Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

In November, Japan’s construction orders showed a significant improvement compared to October. The year-on-year change went from a 10.1% drop to a 9.5% rise. This shift indicates a positive trend in the construction sector, suggesting a recovery from recent declines.

Implications Of Increased Construction Orders

The rise in construction orders could positively impact the overall economy. It hints at more activity and investment in the construction industry during this time. These figures are valuable for understanding the economic health of Japan’s construction sector. Higher construction activity can signal growth and progress in the country. The unexpected rebound in Japan’s construction orders—from a sharp decline to 9.5% growth—suggests renewed economic confidence. This increase points to a rise in domestic investment and activity, which should benefit industries and materials sectors. Therefore, we should consider investing in strong Japanese equities. This strong domestic data challenges the belief that the Bank of Japan will remain inactive. With core inflation around 2.4% in recent months, this economic acceleration might push policymakers to shift away from their ultra-loose policy sooner than expected. This creates a compelling argument for a stronger Japanese Yen in the near future.

Nikkei 225 Index Opportunities

For the Nikkei 225 index, which has been fluctuating within a tight range, this news could spark a significant upward movement. We recommend buying near-term call options on the index, as this data enhances the outlook for corporate earnings in the first half of 2026. A similar increase in construction orders in 2021 preceded a multi-month rally in the stock market. This turnaround reminds us of the economic momentum in 2013, when positive surprises kept driving markets higher. It indicates that, despite a weak third quarter, the Japanese economy’s underlying health is better than recent perceptions have suggested. We may be underestimating the pace of domestic recovery. As a result, implied volatility for JPY-related currency pairs is expected to rise from its current lows. We should consider buying volatility through simple option strategies to prepare for a larger-than-expected move in the USD/JPY. This approach will allow us to benefit from the increased uncertainty surrounding monetary policy expectations. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The State of Gold The GBP/USD is steady around 1.3500 as trading remains light. Many traders are cautious during this holiday season. Bitcoin dropped below $87,000 because of increased ETF outflows and less buying from large investors. US-listed spot ETFs saw an outflow of $188.64 million, which impacted Bitcoin’s price. Avalanche is holding around $12 after a small decline due to Grayscale’s attempt to convert its Avalanche Trust into an ETF. This filing has influenced market feelings and trading behavior. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, the economic outlook in advanced countries looks strong after a resilient year. There is optimism for significant growth in the near future. Strategies for Traders The sudden outflow of over ¥1.2 trillion from Japanese stocks is alarming. This is the fastest drop since early 2024. Traders might want to consider shorting Nikkei 225 futures or buying put options, as this negative trend is likely to continue into next year. Although gold has slightly fallen from its peak above $4,500, we see this as a brief pause due to holiday profit-taking. The Federal Reserve’s guidance from December 12, 2025, suggests three rate cuts for 2026, which should support the rise in precious metals. This dip could be a good chance to buy call options on both gold and silver futures in Q1 2026. Holiday trading has kept the S&P 500 steady, and market volatility is low with the VIX around 13.5. This low volatility makes options cheaper, allowing traders to position for growth anticipated in 2026. We are considering buying longer-term call options on major US indices to take advantage of this potential upside while managing risk. The difference in approaches between the dovish Federal Reserve and other central banks is opening up opportunities in the forex market. The Bank of Canada, for instance, indicated on December 5, 2025, that it would maintain a hawkish stance, leading the Canadian dollar to rise against the USD. We recommend shorting the US Dollar Index using futures or put options to capitalize on this policy divergence. Interest in Bitcoin is declining as ETF outflows speed up, with more than $850 million withdrawn just last week. The inability to break past the critical $90,000 resistance level indicates a bearish shift in momentum. We see a chance to buy put options on Bitcoin futures to hedge or speculate on a decline toward the $80,000 support level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Japan’s foreign investment in stocks plummeted from ¥528.3 billion to ¥-1 billion by December 19, signaling a major change in how investors view Japanese markets. The USD/CAD is near a five-month low, benefiting from differences in policies between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, gold is retreating from its record highs as investors take profits during quieter trading times.

Currency And Commodity Trends

The GBP/USD pair is slightly moving as holiday trading slows, hovering around 1.3500. Silver is rising for the fourth straight day, driven by hopes for Federal Reserve easing and its status as a safe-haven asset. On Christmas Eve, the EUR/USD is moving sideways and struggling for direction below 1.1800 with less trading activity. Gold is down from its highs, settling under $4,500, partly due to ongoing US Dollar weakness. Bitcoin is trading just below $87,000, following significant ETF outflows and reduced activity from major investors, known as whales. Recent data shows a continued outflow from US-listed spot ETFs, amounting to $188.64 million on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive day. Avalanche is around $12 as Grayscale updates its ETF filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The market remains under pressure after a slight decline from the previous day.

Market Sentiments And Predictions

We are witnessing a notable shift in attitude toward Japanese stocks. The drop in foreign investment to a negative position is a serious warning, especially after the strong inflows seen in 2023 and 2024. This could signal a potential near-term peak, making put options on the Nikkei 225 an appealing hedge for early 2026. The US Dollar’s weakness is expected to persist into the new year due to anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve. Recent Core PCE data from November 2025 shows inflation cooling toward the 2% target. The market is pricing in rate cuts for the first half of 2026, favoring short positions on the dollar against currencies from central banks like the Canadian Dollar that are more hawkish. Gold’s pullback from its record high above $4,520 should be seen as a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. Strong support remains from the expected Fed rate cuts. We experienced similar profit-taking during the 2024 bull run before prices increased. Any dip below $4,450 is viewed as a buying opportunity for call options expiring in the first quarter of 2026. In the cryptocurrency market, the recent four-day streak of ETF outflows indicates institutional caution as we approach the end of the year. This contrasts sharply with the strong inflows that spurred the market following ETF approvals in early 2024. Until we see a steady return of positive flows, we suggest avoiding long positions and considering protective puts on major crypto assets like Bitcoin. Overall market activity is quiet for the holidays, but low liquidity may lead to larger price swings if unexpected news arises. We are monitoring the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is near multi-year lows, indicating market complacency. Traders should be cautious and may want to buy inexpensive, out-of-the-money options to guard against sudden volatility spikes when full trading resumes in January. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The U.S. seven-year note auction showed a yield of 3.93%, up from the previous 3.781%. This news comes as discussions continue about USD/CAD exchange rates, gold market changes, and GBP/USD trading conditions. Gold prices have dropped from their highs as the market took profits, and holiday trading has been quiet. Bitcoin also fell, trading around $86,770, due to increased ETF outflows and less activity from major investors.

Economic Forecasts for 2026

Forecasts for 2026 suggest a strong economic year, building on trends from 2025. Avalanche is priced near $12, with Grayscale recently adjusting its trust into an ETF. An editorial note states that the views shared are from content contributors and not investment advice. FXStreet reminds users about market risks and encourages thorough research before making any financial decisions, highlighting the possibility of losses and emotional impacts. The latest seven-year note auction exceeded expectations, indicating the market wants higher yields on government debt. This challenges the idea of a highly dovish Federal Reserve in 2026. We should explore strategies that benefit from rising interest rates, such as buying puts on treasury bond ETFs. With thin holiday trading keeping equity markets calm, now is a good time to consider protective strategies for the upcoming year. Recent data shows that November’s core Consumer Price Index remains steady at 2.8%, and the unemployment rate is low at 3.9%. This gives the Fed less incentive to cut rates. We can take this quiet time to buy VIX calls or out-of-the-money puts on the S&P 500, as these options are relatively inexpensive before full market activity resumes in January.

The US Dollar and Fiscal Movements

The U.S. Dollar has weakened, but the surprising bond auction results may prompt a turnaround. The difference between market hopes for rate cuts and recent data could create volatility. There’s an opportunity to use options straddles on major currency pairs like EUR/USD, potentially allowing for gains after the holiday season ends. Gold is taking a pause after reaching an all-time high above $4,520, which often happens when investors take profits. A similar pattern occurred in late 2023 when gold consolidated before rising again as the Fed shifted towards a dovish stance in early 2024. This dip might be a good chance to sell puts below the current market price, allowing us to collect premiums or gain gold exposure at a lower price. Bitcoin’s recent decline is tied to institutional selling, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $500 million in net outflows last week. This marks a significant change from the strong inflows that had boosted prices earlier in the quarter. Until these flows stabilize, it’s wise to be cautious and consider protective puts to safeguard long positions. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The USD/CAD is currently at a five-month low as holiday trading has reduced market activity. The Canadian Dollar is benefiting from differences in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the BoC expected to maintain its rates until 2026. Even though the US Dollar (USD) is strong, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has seen modest gains. Right now, USD/CAD is around 1.3675, its lowest level since July.

Canadian and US Economies

On Tuesday, Canada’s GDP data showed a 0.3% contraction in October, which matched expectations. In contrast, the US economy’s preliminary GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.3%, exceeding forecasts. The BoC has decided to keep its policy rate at 2.25%, signaling an end to its easing cycle, while the Fed is expected to ease slowly. Markets predict that the BoC will hold its rates steady until 2026, but the timing of future rate cuts from the Fed remains unclear. Several factors are influencing the CAD, such as the BoC’s interest rates, oil prices, economic health, inflation, and trade balance. Generally, high oil prices and positive economic data boost the CAD by attracting foreign investment. Increased inflation might lead to higher interest rates, which would benefit the CAD. A strong economy can draw foreign investors and strengthen the Canadian Dollar. With USD/CAD testing its five-month low near 1.3675, the main factor at play is the widening gap between the BoC and the Fed’s policies. Current holiday-thinned markets keep volatility low, but this might be a good time to prepare for early 2026. We expect the BoC to maintain firm rates while the Fed looks to cut.

Canadian Dollar and Energy Markets

The ongoing divergence in policies is supported by recent data worth monitoring. November’s Canadian inflation report showed a stubborn 2.9% year-over-year increase, giving the BoC good reason to keep its 2.25% policy rate. Meanwhile, markets are predicting over a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut by their March 2026 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Canadian dollar is also benefiting significantly from energy markets. WTI crude oil prices have risen above $82 per barrel due to higher winter demand forecasts and sustained OPEC+ supply discipline. Since oil is Canada’s largest export, this price strength provides a solid underpinning for the loonie. For traders in derivatives, the low implied volatility during this quiet holiday season presents an opportunity to buy options at a lower cost. Buying Canadian dollar call options or US dollar put options expiring in late Q1 2026 could be a smart way to take advantage of this trend. These positions would profit if the CAD remains weak when trading volume returns in January. However, we need to keep potential risks in mind. Recent data shows that the Canadian economy contracted in October 2025, while US Q3 GDP was a strong 4.3%, indicating a more robust US economy. Additionally, speculative positioning data suggests that long Canadian dollar trades are becoming crowded, which could result in a sharp reversal if sentiment changes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The United States 4-week bill auction rate fell slightly to 3.57%, down from 3.58%. This small change reflects a minor adjustment in short-term government borrowing costs. In the currency market, USD/CAD is close to a five-month low because of differing policies between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD also saw a small dip during quieter holiday trading.

Gold and Bitcoin Updates

Gold has pulled back from its record highs, now priced under $4,500, as investors take profits. The dollar remains weak due to expectations of a more relaxed Fed policy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped below $87,000, with U.S.-listed spot ETFs losing $188.64 million. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, advanced countries are expected to see a positive economic outlook supported by factors from 2025. Avalanche is now trading close to $12, as Grayscale updates its form to convert its Trust into an ETF. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are trading within narrow ranges due to low market activity over the holiday season. This quiet trading environment has kept these currency pairs stable. The slight dip in the 4-week Treasury bill yield shows that the market doesn’t expect any hawkish surprises from the Federal Reserve soon. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut by the end of the first quarter of 2026, supporting a risk-on attitude. This low expectation for rates suggests we might see some complacency after the holidays, making it a good time to sell short-dated call options on the VIX.

US Dollar and Gold Strategies

The U.S. Dollar’s weakness, especially against commodity currencies like the Canadian loonie, is likely to continue into the next year. With the Dollar Index (DXY) around 98.50, a level not seen consistently since early 2024, the trend seems to be heading lower. This makes buying call options on currency ETFs like FXC (Canadian Dollar) and FXA (Australian Dollar) a smart move for early January. Gold’s pullback from its peak above $4,520 appears to be a normal holiday drop on low trading volume, not a signal of a change in trend. Open interest in gold futures has risen by 2% this week, suggesting that new buyers are seizing this opportunity. Thus, any price drop below $4,500 might be a chance to invest in long positions through call spreads on gold and silver futures. Equity markets are calm, but the outlook for 2026 remains positive due to expected strong growth. Implied volatility on the S&P 500 has decreased to a 24-month low of 11.2, making options cheaper compared to the volatility seen in 2023. This presents a strong case for buying long-dated call options or LEAPS on key indices like SPX and NDX in anticipation of an upcoming rally. Bitcoin’s current drop below $87,000 is largely due to ETF outflows, totaling over $500 million in just a week. While this puts short-term pressure on Bitcoin, it contrasts with the institutional buying we saw throughout most of 2025. This difference suggests the potential benefit of protective put options or put spreads to safeguard against a possible decline toward the $82,000 support level in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Gold has pulled back from its recent record high of $4,526 and is currently trading at about $4,470. Although it rose by 3% this week, we are seeing some profit-taking as technical indicators suggest the market is a bit too hot. This year, gold prices have jumped over 70%, approaching their best annual performance since 1979. This surge comes from safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025.

US Economic Indicators

US economic indicators are sending mixed messages. Jobless Claims fell to 214,000, while Continuing Claims increased to 1.923 million. The Q3 GDP growth was a solid 4.3%, yet Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence are weaker, putting pressure on the US dollar. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady, but many are looking ahead to possible cuts. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are adding to market unease. From a technical perspective, gold may be in a phase of short-term consolidation due to a bearish RSI divergence, but the overarching trend remains upward. Immediate resistance is noted at $4,500, while support might be at the 9-day SMA around $4,372. Gold continues to be a favored investment, valued for its historical role as a safe haven during tough times. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have boosted their gold reserves, leading to record high purchases in 2022. Generally, gold moves inversely to the US dollar and other risky assets, influenced by factors like geopolitical unrest, recession fears, interest rates, and the US dollar’s strength.

Commitments And Market Movements

The recent dip from the peak near $4,526 appears to be a temporary consolidation rather than a full trend reversal. The light trading during the holiday season is likely intensifying this profit-taking, while the bearish RSI divergence serves as a technical alert. In the upcoming weeks, traders should be cautious about chasing new highs and instead be ready for a possible dip. The latest Commitment of Traders report indicates that speculative net-long positions are the highest since 2020, making the market susceptible to a sudden sell-off. We suggest buying protective puts with expirations in late January 2026 as a smart way to hedge current long positions. This will help you maintain your bullish outlook while safeguarding your portfolio against a decline toward the initial support at $4,381. Looking ahead to 2026, the fundamentals for gold look strong. The 75 basis points rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, along with market expectations for further easing, will keep the pressure on the US dollar. We witnessed a similar situation in 2019 when the Fed shifted from raising to cutting rates, leading to a significant gold rally that lasted over a year. Recent data backs this optimistic view. The Consumer Price Index report for November 2025 indicated persistent inflation at 4.1%, supporting the Fed’s cautious approach despite robust Q3 GDP numbers. Additionally, World Gold Council statistics show that central banks continued their record buying spree, acquiring another 280 tonnes in Q3 2025, which adds a solid foundation under the market. So, any substantial dip should be seen as a buying opportunity. The 50-day moving average, currently around $4,167, is a crucial level where buyers have previously entered the market. Selling cash-secured puts with a strike price near $4,200 for February 2026 could be an effective strategy to either generate income or buy in at a more favorable price. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

Russia’s industrial output in November fell by 0.7%, missing the expected growth of 1.2%. This shows a decrease in production from what was anticipated. In other market news, USD/CAD is near a five-month low because of differing policies between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Gold prices have dropped from their all-time highs and are now under $4,500 as profit-taking occurs.

Pound Sterling Stability

The Pound Sterling is stable around 1.3500 against the US Dollar in a calm market. Bitcoin’s price has fallen to $86,770, with increased ETF outflows marking the fourth day of withdrawals. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, analysts expect strong economic growth in advanced countries. Many positive trends from 2025 are likely to continue. Avalanche’s price is struggling around $12 after a nearly 2% decline. Grayscale has applied to turn its Avalanche Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. As we near the end of the year, trading remains low due to holiday market thinning. This usually leads to lower implied volatility across major indices, making short-term options cheaper. However, low liquidity might amplify price movements in response to unexpected news, so traders should be cautious.

Russian Industrial Output

The unexpected drop in Russian industrial output for November points to underlying weakness. Keep an eye on USD/RUB futures; they may rise if the pair hits resistance levels previously seen in the 90-92 range during late 2023. This data might also impact energy prices if it suggests weaker global demand. Gold is pulling back from its record high above $4,520, reflecting profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. We can remember similar patterns, like the consolidation phase that followed the 2020 peak, lasting several months. Selling out-of-the-money call options to collect premiums could be a sound strategy while the market adjusts to these new highs. The tight ranges in major currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD highlight market indecision as we head into 2026. Data shows that foreign exchange volatility is at its lowest in over six months, confirming this quiet atmosphere. This makes option-selling strategies, like iron condors, appealing for income generation while these pairs remain stuck in a range. The ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows, now four days in a row, are creating considerable challenges. We witnessed a similar situation with Grayscale outflows in early 2024, which led to a price drop of over 15% in just a few weeks. Traders might consider buying put options to protect against or speculate on further declines toward the next support level. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now

The British Pound (GBP) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD) on a holiday-affected Wednesday. Currently, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3500, down slightly from an intraday peak of 1.3534, which was the highest since mid-September. During the European session, the Pound Sterling reached a three-month high of 1.3535 against the USD. Although the US Q3 GDP data showed unexpected growth, it did not reduce the market’s expectations of a softer Federal Reserve (Fed) approach in 2026.

Pound Sterling Trades Strongly

The GBP/USD pair is trading positively around 1.3510 in early European trading. Its strength comes from expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2026, pushing it above the 1.3500 mark. FXStreet provides general market information and reminds investors that financial investments carry risks. It encourages thorough research and understanding of financial risks before making any investment choices. The Pound is holding steady against the Dollar, hovering near the 1.3500 level. Trading is quiet due to the Christmas Eve holiday, but the trend is influenced by the belief that the central banks will take different paths. The market increasingly expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates slower in 2026 than the US Federal Reserve. This view on the BoE is backed by November 2025 inflation data, which showed UK CPI remaining high at 3.9%, above the bank’s target. As a result, the BoE kept its policy rate steady at 5.25% in December, indicating any easing next year will be cautious. This approach should continue to support the Pound Sterling.

Federal Reserve And Market Trends

In the US, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is bolstered by decreasing price pressures. The latest core PCE inflation data for November 2025 showed an annualized rate of 3.2%. This gives the Fed more room to start cutting rates. We expect this difference in policy to drive currency markets in the first quarter of 2026. For derivatives traders, the low implied volatility during this holiday season provides an opportunity for positioning ahead of next year. We suggest purchasing GBP/USD call options that expire in late March or April 2026 as a smart way to bet on potential upward movement when liquidity returns. This situation reminds us of early 2020, when differences in central bank policies created lasting trade trends. In the next few days, traders should be careful of unpredictable price shifts due to low trading volume. Sudden movements are typical between Christmas and New Year’s and may not accurately reflect market sentiment. Any dips toward the 1.3400 mark could be a good opportunity to build positions for the new year. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

here to set up a live account on VT Markets now