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DXY hovers around 100.75 as OCBC analysts note decline from lower UST yields
The USD has fallen, which matches a drop in UST yields. The DXY was at 100.75. Recent US data showed weak retail sales, the largest decline in PPI in five years, and lower industrial production and manufacturing reports.
Now, all eyes are on upcoming data, including import/export price indexes, housing starts, building permits, and Michigan sentiment. If these reports continue to show weak numbers, the USD could be under even more pressure. The bullish momentum seems to be fading as RSI levels drop, indicating a slight risk of decline.
Oil traders stay alert for potential U.S. sanctions on Russia amid geopolitical tensions.
Oil traders should be aware of potential new U.S. sanctions against Russia following President Vladimir Putin’s absence from peace talks with Ukraine. There are talks about stricter sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas refining sectors. Senator Lindsey Graham suggested these could also affect countries buying Russian energy products.
Currently, no sanctions are in place, but the threat could lead to unstable oil prices. Historically, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports have decreased global supply and driven oil prices up, impacting futures like WTI and Brent. On the other hand, assets tied to Russia, such as the ruble, may fall in value.
Traders need to keep an eye on U.S. legislative updates to understand the likelihood of sanctions. They should also watch oil price movements, especially in WTI and Brent futures, as potential supply issues may arise. Additionally, observing the ruble’s behavior could present forex traders with chances for speculation and hedging.
As the political situation changes, it’s crucial for traders to stay informed about announcements from Washington and Moscow. This knowledge can significantly influence trading strategies and market perspectives.
The article highlights a developing situation with potential new U.S. measures against Russia’s energy sector due to recent diplomatic failures. Putin’s absence from peace talks with Ukraine signals a reluctance to de-escalate, prompting some U.S. lawmakers, including Graham, to propose stronger sanctions. These could not only target Russia’s refining industry but also countries still buying its oil and gas.
This situation clearly signals that supply risks are resurfacing in the commodities markets. Previous sanctions have led to predictable outcomes: a drop in Russian output, tighter global supply, and higher oil prices. Both WTI and Brent often react quickly to such news, sometimes even faster than they respond to inventory data or seasonal changes.
Therefore, it’s essential to look beyond just the charts. If Washington is planning new actions, early hints will come from committee meetings, media leaks, or government announcements. Monitoring these closely is important. Policymakers who are outspoken about Russian measures usually signal market changes at least a few sessions in advance.
During these times, oil futures can be highly volatile. Short-term trades are at risk if they aren’t prepared for sudden market shifts. Traders dealing with Brent and WTI contracts should carefully consider their stop loss levels and be aware of potential risks over the weekend. In previous instances when sanctions were building up, low trading volumes late in the week have caused price spikes. This creates opportunities for quick market movements, and options trades with short expiry should be hedged or adjusted before Thursday’s market close.
In addition to oil, the ruble’s decline could offer clear forex trading opportunities this month. Discussions about sanctions have historically led to a depreciation of the Russian currency as offshore liquidity decreases and the demand for currency conversion tightens. This provides opportunities for short-term FX trades, particularly when spreads are tight. We avoid pairs that lack fast execution or are subject to unpredictable central bank interventions.
Considering that these new sanctions, if they happen, might impact importers as well, we could see shifts in energy trade flows. Therefore, we are monitoring shipping route data and vessel traffic near major export hubs. While this might seem tedious, it’s crucial. Historically, when refiners change regional inputs, crude price differentials can either tighten or widen based on available substitutes, making specific calendar spreads more active, especially in Brent markets.
Lastly, we should anticipate a potential economic response from Moscow, perhaps even a preemptive one. Adjustments in fuel export rules or changes to domestic subsidies could distort forward price curves. This underscores the need for discipline and caution in our trading approach. It’s better to maintain moderate trade sizes and reassess strategies weekly instead of chasing after immediate price movements.
ING suggests the Euro stays steady at 1.12, showing potential for growth despite small revisions.
The Euro was not significantly affected by local news, with first-quarter growth adjusted down from 0.4% to 0.3%. However, industrial production data for March was stronger than expected.
Market experts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates twice this year. ECB officials generally support this outlook, stating that U.S. tariffs are unlikely to increase inflation in the eurozone.
Euro Short-Term Targets
The EUR/USD is predicted to stay steady around 1.120 in the short term, with a chance to rise to 1.130. Current market positions show a target of 1.12 for the next month and 1.13 by the end of June. Overall, the euro has responded quietly to domestic data, even with a slight downward adjustment in growth from January to March. The new figure is 0.3%, showing modest progress in the euro area economy. At the same time, March’s surprisingly strong industrial production suggests that manufacturing, often slower to react, might be in better shape than the headlines indicate. The ECB has maintained a steady approach. With members mostly agreeing that two rate cuts are possible this year, interest rate expectations remain stable. There appears to be a consensus between market pricing and the ECB’s messaging. This is reassuring, especially since concerns over inflation from U.S. tariffs seem minimal. This shared view reduces the risk of unexpected announcements from the central bank. Thus, the euro remains stable against the dollar. The 1.120 level is strong in the short term, and we might see it drift upward toward 1.130 by late June. Options data and broader market trends support this slight increase, although it likely won’t change the overall trend—it’s simply a minor adjustment in a calm economic environment.Trading Strategies and Considerations
For those trading short-term derivatives or exposure related to EUR/USD, this consolidation phase creates clear ranges and repeatable patterns. However, timing entry is critical, particularly if ECB officials clarify their positions in speeches or if data comes in significantly above or below forecasts. Keep an eye on the ECB’s June meeting, especially if new data focuses on inflation or reduces growth estimates. Since ECB officials downplay the inflation effects of foreign trade, any sudden changes in expectations will likely be short-lived unless caused by major external factors. Overall, volatility in currency markets is low, which influences pricing in shorter-term options. Strategies that benefit from low implied volatility may be effective, but we need to closely watch pricing changes throughout June. There are still factors related to U.S. data that may create opportunities during active trading hours. Flexibility is crucial in low-momentum markets. We should avoid overly committing to one side before major events, especially when policy signals remain stable. As officials like Schnabel and Panetta downplay inflation concerns, we should treat any sudden shifts in the euro-dollar pair with caution. If new data significantly alters this context—like stronger growth or higher inflation in the eurozone—we will need to reassess short-term strategies. Until then, it seems that the market will continue to trade within set boundaries for the foreseeable future. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Kazāks thinks a meeting-by-meeting strategy is suitable due to significant uncertainty in trade measures.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is now making monetary policy decisions based on each meeting, taking into account current economic uncertainty. This approach helps them stay flexible and react to changing market conditions.
Right now, there’s a strong chance of a 25 basis points rate cut in June, with traders placing the probability at about 91%.
Challenges For The ECB
The ECB faces challenges in aligning its strategies with market expectations. There’s a lot of pressure on them to adjust their policies to meet both market and economic needs. The ECB’s approach shows that they will evaluate each decision based on recent data, which means predictable interest rate policies are unlikely in the near future. Monetary decisions will now shift continuously based on updated figures instead of guiding long-term projections. This indicates that relying on fixed assumptions about interest rates in the coming months may lead to negative outcomes. The market’s strong expectation of a 25 basis point cut in early summer highlights traders’ confidence in easing monetary policy. With the probability around 91%, there is little room for positive surprises. If the ECB doesn’t cut rates as anticipated, the market reaction will likely be quick and severe. We’ve seen in the past that when traders heavily price in an outcome, even a decision to keep rates unchanged can feel like a tightening. Lagarde’s comments suggest that policymakers are intentionally avoiding a predictable path. They want to prevent making commitments that might need to be retracted later, as this could shake both market stability and public trust. Consequently, traders cannot rely on previous strategies that assumed clear signals—it is now essential to recognize that guidance has gone quiet for the time being.Speculative Market Strategies
Villeroy’s suggestion to adjust rates and then hold them steady for a while indicates that after one expected move, we might not see another for several meetings. This could discourage speculation about a quick series of rate cuts, which is important for short-term trading strategies based on sequential cuts. Knot emphasizes caution, which highlights concerns about declaring inflation as fully contained too soon. This view contrasts with the market’s confidence heading into June. If we consider his perspective along with current service inflation figures, expectations for rate movements beyond summer may be overly optimistic. A single rate cut is one thing, but a full cycle of cuts is quite another. From a volatility perspective, there is likely to be increased uncertainty in the later part of the rate curve. Contracts that mature after summer are particularly vulnerable to downward pricing adjustments if no forward guidance is provided and data does not improve as expected. Therefore, rather than focusing solely on the pace of rate cuts, attention should shift to how volatility skews are calibrated. In practice, this means favoring strategies that perform well in range-bound markets or benefit from sudden changes, rather than those that depend on consistent directional movement. With current terminal rates, betting on mean-reversion might be more valuable than chasing trends. The ECB will not provide a clear roadmap, so the market should not expect one. What’s certain is that each piece of data carries more significance now. Next month’s inflation reports could lead to substantial shifts in market positioning. Mispricing leading up to that event may create the best opportunities for short-term profits. Instead of taking a firm stance on rates, focus on expressions of uncertainty. By leaning towards implied volatility rather than directional certainty, traders can position themselves without having to predict timing perfectly. As we’ve learned, sometimes the clearest path is the one that hasn’t been taken yet. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Italy’s trade balance within the EU decreased from €-0.361 billion to €-2.453 billion.
Italy’s trade balance with the European Union changed from a deficit of €0.361 billion to a bigger deficit of €2.453 billion in March. This shows a significant increase in the trade gap in just one month.
At the same time, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell below 1.1200, influenced by a stronger US Dollar. All eyes are now on upcoming US sentiment data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Other Currency Movements
In other currency news, GBP/USD dropped below 1.3300 as the Dollar strengthened due to positive expectations about US trade deals. Market watchers are ready for upcoming data releases. Gold prices fell and are now around $3,200 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. The stalled talks between Ukraine and Russia continue to affect the market. Bitcoin is nearing a key resistance level of $105,000, which could influence market direction. Ethereum and Ripple are holding important support levels that may affect their future price movements. President Trump’s trip to the Middle East led to several important deals aimed at boosting US trade and strengthening technology and defense exports. This visit could change market dynamics in the affected sectors. Italy’s growing trade deficit with the EU—from just over €360 million to €2.45 billion—indicates a rapid shift in trade flows. This suggests increased import pressures without a similar rise in exports. Although not surprising due to seasonal changes and varying demand across major EU economies, this situation limits flexibility in euro-denominated positions.Monitoring The Market
We’re keeping an eye on EUR/USD as it falls below 1.1200. The quick move below this level shows growing confidence in the US Dollar. Expectations about monetary policy, especially with upcoming sentiment data and Federal Reserve speeches, could be key drivers. With Powell speaking later this week and inflation remaining high, traders should prepare for a possibly more hawkish tone than expected. The British Pound has also faced challenges. GBP/USD’s drop below 1.3300 was fueled by renewed optimism about Washington’s trade strategy. While there are risks in both directions, the Dollar’s strength seems to stem from actual policy successes rather than just talk. When the Greenback gains strength, other pairs often take time to recover. Gold, despite significant news and price movements, hasn’t surged. Currently trading just below $3,200, it still attracts risk-averse buyers, but momentum is slowing. The deadlock in Ukraine-Russia diplomacy continues to dampen sentiment. Any credible changes—either escalation or resolution—could quickly shift safe-haven flows. At the moment, gold seems constrained. In the digital currency space, Bitcoin is approaching $105,000. This level holds speculative significance; breaking through could spark a new wave of investments driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). Staying below may lead to short-term fatigue, especially as volatility stabilizes. Ethereum and Ripple remain steady, tracking critical support levels that could indicate future trends among altcoins under economic pressure. Trump’s Middle East visit resulted in defense and technology agreements, shifting the focus of bilateral trade in those areas. The importance here is not just the size of the deals but their concentration in sensitive and innovative industries, which often lead to longer-lasting price reactions. There might be cross-asset effects—watch defense stocks and currency trades involving Gulf nations, especially with renewed interest in non-oil sectors. Looking ahead, the coming week presents multiple pressure points. Developments in FX, metals, and crypto are shifting from a narrow range to more directional movements. Choices made now could have significant repercussions—less noise, more signal. That’s what we need to pay attention to. Risk is not evenly spread. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold prices drop below $3,200 during the European session, hitting a new daily low
Gold prices dropped again, reversing gains from the previous day. Optimism about a US-China trade deal made gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, less appealing. Simultaneously, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened the US Dollar, which could have lessened gold’s losses against ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Gold’s price fell below $3,200 in early European trading. Despite weaker US economic data suggesting more rate cuts and falling Treasury bond yields, these didn’t significantly lift gold prices. The decline indicates a market preference for riskier investments over safer options like gold.
Geopolitical Risks And Market Trends
The US and China recently agreed to reduce tariffs, easing some economic tensions. However, ongoing geopolitical issues, including violence in Gaza and stalled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, remain concerning. These tensions could eventually boost gold prices, but recent market trends are keeping them low. From a technical perspective, gold has resistance near the $3,252-3,255 range. If prices drop below $3,178-3,177, they may decline further towards $3,120. On the other hand, overcoming immediate resistance might lead to a rally, potentially pushing prices back to $3,300 and changing the current negative trend. Recently, market sentiment has shifted toward equities and other riskier assets, putting pressure on safe havens like gold. The decline in gold prices below $3,200 suggests a change in market attitudes toward hedging against uncertainty. This shift followed news of eased tariffs between the US and China, which revived investor interest in higher-return assets. However, US macroeconomic indicators still show weakness. Poor labor market and manufacturing data suggest that the Federal Reserve may pursue further rate cuts. Usually, this could support gold since a weaker dollar tends to boost precious metals, but this time, the impact has been muted. Markets now seem more interested in higher-risk returns than seeking safety.Market Insights And Technical Levels
We see that immediate support and resistance levels can provide short-term guidance. However, the overall direction relies more on the interplay between bond yields and global risk factors. If prices drop below the $3,177 support, further selling pressure could target the low $3,100s, where speculative interest might return. At these levels, trading activity could impact market momentum. On the upside, the resistance around $3,252-3,255 remains significant. Sustained movement above this will require not just a brief shift to risk-off sentiment but strong conviction—possibly triggered by clear signs of slowing growth or increased volatility. If that happens, prices might breach $3,300, potentially changing the market outlook for the medium term. Regarding broader geopolitical tensions, especially in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, market patience has been remarkable. These challenges remain present, offering traders options without immediate action. The muted response to these stresses indicates that traders are waiting for clearer signals before making defensive moves. Looking forward, attention will shift to central bank discussions and guidance. The bond market is responding already, and any reassurance from policymakers about easing will likely keep real rates low. This should theoretically offer some support for non-yielding assets, but speculative interest has yet to follow. Traders should pay close attention to volume behavior near the mentioned technical levels. If selling pressure increases below the lower range, we may need to reassess downside targets not seen in weeks. However, if there’s a bounce with significant volume near support, short-covering could lead to brief rallies, providing opportunities for those willing to play against extremes until a clearer trend emerges. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/USD will focus on expirations at 1.1200, with nearby levels affecting price movements.
On May 16, EUR/USD option expiries are scheduled for 10 AM New York time, with significant interest at the 1.1200 level. This major expiry is likely to keep the price close to this number until it expires later in the day.
There are also expiries at 1.1150 and 1.1225, which may help keep the price within a certain range, while the main focus remains on the 1.1200 level. These expiries could impact market behavior and price movement.
Headline Risks
It’s vital to consider headline risks since markets are sensitive to trade and geopolitical developments. This information can help predict potential market changes. The EUR/USD pair is near the 1.1200 level ahead of the 10 AM cutoff on May 16. It is mainly supported by a large volume of options set to expire at this level, which often keeps the spot price stable, especially when many options cluster around a single strike. Significant positions at nearby levels—1.1150 and 1.1225—will also help limit price momentum before the cutoff. This clustering tends to restrict intraday price movement, making sharp changes less likely unless an external factor moves the price away from this range. Essentially, data shows that traders, especially those managing large derivative positions, have aligned their strategies to keep market prices near the 1.1200 level for the expiry. This indicates an intentional effort to manage exposure, particularly when there is a high notional size at a specific strike. This suggests that spot trading is currently driven more by the mechanics of options than by strong directional trends. Looking beyond the static view, we must consider headline sensitivity. Developments in trade and new geopolitical tensions can cause sudden market reactions, increasing FX volatility with little warning. Although these movements often fade quickly, their initial impact can push prices through otherwise stable levels. This adds uncertainty, making risk management more challenging when expiration clusters are in effect.Strategy and Timing
In this type of environment, it’s wise to base strategy not just on technical levels or macro expectations but also on the timing and scale of notable expiries. Large totals near one strike can serve as a short-term anchor. Knowing where these expiries are and when they occur helps us gauge where prices may be artificially stabilized and for how long. This insight can prevent being caught off guard by what appears to be a trending move, which could just be option-driven flow that dies down after the expiry. In the coming days, these insights can inform how to time early entries and which levels to focus on during low-activity hours. For those on delta desks, mapping out these expiries is critical for intraday planning. Keep in mind, when prices approach a strike, it’s often not by chance; rather, it’s due to light hedging pressure from dealers who need to manage their gamma exposure as expiry approaches. Once the 1.1200 level rolls off, expect some of that influence to diminish—but not before making its mark. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Japan’s GDP data disappoints, yen fluctuates, NZD/USD rises, and gold prices drop sharply
Japan recently released its initial GDP data for Q1, showing a -0.7% annualized drop compared to the previous quarter. This marks the first decline in a year and highlights difficulties in the economic recovery. Exports fell, even as global demand rose due to U.S. tariffs.
After the GDP data came out, the yen strengthened. The GDP deflator, which indicates inflation, rose by 3.3% year-on-year. The USD/JPY currency pair dipped to around 145.00 but later bounced back to over 145.40, settling near 145.30.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank published its Q2 inflation expectations survey. It revealed that inflation expectations for both the one-year and two-year periods increased, leading to a rise in the NZD/USD from about 0.5865 to above 0.5900.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly against several currencies, including the euro, Australian dollar, British pound, and Canadian dollar. Gold prices also fell, dropping below USD 3210.
Japan’s preliminary GDP figures show an annualized output decrease of 0.7% compared to the last three months, the first decline in a year. This downturn reflects waning demand both in Japan and globally, particularly in exports. This decline is notable since it happened even with global trends that usually support exports, especially given U.S. tariffs meant to shift trade flows. However, these factors didn’t help Japan’s export levels.
Following the GDP release, the yen gained strength, which makes sense since the GDP deflator increased by 3.3% year-on-year. This indicates rising price pressures. Although Japan’s economic output shrank, inflation is still persistent. The USD/JPY pair initially fell toward 145.00 but later recovered above 145.40, settling slightly lower in that range, suggesting indecision from traders.
In New Zealand, the latest survey hints at a small boost for the local currency. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s findings showed that inflation expectations for both short and medium terms have risen. This uplift for the NZD took it from about 0.5865 to just over 0.5900. Such surveys affect how central banks think — higher expectations may lead to prolonged interest rate increases.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar slightly weakened against major currencies, including the euro, Australian dollar, British pound, and Canadian dollar. This gradual decline suggests a lack of strong buying interest for the dollar, possibly due to mixed data or positioning before upcoming events.
In a different sector, gold prices fell under the USD 3210 mark. This movement seems more driven by market flows rather than specific data changes. Price drops like this can occur when traders rebalance their positions.
Looking ahead, several factors are essential to monitor. For the yen, price movements have reacted more to inflation than economic growth. Divergence in policies between Japan and the U.S. remains significant. While Tokyo may be hesitant to tighten policy despite rising prices, any shifts from the U.S. Federal Reserve could influence this currency pair. Currently, the spot levels around 145.00–145.40 are being tested, and if economic growth continues to disappoint while the deflator rises, speculation about policy changes could arise.
Regarding the kiwi, increased inflation expectations might spark renewed interest in rate hikes. As a result, volatility may increase, primarily if the currency continues to respond more to expectations than to hard data. This situation leaves room for potential overreactions. Therefore, a tactical approach, such as placing tighter stops or splitting trades during uncertain times, could be beneficial.
As for the broader dollar weaknesses, movements appear cautious without strong thematic drivers, influenced more by specific currency factors. The outlook remains heavily reliant on upcoming U.S. data—especially inflation, labor, and spending reports. Surprises in these areas could quickly boost the dollar, so it’s important to stay alert regarding dollar-denominated assets.
Regarding gold, the drop below USD 3210 could lead to further momentum trades if risk appetite increases in equities or if bond markets stabilize. However, it acts as a gauge: if investors expect interest rates to remain high, gold prices may suffer; if not, they could recover.
In summary, inflation trends, central bank policies, and risk appetite are crucial to watch. Directional trades in these markets are likely to be brief unless stronger macro signals emerge. Flexibility in strategy is essential; pullbacks may be met with buying pressure, while rallies could face resistance.
Palladium starts the European session lower at $959.22 per troy ounce.
Platinum Group Metals are seeing a drop early on Friday. Palladium is priced at $959.22 per ounce, down slightly from $964.05.
Platinum is also down slightly, trading at $991.20 compared to $994.10 before. Both metals are under pressure during the early European trading hours.
Market Figures Warning
These market figures are for informational purposes only and contain risks. They should not be used as instructions for buying or selling these assets. Always do thorough research before making decisions, as there is a possibility of significant financial losses. This information does not include personal investment advice and aims for accuracy. However, the audience is responsible for any errors or missing information. The EUR/USD is steady around 1.1200, affected by a weak US Dollar and various economic factors. Attention remains on upcoming US sentiment data and comments from the Federal Reserve. GBP/USD shows modest increases, trading above 1.3300 due to US Dollar weakness. Expectations for changes in Federal Reserve interest rates are driving this movement. Gold prices have fallen below $3,200 as the market shifts away from safe-haven assets. Positive developments in US-China trade are helping to drive this change.Early Movement In Metals And Markets
The early movements in Platinum Group Metals reveal light but ongoing pressure on both Palladium and Platinum during the European trading session. Palladium’s slip below $960 and Platinum’s drop below $995 indicate changes in trader sentiment, not alarm. While these changes are small, they show a lack of new buying interest as market risk appetite grows. This weakness is likely linked to broader economic factors rather than specific problems within the sector. Platinum and Palladium have both industrial and investment uses, so their price moves reflect wider trends in currency values, stock markets, and bond yields. With tighter price ranges, implied volatility for these metals remains low, showing limited potential for price changes in short-term options unless new factors arise. In the foreign exchange market, the situation is clearer. The EUR/USD’s steady position around 1.1200 is due to ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. This decline is connected to changing expectations about US monetary policy. Upcoming sentiment data will help determine if the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts are too aggressive. Until then, the pressure on the US Dollar supports the Euro’s stability. Sterling’s modest rise above 1.3300 follows the same trend. The market isn’t overly confident in the UK economy but is benefiting from reduced interest in Dollar assets. These gradual adjustments create opportunities for short-term trading based on rate differences and relative economic strength. Traders in Sterling futures or options should watch for any updates from the Federal Reserve, as these can significantly influence yield curves and swap rates. In commodities, Gold’s fall below $3,200 per ounce signals a shift away from safe-haven investments. Optimism about US-China trade relations is reducing the demand for hedging against geopolitical risks. When interest in Gold drops, it often coincides with increased buying in stocks and riskier currencies. This relationship between metals and currency markets shows that the desire for safe investments is weakening, at least for now. Overall, the trading patterns in metals and currencies point to a market environment favoring short-term trades and careful leverage management. With low volatility and uncertain economic signals, staying flexible and responsive is crucial. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.New Zealand’s rising inflation expectations lead the RBNZ to reevaluate monetary policy strategies.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey for Q2 2025 shows an increase in both 1-year and 2-year inflation expectations. The 1-year forecast jumped to 2.41% from 2.15%, and the 2-year forecast rose to 2.3% from 2.1%.
RBNZ surveys gather insights from business leaders and experts about inflation expectations. In recent quarters, these surveys indicated a general decline in inflation expectations, approaching the RBNZ’s target range of 1–3%. The 1-year expectation slightly increased in Q1 2025, while the 2-year expectation continued to fall, indicating confidence in stable prices in the medium term.
