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Gold’s rise in value at the start of the week reflects a broader trend that has played out across the global market. With a single gram reaching 338.62 AED, up from Friday’s 337.09 AED, and a tola increasing to 3,949.74 AED, there is a clear upward momentum. These movements align with what we have observed in international trading, where prices closely follow shifts in demand, monetary policy, and investor sentiment.

To keep these figures in perspective, one troy ounce is now priced at 10,532.20 AED. Since these rates are updated daily and depend on international benchmarks, they continue to shift based on market forces. Traders who are reacting to these fluctuations should be aware that short-term changes in pricing often reflect broader economic themes rather than isolated market events.

Geopolitical And Economic Influences

When we take into account that central banks collectively acquired 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2022 alone—worth approximately $70 billion—it is evident that institutional demand remains prominent. Central banks continue to see value in gold as a tool for diversification, reinforcing their reserves while maintaining the perception of currency stability. Historically, their purchasing activity has served as an indicator of confidence in fiat currencies and the broader economy.

External forces also play a crucial part in price movement. Interest rates, for example, shape the opportunity cost of holding gold. Because it does not yield interest, gold typically becomes more attractive in lower-rate environments when compared to income-generating assets. If interest rates remain high, gold may face headwinds. However, if rate cuts become more likely, gold’s appeal may improve further.

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Beijing’s decision to focus on agricultural goods places pressure on one of the most politically sensitive sectors in Washington. Farmers across the United States, particularly those in rural regions, have felt the strain from previous trade measures, and any further restrictions could deepen those difficulties. Given the weight that agricultural states carry in American elections, the move appears to target a base that has historically been vocal in trade disputes.

Chinese Economic Priorities

While policymakers in Beijing have remained measured in their official statements, reports suggest that duties on soybeans and pork are once again being considered. These products have been central to previous disputes, and even the hint of new levies has already unsettled exporters. Market participants will need to reassess expectations in light of these developments, as routes that were once reliable for trade could narrow further.

The broader economic context also plays a direct role. Consumption within China has yet to fully recover from the prolonged effects of prior restrictions, and authorities are balancing domestic priorities with external pressures. We see that economic planners are discussing stimulus efforts that prioritise self-sufficiency, which suggests a longer-term decoupling in specific industries. For those monitoring trade flows, this reinforces expectations that dependency on American agricultural supplies may continue to decline.

Market Volatility

In Washington, trade representatives have acknowledged the possibility of retaliation but have not laid out a formal timeline for any response beyond the tariffs that were already announced. While official rhetoric remains firm, industries dependent on exports are already lobbying for adjustments. Commodity markets will reflect these tensions well before policymakers act, leaving traders to navigate shifting expectations without fixed guidance.

Foreign exchange markets have also responded, with fluctuations in the yuan reflecting both investor caution and policy speculation. While moves have been within expected ranges, sentiment has weakened compared to earlier in the quarter. Currency stability remains a stated priority for Beijing, but targeted interventions may be required if outflows accelerate.

The weeks ahead will likely determine the direction of trade relations beyond this immediate dispute. If no new negotiations emerge, prolonged uncertainty will give traders little choice but to hedge against ongoing volatility.

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EUR/JPY has increased to 156.65, showing a rise of 0.33% during early Asian trading. This uptick is bolstered by expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and anticipation of Eurozone HICP and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

The Euro has seen buying interest following a proposal by France and the UK for a one-month truce in Ukraine. The preliminary reading for Eurozone HICP and US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday.

Japan inflation and central bank moves

Recent data from Japan indicates solid economic growth and persistent inflation, supporting the notion of more interest rate increases from the BoJ. The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI recorded a reading of 50.8, compared to a flash estimate of 48.9, marking the softest contraction in three months.

This increase in the pair reflects expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening policy. Traders looking at derivatives must note that such moves are not coming out of nowhere. The market is reacting to fresh data that suggests inflation in Japan is stubbornly high, making rate hikes more likely.

On the European side, there has been a boost in sentiment surrounding the Euro. That buying interest is not just tied to economic data but also to recent geopolitical developments. France and the UK are making efforts towards temporary peace in Ukraine, which has added to confidence in European stability. Investors want certainty, and whenever there is even a slight reduction in geopolitical tension, demand for the Euro tends to rise.

Inflation reports and market impact

Looking ahead, there are two economic events that demand attention. The preliminary reading for the Eurozone’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released soon. These are not minor reports. Inflation figures from Europe will guide expectations on whether the European Central Bank will adjust its monetary policy stance, while the US data will shape views on the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

Derivatives traders should be paying attention to Japan’s economic numbers as well. The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected, jumping to 50.8 from a previously estimated 48.9. This suggests that Japanese manufacturing, which was looking weak, may be stabilising. A stronger economy gives the central bank more room to tighten policy further over time.

With all these factors at play, we must be prepared for potential volatility. Interest rate expectations are one of the major drivers of forex markets, so any surprises in inflation or manufacturing figures from the Eurozone, the US, or Japan could shift sentiment quickly.

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Trump announced the establishment of a Crypto Strategic Reserve that will include XRP, SOL, ADA, as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which drove their prices up. A single trader purchased US$195 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum just before the price surge.

China’s February PMIs demonstrated improvements, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-month high. Chinese equities increased amid ongoing tariff discussions, as authorities aim to maintain stability during the national parliament session.

Crypto market surges on strategic reserve news

The US dollar showed mild weakness, with the euro rising. USD/JPY peaked above 151.00 before dropping to approximately 150.45, likely influenced by speculation on the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hikes in response to US pressures.

Trump’s announcement about the Crypto Strategic Reserve fuelled strong buying across digital assets. The selection of tokens—XRP, SOL, ADA, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum—pushed prices higher, reinforcing market confidence. What stood out was a trader’s well-timed move, acquiring $195 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum just before values surged. While it is impossible to determine intent, such positioning suggests either deep insight or sheer luck. Either way, this added momentum to an already bullish reaction.

Meanwhile, Chinese economic indicators set a tone of modest recovery. February’s PMIs pointed to better conditions, particularly in manufacturing, where the Caixin index climbed to its best level in three months. That was reflected in stock performance, as shares ticked upwards. Policy discussions on trade remain ongoing, with authorities prioritising stability ahead of the national parliament session. The focus appears to be on ensuring confidence while external negotiations continue.

Currencies react as markets adjust

On the currency side, the US dollar showed slight weakness. The euro capitalised on this, appreciating in response. USD/JPY briefly rose above 151.00 before pulling back towards 150.45. Speculation is now swirling around the Bank of Japan’s next move, as officials weigh potential rate hikes. US pressure could be a factor, adding to market uncertainty. Traders will be watching for any signals from policymakers that may confirm or contradict expectations.

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Claudia Maria Buch, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board, is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at the 18th Finanzplatztag event in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 3, 2025. The event will focus on various topics, including the competitiveness of the German financial sector and regulatory developments.

Additional discussions will cover the impacts of cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and electronic financial instruments. The role of the Frankfurt financial centre will also be addressed as a vital player in the industry. It is expected that the speech may not include detailed insights on the economy or monetary policy.

Regulatory focus and financial stability

Buch’s keynote will likely shape conversations around regulatory adjustments and financial stability. Given her position, any remarks on legislation or oversight will be closely examined, particularly by those directly impacted by financial regulations. It would not be unexpected if she emphasised recent supervisory challenges, areas needing further attention, or future priorities for financial institutions.

With topics such as digital currencies and blockchain also being discussed, attendees will be looking for clarity on how these innovations fit within existing financial structures. Regulatory bodies have maintained an interest in these technologies, weighing both potential risks and advantages. Given the ongoing push for regulatory alignment across Europe, any hints about upcoming frameworks could influence sentiment in these areas.

Frankfurts position in global finance

Frankfurt’s role as a financial hub remains a subject of discussion. Its place in global finance requires ongoing assessments of competitiveness and adaptability. If the event highlights concerns about efficiency or regulation, this could impact the decision-making of firms operating in the region.

It is worth acknowledging that this meeting comes at a time when financial markets continue to absorb previous policy moves. While Buch’s speech may avoid deeper assessments of monetary policy, her perspective on oversight and the financial system’s resilience should not be overlooked. Regulatory expectations shape behaviour, and any indication of policy direction will likely prompt adjustments.

Navigating the evolving financial landscape

For those navigating shifting conditions, understanding official views on regulation and sectoral challenges will be essential. If stricter measures seem likely, it would be sensible to reassess exposure to regulated activities. Whether digital assets, institutional oversight, or broader financial stability take priority in the discussion, reactions will follow accordingly.

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Core inflation in Indonesia registered at 2.48% year-on-year in February, surpassing the anticipated figure of 2.45%. This indicates a slight upward trend in inflationary pressures within the economy.

In related market movements, the AUD/USD pair remains above 0.6200 following positive Chinese manufacturing data. The Euro also displays strength against the US Dollar, trading above 1.0400, boosted by renewed peace efforts in Ukraine.

Gold prices are stabilising after recent lows, as geopolitical and tariff issues continue to generate uncertainty. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced significant rallies over the weekend.

Indonesia’s inflation trend: What it means for markets

The marginal rise in core inflation within Indonesia suggests that pricing pressures are growing, albeit modestly. While the deviation from expectations is not particularly large, it hints at a broader trend that could influence central bank policy in the near term. If inflation continues to push higher, adjustments to interest rates might become a topic of discussion. For traders dealing with derivative instruments linked to Indonesian assets, this is worth keeping an eye on, as shifting expectations around monetary policy could add to volatility.

Over to currency markets, the Australian Dollar remains firm beyond 0.6200, supported by encouraging data from Chinese manufacturing. Given Australia’s reliance on China as a trading partner, healthy economic activity there usually translates into support for the Aussie. Anyone trading derivatives tied to AUD/USD should consider whether this momentum has legs or if resistance levels could cap further upside. On the other hand, the Euro has gained ground against the Dollar, buoyed by renewed diplomatic efforts concerning Ukraine. Market participants appear to be factoring in potential de-escalation, which tends to favour risk-on sentiment. However, traders should remain mindful of how fast sentiment can shift when geopolitical tensions are involved.

Gold prices appear to be steadying following their earlier declines. Despite this, uncertainty around trade policies and global conflicts remains very much in play. Traditionally, gold serves as a safe-haven asset, attracting demand when instability resurfaces. Those engaged in gold futures or options may want to assess whether the current stabilisation phase represents an opportunity for accumulation or if further downside remains possible.

Crypto rallies: Sustainable momentum or short-term hype?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged over the weekend, drawing attention back to the cryptocurrency market. Increased buying interest may signal renewed confidence among investors, though it is worth remembering how quickly sentiment can shift in these markets. For traders working with crypto derivatives, recent price action suggests a period of heightened volatility ahead. Whether this rally has fundamental backing or is driven merely by short-term speculation remains a crucial question. Volatility creates opportunity, but risk management will be absolutely essential.

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XAG/USD recently dropped to $31.13, reflecting nearly a 4% decline for the week. Silver struggled to maintain levels above $33.00, leading to increased selling pressure and a test of the 100-day SMA at $31.20.

Key support levels include the 50-day SMA at $30.89; a break here may expose the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and a January low of $29.70. The metal’s inability to establish a rally above $33.00 has allowed sellers to gain momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Geopolitical risks and market forces

Factors impacting silver prices include geopolitical instability and interest rates, with a strong US Dollar generally hindering price growth. Additionally, industrial demand, particularly from sectors like electronics and solar energy, can cause price fluctuations.

Silver typically mirrors gold price movements, as both assets serve as safe havens. The Gold/Silver ratio is often referenced to assess the relative valuation of the metals, where significant fluctuations can indicate possible undervaluation or overvaluation of either precious metal.

This drop to $31.13, marking a nearly 4% decline in a single week, shows how sentiment has swiftly shifted. Silver struggled to hold above $33.00, which triggered increased selling pressure. Now, the 100-day SMA at $31.20 has been tested, and attention turns to the next support levels.

Looking at the technical picture, the 50-day SMA at $30.89 stands out as a short-term support level. If this fails, the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and the January low of $29.70 come into play. The RSI data confirms that the inability to break past $33.00 has emboldened sellers. When momentum gathers at such key points, traders typically take note of the potential for extended declines.

Industrial demand and long-term trends

Away from charts, broader elements are influencing price action. Geopolitical risks and interest rates remain in focus. A stronger US Dollar tends to weigh on silver, making rallies hard to sustain. At the same time, industrial use plays a role. With silver’s importance in electronics and solar technology, underlying demand can create shifts that some might overlook.

A key relationship to monitor is the link between silver and gold. The two metals often move together since both are seen as safe-haven assets. One common measure is the Gold/Silver ratio, which helps compare valuations. When this ratio moves sharply in one direction, it can suggest that one of the metals may be mispriced relative to the other. Watching for moments when this relationship deviates from historical patterns can be valuable.

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In February 2025, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, surpassing expectations of 50.3 and marking the highest level in three months. Manufacturing growth was supported by increased output and new orders, with export orders rebounding after a two-month downturn.

Workforce numbers decreased for the sixth consecutive month as companies focused on cost reduction, creating a backlog of work. Input costs experienced a slight rise, mainly due to increases in copper and chemical prices, while output prices fell for the third month, largely due to promotional discounts.

Supply chains regain momentum

Logistics improved following the Chinese New Year, as supplier delivery times and purchasing activities increased, though raw material inventories decreased. Businesses expressed optimism about future growth, but concerns regarding employment and household income continue to impact domestic demand.

The official PMIs for February also showed some improvement, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.2, slightly above the expected 50.0, and the services PMI at 50.4, compared to an expectation of 50.3.

Output and orders are moving up, and that is what matters most. February’s numbers reflect a rebound that is modest yet clear. Businesses are selling more, making more, and exporting more. For the first time in three months, the manufacturing sector has stepped back into an expansionary zone. The fact that export orders have swung back from decline suggests external demand is recovering. That is no small detail. Foreign buyers pulling back had weighed on the outlook, creating uncertainty over how long the soft patch would persist. Now, there is proof that orders are returning.

There is still an issue with employment. Companies are still trimming headcounts. The data shows that February was the sixth straight month where businesses reduced staffing levels. The reasoning behind it makes sense—cost control is a priority, and firms remain cautious. Still, fewer workers mean unfinished tasks are piling up. Backlogs usually hint at higher future output, but in this case, they also highlight how firms remain hesitant to expand too quickly.

Pricing pressures remain uneven

Price trends show a mixed picture. Input costs moved up, mostly because of rising commodity expenses. Copper and chemical prices pushed operating costs slightly higher, but on the other end, output prices dropped again. That tells us something important: businesses are still relying on lower prices to keep buyers engaged. Discounts are being used more often, suggesting weak enough demand that companies cannot raise prices with confidence. This disconnect—higher input costs but falling output prices—means margins could face some pressure.

Logistics are back on track. Chinese New Year disruptions are fading, and deliveries are improving. That is notable, as it means supplies are moving more freely again. Purchases by manufacturers have risen, but despite that, raw material inventories have slipped. That could reflect hesitation to hold too much stock or simply increased production eating into reserves. Either way, it reinforces the point that companies are expanding cautiously.

Official figures align with the broader takeaway. The government’s PMI numbers for both manufacturing and services were ahead of estimates. Not by much, but enough to confirm that the economy gained some traction in February. The services sector is still showing growth, which is encouraging, though only slightly better than expected. Taken together, these figures suggest that while activity has picked up, some underlying weaknesses remain.

Optimism among businesses is still there, but so are concerns. Sentiment suggests firms believe things will improve, but worries about jobs and household incomes are keeping domestic demand under pressure. If consumers remain hesitant to spend, that could slow momentum.

For those who focus on price movements, all of this provides useful direction. Input costs are rising, selling prices continue to soften, and demand—both domestic and foreign—remains in a fragile balance. Employment weakness persists, but production is expanding. With these factors at play, the next few weeks could bring more adjustments as businesses navigate these shifting pressures.

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The USD/JPY pair has rallied for three consecutive days, trading above the 150.00 mark after a low of 148.60. Currently priced at 150.59, it needs to surpass 150.93 to break the broader downtrend.

Key resistance levels are set at 151.00 and 151.50. If the pair fails to hold above 150.00, it could decline towards the support level of 148.57.

How central bank policy is shaping price action

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy significantly influences the Yen’s value, alongside the differential between Japanese and US bond yields. In times of market distress, the Yen often strengthens due to its safe-haven status.

We’re seeing a sustained recovery in the pair, but momentum will need an extra push to break out of the broader downtrend. That means traders should keep a close watch on whether it can clear 150.93 in the coming sessions. If that level holds firm against buying pressure, we could see fresh downward movement.

Resistance at 151.00 and 151.50 is within reach, and each test of these levels will indicate whether bullish sentiment has enough fuel to drive an extended rally. A failure to maintain a position above 150.00 could quickly swing sentiment the other way, bringing 148.57 back into focus. That’s the line in the sand where support could stabilise price action.

Monetary policy decisions from Tokyo continue to play a major role in shaping price movements. The contrast between interest rates in Japan and the US remains a defining factor in this trend. This difference affects capital flows, which can push the pair up or down depending on shifts in bond yields. Alongside this, the Yen’s historical position as a safe-haven asset means bouts of market uncertainty could cause rapid strength, even if fundamentals point in the opposite direction.

Key levels to watch in the coming sessions

For short-term positioning, we should assess whether momentum builds towards resistance or if sellers step in before it gets there. If 150.93 proves too much to overcome, a reversal looks more likely. If broken, however, the path towards 151.50 opens up rapidly. The next few sessions will be telling.

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