David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, stated that the likelihood of a recession in the United States by 2025 is low, yet still exists. He emphasised the role of fiscal spending in stimulating economic growth.
Solomon’s remarks suggest that while the risk of an economic downturn remains, government spending is helping to keep growth steady. This implies that markets may continue to find support in public expenditure, reducing the chances of a severe slowdown.
Impact Of Fiscal Policies
However, if fiscal policies were to shift or diminish, the outlook could change quickly. Traders calculating future trends must weigh the possibility of policy adjustments alongside broader market movements. While uncertainty exists, current conditions may still allow for stable market expansion.
Inflation remains another variable. Persistent price pressures could lead to tighter monetary policy, affecting borrowing costs and liquidity. If inflation stays elevated, interest rates may not decline as quickly as some expect. That would influence asset valuations and market sentiment.
Solomon’s outlook aligns with the broader view that while systemic risks exist, markets are not necessarily headed towards rapid contraction. Continued vigilance is necessary, as any policy missteps or unexpected economic developments could alter current conditions.
Role Of Government Measures
For now, government measures continue to play a role in sustaining demand. Monitoring changes in fiscal action and central bank policies will be essential in determining how markets adjust in the coming weeks.
With uncertainty reflecting in gold’s price movements, traders pushed the metal back towards the $2,900 level after it briefly dipped to $2,830. The 10-year Treasury note yield also dropped to 4.176%, marking its lowest point since the final month of 2024. A sustained close above $2,900 may allow an attempt at the year’s high of $2,954, making resistance levels essential to watch. If the rally falters, support levels around $2,877 and $2,864 from mid-February could come into focus. The broader upward trend appears intact unless a sharp move below $2,800 materialises.
Tariffs And Their Economic Impact
Tariffs remain a divisive tool in economic policy. While they aim to protect domestic industries by discouraging reliance on imports, they also carry the risk of inflating prices and provoking retaliatory measures. Unlike typical consumption taxes, which apply at the point of sale, tariffs must be settled upon entry of goods into a country. The economic debate surrounding these measures persists, with contrasting views on their effectiveness.
Japan’s finance minister, Kato, clarified that the country is not aiming to devalue the yen. He confirmed discussions with US Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding their approach to foreign exchange matters.
For the last ten years, Japanese authorities have upheld a very loose monetary policy to address deflation and low inflation levels. They consider the weak yen a by-product of these measures.
Monetary Policy And Inflation
This approach has resulted in inflation creeping back, though authorities insist their actions are not intended to weaken the currency. Rather, they maintain that monetary easing was necessary after years of stagnation. The yen’s current position is seen as a consequence rather than a target, which is why Kato has been clear in stating that engineered devaluation is not the goal.
Markets have been paying close attention to these remarks, particularly since Japan has a history of intervening when exchange rate shifts become disruptive. The conversation with Bessent suggests that Tokyo wants to prevent excessive speculation or volatility, but without appearing to manipulate the market deliberately. Given past instances of central bank involvement, traders should be mindful of any comments from officials that hint at further intervention.
The ultra-loose policy of recent years has played a key role in shaping Japan’s economic conditions. While inflation has picked up, wage growth has not kept pace, making it difficult for policymakers to tighten financial conditions too aggressively. This balance will be watched closely, especially as global markets assess whether Japan will move away from its long-standing approach.
Kato’s statements serve as a reminder that while policymakers acknowledge yen weakness, they are unlikely to take steps purely for currency management. Instead, their focus remains on broader economic goals, with exchange rates being managed only when absolutely necessary. Market participants will need to evaluate whether authorities believe conditions are getting out of hand.
Market Intervention And Volatility
It is worth remembering that previous interventions have typically been aimed at halting excessive movements rather than sustaining a particular level. The call with Bessent indicates that discussions with international counterparts are ongoing, reinforcing the possibility of coordinated action should volatility rise too much.
With this in mind, those watching these developments must remain alert for shifts in messaging from officials, particularly if the yen moves toward levels that previously triggered responses. Any signs that policymakers are growing uncomfortable with market behaviour could prompt action, especially if discussions with international counterparts signal broader approval of such steps.
South Korea’s service sector output declined from 1.7% to -0.8% in January. This marks a notable downturn in economic performance for the sector.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is currently near 0.6200 amid concerns over the US-China trade conflict, following dovish statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Concurrently, Gold prices remain under pressure below $2,900 as market sentiment turns risk-averse due to escalating tariffs.
In cryptocurrency, Ethereum saw a 16% drop, hitting $2,100 after earlier gains. Market anxiety increases as traders prepare for important economic data releases alongside ongoing tariff discussions.
South Korea Economic Concerns
This downturn in South Korea’s service sector output suggests a weakening in domestic demand. A fall from 1.7% to -0.8% is not just a fluctuation—it indicates contracting activity. If this continues, it could mean lower consumer spending and possible knock-on effects for other sectors. Those monitoring economic conditions should take note, as this could affect broader market sentiment, particularly within Asian equities and currency markets.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hovering near 0.6200 reflects market uncertainty. The dovish stance from policymakers in Australia suggests that interest rate cuts remain on the table. Combine that with trade tensions between the US and China, and it’s understandable why market participants remain cautious. Any further escalation in tariffs could hit Australia’s export-driven economy hard, exerting more pressure on its currency. Traders following this market should watch for upcoming economic data releases that could either support a recovery or drive further weakness.
Gold prices struggling below $2,900 show that traders are hesitant to take refuge in safe-haven assets despite rising trade risks. Normally, deteriorating risk sentiment would push prices higher, but the current market climate suggests a different dynamic at play. Factors like shifts in bond yields, central bank policies, and inflation expectations should be closely monitored to determine whether a rebound is likely.
Ethereum Market Volatility
Ethereum’s sharp decline of 16% to $2,100 follows a period of gains, highlighting the volatility in cryptocurrency markets. Sentiment remains fragile as investors remain wary ahead of upcoming data releases and discussions around tariffs. If risk aversion deepens, further downside pressure could emerge. Traders should remain alert for shifts in liquidity, as sudden volatility could create both risks and opportunities in the coming weeks.
Japan’s unemployment rate in January is reported at 2.5%, which exceeds the expected 2.4%, matching the previous rate of 2.4%.
The job-to-applicant ratio is recorded at 1.26, slightly above the anticipated 1.25, with the earlier figure also at 1.25.
Labour Market Trends
This labour market data emerges during discussions on potential challenges facing Japan’s economy, particularly in relation to political comments about currency values.
The latest labour figures suggest a workforce that remains tight but is not advancing beyond earlier levels. With unemployment rising above predictions and holding steady from the last report, there is no clear indication of escalating distress, yet no momentum in improvement either. Job availability shows a marginal increase, hinting at steady hiring demand, though not by a wide margin.
These numbers surface while key policymakers continue to make their stance on foreign exchange known. Recent statements from government officials have drawn particular attention from those tracking monetary policy and its potential influence on capital movements. Markets are watching closely how authorities may respond to shifts in the yen’s value.
Market Reactions And Outlook
While employment data alone does not dictate short-term price swings, it does factor into broader projections for central bank actions. When combined with policymakers’ rhetoric on currency levels, it becomes a variable that shapes expectations for potential intervention or rate adjustments.
As attention turns to upcoming economic reports, there will be a focus on whether wages reflect the same steadiness observed in hiring trends. If labour demand holds firm but household earnings do not rise at a comparable pace, it could reinforce certain views on consumer spending and inflationary pressures in the months ahead.
Bond and currency markets are absorbing this release alongside expectations for monetary adjustments elsewhere. With other major central banks weighing their own next steps, any divergence in interest rate outlooks becomes even more relevant. Traders will likely reassess risk exposure as further economic indicators emerge, particularly given the ongoing discussions around policy flexibility.
Pelan tarif terbaru Presiden Trump- 25% ke atas import Kanada dan Mexico, 10% ke atas barang China, dan cukai 10% yang lebih ketat ke atas minyak Kanada telah menggoncang pasaran. Ini bukan sekadar angka di atas kertas polisi, tetapi merupakan tekanan ke atas sistem yang sudah goyah. Tindakan ini mencetuskan reaksi merentas kelas aset utama, dan pasaran sedang mengalami konflik sementara pedagang menilai langkah seterusnya.
President Donald Trump’s tariff threats once again lifted the dollar last week, but a growing group of investors is betting against the greenback amid signs the economy is cooling and on concern a trade war will weaken it further https://t.co/wZbdRZ7259
US Dollar Index (USDX) meningkat 1.28% ke 109.75 dengan pembelian pedagang, tindakan refleks klasik dengan peningkatan ketakpastian, kali ini dipacu ketegangan tarif baru, perubahan jangkaan Fed, dan pasaran ekuiti yang berhati-hati di ambang rintangan.
Dolar yang kuat memiliki kebaikan dan keburukan. Di satu sisi, ia melambangkan keyakinan terhadap ekonomi AS. Di sisi lain, ia menjadikan eksport AS lebih mahal, mengikis daya saing perdagangan. Jika tarif kekal dan rakan perdagangan membalas, dolar mungkin terus kukuh, tetapi kekuatan ini ada harganya. Inflasi? Mungkin tidak, tetapi tekanan ke atas pendapatan korporat? Ini adalah senario yang mungkin berlaku.
S&P 500 (SP500) pula melalui ribut ini seperti kapal di lautan bergelora. Indeks luas ini mengemudi perdagangan tidak menentu, dengan anggaran Goldman Sachs bahawa setiap kenaikan 5% tarif mengurangkan 1-2% pendapatan sesaham korporat. Ini bukan jumlah kecil. Kesan 5% ke atas pendapatan boleh merebak merentas sektor, dan syarikat yang bergantung kepada rantaian bekalan global, seperti teknologi, automotif, dan industri akan merasainya dahulu. Pedagang belum menonjolkan perasaan panik, tetapi suasana berhati-hati jelas terasa. Jika mampatan pendapatan muncul dalam laporan akan datang, pasaran mungkin menilai semula risiko lebih pantas.
Sementara itu, emas (XAUUSD) bergerak sebagai lindung nilai utama terhadap ketakpastian. Logam kuning ini melonjak lebih 7% sejak 20 Januari, mencecah $2,942.70 per auns. Ini bukan sekadar pembelian perlindungan nilai, kerana ia juga merupakan lindung nilai terhadap turun naik mata wang dan tekanan inflasi yang mungkin timbul jika gangguan perdagangan berlanjutan. Jika S&P mula menurun dan kekuatan dolar goyah di bawah ketkpastian polisi, emas mungkin terus meningkat. Tetapi jika pedagang percaya tarif tidak akan meningkat, premium keselamatan ini mungkin berkurangan.
Prestasi Pasaran Minggu Ini
Minggu lepas, pasaran kewangan terperangkap dalam keseimbangan rapuh. Dengan bayangan polisi tarif Trump, pedagang menyemak semula strategi sambil memantau paras teknikal utama untuk isyarat pergerakan seterusnya.
US Dollar Index (USDX) terus mendaki ke 107.60. Dengan sentimen pasaran memihak aset perlindungan nilai, dolar mungkin terus naik jika ia mengekalkan paras konsolidasi utama.
Pedagang akan memantau 107.25 dan 106.50; jika zon ini bertahan, kenaikan baru mungkin berlaku. Namun, sebarang pecahan di bawah paras ini mungkin menandakan kehilangan momentum, membuka ruang untuk pembetulan.
Dalam ekuiti, S&P 500 (SP500) bergerak sekitar paras 5,950—zon kritikal yang dipantau untuk peralihan momentum.
Walau bagaimanapun, kenaikan ke paras ini bersifat impulsif, mencetuskan sikah berhati-hati untuk posisi menjual. Jika indeks pecah lebih tinggi, 6,020 akan menjadi zon rintangan. Jika penjual masuk, pembetulan ke paras lebih rendah mungkin berlaku, menandakan tempoh penyejukan selepas minggu kenaikan.
Emas (XAU/USD) kekal menjadi tumpuan selepas menguji paras rendah 2,834.20 sebelum melantun. Paras 2,875 kini menjadi rintangan utama penentu hala tuju seterusnya.
Jika pembeli mengekalkan kawalan, kenaikan mungkin berterusan, terutamanya dengan keresahan pasaran memihak aset selamat. Namun, penolakan di rintangan mungkin mencetuskan penurunan semula.
Dalam kripto, Bitcoin (BTC) bergerak aktif selepas melantun dari paras bawah julat 80,000. Pecahan di atas 90,000 dengan penggantungan kukuh boleh menarik pembeli baru. Namun, jika penjual kembali menguasai, sokongan seterusnya berada di sekitar 74,000, paras di mana bulls mungkin mempertahankan penurunan lanjut.
Untuk pedagang forex, EUR/USD menjatuhkan paras rendah 1.03726, mencadangkan momentum menaik. Namun, pedagang akan memantau pergerakan menurun di 1.0405 dan 1.0465. GBP/USD menghampiri 1.2660, di mana penjual mungkin masuk. USD/JPY mungkin menguji 151.70, dan jika ia bergerak mendatar, kenaikan mungkin berterusan sekitar 149.50.
Komoditi juga menunjukkan pergerakan kritikal. Minyak mentah (USOIL) menaik dengan 71.00 dan 72.45 sebagai rintangan utama. Gas asli mungkin melantun di 3.72 jika harga turun.
Peristiwa Minggu Ini
Selasa, 4 Mac, membawa ucapan penting daripada Gabenor Bank of Japan, Ueda. Dengan pasangan USD/JPY berada dalam fasa konsolidasi, pedagang akan memerhatikan sebarang petunjuk mengenai perubahan polisi. Jika Gabenor Ueda memberi isyarat sikap yang lebih tegas mengenai pengetatan monetari, yen boleh mendapat momentum, memberi tekanan menurun pada USD/JPY.
Rabu, 5 Mac, menampilkan tiga data penting yang menggerakkan pasaran. GDP Australia (q/q) dijangka berada pada 0.50%, naik daripada 0.30% sebelumnya. Jika ramalan ini betul, ia akan mengukuhkan optimisme terhadap ekonomi Australia, memberi AUD/USD potensi kenaikan jangka pendek sebelum menghadapi rintangan pada tahap yang lebih tinggi. CPI Swiss (m/m) juga diunjurkan pada 0.50%, meningkat daripada -0.10%. Angka inflasi yang lebih kuat daripada yang dijangka boleh menyokong CHF, yang boleh menyebabkan kelemahan dalam USD/CHF. Sementara itu, di AS, ISM Services PMI dijangka meningkat sedikit kepada 53.0 daripada 52.8. Bacaan yang lebih kuat kemungkinan akan menyokong dolar, terutamanya jika ia menunjukkan ketahanan dalam sektor perkhidmatan.
Pada Khamis, 6 Mac, Main Refinancing Rate European Central Bank dijangka menurun kepada 2.65% daripada 2.90%. Pemotongan kadar atau retorik dovish boleh memberi tekanan kepada EUR/USD, membuka peluang untuk pergerakan menurun selanjutnya. Pedagang akan menilai sama ada ECB memberi isyarat kitaran pelonggaran jangka panjang atau mengekalkan pandangan berhati-hati terhadap inflasi.
Jumaat, 7 Mac, menyampaikan acara berimpak tinggi: laporan Non-Farm Payroll AS. Pasaran menjangkakan 156K pekerjaan baharu, naik daripada 143K sebelumnya, manakala kadar pengangguran dijangka kekal pada 4.00%. Jika pasaran buruh menunjukkan peningkatan, jangkaan untuk Federal Reserve yang lebih hawkish boleh muncul semula, memperkuatkan dolar AS dan memberi tekanan kepada ekuiti. Walau bagaimanapun, laporan yang lebih lemah daripada yang dijangka boleh mencetuskan kebimbangan tentang kelembapan ekonomi, berpotensi menekan dolar dan mendorong kenaikan harga emas.
Dengan pasaran yang cemas dan perubahan polisi yang menulis semula strategi, pedagang perlu kekal berwaspada. Apabila ancaman tarif Presiden Trump terus berkembang dan ekonomi global beralih untuk menyesuaikan diri, skala kekal dalam keadaan berubah. Data pekerjaan AS minggu ini, keputusan kadar ECB, dan data inflasi baharu akan menguji ketahanan pasaran.
South Korea’s industrial output registered a growth of -2.3% in January, improving from earlier expectations of -3.1%. This data reflects the continuing challenges faced by the country’s manufacturing sector.
The negative growth trend has implications for economic recovery, as industrial output is a key indicator of economic health. It suggests that South Korea’s economy may still be grappling with various pressures that affect production and supply chains.
Manufacturing Sector Challenges
A contraction of 2.3% in South Korea’s industrial output for January indicates continuing strain on the manufacturing sector, though it is slightly better than the forecasted -3.1%. This small improvement suggests that the worst concerns about factory activity did not materialise. Nevertheless, a negative trend in output reflects ongoing difficulties for producers. Manufacturing remains under pressure from factors such as weak external demand and global supply chain disruptions, both of which have weighed on production levels.
From an economic standpoint, this data reinforces concerns that South Korea’s broader recovery may still be facing obstacles. Industrial output is closely linked to economic momentum, meaning that if factories continue cutting production, it could have broader effects on employment and investment. With the country heavily reliant on exports, weaker global conditions may continue to suppress manufacturing in the months ahead.
For those trading derivatives based on economic indicators, this data reinforces short-term caution. The improvement over forecasts may provide some relief, but the overall downward trend suggests that risks persist. While output could rebound in the coming months, much depends on external demand improving and supply chain constraints easing.
Future Economic Outlook
Monitoring upcoming economic releases will be key to identifying whether this contraction stabilises or deepens further.
The Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker has experienced a sharp decline, currently sitting at -2.8%. This represents one of the steepest drops recorded for the index.
In just two business days, there was a remarkable 5 percentage point decline, indicating a rapid collapse. The upcoming update on the tracker is expected on Thursday.
Rapid Deterioration In Economic Expectations
This drop reflects a rapid deterioration in economic expectations. A decline of this scale over such a short span suggests that underlying economic conditions have worsened more quickly than previously anticipated.
When looking at past movements in the tracker, shifts of this magnitude have often coincided with downturns in consumption, slowing industrial production, or weakening private investment. The timing of this drop raises questions about whether recent data releases have strongly altered growth projections or if adjustments in forecasting models have amplified the move.
Considering changes of this scale, markets may begin reassessing interest rate assumptions. If economic momentum is slowing this rapidly, prior expectations around monetary policy could become outdated, prompting adjustments among those with exposure to rate-sensitive instruments. The next update on Thursday will offer further clarity, but for now, the severity of this contraction suggests that any previous optimism about growth may need revision.
Market Reactions And Policy Considerations
Elsewhere, the bond market has already begun reacting. Yields have moved, reflecting shifts in sentiment around economic resilience. If trends continue in this direction, further repricing across fixed income and equities may follow. Movements of this size rarely go unnoticed, and traders will be watching closely to see if the data confirms initial reactions or introduces further volatility.
The coming days will be critical in determining whether this decline marks the beginning of a sustained trend or merely reflects short-term distortions in recent economic reports. How policymakers respond—if at all—also remains a question.
In January, South Korea’s industrial output year-on-year decreased by 4.1%, falling short of the expected decline of 2%. This performance reflects underlying economic challenges faced by the country.
The AUD/USD remains under pressure near 0.6200 as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish sentiments highlight potential economic risks. Trade tensions between the US and China further complicate the situation for the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY has rebounded to 149.00, buoyed by heightened demand for the US Dollar amid risk aversion. However, concerns surrounding interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan keep the Japanese Yen relatively strong.
Gold Prices And Trade Disputes
Gold prices are stabilising below $2,900 amid fears of an escalating global tariff war. The ongoing tariff disputes intensify volatility in the market dynamics, influencing investment decisions.
Ethereum’s price fell 16% to $2,100, facing resistance at $1.8 billion. Tariff developments have dampened previously bullish sentiments regarding the cryptocurrency market.
Market observers are anticipating significant data releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls, as global economic tensions remain high. Stakeholders are urged to approach trading with caution due to the prevailing risks.
The decline in South Korea’s industrial output, exceeding initial forecasts, highlights deeper economic difficulties. A contraction of 4.1% rather than the predicted 2% points to underlying structural weaknesses or deteriorating external conditions. It suggests reduced production activity, likely influenced by weaker global demand or domestic slowdowns. Traders involved with assets linked to this market should exercise restraint. If this trend persists, it could impact broader sentiment toward other export-heavy economies.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remains under downward pressure, hovering near 0.6200. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s softer stance on monetary policy has raised concerns about future economic momentum. At the same time, unresolved trade tensions between the US and China only add to the strain. This combination leaves little room for optimism in the short term. If risk appetite weakens further, we would expect additional selling pressure. Those watching commodity-backed currencies should monitor developments closely, as external forces appear to be dictating much of the movement.
The US dollar remains firm against the yen, with USD/JPY climbing back to 149.00. The air of caution in the broader economy has increased demand for the greenback, reinforcing its strength. However, speculation over possible rate hikes from the Bank of Japan ensures that the yen does not weaken too much. Investors could see heightened volatility in this pair in the coming sessions as the narrative shifts between economic uncertainty and monetary policy expectations. Timing positioning here will be key.
Gold prices have settled below $2,900, with global trade disputes driving uncertainty. A potential escalation in tariff policies fuels caution, keeping the outlook for the metal uncertain. Such tensions tend to inject instability into markets, influencing demand for safe-haven assets. If trade policies turn more restrictive, traders could see stronger movements in gold prices as investors seek shelter. The ongoing situation around tariffs will be a key factor to watch.
Ethereum has taken a hard hit, falling 16% to $2,100, retreating after encountering resistance near $1.8 billion in trading volume. Previously bullish momentum in the crypto sector has been shaken by unfavourable tariff news, dampening appetite for riskier investments. Those engaged in this market should consider adjusting exposure accordingly, as external policies continue to weigh on confidence. The sector remains unpredictable, and sentiment can shift rapidly with policy shifts.
Market Anticipation And Economic Data
Markets are bracing for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls data amid ongoing global uncertainty. In times of heightened risk, caution is a necessary approach for those participating in high-leverage trading. Economic conditions remain fragile, making it vital to assess positions carefully in the sessions ahead.
In January 2025, New Zealand’s Building Consents rose by 2.6% compared to December, following a previous 5.6% decline. Year-on-year, however, there was a decrease of 7.2%.
The NZD/USD exchange rate has been more affected by global events, particularly recent announcements from Trump, rather than local economic data. At present, the NZD/USD is approximately 0.5618.
Construction Sector Trends
This latest rise in New Zealand’s building consents follows a sharp drop in the previous month, reflecting some recovery in the construction sector. The annual decline of 7.2%, however, shows wider weaknesses that have persisted despite the monthly gain. Housing demand, borrowing costs, and developer sentiment will continue to shape upcoming figures, with broader economic conditions influencing whether this month’s improvement is temporary or the beginning of a more sustained trend.
At the same time, the New Zealand dollar has largely moved in response to political developments abroad rather than domestic data. Recent comments from Trump have taken precedence over local economic figures, reinforcing the idea that external forces are playing a larger role in shaping exchange rate movements. The NZD/USD currently stands near 0.5618, a level that reflects these ongoing pressures.
For those analysing derivatives, keeping close watch on external political factors remains key. Market reactions to announcements from Trump have shown they can directly impact movements in the pair, overriding economic indicators from New Zealand. Any further developments in this area are likely to continue steering momentum.
Impact Of Geopolitical Events
Although domestic construction data has shown a short-term rebound, the yearly decline hints at underlying softness. This divergence between monthly and annual figures suggests that while the sector may see intermittent improvements, the long-term picture remains uncertain. Exchange rate volatility, particularly from political triggers, adds another layer of complexity, reinforcing the need for a broader view when evaluating near-term moves.
Staying reactive to geopolitical updates, while not losing sight of local conditions, is essential. The strength of the NZD has already shown sensitivity to external shifts, and this pattern is unlikely to change in the coming weeks. Careful monitoring of the next statements from Trump, alongside any adjustments in investor sentiment, will be required to anticipate further fluctuations.
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