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The White House asks countries to submit trade proposals by Wednesday as negotiations continue

The White House has confirmed it sent a letter asking countries to share their best trade offers by Wednesday. Since ‘Liberation Day,’ progress on trade deals has been slow, and there is increasing curiosity about the Trump administration’s next moves. According to Reuters, the letter requests information on tariffs, quotas for buying US goods, and plans to remove other trade barriers. There are no immediate actions expected from the White House.

Trade Negotiation Dynamics

The NY Post notes that the letter is more of a progress update with trade partners than a firm request for final offers. However, anticipation is high as the White House announces a call between Trump and Xi Jinping will happen ‘very soon.’ Diplomats’ comments are causing market movements as everyone prepares for this upcoming conversation. This meeting is viewed as a positive step in the ongoing trade talks. Markets tend to see official communication like this letter as significant. When the White House asks global trade partners to refine their terms, it means discussions may be stagnating and need urgent attention. This diplomatic nudge sets clear expectations—either parties speed up negotiations or brace for new challenges. The letter highlights three areas where US trade officials want countries to take action: lowering tariffs, relaxing quotas on American exports, and removing less visible trade obstacles. These obstacles can include regulatory issues or technical standards that complicate the entry of US goods into foreign markets. While it is not a final demand, the upcoming call between Trump and Xi puts extra focus on this request.

Strategic Market Implications

We should view the upcoming statements between Washington and Beijing as pivotal moments, not just formalities. Every word and pause in press briefings can help us assess our market exposure and positioning. When diplomats suggest talks are progressing or show lightheartedness, markets often respond by reducing hedging actions. This is something we need to pay attention to. Timing is essential here. Senior officials are proceeding cautiously but with intention. We think there is active positioning ahead of this expected dialogue, meaning market movements might reflect news updates rather than current fundamentals. This can skew short-term technical levels, impacting options volume and pricing. In this environment, a sudden shift from optimism to harsh rhetoric could cause implied volatility to jump sharply. This would mainly affect short strangles and unhedged calendar spreads. We are careful about holding positions that assume stable outcomes beyond the next settlement cycle. It’s also important to remember that other participants, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, may view the letter differently. While American officials seem to rely on procedural momentum, international counterparts might see it as a return to pressure tactics. This interpretation could delay concessions further and increase volatility. For us, this influences the shape of forward curves, especially in dollar-denominated futures. Given the current risks, it’s a time when protective skew readings might widen. This indicates that downside protection is favored over upside speculation in options markets. In the near term, we are focusing on trades that take advantage of time decay while remaining mindful of tail risks that sudden policy changes could trigger. We are also carefully watching calendar spreads. If the Trump–Xi call takes place before settlement, we may see significant front-end repricing. Delays, conversely, could stabilize the curve and flatten the implied volatility term structure. This guides where we should position for gamma exposure—light and responsive, not heavy and passive. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Nasdaq rises, driven by Nvidia and optimism about AI in various sectors.

The Nasdaq rose by 0.8%, hitting a session high. It gained 149 points, reaching 19,391, and is looking for its highest close since February. However, it remains just below last week’s highest point. Nvidia’s stock jumped 3.2% due to hopes about selling chips to China. This optimism also boosted other chipmakers because of progress in AI technology. Power and utility stocks are benefiting from Meta’s agreement with Constellation, indicating a rising need for AI-related energy.

Energy Stocks Show Strength

Energy stocks are performing well, supported by a $1.23 increase in crude oil prices. This is the second day of gains, following an increase in OPEC production. The Nasdaq has made a noticeable increase, up 0.8% in this session, adding 149 points to reach 19,391. This is its highest gain since February. Yet, it hasn’t surpassed last week’s peak, suggesting that while momentum is returning, it hasn’t fully broken out. Nvidia rose more than 3%, fueled by optimism about chip sales to China. According to Huang, the complexity of chip availability for that market still exists, but investors believe that restrictions could ease or become more predictable. This belief has helped boost similar firms. The excitement extends beyond just one export channel, as there’s a growing interest in AI-related revenue potential. Jensen’s comments on data center growth are also supporting this optimism. Meta’s new agreement with Constellation about electricity supply has drawn attention in a sector not usually associated with tech—utilities. This contract indicates that large AI applications will need significantly more power than earlier demand models predicted. For those trading derivatives linked to utilities or energy, this shift in demand forecasts is important. While short-term volatility may arise, power producers with long-term contracts or flexible capacity could benefit from this demand change.

OPEC’s Influence on Oil Prices

Oil prices have risen for two consecutive days, totaling more than $2 a barrel, driven by supply-side actions. OPEC’s decision to increase output has created positive sentiment, even though overall demand forecasts remain steady. Traders should be cautious about chasing this recent rally, particularly if upcoming inventory data reveals different trends. Still, integrated producers and commodity-related currencies reacted positively. The focus should be on identifying sectors with strong fundamentals rather than simply chasing the fastest-moving stocks. Sectors that are expanding infrastructure or specializing in technology may see more stable growth, especially as enthusiasm spreads. The growth in energy and semiconductors is not random—they are linked through the influence of artificial intelligence. Right now, what makes derivatives particularly intriguing is how these themes come together. When sentiment remains consistent across multiple market segments, our models tend to gain predictive strength. For those with directional exposure, understanding what drives sectors like chips and oil is vital to distinguish between noise and meaningful signals. Factors such as policies in China, AI server demand, and energy supply agreements all play a significant role. Be mindful of volatility as we approach the end of the quarter. Pricing for futures and swaps might become inconsistent toward the end of the trading month. It’s essential to adjust your exposure, especially as assumptions about demand and supply control (like OPEC meetings) become more pronounced. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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USD/JPY rises over a cent thanks to economic resilience and positive trade developments.

The US dollar strengthened today, with the USD/JPY rising by 109 pips to 143.78, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses. This increase follows a JOLTS report revealing more job openings and comments from Atlanta Fed President about interest rate policies. Economic predictions indicate an 85% chance of a rate cut in September, with another expected in December. However, the Federal Open Market Committee is currently taking a ‘wait and see’ stance, focusing on the near future. Despite worries about tariffs, recent insights show that consumer spending is still strong.

Geopolitical Tensions And Trade Talks

Geopolitical issues continue, especially concerning Russia’s potential response to drone strikes and ongoing Iran negotiations. There is excitement around US-China discussions, with a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Hopes are rising for resolving the trade war, including talks of lowering tariffs below 10%. On the USD/JPY chart, the pair has stayed above the 142.00 support level, hinting at a possible bottom. This level is important for analyzing market movements. The rise in USD/JPY should not merely be seen as a rebound but as a sign of growing risk appetite in the markets, highlighted by the JOLTS data reaction. The increase in job openings suggests that the US economy’s momentum remains strong, despite expectations for more lenient policies later this year. Bostic’s comments have also cast some doubt on quick rate changes. His view that current monetary policy is adequate suggests that any changes might be delayed—especially if inflation data remains inconsistent. This situation introduces a timing challenge for those tracking central bank decisions, which often cause volatility from both what is said and what is omitted. While the chance of a rate cut in September is significant, we need to assess whether the market is overestimating this possibility. If upcoming data—like payrolls, CPI, or stronger PMI—proves robust again, we might lean toward only one cut by year-end. This would limit potential dollar weakness in the short term, prompting traders to adjust positions that stray too far from expected ranges.

Monitoring Market Reactions And Economic Releases

We are also keeping an eye on tensions in Europe and the Middle East, not just politically but because they could affect safe haven flows. If the situation with Russia escalates or nuclear talks with Iran stall, the yen’s behavior could be temporarily distorted. This may not stem from fundamental drivers, but from increased demand for safety, particularly during low liquidity times. Such conditions could create short-term resistance near current highs. We’ll be paying close attention during Asian trading hours. Markets are pricing in renewed optimism surrounding trade talks, especially if import tariffs are reduced or eased before any official summit. If these developments continue, we expect some demand to flow back into cyclical currencies, which could limit further dollar gains. This might prompt USD/JPY to dip slightly, possibly toward earlier support levels just above 142.50 if momentum begins to fade into next week. Regarding the technical landscape, there is strong demand re-emerging when prices dip to the 142.00–142.40 range, reaffirming this area as significant psychological and structural support. It’s not only where buyers have stepped in before, but it also aligns with key moving averages and long-term strategies. Unless unexpected external events increase volatility, most short-term indicators suggest no dramatic declines past these levels. We should also observe that positioning data indicates no broad sell-off of dollar longs, meaning many traders are still committed to their core views. They are likely adjusting their positions at the margins rather than making drastic changes. Therefore, corrections are likely to be shallow unless triggered by significant surprises from policymakers or macroeconomic data. As we approach the next set of economic releases, especially payroll and inflation figures, we need to be alert for any discrepancies between data and market pricing. If this gap widens, we can expect heightened volatility around opening ranges, with spreads potentially widening during low liquidity times. This is where risk management becomes crucial. For now, dollar strength appears stable but fragile, dependent more on avoiding disappointing data than on new positive surprises. Until there is more clarity in the macroeconomic landscape and trade discussions evolve beyond headlines, short-term positioning should remain balanced. Keep an eye on headline risks and be mindful of swings driven by catalysts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GDT price index for New Zealand falls by 1.6%, whole milk powder decreases by 3.7%

The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index dropped by 1.6% in the latest dairy auction. This follows a previous decline of 0.9%, showing a continuing trend downward. Whole milk powder experienced a decline of 3.7%, which contributed to the overall decrease in the GDT Price Index. While dairy used to be a major part of the New Zealand economy, its influence is now less significant.

Ongoing Decline and Global Effects

The recent drop in the GDT Price Index, coming right after the earlier fall, shows a clear downward trend. With another 1.6% decrease in overall prices and a 3.7% drop in whole milk powder, these numbers indicate weakening demand and possible oversupply issues. The GDT figures are released every two weeks and can provide important insights into global dairy demand and overall commodity sentiment. For those trading commodities and currency derivatives, these price trends can have significant impacts. While New Zealand’s economy still relies on dairy income, it is not as dependent as it was in the past. Changes in milk powder prices can affect other asset classes, influencing expectations for interest rates and altering forward yield curves. A decline in dairy prices, especially over several auctions, often lowers inflation expectations. Since global central banks are trying to balance controlling inflation and maintaining demand, any data that eases long-term price pressures can shift sentiment towards holding current rates or potentially lowering them. Carter at ANZ noted last quarter that tradables inflation was already softer, and these price signals may support that outlook. This context is crucial when evaluating New Zealand dollar (NZD) forward contracts. A decline in the NZD, particularly against the AUD or USD, often follows ongoing price drops in exports. For traders focused on currency pairs, this creates tension around inflation bets. Additionally, the volatility of options linked to the NZD has increased slightly, indicating that the market is preparing for more unpredictable short-term movements. Although the dairy index may not make headlines, its influence is significant.

Future Trading Considerations and Risks

As Evans mentioned in his macro update, economies driven by commodities are impacted not just by price drops but by the stories these drops create. These narratives often spread more quickly through trader positions than through data updates. This can cause derivatives markets to react ahead of central bank announcements. Looking ahead to the next auction, we may see more risk-off hedging. Short-end swaps have started to flatten, and this auction result indicates a lack of near-term interest in rate hikes. Thus, defensive trading strategies that once seemed optional may now be necessary. It wouldn’t be surprising if fixed-income desks increased their bids on bond futures by the end of next week. Traders employing cross-commodity strategies might find opportunities in the differing performances between dairy and other agricultural exports. Wheat and soy prices have remained stable this quarter, providing a chance for relative price movements that lend themselves to calendar spreads or agricultural debt hedges. Finally, as Mackie emphasized during last month’s positioning webinar, the response from futures desks has accelerated. The outcomes of these auctions and their immediate effects will soon extend beyond local markets. Higher trading activity in companies tied to dairy or NZD-sensitive ETFs is likely to impact trading throughout Asia-Pac hours, influencing both regional and broader G10 currency flows. This is not just a secondary issue; it’s the backdrop against which the coming month is starting to take shape. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Bostic calls for patience in monetary policy, considering a rate cut based on economic conditions

The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve believes that the best approach to monetary policy right now is to be patient. He isn’t in a hurry to change the policy but thinks there might be one interest rate cut this year, depending on how the economy performs. There’s some doubt about whether the Fed would lower rates if it weren’t for current uncertainties. The effects of tariffs on inflation are unclear, even though the job market seems healthy, with some signs of weakness. The Fed remains concerned about core prices.

Wait And Observe

Bostic has made it clear that the Federal Reserve’s current strategy is to wait and observe. They are not hesitant; instead, they are being careful and looking at all incoming data. The markets are hoping for clear signals about future rate changes, but Bostic emphasizes that cuts are not guaranteed. If they happen, they will likely be few and happen later in the year. The idea of a potential rate cut is important to note. It is not seen as immediate or certain. It relies on whether inflation shows steady improvement while the economy grows without overheating. The Fed wants to let data guide their decisions rather than forcing outcomes based on expectations. One unresolved issue is how trade policy affects inflation. Bostic spoke cautiously because the effects of tariffs can be unpredictable. They can impact both consumer prices and business costs, sometimes with delays. These changes can confuse the Fed’s view of inflation trends, making it hard to tell if price increases are temporary or more permanent. On the employment front, the job market appears stable, but there are early signs of slowing. While overall job growth is strong, some areas suggest demand for labor could be decreasing. This should, in theory, help reduce inflation driven by wages. However, the Fed is concerned that if core prices remain stubborn, they may need to keep monetary policy tight longer than the markets would like.

Risk Perspective

From a risk perspective, this cautious policy approach leans more towards caution than anticipation. We see this in the trends of rate futures and volatility. Expectations for rate cuts have been declining, aligning with the messages from policymakers like Bostic. Yields have adjusted in response, with long-term inflation expectations slightly increasing. This isn’t a change that requires immediate action but does prompt a reevaluation of investments tied to early rate cuts. Instruments linked to short-term rates should be recalibrated to reflect a less aggressive easing path. Traders should start modeling longer hold periods before any changes occur. Expectations for mid-year or early Q3 cuts now carry more risk. Regarding volatility, implied rates on short-term contracts are likely to stay high due to uncertainty over tariff impacts and the durability of services inflation. Premiums on credit-sensitive derivatives may also reflect a possibility that this cautious approach could last longer, given the Fed’s cautious stance amid uncertainty. Moving forward, we need to consider not just price direction but also how long the current situation will continue. There are signs that financial conditions are stable even without further easing, meaning the Fed might not feel pressured to act soon. This keeps near-term rate cuts unlikely. Lastly, we must be more attuned to inflation data going forward. Without immediate reasons to change course, the focus now shifts to disinflation. Any surprising increases in services CPI or wage data should be viewed as potentially sticking around, rather than temporary. Bostic’s comments—open to cuts but not in a hurry—should influence strategies across the market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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US stock markets open steady after recovering from earlier losses in S&P 500 futures

US stock markets opened without major changes, bouncing back from early worries. The S&P 500 futures were initially negative but eventually returned to their starting level. The S&P 500 is down by just 1 point, while the Nasdaq remains stable. People are eagerly waiting for possible announcements from the White House later today.

Market Hesitation

Today’s trading started with a bit of uncertainty, which wasn’t surprising given the focus on upcoming political and economic hints. The S&P 500 opening nearly unchanged, along with a steady Nasdaq, indicates that investors are hesitant to make big moves either way. It’s noteworthy that futures turned around after early losses, signaling caution rather than anxiety in the market. This type of trading usually shows that participants are neither overly pessimistic nor fully confident about rising prices. Such movement often reflects a balance between short-term positions and longer-term outlooks. We’ve seen these types of trading sessions before, where traders adjust their positions while they wait for clearer signals. McCarthy mentions there’s a calm atmosphere among institutional traders, but with an undercurrent of alertness. They expect updates from Washington later today. While discussions have been lively, the market’s reaction suggests that immediate policy changes affecting interest rates or budgets are unlikely. It appears there’s a collective holding of breath as options expiration approaches.

Gamma and Market Dynamics

From a derivatives perspective, today’s trading encourages us to look at gamma positioning. Flat openings after weak overnight trading can indicate that dealers are neutral or slightly short on gamma. This is important. If trading remains stable near key levels, we might see low volatility unless news quickly shifts sentiment. If you hold short-term options, you could face losses in these flat conditions, unless you have a clear directional view. Earlier this week, Ross noted that fund managers have shifted their investments, moving from aggressive growth stocks to more stable cash-flow options. While this isn’t a major concern on its own, it leads to valuations that are less responsive to market noise. Implied volatility remains steady, especially in tech-heavy sectors, which may encourage some traders to take risks—until it becomes too much. Trading options during these key moments requires discipline. When prices stabilize throughout the day, the focus shifts from “What do we think?” to “What is already factored in?” This difference often reflects in the skew levels, especially on the downside. There’s minimal premium being paid for protection right now, and if we are planning for risks in the upcoming week, that’s a point to watch. If unexpected news arises, the market adjustments could be sharp. Markets often move slowly until suddenly they don’t. That’s why it’s vital to pay attention to vanna flows and hedging around significant levels, as these can provide important signals. Most trading activity will revolve around known risk events, with many players closely tracking adjustments to interest rate expectations and fiscal directives. Until a significant change occurs, positioning will focus on managing time decay rather than strong directional bets. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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He Lifeng’s tough negotiating style contrasts with Liu He’s approach, creating challenges in US-China trade relations

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading trade talks with the US, taking a tougher approach than his predecessor, Liu He. This shift may complicate efforts to lower trade tensions, especially as people hope for less conflict while Trump is still in office. According to Xi Jinping, China is better prepared for negotiations now than during the trade war of 2018-2019. He has put together a team ready to take a firm stance, moving away from the unequal agreements of the past, often referred to as the ‘century of humiliation.’

Potential New Agreement

There is a chance for a new agreement similar to the Phase One deal. Under this arrangement, China would agree to buy US products in exchange for benefits, but China expects equal commitments in return. The current negotiations show a tougher position from Beijing, guided by Lifeng, who has replaced Liu He. The discussions are sharper now, emphasizing that past imbalances will no longer be tolerated. Xi’s team appears more organized and is less inclined to rush to a settlement. While a structure like the Phase One agreement may return, it will not be on the same terms. China sees itself as an equal partner in these talks and wants enforceable reciprocity, not just vague promises. Given this firmness, we need to change how we view cross-border economic negotiations. We can no longer assume that diplomatic gestures will quickly lead to clear outcomes. In the coming weeks, sharp headlines may not closely match price movements, but they still matter. This suggests a shift that could lead to more strategic management of positions—being less reactive and more selective.

Implications of China’s Firmness

If China continues its current negotiating approach and introduces more financial or policy elements, we might see bursts of volatility instead of a steady spread throughout trading sessions. This means timing becomes even more critical for entering new trades or adjusting existing ones. The main focus remains on trade. However, we need to pay attention to how expectations adjust due to these changes. Shifts in tone from leaders may not immediately impact big indicators, but they influence sentiment, which affects liquidity around trades and index-linked assets. We have already seen some compression in implied volatility across key contracts, which seems misaligned with current headlines. This often unravels quickly when sentiment aligns with fundamentals. Trades that used to reliably signal policy direction are becoming less predictable. Observing a quick drop in long-dated exposure volume is notable—investors aren’t committing deeply. Now, the focus is shifting to whether the return to structured purchases will be seen as a starting point or a demand. If it’s the former, the usual indicators in agriculture and tech should become active again. If it’s the latter, traders will likely be more cautious, taking shorter positions and hedging more aggressively. This creates an uneven reaction—steady expectations in official statements may slow forward pricing, while surprising softening can lead to rapid recoveries. This pattern isn’t unusual, but it’s now more actionable than before. Beijing’s preparedness suggests less risk of misinterpreting tough talk as concessions. This limits reactive pricing to actual order data or customs reports. Despite increased focus, many assets still show lower realized volatility outside of major catalysts. This is where patience is essential. There’s an opportunity here for those looking to benefit from expectation gaps—just be mindful when changes arise. Volume trends provide insights. Shorter-term positions show more confidence, while longer ones hesitate. This likely reflects a lack of trust in the durability of these positions under policy strain. This changes how we view market ramps. Movements often start slowly and then accelerate once confirmed. We need to adapt our strategy accordingly. The first trade usually doesn’t follow through fully—it’s often the second move that provides a clearer opportunity. This indicates a market that is still navigating uncertainty but is ready to pivot. As we analyze flow direction and net positioning, we are observing the gap between how headlines are interpreted and how instruments respond. That gap is likely to close once traders adjust to this new negotiation rhythm—one that speaks less but carries greater weight when it does. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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U.S. consumers keep spending strongly, despite low confidence levels, as executives assure resilience

Recent remarks from bank and credit card leaders indicate that US consumer spending remains steady, even with low consumer confidence. Executives from Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, American Express, Visa, and Bank of America have a positive outlook on spending trends. Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron attributed the strength of the US economy to solid employment and fiscal policies. Mastercard’s CEO Michael Miebach mentioned that spending patterns have stayed stable from the first quarter through May, despite negative news. American Express CEO Steve Squeri highlighted strong consumer spending across various sectors, especially in restaurants. Visa CFO Christopher Suh noted that payment volume data is consistent, showing consumers’ resilience.

Resilience of the US Economy

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan shared that consumer spending is up this year, indicating a strong economic base supported by consumers. Together, these comments provide an encouraging view of US consumer spending. This positive trend is likely to continue unless significant economic changes occur. The key takeaway is that consumers remain active. Even though surveys show low confidence, people’s behavior tells a different story. Executives from major financial institutions report that spending, dining out, and everyday activities continue as usual. Not one of them noted a significant drop in discretionary spending. Waldron linked steady spending to stable jobs and supportive fiscal policies. Jobs are crucial for household budgets, and his comments suggest there is no widespread anxiety about job losses. Miebach reinforced this by highlighting that spending patterns have remained steady despite negative headlines, signaling that consumers are not reacting with unnecessary caution. Squeri provided a breakdown of spending by categories, emphasizing the importance of restaurant performance. When people start cutting back, they usually reduce non-essential spending first. The fact that restaurants continue to thrive indicates that households feel secure enough to spend on leisure, not just necessities. Suh shared data on payment volumes, which reflects overall consumer behavior. His remarks suggest that spending levels have not drastically changed, providing reassurance about consumer health.

Economic Implications and Market Positioning

Moynihan directly referred to year-to-date trends, a timeframe that reflects true consumer behavior. His notes on increasing spending into mid-year imply solid consumer activity. What does this mean for us? It reduces the uncertainty traders often face. Low confidence usually suggests caution, but when spending remains strong, it limits how bearish predictions can be. Traders betting on a quick downturn may find less incentive to act given this information. Consumer credit conditions are likely to show signs of trouble before this group signals any significant issues. It’s important to note that inflation remains a factor, and while wage growth isn’t directly addressed, the strength of consumer spending may put pressure on expectations around interest rate cuts. If consumers are still actively spending and no major downturn is seen by large card processors or banks, the Federal Reserve may feel less inclined to change rates quickly. This ongoing consumer activity may also prevent the volatility some expect in retail-heavy equity indices. Short-term traders should consider that there is no clear directional signal from consumer spending. Implied volatility may remain low, and it seems more likely for consumer sectors to stabilize based on this data. When sizing positions related to services or discretionary spending, one should recognize the surprisingly strong footing of consumers. Sentiment-driven setups based solely on consumer surveys may not find strong support from the actual transaction data. Overall, we see a market that is managing downside concerns more effectively than surface data suggests. Traders focused on short-term moves should align with the stability highlighted by these corporate leaders—at least for now. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Today’s Swiss CPI drops into negative territory, while Eurozone CPI falls below expectations amid ongoing market adjustments.

Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a negative result, which was in line with expectations. The core inflation reading fell to 0.5% from 0.6%. Despite this, market expectations remain unchanged, with a 55 basis points (bps) cut expected by the end of the year and a 34% chance of a 50 bps cut at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting next. In the Eurozone, CPI figures did not meet expectations. Core inflation decreased to 2.3% from 2.7%, and services inflation dropped to 3.2% from 4.0%. However, this has not impacted the market outlook, as a 25 bps cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected this week, with the possibility of more cuts by year-end.

Central Bank Leaders

During the session, central bank leaders spoke, but they didn’t provide any new guidance. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Ueda said that rate hikes will depend on certain inflation and trade conditions. Representatives from the Bank of England (BoE) believe that disinflation is likely to continue, with rates expected to drop due to growth risks that are not fully reflected in GDP data. In the U.S., attention shifts to Job Openings data, which is anticipated to decline to 7.100 million from 7.192 million. This change is not expected to significantly impact markets, given that Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports are expected soon. Recent figures show a consistent trend: inflation is decreasing in many developed economies, and central banks are monitoring it closely. In Switzerland, both headline and core inflation have declined, matching earlier estimates. Money markets suggest traders expect continued easing, with a firm consensus for a total of 55 bps in rate cuts by year-end. This indicates that market participants are focusing more on broader disinflation trends rather than short-term fluctuations. In the Euro area, CPI data surprises support those anticipating quicker monetary easing. The reduction in services inflation is especially noteworthy. This measure is often used to gauge long-term inflation pressures, as it is less influenced by energy prices or seasonal changes. The drop from 4.0% to 3.2% indicates that wage pressures and internal demand are not as strong as previously feared. The expected rate cut in June seems more like the start of a series of actions rather than a one-time event, as swap markets are pricing in additional cuts for later in the year.

Policy Outlook

BoJ’s Ueda maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing that policymakers are willing to wait for data to provide clarity, especially regarding wages and external demand. His remarks aligned with previous statements, indicating no immediate action is expected. In the UK, Monetary Policy Committee members were clearer, mentioning that weakening domestic output and underlying issues in GDP are hard to ignore. Their perspective suggests that rates are currently too high for the prevailing conditions and may need to be lowered. This viewpoint is based not only on GDP but also on demand indicators and inflation expectations, both of which have softened recently. In the U.S., the upcoming job openings data will complete the labor market picture, but market experts don’t expect significant movement from this report alone, as the numbers have been gradually declining. More focus is on upcoming jobless claims and employment data, which carry more future implications. If job growth continues to slow or fails to pick up, it will have a more direct impact on market pricing. Traders focused on volatility and rate decisions should pay more attention to the overall sentiment in central bank discussions, especially regarding growth. Inflation is weakening across the board, but it’s the recognition of slowing growth that will shift monetary easing from a mere expectation to an urgent necessity. This change in sentiment can be more impactful than a single month’s data and often occurs quietly. Positioning before central bank meetings should reflect this shift. We believe that the cautious stance in recent sessions indicates that many traders are still prepared for a slower pace of easing than the data suggests is prudent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The US urges Vietnam to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains during trade negotiations.

The United States has given Vietnam a long list of demands during ongoing tariff talks. A main point is for Vietnam to lessen its reliance on Chinese supply chains. These negotiations are complicated. Vietnam tries to balance its trade relationships, while the US is wary of China using Vietnam as a way to bypass trade rules—this is known as origin washing.

What is Origin Washing?

Origin washing happens when goods’ origins are misstated to avoid trade regulations. This makes it harder to reach a fair trade agreement. The US has made it clear that supply chain transparency is crucial, especially for imported goods that might not accurately reflect their path to the American market. By identifying Vietnam as a possible loophole for Chinese products, the focus has turned to strict enforcement rather than just cooperation. As a result, tariff discussions have moved from theoretical to concrete, where compliance and documentation are essential. This shift could lead to delays in product approvals or require more paperwork at ports. Even companies with established trade links through Vietnam might face increased scrutiny. What started as simple tariff discussions has evolved into a complex issue of supply chain management, which could hinder progress in other trade areas if not managed carefully.

Impact on Global Trade

Yellen’s team is likely coordinating this pressure with larger efforts to control the flow of high-tech parts, metals, and finished goods being rerouted through Southeast Asia. Washington aims to spot potential issues early, especially when changes in the flow of components indicate attempts to avoid tariffs. For those monitoring short-term market fluctuations, this heightened pressure on Vietnam’s trade practices may impact import volumes and commodity prices tied to electronics and textiles. We can expect information releases to cause price swings, and technical resistance levels may not hold up amid this uncertainty. While Hanoi appears calm publicly, internal signs show they are preparing for tighter inspections on shipments to the US, as this could affect their export economy’s stability. US trade officials suggest there won’t be many second chances. Future quotas and exemptions may not easily be renegotiated, so any fleeting optimism should be approached with caution. This situation calls for tighter hedging strategies. Spreads in derivatives linked to Vietnam could narrow if market sentiment shifts back to traditional Asian suppliers. However, if tensions rise, even secure options trades might lose effectiveness. Multi-asset strategies should adjust exposure to reflect low-certainty trade variables. Cash positions might need to be rebuilt in the coming sessions if they’ve been temporarily reduced. It’s unlikely US negotiators raised these concerns without supporting data for enforcement follow-through. This means changes in Vietnam’s customs activity are not only likely but can be tracked against past averages. If monitoring tools like shipping manifests detect changes, derivatives tied to ASEAN export levels may lead relevant benchmarks by several days. This is just the beginning. A declining interest in risk trades tied to regional processing could influence options pricing for key industrial inputs, especially those with complicated routing. These are not speculative worries—they’re direct consequences of tighter customs networks. In short, regulatory issues are shaping contract terms long before shipping docks come into play. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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