the American session. This recovery was supported by strong domestic PMI figures and falling crude oil prices, helping the pair move away from 87.00. Currently, it’s trading around 86.54, but the Rupee’s outlook is still cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions have unsettled global markets, raising fears of retaliation in the Middle East. Crude oil prices spiked due to concerns over the Strait of Hormuz but eased as immediate supply risks were reassessed. This volatility can pressure the Rupee, especially since India heavily relies on imported oil. India’s economic dependence on imported crude poses risks if oil prices rise sharply, which could worsen the trade deficit and drive up inflation. The Reserve Bank of India may act to prevent the Rupee from falling to 87.00 against the Dollar. However, positive domestic economic signals, such as strong PMI data, provide some stability amid global uncertainties. With the USD/INR pair around 86.54, the recent fluctuations of the Rupee show a struggle between global influences and domestic strength. The earlier rise towards 87.00 was partly due to US airstrikes on Iran, which raised fears of long-term geopolitical issues. Initially, this led to a weaker Rupee as India, an energy-importing economy, braced for higher oil costs and their impact on its current account. Nonetheless, the Dollar’s subsequent decline aligned with less impressive US PMI data and a softer promise from Bowman of the Federal Reserve. This renewed interest in riskier assets and prevented further strength of the Dollar for now. It hints at a market shift, where mild US economic weakness raises questions about the Fed’s future rate hikes. Bowman’s comments suggested that the central bank might favor maintaining rates rather than increasing them, provided inflation remains steady.

Domestic Economic Indicators

In India, encouraging signs continue to emerge. Strong PMI data reflects solid business activity in both manufacturing and services, indicating healthy sector-wide demand. Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices, following initial supply concerns, alleviates fears about increased import costs. Since India imports over 80% of its oil, fluctuations in Brent or WTI prices significantly impact the trade balance and the Rupee’s purchasing power. When global oil prices fall, the pressure on the Rupee lessens. However, the potential for sustained appreciation seems limited in the near term. Geopolitical events in the Middle East could quickly change sentiment. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial area, and any disruption in tanker movement could raise market anxieties again. While India may not be directly involved, it remains vulnerable to oil supply disruptions. This situation means we must closely watch two developments: international energy prices and the direction of US monetary policy. If oil prices rise again, the Rupee could weaken, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to intervene subtly, helping to keep it from falling below 87.00 through forex operations or managing liquidity. Though not officially stated, similar stabilizing actions have occurred before during sudden declines. US bond yields are also important to monitor. While real yields have slightly decreased, they remain high enough to attract foreign investments, which could pull capital away from Indian assets. This situation puts pressure on the Rupee, although any changes in yield trends due to weak US economic data could provide some support for the currency. In summary, market participants should stay adaptable, interpreting each new piece of data—whether it’s a PMI release or a shift in energy prices—as important information. The path ahead won’t be characterized by straightforward trends but by gradual adjustments influenced by major themes: global energy concerns, shifting central banks, and a positive local business climate. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Consumer sentiment rises in South Korea as inflation expectations drop, according to central bank data

South Korea’s consumer sentiment index hit 108.7 in June 2025, up from 101.8 in May. This number is the highest since June 2021. In June, consumers’ inflation expectation for the next 12 months fell to 2.4%, down from 2.6% in May. This is the lowest level since October 2021. The Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank, provided this data. The 108.7 reading shows that households are feeling more positive about the economy, jobs, and their personal income. A score above 100 means more consumers are optimistic than pessimistic about future conditions. The seven-point increase in just one month suggests a quick change in sentiment. This could be due to better job conditions, higher disposable income, or less pressure from rising prices. The drop in inflation expectations from 2.6% to 2.4% indicates that consumers expect slower price rises over the next year. This change isn’t just a mind shift; lower expected inflation can make consumers spend more rather than save. It can also reduce demands for higher wages. Lower inflation expectations might mean households feel less financial strain, which could boost overall spending in the short term. Looking ahead, how this affects pricing in medium-term interest rate swaps and options is crucial. The Bank of Korea will likely see this data as a reason to keep current policies rather than make immediate changes. Stability in prices meeting the 2% target gives the central bank a bit more flexibility. If perceptions of inflation stay low and sentiment remains high, we could see an increase in short-term consumer spending, signaling potential growth. Kim’s office will monitor this closely. Investors have begun adjusting rate futures to reflect a more stable inflation outlook, even as yields stay steady. With sentiment at a four-year high, the chances of a near-term policy easing are low. While the market’s reaction to this data hasn’t been loud yet, there is potential for repositioning as we move into July and watch for more consistent CPI trends. Therefore, we should prepare for changes as participants adjust their expectations before the next meeting. For instance, steepeners might attract interest if sentiment grows and short-term rates remain stable. Keep an eye on risk reversals in short-dated KRW options: while implieds may not react immediately, deltas will indicate where the focus is. As inflation expectations lower, the focus shifts to compressed breakevens. Swaption desks might be adjusting exposure, not because of current data, but due to what it tells us about consumer demand trends in the coming quarters. You won’t see many short-vol buyers unless it’s linked to specific hedges. While some model-driven desks may still maintain neutral positions, we’ve noticed momentum traders reducing their short bets in this area, waiting for new macro catalysts for direction. We’ll keep an eye on July’s business sentiment data. If it supports the current trend, short-term volatility could begin to rise, even if historical rates stabilize. For now, the market seems to lean toward a slight repricing of risk rather than a major macro adjustment.

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Concerns about Iran’s retaliation decrease as US equity indices rise, including gains in major indexes.

US stocks showed strength on Monday after an initial drop due to the US bombing Iranian nuclear sites. By lunchtime, the Dow Jones was up 0.16%, the S&P 500 rose 0.34%, and the NASDAQ increased by 0.43%. Worries about possible Iranian retaliation had impacted the markets. However, there were growing thoughts that Iran might wait before launching counterattacks, despite its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important route for over 20% of the world’s oil supply.

Oil Prices and Economic Factors

Oil prices dipped slightly, with WTI Oil falling less than 1% to $73.37. Positive economic indicators helped the situation, as S&P Global’s PMI for manufacturing remained at 52, beating the expected 51. Existing home sales for May also increased by 0.8%, contrary to the predicted drop of 1.3%. Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman hinted at a possible rate cut by July, which provided additional support. Industry news was also favorable, with Boeing up over 1% following safety updates, while IBM and Tesla stocks saw significant gains. Markets started the week strong, shaking off early anxiety tied to the airstrikes in Iran. After a cautious morning, stocks rose as traders processed news from the Gulf. The small change in oil prices suggested the market was reacting more to talk than action—for now. The earlier tensions from military actions and heated discussion around the Strait of Hormuz briefly increased volatility. However, with no immediate retaliations and energy flows stable, concerns about lasting disruptions vanished quickly. Current trading volumes and options interest in crude contracts show a measured approach, avoiding short-term panic.

Economic Data and Policy Signals

Economic data continued to support the markets. The S&P Global PMI remaining above 50 indicates ongoing manufacturing growth, despite tighter financial conditions. Housing data also surprised positively, with existing home sales showing stronger demand. This rebound, especially after a weak forecast, stabilizes asset classes sensitive to yields and mortgage rates. Bowman’s remarks hinted at potential easing sooner than previously expected, with July now considered by some market players as the time for cuts. This opens up new opportunities for positive speculation in the near term. While this doesn’t ensure anything, especially with mixed views within the Fed, the dovish message was clear enough to shift market positioning. Beyond broader economic and geopolitical issues, specific sectors made significant contributions. Boeing’s stock increase followed what seems to be renewed confidence in addressing long-standing safety concerns. This timing is interesting, as safety issues were back in the news just days ago. Still, it appears that traders viewed recent regulatory discussions as progress toward long-term fixes. Tech and auto sectors also performed well. Tesla’s gains came from strong delivery forecasts and excitement around its software plans. Meanwhile, IBM showed unexpected strength in cloud margins, attracting bullish interest in both sectors when positive results emerged. We believe short-term options strategies will remain sensitive to geopolitical developments. However, two key indicators—volatility selling and low out-of-the-money skew in indices—suggest range-bound price movements in the near term. Although risk appetite hasn’t fully bounced back, it hasn’t completely faltered either. As we watch implied volatility curves, it’s clear that near-expiry contracts are quick to adjust to geopolitical risk. Yet, many are hesitant to extend protection beyond that. We’re looking to see if a more defined trend emerges. For now, our strategy leans towards selling at the top of a range and favoring spreads over straight delta-heavy positions. The activity around rates volatility indicates a shift rather than a pullback—market pricing reflects more emphasis on potential Fed easing in the coming quarter rather than in 2025. This is particularly noteworthy as the US dollar’s performance levels out and yield curve trades show a growing consensus surrounding a summer pivot. In this period, we can expect frequent short-term fluctuations, but directional bets still feel measured without clear news signals. We’ll stay agile, focusing on relative value and market dislocations instead of making bold bets on broader trends—at least for now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US stock indices close near daily highs, supported by buyers and falling interest rates

The major US indices closed lower than their highs, as the market reacted to tensions from the US entering the Iran/Israeli conflict. Initial gains came from lower interest rates and hopes that recent bombings would lead Iran to negotiate. Comments from Fed’s Bowman, similar to those from Fed’s Waller, hinted at a possible rate cut in July if inflation stays stable. The chances of a July cut rose to 23%, while the likelihood of a September cut exceeded 80%. Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz open suggested a move away from further conflict.

Iran’s Symbolic Counterattack

The markets rallied further when Iran’s attack on a US military base in Qatar was seen as mostly symbolic. Iran’s warning and intercepted missiles that caused no damage helped ease tensions. Final numbers showed the Dow increasing by 374.96 points, or 0.89%, reaching 42,581.78. The S&P index rose by 57.33 points, or 0.96%, to 6,025.17, and the NASDAQ climbed 183.56 points, or 0.94%, to 19,630.97. The S&P closed above its 100-hour moving average and tested the 200-hour moving average. The NASDAQ also finished above its 100-hour moving average. If both indices stay above these averages, we may see continued upward momentum. Recent sessions have shown a market dealing with ongoing uncertainties while holding onto technical support levels that provide short-term clarity. The response to global events—tempered yet revealing—suggests that traders anticipated escalation but faced something less disruptive, which helped stabilize sentiment as long as tensions don’t rise again. From our perspective, the late-session rebound shouldn’t be mistaken for a complete return of risk appetite. Prices were supported not by strong conviction but by a decrease in perceived geopolitical risk. This environment often leads to wider options pricing during the day, with futures becoming more sensitive to news and price movements becoming exaggerated around known technical levels. We saw this especially around the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which influenced positioning, particularly in tech.

Fed’s Rate Narrative

Bowman’s remarks added more clarity to the interest rate narrative, confirming that as long as the upcoming CPI data remains stable, a July rate adjustment is possible. This subtle reinforcement can lead markets to respond to consistent messaging, especially when the overall policy direction feels unclear. Waller’s earlier comments laid the groundwork for this; the reiteration shifted probability models accordingly. Futures linked to the Fed funds rate are now reflecting this change clearly. Derivatives traders must balance technical levels with future volatility pricing. While spot indices may show momentum, this is partly due to seasonal lower volumes and hedges related to policy expectations. We should also consider the impact of variance sellers, who will now reevaluate their risk tolerance given ongoing unpredictability abroad. There’s renewed interest in downside protection that wasn’t visible two weeks ago. We’ve noticed new inflows into short-dated puts, especially in broader indices. This suggests that even though markets closed higher, the overall sentiment is more cautious than enthusiastic. Callable spreads and vertical structures are being adjusted mid-week more actively than usual. While the overall strength in equities suggests calm, the shift in volatility risk premium deserves attention. As long as implied volatility remains steady and realized volatility stays low, options market participants will price in stability—even if only temporarily. We’re observing areas where profit-taking has happened consistently this month. Short gamma exposure has increased near these levels, which if broken with volume, could lead to further gains in a chaotic manner. In this context, patience is crucial. The speed of response will shift from central banks back to traders. With the current trends in cross-asset correlations and the strength in large-cap growth stocks, it’s better to limit directional trades and focus on delta-neutral strategies for the short term. The data suggests it’s not the right time to chase gains, nor to back off without a proper trigger. In the coming days, we should watch calendar spreads around key expirations closely. Short volatility plays may be profitable, but only if executed with tight risk controls and a clear understanding of upcoming events. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Pound rises to 1.3500 against the Dollar as risk sentiment improves amid Middle East tensions

The GBP/USD exchange rate increased to 1.3500, bouncing back from a low of 1.3369. This rise was partly due to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who indicated a possible rate cut in July. In the UK, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.3, while the US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was at 52. However, the Services PMI fell from 53.7 to 53.1. Middle East tensions added to market uncertainty as the US struck Iran’s nuclear sites, prompting Iran’s parliament to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this situation, the White House is seeking a diplomatic solution. Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel and may take further actions soon.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD’s upward trend encounters resistance at the 20-day SMA of 1.3508, aiming to challenge levels of 1.3550, 1.3600, and the year-to-date high of 1.3631. If the pair closes below 1.3500, a pullback targeting the 50-day SMA at 1.3399 may happen. Recently, the British Pound was particularly strong against the New Zealand Dollar. As GBP/USD approaches the 1.3500 mark, it’s evident that Bowman’s recent comments surprised the market, giving the pound a boost just when it seemed to stall. The market viewed her comments on a July rate cut as a necessary adjustment due to ongoing disinflationary pressures and mixed US economic signals. Consequently, we saw renewed interest in selling dollars, readjusting market positions ahead of the core PCE report. Meanwhile, a slight increase in UK services activity hints at some resilience, although it remains fragile. The Flash Services PMI’s rise above 50 indicates mild expansion, but it’s not significant enough to change monetary policy expectations. Nonetheless, the lack of further decline helped keep pressure on the pound limited. We have observed before that weaker US data combined with slightly positive UK figures tends to favor a short-term bullish trend in GBP/USD. How this unfolds will rely heavily on whether the Bank of England surprises markets in July or stays with a cautious approach.

Market Sentiment

Overall, market sentiment is shaky. Escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Gulf region are pushing up oil prices and affecting currency flows. Earlier, investors had sought safety in the US dollar, but Washington’s mixed signals between military action and diplomacy complicate this safe haven story. Initial reactions in oil and gold suggest many traders believe diplomacy will prevail—for now—though the risk of further retaliation keeps uncertainty alive. Currently, the upward path for cable appears stable, provided the pair stays above its short-term moving average. The 20-day SMA, now at 1.3508, is a vital threshold. We are closely monitoring it—if it breaks above this level, the pair could quickly test the 1.3550 level. Resistance levels above are at 1.3600 and the yearly high of 1.3631. Each level holds potential for increased volatility depending on market positioning towards month-end. If the price falls and cannot hold above 1.3500, it might shift market sentiment. In that case, attention will turn to the 50-day SMA at 1.3399. A break below this could prompt a reassessment of risk appetite due to selling pressures and a shift to safer assets. In other markets, sterling has performed well against the Kiwi, which seems intentional. There’s a clear policy divide and distinct growth prospects between the UK and New Zealand at this point. A growing trend is emerging to pair sterling’s strength against commodity-linked currencies facing pressure from declining global demand. We expect more traders to emphasize this cross-trade as macro themes evolve in July. The coming weeks will be crucial for determining continuing trends or reversals, especially as macro data from both countries coincides with geopolitical updates. While the general direction appears clearer, actual price movements will determine if current market positioning is correct—or if it needs adjustment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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