Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is trading around $60.70 as of Wednesday’s Asian session. The price drop follows Venezuela’s return to oil exports and a reported rise in US crude inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Venezuela’s Oil Production Resumes

According to Reuters, Venezuela is boosting oil production after previously cutting it due to a US embargo. Recently, two supertankers, each carrying about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil, set sail. This may be part of a 50-million-barrel supply deal between Caracas and Washington to restart exports. On the US side, crude stockpiles have increased significantly. The API’s weekly report indicate an uptick of 5.27 million barrels for the week ending January 9, contrasting with a drop of 2.8 million barrels the week prior. Market expectations had anticipated a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. Adding to WTI price pressures, tensions are rising in Iran. President Trump has pulled out of meetings with Iranian officials and is supporting protesters, as reported clashes have resulted in casualties. With WTI crude oil priced at around $60.70, we see significant downward pressure. The unexpected increase of 5.27 million barrels in US stockpiles is a major bearish signal, especially since the market expected a decline. Traders are now looking forward to the official EIA report later today, which is likely to confirm the trend of rising inventories.

Implications for Traders

The current supply surplus is compounded by new barrels entering the market from two sources. In the US, crude production is at record highs, with the latest EIA forecasts suggesting output may average over 13.5 million barrels per day this quarter. Additionally, the restart of Venezuelan exports adds an unexpected variable that the market hadn’t accounted for until this week. On the demand front, concerns about the global economy’s strength could impact oil consumption. December 2025’s manufacturing PMI data from China showed a slight contraction, indicating weaker demand from the world’s largest oil importer. This poor demand outlook, combined with climbing supply, points to lower prices in the near future. For traders in derivatives, this environment appears to favor bearish positions. There has been a noticeable rise in open interest for put options with strike prices at $58 and $55 for the February and March contracts. Strategies such as buying puts or creating bear put spreads could help capitalize on potential price drops toward the mid-$50s. Nevertheless, we must keep an eye on the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran. Any escalation or direct US intervention could lead to a sudden supply shock, causing prices to surge and hurting short positions. Holding some inexpensive, out-of-the-money call options could be a cost-effective way to hedge against this unpredictable risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China’s trade balance in December rose to CNY 808.80 billion, up from CNY 792.57 billion. Exports increased by 5.2% year-on-year in December, while imports grew by 4.4% during the same time frame. In US Dollars, China’s trade surplus for December was $114.10 billion. This exceeded expectations of $113.60 billion and the previous figure of $111.68 billion. Exports were up by 6.6%, and imports increased by 5.7%, surpassing prior predictions.

The Impact On Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose by 0.16% in response to the Chinese trade data, with notable gains against the Swiss Franc. China’s customs department will provide its official trade data at 03:00 GMT, with a previous forecast of a trade balance of $113.60 billion. Before the data release, AUD/USD shows a positive trend. Potential resistance levels are at 0.6722, 0.6742, and 0.6766, while support is found at 0.6663, 0.6614, and 0.6587 if the price declines. The value of the Australian Dollar is affected by several factors, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate policies, iron ore prices, and China’s economic health. The RBA sets interest rates that influence inflation and credit conditions, directly affecting the AUD’s value. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, its economic performance and iron ore prices also shape demand for the AUD. A positive trade balance boosts the AUD as well. In January 2025, strong Chinese trade figures gave the Australian dollar a notable lift, with both exports and imports surpassing expectations. This demonstrated the clear connection between China’s economy and the AUD, a relationship that still guides our strategy on January 14, 2026.

Challenges In The Current Economic Landscape

Today’s environment is more complicated, requiring caution. Recent data reveals that China’s official manufacturing PMI for December 2025 stood at only 50.1, suggesting a weak recovery compared to last year. This indicates less potential for positive surprises in trade data, which were previously a strong catalyst for growth. Moreover, iron ore prices—a vital export for Australia—have fallen in early 2026 to around $125 per tonne, due to concerns over demand for Chinese steel. This is a shift from the stronger prices seen in late 2025, acting as a challenge for the AUD. The Reserve Bank of Australia has also paused its interest rate hikes, leaving the currency without clear domestic support. In this uncertain backdrop, strategies that capitalize on potential volatility may be more effective than those focused on a specific direction. Strategies such as buying straddles or strangles on AUD/USD ahead of upcoming Chinese GDP or trade data could be beneficial. This approach enables profit from significant price moves in either direction, which is likely if the data diverges from muted expectations. For those already holding long positions in AUD, purchasing out-of-the-money put options provides a cost-effective hedge. This strategy protects against a scenario where disappointing Chinese data may cause the AUD to drop. Such a defensive stance reflects the mixed signals from China’s economy, a stark contrast to the clearer picture from last year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The USD/CAD pair remains strong around 1.3900, thanks to a stronger US Dollar and steady Federal Reserve policies. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in December 2025, matching expectations, with a yearly increase of 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, grew by 0.2%, falling short of predictions and keeping annual core inflation at a four-year low of 2.6%. Despite past shutdown distortions, indicators show inflation is easing. Strong Nonfarm Payrolls, a lower Unemployment Rate, and stable ADP Employment Changes highlight a strong US job market. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar may benefit from rising Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate set at about $60.70 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions related to Iran.

The Impact of Oil Prices

The value of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is influenced by the Bank of Canada’s interest rates, Oil prices, economic health, inflation, and Trade Balance. Higher Oil prices typically support the CAD due to increased demand, while lower prices may diminish its value. Additionally, inflation and economic data impact the CAD by affecting foreign investments and interest rates, with stronger data generally favoring the currency. The USD/CAD pair is holding steady near the 1.3900 level, driven by trends noticed in late 2025. At that time, the market expected the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates. This view was supported by a strong US labor market and easing inflation that was not drastically falling. In December 2025, the annual US inflation rate was 2.7% with a core rate of 2.6%. Both figures were lower than those seen in much of 2023, where rates often exceeded 3%. This disinflation, along with strong job reports from late 2025, created a balanced situation for the US dollar. The economy was robust enough to avoid rate cuts, yet inflation was tame enough to prevent rate hikes.

Geopolitical Tensions and Currency Dynamics

The Canadian dollar also benefits from rising oil prices, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in Iran in 2025, which pushed West Texas Intermediate crude prices to around $60.70 per barrel. Past supply concerns, such as shipping attacks in the Red Sea during late 2023, also stabilized oil prices and strengthened the loonie. This scenario creates a rivalry for the currency pair, as a strong US economic outlook contrasts with rising commodity prices that favor Canada. The Federal Reserve’s steady approach supports the US dollar, while energy market risks bolster the Canadian dollar. This fundamental tension indicates potential volatility for the pair. Traders should consider strategies that can thrive on sharp price movements in either direction, as the pair might break out depending on which factor becomes dominant. Options strategies such as straddles or strangles might be useful before key central bank meetings or significant energy news. These strategies can capitalize on increased volatility without needing to predict a specific direction. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely monitor communications from the Bank of Canada for any changes that differ from the Federal Reserve’s stance. The BoC maintained its policy rate at 5% into early 2024, suggesting it is not ready to declare victory over inflation. Any indication that Canadian policymakers are becoming more dovish than their American counterparts could push USD/CAD higher. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China’s trade balance for December reached $114.1 billion, surpassing the expected $113.6 billion. This comes during a time when various market movements and economic indicators are being closely observed worldwide. Gold prices increased to just over $4,620 per troy ounce, approaching the record high of $4,634.64. This rise is driven by higher demand for safe-haven assets due to anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe saw increases between 7% and 14%, indicating a possible upward trend.

Currency Market Movements

In the currency markets, the GBP/USD pair fell to about 1.3425, influenced by renewed demand for the US Dollar ahead of important US economic data. Similarly, the USD/JPY and USD/CHF pairs were affected by the yen’s performance and inflation data. Recommendations for currency trading brokers for pairings like EUR/USD and others in 2026 have emerged. These insights highlight features such as low spreads, leverage, and regional suitability, reflecting the varied preferences of currency traders. Articles on the FXStreet platform remind readers about the risks and uncertainties in financial markets. They encourage individuals to do thorough research before making investment decisions, emphasizing the risks involved in open markets. Political pressure on the Federal Reserve, including grand jury subpoenas, has created a level of uncertainty not seen in years. This situation signals the likelihood of higher market volatility, with VIX futures anticipating significant price swings. Traders should consider strategies that benefit from this, such as long straddles on major equity indices.

Strategies for Gold and US Dollar

With gold prices hitting new highs over $4,600, it is currently the main safe-haven asset in the market. The rally is supported by political uncertainty and increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts, generating strong momentum. This suggests that buying call options on gold futures or setting up bull call spreads could be effective strategies for capturing potential upside. The US Dollar is gaining strength against other major currencies, with the USD/JPY pair nearing the significant psychological level of 160.00. This movement is primarily driven by interest rate differences, a trend that also influenced the market in 2024. The upcoming US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be crucial; any surprises could either boost this trend or cause a sharp reversal. Although safe-haven assets are in demand, China’s trade balance showed a much stronger-than-expected $114.1 billion for December 2025. This robust export data, much higher than the figures seen throughout much of 2024, indicates that global demand is holding up better than expected. This could support commodity currencies and complicate a purely risk-off outlook. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China’s exports grew by 5.2% in December, down from 5.7%. This slowdown may impact global trade and economic activities. The foreign exchange markets are responding, particularly with the Chinese Yuan (CNY) compared to the US Dollar (USD) and other major currencies. This change is affecting Chinese assets and the strength of the Yuan.

Monitoring Economic Indicators

It’s important to keep an eye on future economic indicators to fully understand the effects of this export data. We should look at trade balances and domestic demand in China for a complete picture. For regular updates and detailed market analysis, check sources like FXStreet. This information is crucial for anyone following currency markets and economic trends. The decline in China’s export growth to 5.2% in December 2025 signals a need for us to reassess our investments. This dip indicates weaker global demand for Chinese goods, which could put pressure on the Yuan. We are now exploring derivatives that might benefit from a weaker currency. Given this outlook, we see value in buying call options on the USD/CNH pair, anticipating a weaker offshore Yuan. The People’s Bank of China has slightly weakened the daily yuan reference rate over the past two weeks, suggesting it may accept a softer currency. This approach offers a clear way to benefit from this potential currency shift.

Impact on Commodities and Equities

Weak exports are likely to affect China’s interest in industrial commodities, a trend we’ve seen during past slowdowns, like in 2015. Data from the London Metal Exchange shows that copper inventories have increased by 12% since early 2026, indicating excess supply. Therefore, shorting copper futures or buying puts on industrial metal ETFs could be a wise move in response to falling demand. Slowing exports may also hurt the earnings of major Chinese companies listed on the Hang Seng Index. Preliminary reports indicate that shipments to North America, a crucial market, fell by 2.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Thus, we are considering purchasing put options on China-focused ETFs to protect against or profit from a possible downturn in Chinese stocks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

In December, China’s imports rose by 5.7% compared to last year, which was much higher than the anticipated 0.9%. This growth signals a strong boost in import activities. Gold prices hit a new peak, trading at $4,620 per troy ounce, due to increased demand for safe assets. Market movements are being driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, following softer inflation reports in the U.S.

Meme Coins Show Gains

Meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe experienced gains between 7% and 14%. While DOGE and SHIB stabilized after their recovery, PEPE continued its upward trend. The Federal Reserve faces grand jury subpoenas related to pressure from the Department of Justice, signaling heightened scrutiny. This situation creates uncertainty about the central bank’s future policies. FXStreet provides important information for investors but emphasizes the risks associated with open markets. The platform encourages investors to conduct thorough personal research before making any financial choices and does not give personalized investment advice. The surprising increase in Chinese imports for December 2025 is a promising signal for the global economy. The 5.7% rise, far exceeding the 0.9% forecast, reflects strong domestic demand we haven’t seen in a while. We should consider call options on commodities like copper and oil, along with currency options linked to commodities such as the Australian dollar.

Gold and Political Pressures

This renewed demand from China comes alongside a rush for safety, pushing gold prices above $4,600. Recent political pressures on the Federal Reserve, as shown by subpoenas, create uncertainty that typical monetary policy models can’t predict. In this environment, owning volatility and safe assets makes sense. With this context, we suggest buying call spreads on gold futures (/GC) to participate in potential gains with defined risk. The main influences are not only geopolitical anxieties but also increasing market expectations for Fed rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates over an 85% chance for a cut by March, following the fall in U.S. core inflation below 3% in Q4 2025. In currency markets, the USD/JPY pair nearing 160.00 is close to intervention levels. We should consider buying strangles to benefit from a rapid change in either direction, whether it spikes through this level or reverses due to intervention by the Bank of Japan. We remember the strong yen rally in late 2024 when the Ministry of Finance intervened under similar conditions. Meanwhile, the Pound remains weak against the Dollar as we approach key U.S. data releases later this week. The UK’s nearly flat GDP growth in late 2025 continues to pressure the currency. We see a chance to buy puts on the GBP/USD pair (/6B) as a short-term strategy. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China’s trade balance for December increased from CNY 792.57 billion to CNY 808.8 billion. This change indicates a positive trend in China’s trade activities for the month. In other news, the USD/CHF rose slightly above 0.8000 following US CPI inflation data that met expectations. Gold prices also went up in various regions, including Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, and the United Arab Emirates, as reported by FXStreet.

Foreign Exchange Market Activity

In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD was around 1.1650, showing signs of weakening based on the Relative Strength Index. The GBP/USD decreased to roughly 1.3425 due to higher demand for the US Dollar. Gold prices continued to rise, approaching previous highs. This increase is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing demand amid lower US inflation. The cryptocurrency market also saw movements, with meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe increasing by 7% to 14%. Additionally, Ripple (XRP) stayed steady above $2.00, though it faced challenges in the broader recovery. Even with ongoing inflows into ETFs, Ripple did not show strong upward momentum.

Trade Surplus and Impact on Markets

China’s trade surplus expanded in December, outpacing expectations and highlighting strong export performance. This follows the economic recovery that began in 2025 after the post-pandemic reopening. The robust export activity suggests potential upward pressure on Yuan derivatives like CNH futures. However, the outlook for the US Dollar is less clear due to new Department of Justice scrutiny of the Federal Reserve. This uncertainty regarding the Fed’s independence is pushing traders toward safe options like gold, which is currently priced above $4,600 an ounce. Market anxiety is reflected in the VIX, which has recently risen above 25, making volatility-based options strategies more appealing. In this environment, both the Euro and the British Pound are weakening against the Dollar. The declining momentum in EUR/USD, with the RSI below 50, indicates that this pair may struggle to find support. This trend, seen since the last quarter of 2025, could prompt traders to buy put options on EUR/USD and GBP/USD to safeguard against further declines. Meanwhile, the surge in high-risk meme coins indicates a strong speculative interest in the market. This creates a mixed scenario, with some investors seeking safety while others chase high returns. Such divergence suggests that the broader market lacks a clear direction, posing challenges for straightforward trend-following strategies. Given these mixed signals, traders should consider strategies to manage this uncertainty. The strong data from China contrasted with a volatile US outlook could make a pairs trade, such as going long on CNH and short on EUR, an appealing option using currency futures. With implied volatility now high, selling premium through defined-risk options on major indices may also be a viable strategy for those expecting the market to stay within a certain range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

China’s exports rose by 6.6% in December compared to last year, beating the expected 3% growth. This shows strong demand for Chinese products. In other news, the USD/CHF currency pair gained slightly, while gold prices increased in several countries, according to FXStreet data. The EUR/USD remained stable around 1.1650 without significant changes.

Currency And Commodity Movements

The GBP/USD dropped below 1.3450 due to rising demand for the US Dollar. Gold prices climbed to $4,620.00 as speculation about changes in Federal Reserve interest rates grew. Altcoins like Dash, Story, and Optimism saw gains but may face a downturn. Ripple (XRP) held steady above $2.00, and spot Exchange Traded Funds drew in $1.23 billion. Recent developments are increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly due to legal actions from the Department of Justice. Despite this, interest in cryptocurrencies and precious metals remains strong among investors. The surprising 6.6% growth in Chinese exports shows that global manufacturing is busier than expected. This, along with the December 2025 Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which indicated expansion at 51.5, suggests steady demand for industrial commodities. We might want to consider call options on copper and Australian dollar futures, as Australia relies heavily on Chinese demand.

Gold And Market Trends

Gold is showing remarkable strength as it approaches its all-time highs. This is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a safe-haven investment trend. A recent subpoena from the Department of Justice against the Fed adds unexpected political uncertainty, which further supports gold’s appeal. Bullish strategies, like buying call spreads on gold futures (GC), could benefit from upward momentum toward the $4,700 level. Reflecting on the past two years helps us appreciate the current surge in precious metals. After remaining below $2,500 an ounce for much of 2024, gold’s sharp rally in 2025 broke important resistance levels. This breakout suggests solid support from both monetary policy changes and geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar is gaining some strength against currencies like the British Pound, but this could be misleading due to mounting pressure on the Fed. The political climate may push the central bank to take a more dovish approach, which would be challenging for the dollar. We should consider options to capitalize on expected volatility in major pairs like EUR/USD, particularly since it’s hovering around 1.1650. Bitcoin has surpassed $95,000, signaling a strong renewed interest in the market not seen since the 2025 bull run. Institutional investments into spot ETFs approved in early 2024 have significantly altered the market landscape and provided consistent support. We can leverage this momentum by exploring longer-term call options on Bitcoin and Ethereum futures to benefit from a potential continuation of this rally. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

AUD/USD is stabilizing under 0.6700, currently around 0.6680 in the Asian session after slight losses earlier. The US Dollar is strengthening despite US inflation data being lower than expected, hinting at possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In December, the US Core Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2%, falling short of market forecasts, while annual core inflation remained steady at 2.6%. This indicates easing inflation, but strong job figures suggest a solid labor market.

Support for the Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar may receive support from expected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In November 2025, dwelling approvals in Australia rose by 15.2%, showing strong housing demand and possibly influencing inflation concerns for the RBA. Upcoming trade balance data from China is expected, with a projected surplus of $113.60 billion for December. Year-over-year, exports are predicted to increase by 3.0% and imports by 0.9%. China’s economic situation, a significant trading partner for Australia, directly affects the Australian Dollar, with any changes impacting AUD exchange rates. The value of AUD is influenced by RBA interest rates and iron ore prices, Australia’s top export. Export demand plays a crucial role, making the trade balance a key focus. As AUD/USD hesitates below the important 0.6700 level, there’s clear tension that derivative traders can take advantage of. The US Dollar’s unexpected strength, despite December 2025’s inflation data indicating future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creates uncertainty that is favorable for options strategies aiming for a specific move or a surge in volatility.

Effects of Inflation and Rate Cuts

The lower US core inflation figure of 2.6% for 2025 is a big drop from the 3.9% seen at the start of 2024, strongly indicating that the Fed’s next action will likely be a rate cut. Market pricing is now aggressively factoring in several rate cuts for the year, similar to late 2023. Traders may consider buying AUD/USD call options to bet on US Dollar weakness once the market fully processes this dovish inflation news. On the other hand, the Australian Dollar has its own strengths, especially with the booming housing market reflected in the 15.2% rise in dwelling approvals from November 2025. This domestic inflationary pressure could push the RBA to adopt a more aggressive stance than currently expected. The potential policy split, with the RBA increasing rates and the Fed decreasing them, forms a solid basis for a long AUD/USD position. However, the immediate focus is on China’s trade data, a vital factor for the Australian economy and its currency. Iron ore prices, which were mainly above $120 a ton throughout 2024, are highly influenced by Chinese industrial demand reported in this data. A positive surprise could boost the AUD, making short-dated call options an appealing way to trade this event. Given these opposing yet powerful forces, we recommend traders use derivatives to manage risk and speculate on outcomes. Buying call spreads on AUD/USD can be a cost-effective strategy to bet on the currency rising due to the anticipated policy divergence in the coming weeks. For those more cautious about the China data, purchasing puts can provide a cheap hedge against a downside surprise that temporarily strengthens the US Dollar. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now