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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their winning streaks, marking their longest runs in two years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a minor decline. Earnings reports from companies like Rivian, Robinhood, and Warner Bros. Discovery influenced stock movements, with Roblox reporting strong results. In the currency market, the US dollar stabilized after earlier gains, with a dovish outlook on the Federal Reserve. The euro rebounded, while the USD/JPY pair faced resistance and potential intervention threats. Sterling remained flat, and the Australian and Canadian dollars, as well as the offshore yuan, fell due to various concerns. The week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with jobless claims and sentiment data as key points of interest.
Stock Market Updates
The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to eight consecutive days, marking its longest run in two years. The index gained 0.1%, closing at 4,382.78, which matched an eight-day winning streak from November 2021. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite also saw gains, rising by 0.08% to reach 13,650.41, making it the ninth positive day and the longest streak in two years. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.12% decline, losing 40.33 points and breaking its best win streak since July. Investors are keeping an eye on upcoming inflation and economic data to gauge the future trajectory of equity gains. While the economy is showing signs of slowing, it is not plummeting drastically.
In earnings news, Rivian’s stock slipped 2.4% despite posting better-than-expected results. Robinhood’s shares declined by 14.3% after significant drops in trading volumes. Warner Bros. Discovery faced a 19% decline, its worst day since March 2021, due to a wider-than-expected loss. In contrast, Roblox saw an 11.8% increase in its stock price after reporting strong results. The S&P has gained 4.5% in November, the Nasdaq has surged 6.2%, and the Dow has risen by 3.2% for the month. Earnings season is winding down, with the majority of companies in the S&P 500 surpassing earnings estimates, but only 62% have exceeded revenue expectations, reflecting the impact of slowing demand. The season continues with earnings reports from companies like Walt Disney, Affirm Holdings, and MGM Resorts.
On Wednesday, the overall market saw a slight gain of 0.10%. Information Technology and Real Estate sectors performed well, with gains of 0.64% and 0.58% respectively, while Industrials and Materials sectors also showed positive movements at 0.27% and 0.26%. However, the Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors experienced losses of -0.14% and -0.25%, and the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors saw larger declines at -0.42% and -0.73%. The Energy sector had the most significant decline, dropping by -1.22% during the day.
Currency Market Updates
In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar index remained relatively flat, relinquishing earlier gains. This stabilization came as Treasury yields showed signs of faltering after a 10-year auction later in the day. The dollar had been supported by concerns about rising Treasury supply lifting yields, but confidence in this support diminished following successful 3-year and 10-year auctions earlier in the week. The outlook for the US dollar and the Federal Reserve remains dovish, with the market pricing in a minimal chance of another Fed rate hike and even potential cuts by mid-year. Next week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings are forecasted to be modest at just 0.1% month-on-month, further reinforcing the dovish sentiment in the market.
In other developments, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from early losses, supported by a broader pullback in the US dollar and rising 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads. However, the eurozone continued to experience poor economic data, and the European Central Bank (ECB) resisted easing expectations. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair saw a 0.3% increase but faced significant technical and options resistance at 151. It also grappled with the risk of intervention threats or actual USD/JPY sales from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. In this environment, the unexpected decline in energy prices, coupled with global geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, favored major importers like Japan and the eurozone over exporters like the United States. Sterling remained flat, with expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in mid-2024 despite UK inflation remaining high at 6.7%, indicating negative real gilts yields. Additionally, the Australian and Canadian dollars fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, while the offshore yuan lost 0.12% due to ongoing concerns about China’s property sector and U.S. lawmakers’ intent to increase tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles. The week’s economic calendar is relatively light, with jobless claims on Thursday and Michigan November sentiment data on Friday.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Rebounds Despite US Dollar Strength and ECB’s Dovish Outlook
The EUR/USD staged a rebound during the American session, regaining ground to reach the 1.0700 area, despite a strengthening US Dollar against riskier currencies. The final reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) displayed an annual rate of 3.8%, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a slowing economy and potential recession, leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to halt its tightening cycle, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, Eurozone Retail Sales declined slightly in September, with August figures revised higher. In the US, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s panel discussion and comments from Fed officials will be closely monitored, with the market expecting a dovish stance and anticipating confirmation from the upcoming US Consumer Price Index report on monetary policy expectations.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher on Wednesday, reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading around the middle band, indicating the potential for a consolidating move around the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0711, 1.0765
Support: 1.0675, 1.0615
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Faces Persistent Pressure Amidst Uncertain Rate Hike Outlook and Strong US Dollar Demand
Persistent demand for the US Dollar is keeping the XAU/USD pair near a two-week low of $1,950.93 per troy ounce. Central bank officials from the United States and Europe have downplayed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts but left room for potential tightening if inflation trends change. While global equities waver, Wall Street maintains its positive stance, and low Treasury yields raise questions about the feasibility of higher yields tightening financial conditions. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming panel discussion may shed more light on the monetary policy outlook, impacting the gold market.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves lower on Tuesday and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 31, indicating a bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite extended their winning streaks, marking their longest runs in nearly two years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a seven-day winning streak. Technology stocks and semiconductor companies experienced gains as yields dropped, and a cooling off in oil prices contributed to improved sentiment around inflation. Wall Street is closely monitoring the sustainability of this rally after a strong performance in November. In the currency market, the US dollar rebounded, while other major currencies faced challenges influenced by central bank comments and economic growth concerns.
Stock Market Updates
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite continued their winning streaks, marking their longest run in nearly two years and building on November’s positive momentum. The S&P 500 advanced by 0.28% to close at 4,378.38, while the Nasdaq surged by 0.9% to end at 13,639.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.17%, adding 56.74 points to settle at 34,152.60. The S&P 500 recorded a seventh consecutive day of gains, a feat it had last achieved in November 2021 with an eight-day winning streak, while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to eight days, reminiscent of its 11-day streak in November 2021. The Dow also notched a seven-day winning streak, marking its longest run since July. The rise in technology stocks was attributed to falling yields, with the 10-year Treasury note’s yield dropping by approximately 9 basis points to 4.573%. Tech giants like Amazon, Salesforce, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms experienced gains, and semiconductor stocks like Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Intel rose in anticipation of funding from the Chips Act. A cooling off in oil prices also contributed to improved sentiment around inflation.
Wall Street is keeping a close watch on the sustainability of the previous week’s rally, which was the best in 2023 for all three major indices. In November, the Dow saw a 3.3% increase, while the S&P and Nasdaq surged by 4.4% and 6.1%, respectively, so far this month. Additionally, the market is awaiting insights from central bank speakers, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and quarterly results from companies like Disney, Wynn Resorts, and Occidental Petroleum are expected later in the week. Despite some uncertainties, the market showed momentum and follow-through from the previous week’s gains, and investors are closely monitoring whether the positive trend can continue.
On Tuesday, across all sectors, the market experienced a modest increase of 0.28%. Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors outperformed the market with gains of 1.19% and 1.08%, respectively, while Communication Services and Consumer Staples also saw positive growth, with 0.55% and 0.21% gains. In contrast, the Energy sector had the most significant decline, plummeting by 2.23%, followed by Materials, which dropped by 1.87%. The Real Estate and Utilities sectors also saw declines of 0.88% and 0.73%, respectively. Financials and Industrials experienced more modest losses of 0.13% and 0.26%. Meanwhile, the Health Care sector had the smallest increase at 0.05%.
Currency Market Updates
In recent currency market updates, the US dollar experienced a notable rebound, with the dollar index rising by 0.36% on the back of broad-based gains. This recovery came as a correction following a post-payrolls drop, partly triggered by an unexpected 1.4% decrease in German industrial output and earlier risk-off flows, which had boosted demand for the safe-haven US currency. The EUR/USD currency pair saw a decline of 0.3%, though it found support just ahead of the 55-day moving average, which it had breached after the release of a weaker-than-expected US jobs report the previous Friday. Key insights from Federal Reserve speakers hinted at a reluctance to commit to imminent interest rate cuts and instead emphasized the possibility of future rate hikes should the current labor market cooling and inflationary trends persist. Traders and investors are now closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, for further guidance. Additionally, the dollar’s advance slowed as Treasury yields slipped, despite better-than-expected results from a 3-year Treasury auction.
While the US dollar was gaining strength, other major currencies faced challenges. Sterling, for example, slid by 0.44%, influenced by comments from the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill, who suggested that a rate cut could be considered around mid-2024. This outlook caused 2-year gilts yields to drop by 7 basis points. The Australian and Canadian dollars also faced losses, falling by 1% and 0.5%, respectively, effectively erasing the gains they had made on Friday. The Australian dollar found some support near its 55-day moving average. These declines were driven, in part, by what was perceived as a dovish stance on rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, coupled with a decrease in commodity prices. Overall, these currency market developments occurred amidst broader concerns about global economic growth, as evidenced by a 3.5% drop in crude oil prices, along with decreases in the prices of copper and gold.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Rebounds from Lows as Dollar Loses Momentum Amid Volatile Treasury Yields
In Tuesday’s trading, the EUR/USD initially dipped but later recovered, reaching the 1.0700 area. This correction was primarily driven by a stronger US Dollar, which lost its upward momentum due to increasing risk appetite and a reversal in Treasury yields. A negative report from Germany, showing a 1.4% contraction in Industrial Production in September, contributed to the Euro’s earlier decline. However, Eurostat’s Producer Price Index remained in line with expectations. The US Federal Reserve’s focus on data-guided decisions and an upcoming speech by Chair Jerome Powell will influence the Dollar’s trajectory. The volatile Treasury market played a significant role in shaping the Greenback’s movements, ultimately favoring the EUR/USD’s rebound and maintaining bullish sentiment.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower on Tuesday, reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading around the middle band, indicating the potential for a consolidating move around the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0711, 1.0765
Support: 1.0675, 1.0615
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
US Dollar Surge Temporarily Pressures Gold (XAU/USD) as Fed Hints at Further Rate Hikes
Gold (XAU/USD) faced downward pressure, falling to $1,956.65 per troy ounce, as the US Dollar gained strength due to cautious market sentiment, spurred by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting the possibility of additional rate hikes to address inflation concerns. However, the Greenback’s gains were trimmed later in the day as US stock markets rebounded, while US Treasury yields remained relatively subdued.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves lower on Tuesday and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38, indicating a slight bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $1,992, $2,007
Support: $1,962, $1,945
Economic Data
Currency
Data
Time (GMT + 8)
Forecast
NZD
Inflation Expectations q/q
10:00
Written on November 8, 2023 at 12:38 am, by anakin
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
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To provide a favorable trading environment to our clients, VT Markets will modify the trading setting of All Shares on MT5 on Nov 13, 2023:
1. Adjustment: New positions opened within 30 minutes before market closing and after market opening will start with leverage of 1:5. After the mentioned period, the leverage will be resumed to original leverage and will not be adjusted back to 1:5.
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On Monday, the stock market continued its positive momentum, with the Nasdaq Composite achieving its longest winning streak since January. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also edged up, with the market pausing to digest the previous week’s robust rally. Investors are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s announcements and corporate earnings reports for potential bullish catalysts. Additionally, the currency market saw some notable movements, with the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and other currencies responding to Treasury yields and economic data. As November traditionally performs well for the stock market, investors are keeping a close watch on market developments and central bank policies.
Stock Market Updates
On Monday, the stock market continued its positive momentum, building on last week’s strong rally. The Nasdaq Composite recorded its longest winning streak since January, rising by 0.3% to close at 13,518.78, while the S&P 500 edged up by 0.18% to finish at 4,365.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also inched up 0.1% to settle at 34,095.86. According to Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, the market appeared to be taking a pause to digest the previous week’s robust rally and was waiting for the next bullish catalyst, which could come from the Federal Reserve’s announcements or corporate earnings reports. Notably, Nvidia saw a 1.7% increase in its stock price due to optimism from Bank of America ahead of its earnings report, while Bumble’s shares dropped 4.4% following the announcement that its CEO would step down in January. Meanwhile, SolarEdge Technologies saw a 5.1% decline after a downgrade from Wells Fargo. Bond yields reversed their trend from the previous week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 9 basis points to approximately 4.653%.
The stock market’s recent performance marked the best week of 2023, with the Dow recording its largest weekly gain since October 2022, and the S&P and Nasdaq achieving their best weekly results since November 2022. A softer monthly jobs report had driven bond yields lower, providing support to equities. As the week progressed, there was a lighter schedule for economic data and company earnings, but seasonal tailwinds were expected to bolster the stock market’s recovery. November traditionally performs well for the S&P, and it marks the beginning of the best six-month return period for the market since 1950. The average return for the S&P has been 7% from November through April during this period. Earnings season was also winding down, with over 400 S&P companies having already reported their quarterly financial results. Investors were looking forward to updates from companies such as Walt Disney, Wynn, MGM Resorts, and Occidental Petroleum. Additionally, market participants were closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speeches, hoping for insights into the potential direction of the central bank’s monetary policy, given the recent trend of lower bond yields.
On Monday, the overall market showed a slight gain of 0.18%. Among the sectors, Information Technology and Health Care performed the best, with gains of 0.78% and 0.66%, respectively. The Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors also saw modest increases of 0.18% and 0.17%. On the other hand, the Energy and Real Estate sectors faced significant declines, dropping by 1.19% and 1.41%, respectively. The Industrials and Utilities sectors experienced losses of 0.26% and 0.28%, while Financials and Materials both declined by 0.39% and 0.51%.
Currency Market Updates
In the aftermath of Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs data release, the U.S. dollar index remained relatively stable on Monday. Modest gains in the Euro to U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) and the British pound, however, were countered by gains in the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) pairs, largely driven by the rebound in Treasury yields. Much of the previous week’s decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar was attributed to speculative short positions in the Treasury market being squeezed. This squeeze followed relief over the Treasury refunding announcement, diminishing concerns of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and was compounded by the soft employment and ISM non-manufacturing reports released on Friday. As Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar appear to be less vulnerable to further losses, market focus turns to the upcoming $112 billion Treasury refund scheduled for Tuesday to Thursday, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the week, which are expected to caution against overpricing substantial rate cuts in 2024. The U.S. economic calendar for the week is relatively light, with the next significant data point being the November 14th Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The CPI is anticipated to show modest growth at 0.1% and 0.3% in both overall and core month-on-month figures, which could reinforce the current market expectations for a rate cut by June.
The currency market experienced some notable movements on Monday, with the EUR/USD reaching a high of 1.0756 but facing resistance from Fibonacci levels and the limited continuation of last week’s yield spread between German bunds and U.S. Treasuries. The convergence of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.0805-6 and the daily cloud top at 1.0799 on Tuesday represent key technical levels to watch. While Friday’s surge above the 55-day moving average was seen as bullish, the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) pair rose by 0.33%, fueled by the rebound in Treasury yields, leaving Japanese government bond (JGB) yields relatively unchanged. The trajectory of Treasury yields this week, influenced by supply dynamics and Federal Reserve comments, is a pivotal factor for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s potential shift away from yield curve control and negative interest rates may receive some guidance from Japan’s wage data scheduled for Tuesday. Higher long-term JGB yields could make holding foreign exchange-hedged Treasury positions less attractive, thereby supporting the Japanese yen. Notably, the USD/JPY’s recent decline from its 2023 peak to last year’s 32-year high at 151.74/94 raises concerns about a significant double-top reversal in the making. Sterling experienced a slight decline on Monday after relinquishing early gains, with its movement capped by the 200-day moving average. On the other hand, higher-beta currencies like the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan gained 0.3% and 0.42%, respectively.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Faces Headwinds as USD Index Rebounds Amid Uncertainty Over Fed’s Rate-Hike Path
The EUR/USD pair encounters resistance as the USD Index (DXY) rebounds from an eight-week low, fueled by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate hikes. This shift led to an uptick in US Treasury bond yields and USD short covering. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next policy move has caused investors to speculate that the rate-hiking cycle may be approaching its end, with market pricing indicating a higher chance of a rate cut in June 2024. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming appearances for further guidance.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower on Monday, easing from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading between the upper and middle band, indicating the potential for a slight lower movement to reach the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0765, 1.0835
Support: 1.0693, 1.0615
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
XAU/USD Softens as Positive Market Sentiment Eases Safety Demand
At the beginning of the week, a more optimistic market sentiment diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets, causing Gold (XAU/USD) to trade at around $1,983 per troy ounce with a softer tone. This decline was tempered by the relative absence of the US Dollar in investors’ focus. Despite limited activity in stock markets due to a lack of significant news, Wall Street’s major indexes extended their gains from Friday. This was supported by government bonds and equities, as the United States Nonfarm Payrolls Report and the Federal Reserve’s announcement signaled the end of the monetary tightening cycle. Central banks worldwide also expressed concerns about the impact of tightening on economic growth rather than current inflation levels, contributing to the overall market stability. While this week lacks significant economic events, the upcoming one is expected to bring updates on inflation from major economies, including the United States.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves lower on Monday and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38, indicating a slight bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.
[Sydney, Australia, 6 November 2023] – Award-winning online broker VT Markets has officially appointed Styliana Charalambous as its Market Analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA).
In addition to being an ACCA-qualified accountant, Charalambous brings with her an array of unique skills honed from her time as an Audit Supervisor at KPMG and as the Head of Investment and Market Research at a leading multinational fintech firm. Leveraging over 9 years of experience in the finance industry, she is set to play a pivotal role for VT Markets and its clients moving into the future.
In her position as Market Analyst, Charalambous will be overhauling VT Markets’ existing approach to analytical discovery, bringing forth deeper insights and extensive market reports. Additionally, she will establish and uphold new standards for ethicality, transparency, and fairness, ensuring VT Markets’ clients receive unbiased and data-driven recommendations. “I look forward to not only sharing analyses but also enabling clients to make forward-thinking, proactive decisions amidst the ever-evolving world of trading,” said Charalambous.
Commenting on Charalambous’ role, the CEO of VT Markets expressed similar enthusiasm, stating: “Styliana’s inclusion in our team signifies our ongoing commitment to excellence. We recognise the immense opportunities in the EMEA markets, and Styliana’s analytical expertise will be pivotal in helping us navigate the unique challenges and nuances of this region.”
As VT Markets continues expanding its global interests, Charalambous’ appointment marks another significant triumph in the broker’s efforts to break into strategic territories.
Over the short and mid-term, partners and clients alike can look forward to more trading options and the same consistent standards of excellence that have made VT Markets one of the fastest-growing players in its space.
About VT Markets:
VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries. To date, it has won numerous international accolades including Best Customer Service and Fastest Growing Broker.
In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets currently offers unfettered access to over 1,000 financial instruments and a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile app.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
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