The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) manages the yuan’s daily midpoint, adhering to a floating exchange rate system. The yuan’s value can fluctuate within a range of +/- 2% around this reference rate.

The previous close for the yuan was 7.2580. Recently, the PBOC injected 215 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement, setting the rate at 1.5%.

Additionally, 125 billion yuan is maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan into the economy.

Authorities have opted to increase short-term liquidity, suggesting an effort to ensure ample cash flow in the financial system. The net injection of 90 billion yuan indicates that more funds have been made available than withdrawn, likely with the goal of maintaining stability as broader economic conditions develop. With the reverse repurchase rate holding steady at 1.5%, policymakers appear to be reinforcing their stance without making abrupt adjustments.

Meanwhile, the yuan’s previous close at 7.2580 places it near recent trading levels, meaning there have been no immediate signs of heavy intervention or unexpected volatility. The daily midpoint mechanism remains in place, allowing fluctuations within the ±2% band. If movements approach either extreme, traders will be watching closely for signals on whether authorities choose to step in.

Liquidity injections of this scale often reflect short-term needs rather than long-term shifts. The decision to introduce additional cash into the system could be in response to seasonal demand, upcoming bond settlements, or broader policy adjustments. As a result, it will be necessary to observe upcoming liquidity operations and any changes in guidance from policymakers.

Beyond immediate funding conditions, external factors such as global rate policies and trade dynamics remain in the background. These can influence sentiment and potentially affect how local conditions unfold. While monetary authorities have provided some clarity through recent actions, traders must remain aware of potential fluctuations stemming from external pressures.

Gold prices decreased in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, with the cost at 342.63 AED per gram, down from 344.37 AED on Wednesday. Tola prices also fell to 3,996.43 AED from 4,016.62 AED.

The prices for gold in various units are as follows: 1 gram at 342.63 AED, 10 grams at 3,426.37 AED, and a troy ounce at 10,657.14 AED. Local rates can vary slightly, as prices are based on international rates and updated daily.

Central banks remain the largest holders of gold, adding 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022. Gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty and as a hedge against inflation.

Various factors, such as geopolitical events and changes in interest rates, can impact gold prices. The relationship between gold and the US Dollar is particularly notable; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices.

What we are seeing here is a slight dip in gold prices across various weight measurements in the UAE. The cost for a gram of gold dropped by 1.74 AED within a day, and the price for a tola followed the same pattern, decreasing by just over 20 AED. This reflects the way global trading movements ripple into regional markets, which adjust their prices accordingly. Since the rates are tied to international benchmarks, minor fluctuations like this happen frequently.

Gold remains a key asset for central banks, with reserves growing steadily. The addition of 1,136 tonnes to global central bank reserves in 2022 makes it clear that institutional buyers continue to rely on gold for value storage. This level of accumulation, worth an estimated $70 billion, helps reinforce gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and a protective measure during uncertain economic periods.

What is particularly relevant for traders right now is how external factors influence pricing. Interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and inflation readings all play a role, but perhaps the most direct link is with the US Dollar. Since gold is primarily traded in dollars, any depreciation in the currency tends to push gold prices up, offering potential trading opportunities. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens, we could see prices tighten. Given the latest price movement, it’s worth monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, as any shift in interest rate expectations could nudge prices in either direction.

For those trading derivatives based on gold, keeping a close watch on currency movements could be an effective strategy for the coming weeks. While day-to-day price changes are often small, broader trends can shape longer-term plays. If we see sustained pressure on the dollar, gold could regain some ground. If global interest rate policies remain restrictive, however, the price of gold might continue sliding. A well-balanced approach, with attention to macroeconomic signals, should serve traders well in the near term.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) notes that the Australian dollar (AUD) has encountered difficulties since the election of Donald Trump. Increased trade war risks from Trump are seen as factors affecting the AUD’s trajectory.

China is expected to influence the AUD’s outlook, particularly in response to trade threats. The annual session of China’s National People’s Congress is set to begin, with anticipated government spending aimed at countering the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.

A larger-than-expected stimulus in China may have a positive effect on the AUD, New Zealand dollar (NZD), and Chinese yuan (CNH).

We note that the Australian dollar has struggled since Donald Trump’s election, largely due to market concerns about trade disputes. His stance on tariffs and potential trade restrictions has introduced uncertainty, which tends to weigh on currencies like the AUD.

China remains a key factor in shaping where the AUD trades next. With the upcoming National People’s Congress, all eyes will be on how much Beijing plans to inject into its economy. More government spending could help cushion the negative effects of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports. If policymakers in Beijing decide to introduce broader stimulus measures, this could lend support to not only the AUD but also the NZD and CNH.

Timing is everything. If the stimulus package exceeds expectations, the market reaction is likely to be swift. Traders will be looking at how these funds are deployed—whether through infrastructure projects, tax cuts, or other economic initiatives. A more aggressive approach from Beijing could boost confidence in the region’s financial markets.

On the other hand, if spending measures fall short, concerns around weaker Chinese economic activity could drag down the AUD. A muted response from policymakers would likely reinforce broader fears about slowing global trade, which tends to push investors toward safer currencies.

At the same time, it’s necessary to consider how the U.S. dollar reacts. If Washington escalates trade threats, the USD could strengthen, creating additional pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Any indications of policy shifts—from either side—could lead to sharp price swings.

Markets are also weighing other factors. Interest rate expectations in Australia and the U.S. will continue to shape currency movements. If the Reserve Bank of Australia signals a softer stance while the Federal Reserve leans in the opposite direction, the outcome could further disadvantage the AUD.

Monitoring these developments closely is essential. While China’s response will play an influential role in the next move for these currencies, external factors remain equally important. Traders should be prepared for sudden movements in either direction, depending on how authorities in both Washington and Beijing choose to proceed.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices remain low, around $68.70 per barrel, following expectations of increased supply. The recent announcements about a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and easing sanctions on Russia are contributing to this downward trend.

Economic concerns, particularly regarding tariffs imposed by the US, have further diminished demand. In related news, President Trump plans to revoke Chevron Corp.’s oil license in Venezuela, a move that has drawn criticism from Venezuelan officials.

Meanwhile, the Kurdistan regional government has announced it will resume crude exports, pending approval from Turkey. This agreement follows a ruling from the International Chamber of Commerce regarding past unauthorized exports.

The current market has been marked by falling oil prices, primarily as traders react to expectations of more supply. A potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine has prompted speculation that restrictions could be lifted, allowing more barrels to flow into the market. Similarly, discussions surrounding sanctions suggest the possibility of fewer constraints on Russia’s energy sector. As a result, those holding positions tied to oil prices might need to reconsider their strategies. Lower prices often lead to shifts in positioning, especially for those exposed to futures contracts.

Recent economic developments in the United States have also played a role in dampening demand. Trade policies, particularly tariffs, have altered market sentiment, leading to reduced confidence in energy consumption patterns. When economic uncertainty grows, investors tend to reassess their holdings, and we are already seeing caution reflected in oil derivative markets. If these concerns persist, they could weigh on prices even further, reinforcing the recent downward move.

Elsewhere, decisions involving Venezuela have added another layer of geopolitical influence. Donald’s administration is aiming to tighten its stance, with Chevron now at risk of losing its operational privileges in the region. Venezuelan officials have not welcomed this decision, and there is potential for retaliation or counteractions that could impact oil flows. For traders, such shifts in policy create potential volatility, particularly for those engaged in contracts tied to companies operating in the region.

At the same time, developments involving the Kurdish government could inject new volumes into global markets. A resumption of crude exports is now in motion, awaiting a final decision from the Turkish authorities. This follows legal arbitration concerning past shipments without approval. The potential increase in exports comes as other forces are already driving oil prices lower, and if additional cargoes emerge from this region, it could amplify the pressure on prices even more.

For traders navigating the oil derivatives market, the coming weeks present a period where supply expectations and geopolitical manoeuvres will continue to affect price movements. Those with exposure to futures, options, and other oil-linked products may need to weigh the impact of these shifting dynamics carefully. With multiple regions contributing to the current trend, assessing how these changes interact will be essential for managing risk and identifying new opportunities.

Seven & I has confirmed that it has not received financing from Junro Ito, vice president of 7&i and Ito-Kogyo Co., Ltd., preventing a definitive acquisition proposal from being submitted.

The company is actively considering options to enhance shareholder value and is reviewing various strategic alternatives, including a proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).

A special committee is working with ACT to explore if a feasible proposal can be formulated amidst serious U.S. antitrust challenges.

Currently, there is no actionable proposal from Junro Ito or Ito-Kogyo for Seven & I to evaluate.

Reports indicate that Seven & I plans to abandon management buyout efforts after Itochu’s withdrawal.

Seven & I’s confirmation regarding the absence of financing from Junro adds a layer of certainty to the current situation. Without the necessary funds from him or the company he is associated with, a formal offer remains off the table for now. Meanwhile, discussions persist about various strategies to boost shareholder returns, with one proposal in particular standing out—the one presented by ACT.

The move to assess ACT’s idea comes with its own set of difficulties. A team has been assigned to determine whether the proposed plan can move forward despite regulatory issues in the U.S. While their collaboration suggests a willingness to find a path forward, the reality of the situation means that multiple roadblocks remain. Antitrust concerns can be lengthy and difficult to navigate, making the entire process uncertain. Still, the fact that the conversation continues implies that alternatives are still being weighed.

With nothing formally presented by Junro or Ito-Kogyo, Seven & I is left to focus on its remaining choices. The indication that efforts to pursue a management buyout are being set aside, following Itochu’s exit, suggests that internal solutions may no longer be viable. That development not only reshapes expectations but also shifts attention back to external proposals, such as the one from ACT.

For those tracking the developments closely, understanding the risks tied to potential regulatory delays is just as important as recognising the lack of competition in viable bids. Taken together, these factors shape the short-term outlook as Seven & I moves through this period of continued assessment and negotiation.

The NZD/USD pair is trading around 0.5695 as concerns about US tariffs impact the New Zealand dollar. Traders are awaiting the preliminary GDP reading for Q4, expected later today.

Tariff issues, particularly those related to China, could weaken the NZD further, given China’s role as a major trading partner. Additionally, anticipated rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may exacerbate the NZD’s decline.

Conversely, a decline in the US dollar, prompted by weaker economic data, may reduce losses for the pair. US consumer confidence fell to 98.3 in February, down from 105.3 in August 2021.

At present, the New Zealand dollar sits near 0.5695 against the US dollar, with traders keeping a close eye on tariff developments and upcoming economic data. These factors will shape the currency’s trajectory over the coming days, offering both risks and potential short-term opportunities.

Concerns surrounding US trade policies, particularly those affecting China, continue to weigh on the currency. Given China’s position as a primary export destination, any disruption in trade flows would dampen sentiment further. Meanwhile, expectations of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank appear to be driving a more cautious approach. A less attractive yield outlook makes the currency less desirable for investors, potentially leading to further weakness.

On the other side, the US dollar’s recent struggles could provide some relief. Consumer confidence has been sliding, suggesting that economic momentum in the US may be waning. A reading of 98.3 in February, down from 105.3 in August 2021, indicates that American households are becoming more wary of future conditions. If this pattern continues, markets could begin pricing in more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve in response, weighing on the dollar.

Looking ahead, traders should pay close attention to any shifts in global trade sentiment and policy signals from central banks. Today’s preliminary GDP data for New Zealand has the potential to shake things up. A stronger-than-expected figure might temporarily lift the currency, but concerns surrounding future monetary policy will likely keep enthusiasm in check. Likewise, any indication that the US economy is slowing faster than anticipated could trigger downside pressure on the dollar.

For those navigating the derivative space, these developments call for adaptability. Short-term fluctuations may present tactical trading opportunities, but the broader narrative remains tied to central bank actions and economic releases. Staying ahead of these factors will be key in managing exposure effectively.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) will close over 120 offices that provide taxpayer assistance, as reported by the Washington Post.

This change is part of a plan revealed in a letter from the U.S. General Services Administration.

Under the Trump administration, efforts to improve efficiency within the tax agency are leading to these office closures.

This decision means that individuals who rely on in-person assistance for tax-related matters will have fewer places to turn to. The reduction in offices lines up with broader efforts to make government operations more cost-effective, though it also raises questions about how it may affect those who need direct support when dealing with tax issues.

We have seen similar moves in the past, where agencies have aimed to modernise by shifting more services online or consolidating physical locations. While this can lower costs and streamline operations, it often comes with challenges for those who either prefer or require face-to-face interactions to resolve their concerns.

Steven Mnuchin has previously voiced the need for a more efficient system, arguing that reducing unnecessary spending can lead to better overall service. However, critics argue that not everyone has equal access to digital alternatives, which could leave some taxpayers feeling underserved.

Jerome Powell’s recent comments on economic conditions suggest that government strategies will need to adapt to changing financial realities. Whether this shift in tax office availability has broader effects remains to be seen, but we should stay aware of how it may influence taxpayer behaviour.

In the coming weeks, we need to be mindful of how reduced in-person assistance could shape decision-making. Market participants who take regulatory shifts into account may find themselves reassessing assumptions about policy directions. Understanding how public services are altered under these efficiency measures can provide valuable insights into broader financial trends, including how resources are allocated and whether further adjustments might follow.

Australia’s private capital expenditure decreased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, falling short of expectations set at 0.8%. This decline indicates a contraction in business investment activity during this period.

The data reflects challenges facing the economy. As businesses reconsider their spending strategies, it may impact future economic growth and productivity levels.

The overall outlook on capital expenditure remains cautious amid various economic headwinds. Analysts will be monitoring these trends closely to assess potential implications for the broader economy.

A decline of 0.2% in Australia’s private capital expenditure during the fourth quarter suggests that businesses exercised restraint in their investment decisions. This was not in line with the expected growth of 0.8%, which hints at a more cautious approach to spending. A contraction in business investment often aligns with concerns about profitability, demand, or broader economic stability.

When companies scale back on capital expenditure, it raises questions about future productivity and expansion. Persistent caution could weigh on job creation, economic output, and confidence in multiple sectors. Given these conditions, it would not be unusual to see adjustments in monetary policy expectations or financing conditions, as weaker investment can influence inflationary pressures and overall growth.

Philip noted that inflation risks remain and that they require careful attention. He mentioned that while there has been substantive progress on bringing inflation lower, certain challenges persist. This suggests that central bank officials remain watchful, even if no immediate policy shifts are anticipated.

Michelle provided a perspective on the broader economic direction, stating that rates would need to stay at their current levels for an extended period. She indicated that risks to projections are balanced but that incoming data could shift the outlook. A neutral stance for now does not imply inaction should conditions begin to change.

Peter brought attention to the possibility of financial conditions easing too soon, warning against premature assumptions about monetary policy adjustments. If market expectations diverge too much from central bank guidance, it could lead to volatility, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

For those who trade derivatives, these developments present both opportunities and challenges. Predicting how interest rate expectations will evolve in response to economic data remains vital, as misjudging central bank intentions could result in rapid market moves. A measured approach to positioning is advisable given that policymakers have left room for adjustments should inflation or economic activity deviate from current expectations.

There has also been commentary on China’s economic performance, which remains an important factor for regional demand. Economic weakness in China may dampen sentiment, particularly for industries reliant on trade dynamics. If conditions there deteriorate further, expectations for global growth could shift accordingly.

With many moving parts influencing markets, staying attentive to forward-looking indicators will be key. Capital expenditure trends, central bank signals, and external economic developments all intertwine to shape investment outlooks. A disciplined assessment of these elements will help navigate potential movements in asset pricing and risk perception.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that April 2 will serve as the baseline for reciprocal tariff data. He emphasised that Chinese vehicles will not be permitted into the United States.

Concerns about China were expressed, indicating tensions between the two nations. Meanwhile, Trump’s remarks on tariffs reiterated his previous positions.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been postponed until April 2, despite an earlier commitment to proceed in early March. Trump also announced that 25% tariffs on European automobiles and various goods may be implemented soon, cautioning against possible EU retaliation.

Howard made it clear that the United States will rely on April 2 as the reference point for tracking tariff measures between nations. His remarks on Chinese vehicles were direct—such imports will not be allowed. This stance leaves little ambiguity regarding the administration’s policy towards China’s automotive sector.

The concerns raised about China reflect broader apprehensions regarding its trade influence. While direct confrontations have not been confirmed, the tone of these discussions suggests ongoing friction. At the same time, Donald’s statements on tariffs were largely in line with what has been said before, reinforcing his established views rather than introducing new approaches.

The decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico moves a previously scheduled action back by about a month. This allows a short window for further negotiations or adjustments, though no indication has been given that the administration is reconsidering its approach. Meanwhile, European automakers and exporters now face the prospect of 25% duties on their goods, including an array of products beyond automobiles. Such measures, if enacted, would inevitably invite a response from the EU, as Donald himself acknowledged.

For those navigating these shifts, short-term strategies need to reflect the likelihood of tariffs influencing market movements. Expectations surrounding April 2 should already be factored into planning, given that it serves as a reference point for key decisions. Traders should anticipate knock-on effects beyond single sectors, as tariff measures tend to ripple across related industries.

Reactions from global markets will hinge on further clarifications or shifts in policy. European manufacturers face uncertain weeks ahead, with investors monitoring whether escalations materialise. Any response from Brussels could alter expectations quickly. At the same time, North American exporters now have a brief delay, but there is little room to assume this postponement signals a change in course.

With these policy measures shaping market direction, those involved in derivatives must remain positioned for fluctuating prices. Statements from officials will continue to influence sentiment, and even minor changes in rhetoric may affect positioning and hedging strategies. Observing not only formal policy announcements but also informal remarks will be necessary, given how past signals have shaped price movements. April 2 now looms as a defining moment for multiple sectors.

EUR/USD decreased by 0.25% following renewed tariff threats from US President Trump, who announced plans for a 25% tariff on European goods. These tariffs will join those proposed for Canada and Mexico, effective from April 2nd.

The volatility of the Euro increases as the list of nations not facing tariffs shrinks, amid fears of a trade war. Key US data is anticipated this week, including the GDP growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2024 and Durable Goods orders for January.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation report on Friday will be closely watched, with inflation indicators rising at the start of 2025. The EUR/USD pair remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.0450, although resistance is expected from the 1.0550 level.

The Eurozone includes 19 EU countries using the Euro, which is the second most traded currency globally, making up 31% of foreign exchange transactions in 2022. The European Central Bank manages monetary policy, influencing the Euro through interest rate adjustments.

Economic indicators such as GDP and the Trade Balance directly affect the Euro’s value. Stronger economic data typically strengthens the currency by attracting investment and prompting the ECB to raise interest rates, while weaker data may have the opposite effect.

This modest dip in the EUR/USD exchange rate means market sentiment is adjusting to broader trade concerns. With Donald Trump proposing 25% tariffs on European products, alongside measures targeting Canada and Mexico, the pressure on the Euro is mounting. These policies are set to take effect from April 2nd, narrowing the group of tariff-exempt nations. As a result, traders are recalibrating positions, aware that ongoing trade tensions may lead to larger market swings.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on upcoming US economic reports that could influence currency pairs. Fourth-quarter GDP figures and January’s Durable Goods orders will provide more clues about the strength of the US economy. If economic growth remains robust, the US dollar may find more support, keeping the Euro under pressure.

Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation report is another key event, given that earlier data has already pointed to rising inflation as 2025 begins. Should inflation come in hotter than expected, it could fuel more speculation that the Federal Reserve may remain firm on interest rates. That, in turn, would make dollar-denominated investments more attractive, reinforcing the downward pressure on the Euro.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, currently at 1.0450. However, there is strong resistance around 1.0550. If the pair struggles to break above this level, it may signal further downside momentum in the near term.

Given that the Euro is the world’s second most traded currency, structural considerations also play a role in price movements. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of total foreign exchange transactions, reinforcing its global importance. The European Central Bank remains a central force in determining the value of the Euro, especially through interest rate decisions. If economic conditions support a more hawkish stance, we might see some support for the currency. Conversely, weaker indicators could renew downward pressure.

Economic performance still holds weight in the bigger picture. Stronger trade balances and GDP growth tend to attract investors, which can lift the currency and possibly drive the ECB to adjust rates accordingly. On the other hand, weaker figures can deter buyers, increasing the odds of further declines.

For traders focusing on derivative markets, these upcoming reports may set the tone for volatility levels. Any deviations from forecasts could trigger abrupt price swings, influencing both short-term trading strategies and longer-term positioning. Being prepared for shifts in momentum will be key.