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US stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday, regaining upside momentum and surged in a buy-everything relief rally as market participants rushed to price in a pivot in the US Federal Reserve monetary policy as soon as next December.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 7.7% on a yearly basis in October from 8% in September. The CPI data came in below the market forecast of 8% and spurred bets the Federal Reserve can downshift its aggressive rate-hike path. Therefore, risk-on flows came back to life and provided strong support to the equity markets. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 50 basis points rate hike in December following the upbeat US CPI report.

On the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers remained hawkish amid rising recession fears, as they said on Thursday that there is no time for monetary policy to pause and the central bank needs to raise rates into restrictive territory.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both surged higher on Thursday as the S&P 500 performed its best first-day reaction to a CPI report since at least 2003 when records began. The S&P 500 was up 5.5% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced sharply with a 3.7% gain for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Information Technology sector and the Real Estate sector are the best performings among all groups, rising 8.33% and 7.74%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile surged the most with a 7.5% gain on Thursday and the MSCI World index was up 4.5% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar suffered heavy losses on Thursday, plummeted lower against all of its major rivals and extended its slide to the 108.00 area during the US trading session amid expectations for the US Federal Reserve to pivot. Optimism returned and the risk-on market mood exerted bearish pressure on the safe-haven greenback as the US Treasury yields shed over 20 bps. Increasing speculations that the Fed might slow the pace of rate hikes were further confirmed by investors’ reactions following the CPI data.

GBP/USD soared sharply on Thursday with a 3.15% gain after the cable touched a two-month high at around 1.1680 level following a cooler-than-expected US inflation report. On the UK front, the UK’s GDP for the third quarter is scheduled to release on Friday, which would shed some light on the status of the British economy. Meanwhile, EUR/USD staged a goodish rebound and surged above the 1.0200 mark amid a weaker US dollar across the board. The pair was up almost 2.00% for the day.

Gold rallied higher with a 2.85% gain for the day after shrugging off the soft tone and surged to a two-week high above the $1,755 mark during the late US session, as the broad-based US Dollar weakness acted as a tailwind for the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil edged higher with a 0.75% gain for the day amid mixed demand-supply concerns.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level in nearly two months above 1.018 level as of writing on Thursday, as the data from the US inflation data showed better-than-expected figures. Tuesday’s US economic docket highlights the release of the critical US consumer inflation for October. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI rose by 0.4% during the reported month as compared to the market’s expected 0.6%. The yearly rate, however, rose by 7.7% and is expected to ease to 8.0% in October. EURUSD regains upside traction on the back of the collapse in the dollar after US inflation figures advanced less than estimated in October, which the speculations that the Fed will slow down the pace of hiking rates mounted. In the meantime, the greenback fell sharply below the 109.00 support level and traded in levels last seen back in mid-September in the 108.50 bands.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator surged to 67 as of writing, suggesting that the pair was surrounded by strong positive traction. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was priced above the upper band and the size became larger, which is a signal that the bullish momentum would persist and had the chance to challenge the highest level since mid-September, 1.0198,  in the near term.

Resistance: 1.0198

Support: 0.9996, 0.9961, 0.9741

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD surged in the second half of the day on Thursday and reached its highest level since mid-September above 1.16650 following the release of the softer-than-expected, the pair was pricing at 1.16670 level as of writing.  The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline CPI rose 0.4% in October and the yearly rate eased to 7.7% from 8.2% in September, both missing expectations. Additional details revealed the core inflation, which excluded food and energy prices, decelerated more than anticipated to a 6.3% YoY rate from 6.6% previous. The data adds to the bets that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy tightening and drags the US Dollar to a fresh multi-week low. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the GBPUSD pair’s sharp rally during the early US trading session. However, a bleak outlook for the UK economy might continue to undermine the British Pound. As a result, the focus now shifts to the Preliminary UK Q3 GDP report, due on Friday. The key UK macro data should provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBPUSD pair.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dramatically rallied to 65 figures as if writing, suggesting that the pair amid strong bullish momentum. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was pricing around the upper band and the size between upper and lower bands get larger, indicating that the pair was more favoured to the upside movement in the near future to challenge the highest level since mid-September 1.1738.

Resistance: 1.1438, 1.1623

Support: 1.1146, 1.0953, 1.0797

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold has shrugged off the soft tone seen earlier today to rally $40 higher and reach the mid-range of the $1700s and had been boosted by the broad-based US Dollar weakness following the release of US inflation data. Consumer inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the US, which has set the scene for the US Federal Reserve to ease its aggressive monetary policy path. Tish has spurred risk appetite, hammering the US Dollar and pushing yellow metal higher. US CPI increased by 0.4% in October, unchanged from the previous month, against the market expectations of a 0.6% reading, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year on year, the CPI cooled down to a 7.7% rate, beyond the consensus of 8%, and after an 8.2% increase in September. As for the core part, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflationary trends has eased to 0.3% in October, from 0.6% in September, against expectations of a 0.5% increase. Year on year, the core CPI has retreated to 6.3% from 6.6% in September.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator hugely advanced to 78 figures as of writing, suggesting that the XAUUSD has entered into the overbought zone, and a downward correction could be expected.  As for the Bollinger Bands, the gold was priced around the upper band and the size between upper and lower got larger, which is a signal that the pair remain strong upside tilt. Therefore, we think the gold would move up to challenge the $1765 mark, then correctively rebound to the $1700 to $1710 area in the near term.

Resistance: 1765, 1802

Support: 1703, 1667, 1642

Economic Data

US stocks tumbled heavily on Wednesday, failing to preserve their upside traction and witnessing heavy selling pressure as renewed selling in cryptocurrencies and disappointing earnings weighed on risk sentiment ahead of a key US inflation report.

Global equity markets sensed an intense sell-off amid headwinds of the US mid-term elections outcome and upside risks from the inflationary pressures. Investors’ attention now shifts toward the closely watched US inflation report due Thursday after midterm elections failed to deliver a Republican sweep.

The headline US CPI is expected to decline to 8.0% meanwhile providing clues on the path of Federal Reserve policy tightening. on the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a survey of consumer expectations for inflation, which indicated that Consumers still see inflation at 3% in 3 years and 5.1% over the next 12 months. The higher inflation is hurting the households’ sentiment.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined lower on Wednesday as the S&P 500 ended its three-day rally and Bitcoin dropped below $16,000 to a level not seen since 2020 amid a deepening selloff in cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 was down 2.1% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped lower with a 1.9% loss for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Energy sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector is the worst performing among all groups, losing 4.88% and 3.12%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile slumped the most with a 2.4% loss on Wednesday and the MSCI World index was down 1.6% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced higher on Wednesday, regaining upside momentum and rebounded firmly to the 110.50 area during the US trading session amid an improvement in safe-haven’s appeal. However, the 10-year US Treasury yields witnessed a steel fall below 4.10% as odds are favouring a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its December monetary policy meeting. On Thursday, the US inflation figures will remain in the spotlight.

GBP/USD was sharply down on Wednesday with a 1.61% loss after the cable extended its intra-day slide to the 1.1340 mark amid the market’s anxiety ahead of the US inflation report. On the UK front, Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak will become the first British prime minister in 15 years to attend the British-Irish Council summit on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under pressure and retreated towards the 1.0000 mark amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 0.63% for the day.

Gold dropped with a 0.33% loss for the day after surrendering its entire Wednesday’s gains near the $1,714 mark with the risk sentiment turning sour heading to the close, as the recovering US dollar undermined the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil was sharply down with a 3.46% loss for the day amid rising odds for the higher peak of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s terminal rate.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD remains on the back foot and trades below 1.0050 in the early American session, as the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven flows mid-week with investors awaiting the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. The results of the midterm elections, which are yet to be completed, are showing Democrats doing better than anticipated, taking one more seat in the Senate, lost by the GOP. However, the ruling party lost two seats in the House, securing so far 172 vs 199 for the opposition. On the other hand, the stock market edged lower and struggled for a clear direction. Most European indexes trade in red, although losses are limited. Meanwhile, Wall Street is set to open little changed from Tuesday’s closing levels. Apart from this, investors were keeping their eyes on the US Consumer Price Index to be out on Thursday. Inflation is expected to have risen at an annual pace of 8% in October, easing from 8.2% in the previous month.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator edged lower to 61 figured as of writing, suggesting that the positive traction has turned weaker. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was pricing in the upper area and found support near the 20-period moving average with a smaller size between upper and lower bands, signalling that the price has not found a clear direction and tends to put into sideway in the near-term.

Resistance:  1.0095, 1.0198

Support: 0.9996, 0.9852, 0.9730

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD extended its losses and dropped to a fresh daily low below 1.1400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The risk-averse market environment provides a boost to the safe-haven US dollar as investors await the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. Investors seem to be staying on the sidelines while awaiting the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. The latest news has shown better-than-expected results for the Democrats as the “red wave” announced by the media has not crystallized, and according to Associated Press, Democrats and Republicans have 46 and 47 Senate seats, respectively, with 5 seats remaining out of 35 called up for election. The final results, however, might still take some time, and key issues like the control of Congress and Biden’s next year agenda are still uncertain. Apart from this, the Consumer Price Index data, due on Thursday, might provide further insight into the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate hike. Any surprise in these readings might boost Dollar volatility.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slid to 44 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair was surrounded by bearish transactions. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pounds were priced below the 20-moving average and the size between upper and lower bands get smaller, which is a signal that the pair was more favoured to the downside path.

Resistance: 1.1438, 1.1623

Support: 1.1146, 1.0953, 1.0797

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold edged lower for the day and was trying to stabilise above the $1710 mark as of writing, as the American Dollar regather strength during the US trading session as investors turn cautious amid growing worries about a deeper global economic downturn and uncertainty over the release of US Consumer Price Index and the outcome of the US Midterm Election. The US Dollar attracts some buying and moves away from its lowest level since September 20 touched the previous day, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. Despite rising bets for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of at least a 50 bps rate hike in December. This remains supportive of the elevated US Treasury bond yield and offers some support for the greenback. That said, the cautious market mood underpinned the safe-haven gold and might limit further losses, at least for the time being.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slightly fell back to 64 figured, suggesting that the strong bullish momentum has been softer. As for the Bollinger Bands, the yellow metal was pricing between the upper band and 20-period moving average and put into sideway, which is a signal that the upside tendency is mild and weak. Therefore, if there are any surprising events, the direction would easily change downwardly.

Resistance: 1715, 1725, 1745

Support: 1675, 1641, 1615

Economic Data

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US stocks advanced higher on Tuesday, extending their previous rally and rose for the third day as investors awaited midterm election results and monitored the selloff in crypto markets.

Bitcoin plummeted to a fresh 2022 low at $18,355 amid the collapse of FTX and Binance’s decision to save the crypto exchange. The mini-crash in Bitcoin has weighed on the stock market and caused a sharp drop as investors don’t like to see any disruptions in any risk asset.

On top of that, the results of the US mid-term elections would take a couple of days, which could have long-lasting effects on the American dollar. A history of robust performance following midterm results has provided support to the outlook for equity markets.

In the Eurozone, the euro cheers the upbeat Eurozone data despite some discouraging news, as the European Commission said there is no way to create a gas price cap as requested by EU leaders at the end of October. Eurozone’s Retail Sales rose by 0.4% MoM in September.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both climbed higher on Tuesday as the S&P 500 closed higher with investors eyeing potential gridlock from midterm election results ahead of the release of US inflation figures. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced higher with a 1.0% gain for the day.

Ten out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Materials and Information Technology sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 1.68% and 0.92%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed higher with a 0.8% gain on Tuesday and the MSCI World index was up 0.8% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined lower on Tuesday, remaining under bearish pressure and plummeted to fresh monthly lows against most of its major rivals during the US trading session as the markets await the outcome of the US mid-term elections. The positive tone of US equities and easing government bond yields both exerted bearish pressure on the greenback amid the optimism surrounding US Mid-Term Elections. The important election results would take a couple of days.

GBP/USD edged higher on Tuesday with a 0.26% gain after the cable retreated from a daily high and dropped to the 1.1520 area amid risk-on market sentiment. On the UK front, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the central bank has more to do with tightening the monetary policy. Meanwhile, EUR/USD holds on to its gains ahead of the US close and climbed above the 1.0070 mark amid the market’s optimism surrounding the US election outcome. The pair was up almost 0.54% for the day.

Gold surged with a 2.20% gain for the day after reaching levels that were last seen in September around the $1,714 mark during the late US trading session, as the weaker US dollar across the board helped the precious metal to find demand. Meanwhile, WTI Oil was sharply down with a 3.14% loss for the day amid concerns over China’s oil demand. Crude oil prices have retreated to the $88.50 area.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD managed to climb back to the level above the 1.0000 threshold as the US dollar fell below the 110 level, which is the first time in the last two weeks, during the US trading session. The outcome of the US mid-term elections could have long-lasting effects on the American dollar, particularly if Democrats are not able to retain control of both houses. Republicans do not need much to seize control of Congress. If that’s the case, they may oppose President Joe Biden’s massive expenses, which would exacerbate the risk of an economic downturn. Equities will likely collapse, but it does not seem the dollar could benefit much from it.

In Eurozone, France’s trade deficit widened to € 17.49B in September and Retail Sales in Italy expanded 0.5% MoM in the same month. Meanwhile, price action around the European currency is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. The recent decision by the Fed to hike rates and the likelihood of a tighter-for-longer stance now emerges as the main headwind for a sustainable recovery in the pair.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator continued to advance to around 68 figured closed to 70, overbuy zone, which suggests that the pair was amid strong bullish momentum. As for the Bollinger Bands, the European currency remained firmly above the 20-period moving average, which is a signal that the pair was surrounded by an upside tendency.

Resistance:  1.0000, 1.0094

Support: 0.9813, 0.9730, 0.9636

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD successfully rebounded to a level above 1.5500 as the US dollar struggles to find demand as a haven on Tuesday as risk flows continue to dominate the financial markets, providing a boost to the pair. The pounds were priced at 1.1576 level as of writing. The greenback has dropped across the board in the US trading session, and US stocks advance with all eyes on the outcome of the US mid-term elections.  A hitherto rangebound market has led to a significative US dollar pullback as the first surveys started hinting at a Republican victory. The scenario might create a gridlock in the US Congress that would be welcomed by the market as it will hinder the approval of new regulations.  Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the outcome of the US midterm election is likely to be unveiled later in the week, opening the door for choppy market action in the short term.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator edged lower to 58 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair’s positive traction slowdown. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair kept pricing above the 20-period moving average but was capped by the upper band two times in a row, signalling that the upside momentum is softer. Hence, unless there is a surprising CPI figure, the pound was more favoured to the downside path in the near term.

Resistance: 1.1645, 1.1732, 1.1878

Support: 1.1439, 1.1159, 1.0955

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold surged to above the $1710 mark and aimed for October’s monthly high of $1729.87, with XAUUSD pricing at $1715 marks as of writing. The midterm elections in the United States increased risk appetite and triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury yields during US trading hours, which, in turn, caused a USD sell-off. The US Dollar index (DXY) tumbled by 0.72% for the day and fell to below 109.5 level, which is the first time since 27th October. Investors are likely to refrain from betting on an extended risk rally while awaiting the outcome of the United States (US) midterm elections. If Republicans take the majority in the House and the Senate, additional gains in the US stocks could be witnessed. However, a split Congress could force market participants to adopt a cautious stance amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the fiscal policy. Meanwhile, the expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting remain tilted towards hiking 50 bps, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool at 52%. The speculations for a 75 bps increase are 48%, unchanged from a day ago.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator surged to 74 figures as of writing, which has entered into the overbought zone, suggesting that some selling transactions could be expected. As for the Bollinger Bands, the gold was priced around the upper band and the size of the upper and lower bands became larger, signalling the yellow metal was still surrounded by strong positive traction. Therefore, we think the price would wander around the $1710 area to consume some selling pressure and then move up to challenge the $1725 mark in the near term.

Resistance: 1725, 1745

Support: 1665, 1641, 1615

Economic Data

US stocks rallied higher on Monday, preserving their upside traction for the second day and extending their previous rally ahead of midterm elections and inflation data later this week. The renewed speculation that the US Federal Reserve will ease the pace of quantitative tightening regardless of Chair Jerome Powell´s hawkish comments and easing restrictive measures in China has underpinned the market sentiment. Therefore, the risk-on mood acted as a tailwind for the equity markets on the first day of the week.

Markets focus now shifts to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, which will be closely watched after the core consumer price index rose more than forecast to a 40-year high in September. In the Eurozone, the upbeat EU data and hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) officials have provided support to the shared currency, as they said that the central bank shouldn’t stop rate hikes as long as underlying inflation has not peaked.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both climbed higher on Monday as the S&P 500 gained for a second day ahead of US midterms and closed near session highs with the US dollar falling with Treasuries. The S&P 500 was up 1.0% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced higher with a 1.3% gain for the day. Eight out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Communication Services and Energy sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 1.82% and 1.73%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed higher with a 1.1% gain on Monday and the MSCI World index was up 1.1% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined lower on Monday, extending its previous slide and refreshed daily lows below the 110.10 mark during the US trading session as Wall Street picked up momentum ahead of the close. Market participants believe that a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is certain, making the American currency end up losing further ground against its major rivals. The upbeat market mood spurred by a seasonal US mid-term elections rally has also undermined the greenback.

GBP/USD outperformed on Monday with a 1.19% gain after the cable touched a daily high near the 1.1540 mark amid renewed US dollar weakness. On the UK front, uncertainty in the US political scenario ahead of US midterm elections and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report looming both helped the British pound to find demand. Meanwhile, EUR/USD preserved its upside momentum and climbed above the 1.0000 mark ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales and US inflation data. The pair was up almost 0.60% for the day.

Gold declined with a 0.37% loss for the day after failing to edge higher and retreated to the $1,675 mark during the late US trading session, as the positive market mood is weighing on the safe-haven metal despite the US dollar’s weakness. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped with a 0.89% loss for the day as China stays committed to zero covid policy. Crude oil prices have retreated to the $91.00 area.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD advances for the second session in a row and gains more than two cents since last week’s lows around 0.9730, always against the backdrop of the persistent sell-off in the greenback. The pair was priced at 0.9990 level and aiming to 1.0000 psychological level. Indeed, the dollar remains offered as market participants continue to gauge the mixed results from Friday’s Payrolls and recent Fedspeak leaning towards an impasse in the Fed’s normalization process. The persistence of the positive traction in the pair so far comes in line with the mixed performance in US yields and some loss of momentum in the German 10-year bond yields after two daily advances in a row. On the other side, tepid Chinese data weighed on market sentiment and drew support for the safe-haven greenback, but the US dollar quickly resumed its decline tendency. Despite the number of new coronavirus cases on the rise, investors are once again pricing in easing restrictive measures.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator extended its rally from last week figured 65 as of writing, suggesting the pair remained upbeat market mood and continued to move higher. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was pricing in the upper area and the size between upper and lower bands got larger, which is a signal that the pair was amid strong bullish momentum despite being capped by the psychological 1.0000 level at the time of writing.

Resistance: 1.0000, 1.0094

Support: 0.9813, 0.9730, 0.9636

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD extended its gains during the North American session due to upbeat market sentiment spurred by a seasonal US mid-term elections rally. At the same time, investors brace for the results of the latter and the October US Consumer Price Index. Even though the Bank of England (BoE), said that they would hike rates, but not at the level money market futures priced in, the pair was pricing at 1.15156 as of writing with 1.26% on daily basis. Furthermore, the Guardian reported that British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt was planning to announce 60 billion Pounds of tax rises and at least 35 billion Pounds of spending cuts. The BoE said that they have not taken potential austerity measures or tax increases into account when deciding on the policy action. Hence, the BoE’s dovish stance could be reaffirmed in case the UK government decides to run a tighter fiscal policy. However, the US Dollar market demand is likely to continue to drive the pound’s movement in the near term.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator steadily climbed to 64 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair was amid strong bullish momentum. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price was priced near the upper band. Hence, we think the pounds would confront some resistance around the upper band of 1.1550 and then challenge the 1.1645 level in the near term.

Resistance: 1.1645, 1.1738

Support: 1.1410, 1.1163, 1.0934

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold was put sideways and was priced at $1676.8 marks following touched the daily high of $1681.9 marks. The US dollar started the day on the back foot as the market mood improved at the beginning of the week and ahead of the release of US inflation figures. The US Consumer Price Index is expected to have eased in September from 8.2% YoY to 8% in October. The core reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is foreseen at 6.5%, barely down from 6.6%. Furthermore, a combination of factors underpinned the market risk sentiment. The comments by the Chinese National Health Commission, which has reiterated the Government’s commitment to the Zero-COVID policy and warned about the possibility of severe restrictions ahead, as the winter flu season approaches. However, this has not altered the market mood, as in absence of first-tier macroeconomic releases, the positive Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is still driving market sentiment on Monday.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator edged lower to 64 figures as of writing, suggesting that the positive traction has been lower. As for Bollinger Bands, the yellow metal was stability pricing in the upper area the following retreat back below the upper band, signalling that the pair witnessed some selling transactions around $1684 marks. Therefore, the bullish could persist to challenge the $1700 psychological level if breaking through the $1684 resistance with strong positive traction.

Resistance: 1684, 1701, 1729

Support: 1654, 1641, 1615

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Since the Federal Reserve announced its September rate decision, consumer price growth in the US has accelerated across a wide range of goods and services. This signifies that underlying inflationary pressures are growing stronger.

Fed officials will announce another rate hike in December, with analysts expecting the central bank to also increase interest rates further.

Here’s what to expect for the week ahead:

US Midterm Elections (November 8)

The US will hold its midterm elections on November 8.

Voters will go to the polls to decide who will hold key offices in their respective states and cities. The result of this election is expected to have a major impact on the US economy, and analysts are keeping close tabs on the situation.

US Consumer Price Index (November 10)

US CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in September, the highest reading in three months.

Analysts expect consumer prices to increase by a further 0.7%.

UK Gross Domestic Product (November 11)

UK economic growth slowed by 0.3% month-on-month in August after rising by 0.1% in July.

Analysts expect GDP growth to be 0.1% for September.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (November 11)

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey in the US showed a reading of 59.9.

Economists forecast the index to come in at 60 for this month.

US stocks advanced higher on Friday, regaining upside momentum and ending their previous slide as investors weighed mixed jobs figures and awaited next week’s inflation data for more clues on when the Federal Reserve would be able to slow down its pace of rate hikes. The Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 261,000 in October, which came in much higher than the market expectation of 200,000. However, further details revealed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.7% from 3.5%, signalling that the labour market is easing amid the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle.

Therefore, the theory of slower rate hikes in December has been brought back with signs of a potential easing in the labour market conditions, which further undermined the US dollar. Markets focus now shifts to the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, which will be important to forecast market moves.

In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that they will not let high inflation become entrenched and have to raise rates to levels that will deliver the 2% medium-term inflation target.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both climbed higher on Friday as the S&P 500 regained positive traction and halted a four-day slide. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced higher with a 1.3% gain for the day. All of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Materials sector and the Financials sector are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.41% and 1.87%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed the most with a 1.6% gain on Friday and the MSCI World index was up 1.9% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar tumbled on Friday, witnessing heavy downside momentum and has difficulty finding its feet near the 110.5 level during the US trading session despite the robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The downbeat US unemployment rate report and wage inflation data have shown the first signs of easing in the US labour market, which has tamed expectations of further aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and exerted bearish pressure on the greenback.

GBP/USD surged higher on Friday with a 1.96% gain after the cable extended its rally to daily highs around the 1.1380 mark amid broad-based US dollar weakness. On the UK front, investors are awaiting more developments on tightening fiscal policy measures in Britain led by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Meanwhile, EUR/USD staged a goodish rebound and refreshed its daily high above the 0.9960 mark amid a weaker US dollar and an improvement in market sentiment. The pair was up almost 2.10% for the day.

Gold advanced with a 3.21% gain for the day after soaring to a three-week high above the $1,680 mark during the late US trading session, as the speculations that the Fed would tighten in smaller rate increases have weighed on the US dollar and lifted the Gold higher. Meanwhile, WTI Oil surged with a 5.04% gain for the day as crude oil prices hit three-week highs above the $92.00 area.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has gathered bullish tractions and climbed above 0.9900 level as of writing, reaching fresh weekly highs, as US Dollar stays under strong selling pressure in the risk-positive market environment and fueled the pair’s rally although US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside in October. Earlier, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 261K, compared to the expected 200K. However, a strong NFP report failed to attract buying for the greenback, the DXY index tumbled with 1.75% daily losses and dropped to a level below 111.0, underpinning the pair. Further data saw the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 3.7% (from 3.5%) and the key Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for inflation via wages, increased by 0.4% MoM and 4.7% from a year earlier. Furthermore, the sharp upsurge witnessed in the EURGBP cross on Thursday showed that the Euro(EUR) managed to capture some of the capital outflows out of the British pound. The Bank of England (BOE) said the peak rate is likely to be lower than 5.2% priced into markets and investors assessed that comment as a sign of a less aggressive tightening stance.

From the technical perspective,  the four-hour scale RSI indicator surged to 58 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair amid strong bullish momentum. As for Bollinger Bands, the pair broke through the 20-period moving average and was pricing in the upper area. Therefore, we think the positive traction would persist in the near term to challenge the 1.0000 psychological level.

Resistance:  1.0000, 1.0094

Support: 0.9736, 0.9668, 0.9551

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD managed to advance to the boundaries of 1.1300 the figure at the end of the week, as the market amid improved risk sentiment and further declined the demand for the safe-haven greenback, where the pair was pricing at 1.1285 level as of writing. The broad-based appetite for the risk-associated universe lent the Quid extra legs on Friday and helped the pounds recoup part of the BoE-induced sell-off recorded on Thursday. The US Dollar remains well on the defensive despite the US economy creating more jobs than expected in October (261K), while the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.7%. In the UK docket, the Construction PMI improved from 52.3 to 53.2 in October, while BoE Chief Economist H.Pill suggested earlier in the session that markets should “re-anchor” their expectations around the policy rate following the recent political and financial crisis.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator rebounded to 43 figures as of writing, suggesting that the cables attracted some buying during the RSI stay in the oversold zone. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price was still priced lower than the 20-period moving average, which is a signal that the strength of the rebound is weaker. As a result, we think the pair was more favoured to the downside path and there would be a pullback to test the 1.1163 support.

Resistance: 1.1417, 1.1623

Support: 1.1163, 1.0953, 1.0632

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold continues to extend its rally in the October US Nonfarm Payrolls report afterwards and was priced at $1673 marks, up by more than 2.60% daily, as growing speculations that an uptick in the rate of unemployment might deter the Federal Reserve from aggressive tightening. Following the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls, the US Dollar falls further. The US economy added 261K jobs, above estimates of 200K, but what probably rocked the boat was that the Unemployment Rate increased by 3.7% from 3.5% in the previous month, signalling that the labour market is easing amid the most aggressive Federal Reserve cycle. In the meantime, US Treasury bond yields, particularly the 10-year benchmark note rate, almost parked at 4.156%, unchanged. However, what’s worth noting is the inversion of the 2s-10s yield curve, which is used as a leading indicator of upcoming recessions.  

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator rallied dramatically to 67 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair amid an upbeat market mood with heavy upside pressure. As for the Bollinger Bands, the gold was pricing above the upper band and the size between upper and lower bands became larger, which is a signal that the bullish tendency would last. Hence, we think the gold would manage to stabilise above the $1675 mark and aim for a $1700 psychological level.

Resistance: 1675, 1700, 1725

Support: 1632, 1615, 1600

Economic Data

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