In February, Swiss manufacturing conditions showed improvement, with increases in both output and new orders. The manufacturing PMI reached 49.6, surpassing the forecast of 48.0 and an earlier reading of 47.5.

This shows that overall activity is experiencing a slight contraction after a softer phase since the previous year. The figures suggest a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Signs Of Renewed Momentum

While the numbers still indicate a mild contraction, they show a step towards renewed momentum. The latest data points to a production environment that isn’t as restrained as before. Factories are seeing some relief with more orders coming in, which naturally boosts expectations.

When comparing the recent reading to earlier figures, there’s a contrast. Conditions were weaker in prior months, making the latest rebound a change in direction. The improvement in orders plays a role in this, as higher demand generally translates into a busier industrial sector.

Market participants will be examining whether this upturn continues or if it remains a temporary shift. This is especially important given how broader economic conditions affect manufacturing as a whole. Looking beyond the immediate numbers, the trajectory of factory activity can influence expectations in other areas.

With these new developments, there’s reason to watch how pricing pressures respond. If production continues to stabilise, adjustments in cost expectations may follow. These reports also form part of a wider set of signals that help in assessing near-term movements across various markets.

Impact Of External Factors

As we interpret these results, it’s useful to consider how external factors weigh on business expectations. Elements such as raw material supply, global demand, and financial conditions all feed into how manufacturers navigate current conditions. The coming weeks will give further clarity on whether this momentum holds or if adjustments in positioning are required.

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The Singapore Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in February from 50.9 in January. This decline indicates a slower expansion within the manufacturing sector.

In the broader market, EUR/USD recently recaptured levels above 1.0450 after Euro area inflation data showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase in February. GBP/USD also gained momentum, surpassing 1.2650 due to a weakening US Dollar.

Gold Prices Rebound

Gold prices rebounded above $2,870, recovering from a low of $2,830, amid concerns related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and pending US tariffs on multiple countries.

The dip in Singapore’s PMI tells us that the manufacturing sector is still growing, just not as quickly as before. A reading above 50 generally means activity is expanding, but the slowdown hints at weaker demand or production challenges. Businesses involved in this space should be mindful of shifting conditions as even a modest cooling can ripple through supply chains and weigh on decision-making.

On the currency front, the euro regained ground after inflation figures from the Eurozone showed higher-than-expected monthly growth. Price pressures like these often fuel speculation about future interest rate moves, which can add volatility to trading strategies. Sterling also climbed, helped in part by weakness in the dollar. A softer greenback improves sentiment around other currencies, but such gains tend to be fragile, especially if economic data out of the US shifts expectations around rates.

Geopolitical And Trade Risks

Meanwhile, gold prices bounced back from earlier lows. The metal often reacts strongly to geopolitical uncertainty, and with tensions still heightened, demand for safe-haven assets could stay firm. Talks of potential trade measures from the US add another layer of risk, which may feed into further price swings. Those tracking commodities closely should keep an eye on global developments, as they could influence short-term movements as well as longer-term trends.

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Despite the challenges, price developments showed a slight easing of input costs. Although raw material and supplier costs continue to rise, price pressures are generally within a normal range.

Sector Disparities

Disparities across sub-sectors were observed, with consumer goods growing while investment goods contracted for two months. The intermediate goods sector experienced only marginal improvement.

The employment index has entered contraction territory for the first time in six months, though large-scale layoffs appear unlikely. Manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic despite ongoing uncertainties in the market.

This latest data suggests the manufacturing sector in Spain is facing renewed strains after a period of relative stability. A reading below 50 signals contraction, and at 49.7, it falls below expectations. The fact that new orders have slipped for the first time since mid-2024 highlights waning demand, which, if prolonged, could further pressure the sector.

While factories have kept production running at a reasonable pace, backlogs of work are being cleared rather than new business driving output. This may explain why some firms have started reducing staff, though job cuts so far have not been severe. Concerns remain, yet sentiment among manufacturers has improved, possibly reflecting expectations of better conditions ahead.

Labour Market Concerns

Costs remain a mixed picture. On one hand, raw material prices are still climbing, but broader input costs have eased slightly. For businesses operating on thin margins, any relief helps, though the overall situation suggests inflationary pressures are not entirely gone.

A closer look at sub-sectors reveals differences in performance. Consumer goods have maintained growth, suggesting steady household demand. However, investment goods have now shrunk for two consecutive months, hinting that businesses may be holding back on equipment purchases. The intermediate goods category has fared slightly better but lacks strong momentum.

A weakening jobs market is a concern, as the first drop in employment in half a year suggests firms are tightening operations. No evidence points to widespread redundancies, but this shift in hiring decisions reflects caution. Still, firms remain reasonably confident about future conditions despite the hurdles they currently face.

For those tracking price movements and labour market shifts, recent trends present both risks and opportunities. Some areas of manufacturing may benefit from improved sentiment, while others continue to struggle under weaker demand. Confidence alone won’t drive a recovery, but how firms react to cost pressures and employment changes in the weeks ahead will provide an indication of underlying resilience.

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In February, Brazil’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53, up from 50.7 previous month. This figure indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, signalling positive economic activity.

The PMI is a crucial indicator, reflecting changes in the level of manufacturing output. A reading above 50 suggests growth, while a reading below indicates contraction, showcasing the health of the manufacturing industry in Brazil.

Market Influences And Expectations

Data looking forward includes anticipations for the US Manufacturing PMI report, which is expected to show a slight slowdown. Other significant factors influencing markets include geopolitical tensions and tariff developments affecting trade relations.

A rise in Brazil’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 53 means manufacturing activity is picking up at a faster pace. That’s a healthy sign, especially given that it was hovering just above the breakeven point in the previous month. When factory activity grows, it often points to stronger demand, which can ripple through the economy in different ways.

A figure above 50 shows that companies are reporting better conditions than before. It might mean more orders, increased production, or simply a stronger confidence in the months ahead. For those watching economic trends, this kind of data typically helps gauge whether supply chains, employment, and investment might get a lift.

Looking ahead, all eyes move to the United States, where factory activity is expected to soften slightly. A slowdown there could dampen sentiment, especially because such signals out of one of the world’s biggest economies tend to influence a broad range of markets. If numbers come in lower than expected, it might prompt speculators to adjust their positions.

Global Trade And Policy Factors

Beyond these numbers, outside forces are also shaping decision-making. Global tensions remain high, and ongoing developments around trade policies continue to shape where and how goods flow across borders. Both of these elements can influence expectations just as much as economic reports.

For traders focusing on derivatives, everything comes back to momentum and forward-looking moves. A change in Brazil’s manufacturing numbers sets a local tone, but broader trends in global demand will determine whether this growth is sustainable. With American factory performance likely to cool off slightly, the reaction to those numbers will be telling. If the slowdown is sharper than expected, it could spark adjustments in expectations for central bank policies, trade dynamics, and even commodity prices.

Timing becomes key in the weeks ahead. A strong manufacturing sector in one part of the world doesn’t guarantee stability elsewhere. Short-term moves might create opportunities, but one report rarely tells the full story. Factory activity is one thing; how businesses and policymakers react to it is another.

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European equities opened higher on 3 March 2025, reflecting a slight catch-up to gains seen in Wall Street last Friday. Major indices are looking to maintain the positive momentum from February, with Eurostoxx rising by 0.2%, and the Germany DAX up by 0.7%.

Other indices also posted gains, including France’s CAC 40 at 0.2%, the UK’s FTSE increasing by 0.3%, Spain’s IBEX rising by 0.1%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB up by 0.5%. The overall mood improved, evidenced by a 0.2% rise in S&P 500 futures, though uncertainty remains regarding upcoming decisions on tariffs.

Market Optimism And Trade Policy Risks

This opening suggests that European markets are tracking the positive sentiment from the US. It points to mild optimism but also hints at lingering concerns, especially with policy decisions that could have an effect on trade. A steady rise, as seen across these indices, shows that confidence remains intact—for now. The mention of tariff uncertainty means investors are watching policy shifts closely, as these could change the direction of current trends.

With European markets attempting to build on February’s strength, a cautious approach remains necessary. Steady gains indicate optimism, yet traders should remain aware of external risks, particularly in relation to trade policies that could influence demand for European exports. Even with US futures ticking higher, it does not guarantee sustained momentum if economic or geopolitical factors shift unexpectedly.

Beyond broad market sentiment, liquidity conditions will be important in determining how long this momentum holds. February’s performance suggests investors have been willing to take on more exposure, but this could change with any shifts in central bank policy or economic outlooks. If recent gains have been driven by expectations of lower interest rates, any deviation from those assumptions could bring about volatility.

Short-term traders should focus on levels of resistance and support, particularly within the DAX and FTSE 100, which have been closely following global trends. The early move in Germany, for instance, places attention on whether buyers will step in at higher levels or if sellers take control should momentum fade. Meanwhile, the CAC 40’s modest move keeps attention on individual sectors leading the advance.

Impact Of Bond Market Movements

Bond markets should also not be overlooked. Their movements have often preceded shifts in equities, and any rapid changes in yields could impact risk sentiment. When rates push higher unexpectedly, investors tend to recalibrate their approach to stocks, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Data releases later this week will be under greater scrutiny. Any deviation from expectations surrounding growth, inflation, or employment could shift sentiment quickly, particularly if confidence has been built on assumptions that prove too optimistic. With index futures still showing tentativeness despite today’s early positivity, traders should remain prepared for possible reversals should external factors dictate a change in outlook.

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China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs increased in February as activities resumed following the Lunar New Year holiday. The manufacturing PMI returned to growth, while the non-manufacturing PMI gained momentum.

Despite these expansions, underlying indices indicate a less optimistic outlook. The rebound in manufacturing was driven by large enterprises, whereas medium and small firms experienced sharper declines compared to January. The increase in non-manufacturing PMI stemmed mainly from a rise in construction, while the services index showed a slowdown.

Impact Of Trade Tensions

Concerns remain due to escalating trade tensions with the US, which may impact China’s export performance. Market participants are anticipating announcements from the upcoming annual ‘two sessions’ for potential stimulus measures to alleviate risks facing the Chinese economy.

China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed improvement in February, but that’s only part of the story. The official figures suggest a rebound, yet the underlying details paint a more nuanced picture.

Factory activity picked up, but this was largely due to stronger momentum among bigger firms, leaving medium and small businesses in a tougher spot. The gap between company sizes hints at deeper imbalances, and that’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. Though the return to expansion is a positive signal, weaker performance among smaller manufacturers suggests demand may not be as strong as the headline numbers imply.

Outside manufacturing, growth was mostly driven by construction, but services didn’t follow suit. There was some growth, but at a slower rate than before. With domestic consumption playing a key role in China’s broader economic health, any sluggishness here could have knock-on effects. If service-related businesses don’t gain traction soon, this could temper overall confidence in the recovery.

On the external front, rising trade tensions with the US bring another layer of uncertainty. With tariffs still a point of contention and trade restrictions weighing on exports, there’s little relief coming from global demand. Businesses relying on overseas markets might face fresh headwinds, and that pressure won’t ease overnight.

Policy Expectations And Market Reactions

With the annual ‘two sessions’ approaching, attention now shifts to policymakers. Market expectations are building around possible stimulus efforts, with investors looking for clues on how Beijing plans to support growth. Any new measures will be closely analysed, especially for their impact on credit availability, infrastructure spending, and support for struggling industries. If policymakers hold off or underdeliver, sentiment could shift quickly.

For those trading derivatives, these shifts demand careful positioning over the next few weeks. Volatility may rise if policy signals deviate from expectations, and sector-specific impacts could open up trading opportunities—especially in industries exposed to construction, exports, or domestic demand. Monitoring statements from officials, particularly around liquidity measures and fiscal policy, will help anticipate market reactions. Understanding how this plays out relative to broader global trends is just as important, as the external environment remains unpredictable.

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The USDJPY pair is currently consolidating near a significant resistance level. Last week, the USD strengthened broadly due to risk-off flows and renewed concerns over tariffs, despite some disappointing US economic data.

The Japanese Yen maintained support amid risk-averse sentiment and declining Treasury yields. However, last Friday saw the Yen weaken as the Tokyo CPI did not meet expectations, reducing speculation for further rate hikes this year.

Technical Analysis On Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the USDJPY rebounded from 148.60, reaching 150.93 resistance, where sellers may emerge. Buyers are poised to push higher to extend the pullback trajectory.

In the 4-hour analysis, the pullback shows range-bound activity, with sellers focusing on a decline back to 148.60, while buyers target a rally past the resistance.

The 1-hour chart reveals a support zone at 150.18, which may attract buyers aiming for a break above resistance. Alternatively, sellers could push the price lower towards 148.60.

Upcoming economic data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the deadline for Trump’s tariffs. Key reports like the US ADP and ISM Services PMI, along with Jobless Claims figures, will be released throughout the week, culminating with the US NFP report on Friday.

The price movement suggests a battle between buyers and sellers, with neither side gaining full control for now. While the broader trend favours further upside for the US dollar, short-term fluctuations could create opportunities in both directions.

Looking at last week’s developments, the dollar saw gains mainly due to a shift in sentiment. Traders moved away from riskier assets, seeking safety in the greenback, even as some economic figures out of the US came in weaker than expected. Tariff concerns only added to the demand. On the other hand, the yen held firm for most of the week as falling Treasury yields and overall risk aversion lent support. However, expectations shifted on Friday when inflation data from Tokyo suggested less pressure for the Bank of Japan to raise rates soon. That sent the yen lower.

Key Resistance And Support Levels

Technically, the resistance around 150.93 stands as a clear challenge for buyers. At that level, sellers have been stepping in to limit further gains. If they continue to defend this zone, attempts to push higher could struggle. Yet, if buyers manage to clear the hurdle, further gains may follow. Given the recent price action, some could be looking at 148.60 as an area where demand might increase again, keeping the range intact for now.

Looking at the shorter timeframes, the movements remain within a defined zone. On the 4-hour view, prices have been bouncing between key levels, suggesting no clear breakout just yet. A drop from resistance may pull the pair lower, but if buyers regain momentum, a renewed challenge to the highs could take place. On the 1-hour chart, buyers have shown interest around 150.18. Holding that level keeps the focus on resistance, but any downside break through it could expose lower targets.

This week is packed with data releases likely to bring volatility. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is up first, followed by Trump’s tariff deadline. Later in the week, ADP employment figures and the ISM Services PMI will provide more insight into economic conditions. Weekly jobless claims are also due, leading up to Friday’s highlight—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Each of these releases carries the potential to shift expectations, keeping market participants on high alert.

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European leaders have unified to support Ukraine, which has strengthened the Euro (EUR), recently positioned at 1.0416. An emergency summit discussed a potential €20 billion military package and increased defence spending, with broader discussions planned for Thursday.

In contrast, the announcement of tariffs by Trump, particularly a proposed 25% tariff on the EU, could negatively impact the EUR. Technical analysis indicates resistance at various levels, including 1.0420 and 1.0510, while support lies at 1.0360/90 and 1.0280.

European Support For Ukraine

A strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate this week may assist the EUR’s recovery ahead of the ECB meeting, which has already factored in an 85 basis point cut this year. Any unexpected shifts in this regard could bolster the Euro’s position.

The unity among European leaders in backing Ukraine has provided a boost to the Euro, which has recently been trading around the 1.0416 level. During an emergency summit, discussions revolved around a €20 billion military support package, alongside plans to allocate more resources towards defence. A broader conversation is set to continue on Thursday, which could shape investor sentiment around the Euro in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly the 25% duty on European goods, present a direct downside risk. Trade restrictions of this scale would place additional pressure on the currency, potentially reversing recent gains. Investors should weigh the timing and potential countermeasures from European officials, especially if these tariffs begin to materialise into concrete policy.

From a technical perspective, there are several key points to watch. Resistance appears firm at levels such as 1.0420 and 1.0510, meaning upward movement may face challenges without a strong enough catalyst. Conversely, should the Euro decline, support around 1.0360 to 1.0390 will be the first test, with another layer down near 1.0280.

Impact Of Inflation Data

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading will be an important factor in short-term price movement. If inflation figures exceed expectations, this could reinforce confidence in the Euro’s strength leading up to the upcoming ECB meeting. Market pricing has already accounted for a total of 85 basis points in rate cuts this year. Any deviation from this expectation—either in tone or policy outlook—has the potential to drive the currency even higher, as traders reassess the central bank’s next move.

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Atsushi’s remarks come at a time when wage levels are under scrutiny, with the broader economy showing mixed signals. Real private consumption has yet to return to where it was before the pandemic, which affects overall demand. However, corporate investment remains healthy, and the continued rise in inbound tourism adds to spending activity. Both of these elements help counterbalance weaker consumption figures.

Spring Wage Negotiations

As the spring wage talks approach, expectations around income adjustments will influence decisions at the Bank of Japan. Policymakers are watching closely for any indications that rising salaries could sustain inflation beyond cost-push factors. Without steady wage increases, domestic demand may not strengthen enough to support higher prices in a lasting way. This is where small and medium-sized businesses become an essential part of the equation. Atsushi’s mention of their wage potential suggests interest in whether they will adjust pay in a way that supports overall inflation targets.

If businesses raise salaries more broadly, this could reinforce arguments for policy changes. The central bank has been monitoring whether inflation can hold without excessive monetary support. Atsushi’s acknowledgment of investment strength and tourism-driven spending shows that some economic foundations remain steady. These factors may encourage discussions on whether conditions will soon allow for an adjustment in interest rates.

Market Expectations

In the coming weeks, financial markets will be watching for clues from wage negotiations and broader consumer activity. Retail spending figures and corporate hiring trends may hold weight in shaping expectations. Any upward adjustment in pay settlements could serve as an early indication of potential policy shifts.

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Net lending to individuals in the United Kingdom for January was reported at £5.9 billion, exceeding the projected £4.7 billion. This figure indicates a positive trend in consumer borrowing.

In European markets, the EUR/USD pair rose toward 1.0450, spurred by a core inflation increase of 0.6% in February following a decline the previous month. Meanwhile, GBP/USD traded above 1.2600, benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and geopolitical developments.

Gold’s price remained stable amid anticipated tariffs and discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, while the Institute for Supply Management’s February Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a modest slowdown in the US sector.

Consumer Borrowing Trends

The higher-than-expected net lending figure suggests that consumer confidence remains strong, with individuals borrowing more than market estimates. This could indicate that households are willing to take on additional debt, possibly in response to favourable borrowing conditions or expectations of stable economic conditions. Traders should take note of this trend, as it could influence future monetary policy decisions. If borrowing continues to rise, policymakers might see a reason to adjust rates or introduce measures to manage credit expansion.

In foreign exchange markets, the movement of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.0450 followed a rebound in core inflation for February. A 0.6% increase after the previous month’s decline suggests that prices are once again firming. Inflation data often plays a key role in central bank decisions, so traders should remain attentive to further indicators from the Eurozone in the coming weeks. If inflation persists at higher levels, market expectations around policy adjustments could shift, adding volatility to currency pairs.

On the UK side, sterling retained strength above 1.2600, with a combination of external and internal factors supporting its position. The fading strength of the US Dollar contributed to this movement, as did geopolitical factors that influenced investor sentiment. If this trend continues, market participants should keep assessing how currency positioning reacts to macroeconomic developments.

Gold remained stable, suggesting that current global uncertainties and discussions around trade tariffs are keeping demand for safe-haven assets steady. With uncertainty still present, we should watch for any policy announcements or unforeseen geopolitical tensions that could drive demand higher or lower.

Upcoming Economic Reports

Finally, the upcoming Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report will be closely followed. A modest slowdown in activity has been anticipated, but if the data deviates, it could impact bond yields, equity markets, and currency trading. Keeping a close watch on these movements will be essential in gauging potential shifts in investor sentiment.

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