Gold prices slipped to $3,216 per ounce on Friday, pressured by diminished demand for safe-haven assets as global sentiment improved in response to several diplomatic advances. The precious metal is heading for a weekly decline of over 3%, having retreated from an earlier session high of $3,252.23.

The principal catalyst for the pullback was a temporary thaw in trade relations between the United States and China, with both nations agreeing to suspend tariffs for 90 days. This gesture eased investor concerns over the potential economic fallout from extended protectionist policies, at least in the near term.

Other geopolitical flashpoints appear to be stabilising, adding to the pressure. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan remains intact, and although peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, they have not sparked renewed flight-to-safety behaviour in the markets.

Nonetheless, the macroeconomic backdrop remains broadly supportive of gold. Recent US inflation data came in softer than expected, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to commence interest rate reductions, potentially twice before the year’s end. Markets are currently factoring in 50 basis points in rate cuts, possibly starting as early as July.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell urged caution in his latest remarks, warning that inflation may become increasingly erratic due to continued supply-side disruptions. This uncertainty could make it more difficult for central banks to maintain price stability and, in turn, renew investor interest in gold as a hedge against monetary policy volatility.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices initially extended their rebound, surging from a session low of 3120.81 to test resistance at 3252.23 before retreating. The strong upside move was supported by a bullish MACD crossover and upward momentum through the 5-, 10-, and 30-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. However, the rally lost steam just below the 3260 mark, where sellers re-entered the market.

Following the peak, bearish pressure set in, sending gold back below the 30-period MA and prompting a corrective pullback toward the 3215 area. The MACD histogram has flattened, and the signal lines are converging, suggesting the rally may be pausing. Immediate support lies around 3206, while resistance remains firm near 3250. A break below 3200 could open the door to 3180, whereas a bullish resurgence above 3252 would revalidate the uptrend.

Cautious Outlook

In the short term, gold may struggle to regain its upward momentum amid improving risk appetite and subdued inflationary pressures. That said, lingering geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policy expectations continue to provide underlying support. Any setbacks in trade discussions or renewed volatility in inflation could revive demand for gold as a defensive asset, with the $3,160 level likely to act as a key floor.

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The U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary has assured us that rising prices aren’t a cause for concern, and inflation is expected to return to normal levels. The U.S. economy seems ready to pick up speed in the second half of the year. There’s confidence that the first date, when we may need to think about raising the debt ceiling, is in August. Deputy Secretary Adeyemo’s statements reflect a calm perspective on inflation in the near future, suggesting that recent price hikes are under control and not gaining speed. This differs from recent data showing ongoing cost pressures, especially in housing and energy, although core inflation has eased a bit. His reassurances are based on confidence in the Federal Reserve’s plans and the strong job market. When he mentioned the “X date”—the time when the U.S. government may stop meeting its financial obligations unless the debt ceiling is raised—being set for August, it indicates that Treasury cash flow and tax revenues are better than expected. This gives us some relief from worries about financial disruptions, easing pressure in the bond and funding markets. The timeline also reduces stress on short-term bills, which have faced challenges due to earlier deadlines. We can conclude that interest rate expectations will respond to upcoming inflation data, but guidance from the Fed and Treasury will be even more crucial. Futures markets have been volatile, influenced by Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) updates. While uncertainty about rate paths has decreased slightly, significant fluctuations around major events are still likely. With yields pulling back from their recent peaks and the U.S. dollar weakening, there could be more movement if June data surprises us. This means that volatility premiums are likely to stay high, particularly in short-term interest rate (STIR) markets. It’s wise to keep implied volatility marked aggressively rather than letting it decay too rapidly since the short gamma trade currently isn’t providing the expected cushion. Yellen’s department prefers to increase bill issuance at the front end of the curve, which helps keep longer-term rates steady. This approach could maintain a flattening trend unless new growth data is strong enough to prompt a shift in the Fed’s outlook. Consequently, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has maintained a narrow spread to its upper target, reflecting stable conditions in the repo market. Next, we will focus on treasury auctions and how they cope with rising supply. If demand seems risky or falters further, it could put pressure on positions, especially for those heavily investing or relying on balance sheets. We’ve noticed a pattern of cautious activity at the beginning of the week, with increased trading later on—this trend may continue for now. We’ll also be watching for any Fed updates about the balance sheet, particularly if Treasury reinvestments slow down, which may affect dollar liquidity perceptions. If that occurs, spreads on front-end Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) could widen as cash gets pulled in. This flow could disrupt calm on the rate front, leading to adjustments in volatility curves across intermediate rates. We need to stay alert—continuing to manage our strategies and focusing on opportunities where market instability aligns with pricing inefficiencies. There’s a lot ahead that may require ongoing adjustments.

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The NZD/USD exchange rate is around 0.5900, facing pressure due to cautious market sentiment and mixed economic signals. Even with weaker-than-expected US inflation and retail sales data, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped support the US Dollar. Recent US data showed the Producer Price Index rose by 2.4% in April, slightly below the expected 2.5%. Retail Sales increased by 0.1%, which was lower than market expectations. These outcomes have led to speculation about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025. Powell mentioned the need to revisit policy frameworks because of ongoing supply issues, which contributed to the US Dollar’s stability.

New Zealand Economic Conditions

In New Zealand, recent fiscal announcements had little effect on the NZD. Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced a NZ$190 million social investment fund aimed at supporting vulnerable groups. However, the market’s focus is shifting to upcoming reports, like the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index and the RBNZ inflation expectations survey, which could affect future rate decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains in a bearish trend, fluctuating between 0.5860 and 0.5916. The Relative Strength Index and MACD show weak momentum. Neutral signals from Stochastic %K, CCI, and Bull Bear Power imply limited chances for a rebound. Short-term indicators suggest continued downward pressure, with only the 100-day SMA providing slight support. Crucial support levels are 0.5860, 0.5846, and 0.5829, while resistance sits at 0.5878, 0.5883, and 0.5884. The current price of NZD/USD near 0.5900 indicates weakness in the Kiwi, with limited market enthusiasm and global uncertainties affecting demand. This pressure persists even though US inflation is lower than expected and retail sales have shown only modest growth. Despite these US data points, the US Dollar remains stable, largely due to Powell’s comments that eased fears of a rapid policy shift.

Market Reactions and Implications

Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve must adjust its economic models due to ongoing supply disruptions, signaling a cautious approach to future rate changes—more about monitoring inflation risks than immediate cuts. This cautious tone helped stabilize the US Dollar for now. For those engaged in currency contracts, this could be significant as summer approaches, especially regarding the timing of the first potential rate cut. Meanwhile, across the Tasman, New Zealand’s fiscal measures to boost domestic sentiment didn’t make much of an impact in the currency market. Willis’s announcement about investing in vulnerable sectors could lead to long-term changes, but the FX market remained largely indifferent. Upcoming releases, like the Business NZ Manufacturing Index and the Reserve Bank’s inflation expectations, are expected to have a greater impact on monetary policy directions set by the RBNZ. From a technical standpoint, the pair is restricted by clear resistance levels, just under 0.5920. The trading range of 0.5860 to 0.5916 suggests inactivity with a negative bias. Current chart indicators do not indicate a breakout. The RSI is close to oversold territory without divergence. The MACD is below the signal line, and oscillators like Stochastic %K and CCI indicate uncertainty—neither buyers nor sellers seem ready to take control. The 100-day simple moving average still provides some support, but the general trend points downward. A drop to 0.5846 or even 0.5829 shouldn’t be ruled out if sentiment stays weak. On the other hand, any recovery attempts will face resistance between 0.5878 and 0.5884. A convincing move above these levels is needed to change the current outlook. In summary, the US continues to take a cautious approach regarding rate cuts, despite softness in consumer spending. Meanwhile, New Zealand looks to upcoming data for potential changes, although early signs suggest that traders prefer short or flat positions. The market continues to react to macroeconomic signals and technical trends, indicating thoughtful hesitation rather than impulsive moves. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, says there is still a chance the U.S. could fall into a recession. He points to federal deficits, ongoing inflation, and the possibility of rising long-term interest rates as factors that could trigger this downturn. Even though the equity markets seem stable, Dimon urges caution. He explains that while the bank’s economists can make forecasts, they cannot predict how severe or long-lasting any economic downturn might be. JPMorgan’s research team has lowered the likelihood of a recession to “below 50 percent,” changing their earlier outlook based on tariff policies.

Recession concerns persist

Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist, warns that risks remain “elevated.” This has led many businesses to hesitate on making new investments. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve may start tapering in the first quarter of 2022, with possible interest rate hikes in 2024. Dimon is cautioning about the future, not just because of what we know now, but due to the multiple pressures affecting the economy. He highlights ongoing budget problems and stubbornly high inflation that traditional methods cannot easily address. This indicates a challenging economic environment where financial support may not be as effective and where policy options are limited. When Feroli discusses businesses holding back on investments, he suggests this isn’t just indecision. It’s a sign of deeper concerns influencing decisions across many industries. Companies usually don’t pause like this without significant reasons; such reluctance often comes before changes in overall demand. It isn’t necessarily fear but rather a careful calculation considering current factors like narrower profit margins, unpredictable costs, and uncertainty about labor and interest rates.

Tracking policy signals

Looking at monetary policy, Goldman’s forecasts for rate changes indicate a measured approach rather than an aggressive one, expecting a gradual return to normal as long as things stay stable. However, this forecast can change. If spending slows down faster than anticipated or if financial issues arise unexpectedly, we may see guidance adjusted again. Right now, it’s important to closely monitor treasury yields, especially those in the seven-to-ten-year range, where rate changes typically occur before official statements. Given the current indicators and policymakers’ strategies, we are evaluating the flattening curve against inflation-linked assets as the next test of market sentiment. The focus is no longer just on predicting policy moves but also on understanding how hesitation in capital spending relates to central bank timelines. For our positioning, we are reviewing short-term contracts most sensitive to volatility linked to policy announcements and data releases such as consumer price indices, core spending trends, and unemployment claims. When expectations narrow, market reactions become sharper. Although the likelihood of a recession has decreased to below fifty percent, we don’t see this reduction in risk as a sign that everything is okay. Statements from Feroli and movements from Goldman show some cautious optimism but also recognize a crucial point: the margin for error is currently smaller than it has been in the last two tightening cycles. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Walmart’s stock improved during Thursday’s afternoon session after initially falling over 5%, despite exceeding expectations for the first quarter. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $0.61, beating the forecast of $0.58, and reported revenue of $165.6 billion, which was over $2 billion higher than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes Walmart, also recovered, gaining 0.4% in the afternoon. A report indicated that wholesale prices dropped more than anticipated, while US Retail Sales for April only rose by 0.1% month-on-month, influencing market sentiment.

ECommerce Growth and International Performance

In the last quarter, Walmart saw a 22% annual increase in Global eCommerce and a remarkable 50% jump in international advertising revenue. Comparable sales in the US rose by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding the 3.9% forecast. US transactions and average purchase amounts also grew, although international sales were down by 0.3%. Walmart’s leadership expects price increases due to tariffs, causing them to withhold EPS and operating income guidance for Q2, though they expect $167.8 billion in revenue. Full-year net sales are estimated to grow by 3% to 4%, with operating income projected to rise by 3.5% to 5.5%. For Walmart’s stock to gain bullish momentum, it needs to convincingly break the $100 mark. The closeness of the 200-day Simple Moving Average to the 50-day average could affect the stock price. Overall, the company’s first-quarter performance exceeded expectations in many areas. They reported earnings per share and revenue figures that were more than $2 billion above estimates. However, the stock initially dropped sharply, indicating a gap between good numbers and investor concerns. That negative reaction was short-lived as the session progressed, fueled by more favorable macroeconomic indicators, especially the lower-than-expected wholesale prices. While revenue increased, international sales showed less optimism with a 0.3% decline, hinting at weaker performance abroad despite strong growth in global eCommerce and a notable rise in international advertising revenue. In the US, consumer activity remained strong, with rising transactions and average spending reflecting broad demand resilience.

Future Outlook and Market Reactions

Looking ahead, management has noted potential risks from rising import costs linked to tariffs, causing them to withhold specific EPS and operating income guidance for the upcoming quarter. This caution suggests concerns about higher input costs or consumer sensitivity to rising prices. However, their revenue target of nearly $168 billion shows confidence in stability, even if profit margins face pressure. Their full-year outlook suggests moderate sales growth of 3% to 4%, with operating income expected to rise slightly faster, indicating some strength in margins—likely driven by advertising revenue or efficiencies from technology. Nevertheless, they need to overcome the $100 barrier firmly. Until they can do so, momentum could fade. The proximity of the 200- and 50-day SMAs introduces a risk of volatility, especially with automated trading strategies based on those averages. With wholesale prices declining and April retail sales barely positive, market participants should closely monitor forward guidance charts. Inflation data’s disinflationary signal may influence how investors respond to these trends, particularly if other data supports this narrative. This could lessen reactions to weak international sales figures, especially if margin expansion continues. For us, being included in the index adds more variables. The Dow’s slight midday rebound indicates how major components can affect market readings. Investors with leveraged equity exposures and those buying options on these stocks may need tighter hedging strategies in the coming days, especially ahead of tariff-related announcements. The revenue growth, especially in digital segments, likely boosts confidence in more speculative call positions. Still, we’re cautious that short-duration assets could react sharply if international weaknesses become more pronounced. Watch for changes in implied volatility around earnings announcements or trade-related comments from executives. Keep an eye on the put-call ratios at current levels; if we don’t see a strong move above $100, we might face further risks. We will monitor trading volume, correlation with broader market trends, and fluctuations in ATM option premiums. If these narrow without confirming moves in the stock, there is a risk of being too heavily positioned for a breakout that hasn’t yet occurred. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The Closing Figures Today’s closing numbers show that the Dow industrial average rose by 271.69 points, up 0.65%, reaching 42,322.75. This week, the Dow has gained 2.60%. The S&P index increased by 24.35 points (0.41%), closing at 5,916.92, with a weekly jump of 4.54%. The NASDAQ index, on the other hand, ended the day at 19,112.32, down 34.49 points (0.18%), but it is still up 6.60% for the week. In the first part of our report, we observed a last-minute change in tech stocks, largely due to Meta’s announcement. They decided to postpone launching their new AI model, called Llama 4 “Behemoth.” This decision raised questions about whether the new model would outperform the previous version. Investors were disappointed, and we could see the impact as the stock peaked early but later dropped. Trading was unstable, and the brief high did not hold. Meta’s decline took some energy away from the NASDAQ, which had previously shown a good gain during the day. By the end of the session, the NASDAQ was down. These kinds of shifts often indicate that buyers are losing confidence as the day wraps up. We’ve noticed similar patterns when there are concerns about major tech products. Sector Rotation In contrast, the Dow and S&P continued to rise. Gains in industrial and broader market sectors suggest a shift in investment—money is moving into sectors seen as more reliable. The S&P’s 4.54% rise this week indicates strong performance, likely due to better economic data and stable inflation. Even though the NASDAQ dipped today, its weekly gain of over 6% shows that the overall market sentiment remains optimistic, but it’s essential to keep an eye on it, as it relies heavily on a few tech stocks. We should watch how price reactions vary across indices in the coming days. The NASDAQ’s significant weekly gain followed by its recent decline suggests that trading momentum may slow down briefly. This presents both risks and chances, depending on timing. Reactions to significant market movements, especially from large tech companies, can be exaggerated, prompting us to approach trades cautiously and reduce our leverage when key events unfold. The widening spreads in implied volatility indicate a continued demand for short-term protection. The slight changes in call-put ratios in tech may not hold for long, especially if other major tech names either excel or fall short in their development timelines. There’s no need to complicate things. It’s clear that we are seeing a rotation in investments. The Dow’s positive day and strong week show that capital is still active in markets. Rather than abandonment, we see a rebalancing, especially among funds that manage sector allocations. This shift presents opportunities as there are limits on new investments, particularly in NASDAQ stocks that depend on innovation cycles. Holding long gamma positions is becoming tricky, especially if not short-dated, especially with the market movements we saw this afternoon. Trading in these conditions requires stricter delta hedging and smaller positions to avoid volatility-induced losses. For future trading, positions based on direction should be smaller and more responsive. Focus on expiration timelines that fall just after earnings or significant events, rather than during them. The forward interest rates trend indicates a defensive strategy might be effective, and tech stocks could see a slight downward adjustment if similar announcements come in the next two weeks. There are real opportunities in this market, especially when volatility rises without justification. The key is to adapt: shifting toward lower-volatility assets and conservative sectors sends a clear message. Although option traders may need to continually adjust their strategies or cut back on upside positions, being flexible appears to be a rewarding strategy given the sensitivity of these stocks to new developments. Lastly, we should track where open interest is increasing. Recent activity in S&P-linked contracts suggests that institutions are cautiously re-entering the market. This supports the case for short-term strategies that reflect caution while allowing for potential gains. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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GBP/JPY is under pressure as demand for the Japanese Yen rises. Investors are seeking safe havens due to increased risk from geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in US-China trade talks. Even with solid UK GDP growth at 0.7% for the quarter, the Pound struggles because the Bank of England remains cautious. High interest rates, global trade challenges, and tighter fiscal conditions weigh on the UK economy.

Bank of Japan Policy Shift

The Bank of Japan has hinted at a potential change in policy, encouraged by rising inflation and a strong Producer Price Index. If Japan’s Q1 GDP report shows better results than the expected 0.1% contraction, it will support this shift. Market sentiment is defensive, favoring the Yen in these uncertain times. In the short term, we are unlikely to see GBP/JPY change significantly unless there’s a shift in monetary policy or overall risk appetite. GBP/JPY continues to move downward as investors become more cautious. This trend isn’t just about a preference for the Yen; rather, it’s about a general move away from risk in the markets. Safe-haven buying increases during global instability, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions and fragile discussions between major economies. Despite the UK’s strong quarterly growth, reaching 0.7% which surpassed many expectations, it hasn’t lifted the Pound. The Bank of England’s cautious tone remains. Even with positive domestic data, officials are hesitant to signal a shift away from high interest rates. This uncertainty makes it hard for traders to justify long positions in the Pound, particularly against the Yen which benefits from the broader risk-averse trend. Going forward, it’s less about whether UK data stays strong and more about whether policymakers change their messaging. Without clear signals or significant policy shifts, the demand for the Pound isn’t likely to return strongly. The Governor and the Monetary Policy Committee are focused on inflation and wage growth, with concerns about persistent price pressures outweighing positive economic surprises.

Japan’s Economic Outlook

On Japan’s side, there are early signs of a potential policy change. The rising Producer Price Index indicates underlying inflation may continue. If Japan’s GDP report shows less weakness than the expected -0.1% contraction, it would strengthen expectations for future interest rate hikes, benefiting the Yen. Overall, the market remains cautious, and this sentiment influences trading strategies. Investors are favoring stability over growth as geopolitical risks escalate. In this environment, the Yen becomes more appealing. For derivative traders, the strategy should focus on stability rather than speculation. Defensive positions typically perform better during volatile times with uncertain policy direction. In terms of strategy, tracking breakouts from unexpected data will be key. If Japan’s economy performs better than expected, it will increase the chances of gradual tightening and strengthen the Yen, which may push GBP/JPY lower, especially if there’s no optimistic shift from the Bank of England. Additionally, managing short-term risk around major events, like central bank announcements or PMI readings, can provide practical entry points rather than blindly chasing trends. The most impactful movements are likely to arise from macroeconomic surprises rather than slow, steady trends. The momentum is clearly leaning toward caution. Until interest rates change or global risks lessen, we will maintain a defensive position. The current price action tells an important story. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Michael Barr from the Federal Reserve Board spoke at the New York Fed’s Small Business Credit Symposium. He noted that while the US economy looks stable, the trade strategies from the Trump administration create challenges. High tariffs can harm US businesses, especially small ones, carrying risks. If supply chains break down or businesses fail due to rising costs, it could result in inflation.

US Economy and Trade Policies

Right now, the US economy is holding steady with inflation close to 2%. However, trade policies bring some uncertainties. A sudden trade shock could hurt small businesses and lead to price increases if supply chains struggle or businesses go under. Barr’s remarks highlight concerns about the pressure certain policy changes could put on smaller companies. Higher costs from tariffs add to this pressure. It’s important because small businesses play a key role in keeping supply chains running and creating jobs. If many of them start facing these challenges, we could see wider disruptions. In terms of derivatives, pricing models might need changes if inflation expectations rise again. While consumer prices are closer to 2%, this progress could reverse if rising import prices create cost-push inflation. We’re not only looking at the price of goods but also logistics and storage costs, which are already tight, and this is reflected in derivatives contracts. Those involved in rate-sensitive strategies should take note: even without a rise in the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve might keep rates high for longer if they anticipate price pressures from trade issues. Barr’s cautious comments suggest the Fed is paying attention to how policies affect the market. Thus, strategies based on expected cuts might need adjustment if consensus on timing changes.

Market Adjustments and Risk Parameters

Additionally, spreads across different durations may shift if there’s a growing gap between short-term inflation stability and mid-term risks. This isn’t about panicking but making sensible adjustments. Recent stability in core inflation doesn’t mean that TIPS breakevens won’t widen if input costs rise. This is another factor our models indicate we should track closely. Moreover, high tariffs could reduce business investment. This may impact growth expectations reflected in equity index derivatives, especially in small-cap sectors. These companies often have less power in global markets and tighter profit margins affected by commodity price changes. If futures and options are too closely tied to forecasts that overlook these economic pressures, traders might be caught off guard. Given this situation, we’re making small adjustments to our risk parameters for positions related to global trade exposure. While this isn’t a dramatic shift yet, the cost of ignoring this risk has started to push up some implied volatilities on longer-dated contracts linked to industrials and transport. That shift may not be gradual, and once liquidity aligns with these assumptions, pricing changes can happen more suddenly than expected. Barr’s message is not a prediction, but a warning that the market has certainly noticed. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance and product adjustment this weekend.

Maintenance Details: MT4 / MT5 – 17th of May 2025 (Saturday) 00:00 – 03:00 (GMT+3)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. During the maintenance hours, Client portal and VT Markets App will be unavailable, including managing trades, Deposit/Withdrawal and all the other functions will be limited.
2. During the maintenance hours, the price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. If you don’t want to hold any open positions during the maintenance, it is suggested to close the position in advance.
4. Following the maintenance, it is important to note that the latest version will be 4475. If your MT5 version is below 4410, it is suggested that you download the latest version on official website by navigating to “Trading” → “Platforms”→ “MetaTrader 5”.

Check your MT5 software version with the following steps:

※ PC: Open the MT5 software > Help > About;

※ Android: Open the MT5 app > About;

※ iOS: Open the MT5 app > Settings > Settings.

Please refer to MT4/MT5 for the latest update on the completion and market opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].