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Iran’s speaker Qalibaf denounces Trump’s threats towards energy and transport sites, blaming Netanyahu’s misleading influence

Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, criticised US President Donald Trump over reported threats to target energy and transport infrastructure, Reuters said on Monday. Qalibaf said Trump was being misled by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a post on X.

Market Reaction And Recent Context

At the time of press, WTI crude was down 0.50% on the day at $103.32. We remember the heated warnings from last year, when threats against energy infrastructure were common and oil was trading well above $100 a barrel. Those tensions created a significant risk premium that was baked into prices. This past volatility serves as a critical reminder of how quickly the market can react to geopolitical rhetoric in the Middle East. As of today, the situation appears more subdued, with WTI crude oil trading around $85.50 per barrel. This lower price reflects an easing of direct conflict, but the underlying supply situation remains tight. OPEC+ confirmed last month that it will extend its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the middle of the year, showing that producers are still concerned about price stability. For derivative traders, the key indicator is the recent rise in implied volatility. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has crept up to 34 from a low of 27 in February, indicating that the options market is beginning to price in a greater chance of a sharp move. This means the cost of insurance, through both puts and calls, is getting more expensive.

Positioning For Tail Risk

Given this backdrop, we believe traders should consider strategies that protect against a sudden upside shock. Any disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows, would send prices sharply higher. Purchasing out-of-the-money call options for the summer months could provide a cost-effective way to hedge against this risk. We have seen this play out before, such as during the 2019 attacks on Saudi facilities, when WTI futures gapped up nearly 15% overnight. While the market is currently calm on the surface, the combination of tight supply and lingering political tension creates a fragile environment. The market is under-appreciating the risk of a rapid return to the prices we saw last year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Investors await Iran’s reply to Trump’s ultimatum, while silver slips 0.7%, hovering near $72.50

Silver (XAG/USD) was down 0.7% near $72.50 in late Asian trade on Monday, moving in a tight range. Price action stayed subdued ahead of Iran’s response to an ultimatum from US President Donald Trump. Trump said the US would attack Iranian power plants and bridges if Iran does not free the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET. Iran’s foreign ministry said it will not reopen the passage and warned it would respond by targeting similar infrastructure owned by, or linked to, the US. Axios, cited by Bloomberg, reported talks between the US and Iran about a 45-day ceasefire. Such an outcome would reduce geopolitical risk, which can lessen demand for safe-haven metals. War-related inflation expectations and tighter central bank policy guidance have also weighed on non-yielding assets such as silver. Markets are also watching the US Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March meeting, due on Wednesday. Technically, silver traded near $72.50 with a mildly bearish bias below the 20-day EMA. Resistance sits near $75.20, with support around $70.00, then $66.70 and $61.00; RSI was 43. The immediate focus is the extreme uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz deadline tomorrow. We see conflicting signals between a direct military threat and back-channel talks of a ceasefire, creating a binary event for silver prices. This environment suggests that using options to define risk, rather than trading spot futures, is the prudent approach for the next 48 hours. Traders anticipating a de-escalation or a ceasefire could consider buying puts with strikes below the $70.00 support level. Conversely, those positioning for a conflict could look at buying calls, though high implied volatility will make them expensive. A more cost-effective strategy for a bullish move would be a call spread, such as buying a $75.00 call and selling an $80.00 call to cap costs. We saw a similar dynamic play out during the flare-ups of 2025, where geopolitical events caused sharp, but often short-lived, rallies in precious metals. Looking back, we saw the Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) spike over 40% in a single week during the October 2025 tensions, only to retreat once the market’s focus returned to central bank policy. The current situation feels very similar, where the initial reaction will be sharp before fundamentals take over again. Once the geopolitical noise settles, attention will shift to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Given the ongoing war-fueled inflation, any hints of a more hawkish Fed will likely pressure non-yielding silver lower. We need to watch for language suggesting that rates will remain higher for longer to combat the persistent inflation, which has been running above 4.5% for the last two quarters. From a technical standpoint, the $75.20 level is the key line to watch for any change in the bearish trend. A failure to break above it could embolden traders to sell call options with strikes around that level. Should silver prices fall and test the $70.00 support area, it may present an opportunity to sell cash-secured puts for those willing to get long at a lower price.

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XAG/USD hovers near $72.50 after a 0.7% drop, as investors await Iran’s response to Trump’s ultimatum

Silver (XAG/USD) was 0.7% lower near $72.50 in late Asian trade on Monday, and is moving in a tight range. The market is waiting for Iran’s response to a US ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said the US would attack Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET. Iran’s foreign ministry indicated it will not reopen the waterway and warned of retaliatory action against similar US-owned or related infrastructure.

Ceasefire Talks And Market Risk

Axios, cited by Bloomberg, reported that the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire. Such a move could reduce geopolitical risk and affect safe-haven demand. Easing tensions can reduce demand for precious metals, but higher inflation projections linked to the war may lead to tighter central bank policy. That environment can pressure non-yielding assets such as silver. This week, attention turns to the US Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March meeting, due on Wednesday. XAG/USD is near $72.50, with resistance near the 20-day EMA at $75.20 and support around $70.00, then $66.70 and $61.00. The RSI is at 43, and the price remains below the 20-day EMA. The story notes an AI-assisted technical section and a correction to the deadline time.

Looking Back At Early 2025

We are looking back at the tense situation in early 2025 when silver was trading near $72.50. The market was completely frozen by the US ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This period of extreme uncertainty shows how quickly geopolitical risk can become the single most important factor for precious metals. The feared escalation never happened, as the rumored 45-day ceasefire eventually paved the way for a broader de-escalation of the conflict. As the threat of war faded, so did the safe-haven demand for silver. This confirms the classic theory that easing global tensions is bearish for precious metals, a lesson we saw play out through the rest of 2025. The other major headwind for silver was the fight against inflation, which kept central banks hawkish. We can see from recent data that after US inflation peaked near 5% late last year, the Consumer Price Index has only just cooled to 3.8% as of March 2026. This persistent inflation is why the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates elevated, making non-yielding silver a less attractive asset to hold. Today, with silver trading near $45, those support levels from 2025 around $70.00 and $66.70 are now massive long-term resistance zones. For derivative traders, this means any strong rally toward those prices should be viewed as a selling opportunity. The entire market structure has shifted downwards since the resolution of that crisis. Implied volatility in silver options was extremely high during the 2025 standoff, making it expensive to place bets. In the coming weeks, with volatility now much lower, traders can use strategies like buying put options more affordably to position for further weakness. This offers a defined-risk way to act on the view that sticky inflation and high rates will continue to weigh on the price. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD recovers above 0.5700 after testing 0.5680 lows, ending two-day slide amid ceasefire talks weakening USD

NZD/USD rebounded from the 0.5680 area, a four-month low retested in Asia on Monday, ending a two-day decline. It traded just above 0.5700, up nearly 0.25% on the day, with limited upside. Bloomberg, citing Axios, said the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This reduced demand for the US dollar and supported NZD/USD.

Geopolitical Risk Provides Brief Relief

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, could be targeted if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Iran said transit could resume if part of the revenue is used to compensate Iran for war-related damages, and the chance of a deal within 48 hours was described as low. Energy price rises tied to the conflict have raised inflation concerns and expectations of tighter central bank policy. Traders have increased the probability of a US Federal Reserve rate rise in 2026, which could support the US dollar and limit NZD/USD gains. Market attention turns to the US ISM Services PMI later in North American trading. Liquidity is thinner due to the Easter Monday holiday in many markets. We are seeing the NZD/USD find temporary support from ceasefire talks, but this bounce from the 0.5700 level looks fragile. The primary conflict for traders is this short-term geopolitical relief versus the longer-term trend of US dollar strength. Therefore, any long positions on the Kiwi should be viewed with extreme caution in the coming weeks. This clash between risk sentiment and monetary policy is creating significant uncertainty, which is ideal for options traders. The heightened potential for a sharp move suggests implied volatility on NZD/USD options is likely to increase. A good strategy could involve buying straddles to profit from a large price swing, regardless of the ultimate direction.

Options And Positioning Implications

The fundamental story will likely reassert itself, and that story favors the US dollar. With US CPI data proving sticky above 3% for the last quarter, the market is now pricing in a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike by the third quarter of 2026. This hawkish Fed outlook should act as a strong headwind for any significant NZD/USD rally. Furthermore, we see a growing policy divergence that weighs on the pair. While the Fed is re-evaluating the need for higher rates, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already signaled a peak in its cash rate, which has held at 5.5% for several months. This difference in central bank guidance clearly supports a stronger US dollar over the New Zealand dollar. For traders looking at positioning, the four-month low around 0.5680 is now the key support level to watch. We believe selling out-of-the-money call options with strike prices near the 0.5850 resistance level could be an effective strategy. This approach would benefit from either a decline in the pair or a period of range-bound trading. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, we saw how resilient dollar demand was in the face of temporary geopolitical scares. The underlying strength driven by US economic outperformance and interest rate differentials consistently won out. The current situation appears to be another instance where selling into these risk-driven rallies will likely prove to be the correct long-term play. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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NZD/USD climbs above 0.5700 after dipping to 0.5680, as ceasefire talks dampen US dollar demand

NZD/USD rebounded after retesting a four-month low near 0.5680 in Asian trading on Monday. The pair moved back above 0.5700, up nearly 0.25% on the day, after a two-day decline. A Bloomberg report citing Axios said the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire. This reduced demand for the US Dollar and supported NZD/USD, though geopolitical risk remains.

Geopolitical Risk And The Dollar

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, could be destroyed if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Iran said transit could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages, and a deal within the next 48 hours was described as unlikely. Markets are also focused on higher energy prices and the risk of renewed inflation pressures. Traders are pricing a higher probability of a Federal Reserve rate rise in 2026, which could support the US Dollar and limit NZD/USD gains. Attention turns to the US ISM Services PMI later in the North American session. Liquidity is thin due to the Easter Monday holiday in many markets. We are seeing the NZD/USD get a small bounce from its four-month low, pushing past the 0.5700 mark. This is happening because talk of a ceasefire between the US and Iran is temporarily weakening the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal. This reflects a slight shift back into riskier assets.

Rates Volatility And Positioning

This relief rally feels fragile, as the chances of a deal in the next 48 hours are low and the geopolitical risks remain very real. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint, with the US Energy Information Administration noting that about 21% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through it. This underlying tension is keeping oil prices volatile and markets on edge. We are also watching the US Federal Reserve, as the conflict-driven surge in energy prices is stoking inflation fears. Based on current futures data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in a 65% probability of an interest rate hike by the July meeting. This potential for higher US rates creates a strong headwind for any significant NZD/USD recovery. Given this uncertainty, implied volatility on NZD/USD options has climbed, with one-month volatility now sitting around 12%, up from an average of 9% last quarter. This suggests traders should consider strategies that can profit from sharp price swings, such as buying straddles or strangles. Selling options premium right now is a high-risk play without a firm directional view. We saw a similar pattern last year when a geopolitical flare-up in mid-2025 caused the pair to fall from 0.6100 to below 0.5850 before it found a floor. That episode serves as a reminder that these moves can be sudden, making protective puts or other long-dated options a prudent way to hedge. The key difference now is the diverging policy between a hawkish Fed and a more cautious Reserve Bank of New Zealand. For now, the 0.5700 level is a battleground, but the broader trend for the pair remains weak. Any definitive news on the ceasefire could trigger a sharp rally, but we would view that as an opportunity to reassess bearish positions at better levels. We should monitor the US ISM Services PMI later today for any fresh clues on the US economy’s strength. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Amid US–Iran ceasefire hopes, the Canadian Dollar firms, pushing USD/CAD down near 1.3940 in early Europe

USD/CAD fell to about 1.3940 in early European trade on Monday as the US dollar weakened against the Canadian dollar. The move followed reports that the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a 45-day ceasefire. Bloomberg said the US and Iran are exploring a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end to fighting. President Donald Trump had set a deadline for Iran to reopen the strait and warned of strikes on infrastructure if it did not comply.

Ceasefire Talks Shift Market Sentiment

Trump then extended the deadline by 20 hours to Tuesday at 8:00 pm EST (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Reduced US-Iran tensions can lower demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate rise offered some support to the dollar after stronger US jobs data. The US added 178,000 jobs in March, after a revised 133,000 decline in February (from -92,000), versus a 60,000 gain expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, partly due to a drop in labour force participation. Oil prices moved lower as traders waited for more news on US-Iran talks, which can weigh on the oil-linked Canadian dollar. We are seeing a similar dynamic to what we observed back in 2025, when geopolitical de-escalation between the US and Iran temporarily weakened the US dollar. The key difference today is the underlying economic strength supporting the greenback. This creates a complex picture for USD/CAD, where different factors are pulling the pair in opposite directions.

Fed Policy And Canada Outlook Diverge

Currently, any positive news regarding diplomatic talks in the South China Sea is causing short-term drops in the USD, as its safe-haven appeal diminishes. However, these dips have been short-lived and viewed as buying opportunities by many in the market. This pattern mirrors the temporary USD weakness we saw during the US-Iran ceasefire discussions in 2025. The Federal Reserve’s stance is providing a strong floor for the US dollar, a factor that was also present a year ago. Looking at the data, the most recent US Nonfarm Payrolls for March 2026 added a robust 215,000 jobs, and last month’s CPI report showed core inflation is still elevated at 3.1%. These figures keep the pressure on the Fed to hold interest rates higher for longer, which is fundamentally bullish for the USD. In contrast, the Canadian economy is showing signs of cooling, with its latest jobs report adding a modest 15,000 positions and inflation easing to 2.4%. This growing policy divergence between a hawkish Fed and a more neutral Bank of Canada suggests the path of least resistance for USD/CAD is upward over the medium term. Historically, we saw a similar divergence in the 2014-2016 period, which led to a sustained rally in the currency pair. The price of crude oil, a critical component for the Canadian dollar’s value, is another variable to watch closely. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently trading around $86 a barrel, providing some stability for the CAD. If geopolitical tensions ease further and oil prices were to fall back towards the low $80s, it would add significant weakening pressure on the Canadian dollar. For traders, this suggests that selling USD/CAD on dips caused by geopolitical headlines may be a risky strategy. Instead, using options to play the expected volatility could be more prudent, as the strong underlying US economic data is likely to reassert its influence. The conflicting signals between short-term geopolitical news and longer-term economic fundamentals will likely keep the pair highly active. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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After two days’ gains, the US Dollar Index eases near 100.10, holding above 100.00, nine-day EMA

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly lower after two days of gains, trading near 100.10 during Asian hours on Monday. It measures the US Dollar against six major currencies. On the daily chart, DXY is moving within an ascending channel pattern. It remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and both EMAs are trending upwards.

Technical Positioning And Trend

The latest pullback from last week’s peak has been limited. The short-term average is still above the medium-term line. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 58. This stays in positive territory and is not in overbought conditions. On the upside, DXY may test the 10-month high of 100.64 set on 31 March. A further move could bring the upper channel area near 102.40 into view. Support is at the nine-day EMA near 99.95, then the lower channel boundary around 99.70. If price breaks below the channel, it could test the 50-day EMA at 99.02.

Shifting Macro Backdrop And Strategy

The technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool. Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw a bullish technical setup for the US Dollar Index when it was trading around 100.10. The ascending channel pattern and positive moving averages suggested persistent buying interest. That analysis pointed towards a potential move to a high of 102.40. Today, the environment has changed, with the DXY trading around 104.20 after a prolonged rally. Recent data, however, suggests a potential turning point as the March 2026 jobs report showed weaker-than-expected growth of 175,000 jobs. Additionally, the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the Consumer Price Index has cooled to 2.8% year-over-year, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve. This shift in economic data has led the market to price in a higher probability of interest rate cuts later this year. We see this reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool, which now indicates expectations for at least two rate cuts before year-end. This is a significant change from the hawkish stance that propelled the dollar for much of the past year. Given this fundamental shift, we should consider strategies that hedge against or profit from a potential decline in the dollar. Buying put options on the DXY or on dollar-centric ETFs like UUP provides a defined-risk way to position for a downward move. The increase in market uncertainty has pushed implied volatility slightly higher, making these options more sensitive. For those with a more neutral view, selling out-of-the-money call credit spreads on DXY futures could be a strategy to collect premium. This approach benefits if the dollar trades sideways or moves lower in the coming weeks. We must now watch the 103.50 level as a key support, a break of which could confirm a change in the long-term uptrend we saw developing back in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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FXStreet data indicates Saudi Arabian gold prices declined, with gold falling according to compiled figures on Monday

Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Monday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at SAR 562.42 per gram, down from SAR 564.70 on Friday. Gold also dropped by tola, reaching SAR 6,559.96 from SAR 6,586.54 on Friday. Other listed prices were SAR 5,624.20 for 10 grams and SAR 17,493.16 per troy ounce.

Saudi Gold Prices Snapshot

FXStreet converts international prices into SAR using the USD/SAR rate and local units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may vary slightly. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. They added 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council, the highest annual total since records began. Gold often moves opposite to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move against risk assets such as shares. Price changes can be linked to geopolitics, recession fears, interest rates, and shifts in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). While a minor dip in gold prices was noted on Monday, this appears to be short-term noise rather than a change in the underlying trend. We see this as a temporary consolidation after the strong performance in the first quarter of 2026. This brief pullback does not change our positive outlook for the coming weeks.

Key Drivers To Watch

The main factor to watch is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s shifting tone on interest rates. After a year of holding rates firm throughout 2025, inflation has cooled, with the latest CPI figures from March 2026 coming in at 2.8%. This has fueled market expectations for at least one rate cut before the end of the year, which is typically bullish for a non-yielding asset like gold. This sentiment is already weakening the US Dollar, which has an inverse relationship with gold. The Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from its 2025 highs of around 107 to trade near 101 this past week. As we saw during the dollar’s decline in late 2024, a weaker greenback makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers and enhances its appeal as a store of value. Underpinning this entire market is the relentless purchasing by central banks. Following the record-breaking additions we saw in 2022 and 2023, central banks once again added over 1,000 tonnes to their reserves in 2025. Recent data from the World Gold Council confirms this trend has continued into the first quarter of this year, providing a strong and consistent floor for prices. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling equities market are also providing support for gold’s safe-haven status. We believe any dips, like the one seen Monday, present an opportunity for traders to add to long positions. Looking at call options or long futures contracts targeting the highs we saw in late February 2026 seems like a prudent strategy over the next few weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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During Asian trading, the DXY edges down near 100.10, remaining above 100.00 and its nine-day EMA

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, edged lower after two days of gains and traded near 100.10 during Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart shows consolidation inside an ascending channel. The index remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with both averages rising. The pullback from last week’s peak has been limited. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 58 and remains below overbought levels. This points to ongoing upward pressure without extreme conditions. On the upside, the DXY may retest the 10-month high of 100.64 set on 31 March. A further rise could move towards the upper channel boundary near 102.40. On the downside, support is seen at the nine-day EMA near 99.95 and then the lower channel boundary around 99.70. A break below the channel could bring the 50-day EMA at 99.02 into view. A separate performance table compares the US dollar’s percentage moves versus major currencies today. It shows the US dollar was weakest against the New Zealand dollar, using a heat map of pairwise changes. Looking back at the analysis from this time in 2025, we saw the US Dollar Index consolidating around 100.10 with a mild bullish bias. That uptrend signal proved correct, as the index is now trading significantly higher near 105.50 as of April 6, 2026. This long-term strength validates the ascending channel pattern we were tracking last year. The dollar’s ongoing momentum is now fueled by fundamental economic data, not just technical patterns. The latest US Consumer Price Index report for March 2026 showed inflation was stickier than expected at 3.1%, pressuring the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish outlook. This economic reality continues to make the dollar more attractive than other major currencies. For the coming weeks, this environment suggests that buying call options on the US Dollar Index is a viable strategy. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that speculative net long positions on the dollar have increased for the third straight week. This indicates that other large traders are also positioning for further dollar strength. Traders could consider call options with strike prices around 106.00 or 106.50 expiring in May or June 2026. This approach allows for participation in the expected upward move while defining maximum risk to the premium paid. It capitalizes on the view that the index will challenge its recent highs in the near future. The key support levels we monitored in 2025 are no longer relevant given the significant price appreciation. Instead, we should now watch the 50-day moving average, currently around 104.20, as the new critical support zone. A break below this level would signal a potential loss of momentum and would be a trigger to reassess bullish positions.

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FXStreet data shows gold prices in Saudi Arabia declined, with figures indicating a fall in value

Gold prices in Saudi Arabia fell on Monday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at SAR 562.42 per gram, down from SAR 564.70 on Friday. The price per tola dropped to SAR 6,559.96 from SAR 6,586.54 on Friday. Other listed prices were SAR 5,624.20 for 10 grams and SAR 17,493.16 per troy ounce. FXStreet calculates Saudi gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/SAR rate and local units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, and local prices may vary slightly. Central banks are the largest holders of gold, according to the text. Data from the World Gold Council says central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase since records began. The text says gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets. It adds that geopolitical events, recession fears, and interest rates can affect prices, and that gold is priced in US dollars (XAU/USD). Despite the minor dip in gold prices to 562.42 SAR per gram, we see this as a potential buying opportunity. The broader market environment is becoming increasingly favorable for the precious metal. We should look past this daily fluctuation and focus on the larger macroeconomic trends taking shape. The latest US inflation report from last week, which showed the Consumer Price Index for March 2026 at a stubborn 3.1%, is key. This has shifted market expectations, with many now anticipating the Federal Reserve will be forced to consider rate cuts by the third quarter to stimulate a slowing economy. As a yield-less asset, gold tends to perform well when interest rates fall. This outlook is putting pressure on the US Dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) recently falling below the 102 level for the first time in months. We have seen this inverse relationship play out historically, such as during the rate-cutting cycle of 2019 when a weaker dollar helped push gold prices higher. A continued slide in the dollar should provide a significant tailwind for gold priced in other currencies. Geopolitical instability is also contributing to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Heightened tensions in the South China Sea have pushed the VIX, a measure of market volatility, up over 20 in recent trading sessions. In times of uncertainty, capital often flows from riskier assets like stocks into the perceived safety of gold. Furthermore, demand from central banks continues to provide a strong floor for the price. Following the record-breaking purchases we saw in 2022 and 2023, the World Gold Council’s data for the first quarter of 2026 showed central banks globally added another 245 tonnes to their reserves. This persistent buying, especially from emerging market banks, signals strong institutional confidence in gold as a reserve asset. For derivative traders, this environment suggests setting up bullish positions in the coming weeks. We should consider buying call options or establishing long positions in gold futures, looking at the June and July 2026 contracts. The current price dip could serve as an attractive entry point before the next potential leg up.

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