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Gold reaches record high due to alignment of economic and geopolitical factors
**Gold Price Surge**
Gold prices have jumped, hitting a new high of $3,638, an increase of $52. This rise follows a steady climb since it broke through the April-September range.
Key reasons for this increase include attempts to influence Federal Reserve policies and falling interest rates. Trade tensions and uncertainty in global trade agreements are also affecting the market.
Additionally, disruptions in global military intervention have added to economic uncertainties. Higher fiscal spending is further complicating the situation.
Technical factors in the market also support this upward trend in gold prices. Together, these elements shape the current market conditions and impact economic stability.
With gold now at $3,638, volatility has spiked. The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) is trading near 29, well above its 12-month average of 17. This makes long call options very expensive. Traders should consider financing bullish positions by selling premium, like through call spreads.
**Geopolitical Risk Factors**
The underlying case for gold remains strong due to ongoing geopolitical risks, similar to what we saw during the turmoil in 2022. Recent US-China trade restrictions and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are boosting safe-haven demand. This situation supports maintaining a long position as protection against major conflicts.
Continued deficit spending is another significant factor. The U.S. national debt has now surpassed $37 trillion, a figure few expected a few years ago. This fiscal pressure increases fears of currency devaluation, making long-dated call options, or LEAPS, on gold miners (GDX) an effective way to keep upside exposure through 2026. Given the current situation, a major shift in spending policy seems very unlikely.
However, the rapid rise in prices warrants caution, as such steep climbs can lead to sharp corrections. The current high prices suggest that traders should be careful about chasing after the rally with new, unprotected long positions. The elevated volatility makes selling premium an appealing strategy for generating income while awaiting a clearer market direction.
Therefore, traders with existing long positions might consider selling out-of-the-money calls against their holdings to take advantage of the high premium. For those anticipating a pause or pullback, a short-dated bear call spread could be a safer way to bet that prices will stabilize below $3,800 in the coming weeks.
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The USDCHF pair declined, reaching new lows due to comments from the Swiss National Bank President and technical factors.
The USDCHF pair has been gradually falling since testing resistance earlier in the Asian session. It briefly climbed to 0.79948, but sellers took over, pushing it down.
Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel mentioned that negative interest rates would only be considered in rare situations because they negatively impact savers and pension funds. The policy rate remains at zero after recent cuts, with officials careful about further reductions as they monitor U.S. tariffs and domestic inflation. Schlegel pointed out the limited options for responding to new shocks and mentioned that markets expect rates to stay stable until 2026.
Technical Analysis of USDCHF
Technically, the pair’s decline continued into the U.S. session, dipping below a crucial range of 0.7938 to 0.79471, which keeps sellers in control. This sets a downside target at 0.7910–0.79209, with further drops possibly reaching the 2024 low of 0.78722, a level not seen since 2011. If the pair rises above 0.7947, it could halt sellers from pushing further down. A jump above the post-employment reaction low of 0.79555 would also lower sellers’ hopes for additional declines. The US dollar is notably weak against the Swiss franc, bringing the USD/CHF pair to its lowest since July 2025. The drop below the significant technical floor of 0.7947 indicates that sellers are in control for now, supported by a cautious stance from the Swiss National Bank.Market Trends and Strategies
The SNB is keeping its policy rate at zero, with little desire for more cuts through 2026. This stands in contrast to the Federal Reserve, which has lowered its benchmark rate twice in 2025 as U.S. inflation eased to 2.8%. The widening interest rate gap is boosting the franc’s appeal. Derivative traders can benefit from this situation by employing strategies that capitalize on further declines in USD/CHF. Buying put options with strike prices below the current 0.7930 level, such as 0.7900 or the more ambitious 0.7875, could effectively leverage the trend. These positions would become profitable if the pair continues to fall toward the 2024 lows. The next significant target is the 2024 low of 0.78722, a key psychological level marking a point not seen since major market changes in 2011. Unlike that time, when the SNB actively opposed a strong franc, today’s policy appears to accept this strength. Data from the Commitments of Traders report indicates that large speculators have increased their net long positions in the franc by over 15% since August 2025, suggesting institutional support for this outlook. However, we should keep a close eye on the 0.7947 to 0.7955 area as a critical risk point. If the pair moves above this level consistently, it could indicate that the recent drop was a false signal, potentially trapping sellers and suggesting a reduction in bearish momentum, necessitating a reassessment of short-term bearish options strategies. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.NVIDIA shares attract attention, leading to various strategies for trading dips and selling spikes with associated risks.
NVIDIA’s stock is currently priced at $169.76 after its earnings report and a recent drop. It has been moving between $167.35 and $170.96 lately. There are active put options at $165 and call options at $175.50. The $162–165 range shows liquidity, indicating a chance for rebounds. However, long-term moving averages suggest the stock might be overbought.
For long-term buyers, a “buy the dip” strategy is recommended when prices hit the mid-140s, with specific entry and stop points. For instance, buying at an average of $145.44 with a stop at $138.39 and aiming to take profits at $154.12 and $189.12. Short-term investors might look to enter around $163.68 and $162.58.
If you’re considering selling into strength, aim for entries between $174.80 and $175.80, with a stop at $177.20 and profit targets at $171.60 and $168.75. Options clusters help identify support and resistance, with volume nodes acting as price magnets.
These strategies provide a clear plan for trading NVIDIA, using defined entry and exit points based on current prices and technical analysis. Your final decision will depend on your risk tolerance and trading strategy.
As of today, September 8, 2025, NVIDIA is trading in a familiar range, appealing to tactical traders. Recent volatility after last week’s AI conference creates opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With the VIX rising from 13 to 18 over the past month, having defined risk strategies is essential for managing market fluctuations.
If you’re looking to buy on a pullback in the next few weeks, pay attention to the area between $162 and $163.70. This level is significant due to heavy put option open interest for the September expiration. A dip to this zone, possibly caused by market anxiety over upcoming inflation data, could provide a great entry point for a bounce.
Looking back, we saw NVDA behave similarly in late 2024, consolidating after a big climb and consistently finding support near its 50-day moving average before continuing its trend. This history suggests that buying on dips is often more rewarding than chasing quick gains. Derivative traders might want to consider selling cash-secured puts with a $160 strike to earn premium while waiting.
On the other hand, we’re watching the $174 to $176 area as a potential spot to sell into strength. This zone matches a significant concentration of call options, making it likely to serve as strong short-term resistance. NVDA’s forward P/E ratio has decreased from 45 earlier in the year to a more manageable 38, suggesting that rallies may have limited room until a major catalyst appears.
If the market goes through a deeper correction, the patient plan to buy in the mid-$140s looks very appealing. This would be a notable dip below primary support zones, where strong reversals often start. For traders with a long-term perspective, accumulating shares in this range could create a very profitable position as we move into 2026.
GBPUSD hits multi-week high, facing resistance and seeking key support at 1.35397
The GBP/USD pair has reached a new high of 1.35558, its highest point since August 18, exceeding Friday’s peak of 1.35541. Buyers tried to push the price up but have lost some momentum, leading to a pullback.
Right now, support is found at the 61.8% retracement level from the September 11 high, which is at 1.35397. This level is crucial for traders; staying above it leans towards a bullish outlook, while falling below could signal a failed breakout.
A Balancing Act
Looking more broadly, the difficulty in maintaining gains after surpassing Friday’s high shows a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. If the support at 1.35397 holds, we might see a move higher, targeting the range of 1.3576 to 1.35918. However, if the price drops below this support level with strong momentum, it could lead to a downturn. Important moving averages, including the 100-hour, 100-day, and 200-hour averages, are clustered between 1.3446 and 1.34735 and will become the next targets if the decline continues. The pound has reached a new multi-week high against the dollar at 1.35558, but it is struggling to hold onto these gains. This hesitation follows last Friday’s rally, which was spurred by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report. The key level to monitor now is 1.35397; if it holds, the bullish sentiment remains alive.Strategies For Traders
In light of this situation, traders who are optimistic about the pound’s potential for growth may consider buying call options with a strike price over 1.3576. This approach is backed by recent data showing UK inflation for August 2025 still high at 3.1%, putting pressure on the Bank of England to keep its firm stance. In contrast, the US is experiencing calmer wage growth, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to take a pause. However, if the price slips below 1.35397, it would indicate that the breakout has failed and confidence is diminishing. In this case, buying put options or setting up bear put spreads could be wise, targeting the support area around 1.3473. A similar sharp rejection occurred in spring 2024 when rate expectations diverged, resulting in a rapid 300-pip drop over two weeks. The current indecision in price action indicates a “tug-of-war,” which may raise short-term volatility. For traders who are unsure of the direction but anticipate a big move, a long straddle or strangle strategy could be suitable. This would allow them to benefit whether the pound breaks decisively higher or makes a sharp drop in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.US employment trends for August drop to 106.41, the lowest since 2021
The US Employment Trends Index for August dropped to 106.41, down from 107.55 the previous month. This information comes from The Conference Board.
Employment Trends Index Overview
Interest in employment trends has grown due to changes in non-farm payroll data. The index combines various data points that have already been released. While it is a lower-tier indicator, it is important in today’s job market. The decrease in the index may indicate changing conditions in employment. The August Employment Trends Index fell significantly to 106.41, compared to last month’s 107.55. This drop hints at a slowdown in the labor market. We view this seriously, as it suggests future job growth may weaken. This decline follows a period of volatility in job data. In July 2025, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 240,000 jobs. However, the latest report for August showed only 160,000 jobs added, falling short of predictions. The ongoing slowdown in the ETI indicates that the weaker August number likely reflects the broader trend.Federal Reserve Impact
We have seen this kind of trend before. During the 2007-2008 period, the Employment Trends Index started to decline months before headline payroll numbers officially indicated a recession. This historical pattern suggests we should prepare for slower economic activity now, rather than waiting for confirmation from delayed data. For traders, this raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more lenient approach. The Fed has kept rates steady at 5.50% for most of 2025, but futures markets now foresee a 60% chance of a rate cut in early 2026. It would be wise to consider options that benefit from falling interest rates, like long calls on 10-year Treasury note futures (ZN). A more accommodating Fed usually boosts equities, especially in growth sectors. We should explore call options on the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) to capitalize on potential gains from lower borrowing costs. If the market expects a “soft landing” from the Fed, it could lead to lower implied volatility, making selling VIX futures an appealing strategy. This situation also has critical implications for the US dollar. As expectations for rate cuts rise, the dollar’s yield advantage over other currencies is likely to diminish. We recommend buying put options on the US Dollar Index (DXY) to prepare for this potential weakness. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.After Ishiba’s resignation, USDJPY rose but struggled to maintain momentum and remained volatile.
The USDJPY rose sharply after Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba resigned over the weekend. The exchange rate climbed from Friday’s close of 147.382 to a high of 148.57 during the Asian session. This rise exceeded the 50% midpoint of the range since August 1. However, momentum quickly faded, and the rate dropped to a morning low of 147.457 in Europe, briefly falling below the 200-hour moving average of 147.727. Although the currency pair has stabilized, it remains volatile as traders evaluate the effects of Ishiba’s resignation and a weak U.S. jobs report released on Friday.
Last week, buyers were able to push USDJPY above its 200-day moving average at 148.735 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yet, momentum slowed when it faced resistance at the 61.8% retracement level at 149.110. This allowed sellers to regain control near the 200-day moving average and the 50% midpoint. For buyers to regain momentum, the pair needs to move above the swing area of 147.95–148.166 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 148.192. If this does not occur, the downward trend could continue. A drop below the current low of 147.45 may lead to levels between 146.54 and 146.80.
Market Forces In Play
The market is navigating two main influences. Last Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report showed only +95,000 non-farm payrolls, falling short of the +180,000 estimate, putting downward pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, Ishiba’s unexpected resignation created political uncertainty in Japan, which initially weakened the yen. This instability in Japan makes it less likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as previously expected later this year. As a result, market expectations for a rate hike have shifted from the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026. This divergence in policy is contributing to the fluctuations in the USDJPY pair. From a technical perspective, sellers currently have the advantage. They successfully defended the resistance at the 149.11 level last week and again at the 200-day moving average near 148.73. Today’s spike did not sustain above 148.55, reinforcing the bearish outlook.Option Strategies
The mix of conflicting fundamental forces and clear technical resistance is driving up volatility. In just a few trading sessions, one-month implied volatility on USD/JPY options has surged from a steady 8% to over 11%. This environment makes option strategies more appealing for managing the expected price fluctuations. Given the bearish technical signals, it may be wise to buy put options to take advantage of a potential decline. A drop below the day’s low of 147.45 would trigger this strategy, aiming for the swing area between 146.54 and 146.80 in the coming weeks. Using put spreads can lower the entry cost while specifying risk in this uncertain market. For those wishing to capitalize on the increased volatility without a strong directional bias, a long straddle could be effective. Any significant movement sparked by new political developments from Japan or more weak data from the U.S. would benefit this position. A sustained movement back above 148.20 would lead us to reassess a bullish approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EURUSD shows modest recovery after recent trading fluctuations and responds to support levels.
The EURUSD saw a slight rise compared to last Friday’s closing price. The pair climbed initially but then lost some gains, dropping into an important support zone between 1.16920 and 1.17028 before bouncing back. In early trading today, the low held at this support level, leading to an upward movement.
During the European morning session, the pair approached a significant resistance area, defined by swing highs from August, between 1.1730 and 1.17419. Sellers stepped in at the upper part of this zone, stopping the rise at a session high of 1.17421. The current trading position is around 1.17336 within this zone.
Potential Breakout Scenario
If the price breaks above 1.17419, it could retest Friday’s high at 1.17587. Traders could aim for higher targets, like July’s peak at 1.1769, 1.17874, and the yearly high of 1.18289 from July 1. If sellers manage to defend the July highs, attention may shift back to the support area between 1.1692 and 1.17028. A drop below this zone could weaken the short-term outlook and bring focus to the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.16698. Falling below this level might signal a deeper correction and add downward pressure. As of today, September 8, 2025, the EURUSD is testing an essential pivot point, currently holding above the key support level of 1.1692. This price movement follows a mixed U.S. jobs report last week, which revealed a solid increase of 195,000 jobs but a disappointing 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings. This situation has created uncertainty in the market, balancing a strong labor market against low inflation pressures. For traders expecting a bullish breakout above 1.17419, buying short-dated call options with strike prices around 1.1750 or 1.1775 could be a smart move. This outlook is bolstered by the latest Eurostat data showing Eurozone inflation for August at 2.8%, slightly above expectations, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to take a hawkish stance. The ultimate target for this scenario is the yearly high near 1.18289 from July 2025.Neutral Strategy Consideration
On the other hand, if the resistance around 1.1742 remains strong, we might see a drop toward the 1.1700 level. In this case, buying put options with a strike price just below 1.1700 would take advantage of a break of the 1.1692 support zone, predicting a drop toward the moving averages clustered around 1.1670. Given the well-defined range of about 1.1690 to 1.1760, a neutral options strategy could also be beneficial in the upcoming weeks. For example, selling an iron condor with short strikes outside this expected range could generate profit from time decay. This strategy assumes the pair will remain caught between the strong signals of a resilient U.S. economy and possibly rising inflation in Europe. It’s important to keep a close eye on implied volatility, which has been increasing ahead of next week’s ECB policy meeting. Remember the significant market reactions to central bank surprises in 2023 and 2024, highlighting the need for using defined-risk option spreads. These events can cause considerable price changes, making risk management crucial for any position. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Xi emphasizes cooperation and openness, addressing trade tensions that impact global economic stability and China’s exports.
China’s President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of openness and cooperation in the global economy. He highlighted the need to uphold the international economic and trade order.
The president noted that some countries are hurting the global economy due to trade conflicts. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China have led to a decline in Chinese exports, now at their lowest in six months.
Impact Of Tariffs
Shipments from China to the U.S. have fallen by over 30%, showing the effects of tariffs enacted by both countries. The Trump administration has extended its tariff pause with Beijing until November 10, keeping average tariffs around 30% while avoiding new increases for now. While the conversation around openness continues, the actual data tells a different tale. China’s latest manufacturing PMI for August 2025 dropped to 49.8, marking two consecutive months of decline and confirming the slowdown. This economic weakness highlights the ongoing trade dispute as a major concern. The crucial date is the tariff truce deadline on November 10, just over two months away. Reflecting on past patterns from 2018-2020, we can anticipate increased market volatility and uncertainty in the weeks leading up to such deadlines. This presents a clear opportunity to adjust for potential risk changes. Given this predictable scenario, we think implied volatility is too low. For example, options on the FXI China Large-Cap ETF indicate a calm that does not match the impending deadline. Buying long-term puts or put spreads on indices like the Hang Seng or ETFs tied to Chinese stocks seems a cost-effective way to hedge or bet on renewed tensions.Global Ripple Effects
Currency markets are showing caution and deserve our attention. The offshore yuan (USD/CNH) has been nearing the 7.35 mark, a significant level that has caught the eye of central banks before. Using options to prepare for a break above this level could be a direct response to potential trade talks going south before the November deadline. This isn’t just a trade issue for China; renewed tariffs would impact the global market. In previous escalations, we witnessed negative reactions in the U.S. technology and industrial sectors. Thus, purchasing protective puts on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 with expiration dates in late November could provide effective protection against a breakdown in negotiations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.The US dollar weakens early in the trading week due to poor employment data and political changes
The USD began the US trading week lower due to the August 2025 jobs report. This report showed a slowdown in hiring, with only 22,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. Job losses occurred in manufacturing, construction, and government sectors, while healthcare, retail, and leisure saw some gains. The average for nonfarm payrolls over the last three months is around 29,000, a considerable drop from the 12-month average of approximately 122,000.
In response, Treasury yields fell, and equities and gold rose as the USD weakened. Futures indicate almost certain expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 17, influenced by upcoming CPI and PPI data. When comparing the USD to major currencies, the results were mixed: JPY +0.24%, EUR -0.11%, GBP -0.20%, CHF -0.34%, CAD -0.22%, AUD -0.56%, NZD -0.75%. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned after electoral losses, leading to political and market changes.
Economic Indicators and Market Performance
Key data releases to watch include the PPI and CPI, while the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged. US stock indices started the week on an upswing, with the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ increasing. Yields in the US debt market dropped, and commodities like crude oil, gold, and silver rose. Bitcoin also gained, increasing by $852 to close at $110,669 on Friday. The weak jobs report makes a Fed rate cut on September 17 almost certain. A similar significant cooling in the labor market happened in late 2019, leading the Federal Reserve to start a cycle of easing that traders expect now. It’s wise to prepare for lower interest rates by using options that will benefit from expected declining yields in the coming weeks. This shift makes the US dollar less appealing fundamentally, and this trend is already seen in its broad decline. Using the CME FedWatch Tool, over a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point cut is currently priced in, which will likely continue to affect the dollar. Options to bet against it, such as buying calls on AUD/USD or EUR/USD, seem attractive.Inflation and Fed Policy
However, we should pay attention to this week’s CPI inflation report, which poses a risk. The persistence of inflation in 2023 kept central banks aggressive, and if the report shows a surprising increase of 0.4% or more, it could complicate the Fed’s decisions. A volatility strategy, such as an options straddle on the S&P 500, might be a smart move to trade around the data release. Gold has hit a new record high, driven by lower bond yields and expectations of cheaper money. This surge is similar to the rally we saw in 2024, which was also fueled by prospects of Fed easing and geopolitical tensions. We can take advantage of this by using call options on gold futures to secure profits while managing the risk of a price reversal. In Japan, the Prime Minister’s resignation adds uncertainty that could impact the yen. While the yen is stronger today, such political instability often leads to currency weakness in the medium term as investors await clear policies. A wise move would be to consider longer-dated call options on the USD/JPY pair, betting against the recent strength of the yen. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Gold prices rise above $3,600 as Japanese yen recovers earlier losses during trading
Gold prices have risen above $3,600, driven by expectations of a more lenient Federal Reserve and weaker US economic data. The price has increased by 0.8%, reaching $3,615.72.
The US dollar is weaker against most major currencies except for the yen, which has dropped due to Ishiba resigning as Japan’s prime minister. USD/JPY fluctuated between 148.00 and 147.46 before rising back to 147.70.
