Claudia Maria Buch, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board, is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at the 18th Finanzplatztag event in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 3, 2025. The event will focus on various topics, including the competitiveness of the German financial sector and regulatory developments.

Additional discussions will cover the impacts of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and electronic financial instruments. The role of the Frankfurt financial centre will also be addressed as a vital player in the industry. It is expected that the speech may not include detailed insights on the economy or monetary policy.

Regulatory focus and financial stability

Buch’s keynote will likely shape conversations around regulatory adjustments and financial stability. Given her position, any remarks on legislation or oversight will be closely examined, particularly by those directly impacted by financial regulations. It would not be unexpected if she emphasised recent supervisory challenges, areas needing further attention, or future priorities for financial institutions.

With topics such as digital currencies and blockchain also being discussed, attendees will be looking for clarity on how these innovations fit within existing financial structures. Regulatory bodies have maintained an interest in these technologies, weighing both potential risks and advantages. Given the ongoing push for regulatory alignment across Europe, any hints about upcoming frameworks could influence sentiment in these areas.

Frankfurts position in global finance

Frankfurt’s role as a financial hub remains a subject of discussion. Its place in global finance requires ongoing assessments of competitiveness and adaptability. If the event highlights concerns about efficiency or regulation, this could impact the decision-making of firms operating in the region.

It is worth acknowledging that this meeting comes at a time when financial markets continue to absorb previous policy moves. While Buch’s speech may avoid deeper assessments of monetary policy, her perspective on oversight and the financial system’s resilience should not be overlooked. Regulatory expectations shape behaviour, and any indication of policy direction will likely prompt adjustments.

Navigating the evolving financial landscape

For those navigating shifting conditions, understanding official views on regulation and sectoral challenges will be essential. If stricter measures seem likely, it would be sensible to reassess exposure to regulated activities. Whether digital assets, institutional oversight, or broader financial stability take priority in the discussion, reactions will follow accordingly.

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Core inflation in Indonesia registered at 2.48% year-on-year in February, surpassing the anticipated figure of 2.45%. This indicates a slight upward trend in inflationary pressures within the economy.

In related market movements, the AUD/USD pair remains above 0.6200 following positive Chinese manufacturing data. The Euro also displays strength against the US Dollar, trading above 1.0400, boosted by renewed peace efforts in Ukraine.

Gold prices are stabilising after recent lows, as geopolitical and tariff issues continue to generate uncertainty. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant rallies over the weekend.

Indonesia’s inflation trend: What it means for markets

The marginal rise in core inflation within Indonesia suggests that pricing pressures are growing, albeit modestly. While the deviation from expectations is not particularly large, it hints at a broader trend that could influence central bank policy in the near term. If inflation continues to push higher, adjustments to interest rates might become a topic of discussion. For traders dealing with derivative instruments linked to Indonesian assets, this is worth keeping an eye on, as shifting expectations around monetary policy could add to volatility.

Over to currency markets, the Australian Dollar remains firm beyond 0.6200, supported by encouraging data from Chinese manufacturing. Given Australia’s reliance on China as a trading partner, healthy economic activity there usually translates into support for the Aussie. Anyone trading derivatives tied to AUD/USD should consider whether this momentum has legs or if resistance levels could cap further upside. On the other hand, the Euro has gained ground against the Dollar, buoyed by renewed diplomatic efforts concerning Ukraine. Market participants appear to be factoring in potential de-escalation, which tends to favour risk-on sentiment. However, traders should remain mindful of how fast sentiment can shift when geopolitical tensions are involved.

Gold prices appear to be steadying following their earlier declines. Despite this, uncertainty around trade policies and global conflicts remains very much in play. Traditionally, gold serves as a safe-haven asset, attracting demand when instability resurfaces. Those engaged in gold futures or options may want to assess whether the current stabilisation phase represents an opportunity for accumulation or if further downside remains possible.

Crypto rallies: Sustainable momentum or short-term hype?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged over the weekend, drawing attention back to the cryptocurrency market. Increased buying interest may signal renewed confidence among investors, though it is worth remembering how quickly sentiment can shift in these markets. For traders working with crypto derivatives, recent price action suggests a period of heightened volatility ahead. Whether this rally has fundamental backing or is driven merely by short-term speculation remains a crucial question. Volatility creates opportunity, but risk management will be absolutely essential.

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XAG/USD recently dropped to $31.13, reflecting nearly a 4% decline for the week. Silver struggled to maintain levels above $33.00, leading to increased selling pressure and a test of the 100-day SMA at $31.20.

Key support levels include the 50-day SMA at $30.89; a break here may expose the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and a January low of $29.70. The metal’s inability to establish a rally above $33.00 has allowed sellers to gain momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Geopolitical risks and market forces

Factors impacting silver prices include geopolitical instability and interest rates, with a strong US Dollar generally hindering price growth. Additionally, industrial demand, particularly from sectors like electronics and solar energy, can cause price fluctuations.

Silver typically mirrors gold price movements, as both assets serve as safe havens. The Gold/Silver ratio is often referenced to assess the relative valuation of the metals, where significant fluctuations can indicate possible undervaluation or overvaluation of either precious metal.

This drop to $31.13, marking a nearly 4% decline in a single week, shows how sentiment has swiftly shifted. Silver struggled to hold above $33.00, which triggered increased selling pressure. Now, the 100-day SMA at $31.20 has been tested, and attention turns to the next support levels.

Looking at the technical picture, the 50-day SMA at $30.89 stands out as a short-term support level. If this fails, the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and the January low of $29.70 come into play. The RSI data confirms that the inability to break past $33.00 has emboldened sellers. When momentum gathers at such key points, traders typically take note of the potential for extended declines.

Industrial demand and long-term trends

Away from charts, broader elements are influencing price action. Geopolitical risks and interest rates remain in focus. A stronger US Dollar tends to weigh on silver, making rallies hard to sustain. At the same time, industrial use plays a role. With silver’s importance in electronics and solar technology, underlying demand can create shifts that some might overlook.

A key relationship to monitor is the link between silver and gold. The two metals often move together since both are seen as safe-haven assets. One common measure is the Gold/Silver ratio, which helps compare valuations. When this ratio moves sharply in one direction, it can suggest that one of the metals may be mispriced relative to the other. Watching for moments when this relationship deviates from historical patterns can be valuable.

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In February 2025, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, surpassing expectations of 50.3 and marking the highest level in three months. Manufacturing growth was supported by increased output and new orders, with export orders rebounding after a two-month downturn.

Workforce numbers decreased for the sixth consecutive month as companies focused on cost reduction, creating a backlog of work. Input costs experienced a slight rise, mainly due to increases in copper and chemical prices, while output prices fell for the third month, largely due to promotional discounts.

Supply chains regain momentum

Logistics improved following the Chinese New Year, as supplier delivery times and purchasing activities increased, though raw material inventories decreased. Businesses expressed optimism about future growth, but concerns regarding employment and household income continue to impact domestic demand.

The official PMIs for February also showed some improvement, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.2, slightly above the expected 50.0, and the services PMI at 50.4, compared to an expectation of 50.3.

Output and orders are moving up, and that is what matters most. February’s numbers reflect a rebound that is modest yet clear. Businesses are selling more, making more, and exporting more. For the first time in three months, the manufacturing sector has stepped back into an expansionary zone. The fact that export orders have swung back from decline suggests external demand is recovering. That is no small detail. Foreign buyers pulling back had weighed on the outlook, creating uncertainty over how long the soft patch would persist. Now, there is proof that orders are returning.

There is still an issue with employment. Companies are still trimming headcounts. The data shows that February was the sixth straight month where businesses reduced staffing levels. The reasoning behind it makes sense—cost control is a priority, and firms remain cautious. Still, fewer workers mean unfinished tasks are piling up. Backlogs usually hint at higher future output, but in this case, they also highlight how firms remain hesitant to expand too quickly.

Pricing pressures remain uneven

Price trends show a mixed picture. Input costs moved up, mostly because of rising commodity expenses. Copper and chemical prices pushed operating costs slightly higher, but on the other end, output prices dropped again. That tells us something important: businesses are still relying on lower prices to keep buyers engaged. Discounts are being used more often, suggesting weak enough demand that companies cannot raise prices with confidence. This disconnect—higher input costs but falling output prices—means margins could face some pressure.

Logistics are back on track. Chinese New Year disruptions are fading, and deliveries are improving. That is notable, as it means supplies are moving more freely again. Purchases by manufacturers have risen, but despite that, raw material inventories have slipped. That could reflect hesitation to hold too much stock or simply increased production eating into reserves. Either way, it reinforces the point that companies are expanding cautiously.

Official figures align with the broader takeaway. The government’s PMI numbers for both manufacturing and services were ahead of estimates. Not by much, but enough to confirm that the economy gained some traction in February. The services sector is still showing growth, which is encouraging, though only slightly better than expected. Taken together, these figures suggest that while activity has picked up, some underlying weaknesses remain.

Optimism among businesses is still there, but so are concerns. Sentiment suggests firms believe things will improve, but worries about jobs and household incomes are keeping domestic demand under pressure. If consumers remain hesitant to spend, that could slow momentum.

For those who focus on price movements, all of this provides useful direction. Input costs are rising, selling prices continue to soften, and demand—both domestic and foreign—remains in a fragile balance. Employment weakness persists, but production is expanding. With these factors at play, the next few weeks could bring more adjustments as businesses navigate these shifting pressures.

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The USD/JPY pair has rallied for three consecutive days, trading above the 150.00 mark after a low of 148.60. Currently priced at 150.59, it needs to surpass 150.93 to break the broader downtrend.

Key resistance levels are set at 151.00 and 151.50. If the pair fails to hold above 150.00, it could decline towards the support level of 148.57.

How central bank policy is shaping price action

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy significantly influences the Yen’s value, alongside the differential between Japanese and US bond yields. In times of market distress, the Yen often strengthens due to its safe-haven status.

We’re seeing a sustained recovery in the pair, but momentum will need an extra push to break out of the broader downtrend. That means traders should keep a close watch on whether it can clear 150.93 in the coming sessions. If that level holds firm against buying pressure, we could see fresh downward movement.

Resistance at 151.00 and 151.50 is within reach, and each test of these levels will indicate whether bullish sentiment has enough fuel to drive an extended rally. A failure to maintain a position above 150.00 could quickly swing sentiment the other way, bringing 148.57 back into focus. That’s the line in the sand where support could stabilise price action.

Monetary policy decisions from Tokyo continue to play a major role in shaping price movements. The contrast between interest rates in Japan and the US remains a defining factor in this trend. This difference affects capital flows, which can push the pair up or down depending on shifts in bond yields. Alongside this, the Yen’s historical position as a safe-haven asset means bouts of market uncertainty could cause rapid strength, even if fundamentals point in the opposite direction.

Key levels to watch in the coming sessions

For short-term positioning, we should assess whether momentum builds towards resistance or if sellers step in before it gets there. If 150.93 proves too much to overcome, a reversal looks more likely. If broken, however, the path towards 151.50 opens up rapidly. The next few sessions will be telling.

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) establishes the daily midpoint for the yuan, or renminbi (RMB), adhering to a managed floating exchange rate system. This system permits the yuan’s value to fluctuate within a +/- 2% band relative to a central reference rate.

The previous closing rate was 7.2798. Recently, the PBOC injected 97 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement, setting the rate at 1.5%.

Today, 292.5 billion yuan is maturing, resulting in a net drain of 195.5 billion yuan.

Impact of Liquidity Drain on Market Conditions

A tighter liquidity environment could follow such a large net drain, impacting short-term funding conditions. Traders should weigh the implications of this withdrawal carefully, especially as we have seen how past liquidity adjustments have influenced market sentiment. With the central bank opting for a smaller injection, borrowing costs in the interbank market may edge higher, affecting leveraged positions.

In parallel, the daily yuan fixing reflects the authorities’ commitment to managing exchange rate fluctuations within the permitted range. The midpoint’s level, when compared to market expectations, often signals policy intent. If the reference rate is stronger than anticipated, it suggests some effort to curb depreciation pressure. Conversely, if it is set weaker, it allows more flexibility for movement.

Looking beyond liquidity operations, broader market forces also remain at play. Capital flows, trade balances, and interest rate differentials shape investor positioning. Given that today’s liquidity strain coincides with these forces, near-term volatility may increase. While movements staying within the central bank’s band are expected, rapid shifts can still trigger reactionary positioning.

External Factors Influencing the Yuan

Observers should also remain mindful of external influences, particularly the US dollar’s trajectory and any shifts in global risk appetite. If external pressures align with the existing policy stance, there could be a sustained directional move in currency markets. However, if discrepancies emerge, adjustments in central bank operations may follow.

With these elements converging, positioning should account for liquidity conditions and official guidance. The coming sessions could reflect the balance between policy measures and market expectations, shaping price action in a more pronounced manner.

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Gold prices fell over 1% on Friday and have decreased by more than 3% throughout the week due to a stronger US Dollar, which reached a ten-day high of 107.66. The XAU/USD pair is currently at $2,845, having previously peaked at $2,885.

US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, effective March 4. Concerns about new trade policies and recent economic data have contributed to market uncertainty.

Fed Policy and Market Expectations

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed inflation aligning with the Fed’s 2% target. Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 70 basis points in 2025, beginning as early as June.

Revised GDP estimates indicate a contraction from 2.3% growth to -1.5% for the first quarter of 2025. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note declined by three basis points, coinciding with the rise of the US Dollar amidst recession fears.

Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack expressed doubts about a rate hike, citing uncertainties related to trade policies. The core PCE increased by 0.3% month-over-month and rose by 2.6% year-over-year, whereas the headline PCE remained steady at 2.5% year-over-year.

Despite tariff implications, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stands at 4.229%, which has curbed Gold’s declines. Real yields, reflected by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), fell to 1.853%. Goldman Sachs has updated its Gold price target, predicting $3,100 by the end of 2025.

Gold’s technical outlook shows bearish candles, indicating that traders may be adjusting portfolios. After dropping below the $2,900 level, XAU/USD is aiming for $2,832, with a daily close above $2,850 potentially reviving bullish sentiments.

Key Levels to Watch

Key resistance remains at $2,900, while Gold’s support levels are at $2,800 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits at $2,770. Central banks, especially in emerging economies, added a record 1,136 tonnes of Gold to reserves during 2022.

Gold’s price movements are often inversely correlated with the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Factors such as geopolitical instability and interest rate changes impact Gold prices, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset in uncertain economic conditions.

The past week’s decline in Gold prices can largely be attributed to the US Dollar’s strength, which has gained momentum off the back of rising expectations surrounding monetary policy. With the Dollar Index climbing to 107.66, the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold has waned. The dip below $2,900 has reinforced cautious sentiment among traders, with key support levels now coming into focus. Attention must remain on $2,800, while a bounce above $2,850 could change short-term direction.

Trade developments remain a focal point after Donald’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. These policies could introduce supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, which may, in turn, influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions. So far, inflation figures from the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remain within the Fed’s 2% target. The yearly increase of 2.6% in core PCE suggests pricing pressures persist but are not intensifying rapidly enough to push the central bank towards rate hikes.

Fed officials have taken a cautious stance, with Beth noting the uncertainty stemming from trade policies. With Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates now pointing towards a contraction of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2025—down from an earlier 2.3% growth projection—recession fears have come to the forefront. This shift in expectations has coincided with the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which has eased by three basis points, further influencing trader sentiment.

Despite these concerns, real yields have slipped to 1.853%, which has helped cushion some of Gold’s losses. The relationship between Treasury yields, the Dollar, and Gold remains a pivotal dynamic, particularly with market participants now predicting a total of 70 basis points in rate cuts in 2025, potentially starting in June.

Goldman Sachs has revised its price target upwards, now projecting $3,100 by the end of 2025. While this provides longer-term optimism, traders are currently focused on technical indicators, observing how Gold reacts around support zones. The 50-day Simple Moving Average at $2,770 represents another level that could come into play if further downside materialises.

Emerging economies continue to accumulate Gold at an aggressive pace, with central banks adding 1,136 tonnes in 2022. These purchases reflect ongoing concerns over economic uncertainty, reinforcing Gold’s role as a store of value. While inflation figures have stabilised for now, any deviation in upcoming data releases could influence both rate expectations and Gold price volatility in the weeks ahead.

The Dollar’s behaviour, Treasury yields, and positioning from institutional investors will remain key in shaping price movements. With fundamental and technical factors pointing to mixed signals, traders will need to monitor how macroeconomic data impacts sentiment before positioning for the next major move.

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In Australia, business inventories rose by 0.1% for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing expectations of no change. This figure follows a decline of 0.9% in the previous quarter.

Operating profit increased by 5.9% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the anticipated 1.8% after a prior decrease of 4.6%. The positive inventory data suggests a potentially stronger GDP outcome for the fourth quarter, with results set to be released on Wednesday.

Stock levels in Australia edged slightly higher, defying expectations of stagnation. Although modest, this shift points to a possible stabilisation after the contraction from the prior period. When businesses hold more stock, it often reflects either increased demand or preparations for stronger sales ahead.

Meanwhile, company earnings posted a robust rebound, extending well beyond analysts’ forecasts. A 5.9% surge in profits suggests that businesses managed to recoup losses from the previous decline far more quickly than expected. This upswing introduces a fresh dynamic to growth projections, especially with upcoming GDP figures expected mid-week.

For those active in the market, these shifts change the equation. An uptick in inventories, paired with stronger-than-expected earnings, implies that businesses may be in a stronger position than feared. If the GDP figures align with these developments, broader market sentiment could shift accordingly.

We must also keep in mind that prior inventory contractions had pointed to underlying weakness. The reversal of that trend raises questions about whether this improvement is sustainable or simply a correction after an overly sharp decline. Either way, this will shape expectations for the months ahead.

With this new data, previous assumptions regarding economic momentum may no longer hold. Adjustments will need to be made as the full picture becomes clearer in the days to come.

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The AUD/USD pair fell by approximately 0.54%, nearing 0.6200 and marking a three-week low after a six-day decline. Contributing factors included a proposal for an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports by President Trump and disappointing Australian Private Capital Expenditure data, which shrank by 0.2% in Q4 2024 against a forecast of 0.8%.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data rose by 0.3% month-on-month in January, in line with expectations. The Australian dollar is affected by various factors, including interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the state of the Chinese economy, and the price of Iron Ore.

Moreover, the trade balance influences the AUD’s value, with a positive balance generally strengthening the currency. Immediate support for the AUD/USD may be around the 0.6150 level, while resistance is likely near the 20-day Simple Moving Average if market sentiment improves.

This latest move in the AUD/USD pair reflects the weight of both domestic and global pressures on the Australian dollar. A slide of 0.54% might not seem extreme in isolation, but a six-day losing streak leading to a three-week low suggests a shift in sentiment. It isn’t just the broader market mood—specific economic indicators are pointing to the same direction.

Adding friction to the Australian dollar’s performance was Trump’s proposal for an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Markets tend to react quickly to such announcements, as any potential economic burden on China may have a knock-on effect on Australia. With a deep trade relationship between the two countries, anything that slows Chinese demand can ripple through to Australia’s exports, particularly commodities like iron ore.

The latest data on Australian Private Capital Expenditure didn’t help either. A 0.2% contraction in Q4 2024, when economists had expected a 0.8% rise, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Weakness in capital expenditure often signals hesitancy among businesses to invest, which can be a reflection of broader uncertainties in the economy. If firms aren’t comfortable expanding, job markets and consumer spending could eventually feel the strain.

Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January was exactly as expected, rising by 0.3% month-over-month. Given that PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, a solid reading without surprises tends to keep rate expectations stable. It maintains the status quo rather than forcing traders to reposition heavily.

Interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia remain among the defining factors for the Australian dollar’s strength. When rates are relatively high compared to other major economies, demand for the currency tends to pick up, as investors seek better returns. But if expectations shift toward cuts, downward pressure can build. The Chinese economy plays an equally critical role, given how much Australian exports rely on continued demand there. The third factor, iron ore prices, ties directly into that dynamic. If China slows, so might its appetite for raw materials, and that has a direct impact on Australia’s trade revenues.

Speaking of trade, Australia’s trade balance remains one of the key measures of support for the currency. A surplus typically reflects strong demand for Australian goods and services abroad, which can lend strength to the dollar. If exports falter or imports surge, that balance weakens, potentially leading to a softer currency.

At the moment, technical indicators suggest that support around the 0.6150 level could be an area of interest. If selling momentum persists, prices might gravitate toward that zone before finding more stability. On the upside, should risk appetite improve and fundamentals turn in Australia’s favour, resistance could emerge near the 20-day Simple Moving Average. From a short-term trading perspective, those are the levels worth watching, as they may determine the next round of price action in this pairing.

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Japan’s final Manufacturing PMI for February stands at 49.0, an increase from 47.7, yet still below the neutral mark of 50. This indicates that the manufacturing sector remains in contraction despite the slight improvement.

Challenges persist primarily due to weak global demand and uncertainties in trade policy. Although the pace of contraction in the factory sector has slowed, there are ongoing struggles with sluggish demand domestically and internationally.

Production has fallen for six consecutive months, with a continuing decline in new orders since mid-2023. While manufacturers express a cautious positive outlook for the coming year, confidence has weakened significantly, reaching its lowest level since June 2020.

Employment levels remain unchanged, as full-time hiring is counteracted by retirements and departures. Rising input costs, attributed to increased expenses for raw materials, labour, and utilities, lead manufacturers to raise selling prices at a faster rate.

We see Japan’s manufacturing sector showing some resilience, but the core challenges are far from over. While February’s final Manufacturing PMI reading at 49.0 is an improvement from the prior month’s 47.7, it remains below the key threshold of 50. This confirms that factories continue to shrink, albeit at a slower rate.

The pressure on production is not easing. A six-month streak of declining output reflects weaker demand from both domestic and international buyers. The drop in new orders, persisting since mid-2023, suggests that purchasing activity is still weak, and businesses are hesitant to commit to fresh acquisitions. Although firms maintain a degree of optimism for the next twelve months, sentiment has taken a hit. Confidence now sits at its lowest point in nearly four years, a reminder of the uncertainty within the sector.

Hiring trends tell a similar story. Employment levels are holding steady, but not due to an uptick in recruitment. Instead, any job additions are balanced out by retirements and voluntary exits. Without fresh demand driving higher production needs, businesses appear cautious about onboarding new workers. Rising input costs add another layer of complexity. More expensive raw materials, higher labour expenses, and increased utility charges mean that factories are passing the burden onto consumers by lifting selling prices at a quicker pace.

For traders, these conditions point to heightened volatility in this space. Pricing dynamics, cost pressures, and order flows will remain key factors to watch. Inflationary concerns could prompt shifts in monetary policy expectations, influencing market reactions. The persistence of weak global trade will continue weighing on sentiment, and any policy developments that impact supply chains or export competitiveness could drive further movement.

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