US equities rise amid political uncertainty as S&P 500 gains from better-than-expected earnings
An unexpected twist in the SP500 Elliott Wave analysis, but progress continues as expected.
Target Levels And Divergence
The 3rd wave usually targets a 123.6-138.2% extension of the 1st wave, which we now expect between 7185-7235. This aligns with the 161.8% extension at 7218. Currently, there is no divergence between the Advancing/Declining line and the price, making a bearish outlook hard to support, even with the emerging ending diagonal. Once this pattern is completed, we anticipate a multi-month correction down to around 5800 +/- 300 before aiming for over 8100. The recent drop in the S&P 500 from its January 12 high of 6986 has altered our outlook. We now think the market is forming a more complicated, overlapping pattern called an ending diagonal, suggesting a bumpy final push higher rather than a straightforward rise. This perspective is backed by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has stayed relatively low, around 15, even during last week’s dip to 6789. There are no signs of widespread panic in the market, indicating that the recent dip may be a temporary setback rather than a strong trend reversal. This decline followed an unexpectedly high inflation report from early January 2026, which briefly lowered expectations for a more lenient Federal Reserve. In the coming weeks, it’s vital to monitor key price levels to manage risk. A drop below last week’s low of 6789 would signal a serious warning to reduce bullish positions. The crucial support levels to watch are the December 2025 low of 6720 and the November 2025 low of 6521.Market Participation And Correction Preparedness
If the index decisively moves back above 6986, it would confirm that the next upward leg is starting, creating opportunities for bullish trades. Such a break would likely lead to a rally toward the target zone of 7185-7235. Typically, the final stages of a rally, like the one in late 1999, can be quite turbulent. Importantly, overall market participation is still supporting the upward trend for now. The cumulative NYSE Advance/Decline line is following the index closely and is not showing signs of negative divergence that often happens before major market tops. Without this internal weakness, it’s hard to justify taking a strongly bearish position at this time. However, since an ending diagonal is a terminal pattern, this rally may be nearing its end. As the index approaches our 7200 target, we should prepare for a significant multi-month correction down to the 5800 area. Cautious traders might want to plan ahead by considering longer-term protective puts or VIX call options as we near new highs. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.DBS Bank’s Philip Wee suggests the Monetary Authority of Singapore will likely maintain the SGD NEER policy band, with USD/SGD projected to remain above 1.2675.
Stability Expected in 2025
In early 2025, there were strong expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore would keep its policies the same. The SGD was not anticipated to strengthen much, with the USD/SGD exchange rate expected to remain steady. This outlook created a calm environment for the market ahead of last year’s policy review. Looking back, the MAS did keep the slope, width, and center of its policy band unchanged throughout 2025. This decision helped keep the currency in a stable range and significantly reduced volatility. The one-month implied volatility for USD/SGD options is now close to a low of 4.3%. Such low volatility indicates that the market isn’t expecting any major surprises from the upcoming policy meeting. As we approach the meeting on January 29th this year, the economic situation supports a steady approach. Singapore’s core inflation has dropped to 2.9% year-on-year, far from its high points, relieving some pressure for further policy changes. With GDP growth expected to be a modest 2% to 3% for 2026, the central bank has little reason to disturb the market.Derivative Trading Strategies
For derivative traders, this environment suggests that selling options to gather premiums could be a good strategy. Short straddles or strangles on USD/SGD, focusing on the current spot rate, might benefit from the anticipated stability after the announcement. Although the low implied volatility means premiums aren’t high, it also shows the market’s strong belief that the currency will stay within a narrow range. However, it’s essential to monitor the broader trend of the US dollar. Any significant shifts globally could still influence the pair. Traders might consider purchasing inexpensive out-of-the-money options as a hedge against an unexpected policy announcement or a sudden move in the dollar index. Given the current situation, any break beyond the established trading range would likely indicate a significant change in market sentiment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Week Ahead: Yen Intervention Risk Recasts FX And Bond Markets

The new week begins with a noticeably different market tone. A trade that had appeared stable and well understood, built largely around yield differentials, fractured late last week, reminding participants how quickly currency dynamics can change once policy risk enters the picture.
A rate enquiry conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, acting on behalf of the US Treasury, sparked an abrupt market response.
The yen recorded its strongest single-day gain against the dollar since August, driving USDJPY sharply lower and reintroducing uncertainty into a market that had become heavily positioned in one direction.
US And Japan Hint At Intervention As Yen Swings Intensify
Signals around potential intervention did not emerge in a vacuum. Pressure on the yen has been building since October, fuelled by a sharp shift in Japan’s fiscal stance.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s promise to suspend sales tax on groceries for two years, part of an effort to shore up support ahead of the 8 February snap election, has heightened investor unease over government borrowing requirements.
That concern quickly filtered into bond markets. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to around 2.25%, up from roughly 1.6% when Takaichi assumed office.
With the Bank of Japan slow to respond through tighter monetary policy, the widening yield differential has weighed on the yen and encouraged sustained selling pressure.
From the US perspective, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has drawn a direct connection between volatility in American markets and developments in Japan.
Rising Japanese yields place upward pressure on US Treasuries, complicating efforts to keep financing costs under control. US 10-year yields have already climbed to around 4.31%, increasing sensitivity across equities and other risk assets.
Unlike previous administrations, the current leadership at the US Treasury has shown a greater willingness to engage directly in currency markets.
The recent rate check was widely interpreted as a warning rather than a one-off event. Markets are now assessing whether authorities move beyond signalling, or whether they attempt to steady sentiment through verbal guidance alone.
Market Movements Of The Week
USDJPY

– USDJPY found support at 154.15 after the sharp selloff.
– If price consolidates, the pair could test 153.35 next.
– Further downside would keep policy risk firmly priced into the pair.
US Dollar Index (USDX)

– USDX continues to trade lower from the 98.70 area and has taken out 96.804.
– If consolidation forms, further downside toward 95.819 remains possible.
– Sustained weakness would support major currencies.
Gold (XAUUSD)

– Gold has broken above 5000 following last week’s move.
– No immediate trade setup until a new pattern forms.
– Elevated FX volatility continues to underpin longer-term demand.
S&P 500 (SP500)

– The index met resistance at 6950 before gapping below 6890.
– Price has since stabilised and is trading higher again.
– A break above 6940 would be watched closely for follow-through.
Key Events This Week
29 January
1. US FOMC Statement, Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%
Policy tone remains key amid yield volatility.
30 January
1. US PPI m/m, Forecast: 0.20%, Previous: 0.20%
Inflation pipeline in focus.
Bottom Line
The yen has transitioned from a straightforward yield-driven trade into an asset dominated by policy risk, with effects rippling through foreign exchange, bond markets and equities. Rising Japanese yields and their spillover into US Treasuries are keeping volatility elevated, while USDJPY remains the key gauge of whether policymakers are prepared to act on intervention signals.
With bond markets acting as the primary transmission channel, traders are likely to remain highly reactive in the coming week, placing greater emphasis on price action than on macroeconomic releases alone.