US API weekly crude oil stocks fell to 3.719 million in the week ending 3 April, down from 10.263 million the previous week.

The change is a decrease of 6.544 million.

We saw the weekly crude oil stock build slow down dramatically, falling from a huge 10.263 million barrel increase to a more modest 3.719 million barrel build. This sharp deceleration is a bullish signal, suggesting the supply glut may be easing faster than anticipated. The market will now be watching the official EIA report closely for confirmation of this trend.

This smaller inventory build is likely tied to refineries increasing their activity ahead of the summer driving season. U.S. refinery utilization rates have already climbed to 91.5%, a seasonal high, as they ramp up gasoline production. This increased crude consumption is a key factor supporting oil prices, which are currently holding firm above $86 per barrel for WTI.

Given this tightening picture, we should consider positioning for higher prices through call options or bull call spreads on June WTI contracts. The data also strengthens the current market backwardation, where near-term prices are higher than future prices, rewarding those holding long positions. This structure signals immediate market tightness that traders can capitalize on.

When we look back at the spring of 2025, we saw a similar seasonal pattern, but the inventory builds were more consistent and the market was less volatile. That period was defined by concerns over a slowing economy which capped price rallies. This year’s sharper inventory shift suggests a fundamentally tighter market compared to what we experienced twelve months ago.

The significant difference between the last two weekly reports could also increase short-term price volatility. This makes options strategies that benefit from price swings, such as long straddles, potentially profitable around the upcoming official inventory report. A surprise in the EIA data could trigger a significant price move in either direction.

Philippine headline inflation moved above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target in March, linked to higher transport, electricity and food costs, alongside a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP). UOB raised its 2026 inflation forecast and expects the BSP to keep its policy rate unchanged.

The BSP is expected to hold the policy rate at 4.25% at its 23 April meeting and remain on hold through 1Q27. At an off-cycle Monetary Board meeting on 26 March, the BSP said monetary policy has limited effect on supply-side inflation and will watch for second-round effects, using core inflation as a near-term guide.

UOB lifted its full-year 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5% from 3.0% previously. Other figures cited were a BSP estimate of 5.1% for 2026 and 1.7% for 2025.

The report linked the revised outlook to Middle East conflict-related disruptions, year-ago low base effects, and continued PHP weakness. It also noted government measures, including a declared national energy emergency, possible temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes, a review of airport-related charges, and diversifying oil supply sources.

Given the updated 2026 inflation forecast of 5.5%, we believe the market is mispricing the risk of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) holding rates steady. We have seen the 2-year swap rate climb to 4.65% in early April, suggesting some investors are still betting on a hike. This presents a clear opportunity to receive fixed on short-term interest rate swaps, positioning for rates to align with the BSP’s stated focus on growth.

The combination of persistently high inflation and a stationary policy rate is making the Philippine peso (PHP) less attractive, as real yields turn more negative. The peso has already slipped to 59.62 against the dollar this week, its weakest point since the fourth quarter of 2025. We therefore see value in positioning for further depreciation through USD/PHP non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) or by purchasing call options on the currency pair.

Uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict and the BSP’s policy inaction creates a volatile environment. Implied volatility on 3-month USD/PHP options has climbed to levels not seen since the public works scandal of late 2025, which saw volatility spike over 15%. This suggests that buying volatility through option straddles on USD/PHP could be a prudent strategy, profiting from a large price move in either direction.

We must also watch the government’s attempts to manage prices through non-monetary actions, like a potential suspension of fuel excise taxes. We saw a brief PHP rally in the last week of March 2026 after the national energy emergency was declared, showing how these headlines can cause sharp, temporary reversals. Any surprising success on this front could disrupt short-PHP positions and should be monitored as a key risk.

US weekly crude oil stocks, based on API data, fell to 3.719 million in the week ending 3 April. This was down from 10.263 million in the previous week.

The change represents a decrease of 6.544 million week on week. The figures refer to crude oil stock levels in the United States.

The latest API report shows a crude oil inventory build of 3.719 million barrels for the week ending April 3rd. While this is still an increase, it is significantly smaller than the massive 10.263 million barrel build we saw the previous week. This sharp deceleration in inventory growth is a potentially bullish signal, suggesting that the recent supply glut could be easing.

We will now be watching for the official EIA inventory report to confirm this trend. Current refinery utilization rates are holding steady around 88.9%, a sign that refiners are preparing for the upcoming summer driving season demand. An EIA report showing a similar or smaller build could provide a strong catalyst for WTI and Brent crude futures to move higher.

This data arrives as we enter a seasonally strong period for oil prices. Looking back to the spring of 2025, we saw finished motor gasoline demand increase by over 4% between April and June. Traders should consider positioning for a repeat of this seasonal strength, possibly through buying June call options to capture potential upside.

The geopolitical landscape also remains a critical factor, with ongoing tensions in major producing regions providing a floor for prices. This underlying risk keeps implied volatility for crude options elevated around 29%. This environment suggests that even with bullish inventory data, constructing strategies like bull call spreads could be prudent to manage costs and define risk.

From a historical perspective, the second quarter often sees the market shift focus from inventory builds to future demand. The current market setup feels similar to early 2025, when an inventory overhang was eventually absorbed by strengthening global demand. Therefore, selling cash-secured puts below the current market price could be a way to collect premium while setting a favorable entry point if a temporary dip occurs.

Philippine headline inflation moved above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target in March, linked to higher transport, electricity and food costs, as well as a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP). UOB lifted its full-year 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5% from 3.0%, compared with the BSP estimate of 5.1%, while 2025 is listed at 1.7%.

The BSP held an off-cycle Monetary Board meeting on 26 March and noted that monetary policy has limited impact on supply-side inflation. It said it will monitor possible second-round effects, with core inflation used to guide near-term policy.

UOB expects the BSP to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% at the 23 April meeting. It also projects the rate to remain at 4.25% through 1Q27.

UOB linked the higher 2026 forecast to the March inflation rise and disruptions related to the Middle East conflict. It also cited year-ago base effects and continued PHP weakness as factors that could add to price pressures.

The national government is using non-monetary steps aimed at essential food items, electricity, and public transport. Measures include a declared national energy emergency, possible temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes, a review of airport-related charges, and diversifying oil supply sources.

Given that headline inflation jumped in March, we are raising our 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5%. However, we see the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) prioritizing growth and holding its policy rate at 4.25% in its upcoming April 23 meeting. This growing gap between high inflation and a steady policy rate creates negative real yields, which should pressure the currency.

The Philippine Peso (PHP) is likely to weaken further in the coming weeks. We saw the currency struggle throughout 2025, weakening past 60 to the US dollar for the first time in over a year, and the current economic data provides little reason for a reversal. Traders should consider positions that benefit from this expected decline, such as using options or non-deliverable forwards to short the PHP against the dollar.

With the BSP signaling it will look through this supply-side inflation, a key trade involves betting on interest rate expectations. While the central bank intends to stay on hold, the market may begin pricing in the risk of future hikes if inflation continues to surprise on the upside. This tension can be traded using interest rate swaps, positioning for the forward curve to steepen as long-term rate expectations rise.

The combination of rising costs and a weaker peso will likely squeeze corporate profit margins, creating a difficult environment for local stocks. Historically, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) has underperformed during periods of sharply rising inflation, as was seen during the commodity price shocks of late 2025. Therefore, traders could look at buying put options on the index as a hedge or a direct bet on a market downturn.

Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and the effectiveness of government price controls will increase market swings. As of April 2026, oil prices have already climbed over 15% since the start of the year, directly impacting local costs. This environment is ideal for volatility-based strategies, where traders can use options like straddles to profit from large price movements in either direction without needing to predict the exact outcome.

USD/SGD weakened overnight as markets weighed hopes of de-escalation. The pair was last seen at 1.2845, with daily chart momentum easing and RSI lower.

A bearish engulfing candlestick pattern was noted, suggesting near-term downside pressure. Support is cited at 1.2810/20 (21 and 100 DMAs) and 1.2780 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November high to the 2026 low).

Technical Signals Point Lower

If the pair breaks below, the next support levels are 1.2780 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 1.2740 (50 DMA). Resistance is placed at 1.29 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 1.2940.

Ahead of the Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting, multiple policy outcomes are possible. The note points to a preference for a steeper S$NEER policy band slope.

The piece states it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team, which curates market observations from external experts and internal analysts.

We are seeing the USD/SGD pair weaken, with technical charts showing that upward momentum is running out of steam. A bearish engulfing candlestick pattern has appeared, suggesting we could see more downward pressure in the coming weeks. This signals a potential shift in market sentiment against the US dollar.

We can look back to the MAS tightening cycle in 2022 for a historical parallel, when the authority repeatedly steepened the slope to combat inflation. Each of those moves led to periods of significant and sustained Singapore dollar strength. The current economic backdrop is showing similar signs that could prompt the MAS to act decisively again.

Key Levels And Trade Implications

The key levels to watch in the immediate future are the supports at 1.2810 and 1.2780. A firm break below these levels, particularly after the MAS decision, would confirm the bearish trend. This could open the path for a move down towards the 1.2740 mark in the following weeks.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

USD/CHF gave back part of its earlier rise on Tuesday as risk appetite improved. A Reuters report said a senior Iranian official stated Tehran is reviewing positively Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, which lifted US equities.

At the time of writing, the pair was up 0.08% at 0.7978 and moving back towards its opening level. Price has struggled to stay above 0.8000, which has led to a pullback towards 0.7950.

Technical Trend Remains Up

The chart structure still shows higher highs and higher lows, keeping the uptrend in place. A move below the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.7941 would increase downside risk, with 0.7918 at the 20-day SMA and 0.7904 at the 1 April low as next levels.

If the pair breaks above 0.8000, attention turns to 0.8042, the 31 March swing high, and then 0.8100. The Relative Strength Index remains bullish, pointing to continued upward momentum.

We remember this time last year, in early April 2025, when the USD/CHF pair struggled to decisively break the 0.8000 level. Geopolitical news, like temporary ceasefire hopes, created choppy conditions despite the underlying bullish trend we were watching. That resistance around 0.8000 eventually gave way, setting the stage for the significant rally that followed over the past year.

Today, on April 8, 2026, the situation has evolved with the pair trading near 0.8850, driven by clear central bank policy divergence. The Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate again last month to 1.25%, as March inflation data came in at a subdued 0.9%. This contrasts sharply with the US Federal Reserve, which is holding firm as US inflation persists near 2.8%, making a near-term rate cut unlikely.

Trade Ideas And Key Levels

This growing interest rate differential makes holding the US dollar more attractive than the Swiss franc. We see this fundamental tailwind as the primary driver for the pair in the coming weeks. The clear policy path from both central banks suggests the uptrend has strong support.

Given this outlook, buying USD/CHF call options seems like a prudent strategy to capture further upside with defined risk. For instance, call options with a 0.8900 strike price expiring in June 2026 offer a way to participate in the trend. Recent implied volatility figures from CME Group, hovering around 7.2%, indicate that the market is not pricing in extreme price swings, making option premiums relatively reasonable.

For those with a higher conviction, taking long positions in USD/CHF futures contracts could also be considered. This allows for a more direct and leveraged play on the expectation that the pair will test the 0.9000 psychological level. We would see a failure to hold above 0.8750 as a key level to watch for a potential shift in short-term momentum.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

USD/SGD weakened overnight as markets weighed hopes of de-escalation, and it was last seen at 1.2845. Daily chart signals showed bullish momentum easing, with RSI lower.

Technical patterns included a bearish engulfing candlestick, pointing to near-term downside pressure. Support was noted at 1.2810/1.2820, linked to the 21 and 100 DMAs.

Key Support Levels

Further support levels were set at 1.2780, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the November high to the 2026 low. A break below would leave 1.2740, the 50 DMA, as the next level.

On the upside, resistance was placed at 1.29, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and at 1.2940. Attention is also on the upcoming Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting.

All policy options were described as available ahead of the decision. One possible outcome mentioned was a steeper slope for the S$NEER policy band.

The USD/SGD pair has weakened, currently trading around 1.2845, as markets grow more optimistic about geopolitical de-escalation. Technical charts are showing that the previous upward trend is losing steam. This suggests a potential shift towards a period where the Singapore dollar strengthens.

Options Trade Ideas

We are closely watching the upcoming Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meeting, with a growing belief they will steepen the S$NEER policy slope to strengthen the currency. This view is supported by recent data showing Singapore’s core inflation remained stubbornly high at 3.5% in February, keeping pressure on the central bank to act. This is a familiar pattern, as we saw similar hawkish leanings from the MAS throughout much of 2025 when inflation was a key concern.

At the same time, the US dollar itself is facing headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s recent shift to a more cautious tone has markets anticipating potential interest rate cuts later this year. This contrasts with the MAS’s likely tightening bias, creating a clear policy divergence that favors the Singapore dollar.

For derivative traders, this environment suggests considering put options on USD/SGD to profit from a potential drop. A break below the immediate support at 1.2810 could be a key trigger for such a move. The next significant targets to watch would be around the 1.2780 and 1.2740 levels.

Alternatively, selling call options with strike prices at or above the 1.2900 resistance level could be a viable strategy to collect premium. This approach benefits from the view that upward momentum is capped and the pair is unlikely to break through these higher levels. A bear call spread could also be used to define risk in this trade.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

USD/CHF gave up part of its earlier rise on Tuesday after market sentiment improved. A Reuters report said a senior Iranian official stated Tehran is reviewing positively Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, which helped lift US equities.

At the time of writing, USD/CHF was up 0.08% at 0.7978, moving back towards its opening level. The pair retreated after failing to move above 0.8000, which has acted as resistance.

Broader Trend Remains Upward

The broader trend remains upward, with higher highs and higher lows still in place. However, a drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.7941 could weaken the current move, with 0.7918 (20-day SMA) and 0.7904 (April 1 low) as the next levels.

If the pair climbs above 0.8000, the next targets are 0.8042 (March 31 swing high) and 0.8100. The Relative Strength Index remains bullish, pointing to continued buying pressure.

We are seeing the US Dollar face a significant test against the Swiss Franc, pushing towards the 0.9200 resistance level. This comes as markets are digesting recent economic data that paints a diverging picture for the two economies. Many traders are now positioning for a potential breakout in the coming weeks.

The case for a stronger dollar has been building, with the latest U.S. jobs report from March 2026 showing a robust addition of 215,000 jobs. Furthermore, recent U.S. inflation data has remained persistent, coming in at 3.4%, which keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates higher for longer. This policy divergence is a primary driver for traders buying USD/CHF call options with strike prices above 0.9200.

On the other side, the Swiss National Bank has already begun its easing cycle, cutting its key interest rate to 1.50% in March 2026 as Swiss inflation cooled to just 1.2%. This makes holding the Swiss Franc less attractive compared to the higher-yielding US Dollar. We see this creating a clear path of least resistance to the upside for the currency pair.

Options Strategy And Key Levels

This situation feels familiar, as we remember how the pair struggled with the 0.8000 level back in April 2025 before eventually breaking higher later that year. That historical resistance took several attempts to clear before the uptrend resumed with force. A similar pattern could be forming now, suggesting patience may be rewarded.

For derivative traders, this suggests a strategy of buying near-term call options to capitalize on a breakout above 0.9200. However, considering the risk of a rejection at this level, purchasing put options with a strike near the 50-day moving average of 0.9110 could serve as a valuable hedge. This provides protection should the resistance prove too strong in the short term.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Gold rose 0.63% on Tuesday as oil eased from day highs amid reports of stalled US-Iran talks, which Iranian media denied. Attention is on Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Hormuz Strait at 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time, with uncertainty over a deal before any renewed US strikes.

XAU/USD traded at $4,678 after rebounding from $4,607, supported by a softer US Dollar. The US Dollar Index fell 0.17% to 99.82.

Middle East Signals Remain Conflicted

Reports on the Middle East remained mixed, with the Tehran Times rejecting claims that diplomacy was cut off, while the Wall Street Journal said both sides are holding firm. Axios reported a ceasefire looked unlikely despite progress in the past 24 hours, and CNN said Israel’s military is on standby for possible strikes.

Fed officials spoke, including Austan Goolsbee and John Williams, with warnings about central bank independence and energy-driven inflation. Williams said headline inflation could stay elevated into mid-year and reach about 2.75% annually, while policy was described as appropriate.

US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February versus a 0.5% expected drop, while core goods rose 0.8% month-on-month. New York Fed survey expectations showed one-year inflation at 3.4%, with longer-term expectations steady.

Markets are not pricing Fed easing in 2026, with rates seen unchanged all year, and focus is on Fed speeches, FOMC minutes, growth, jobless claims, and inflation. Technically, support is the 100-day SMA at $4,644 and resistance the 20-day SMA at $4,731, with levels at $4,700, $4,600, $4,553, $4,500, and the 50-day SMA at $4,937.

Gold Holds Firm On Inflation Backdrop

We see gold is holding firm, a situation reminiscent of this time in 2025 when tensions in the Hormuz Strait provided a strong bid for the metal. Today, the driver is less about an immediate geopolitical flare-up and more about persistent inflation, which keeps haven demand alive. While oil prices have stabilized, the underlying economic uncertainty is providing a solid floor for bullion.

With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) currently low, trading near 14.5, implied volatility in gold options is not as expensive as it was during the military posturing we saw in 2025. This presents an opportunity for traders to consider buying call options to position for a potential breakout above recent highs. The lower premium means less capital is at risk for a move driven by upcoming inflation data.

Last year’s commentary from Fed officials proved prescient, as money markets were correct to price in no rate cuts for the first half of 2026. The latest CPI data, released in March 2026, showed headline inflation remains sticky at 3.2%, preventing the Fed from easing policy. This differs from the 2.75% energy-driven inflation projection from 2025, as today’s inflation is more broad-based.

Economic data is also painting a different picture than the contracting durable goods orders we analyzed in February 2025. The most recent report for February 2026 showed a surprising 1.4% increase, suggesting some sectors of the economy remain robust. This economic resilience, combined with inflation, reinforces the case for gold as a portfolio diversifier rather than just a pure safe-haven asset.

From a technical standpoint, the key support level we are watching has shifted from the $4,600 area of 2025 to a new, stronger base around $4,820. In the coming weeks, we should use derivatives to protect long positions while watching for a challenge of the $4,950 resistance level. A sustained move above this could attract fresh momentum, similar to how the market reacted to geopolitical headlines a year ago.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Vietnam’s GDP rose 7.8% year-on-year in Q1, above the Bloomberg consensus of 7.6% but below the government’s 10% target for 2026. This compares with 8.5% growth in Q4 2025.

Trade data showed faster growth in March, with exports up 20.1% year-on-year versus a 16.5% consensus and 5.7% in February. Imports also rose, linked to external demand and firms building inventories.

Inflation Signals Policy Pressure

Inflation increased, with March CPI up 4.7% year-on-year versus a 4.0% consensus and 3.4% in February. This was above the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4.5% target.

The exchange rate was steady, with USD/VND flat at about 26,337. The central bank kept a stable fixing to reduce volatility.

The article notes it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.

We’re seeing robust economic activity with Q1 GDP at 7.8%, but the critical number for us is the 4.7% inflation print for March. This figure has pushed past the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) 4.5% target, putting pressure on them to respond. This shifts the focus from growth to potential monetary tightening in the weeks ahead.

Trade Ideas And Positioning

The SBV’s primary tool to combat this inflation is raising its policy rate, a move we’ve seen them make before when price pressures mounted back in late 2024. A rate hike would likely end the recent period of stability in the USD/VND, which has been held steady around 26,337. This creates a clear opportunity for traders anticipating a policy shift.

Given this outlook, we should consider positioning through FX derivatives, specifically options on the USD/VND pair. Looking back, similar inflation surprises in other Southeast Asian markets in 2025 led to significant currency adjustments within a single quarter. Any signal of a rate hike could cause a sharp downward move in USD/VND, making put options particularly attractive.

Beyond currency, there’s a direct play on interest rates through the swaps market. We can look at entering interest rate swaps where we pay a fixed rate and receive a floating rate. This position would profit directly if the SBV follows through with a rate hike to cool the 4.7% inflation, a response similar to what we saw from the Bank of Thailand last year.

The strong export growth of over 20% suggests the economy can likely absorb a modest rate increase without derailing activity. Therefore, the probability of the SBV acting is higher than it has been in recent quarters. We must monitor their next policy meeting minutes for any change in tone.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.