Oversupply worries prompt sellers, leaving WTI crude near $62.50 in early European trading
WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, traded near $62.50 in early European trading on Friday. Prices came under pressure as oversupply worries continued.
In its monthly report on Thursday, the IEA said global oil demand growth this year is likely to be weaker than it previously expected. It also forecast that total supply will be higher than demand.
Compiled data show that gold prices in the Philippines rose as bullion increased in Friday’s trading session
Gold prices in the Philippines rose on Friday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at PHP 9,306.92 per gram, up from PHP 9,160.19 on Thursday.
Gold rose to PHP 108,554.30 per tola from PHP 106,842.70 a day earlier. Other listed prices were PHP 93,069.37 for 10 grams and PHP 289,476.60 per troy ounce.
How FXStreet Converts Global Gold Prices
FXStreet converts global gold prices into Philippine pesos using the USD/PHP exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication, but local rates may vary slightly. Central banks are the biggest holders of gold and keep it as part of their reserves. They bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. This was the largest annual purchase since record-keeping began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets. Key drivers include geopolitical tension, recession worries, and interest rates. Many moves are tied to changes in the US Dollar because gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). Gold prices are rising not only in Philippine pesos, but also worldwide. This suggests the move is not just a local currency effect. Instead, it points to stronger demand for gold. Derivatives traders may see this as a sign that market conditions are turning more supportive for gold.Key Market Forces Supporting Gold
In 2025, central banks continued to buy large amounts of gold, building on the record purchases in earlier years. For example, central banks added more than 1,037 tonnes in 2024, the second-highest year on record. That strong demand continued through last year. This steady buying helps create a solid floor under prices. Right now, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened, falling below 102 after peaking in late 2025. A softer dollar is usually positive for gold. The move is linked to recent Federal Reserve comments that suggest a pause—or even a shift—in interest rates as economic data slows. Because gold does not pay interest, it tends to look more attractive when rate expectations drop. Inflation, while easing, remained an issue through 2025. It is still a concern for many investors. With US inflation in January 2026 at a stubborn 3.1%, more market participants are using gold as a hedge against declining purchasing power. This supports gold’s long-standing role as a store of value. With these factors in mind, traders may want to plan for more upside in the weeks ahead. Bullish approaches—such as buying call options on major gold ETFs or using futures—can be one way to benefit if prices keep rising. Higher volatility can also push option premiums up, which may create opportunities for traders who manage risk well. Gold’s negative relationship with risk assets has also become stronger. After a strong run in 2025, equity markets are showing signs of anxiety. If stocks fall, investors may move into safe-haven assets, which can lift gold prices further. This can make gold a useful hedge in a broader derivatives portfolio. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.UAE gold prices rise, with compiled data showing an increase based on figures from other sources
Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Gold traded at AED 589.53 per gram, up from AED 580.31 on Thursday.
The price per tola climbed to AED 6,875.65 from AED 6,768.61 the day before. FXStreet also reported AED 5,895.25 for 10 grams and AED 18,336.54 per troy ounce.
Uae Gold Prices Update
FXStreet converts global gold prices into AED using the USD/AED exchange rate and local measurement units. Prices are updated daily at the time of publication, and local rates may vary slightly. Central banks are the biggest holders of gold and use it to diversify their reserves. They bought 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion in 2022, the World Gold Council said. This was the highest annual total since records began. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the US Dollar and US Treasuries. It can also move against risk assets such as stocks. Prices may also react to geopolitical events, recession worries, and interest-rate changes. Gold does not pay interest, so higher rates can reduce its appeal. Gold’s recent strength looks like a classic safe-haven move. The US Dollar Index has slipped to around 101.5 this month, extending the downtrend that began in late 2025. This inverse link is a major driver. If the dollar stays weak, gold is more likely to rise.Market Outlook For Gold
Inflation is also supporting gold. The January 2026 CPI report surprised to the upside at 3.8%. That was well above expectations and makes the Federal Reserve’s next steps harder after it paused rate hikes last year. Persistent inflation strengthens gold’s role as a hedge and can pull money away from cash. Demand from large institutions also remains strong. Fourth-quarter 2025 data showed central banks—especially in emerging markets—kept buying and added another 250 tonnes to global reserves. This steady demand can create a floor under prices and may help support dips. For derivatives traders, this setup may favor call options. They can offer upside exposure with limited risk. Implied volatility has been rising, with the Cboe Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) up nearly 15% over the past month. That suggests the market expects bigger price swings. Building bullish positions before volatility rises further could be helpful. Futures traders may consider keeping a long bias and using pullbacks toward short-term moving averages as potential entry points. A key resistance level is the high from November 2025. A break above it could open the door to a stronger rally. Risk management may include stop-loss orders below the recent consolidation range. The main risk to this view is a more hawkish Federal Reserve. That would likely lift the US dollar and weigh on gold. Strategies such as call spreads can help lower costs and define risk if the market turns quickly. Upcoming Fed speeches will be important to watch for any shift in tone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.NZD/USD steadies near 0.6025, remains below 0.6050 as traders await the US CPI report
NZD/USD stayed near 0.6025 in early Friday trading in Asia after easing back from a two-week high. It held below 0.6050 and lacked a clear trend as traders waited for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
The CPI report is a key input for Federal Reserve policy expectations. After a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Wednesday, markets scaled back the chance of a March rate cut. Markets still expect two US rate cuts in 2026, but worries about threats to the Fed’s independence limited broader US Dollar gains.
China Support And New Zealand Headwinds
The New Zealand Dollar found some support from expectations that China may add more fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, New Zealand’s higher unemployment rate in Q4 2025 lowered expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will need to tighten policy. Risk-off trading helped the US Dollar as a safe haven and added pressure to the Kiwi. In general, risk-on markets tend to lift equities, many commodities, and currencies like NZD. Risk-off markets usually favour bonds, gold, and safe-haven currencies such as USD, JPY, and CHF. NZD/USD is still struggling to find direction and is trading just under 0.6050. Traders are also digesting this week’s US CPI report for January, which came in slightly hotter than expected at 2.8% year over year. That has reduced hopes for an early Fed rate cut. This highlights a growing policy gap between the central banks. Fed officials are now signalling that a cut before mid-year is unlikely. In New Zealand, unemployment rose in late 2025, and weak retail sales in January 2026 suggest the RBNZ has little reason to tighten. These fundamentals may limit any strong Kiwi rallies.Sentiment China And Derivatives Positioning
Market sentiment remains fragile and leans risk-off, with traders favouring the safety of the US Dollar. China announced stimulus measures during the Lunar New Year break, but the market response has been muted. Many investors doubt the measures will lift growth in a meaningful way. Without a stronger boost from China, NZD loses an important source of support. For derivatives traders, this backdrop may favour selling rallies near the top of the recent 0.6000 to 0.6150 range. Buying put options can help protect against a downside break, especially as one-month implied volatility has risen to 9.5%. With uncertainty still high, a short strangle—selling out-of-the-money calls and puts—could benefit if the pair stays range-bound in the weeks ahead. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CAD edges higher toward 1.3600 in Asia as strong US jobs data dampens Fed rate-cut expectations
USD/CAD edged up to around 1.3615 in Asian trading on Friday as the US Dollar gained slightly against the Canadian Dollar. Later on Friday, attention shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, beating the 70,000 forecast. The Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.3%, which supports the view that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in the near term.
Oil Prices And Canadian Dollar Pressure
Crude oil prices fell on expectations of weaker global oil demand in 2026. This weighed on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Canada is a major oil exporter, and lower oil prices often pressure the currency. Federal Reserve comments also moved the pair. Governor Stephan Miran said monetary policy has tightened passively. He also said the central bank can afford lower interest rates. Markets are pricing in nearly a 92% chance the Fed will hold rates at its next meeting. The odds of a rate cut in June are close to 50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The strong January US jobs report supports the case for USD/CAD to rise further toward 1.3700. This points to near-term call options as a possible strategy. However, the upcoming US CPI report is a major risk. If inflation is cooler than expected, the pair could quickly give back these gains.Fed Signals And Volatility Strategies
The Canadian dollar is also weakening because crude oil prices are dropping, which hurts commodity-linked currencies. WTI crude has recently broken below the $70 per barrel support level, down sharply from its Q4 2025 highs near $85. This strengthens the case for a higher USD/CAD, since Canada’s economy is closely tied to energy exports. Even with the US dollar firm, mixed Federal Reserve messaging is increasing uncertainty for the months ahead. This echoes the Fed’s pauses in the second half of 2025, when data signals were also uneven. With close to a 50% chance of a June rate cut, traders may look at volatility strategies such as straddles to benefit from potential larger moves. All eyes are on US inflation data due later today. Headline CPI for December 2025 was 3.1%. A hotter-than-expected reading today could push USD/CAD above the key resistance levels seen late last year. A softer print, however, would support dovish Fed views and could send the pair sharply lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.New Zealand’s RBNZ quarterly inflation expectations rose to 2.37% from 2.28%
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank inflation expectations rose to 2.37% in the first quarter, up from 2.28% in the previous quarter.
That is an increase of 0.09 percentage points quarter over quarter. The figure comes from the RBNZ’s Q1 survey of expected inflation.
Implications For RBNZ Policy
With inflation expectations rising to 2.37%, this points to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeping a hawkish stance. It also lowers the chance of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Traders may expect the New Zealand dollar (NZD) to stay supported in the near term. This reading matters even more because it follows the Q4 2025 CPI print of 3.1%, which is still above the central bank’s 1–3% target band. Sticky inflation suggests price pressures are easing slowly. That supports a “higher for longer” outlook for New Zealand’s official cash rate. In the interest rate swaps market, the curve may shift higher as traders price out dovish expectations. Traders may look at strategies that benefit from stable or rising short-term rates, such as paying fixed on 2-year swaps. Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) may now price out most of the chance of a rate cut before the third quarter. For currency derivatives, this backdrop supports the kiwi, especially against currencies backed by more dovish central banks, such as the Australian dollar. We expect stronger interest in NZD/USD call options, with attention on strikes above 0.6400 for March and April expiries. Implied volatility could also rise ahead of the next RBNZ meeting on February 25th.Historical Context And Market Positioning
In 2023, the RBNZ was one of the last major central banks to move away from a hiking bias. That track record suggests the Bank may accept slower growth to bring inflation back to target. This history can support long NZD positions versus currencies where markets are more actively pricing in rate cuts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Oversupply worries keep WTI near $62.80 a barrel after a 3% fall in the previous session
WTI traded near $62.80 a barrel in the Asian session on Friday, after dropping more than 3% in the prior session. Prices remained under pressure as oversupply concerns continued.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026 and cut its global oil demand forecast for that year. The IEA also said global inventories grew in 2025 at the fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic.
Market Supply Pressure
US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could continue for up to a month. That eased near-term fears of supply disruptions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Trump appeared to be working on a framework to address tensions tied to Iran’s nuclear activities. Industry data and Reuters calculations showed Russia’s seaborne oil product exports rose 0.7% in January from December, reaching 9.12 million metric tons. The increase was linked to strong fuel output and seasonally weaker domestic demand. Venezuela was reportedly preparing to allocate more oil production acreage to Chevron and Spain’s Repsol. A Bloomberg report said officials in Caracas could award new exploration and production blocks as early as this week. Oversupply fears that built up through 2025 now look like reality, keeping WTI prices low. The IEA’s forecast of a 3.7 million barrel-per-day surplus in 2026 is still weighing on the market. This points to a strongly bearish outlook for oil.Trading Position Considerations
On the supply side, U.S. shale output has stayed high. Recent EIA data showed a weekly inventory build of 2.1 million barrels, adding to already large stockpiles. OPEC+ compliance has also been uneven. January data showed Russian seaborne exports up 0.7% from the prior month. Overall, supply remains heavy and the glut is not easing. Demand is also a worry, especially as recent data suggests slower growth. China’s latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.1, only slightly above the expansion line. That signals weak factory activity, which can reduce fuel use. As the world’s largest oil importer, China’s soft demand outlook offers little support for a strong price rebound. Geopolitics is providing limited help as well, much like last year. Ongoing U.S. diplomacy with Iran has reduced the risk premium that often lifts crude during Middle East tensions. With that support absent, the market is trading mainly on weak supply-and-demand fundamentals. In this setting, it may make sense to position for more downside, or at least for limited upside. Buying WTI put options with strikes around $60 or lower for the next few weeks is one direct way to benefit if prices fall further. This offers strong upside if the oversupply story stays in focus. If you expect prices to stay range-bound below current levels, selling call options or using bear call spreads with a cap near $65 may be effective. This can generate income based on the view that rallies will struggle due to excess supply. It also fits a market that lacks upward momentum. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Japan’s trade minister, Ryosei Akazawa, discussed Japan’s U.S.-focused investment package projects with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Japan’s Trade Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, said he discussed projects in Japan’s US-focused investment package with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He said work is moving forward and that he wants to speed up talks on the first group of projects.
Akazawa also pushed measures to increase exports of Japanese farm products, including Japanese beef. He added that both sides discussed possible joint projects to diversify supply chains for critical minerals.
Investment Package Talks Update
He said talks on the investment package have moved forward, but the two sides are still some way from an agreement. He said negotiations have been difficult, and he could not say when the first projects would be finalised. He said he plans to strengthen Japan–US economic ties ahead of Sanae Takaichi’s planned visit to the United States. At the time of writing, USD/JPY was around 153.25, up 0.38% on the day. The latest meeting shows progress on the investment package. However, Akazawa’s comments that talks are difficult and have no clear end date point to ongoing uncertainty. That helps explain why USD/JPY has stayed firm near 153.25. In our view, this news alone is unlikely to reverse the yen’s underlying weakness. The main driver remains the large interest rate gap between the US and Japan. The US Federal Reserve held its key rate at 3.25% at its January 2026 meeting, while the Bank of Japan has kept its policy rate close to 0.1%. This gap, which has widened since early 2025, continues to make the US dollar more attractive than the yen. The trade talks matter, but they are a secondary factor compared with this policy divide.USDJPY Range And Volatility
Looking back at the sharp interventions in 2025, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has shown it is uncomfortable with the yen weakening beyond 155. With USD/JPY now near 153.25, that history creates a psychological ceiling for the market. Because of this, range-based options strategies may be worth considering, such as selling strangles with strikes placed well outside the recent trading range. Implied volatility in USD/JPY has been falling. One-month options now price an expected move of about 8.2% annualised, down from the higher levels seen last year. The unclear timeline for the trade talks suggests this low-volatility setting may continue in the near term. That can make longer-dated options relatively inexpensive for positioning for a possible breakout later in the year if a deal is suddenly announced. Beyond FX, it may also be worth watching derivatives linked to the Nikkei 225. A completed investment deal could support Japanese exporters and firms tied to critical minerals, which were part of the discussions. Buying call options on Nikkei futures could be one way to gain upside exposure to the talks without taking direct exposure to potentially volatile currency moves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Fed Governor Stephan Miran said policy has tightened passively, giving the central bank room to cut rates somewhat
Federal Reserve Board member Stephan Miran said monetary policy has tightened without the Fed actively doing more. He said the central bank could cut interest rates and still support economic growth.
He said the Federal Reserve is one of the biggest risks to growth, and that policy may be tighter than many people think. He also said that inflation—after adjusting for measurement biases—is very close to the Fed’s target and that prices are broadly stable.
Implications For Policy And The Labor Market
Miran said there is some slack in the labour market and that monetary policy has room to help. He said it makes sense to support the labour market with easier policy, and he estimates the natural rate of unemployment at 4%. He said he is not worried about inflation unless rents rise sharply. He also said the impact of tariffs has not shown up in inflation data. He said the US fiscal outlook is improving and that US growth is outperforming, which supports the US dollar’s reserve-currency status. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was around 97.00, up 0.10% on the day. Because monetary policy appears to have tightened passively, we believe the Federal Reserve has room to lower interest rates. The latest core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for January 2026 was 2.1% year over year, which supports the view that inflation is very close to the Fed’s target. That suggests the risk of an inflation spiral is low and gives policymakers more flexibility.Trade Positioning And Market Impact
These comments could shift expectations for the Fed’s next move and make rate cuts in the second quarter more likely. Derivative traders may want to position for a more dovish path using Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, with at least one or two cuts priced in before the end of the summer. Buying call options on Treasury note futures (ZN) may also be a practical way to benefit from falling yields. For equity markets, this outlook is supportive because lower rates raise the value of future earnings. We may consider buying call spreads on the S&P 500 (SPX) or Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to take advantage of a potential rally in growth-focused sectors. This would reduce concerns about a Fed-driven slowdown that has been weighing on stocks. Despite the recent strength in the U.S. Dollar Index, a clear shift toward easier policy would likely weaken the currency. Q4 2025 GDP growth of 2.5% highlights US outperformance, but interest-rate differences still drive currency markets. We could consider buying puts on U.S. Dollar Index futures or buying calls on EUR/USD in anticipation of this change. Labour market data also supports this view. The January unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, and annual wage growth slowed to 3.5%. This suggests there is slack in the market, which gives the Fed room to focus on employment without triggering inflation. This is a meaningful change from the tighter labour market seen through much of 2024. A similar pattern appeared in early 2019. The Fed shifted from a tightening stance to an easing stance, and risk assets rallied as markets stopped pricing in hikes and began pricing in cuts. Miran’s comments suggest a similar shift could be developing now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After an 11% plunge, silver rebounds toward $76.60 in Asia ahead of US CPI data
Silver traded near $76.60 during Asian hours on Friday, after falling more than 11% late Thursday. The drop came as stocks shifted into risk-off mode and silver slid in a fast sell-off, likely driven by algorithmic trading.
The decline followed weakness in technology shares and market moves linked to worries about Artificial Intelligence. Margin calls were also mentioned as a factor that may have added to losses in precious metals.
