US initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, exceeding the expected 235,000. The previous week had reported 240,000 claims.
Continuing claims were at 1,904,000, just below the anticipated 1,910,000 and down from 1,919,000 before. This increase in initial claims is the highest since October, leading to a decline in the US dollar.
The latest data indicates a noticeable rise in initial jobless claims, reaching levels not seen since October. At 247,000, it significantly surpassed expectations, suggesting the labor market may be weakening more than predicted. Meanwhile, the decrease in continuing claims suggests a potential drop in long-term unemployment or at least more movement in the job market. While the headlines highlight the rise in initial claims, the lower number of ongoing claims adds complexity to our understanding of the situation.
The falling dollar indicates that markets are quickly adjusting their expectations for interest rates. This shift suggests growing confidence that a pause or shift in policy might be needed sooner than expected due to signs of cooling in employment. The combination of higher-than-expected weekly claims and lower long-term filings creates a contrast that markets are now processing.
In his recent comments, Powell emphasized the importance of upcoming data. He was cautious about committing to any specific actions, keeping options open based on future inflation and job figures. This flexibility is now being closely examined.
Markets are starting to view recent labor data as a reason to lower US yields. The yield curve has reacted sharply, especially at the short end. The two-year Treasury saw a notable increase in demand after the data release. This trend shows that traders are beginning to question how long current policy rates will last.
Positions linked to rate expectations, such as Fed Funds futures and eurodollar options, are starting to show a higher chance of easing in the next two quarters. Changes in implied volatility, especially in swaptions, highlight how quickly market sentiment is shifting. Traders are responding to both the possibility of an economic slowdown and the Fed’s increasing dependence on data.
For those in these markets, it’s crucial to pay attention to the overall changes—not just in job figures but also in yields and expected probabilities. The speed of these movements matters just as much as their direction. When jobless claims unexpectedly rise alongside falling bond yields, it strengthens the view that the market is growing skeptical about prolonged policy tightening.
Looking ahead, the next few weeks contain risks related to more employment reports. Any deviation from the current disinflation trend could push rate expectations back up. However, as things stand, futures markets suggest that policy easing may happen sooner than previously thought just two weeks ago.
This environment requires careful positioning. Volatility smiles are steepening in interest rate products. This isn’t random; it’s a sign that asymmetry is affecting market pricing. The right side looks less intimidating than before, while the left side is attracting protective measures.
We’re facing a growing disconnect between official communication and market perception. This mismatch presents both opportunities and risks.
US unit labor costs for the first quarter have been revised to a 6.6% increase, up from the earlier estimate of 5.7%. The initial figure showed a 5.7% rise, significantly higher than the last quarter’s 2.0% rise.
Productivity, on the other hand, fell by 1.5%, a revision from a previous drop of 0.8%. Last quarter, productivity had seen an increase of 1.7%. This new data indicates rising labor costs alongside a decrease in productivity.
Labor Costs Versus Productivity
We’re seeing a notable rise in unit labor costs for the first three months of the year, now at 6.6% instead of the initial 5.7%. This shift not only shows that labor is costing businesses more but also puts pressure on profit margins, especially in sectors where wage increases are hard to pass onto consumers.
At the same time, productivity figures have been revised to show a drop of 1.5%, a notable change from what was thought to be a smaller decline. This shift is particularly meaningful since the previous quarter had shown productivity growth of 1.7%. When companies spend more on labor but get less productivity, it raises inflationary concerns.
This mismatch between labor costs and productivity points to declining production efficiency. It’s not just a change in numbers; it directly affects views on long-term inflation. If businesses keep facing rising labor costs without improved output, then price pressures won’t lessen just because demand slows.
These updates have a significant impact on future policy expectations. Powell and his team have been adopting a “wait and see” approach, especially concerning whether current financial conditions are enough to control inflation. The rising labor costs and falling productivity do not support this strategy; instead, they suggest that inflation may be less influenced by weakened consumption than previously thought.
Impact On Policy And Market Expectations
For those of us monitoring these trends, the focus in the second quarter shifts from reacting to rate decisions to understanding persistent input costs. The continued wage pressure, even with declining output, indicates that broader disinflation may take longer to occur—if it happens under current policies.
Additionally, this data likely lowers the chances of multiple interest rate cuts soon. Information like this changes how we assess future probabilities, and we shouldn’t expect easing unless we see a clear improvement in productivity. Currently, there’s little evidence to suggest that producers will find relief in labor costs soon.
Rates volatility, especially for medium-term maturities, may remain stable. Market behavior has already shown some resistance to aggressive predictions of rate cuts, and this data keeps that perspective alive. It could lead to a reconsideration of certain investment strategies, particularly where previous assumptions relied on an economic slowdown.
Furthermore, with rising labor costs and decreasing output, questions about financial health in labor-intensive sectors may arise, especially when profit margins are already tight. This could lead to increased volatility in individual credit ratings if the overall economic outlook remains uncertain.
In summary, the numbers reveal a consistent theme: inflation won’t decrease just because overall numbers weaken. As long as production costs continue to rise and worker output declines, those who expect a gentle easing of inflation may be misjudging the near-term policy and risk landscape. We should prepare for pricing disparities to persist into summer.
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In April 2025, the US international trade balance was -61.6 billion USD, better than the expected -70.0 billion USD. The previous balance was revised from -140.5 billion USD to -138.3 billion USD. The goods trade balance in April was -86.97 billion USD, showing significant improvement from March’s -87.62 billion USD and the prior month’s -147.85 billion USD.
Exports increased by 3.0% in April, compared to just 0.2% in the previous month. Imports dropped sharply by 16.3%, a major change from a 4.4% rise before. March had the largest trade imbalance on record due to imports rising ahead of planned tariffs. However, the big drop in imports in April, especially for consumer goods like pharmaceuticals, helped the trade balance recover. Despite this improvement, the trade balance returned to levels seen in late 2023.
So far in 2025, the goods and services deficit has risen by 179.3 billion USD, or 65.7%, compared to the same time last year. The USD/JPY exchange rate moved from 143.17 to 142.84, influenced by jobless claims data that affected the dollar negatively.
April’s trade balance improvement might seem encouraging at first. The deficit narrowed to -61.6 billion USD, much better than expected, mainly due to a steep drop in imports. It’s worth noting that the previous month’s figure was revised to be slightly less negative. This shift reflects more than just monthly changes; it shows a behavior change linked to external policy.
The increase in March imports was not happenstance. Many US importers rushed to buy goods ahead of expected tariff changes to avoid future costs when new regulations took effect. This created a temporary spike in the trade imbalance. Once this activity settled, April showed a sharp correction. This wasn’t just an organic improvement; it was a reaction to March’s spike.
Exports rose at the fastest monthly rate in over a year, increasing by 3.0%. This is a strong rebound from March’s nearly flat performance. This suggests steadier external demand or a resolution of earlier logistical delays. However, the most notable aspect of April’s data was the 16% decrease in imports, particularly in consumer goods. Items like pharmaceuticals often have fluctuating demand due to inventory levels; this drop indicates that the inflated orders from March are now subsiding.
What does this mean? While the monthly gap has narrowed, it’s important to view this within the context of strong quarterly variability. For those of us making short-term trades based on macro readings or currency pairs, the changes in April should not be seen as a fundamental shift in trade.
The overall picture for the year so far is much less positive. The trade deficit rose by 179.3 billion USD, over 65% higher than last year. This increase raises concerns about the sustainability of this trend if external demand weakens or domestic consumption remains high.
We also need to consider exchange rate changes, such as the USD/JPY. The yen strengthened slightly as signs of weakness in the US labor market emerged. Jobless claims indicated some issues in the employment cycle, which weakened the dollar slightly.
From a trading perspective, we need to focus on how changing import patterns—whether they are rushed or delayed—affect broader supply trends. The timing of these changes is crucial; misjudging the pace of adjustment could leave positions vulnerable. This is especially true when currency volatility aligns with macro releases. Short-term volatility around payroll reports or trade updates may now respond more sharply.
We should approach the revised figures with caution, remembering they reflect levels last seen in 2023. If consumer habits shift back or if further policy changes lead to another rush of imports, expectations for related asset classes will need to be adjusted. Making trading decisions based solely on outdated revisions could overlook smaller shifts in the market.
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key rates by 25 basis points in June 2025. The deposit facility rate is now at 2.00%, steady from expectations but down from 2.25% previously. The main refinancing rate is now 2.15%, which meets expectations but is reduced from 2.40%. The marginal lending facility rate has decreased to 2.50%, down from 2.65%.
Inflation is projected to align with the medium-term target of 2%, with expectations of 2.0% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026, and returning to 2.0% in 2027. Core inflation is estimated at 2.4% for this year and will settle at 1.9% for the following two years. Real GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027.
Monetary Policy Approach
The ECB is taking a data-driven approach, deciding on rates from one meeting to the next without sticking to a preset course. Recent forecasts show little change in economic outlooks, with core inflation steady. Changes in headline inflation are due to falling energy prices and a stronger euro. The decision had little effect on EUR/USD, which stayed at 1.1423.
The expected rate cut signals the ECB’s belief that price pressures are easing according to their targets. President Lagarde is cautious, preferring to review each meeting individually without committing to any specific direction. This choice highlights a desire to stay flexible rather than lock in a path that may not fit future data.
Currently, stable price forecasts suggest that policymakers think the economy can sustain growth while gradually controlling inflation. The lower inflation forecast for 2026, dropping to 1.6%, supports this view. The slow increase in GDP growth over the next two years, while modest, indicates that the rate cut is more of a fine-tuning strategy than a reaction to immediate threats.
Market Expectations and Strategy
This situation does not suggest aggressive easing in the near future. Earnings growth is still being watched, and while services inflation is decreasing, it remains important in core figures. The euro’s strength against the dollar reduces import costs, easing pressure on headline inflation. However, if this continues, it may tighten financial conditions more than desired.
Given this context, market expectations for the near term seem stable. Rate cut expectations have gradually entered the market and are mostly factored into interest rate futures. Unless new data significantly deviates from forecasts—either by showing slowed growth or a resurgence in core prices—volatility should remain low.
Expect increased sensitivity at the short end of the market rather than in the middle or long term. Rate swaps and short-term interest rate (STIR) contracts may see slight adjustments after minor surprises in inflation data, but a significant change across the curve will likely need new forward guidance or a break in the current trend. There’s room to leverage flatteners within a given range, especially for the September and December contracts.
Keeping this in mind, pursuing short-dated gamma may be less attractive compared to maintaining a neutral vega until clearer direction signals appear. The stability in EUR/USD indicates that FX volatility sellers are not facing challenges, and this situation won’t likely change unless U.S. data leads to differing policies stateside, which wouldn’t be evident through rate differentials alone.
In conclusion, the fundamental assumptions remain solid—economic conditions are stable and inflation is gradually moving toward the target. The ECB has neither increased urgency nor removed options, creating an environment that favors tactical approaches led by inflation trends and real yield shifts, particularly in short-term positioning.
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The New York Fed’s survey looked at how businesses reacted to higher tariffs. Almost one-third of manufacturers and 45% of service companies raised their prices to cover the extra costs from tariffs.
The survey was done before tariffs on Chinese goods dropped from 145% to 30%, and it showed that prices were rising quickly. More than half of manufacturers and service providers increased their prices within a month, with many doing so in just a day or a week.
A worrying trend is that companies raised prices on goods and services not directly affected by tariffs. They did this to cover costs like wages and insurance, taking advantage of the situation to boost their prices.
Recent US PMI data indicate that inflation pressures are rising. This suggests we could see higher consumer price index (CPI) numbers soon. The Fed is challenged to balance the effects of tariffs with broader inflation trends. While tariff-related price hikes might be temporary, easing measures could make price increases stick around longer, complicating the return to the 2% inflation target, which has been surpassed for five years.
The article emphasizes that price adjustments happened not only for goods affected by tariffs but across the board. Companies quickly raised retail prices in response to new import costs, with many adjusting prices in just a week. More importantly, many businesses changed prices for products unrelated to tariffs. They cited reasons like rising insurance, labor, and freight costs. The speed and consistency of these adjustments suggest a level of opportunism, taking advantage of the pricing environment.
With purchasing managers’ indexes showing ongoing price pressures, consumer inflation may rise again, even if headline numbers soften temporarily. Bringing inflation back down to below 2% will require more than just waiting. For over five years, inflation has not shown much potential for improvement without specific and targeted policy actions.
If price increases from trade policies mix with general supply-side pressures, they risk becoming permanent. Once embedded in consumer expectations and business contracts, reversing these prices becomes challenging. This is why any changes in policies, whether easing or tightening, must be carefully timed and based on new data, especially with inflation pressures coming from multiple directions.
Market participants betting on declining inflation will soon need to adjust their expectations. If last year’s price drops were due to interest rate hikes or temporary supply fixes, that won’t necessarily soften future readings. In fact, some of the disinflation trends we’ve observed might disappear, leaving policymakers and markets a different picture as new CPI data arrives.
There was hope, following Powell’s strategy, that tariff adjustments would lower input costs and reverse price spikes from earlier in the year. But this view may be too optimistic if businesses have already set expectations about what prices “should” be. Traders looking ahead must consider that the second half of the year may not show the disinflation current asset prices anticipate. If inflation remains persistent, any monetary adjustments may not align with current market rates.
We’ve observed how tariff-related price changes can affect prices beyond just consumer goods. Service inflation, especially in areas like healthcare, education, and insurance, often lags but can become stickier once set. Previous surveys noted that once companies altered their pricing strategies due to input costs, few reverted even when conditions improved.
Those betting on lower inflation will need to watch if recent price-setting actions indicate a temporary shift or a more lasting trend. Current behaviors suggest the latter. Timing is key, but it’s also important to see if temporary factors have turned into established habits. Signs like faster price adjustments or multiple rounds of changes should not be ignored.
While we have not yet seen the full impact of a rollback in Chinese tariffs on consumer prices, the quick price hikes before those adjustments highlight how reactive firms have been this cycle. This indicates that any delays in lowering prices post-reduction may not just be inertia; it might mean that high pricing has become the new normal. This realization is crucial for anyone evaluating short-term volatility and pricing stability.
Price trends influenced by tariffs and broader economic factors.
The current state of Bitcoin shows it is in a holding pattern as the market waits for important US economic data. Despite this pause, there are positive growth expectations that support Bitcoin in the bigger picture.
However, there is a risk for risk assets, including Bitcoin, if interest rate expectations change because of rising inflation concerns. Such changes could lead to a short-term drop in Bitcoin and stock prices, but the overall trend is likely still upward.
Key upcoming economic events like the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision will significantly impact market movements, especially related to inflation.
Recently, Bitcoin fell below a key trendline and is approaching the 102,127 level. This level could open up opportunities for buyers looking to push for new all-time highs, especially as it consolidates below the 106,800 resistance level.
Right now, Bitcoin is squeezed between two trendlines on the 1-hour chart. Buyers are ready to push upward, aiming to break above the downward trendline for new highs. On the other hand, sellers are looking to break below the upward trendline, adding to their positions in anticipation of price declines.
This situation reveals a moment of caution for speculative markets. After a strong rally, Bitcoin is now more sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic events, especially those linked to inflation and interest rates in the US. As economic indicators fluctuate, market reactions are likely to follow suit.
Overall, the broader trend has been upward for the past few months, backed by confidence in long-term economic recovery and a relatively stable liquidity environment. However, short-term shifts in interest rate expectations—especially if they become more aggressive due to strong inflation data—could create pressure on risk assets.
Several important events are on the horizon. The upcoming labor market report will set the tone, followed quickly by the inflation numbers and the federal rate decision. Each of these events is expected to increase volatility, and market reactions will depend on how actual figures compare to forecasts. It’s often more significant how results differ from expectations than the figures themselves.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has moved below a crucial trendline and is currently testing the 102,127 region. This level has historically seen attempts at accumulation. There is some buying activity here, but its strength is still uncertain and awaits further confirmation. Resistance remains at 106,800, preventing further price increases for now. The price has been moving within a narrower range, creating a compression pattern that may soon change.
Intraday charts suggest a significant move is coming because price compression at key levels typically leads to expansion. The direction of this movement will depend on which trendline breaks first. A breakout above the downward trendline would likely attract new buyers looking to retest previous highs. Conversely, a drop below the upward trendline would lead to more aggressive selling as traders target deeper support levels.
For those tracking derivatives markets, it’s important to carefully consider these upcoming events. Ahead of data releases, traders should use less leverage, and options may be a better strategy than full exposure. Timing is crucial when prices are tightly coiled, and significant events are approaching.
Now is not the moment for impulsively chasing breaks. Instead, wait for confirmation before making trades. Allow price movements to signal entry points rather than acting on speculation. Exercising patience in these situations can lead to clearer trades, especially in the volatile crypto derivatives market. As has been seen before, entering too early during the compression phase can lead to unnecessary losses before the price direction is clear.
Increased trading volume during any breakout, in either direction, should be a minimum requirement before making larger trades. Market responses to key events will guide the direction. Trading ahead of these events carries inherent risks, and this week in particular, emotional reactions may cloud rational decision-making without clear advantages.
Volatility is making a comeback, and each upcoming announcement tightens the tension further. As we’ve learned, the longer the tension builds, the stronger the price movement when it finally occurs.
Crude oil prices have stayed stable despite Saudi Arabia’s push for faster production increases. The kingdom wants OPEC+ to ramp up oil output to regain its market share instead of focusing solely on maintaining prices.
Initially, this news stirred the market but quickly lost impact as traders had already anticipated it. Now, the focus has shifted to oil demand, with expectations of improvement in the coming months.
Technical analysis shows that WTI crude oil has been fluctuating between a support level of 60.00 and a resistance level of 64.00 for about a month. It seems likely that this range will continue until there’s a breakout, with a possible upward breakout targeting 72.00.
Looking more closely at the 1-hour chart, we see a tighter trading range between 62.18 support and 64.00 resistance. Traders are expected to maintain this pattern until a breakout is confirmed.
This situation illustrates a market digesting supply changes while increasingly considering demand forecasts. In summary, Saudi Arabia is shifting its stance from restricting output to support prices to encouraging quicker production growth. This change naturally influences market expectations. However, the muted market response suggests that traders had already priced in these developments. Those with short-term strategies understand that when news doesn’t cause significant movement, it’s often because positioning is already set.
In trading terms, the market is currently stable within its range, both on daily and shorter intraday levels. The upper limit at 64.00 is limiting gains, with buyers cautious about pushing through until a clear catalyst appears. On the downside, support has held around 62.18, providing structure and opportunities for trades that capitalize on price reversals. The price behavior indicates indecision rather than strong bearish sentiment.
For significant directional moves to occur, trading volume must increase, breaking through current limits. If the price sustains an upward move above 64.00, especially with momentum confirmation, targeting 72.00 becomes logical. This level is based not only on projected movements but also on previous interaction areas where sellers have emerged.
It’s crucial to monitor whether the market is reacting more to supply changes or is shifting toward demand-focused evaluations. If expectations for consumption show consistent upward adjustments—particularly in mobility data or industrial drawdowns—the range might break sooner than anticipated.
Shorter timeframes, like 1-hour charts, are behaving predictably, maintaining consistent patterns within tighter boundaries. Until one side breaks with volume support, focusing on bounce-and-fade strategies is the most balanced approach. However, the longer this consolidation persists, the more energy builds for an eventual breakout.
We’re observing for any significant volume spikes at the extremes, especially around 64.00, which could signal institutional interest in short-term trends. Sustained buying as the US session opens would increase the likelihood of an upward range expansion. The upcoming weeks won’t likely bring complacency. There’s a lot happening just beneath the surface: changes in supply, shifts in consumption, and technical levels.
The interaction of these factors—along with their timing—will determine which traders successfully navigate market movements.
Germany’s construction sector saw its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) drop to 44.4 in May, down from 45.1 in April. This decrease is sharper than in previous months, even though civil engineering is beginning to show signs of recovery. Homebuilding and commercial construction are still struggling, but for the first time since 2022, companies are feeling positive about the year ahead.
Civil engineering makes up about 14% of the sector’s value and has shown some improvement. A recent government infrastructure package could help boost ongoing projects. However, residential and commercial construction are facing difficulties. Rising long-term government bond yields and input prices are hurting profits. Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates in the short term, it hasn’t had a significant impact on the sector.
Cautious Outlook for Construction Sector
The outlook remains cautious as new orders continue to decline, indicating that a recovery is not on the horizon. The improved sentiment is influenced by political changes and upcoming infrastructure plans. Confidence levels have returned to those seen in early 2022, but real growth might not happen until 2026. This slow progress could extend beyond civil engineering to other areas of construction.
The drop in Germany’s PMI to 44.4 in May signifies a further decline in overall construction activity. This index measures monthly changes and remains below the neutral mark of 50, showing that the industry is contracting. Civil engineering, which had been stagnant, is now starting to recover. This segment, which accounts for roughly one-seventh of the sector’s value, has gained support from recent government fiscal programs. Yet, other areas continue to face challenges.
Residential and commercial construction face ongoing pressure. Higher government bond yields have increased financing costs, affecting profit margins and discouraging new investments. Rising input prices have added to the financial strain. Even with the ECB lowering rates, relief has been limited. Output in weaker areas, like homebuilding, continues to decline.
New business is declining, meaning that workload pipelines aren’t being refilled. This limits short-term hiring and impacts the broader supply chain. Although sentiment has improved, tangible growth may take time. Optimism has returned for the first time in nearly two years, driven by changes in political tone and clearer commitments from Berlin toward infrastructure improvements.
Bridging The Gap Between Optimism and Output
What matters now is not just the positive expectations but whether construction orders start to reflect this optimism. For those concerned about future price changes, fixed asset investment data will be critical. If indicators for civil engineering activity keep improving, it could lead to more predictable contract pricing.
However, the rest of the sector remains cautious. While confidence has bounced back close to pre-downturn levels, significant projects may not resume until 2026. Any shifts in government priorities or ECB policies could change this trajectory. The key is to see if expectations turn into actual orders and cash flow, especially in areas beyond civil engineering.
We are closely monitoring the gap between sentiment and actual output. It’s not enough for survey-based optimism to rise. Unless this is matched by new tenders or construction starts, the sector will remain subdued, particularly in medium-sized commercial projects. Market pricing for long-term construction contracts will likely continue to be sensitive to ECB communication and shifts in the fiscal landscape.
The focus now is not on confirming a recovery but on closing the gap between hope and execution. Until tender pipelines become more substantial and capital spending resumes, risks will remain skewed to the downside. The near-term trend will be influenced by input costs, forward orders, and interest rate signals—not sentiment alone.
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Gold had a quiet week after a strong rally on Monday. Trade tensions had pushed gold prices higher, but now the market has settled down.
Overall, gold is still trending upward as real yields are expected to fall, especially with the Federal Reserve likely easing its policy. Short-term changes in expectations for rate cuts could affect gold’s price, so it’s important to keep an eye on key economic reports like the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and CPI (Consumer Price Index).
On the daily chart, gold has broken above a downward trendline, signaling potential for new highs around the 3438 level. Buyers are targeting this level, while sellers are prepared to act if it leads to a drop back to the major upward trendline.
The 4-hour chart shows a small upward trendline, indicating bullish momentum. Buyers have a favorable risk-reward setup near the trendline to aim for the 3438 level, while sellers might target the 3200 level if prices fall further.
On the 1-hour chart, there’s a support zone around the 3330 level. Recently, buyers have positioned themselves for a move towards 3438. If there’s another pullback, buyers might step in again, while sellers focus on a decline towards the 3200 mark.
Today, we’ll see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, with the NFP report coming at the end of the week.
So far, after a brief surge on Monday, gold has entered a holding pattern. That rally was partly due to geopolitical and trade concerns. Since then, the market has calmed, and traders are being cautious, waiting for clearer signals from upcoming economic data.
In simple terms, all eyes are on where real yields are headed. As the Federal Reserve is likely to ease policies further, it’s expected that inflation-adjusted rates will weaken, which typically increases the interest in gold. Traders must closely monitor this relationship—when real yields drop, gold often rises because the cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes cheaper.
Right now, everything depends on timing. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are the key factor influencing gold. We’re watching labor market and inflation figures closely because these will inform when and how the Federal Reserve acts. The NFP and CPI numbers are significant as they indicate economic strength and inflation pressure. Any surprises in these reports could quickly change gold’s direction.
Looking at the technical side: the daily chart shows gold moving past its downward trendline. This suggests that buyers are regaining control and are keenly eyeing the 3438 level. However, that price point will attract sellers too, with positions set up to catch a downturn back to a longer-term trend. This tension around 3438 creates a dynamic market.
Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals a clearer short-term picture: momentum is still leaning upward, though not very aggressively. Prices have maintained a slight upward trend, allowing buyers to find decent opportunities without taking on too much risk. Those who are patient often gain from these moves, especially if they use defined stop-losses. Conversely, sellers aiming for weakness may look to the 3200 level; targeting levels that the market has previously reacted to is key. If prices break down, those levels could become significant again.
On the 1-hour chart, we see a more tactical approach. Support near 3330 has held recently. Predictably, some buyers have stepped in, looking for prices to rise again. If prices test this support level again and hold, it may spark another rally. However, if that support breaks, sellers won’t hesitate to push towards the previous low near 3200.
Now that we have the weekly US jobless claims and the NFP report coming up, the market is focusing on how the numbers will influence policy expectations rather than just the figures themselves. Strong data may lead traders to believe rate cuts are near, potentially pushing gold higher. On the other hand, if the data suggests a longer period of tighter policy, expect some pullbacks at resistance levels.
What matters now is not just historical prices but how they react to key levels with changing macroeconomic signals. Monitoring these responses in real-time—especially after major reports—will offer clearer guidance than longer-term models. We will continue to adapt our strategies based on this understanding, balancing market structure with real-time flow as opportunities arise.
Switzerland’s unemployment rate rose to 2.9% in May, slightly higher than the expected 2.8%. This information was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on June 5, 2025.
This is the highest unemployment rate since August 2021, indicating a continued decline in the labor market compared to last year. The report was delayed from its original release time of 0545 GMT.
Unemployment Rate Increase in Switzerland
The increase of Switzerland’s unemployment rate to 2.9% in May is a clear sign of a weakening labor market. Although it’s just a slight rise above what experts expected, it shows the first real sign of decreasing job conditions this year. Generally, labor markets react slowly to economic changes, and this increase should be taken seriously. It suggests a reduced demand for hiring in industries that previously stayed strong despite challenges in Europe.
Even though the difference from forecasts is small, its significance is heightened by the timing and context. The data arrives when there’s cautious sentiment about central bank actions and slower growth in the eurozone. While it’s not a direct warning, SECO’s update suggests that sectors tied to exports or German demand might be feeling some strain. This isn’t a crisis yet, but it shifts expectations regarding domestic spending and confidence in the service sector.
For traders involved in rates, foreign exchange, or stock volatility, this indicates a slight change in expectations. A weaker job market may lower domestic inflation concerns, which could allow for decreasing yields. This might lead to a reevaluation of interest rates, especially since any movement here can have significant implications when central bank messages are unclear.
Weaker job figures could also boost demand for options in the Swiss franc, especially against currencies more affected by inflation. The Swiss franc often sees increased activity as a safe funding option when global investors become more cautious. If the job market continues to show weak results, some might reconsider how long the Swiss National Bank (SNB) can balance imported inflation against local stagnation.
Market Reactions and Implications for Traders
Traders should pay attention to how implied volatility changes in response to this news. It’s important to watch not just the direction of volatility but how the market prices risks. There may be increased positioning ahead of the next SNB decision, with adjustments in short-term rates and related financial products. This will be particularly relevant if data surprises continue to arise.
Although the delay in the report’s release is not a major issue, it raises some concern about the reliability of timing. Timeliness is crucial for accurate price discovery, and delays can lead to positioning hesitations or outdated pricing before the market adjusts. Thus, the timing of data releases, even in a stable economy like Switzerland’s, should not be overlooked.
Future releases will warrant more attention. Reactions in short-term swaps or volatility may become more intense. We will be monitoring if pricing starts to shift, impacting expected monetary policy paths. Notably, May’s figures were slightly above all forecasts submitted in Bloomberg’s survey, indicating that insights from private analysts about labor market health may have been too optimistic.
As we sort through these updates, tactical adjustments in carry trades and forward volatility might take precedence over long-term trends.
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