In the week ahead, market participants will turn their attention to key economic events including the US ISM Services PMI, as well as rate statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BOC). As analysts make their predictions, all eyes will be on these releases to understand their potential impact on financial markets
Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (5 June 2023)
Consumer prices in Switzerland stalled in April 2023, showing less growth than the 0.2% rise observed in March 2023.
For May 2023 data, which is set to be released on 5 June 2023, analysts expect a 0.1% increase.
US ISM Services PMI (5 June 2023)
The US ISM Services PMI increased to 51.9 in April 2023 from 51.2 in March 2023.
Data for May 2023 is scheduled for release on 5 June 2023, with analysts anticipating a higher figure of 52.1.
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (6 June 2023)
In a surprising move, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% in May 2023, after keeping it at 3.6% in April 2023. This marks the 11th time the bank has increased rates in the past year.
The next cash rate will be released on 6 June 2023, with analysts expecting the RBA to hold its interest rate at 3.85%.
Bank of Canada Rate Statement (7 June 2023)
In its April 2023 meeting, the Bank of Canada (BOC) kept the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 4.5% and stated that it would continue to monitor the latest economic data for future decisions on the policy rate.
The next rate statement will be released on 7 June 2023. Analysts anticipate that the BOC will keep its interest rate steady at 4.5%.
Canada Employment Change (9 June 2023)
Canada’s economy added 41,400 jobs in April 2023 due to increased part-time work, the first growth since October 2022. The unemployment rate stayed at 5% for the fifth month, near the record-low of 4.9%.
For May 2023 data, set to be released on 9 June 2023, analysts predict that job creation will dip to 40,000 and the unemployment rate will rise to 5.1%.
Stocks experienced gains as the U.S. House of Representatives successfully passed a debt ceiling bill, reducing the risk of a default. Despite a 4.7% decline in Salesforce shares following their earnings report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47%, closing at 33,061.57. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also reached their highest levels since August 2022, with gains of 0.99% and 1.28% respectively. With the debt ceiling issue resolved, investors now turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting and the potential impact of rising interest rates.
The bipartisan passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, by a vote of 314-117, brought relief to the market by removing a major negative catalyst. The Senate is expected to follow suit, ensuring the bill reaches President Biden’s desk. Analysts suggest that the equity market had already discounted the debt ceiling concerns, shifting focus to the possibility of future interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, positive economic data, including stronger-than-expected private payroll growth and lower-than-forecasted jobless claims, reinforced the market’s optimism about the economy’s recovery. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for insights into the central bank’s stance on interest rates.
On Thursday, the stock market saw overall gains, with all sectors experiencing positive movement except for Consumer Staples and Utilities. The Information Technology sector led the way with a strong increase of 1.33%, followed closely by Industrials, Materials, and Energy, all of which saw gains above 1%. Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services also performed well, with increases of 1.22% and 1.15% respectively. Financials and Health Care sectors showed solid growth as well, with gains of 1.09% and 0.67% respectively. Real Estate had minimal movement, with a slight increase of 0.03%. However, the Consumer Staples sector experienced a slight decline of -0.09%, while Utilities saw a notable decrease of -0.78%.
Major Pair Movement
On Thursday, the U.S. dollar weakened as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle grew, while optimism surrounding the debt ceiling eased and U.S. economic data indicated a cooling economy. The dollar’s decline was also influenced by positive news from Europe, including better-than-expected economic indicators and the European Central Bank’s potential interest rate hikes. Additionally, the ADP report exceeded expectations, but revisions to previous job data and other economic indicators revealed a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Investors are closely watching Friday’s payrolls data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s future actions and the impact on the dollar. If the payrolls report continues to outperform expectations, it could lead to a more bearish outlook for the dollar. Currently, a June rate hike by the Fed is seen as unlikely, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike in July is uncertain, while rate cuts are priced in for later in the year.
Meanwhile, the euro strengthened by 0.7% against the dollar, reaching its highest level in six sessions, supported by rebounding yield spreads and oversold charts. Sterling and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar also gained ground. However, the yen experienced a 0.4% loss due to declining Treasury-JGB yields and a reversal of the overbought uptrend observed in May.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Surges as Dollar Weakens Amid Falling Fed Rate Hike Expectations
The EUR/USD experienced a significant rally on Thursday, propelled by a widespread decline in the US dollar as expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes diminished ahead of the US employment report. Eurozone data confirmed a slowdown in inflation, providing relief for the European Central Bank (ECB) and reducing the need for further interest rate increases. The weakening dollar was driven by signals from Fed officials suggesting a pause in rate hikes and increasing market expectations of future rate cuts.
Additionally, improved market sentiment, supported by positive Chinese data, the resolution of the debt ceiling issue, and easing inflation data, contributed to the dollar’s decline. Focus now turns to the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to provide further insights into the US economic situation.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is moving higher on Thursday, creating upward momentum towards the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, EUR/USD is trading near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. We anticipate that the EUR/USD will experience a slight downward movement today and attempt to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 61, indicating that the EUR/USD has entered the overbought zone.
Resistance: 1.0766, 1.0824
Support: 1.0706, 1.0671
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
Gold (XAU/USD)Rises as US Dollar Weighed Down by Mixed Economic Signals
The US dollar experienced a turbulent day of fluctuations as investors digested news from the United States, resulting in significant selling pressure on the currency and pushing XAU/USD (gold) to trade around $1,980 per troy ounce. The initial optimism surrounding the suspension of the debt-limit ceiling was followed by a brief recovery in the dollar due to positive labor market indicators. However, a downward revision in Q1 Unit Labor Costs and a contraction in the May ISM Manufacturing PMI underscored the fragility of the US economy, weakening the dollar and creating an environment favorable for gold. These mixed economic signals have put the Federal Reserve in a challenging position, with pressure to maintain an aggressive monetary policy while inflation remains subdued.
According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is exhibiting upward movement on Thursday, approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. There is a possibility that the XAU/USD will experience a minor downward correction and retrace towards the middle of the Bollinger Bands throughout the day. At present, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, suggesting that the XAU/USD is currently in the overbought zone.
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Stocks declined on Wednesday as investors closely watched the federal debt ceiling debate in Washington. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.41%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.63%. A debt ceiling deal between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy progressed to the House floor, with a vote expected later in the day. While analysts anticipate the deal to pass, concerns remain about potential adjustments and the need for more time to reach an official agreement. Investors are also focusing on the upcoming June Federal Reserve policy meeting.
The May trading month concluded with mixed performance. The Nasdaq Composite experienced a 5.8% increase, driven by gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks and technology companies. Despite a temporary loss in month-to-date gains during Wednesday’s market sell-off, the S&P 500 closed the month with a modest 0.3% gain. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by almost 3.5% in May, primarily due to significant losses in several major companies, including Nike, Walt Disney, Walgreens, 3M, Chevron, and Dow, Inc. Investors are taking precautionary measures ahead of the debt ceiling vote, securing profits before potential market volatility.
On Wednesday, the stock market experienced a mixed performance across different sectors. The Utilities sector showed a gain of 0.96%, followed by Health Care with a positive movement of 0.85%. Real Estate also saw a modest increase of 0.66%, while Consumer Staples had a slight gain of 0.07%. However, there were declines in various sectors, with Energy being the hardest hit, dropping by 1.88%. Industrials experienced a decline of 1.40%, followed by Financials at -1.14%. Information Technology and Materials both had significant losses, with decreases of 1.09% and 1.12% respectively. Consumer Discretionary also showed a negative trend, declining by 0.92%. Communication Services had a slight decrease of 0.05%. These variations reflect the sector-specific performance and market dynamics observed on Wednesday.
Major Pair Movement
On Wednesday, the dollar index saw a 0.25% increase as EUR/USD declined by 0.56% due to indications of reduced need for rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). Additionally, unexpected growth in U.S. job openings initially boosted the dollar, although concerns about overstating labor tightness and a negative miss in economic data tempered expectations for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The dollar and yen benefited from derisking flows, while the euro, yuan, and China-linked currencies faced the most significant impact.
The market is closely monitoring the upcoming payrolls report on Friday, as it could influence the timing of rate hikes between June and July. The Fed and ECB are expected to raise rates by 25 basis points (bp) and 50bp, respectively, but the exact timing will depend on economic indicators. The yield curve inversion and hawkish Fed news weighed on banking stocks, although losses were mitigated by less hawkish signals from the Fed. EUR/USD hit a low not seen since March 20, and traders are eyeing a potential retest of 2023’s lows near 1.05. USD/JPY retreated after a brief rebound, and sterling recovered from earlier declines, posting a 0.17% increase.
Key highlights for Thursday include ADP employment data, jobless claims figures, and the ISM Manufacturing Index.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Plunges Amid Souring Sentiment and US Debt-Limit Concerns
The EUR/USD experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday as risk aversion prompted an increased demand for the U.S. dollar against higher-yielding currencies. The pair reached a low of 1.0658 during the European session but managed a slight recovery to trade at 1.0685. Investor concerns revolved around the U.S. debt-limit bill, which President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal on Sunday. The bill faced doubts from representatives of both ruling parties, needing to make progress within the next 24 hours. Additionally, Chinese economic data, including a contraction in the NBS Manufacturing PMI, added to the negative sentiment. The European session revealed a decrease in German inflation, further highlighting easing price pressures in the Eurozone. Market participants will await the release of the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and JOLTS Job Openings later in the day, along with insights from Federal Reserve officials, as they anticipate the central bank’s upcoming monetary policy meeting.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is moving lower on Wednesday, creating a push for the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, EUR/USD moving back higher and trying to reach the middle band of the Bollinger bands. We are expecting that the EUR/USD will continue its upward movement today and try to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43, indicating that the EUR/USD has returned to a neutral position.
Resistance: 1.0711, 1.0761
Support: 1.0655, 1.0636
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
Gold (XAU/USD)Holds Gains as Risk Aversion Persists Amidst Concerns over US Debt Ceiling
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued its weekly rally, reaching $1,974.76 per troy ounce, its highest level in a week. XAU/USD is trading around $1,965, retaining its gains amidst a general aversion to risk. The market sentiment turned negative on Tuesday and remained subdued on Wednesday due to lackluster Chinese data and uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling bill. In addition, the April JOLTS Job Openings report showed a robust job market, leading market participants to factor in a 71% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike at the upcoming June Fed monetary policy meeting. The strengthening US Dollar against major currencies, driven by a decline in stock markets, caused XAU/USD to retreat slightly from its peak. However, thanks to its safe-haven status, gold maintained a significant portion of its intraday gains. The US debt-ceiling bill has made progress, passing the House Rules Committee and moving into Congress, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing the intention to expedite its floor vote in the Senate.
According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD is moving higher on Wednesday, reaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and break our previous resistance level at $1,962. There is a possibility that the XAU/USD will make a slight downward movement and return to the middle of the Bollinger Bands for today. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating that the XAU/USD is in a neutral position but slightly bullish.
To provide a favorable trading environment to our clients, VT Markets will modify the trading setting of TRY Crosses products on June 05, 2023; Please find the table below for more information about this modification:
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On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline as investors considered the prospects of Congress passing a tentative deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The index closed down 50.56 points or 0.15% at 33,042.78. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a minimal gain of 0.002%, closing at 4,205.52, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.32% to finish at 13,017.43, albeit after paring back earlier gains.
Over the weekend, President Joe Biden and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, aiming to avoid a default. The proposed bill will require support from both Republicans and Democrats to pass, with Congress scheduled to vote on it as early as Wednesday. Despite this progress, there are still hurdles to overcome in the House, as opposition within the GOP has been growing.
Investors also expressed concerns about the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 68.8% chance of a rate increase next month. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin maintained his rate forecast, stating that he hasn’t changed his position and that his forecast is among the higher ones within the central bank. The market is closely watching the Fed’s actions and how incoming inflation data will influence its decisions.
The Nasdaq received a boost from Nvidia, an artificial intelligence-related stock, which saw a nearly 3% rally. The stock reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion during Tuesday’s session, joining the elite group of companies that have achieved this milestone, following its strong earnings report from the previous week.
On Tuesday, the overall market performance was neutral, with all sectors collectively showing no change (+0.00%). Among the sectors that experienced gains, Consumer Discretionary had the highest increase of 0.76%, followed by Information Technology at 0.63%. Real Estate showed a modest increase of 0.27%. On the other hand, several sectors recorded losses. Consumer Staples had the largest decrease of 1.08%, followed by Energy with a decline of 0.94%. Health Care experienced a decrease of 0.67%, while Materials and Utilities both had losses of 0.59% and 0.39% respectively. Communication Services and Industrials also showed declines of 0.07% and 0.23% respectively. Financials remained unchanged at 0.00%.
Major Pair Movement
The EUR/USD currency pair showed signs of recovery from its 10-week lows on Tuesday, although there is a possibility that it may be influenced by the “sell in May and go away” stock market adage if U.S. data continue to outperform and investors continue to reduce their expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. These rate cut bets had increased during the U.S. regional banking crisis but have been diminishing and could decrease further if the debt limit deal is approved. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate hikes during the banking crisis and debt ceiling issue has eased, contributing to a 4.5% rebound in the dollar index since early May. However, it remains below the peak reached before the banking crisis.
The EUR/USD’s slight gain on Tuesday, despite a more bearish outlook, may only be a temporary bounce driven by month-end and pre-U.S. payroll book-squaring activities. The currency pair experienced a significant bearish reversal in May and is expected to retrace at least a portion of its recovery from 2022-23. The USD/JPY and EUR/JPY pairs both declined, with the yen gaining strength due to stable Japanese government bond yields compared to falling Treasury and bund yields following the debt ceiling deal. The USD/JPY also fell after reaching six-month highs as yen short positions became cautious following a meeting between the U.S. and Bank of Japan, which hinted at the possibility of FX intervention to support the yen if necessary. This intervention is viewed more seriously due to previous interventions in late 2023 that resulted in yen weakness and inflation surpassing the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Sterling gained while the AUD/USD pair declined on concerns related to China.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD Rebounds as USD Weakens, Debt Limit Drama Looms.
The EUR/USD experienced a slight increase, propelling the Euro to its best day in over a week. Despite the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices declining more than expected, the US dollar’s decline against European currencies and the yen provided support. However, the positive news for the European Central Bank regarding inflation may have negative implications for the common currency. Meanwhile, the US faces a potential debt default if Congress fails to pass a bill, adding to growing Republican opposition to the deal. Additionally, economic data shows a drop in the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the unexpected decline of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. Important upcoming releases include the Chicago PMI, ADP Employment Report, and Nonfarm Payrolls report.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is moving higher on Tuesday, rising above the 1.07 level and attempting to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. It is anticipated that the EUR/USD will continue its upward movement today and strive to surpass the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48, indicating that the EUR/USD has returned to a neutral position.
Resistance: 1.0788, 1.0848
Support: 1.0715, 1.0655
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
Gold (XAU/USD)Rebounds as Debt Ceiling Optimism Fades and Market Concerns Mount
Gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced a rebound after hitting a low point for the day, trading near a daily high as optimism in financial markets wavered following news of a debt ceiling agreement to prevent a default in the US. However, sentiment deteriorated after a slow start to the week and concerns about lawmakers from both major parties being reluctant to pass the deal, reigniting fears of a default. Asian and European indexes traded mixed, influencing Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining around 120 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite struggling to maintain stability. Additionally, US CB Consumer Confidence decreased less than expected in May, indicating a somewhat less positive view of current conditions while expectations remained pessimistic.
According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD is moving higher on Tuesday, reaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and touching the resistance level at $1,962. There is a possibility that the XAU/USD will make a slight downward movement and return to the middle of the Bollinger Bands before moving higher again today. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating that the XAU/USD is in a neutral position but slightly bullish.
Sydney, Australia, 29 May 2023 – VT Markets, a leading online broker, today announced a record number of new trading accounts secured within the LATAM region. Following its formal entry into Latin America last year, the company has seen a rapid growth in regional clients, reflecting both the LATAM market’s burgeoning potential and the success of ongoing outreach efforts.
Of these efforts, a notable highlight has been VT Market’s recent participation at Money Expo Mexico 2023. Held from 24–25 May 2023, the much-anticipated event saw VT Markets gain thousands of new account sign-ups, consolidating its growing influence both in and around the country.
Responding to the promising trajectory evident thus far, a VT Markets representative stated: “We are delighted to be making such clear inroads into one of our key strategic markets. With the numerous developments taking place in the region, Latin America is uniquely poised for explosive growth, and we want to be at the forefront of the new financial landscape when it emerges.”
Moving forward, VT Markets looks set to continue its expansion throughout LATAM and beyond. With offices already established across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, the company’s initiatives in the upcoming quarter are expected to amplify its international presence, further reinforcing its status as a truly global broker.
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VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries. Since its inception in 2015, the company has set out to make trading a simple and more accessible experience for everyone. As of today, VT Markets has emerged as one of the world’s top brokers, recently adding a haul of seven awards to its growing list of accolades.
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On Monday, the U.K. markets were closed for a bank holiday, while U.S. markets were closed for Memorial Day. European stocks had a turbulent week, with the Stoxx 600 index hitting an eight-week low but recovering some losses on Friday due to a rally in tech stocks, driven by Nvidia’s impressive results.
In the U.S., political leaders are working to secure bipartisan support for the debt ceiling bill in Congress before the June 5 deadline to prevent a federal default. The U.S. House of Representatives could vote on the bill as early as Wednesday, followed by the Senate later in the week. Market concerns are expected to ease if the debt ceiling deal is approved, allowing investors to shift their focus to the economic outlook and interest rates.
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England were anticipated to pause rate hikes and assess when to change direction, but recent data has complicated the situation for all three institutions. In Asia-Pacific markets, there was a mixed performance, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching its highest levels since July 1990.
Over the weekend, President Joe Biden and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a default. The legislation will be voted on by Congress as early as Wednesday. Both Republican and Democratic support is crucial for the bill to pass. The agreement came just before the “X date” on June 5, which was the earliest potential default date signalled by the Treasury Department. The prolonged negotiations between the White House and congressional leaders had concerned investors, who were already dealing with inflation and a banking crisis.
Investors will also focus on May jobs data to be released on Friday, as well as the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. Additionally, corporate earnings from HP Inc. and Salesforce are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Major Pair Movement
On Monday, the US markets remained closed in observance of Memorial Day, resulting in a subdued atmosphere in the currency market. With limited trading activity, volatility was relatively low. The Dollar Index managed to register a slight rise of 0.05%, indicating a modest strengthening of the US dollar compared to a basket of other major currencies.
Among the currency pairs, the EURUSD experienced a slight decrease of 0.08%, reflecting a slight weakening of the euro against the US dollar. Surprisingly, the GBPUSD pair showed a rise of 0.13%, despite the closure of the UK market. This suggests that market participants may have responded to other factors, such as economic news or geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair saw a minor decline of 0.10%, signaling a marginal decrease in the value of the US dollar compared to the Japanese yen. Conversely, the AUDUSD pair demonstrated an upward movement, rising by 0.26%, indicating a relative strengthening of the Australian dollar against its US counterpart.
In terms of commodities, gold remained relatively stable, exhibiting a marginal increase of 0.05%. The price of gold often serves as a safe-haven asset during uncertain times, and its modest rise may reflect investors seeking stability amid the subdued market conditions. On the other hand, USOUSD (WTI), which represents the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, experienced a decline of 0.16%. This dip could be attributed to various factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, or market sentiment regarding the energy sector. Overall, with the closure of US markets and limited trading activity, the currency and commodity markets displayed muted movements on Memorial Day.
Picks of the Day Analysis
EUR/USD (4 Hours)
EUR/USD weakens against US Dollar amidst data anticipation and market focus on Debt limit suspension.
The EUR/USD pair maintained its position above the previous week’s lows but experienced another daily loss, closing at its lowest level since March 17. Despite staying above 1.0700 and avoiding new monthly lows, the euro weakened against the US dollar during the European session and declined against the pound. The currency lagged other major currencies on Monday, failing to break its negative trend against the greenback. The focus shifted to Spain’s upcoming release of the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May, which holds significance for European Central Bank (ECB) officials and market expectations. Meanwhile, the US dollar posted mixed results, with a slight gain of less than 0.1% against a basket of currencies, reaching its highest close in two months above 104.20.
As market expectations shift from a pause to a potential 25-basis-point increase at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, any decline in the US dollar is expected to be limited. With US markets closed for Memorial Day, Monday saw subdued trading activity, as market participants analyzed the weekend’s agreement in Washington to suspend the debt limit, while awaiting Congressional approval.
Attention also turned to Friday’s US consumer inflation data and the upcoming release of key economic reports throughout the week, including housing data and consumer confidence on Tuesday, as well as the ADP employment report on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing a slow movement on Monday due to holidays in the UK and US markets. This has resulted in a narrower range between the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands.
It is anticipated that the EUR/USD will make a modest upward move today, aiming to reach the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40, suggesting that the bearish sentiment for the EUR/USD may be easing for today.
Resistance: 1.0788, 1.0848
Support: 1.0715, 1.0655
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
Gold (XAU/USD)holds steady amid optimism over US Debt Ceiling agreement.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained steady at $1,943 per troy ounce on Monday, unaffected by holidays in Europe and the United States. Investor optimism prevailed at the start of the week following an agreement on the debt ceiling reached between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. However, the deal still requires approval from Congress, and concerns persist due to the limited time remaining before the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on June 1.
Despite the holiday-induced low trading volumes, stock futures rose, reflecting the positive market sentiment and dampening the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold. With no significant events to monitor at the beginning of the week, the macroeconomic calendar lacks substantial releases, although noteworthy data is expected in the coming days.
On Tuesday, the US will publish the CB Consumer Confidence report, while Germany and the Eurozone will release preliminary estimates of their May Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the following days. Furthermore, the US will unveil the ADP Survey on private job creation ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Friday. These figures hold significance for policymakers and could fuel speculation about future decisions by central banks.
According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD is moving slower on Monday due to the US market holiday. There is a possibility that the XAU/USD will attempt to move higher and reach the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands today. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38, indicating that the XAU/USD is in a neutral position.
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This week’s key economic indicators, including the US Jobs Report and Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, are in the spotlight for the financial sector. These fundamental reports are crucial for traders to navigate the markets and make informed decisions. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
Australia Consumer Price Index (31 May 2023)
The monthly Consumer Price Index in Australia increased 6.3% in the year to March 2023, slowing from a 6.8% rise in the year to February 2023.
The data for April 2023 will be released on 31 May, with analysts expecting a further slowdown, dropping to 6%.
Canada Gross Domestic Product (31 May 2023)
The Canadian economic activity in February edged up by 0.1%, following a 0.6% expansion in January.
For March 2023 data, set to be released on 31 May, analysts expect a 0.1% decline.
US JOLTS Job Openings (31 May 2023)
The number of job openings in the US dropped by 384,000 to 9.6 million in March 2023, the lowest level since April 2021.
Data for April 2023 will be released on 31 May, with analysts expecting another drop to 9.2 million.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (1 June 2023)
Private businesses in the US created 296,000 jobs in April 2023, a significant increase compared to the downwardly revised figure of 142,000 in March 2023.
May 2023 data will be released on 1 June, with analysts anticipating a job creation figure of around 200,000.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (1 June 2023)
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 47.1 in April 2023, up from a three-year low of 46.3 in the previous month.
Analysts predict that the index for May 2023, scheduled for release on 1 June, will be at 48.
US Jobs Report (2 June 2023)
The US Non-Farm Employment Change unexpectedly increased by 253,000 jobs in April 2023, outperforming the expected 180,000 and coming after a downwardly revised 165,000 in March. Concurrently, the unemployment rate in April 2023 dropped to 3.4%, matching a 50-year low previously seen in January.
For May 2023 data, scheduled for release on 2 June, analysts anticipate that Non-Farm Employment will see an addition of 180,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected at 3.5%.
Pandangan 
VT 
