Trump is scheduled to speak at 11 am ET, or shortly thereafter. The focus of his speech may involve discussions around a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Following previous announcements, Bitcoin experienced a quick rebound to $89,000.

Potential Timing Delays

Despite the scheduled time, past occurrences suggest Trump may not adhere strictly to the timetable.

Reports indicate that discussions regarding a capital gains exemption for cryptocurrencies will not proceed as anticipated.

This means traders need to be careful about expecting an immediate market response at exactly 11 am ET. If history is any guide, the timing could drift, so positioning too early might expose trades to unnecessary volatility. Sudden price movements may occur before or after remarks, depending on how leaks, expectations, or broader sentiment develop in the hours prior.

The sharp move to $89,000 following earlier statements shows how reactive markets can be to potential policy shifts. If today’s speech follows a similar pattern, there could be a rapid adjustment in pricing once details emerge. However, the market might have already priced in parts of the narrative, which could lead to either exaggerated swings or more tempered reactions.

Market Considerations

With reports now confirming that a capital gains exemption will not move forward as expected, some prior assumptions embedded in valuations may need to be reconsidered. Market participants who positioned for favourable tax changes may have to unwind positions, introducing an element of repositioning pressure.

The attention on a Bitcoin reserve policy could draw increased speculative activity, particularly if clear commitments are made. If the details are ambiguous or non-committal, traders should prepare for potential indecision in price action. Any comparisons to existing sovereign holdings of gold or other reserves might influence how markets interpret the likelihood of such a move materialising.

Timing trades around political events of this nature requires weighing both the substance of the announcement and the way markets react to incomplete or speculative information. If past events offer insight, positioning purely on expectations without adaptability carries heightened risk.

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The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average of 5732.91 for the first time since November 1, 2023. Although it closed at 5738.52, the volatility continues, with the current trading level at 5730.49, down 0.11%.

A daily close beneath this moving average could indicate a bearish trend. Key support zones are situated between 5669.67 and 5688.43, with the 50% retracement figure of 5633.27 being relevant should selling intensify.

Shifting Market Momentum

Conversely, maintaining above the 200-day moving average could suggest a shift in momentum, and surpassing 5754.58 would imply recovery for buyers. The Nasdaq index has fluctuated around its moving average of 18399.30 and is down 4.74% for the week, while the S&P is down 4.08%.

The fact that the S&P 500 momentarily dropped under its 200-day moving average but later closed slightly above it suggests uncertainty among market participants. With ongoing selling pressure, a daily close beneath this threshold would provide a bearish confirmation. If that happens, further declines towards the nearby support range between 5669.67 and 5688.43 could follow. Should momentum continue downward, traders would need to watch 5633.27 closely, as that represents the 50% retracement level, a technical point that often attracts buying or profit-taking activity.

If the opposite scenario occurs and support holds, staying above the 200-day moving average could give way to short-term stability. A close above 5754.58 would reinforce that view and indicate that buyers are regaining strength. In such a case, it would be wise to reassess positioning based on whether momentum builds or stalls at these levels.

Meanwhile, broader market weakness persists. The Nasdaq, which has also been fluctuating near its own 200-day moving average, has already taken a more pronounced hit this week. With a 4.74% decline over the last five trading sessions, it has fared worse than the S&P 500, which is down 4.08% over the same period. These drops reinforce the need to manage risk carefully and adapt to shifting dynamics.

Market Correlations And Risk

With both indices experiencing turbulence, one cannot ignore correlations between them, particularly in high-growth sectors and technology stocks. If losses in the Nasdaq accelerate, it could weigh further on broader indices. Given these conditions, reacting swiftly to confirmed breakouts or breakdowns will be critical. Premature positioning could lead to unnecessary risk exposure, making it all the more important to wait for definitive signs before adjusting strategies.

Price action in the coming sessions should clarify whether this is a mere shakeout or the start of extended weakness. If weakness persists, previous support levels will become focal points. If buyers regain control, overhead resistance will be just as telling.

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Fed Governor Bowman indicated that the labour market and economic activity will play a more prominent role in future Federal Reserve discussions. She noted that structural changes resulting from COVID-19 may have obscured the effects of Fed policy on the economy.

Despite her hawkish stance, Bowman appears to share concerns about growth, reflecting a wider sentiment among some officials. The evolving economic landscape may necessitate adaptations in policy considerations moving forward.

Shifting Policy Priorities

Bowman’s remarks highlight a shift in focus, implying that inflation alone may no longer dictate decisions to the same extent. If broader economic conditions, including hiring trends and business output, gain more weight, then assumptions about the Federal Reserve’s next steps will require reassessment. The suggestion that pandemic-driven disruptions still cloud the effects of tightening further complicates expectations. Policy adjustments may take longer to filter through, meaning past rate hikes might not have fully played out yet.

We have already seen how some policymakers, despite their preference for containing inflation, now acknowledge risks to growth. Bowman’s comments add to this view. If parts of the economy display weakness while borrowing costs remain elevated, internal discussions could shift. Those expecting swift moves in response to inflationary pressures might need to reconsider their outlook.

Over the coming weeks, the challenge lies not only in interpreting incoming data but also in recognising how it will be prioritised. If policymakers place greater weight on employment or spending figures, then the rationale behind interest rate decisions could differ from earlier expectations. Any adjustments in messaging will be telling.

Future Policy Considerations

Whether this means a delay in potential cuts or a more measured approach to future hikes, reaction strategies should align accordingly.

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Morgan Stanley has lowered its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, a reduction from the previous estimate of 1.9%. This change indicates an anticipated slowdown in US growth compared to other economies.

The adjustment comes as Germany considers stimulus measures that may enhance its economic situation. Consequently, the market is adjusting to this potential decline in US growth, especially in relation to the euro.

Us Economic Momentum

This downward revision reflects expectations that the momentum of the US economy will weaken next year. If growth slows to 1.5%, that would represent a notable deceleration from earlier projections, suggesting that domestic demand and business expansion may not be as strong as previously thought. With Germany weighing stimulus policies to support its economy, investors are already reassessing how economic output in both regions could shift relative to one another.

An economy losing pace tends to soften its currency, particularly when another major economy is considering measures that may strengthen its own position. With Germany working on proposals to spur activity, traders have reason to compare the growth trajectories of both markets. If the US slows while Europe receives an economic boost, the euro could gain ground against the dollar. This is something we must monitor carefully, as currency fluctuations will affect pricing in various markets.

Sentiment is shifting to reflect these possibilities. With growth expectations falling for the US, long-term bets on continued economic resilience may need adjusting. If investors begin pricing in slower expansion, this could influence bonds, equities, and foreign exchange markets alike. The response so far suggests that those active in derivatives are already positioning themselves accordingly.

Short-term moves in the market have already shown some reaction. If the euro strengthens on expectations of German stimulus, this could alter assumptions about future rate decisions from major central banks. Policy adjustments from either side could introduce further volatility, making it even more important to track economic updates in both regions.

Market Implications Ahead

Market participants have to consider what these forecasts imply going forward. Should the US continue losing economic momentum, reactions across different markets could accelerate. If traders begin shifting capital towards regions with stronger growth prospects, asset prices may adjust in turn. The coming weeks will likely bring further developments, particularly as discussions around European policy measures progress.

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The AUDUSD pair recently tested key moving averages and a swing area, aiming for an upward target between 0.6326 and 0.6336. Amid selling pressure, buyers are striving for control.

The pair reached a peak of 0.6363, approaching the 100-day moving average at approximately 0.6376. Following this, during the Asian-Pacific session, AUDUSD extended into a key support zone between 0.6287 and 0.6301, although selling persisted.

Key Support And Resistance Levels

In early U.S. trading, the pair fell to 0.6281, nearing the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 0.62798 and 0.6277, respectively. Currently, the price is rebounding, aiming to stabilise above 0.6301, with further upward potential if buyers succeed.

This movement shows the battle between buying pressure and broader market sentiment. A short-lived advance towards the 100-day moving average met resistance, reinforcing this level’s role as a barrier. The rejection suggests that traders lacked the confidence or momentum to sustain gains past 0.6363, leading to another test of support. With prices dipping back towards the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, support levels become critical again.

We have observed that in the Asian-Pacific session, as the pair attempted to hold ground above 0.6287, selling pressure remained—a sign that sellers were not finished asserting control. The 0.6281 level, tested in early U.S. trading, briefly pushed price action beneath both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. These markers often serve as short-term guidelines, and buyers stepped in just as the price scraped these thresholds. That reaction indicates interest at these levels, but whether momentum builds remains uncertain.

Market Sentiment And Future Outlook

Now, as the pair attempts to establish itself above 0.6301 again, attention shifts towards whether buyers can generate enough strength to break past earlier resistance levels. Maintaining stability above 0.6301 would be an initial step, reinforcing 0.6287–0.6301 as a base. If price action steadies and demand increases, another move towards 0.6326–0.6336 could follow. However, failure to hold could invite renewed selling, prompting another retest of lower support.

With these technical markers shaping near-term movements, reaction to key price zones will dictate positioning. The way price behaves around resistance and support should be watched closely, especially with recent rejections and rebounds highlighting short-term volatility. The ongoing push and pull suggest traders are assessing both directional conviction and the potential for extended price movement beyond familiar ranges.

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The US stock market is experiencing mixed performances across various sectors. Semiconductors are performing well, with AVGO rising by 5.11% and NVDA gaining 1.27%, indicating strong optimism around chip demand.

In contrast, the Technology sector is facing challenges, as MSFT declines by 1.32%. AAPL also shows a slight decrease of 0.16%, which may imply caution in the Consumer Electronics segment.

Consumer Cyclical Performance

Consumer Cyclical stocks like AMZN and TSLA are seeing smaller declines of 0.29% and 0.25%, while discount retailer COST is down by 3.17%, indicating pressure in consumer defensive stocks.

Energy stocks XOM and CVX are exceptions, gaining 0.98% and 1.27%, likely reflecting strengths tied to commodity trends. The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with robust semiconductor performance contrasting against weaker tech and consumer sectors.

Investors may benefit from increasing exposure to semiconductors and the Energy sector, while remaining cautious in Technology and Consumer segments. Monitoring relevant performance indicators and trends is advisable for navigating the current trading environment.

The past few trading sessions have been marked by an uneven distribution of strength across various industries. Semiconductor shares have shown notable gains, a reflection of renewed confidence in chip demand. With Broadcom climbing 5.11% and Nvidia adding another 1.27%, the data suggests ongoing expectations of growth in computing hardware and artificial intelligence applications.

At the same time, some Technology companies are struggling to maintain momentum. Microsoft has dropped 1.32%, and Apple has edged down by 0.16%. While Microsoft’s decline is more pronounced, Apple’s dip remains modest. Still, both raise questions about broader demand shifts in software services and consumer electronics.

Retail-focused stocks are not faring much better. Amazon and Tesla are both down, although by a relatively minor 0.29% and 0.25% respectively. However, more defensive names in the sector are under pressure, with Costco shedding 3.17%. That decline may indicate that even well-established retailers are facing near-term difficulties.

Energy Sector Trends

Commodity-linked stocks, however, are moving in the opposite direction. ExxonMobil has picked up 0.98%, while Chevron has increased by 1.27%. Given broader trends in energy markets, these gains are not entirely unexpected.

With these moves in mind, certain adjustments should be considered. Strength in semiconductors and Energy suggests areas where market confidence remains firm. On the other hand, weakness in technology and discretionary retail could be an early sign of shifting sentiment in those sectors. Making informed decisions will require close monitoring of stock performance and sector-specific trends over the next few weeks.

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Oil prices surged following remarks from Trump regarding potential heavy sanctions on Russia. He expressed intentions to implement extensive banking sanctions, tariffs, and other measures until a ceasefire and peace agreement are established between Russia and Ukraine.

Concerns about Russia’s military actions in Ukraine have prompted these considerations. The specific stance of Russia on ceasefire negotiations, including the involvement of European peacekeepers, remains unclear at this time.

Impact On Crude Oil Prices

The fear surrounding possible sanctions has closely impacted the market, causing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to rise sharply.

This sharp increase in WTI crude oil prices reflects an immediate reaction to the possibility of financial penalties and trade restrictions on Russia. Markets are highly sensitive to policy shifts from major economies, especially when they pertain to energy exports and global trade disruptions. Trump’s proposal to enforce banking sanctions and tariffs has added to existing anxieties about supply constraints, generating the conditions for this upward price movement.

When sanctions target financial institutions dealing with Russian exports, the ability to transact in the global market becomes more difficult. As a major oil producer, any disruption in Russia’s trade channels affects supply expectations. Traders anticipate a reduced availability of crude, leading to quick adjustments in pricing models. Even if the proposed measures are not yet implemented, markets react to potential constraints ahead of time.

Beyond crude prices, volatility extends to derivative markets. Uncertainty creates wider spreads, and rapid swings in oil prices affect margin requirements. For portfolio managers, this means recalibrating risk exposure to maintain liquidity. Those with leveraged positions must account for the possibility of unexpected price surges, particularly if further geopolitical developments push prices even higher.

Market Sensitivity To Sanctions

The unclear nature of Russia’s stance toward negotiations only amplifies market sensitivity. Without concrete agreements or diplomatic clarity, speculation drives a considerable portion of trading activity. Traders who focus on short-term price movements need to remain attentive to policy announcements. The mere possibility of European peacekeepers being involved could shift expectations swiftly, as it introduces another layer of unpredictability.

Price action in the coming weeks will depend on whether official measures are enacted or remain speculative. Sanctions that limit Russia’s ability to export crude oil could prolong the pressure on supply chains. Any developments suggesting a softening or escalation in diplomatic discussions should be monitored carefully.

Beyond geopolitics, banking sanctions have the potential to create further dislocations in markets. Restrictions on financial transactions can make settlement processes more difficult, affecting the movement of capital across commodities markets. These kinds of disruptions can create temporary disconnections between futures prices and physical markets, adding complexity to price discovery.

Expectations of future supply disruptions could also lead to abrupt swings in open interest for crude oil contracts. When traders anticipate scarcity, certain contract months may see heightened activity, altering forward curves. Whether these expectations hold depends on the extent of policy implementation in the near term.

Managing exposure in such an environment requires a methodical approach. Hedging strategies must account for shifting policy dynamics, geopolitical negotiations, and market responses to potential supply constraints. The threat of further price increases should prompt careful consideration of risk-adjusted positioning.

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The US jobs report revealed a mixed labour market for February 2025. Non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from an expected 4.0%.

The EURUSD fluctuated, hitting a high of 1.08832 before declining to 1.0853. Resistance appears near 1.08729, and to support sellers, the price must stay below this level.

Usdjpy Analysis

In the case of USDJPY, it is positioned below a swing area between 147.21 and 147.34. A drop below the 61.8% retracement level at 146.943 would strengthen seller control.

For GBPUSD, which fluctuated around 1.29236, staying below this level presents buyers with challenges. Potential downside targets include a swing area at 1.28306 and the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.28156.

Lastly, the USDCHF tested the 200-day moving average at 0.88186 before falling below it. Maintaining positions under this level remains vital for sellers, while the 50% retracement level at 0.87868 serves as another critical reference point.

February’s US jobs report painted a mixed picture of the labour market. Job creation fell short of expectations, with non-farm payrolls adding just 151,000 positions instead of the anticipated 160,000. At the same time, unemployment edged up to 4.1%, slightly above the projected 4.0%. These figures suggest some softening in hiring, though not a dramatic shift.

The impact on currency markets followed accordingly. The euro-dollar pair initially climbed to 1.08832 but later reversed course and settled lower at 1.0853. Resistance remains firm near 1.08729, and selling pressure is likely to persist as long as the pair stays beneath this threshold. Holding above it would signal a different momentum, but that has yet to be seen.

In dollar-yen trading, the pair remains under a key range stretching from 147.21 to 147.34. Further weakness could materialise if it slips below 146.943, the 61.8% retracement mark, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Staying above this level keeps traders cautious, but until there’s a push above the noted range, downside risks remain.

For sterling-dollar, activity centred around 1.29236, a level that has posed difficulties for buyers. The inability to move higher increases the likelihood of a slide towards a swing region near 1.28306, with the 100-hour moving average at 1.28156 offering another reference point. That zone will be closely watched, as losing it would invite additional selling.

Meanwhile, dollar-Swiss franc tested the 200-day moving average at 0.88186 before dipping below. Holding beneath this level is key for sellers, while the 50% retracement marker at 0.87868 stands as another important checkpoint. A move back above the former technical level would complicate matters for those betting on further declines.

Market Outlook

The past week’s developments provide a roadmap for what lies ahead. The labour report failed to deliver a decisive shift in sentiment, leaving traders to focus on technical markers. With price movements nearing key levels across multiple pairs, a break in either direction could set the tone for the coming sessions.

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USD/JPY has reached daily lows after the release of the non-farm payrolls report. Initially, the US dollar weakened, leading to a rise in stock futures, which have since reversed, with S&P 500 futures down by 0.2%.

The household survey indicated job losses, and the establishment survey reported a decline of 1.2 million full-time jobs. This economic data may be influencing the dollar, although market focus is anticipated to quickly transition to trading dynamics.

Usdjpy Reaction To Payroll Data

This movement in USD/JPY reflects how traders digested the employment data, which initially pressured the dollar. The softening in job numbers likely sparked concerns over growth, though attention is already shifting elsewhere. The payroll report delivered mixed signals—headline job additions met expectations, yet the broader employment picture was far from reassuring. A decline in full-time positions suggests underlying weakness, even if headline figures give the impression of stability.

Bond markets reacted in tandem, with yields dipping before paring their moves. The two-year Treasury yield briefly stepped lower before regaining some ground, indicating that traders are not yet fully committed to a new direction. With rate expectations still fluid, price action remains sensitive to external developments. The Federal Reserve will be watching closely, but no immediate policy shifts are expected based on this report alone. However, how officials interpret labour market softness could influence upcoming discussions.

Equity market reactions were just as telling. Stock futures initially jumped as rate-cut hopes resurfaced but soon erased those gains. This hesitation suggests that investors remain wary of broader economic risks. A weakening labour market, even if gradual, complicates the outlook and introduces more swings in risk sentiment. If recessionary fears start to gain traction, defensive positioning could return.

Market Volatility And Future Outlook

For traders, the coming weeks will require careful navigation of shifting expectations. Market participants should recognise that volatility around US data releases will remain elevated. Reactions to upcoming economic indicators—especially inflation readings—may be outsized, given the current sensitivity. Staying ahead of these fluctuations requires a sharp focus on both price action and sentiment swings.

As USD/JPY stabilises following its drop, it will be worth watching whether buyers step in or if selling momentum persists. Movements in Treasury yields will continue to offer valuable insights, as yield differentials remain a primary driver for this pair. Additionally, central bank rhetoric from both sides will shape positioning. With the Bank of Japan sticking to an ultra-loose monetary stance while the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, rate-driven moves are likely.

The payrolls data may have delivered the first push, but subsequent positioning will determine whether USD/JPY extends lower or finds support. Keeping a close watch on market developments will be essential in determining the next move.

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Potash is an essential fertilizer, predominantly utilised by US farmers, with Canada being the main supplier. Belarus also serves as a key source of potash on a global scale.

The tariff on potash has decreased from 25% to 10%. There appears to be a trend in the US to implement a 10% tariff on various imports entering the country.

Shift In Trade Policy

This reduction marks a shift in trade policy, easing the cost burden for buyers. A lower tariff means imports face fewer obstacles, which could alter buying patterns across the industry. Decisions from policymakers suggest an approach that favours a more uniform rate on selected goods, with potash being one of them.

With Canada as the largest supplier, changes in tariffs inevitably reshape price expectations. Buyers accustomed to higher duties may reassess their sourcing strategies, while suppliers must consider the competitive pressure from Belarus, which remains a prominent player despite existing restrictions. If this adjustment leads to increased imports, excess supply could weigh on prices, particularly if demand growth does not keep pace.

Markets react to shifts in policy, and this case is no exception. When duties fall, costs for importers decline, potentially leading to increased shipments. Whether this induces a meaningful price correction depends largely on the volume of product entering the country. If additional supply quickly reaches buyers, valuations could soften. However, any lag between imports and distribution could delay these effects.

Broader trends in tariffs suggest a pattern forming. By moving multiple categories of goods to a similar rate, authorities provide a clearer framework for future adjustments. Short-term movements will reflect these conditions, but longer-term implications rest on how producers and buyers respond.

Market Absorption And Price Trends

Price movements in the coming weeks will likely depend on how quickly the market absorbs the change. If contracts have already accounted for adjustments, immediate shifts may be limited. Should new imports arrive faster than anticipated, the response could be more pronounced. Watching the pace of shipments and inventory levels will provide insight into how this unfolds.

For those navigating exposure to these changes, assessing trade volumes and pricing behaviour remains essential. Supply-side reactions will be just as telling as demand trends. While some may view lower tariffs as an incentive to bring in additional volume, pricing pressure from competing sources must also be considered. Tracking these factors will indicate whether recent policy changes drive enduring shifts or merely short-term fluctuations.

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