In early May, the Semiconductor Index (SOX) was at $4,430, with expectations to rise to between $4,550 and $5,090, as long as it stayed above $3,963. Recently, the index reached $4,996, and it’s currently at $4,865, showing a 10% increase. This analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Principle, which observes patterns to understand financial trends over time. Current estimates suggest the SOX could climb to $5,150 if it stays above last week’s low of $4,700 and especially above $4,430. This scenario fits with the completion of specific wave phases and the ongoing wave sequence. The index is currently in a Cycle-4 wave, which in Elliott Wave terms is known for flat corrections.

Wave Pattern Insights

The wave pattern implies that the SOX could return to the $5,000s, possibly reaching $5,700, based on the flat correction indicating a 3-3-5 structure. In the short term, the trend is expected to continue upwards, with targets set between $5,090 and $5,450, provided it stays above $4,500. Future evaluations will focus on these target zones for further developments. This forecast depends on market behavior and is not a guarantee of what will happen. What we’ve seen in the Semiconductor Index (SOX) so far follows typical Elliott Wave characteristics, particularly regarding wave formations in the larger Cycle-4 structure. For those unfamiliar, Cycle-4 in Elliott analysis often has what’s called a ‘flat correction.’ This involves three phases — typically two sideways moves with a brief dip in between. It suggests a certain order, as long as the lower thresholds hold. The recent high of $4,996 was very close to the target zone’s upper region mentioned in early May. This movement supports the idea that Wave B (within the flat correction) is nearing completion, particularly since last week’s low was $4,700, keeping the wave sequence intact. The key levels to watch now are $4,700 first, then $4,430. If these levels hold, the current movement indicates an upward push — termed Wave C in the flat structure. Market Strategy and Considerations Flat corrections typically conclude with an impulsive five-wave climb. If we are in this phase, then a move toward $5,150 or even $5,450 is probable. Prices are currently just below $5,000 and may enter a brief consolidation before another upward move begins. However, if the index drops below $4,500, especially below $4,430, it would necessitate a reevaluation of strategy. For derivatives traders, plans should be closely tied to reactions around $4,700 and $4,500. If the SOX dips into that range but rebounds without breaking below, then short-dated long positions could still make sense, provided the risk aligns with support levels. The deeper the pullback without breaking structure, the stronger the chance for a clean five-wave rise toward targets in the $5,200–$5,450 range. Given the nature of Wave C moves, they can speed up quickly, often catching traders off guard. Timing tools around re-tests of recent highs can help refine entry points. At the moment, the trend looks steady, indicating that the technical foundations are solid. If, over the next two weeks, the index stays above $4,700 and ideally maintains the $4,850–$4,900 area on dips, then the likelihood of continued upside increases. We will keep an eye on the SOX’s behavior concerning these levels. Each dip is more than just noise — it helps define the price potential to move forward. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Pound Sterling saw slight gains against the US Dollar on Tuesday after a trade deal was reached between the UK and the EU. This news helped the Pound rise, but the Federal Reserve’s strong stance kept GBP/USD below 1.3400, trading at 1.3371. In North American trading, the Pound values remained steady against the Dollar around 1.3365. Gains earlier in the day dwindled as the US Dollar Index climbed closer to the 100.00 level.

Movement of GBP/USD

Even with these ups and downs, GBP/USD stayed above 1.3350 due to a weaker US Dollar. Moody’s decision to downgrade the US credit rating made the Dollar softer and helped the Pound hover around 1.3360. Other currency pairs, like AUD/USD and USD/JPY, experienced mixed movements because of varying economic factors. The Australian Dollar stayed within a tight range due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious outlook, while USD/JPY faced pressure despite expectations for a stronger Bank of Japan. In the commodities market, gold prices surpassed $3,300, driven by global uncertainty and a weaker US Dollar. Some altcoins, such as Aave and Curve DAO, also continued to perform well. Understanding what drives these market changes is important. The initial boost in Sterling came from renewed trade talks between the UK and EU, which typically suggests less trade friction and a more positive investment climate. However, this optimism was quickly balanced by the Federal Reserve’s firm position, affecting bond yields and Dollar demand. Despite an earlier rally, GBP/USD slipped back toward familiar support levels, indicating that current bullish momentum lacks broader market support. While the exchange rate remains above 1.3350, its struggle to push past 1.3400 suggests that sellers are ready to defend that threshold. Moody’s downgrade of the US credit standing briefly shook confidence in the Dollar, allowing Sterling to gain some ground. However, these credit concerns often fade and do not lead to sustained forex movements unless accompanied by fiscal changes or tensions in the Treasury market.

Currency Movements and Market Implications

Looking at other currencies, the Australian Dollar remained stable within a narrow range, influenced by the Reserve Bank’s cautious tone. There hasn’t been much surprise from the RBA, leading to sideways trading for the Aussie. Conversely, traders expecting aggressive moves from the Bank of Japan found themselves caught off guard as USD/JPY faced pressure, suggesting uncertainty about Tokyo’s willingness to tackle inflation decisively. The commodities sector tells a different story. Gold surpassed $3,300, a significant milestone. This rise illustrates global unease and a Dollar struggling to maintain demand amid risky conditions. Gold often shines in times of uncertainty, particularly regarding recent events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. As for altcoins, assets like Aave and Curve DAO saw gains, fitting into the current risk-on trend in digital assets. Their strength reflects a search for yield and innovation amid uncertainty, but they are also sensitive to changes in macro conditions, especially Dollar fluctuations and central bank news. For short-term traders, it’s crucial to navigate these mixed signals carefully. Those using leveraged products need to be adaptable, as excitement from economic news may fade quickly without a clear shift in expectations. Volatility surrounding central bank announcements or geopolitical events will likely continue to create fast-paced opportunities. Holding positions through such events without clear risk limits could lead to a poor risk-reward balance. It’s essential to monitor Sterling closely around the 1.3350 support and the 1.3400 resistance levels. If it fails to break higher, particularly with neutral economic data, it could test the mid-1.32s, a level with strong support that might attract new demand depending on the Dollar’s overall tone. Risk exposure in AUD and JPY is more complicated. With less emphasis on policy divergence lately, trading has relied more on shifts in sentiment and central bank discussions than on actual changes. Patience, guided by economic surprises or clearer policies, could provide more dependable setups than chasing minor moves. Finally, if gold can hold above $3,300, it will reinforce doubts about the strength of fiat currencies in the near future. This could limit USD gains across various pairs. We are closely observing these developments, preferring short holding periods and quick exits, especially around central bank announcements. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack raised concerns about US government policies making economic management more difficult. She warns that if these policies continue, stagflation—marked by low growth and high inflation—could become more likely. Hammack highlighted how uncertainty is influencing economic activity. She believes that new policies may be needed to offset the impacts of trade policies. She finds a stagflation scenario to be realistic, noting that a proposed tax bill from the White House adds complexity to economic forecasts.

Forward-Looking Statements and Risks

This information contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The market and instruments mentioned are only for informational purposes and should not be seen as investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. There are no guarantees that mistakes will not occur or that the information will be timely. Investing in open markets involves risks, including potential losses and emotional stress. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent official positions or recommendations. There are no business relationships connected to the stocks or companies mentioned. Hammack’s concerns illustrate the economic pressures arising from various sources. Her warning about stagflation highlights the possibility of ongoing inflation even with slowing growth. This situation is not merely hypothetical; it could become a reality if current policies remain unchanged. The measures now in place, or those about to be implemented, may not effectively address what’s required to stabilize the economy. When she mentions issues linked to government policies, she encourages observers to think about fiscal expansion that operates separately from monetary tightening. Additionally, potential new tax legislation from the White House complicates our understanding of inflation and demand. The timing of these policies will significantly influence both direction and volatility in the economy.

Economic Picture and Uncertainty

Hammack suggests that the economic landscape is not just uncertain; it is also complex. Policymaker decisions may seem beneficial short-term, but they could worsen the inflation situation that central banks are striving to control. If this trend continues, we might see longer yields reacting before short rates, especially if slow growth lasts longer than anticipated. For those monitoring rate expectations in the short term, near-term volatility might start to reveal these underlying issues. If forward guidance from the central bank remains limited or contradictory, rate curves will likely change based on new data alone. This uncertainty can be unsettling for those depending on central bank policies to manage risk. Furthermore, with unpredictable trade influences and supply chains, models that rely on historical patterns may not perform well. Adjusting to new responses to fiscal shocks and recalibrating duration could become necessary sooner than expected. In the coming weeks, we should watch not only core inflation and employment figures but also signals from policymakers. Their tones may shift depending on how fiscal measures impact the economy. If market participants doubt the Fed’s ability to respond quickly, they may need to rethink their investment strategies. Strategies focused on disinflation may need to reassess their risk exposure. Changes in real yields and their response to public spending could happen faster than we think. Staying ahead means having plans that can adapt to both flattening and steepening trends as conditions evolve. The timing of liquidity around these changes could increasingly influence relative performance, especially if there is greater variation among macro products. For now, maintaining flexibility might require sacrificing strong convictions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/USD stays strong near 1.1250, influenced by Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating, which affects the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index continues to fall, sitting close to 100.00. Moody’s downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 highlights worries about the US’s $36 trillion government debt, which could lead to increased capital costs. There are concerns that the US debt situation may worsen, especially with financial bills adding trillions. The strength of the US Dollar is under scrutiny due to unpredictable tariff policies from Washington. Additionally, tensions between the US and China are affecting the Dollar, as China criticizes US trade actions as unfair.

Euro Resilience Supports EUR/USD

The strength of EUR/USD is bolstered by the Euro’s resilience, despite inflation risks in the European Union. The EU’s recent forecast predicts inflation will hit the 2% target by mid-year. The European Central Bank warns about inflation risks, and officials have expressed their concerns. Upcoming HCOB PMI data could further shape market trends, with expectations of growth. Current currency movements indicate Euro strength, especially against the Australian Dollar. Technically, the outlook for EUR/USD is positive, with potential resistance at 1.1425 and support at 1.1000. The 20-day EMA is a key level, and the RSI shows traders are uncertain. With EUR/USD trading comfortably above 1.1250, recent price movements reveal that markets are still adjusting to the implications of the US’s credit rating downgrade. Moody’s shift from Aaa to Aa1 brings new challenges, particularly higher expected borrowing costs for the US. The $36 trillion debt is now a significant concern; markets are weighing how much they can ignore, and patience is running thin. As the US Dollar Index approaches 100, its effects are spreading across asset classes. While this level does not signal a complete breakdown, it represents a noticeable shift from previous strength. The conclusion is clear: global confidence in the US Dollar’s stability is beginning to weaken. This situation is not solely due to Moody’s, although it adds complexity. Washington’s inconsistent stance on tariffs and unpredictable fiscal policies create uncertainty.

Trade Policy Uncertainty

Uncertainty in trade policy is worsening the situation. Tariffs have shifted from being long-term levers to short-term distractions. China has responded strongly, increasing tensions and presenting another factor for markets to consider. The US position could become unstable, impacting broader Dollar sentiment beyond just trade. On the other hand, the Euro is performing better than expected. Resilience in the Eurozone is supported by medium-term inflation expectations. The European Commission projects inflation will reach the 2% target by summer, boosting confidence in the Euro. While inflation isn’t completely under control, cohesive communication from policymakers has helped the Euro avoid the doubts now facing the Dollar. The European Central Bank has adopted a more balanced tone. While it remains concerned about inflation risks, it is not delivering mixed messages. This clarity is crucial for predicting currency strength. The upcoming HCOB PMI numbers will be closely monitored. If they align with expectations and indicate growth, it may further strengthen the Euro, especially as sentiment data has been more positive than anticipated in some member states. Traders focused on technicals will notice that EUR/USD is establishing a clear short-term trend. The 1.1425 level will be a significant test; if it is surpassed, the upward momentum could increase. For now, the 20-day exponential moving average serves as a key indicator of momentum. Traders watching this level should pay attention to price reactions before taking on more risk. Price fluctuations in this range suggest traders are still processing the overall narrative. The Relative Strength Index near neutral indicates a cautious approach. With no strong momentum, sharp moves may occur once the market gains confidence. Until then, making risky trades seems unwise, especially with heightened news risks. One area likely to see more short-term movements for traders is EUR/AUD, where the Euro is showing strength. This illustrates that the Euro’s strength extends beyond its performance against the Dollar. Growing confidence in EU forecasts and potential improvements in regional data are driving investment into the Euro. In the coming weeks, it will be essential to monitor discussions around US fiscal policy and any changes in messaging from Frankfurt. We should regard the ECB’s inflation concerns seriously; if these risks materialize, the supportive narrative for the Euro could weaken. However, for now, the pair is buoyed by US Dollar weakness and moderate support for the Euro. This trend may continue, as long as incoming data does not disrupt expectations significantly. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Mexican Peso is holding steady against the US Dollar after reaching a yearly high. Markets are being cautious as the House prepares to vote on President Trump’s tax bill, which could affect US fiscal policy and debt.

Factors Influencing USD/MXN

The USD/MXN exchange rate is affected by how investors feel about the Dollar, which depends on various US economic factors. The proposed bill to extend tax cuts and introduce new relief measures might increase the federal deficit, putting pressure on the US Dollar. Federal Reserve officials will speak soon, offering insights into future policies amid economic uncertainty. Recent credit downgrades indicate rising credit risks for the US. Meanwhile, Mexico will soon release data on retail sales, inflation, and GDP, while the US will share PMIs and home sales figures. The USD/MXN has dropped to its lowest level since October, falling below the previous support level of 19.30. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 36, indicating increased bearish momentum, with 19.20 as a key support level. If it falls below 19.20, the value could drop further to around 19.11. However, if the Dollar recovers, it may test near 19.47 again. The terms “risk-on” and “risk-off” describe how investors feel about risk. In “risk-on” times, optimism rises, benefiting riskier assets. In “risk-off” times, safe-haven assets like government bonds, gold, and certain currencies do well.

Potential Market Reversals

With the recent movements in the USD/MXN pair and the context of US fiscal changes, the market is sensitive to shifts, especially from policymakers. Concerns over the increasing federal deficit due to new tax measures are putting downward pressure on the Dollar. Consequently, the Dollar’s weakness is becoming a more persistent theme, directly supporting the Peso in the short term. Derivatives traders should pay attention not just to key levels like 19.30 but also the speed and strength of these movements. The drop below 19.30 occurred gradually, which adds weight to the momentum signals. With an RSI around 36, significantly below neutral, it suggests that selling continues without signs of exhaustion. If 19.20 doesn’t hold, the next demand area appears weak until slightly above 19.10, providing a narrow buffer. Any short positions should be managed carefully, as this pair can reverse quickly when market sentiment changes. Powell and his colleagues are expected to provide important guidance on future policies soon, which could lead to increased volatility. Any change in tone—especially regarding balance sheet reduction or interest rates—could quickly shift how investors feel about the Dollar. The Dollar is caught between domestic fiscal growth and high real rates, making any rally attempts vulnerable unless strong US macro data supports them. Meanwhile, attention is shifting to Mexico’s economic data. Retail sales and GDP figures are particularly important this week, given low speculative interest recently. If inflation data comes in below target, it may support Banxico’s current focus on stability. However, surprises in either direction could impact future rate expectations and should be considered in delta hedging strategies. Technically, we shouldn’t overlook reactions around 19.47. The last rejection in that area was due to crowded positioning rather than strong fundamentals. If the Dollar regains short-term buying momentum—possibly from strong US PMI or housing data—the USD/MXN could quickly bounce back. Therefore, any protections against USD strength should account for the potential for rapid rallies. With risk sentiment currently finely balanced and the demand for safe-haven assets suggesting a slight move towards risk-off, the Peso remains supported. However, if duration markets begin to factor in more fiscal stress, we might see a reversal in equity volatility. We are keeping an eye on bond spreads and CDS levels as early indicators. Now is not the time for passive delta exposure; it’s important to watch gamma closely. The market skew remains narrow but can change quickly. The ongoing narrative will continue to depend on policy communication from both Washington and Banxico. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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BYD Company Limited, located in Shenzhen, is a top manufacturer of plug-in electric vehicles, having outpaced Tesla by 2022. In 2023, BYD sold over 3 million new energy vehicles, thanks in part to popular models like the Dolphin. Recently, the stock reached a new all-time high, showing signs of further growth. The monthly Elliott Wave chart for BYD indicates that Waves (I) and (II) are complete, suggesting a breakout for Wave (III). The stock initially rose to 333, then pulled back to 161.70, and eventually increased, with Wave I peaking at 426.60 and Wave II retreating to 309.80, followed by new highs above 161.70. The daily Elliott Wave chart highlights the current rally in Wave (III), featuring smaller nested waves. As the stock advanced, each pullback led to further gains, with Wave I of (III) peaking at 426.60 and a pullback to 309.80. If the price stays above 161.70, more buyers are likely to step in, indicating potential for further increases. Trading in the Foreign Exchange market involves risks. It’s important to think carefully about your investment goals and risk tolerance. Losses can happen, and the performance of BYD’s stock is not guaranteed. BYD’s recent chart activity shows a strong breakout pattern that follows typical Elliott Wave principles, especially the broader five-wave structure often seen in strong upward markets. The earlier wave formations closed decisively, signaling renewed buying interest as the price continues to rise. When Wave (III) is confirmed, it usually shows a more vigorous rally compared to earlier phases, which seems to be occurring now. Examining the daily chart, the nested structure in Wave (III) is clear. These formations often indicate healthy, continued upward movement: each smaller wave rises after a period of stability, creating a step-like rise. The pullback to 309.80 was minor compared to the earlier advance to 426.60, showing that short-term selling did not weaken the overall strength. As long as the structure holds and prices stay above key levels, the chances of progressing further remain high. For those managing short-term positions, it’s wise to analyze the pullbacks within these waves. Entering trades after consolidation phases—rather than during extended rallies—usually provides better risk-reward scenarios. With the stock well above the previous support level of 161.70, this level now serves as a secondary reference point rather than a major concern. Li’s firm has solidly backed this technical perspective with consistent delivery numbers and brand popularity, reinforcing the wave patterns seen on the chart. However, this doesn’t eliminate risk, as volatility can still lead to temporary price changes, especially if market sentiment shifts. Looking ahead, a smart strategy is to trade smaller amounts within the larger trend. The wave count offers a helpful context—it acts like a roadmap, not a guarantee. As long as upward momentum continues, minor corrections should be viewed as opportunities rather than reasons to sell. Spread out your exposure sensibly and reevaluate your position sizes if prices begin to hover near previous support levels. Given the uptrend’s ongoing strength and the alignment of different timeframe structures, trades favoring upward movement remain reasonable. This is especially true with option spreads or staggered entries. Any price movements back toward breakout zones—like just above 309—could serve as temporary bases for accumulating or reducing downside risks. It’s also worth noting that options implied volatility hasn’t surged much despite the recent highs. This indicates that the market isn’t yet accounting for significant directional risks—either a correction or excessive optimism. This keeps theta decay manageable for long positions held as part of trend-following strategies. Being aware of these dynamics will be beneficial as the market structure evolves over the coming weeks.

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Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) is a healthcare company that creates, makes, and sells medical devices in various specialties. It trades on the NYSE with the ticker “BSX” and has two main divisions: MedSurg and Cardiovascular. These divisions offer solutions for diagnosing, treating, and remotely managing patients. Currently, BSX is recovering from a low of $85.98 and expects to grow further, aiming for a price range of $112.20 to $120.29. Weekly charts show a significant low at $24.10 in March 2020, and another low at $34.98 in June 2022. The company believes it will keep rising after overcoming a temporary setback.

Currency Exchange and Trends

The AUD/USD has fallen below 0.6400, despite weakness in the US Dollar, due to a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and worries about trade tensions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is gaining strength, approaching 1.1300 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure from trade concerns and economic worries. Gold prices have increased to over $3,280 per ounce, helped by a weaker dollar and a cautious market. The cryptocurrency market is also trending positively, with altcoins like Aave (AAVE), Curve DAO (CRV), and Jito (JTO) rising alongside Bitcoin. However, China’s economic activity has slowed, as retail sales and fixed-asset investment fell short of expectations. In the stock market, Boston Scientific’s positive chart patterns indicate strong upward movement from the $85.98 level. Analysts point out the significant low of $24.10 in early 2020, which triggered a larger upward trend labeled (III). The drop to $34.98 in mid-2022 marks the II of (III) phase, and the bullish trend has continued since then. If this momentum persists, reaching the $112.20–$120.29 target appears achievable, though a brief pause may occur. For those involved in options or futures related to BSX, it’s important to watch changes in implied volatility and near-term resistance levels. These factors affect delta-adjusted exposure and may require adjustments in contracts or hedging strategies. Trading volume and open interest near the higher end of the target can provide insights on whether the upward trend will continue or slow down.

Global Economic Indicators and Impact

Shifting to broader economic trends, the drop in AUD/USD below the 0.6400 level seems more linked to local issues rather than general dollar weakness. The Reserve Bank’s softer stance has reduced demand for the Aussie, and rising trade risks with China have made traders more cautious. There hasn’t been a single economic report that caused this decline; instead, it’s a shift in overall expectations. Conversely, EUR/USD strength has come as the US Dollar weakened amid skepticism about the sustainability of the US economy’s strength. The euro’s rise towards 1.1300 indicates that traders are adjusting their views on the dollar’s relative strength, seeking clarity on inflation and interest rates. Similarly, commodities have reacted to these changes. Gold has climbed above $3,280 per ounce, driven by lower dollar yields and a desire for safety. Strong gold prices contribute to future inflation expectations and provide indirect support to sectors linked to precious metals. In the digital asset space, cryptocurrencies like Aave and Jito are gaining traction, partly due to Bitcoin’s renewed strength. Improved sentiment in this market likely comes from increasing institutional interest and clearer regulations. These trends can signal broader risk appetite beyond traditional investments. However, there’s concerning news from China, where key data—like retail and infrastructure investment—has fallen short, indicating that stimulus efforts have not yet rebuilt confidence. This pattern suggests deeper issues that may take time to resolve. Given these factors, it’s crucial to remain flexible. Watch for shifts between asset classes, especially as portfolio managers adjust their holdings at quarter-end. Movements in equity-related derivatives, FX options, and ETF trading volumes may offer short-term insights. Market expectations are mixed, making it important to align signals when managing positions with imminent expirations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EQT Corporation has found a promising opportunity in the 2023 Blue Box Area, pushing the stock closer to new heights. Analysis using the Elliott Wave framework suggests there are several paths for ongoing growth. Starting from its low in 2020, EQT reached a high of $51.97 in wave (I) before dropping to $28.11 in wave (II). The stock’s upward movement indicates that wave (III) is underway, aiming for a target between $57.75 and $64.74 based on Fibonacci extensions. Once the stock hits this target area, a pullback in wave (II) may create new buying chances. The long-term goal is for the stock to rise between $76 and $105, as indicated by Grand Super Cycle analysis. Traders can look for daily and weekly corrections to find entry points, ideally after completing three, seven, or eleven swings. Using the extreme Blue Box system can help improve the accuracy of these entries. This article emphasizes the complexity and risks involved in forex trading. It’s crucial for traders to assess their goals and risks before participating, as market forecasts are never guaranteed. The advice here is given in good faith, stressing the importance of considering risks and seeking independent financial guidance. EQT’s stock performance since 2020 is best understood through the Elliott Wave model. The impulsive rise from the pandemic low to the $50s greatly illustrates this. The first wave peaked at $51.97, followed by a significant correction down to $28.11. This decrease aligns with a typical second wave pattern, which has since seen the share price rise sharply. We’ve identified the recent uptrend as part of wave (III), with the stock now approaching the Fibonacci extension targets of $57.75 to $64.74. These levels, derived from Fibonacci calculations, are used to establish objective reference points based on previous wave lengths. When the price reaches this target, it might experience a temporary pause or slight drop into another correction phase, likely termed wave II of a higher-order sequence. For those engaged in leveraged positions or options strategies, a correction into wave II could be a good opportunity to consider entry. This should be done cautiously and prepared for the right patterns to develop. Ideally, this would follow either three, seven, or eleven swings, which are standard corrective counts in wave theory. Completing any of these patterns indicates a near-term move’s exhaustion and creates a higher probability for potential gains. Thomson’s approach, especially when used alongside tools like the extreme Blue Box system, provides a reliable method for entry points. It’s best to look for entries based on this rather than purely directional predictions. Blue Box zones are derived from specific movements and indicate areas where price reactions are statistically more probable. While timing may not be precise, risk management becomes clearer when trades are planned within these calculated areas. In the long term, the Grand Super Cycle perspective supports the possibility of higher targets between $76 and $105, though this outcome isn’t immediate. Such a rise would reflect the larger upward trend, meaning that a retracement in wave II would be seen as just a pause, not the end of a bull market. If this trend continues, it opens the door for repeated entries following each corrective phase. In the short term, traders can use weekly and daily charts to find opportunities to enter or adjust their positions, particularly during pauses in price movement. These pullbacks should be approached carefully, with measured entries based on confirmations rather than chasing after breakout spikes. Finally, it’s important to remember that while these setups come with certain probabilities, they do not guarantee success. This is a key takeaway: even with a precise technical framework, no trade is risk-free. We operate on advantages and informed strategies while balancing them with clear plans to disengage if our predictions fail. Setting these parameters is vital, particularly for those dealing with derivatives, where factors like decay and timing greatly influence outcomes compared to unleveraged assets. Financial markets remain unpredictable and detached from theories or traders’ opinions. Thus, we adhere to well-defined strategies, reducing uncertainty and allowing for disciplined adjustments.

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Eurozone consumer confidence in May rose to -15.2, beating the expected -16. This suggests that consumers are feeling more optimistic than previously thought. The AUD/USD dropped below 0.6400, even though the US Dollar was weak. This decline reflects concerns from a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and renewed trade worries. On the other hand, EUR/USD remained strong, approaching 1.1300 as the US Dollar weakened due to trade and economic issues.

Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends

Gold prices surged above $3,280 per troy ounce, driven by a decline in the US Dollar and a cautious market mood. In the cryptocurrency market, altcoins like Aave, Curve DAO, and Jito showed positive trends along with Bitcoin. China faced a slowdown in April, affected by trade war uncertainties that hurt consumer confidence. Retail sales and fixed-asset investments fell short of expectations, although the manufacturing sector remained strong. For those trading EUR/USD in 2025, recommended brokers offer competitive spreads and quick execution. This list is suitable for both beginners and experienced traders, helping them navigate the forex market effectively. The increase in Eurozone consumer confidence, from an expected -16 to -15.2, might seem small at first. However, it shows a slight but real sense of cautious optimism among households in the region. People are anticipating more stability, likely due to recent improvements in wage growth or lessening inflation. In trading, this is likely to support steady EUR-backed flows, especially for shorter-term trades. A slight upturn in sentiment can lower risks in markets sensitive to demand.

Currency Movements and Market Dynamics

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar struggled, falling below 0.6400 against the US Dollar. This weakness persists despite a softer US Dollar, indicating strong domestic pressures. The Reserve Bank’s dovish approach offered little support. There were no signs of rate changes to address local issues, and renewed trade concerns have created anxiety among exporters and importers. For those monitoring option pricing and trends, this situation may present opportunities for better entries, especially in the short term. The Euro continues to rise against the US Dollar, approaching 1.1300. This surge is not just due to European strength but is also driven by the US Dollar’s inherent weakness. The decline in US sentiment is linked to growing uncertainty regarding domestic policy and global trade. This volatility may invite call-side strategies, but we must remain cautious, as even small US data surprises can impact EUR/USD significantly. In commodities, gold is gaining attention. Prices have risen above $3,280 per ounce, mainly due to pressure on the US Dollar rather than a spike in physical demand. Investors are seeking safety, likely in response to current equity valuations or geopolitical concerns. We believe this trend should be approached by examining shifts in implied volatility for gold instruments, paying attention to volume in longer-dated contracts as seasonal patterns become relevant. In the cryptocurrency market, altcoins such as Jito and Curve DAO continue to receive support along with Bitcoin. This interest seems genuine, with renewed enthusiasm from major investors and short-term traders responding to market signals. Monitoring the spread between related tokens and volatility in perpetual contracts may help manage exposure effectively. For some, now might be a time to rebalance rather than overextend. In China, April data showed a mixed situation. Consumers are pulling back somewhat, which is not surprising given ongoing international tensions. It’s not just the dip in retail sales that matters, but also the overall decline in asset investment and spending. However, factory output remains robust, indicating potential support from targeted policies or improved exports in certain sectors. This contrast highlights a noteworthy divergence between falling consumer sentiment and rising manufacturing performance, which could affect yuan-based pairs and industrial derivatives. Lastly, the suggested brokers for EUR/USD heading into 2025 emphasize the infrastructure supporting these transactions. Fast execution and tight spreads are crucial, especially when volatility decreases and spreads tighten due to softer macro data or stagnant central bank actions. Having a range of options, including alternative venues, can help us stay agile when market momentum slows. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading at about $32.60, bouncing back from earlier lows of around $32.13 after two days of losses. This rise is boosted by a weaker US Dollar and strong demand for industrial metals, even with decreasing geopolitical tensions. Recently, positive steps in global politics have reduced silver’s appeal as a safe haven. Ongoing discussions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a truce between the US and China, have helped ease trade tensions. Still, silver benefits from solid industrial demand, with forecasts predicting usage will exceed 700 million ounces by 2025, driven by industries like electric vehicles and solar panels. At the same time, the US Dollar Index is close to 100.00, hitting a weekly low after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Worries about US government debt and budget deficits have made bondholders more cautious, putting pressure on the Dollar and benefiting Dollar-priced commodities like silver. From a technical standpoint, silver is moving within a symmetrical triangle pattern, finding support around $32.00 and facing resistance from descending trendlines. The 21-day EMA is at $32.56 and the RSI is at 50, showing mixed signals, while MACD shows a possible bullish crossover. If silver rises above $33.00, it could reach $34.00. However, a drop below $32.00 may push prices to the $31.00–$30.75 range. Considering the recent move to $32.60 from $32.13, we see a short-term bounce, although the bigger picture remains uncertain. The recent two-day decline has paused for now, supported by a softer US Dollar and consistent industrial demand. However, underlying factors are more complex. While geopolitical tensions are easing—often a negative sign for metals like silver—industrial activity remains strong. The ongoing shift toward cleaner technologies continues to drive silver demand. The forecast of over 700 million ounces needed by 2025 reinforces that this is not just an investment trend but reflects actual market needs. Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 is impacting the stability of the Dollar, which has caused silver prices to rise. Investors are becoming more concerned about US government debt levels, maintaining the USD Index near 100.00. A weaker Dollar typically benefits metals priced in Dollars, making them cheaper for non-Dollar buyers. Technically, we’re seeing silver consolidate rather than trend decisively. The symmetrical triangle indicates that neither the bulls nor the bears have gained full control. Support remains around $32.00, and resistance from trendlines is tightening. The price near the 21-day moving average at $32.56 deserves attention—it’s close to the current price, and the RSI is neutral at 50. However, the MACD is hinting at a potential bullish crossover, which could signal a shift in momentum. For traders, if silver surpasses $33.00, it may push prices toward $34.00, creating opportunities for breakout strategies. Conversely, if it drops below $32.00, it could lead to further declines to $31.00 or even $30.75, particularly if broader market forces remain unfavorable. Let’s remain vigilant around resistance areas, while also recognizing the strength from industrial demand. Movements near the triangle boundaries will need careful observation, especially as volatility may increase. Near-term strategies should consider a wider trading range, not just the extremes.

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